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Old 7th May 2009, 08:59
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racedo
 
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The full year results in early June will addup the writedown for the shareholdings in Aer Lingus for each quarter. It would be rougthly €200 million.
Already known about and reflected within share price and they have stated their position so it should hold no surprises to anybody there. 4th Quarter write down is probably 130 M.

They also may need to writedown the values of planes expected to be sold.
Again they have already taken write downs BUT have also taken deposits from future buyers.

I think most sold now were bought as part of the post 9/11 contract then original prices were pretty low but given you buy for $22M sell for $8M and have sweated them for 6-7 years then you have more than paid for it.


As Easyjet reported this week, it is a very hard time to sell planes and the airlines who are buying are having problems raising cash. Also the weak pound will reduce the income when converted into euros.
As they buy Fuel in dollars and Aircraft in dollars so Sterling being weak is not really a problem as there is a greater benefit in a weak dollar.

Assumming you contracted to buy a 737 for $22 M in 2003 for delivery in 2009 then in 2003 prices it was 20.9M Euros but if you paid on delivery it would have cost 15.5 M Euros (ok you pay a deposit and stage payments over the yearsand hedged) but clearly you will have enjoyed a huge benefit as the dollar has got weaker.

It is also very likely that may of the 5.3 million seats sold were dumped onto the market at near zero cost. many will end up in no-shows. See what happens on the 2nd June.
Has no impact on profits announced in June as results are to 31st of March but airline does make a profit from no shows as tickets are non refundable and majority of people will have paid with debit / credit card.

Last edited by racedo; 7th May 2009 at 09:09.
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