Ryanair - 6
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come on anna list, do you really believe Ryanair bull****???
If i can add something to this, Anna_List is one of the few posters here that often has concrete information on stuff that is actually going on. Whether Ryanair said in previous financial period a base was performing well or not it was a confidence building measure to the financial world. Besides Valencia would be fantastic in the summer season anyway so that may have been true at that time. It is the lean winter period that is the real challenge at these airports in Spain.
I do believe that Shannon is a loss maker for Ryanair, and the return of Aer Lingus to the Heathrow route will cause more pain, and will Ryanair drop back the frequency to pre Shannon Heathrow closure levels in 2007?
EI-BUD
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Not just Niagara but BWI !
A meeting between James walsh [BWI's deputy executive] and Ryanair has been pencilled in for late May 2009 to discuss potential opportunities. "We're excited for sure," said James Walsh.
"We believe we're the right airport for this type of service and that we can offer an attractive package to Ryanair."
BWI was one of the airports mentioned by O'Leary [late 2008] as a possible destination for Ryanair's transatlantic services from Europe. "We have begun working on a plan.
We're going to be sitting down with Ryanair staff in late May and we'll look at what markets are feasible and at cost structures," Walsh said
.
"We believe we're the right airport for this type of service and that we can offer an attractive package to Ryanair."
BWI was one of the airports mentioned by O'Leary [late 2008] as a possible destination for Ryanair's transatlantic services from Europe. "We have begun working on a plan.
We're going to be sitting down with Ryanair staff in late May and we'll look at what markets are feasible and at cost structures," Walsh said
.
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h&s
You are right in many of your comments - however when you look at the facts, Ryanair are the only airline currently expanding in Europe. They are the only airline who are increasing the PAX figures and one of the very few who will return to profit very quickly, if not so already. Pretty good for a low brain airline eh?
Seriously - attacks on airlines such as Ryanair should be left away from threads like this. Ryanair are and will remain europe's number one low fares airline - as much as people dislike it, im afraid it is the clear truth. Yes they make mistakes - but all business' do this. At least with Ryanair they know how to fix them quickly. Its all very easy for everyone to sit around and pass comments without having any knowledge of how to run a success airline business.
You are right in many of your comments - however when you look at the facts, Ryanair are the only airline currently expanding in Europe. They are the only airline who are increasing the PAX figures and one of the very few who will return to profit very quickly, if not so already. Pretty good for a low brain airline eh?
Seriously - attacks on airlines such as Ryanair should be left away from threads like this. Ryanair are and will remain europe's number one low fares airline - as much as people dislike it, im afraid it is the clear truth. Yes they make mistakes - but all business' do this. At least with Ryanair they know how to fix them quickly. Its all very easy for everyone to sit around and pass comments without having any knowledge of how to run a success airline business.
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Hello h&s,
You make some interesting points there. If you don't mind, I'd like to add a few of my own comments.
- Do I believe FR bull? No, I don't. Fair point - you're quite right, I should have written something like "Ryanair have already acknowledged... ... but take that with an enormous pinch of salt". I'm a born sceptic and tend not to believe anything without proof. The trouble is, that I don't have any proof for the number of bases that are loss making (and if I did, I wouldn't post it here), so in the absence of this information, I will happily bow to your superior knowledge.
- Bournemouth to Scotland. I was a bit surprised when FR announced double daily BOH-EDI alongside the double daily BOH-PIK. In many cases these days, FR's biggest competitor is themselves and they will have to be increasing careful not to destroy their own markets. In November, the average flown LF on BOH-PIK was a woeful 42%, with BOH-EDI managing 51%. Yes, November is a weak month, but even so, that doesn't look too clever. More widely, it will be interesting to see the impact that the EDI base has on PIK because there is some evidence of an overlap. PIK-MRS has taken a pasting (average flown LF down by over 10 percentage points compared to last year) since EDI-MRS opened.
- It's interesting that you mention VLC-SCQ because the flown loads on that route have been very impressive (average of 81% this year), so if this route wasn't making money then something must have gone very wrong. On the other hand, you're quite right to say that VLC had a lot of very weak routes, particularly in that first winter: BLL, BSL, LPL, MST and as you say, OPO and MLA too.
- Fuerteventura is another interesting case because the loads have been very decent (DUB and LPL averaged about 90% this year). FR decided to make their point about lack of support from the local authorities (see above point about bs), but were they really not making money on these routes with planes to FUE on average 85% full over the entire year? If they weren't making money then, again, something has gone very wrong.
- BRE seems to be looking a lot better recently, admittedly after a lot of tinkering of routes. I agree that it was looking like a complete turkey for quite a long time. By comparison, some of the UK regional bases have been looking very poor this autumn and the new domestic routes from REU got off to a very dodgy start.
- MAD is another strange one. I agree that it looks as though they made a bit of a mess of it. They've now dropped most of the routes that the base opened with (SNN, MMX, BOH, FAO, TRF, EMA, GSE, BLL) and have replaced them with the likes of BGY, STN and this recent assault on the domestic market with multiple dailies to SDR, GRO, PMI, VLC, VLC and SCQ. It'll be interesting to see whether this works.
They've certainly made mistakes, but then we're all very wise with the benefit of hindsight (oil hedging anyone?). To call them 'low brain' seems a little bit harsh, but in any case I'm sure they will continue to make mistakes and will continue to amuse us with their press releases. I think I'm right in saying that the Q3 results are due in early Feb, so I'm looking forward to seeing Mystic MOL's outlook and what the cash pile is looking like.
You make some interesting points there. If you don't mind, I'd like to add a few of my own comments.
- Do I believe FR bull? No, I don't. Fair point - you're quite right, I should have written something like "Ryanair have already acknowledged... ... but take that with an enormous pinch of salt". I'm a born sceptic and tend not to believe anything without proof. The trouble is, that I don't have any proof for the number of bases that are loss making (and if I did, I wouldn't post it here), so in the absence of this information, I will happily bow to your superior knowledge.
- Bournemouth to Scotland. I was a bit surprised when FR announced double daily BOH-EDI alongside the double daily BOH-PIK. In many cases these days, FR's biggest competitor is themselves and they will have to be increasing careful not to destroy their own markets. In November, the average flown LF on BOH-PIK was a woeful 42%, with BOH-EDI managing 51%. Yes, November is a weak month, but even so, that doesn't look too clever. More widely, it will be interesting to see the impact that the EDI base has on PIK because there is some evidence of an overlap. PIK-MRS has taken a pasting (average flown LF down by over 10 percentage points compared to last year) since EDI-MRS opened.
- It's interesting that you mention VLC-SCQ because the flown loads on that route have been very impressive (average of 81% this year), so if this route wasn't making money then something must have gone very wrong. On the other hand, you're quite right to say that VLC had a lot of very weak routes, particularly in that first winter: BLL, BSL, LPL, MST and as you say, OPO and MLA too.
- Fuerteventura is another interesting case because the loads have been very decent (DUB and LPL averaged about 90% this year). FR decided to make their point about lack of support from the local authorities (see above point about bs), but were they really not making money on these routes with planes to FUE on average 85% full over the entire year? If they weren't making money then, again, something has gone very wrong.
- BRE seems to be looking a lot better recently, admittedly after a lot of tinkering of routes. I agree that it was looking like a complete turkey for quite a long time. By comparison, some of the UK regional bases have been looking very poor this autumn and the new domestic routes from REU got off to a very dodgy start.
- MAD is another strange one. I agree that it looks as though they made a bit of a mess of it. They've now dropped most of the routes that the base opened with (SNN, MMX, BOH, FAO, TRF, EMA, GSE, BLL) and have replaced them with the likes of BGY, STN and this recent assault on the domestic market with multiple dailies to SDR, GRO, PMI, VLC, VLC and SCQ. It'll be interesting to see whether this works.
They've certainly made mistakes, but then we're all very wise with the benefit of hindsight (oil hedging anyone?). To call them 'low brain' seems a little bit harsh, but in any case I'm sure they will continue to make mistakes and will continue to amuse us with their press releases. I think I'm right in saying that the Q3 results are due in early Feb, so I'm looking forward to seeing Mystic MOL's outlook and what the cash pile is looking like.
Last edited by anna_list; 11th Jan 2009 at 14:58. Reason: I've just seen how much I've written, which is really sad - feel free to ignore me!
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BOH-EDI managing 51%. Yes, November is a weak month, but even so, that doesn't look too clever
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Fr - Fco?
A couple of points, the main one is a posting on UK forum quoting an
Italian forum claiming that slots are in for two based units at Rome FCO,
has anyone got any more information on this?
My interest is due to the fact that one flight mentioned is daily bhx, which is certainly a "missing" route for bhx now that baby pulled their service but again it would part-compete with EMA (see anna_list's comments). The EMA-SNN was destroyed (load factor wise at least) once BHX-SNN started although some quoted that yields were never very good even after it recovered from its poor start.
As for another comment "some of the UK regional bases have been looking very poor", are you including BHX in that?
Not that I am disagreeing, as prices throughout November, December and the start of January have been rock bottom (along with some load factors) but some of their route choices have defied logic.
I realise that part of the reason was probably due to BHX leading them away (at first) from competitor's existing services and the need to "shovel pax" through certain airports but there were better pickings to be had.
Sounds like a busy week coming up.
Pete
Italian forum claiming that slots are in for two based units at Rome FCO,
has anyone got any more information on this?
My interest is due to the fact that one flight mentioned is daily bhx, which is certainly a "missing" route for bhx now that baby pulled their service but again it would part-compete with EMA (see anna_list's comments). The EMA-SNN was destroyed (load factor wise at least) once BHX-SNN started although some quoted that yields were never very good even after it recovered from its poor start.
As for another comment "some of the UK regional bases have been looking very poor", are you including BHX in that?
Not that I am disagreeing, as prices throughout November, December and the start of January have been rock bottom (along with some load factors) but some of their route choices have defied logic.
I realise that part of the reason was probably due to BHX leading them away (at first) from competitor's existing services and the need to "shovel pax" through certain airports but there were better pickings to be had.
Sounds like a busy week coming up.
Pete
Last edited by OltonPete; 11th Jan 2009 at 15:38. Reason: added text
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Although I've wondered how much research actually goes into Ryanair's route planning, I think its entry into the Spanish domestic market is interesting and may work. Fares on routes such as Madrid-Alicante and Madrid-Valencia have historically been high but, with the Spanish economy in trouble and fast rail links being constructed, Ryanair's move may have come too late. Iberia has responded by offering breathtakingly low (for them) fares on selected flights, presumably to hit Ryanair. (Personally, I'd choose Ryanair over Iberia any day, although the fact that the latter uses the gorgeous Terminal 4 at Barajas is tempting!) The truly huge market is, of course, Madrid-Barcelona, but air travel on this route seems to have been impacted by high speed rail (leading Spanair to link with Renfe and offer joint air-rail tickets). Nevertheless, these trains are expensive so if Ryanair could find some way to fly to el Prat and give up on pretending that Girona and Reus are "Barcelona" airports......
P.S. As I've written before, Ryanair should look at Salamanca. There're a number of different markets (such as students and tourists) and the fares charged currently to fly to/from the city are astronomical.
P.S. As I've written before, Ryanair should look at Salamanca. There're a number of different markets (such as students and tourists) and the fares charged currently to fly to/from the city are astronomical.
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The Mtow from the Ryanair 737 is to low to make these routes from Ireland to the USA. Ryanair did not choose for that option to have a take off weight above 74990
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acording to this:
Boeing: Commercial Airplanes - 737 - Range Charts
It should be possible from Shannon!
Boeing: Commercial Airplanes - 737 - Range Charts
It should be possible from Shannon!
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Originally Posted by babemagnet
acording to this:
Boeing: Commercial Airplanes - 737 - Range Charts
It should be possible from Shannon!
Boeing: Commercial Airplanes - 737 - Range Charts
It should be possible from Shannon!
Read my lips, guys. Ryanair is not going to fly transatlantic with 737-800s. (To be accurate, MOL has said that Ryanair is not going to fly transatlantic at all, and that if it happens it'll be a separate company - but I repeat: separate company or not, they will not use 737-800s. Deal with it.)
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the HHN tangle
Not much details as yet, but to my knowledge Fraport has just expressed its desire to... get rid of Hahn Airport altogether (Fraport owns 65%). Will the local government be able to cut this Gordian knot? Very interesting times ahead, apparently.
eu01 - something more dramatic than that. Reuters reports:
Shares in Fraport (FRAG.DE) are 3.9 percent lower, making them one of the biggest decliners among German mid-cap stocks .MDAXI, on reports the airport operator may close down its Hahn airport soon.
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But this are only rumours. FRAPORT will sell its 65%, the local government would buy it.
AZ have to give up slots at FCO because of the merger with AP. FR will have this slots (altogether only 14). So HHN based aircrafts could quickly moved to the south.
From a austrian newspaper:
derStandard.at
For MOL everything is clear: FR operates from 7 italian airports (bases) and will increase the total number of passengers to 15m per year. Flights from FCO to London, Paris, Bergamo and Trapani. This should be announced tomorrow and tomorrow also the announcement what will happen at HHN.
EDIT: FR slots at FCO for summer (not for sure!):
STN 3 daily, DUB 2 daily, BGY 2 daily, TPS daily, SUF daily, BVA daily, BHX daily, EIN daily, GRX daily, REU daily, NRN 4x weekly, KTW 3x weekly, CRL 3x weekly
AZ have to give up slots at FCO because of the merger with AP. FR will have this slots (altogether only 14). So HHN based aircrafts could quickly moved to the south.
From a austrian newspaper:
derStandard.at
For MOL everything is clear: FR operates from 7 italian airports (bases) and will increase the total number of passengers to 15m per year. Flights from FCO to London, Paris, Bergamo and Trapani. This should be announced tomorrow and tomorrow also the announcement what will happen at HHN.
EDIT: FR slots at FCO for summer (not for sure!):
STN 3 daily, DUB 2 daily, BGY 2 daily, TPS daily, SUF daily, BVA daily, BHX daily, EIN daily, GRX daily, REU daily, NRN 4x weekly, KTW 3x weekly, CRL 3x weekly
Last edited by Seljuk22; 12th Jan 2009 at 14:08.
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FR slots at FCO for summer (not for sure!)
- Lamezia
- Katowice
I imagine some routes would be simply "moved" from Ciampino to Fiumcino.
But others, like Charleroi, could possibly operate to both Roman airports.
Aside: Anyone know when Rome Viterbo airport is going to be ready?
I don't claim to be a genius, but can someone tell me if I've got this right....
In the past, Ryanair would get airports in different cities to compete against each other for the privilege of Ryanair flying there. Now they have gone a step further, and made one organisation want to pay another for the privilege of owning a loss-making airport to which Ryanair flies, just to ensure that the airport maintains that privilege.
Somebody in Dublin is laughing, and something seems to have gone very wrong with economics....
In the past, Ryanair would get airports in different cities to compete against each other for the privilege of Ryanair flying there. Now they have gone a step further, and made one organisation want to pay another for the privilege of owning a loss-making airport to which Ryanair flies, just to ensure that the airport maintains that privilege.
Somebody in Dublin is laughing, and something seems to have gone very wrong with economics....
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Actually for the state of Rhineland-Palatinate, it is cheaper to subsidize HHN and then to cash the tax from all the people working there than to have them all unemployed (talks are about 6000 - 8000 jobs which will get lost if HHN looses FR). In this case the state government will have to pay lots of dole money and will not get any tax back.
The Hunsrück hills, where HHN is sited, where always a rather poor and backward region. The main road connections were only built by the Nazis in the 1930s, and not to please the locals, but to support the German invasion of France.
Up to the end of WW2 local economy was small scale farming (mainly cattle breeding on the rocky fields and woodcutting). Many locals left the region to look for work in the prosperous Rhine-Main area.
During cold war, a lot of locals used to work for the American forces, but most lost their jobs when the cold war ended and the Americans closed their bases.
Opening HHN was one of the best things the state government ever did and it is picking up on cargo traffic.
BTW, when the Americans left HHN, it was essentially a runway and a tower. Almost all buildings used today have been built after the Americans left (and most of those left by the Americans are so badly contaminate with asbestos that they are dangerous to live in. They will have to be torn down at high expenses, same as the various aircraft shelters cluttering the airfield. AFAIK, the removal of one shelter costs about 100.000 Euros), with German tax money (I seriously doubt that FR invested anything serious into HHN). FR, as important as they are for HHN, managed in the past to drive several other airlines, which wanted to become established in HHN and would give the airport another source of income, out, so that they would have total control of the passenger side of operations. This way FR managed to obtain an almost total monopoly on passenger operations and can make demands.
Concerning FR stating that HHN was making a loss for them, I fly quite often with FR (fastest connection for me to visit my girlfriend). I have to say that the aggressive style of advertisement FR use in their aircraft for onboard sales is considered to be very annoying by me and most German passengers. For myself, if I get annoyed by advertisement, I refuse to buy anything. I have talked to people e.g. from Poland and other places on the continent and they agree.
Ryanair's advertisements seem to work in Ireland and the UK, but there is definitely a difference in mentality, which has to be taken into account to sell stuff on the continent.
The Hunsrück hills, where HHN is sited, where always a rather poor and backward region. The main road connections were only built by the Nazis in the 1930s, and not to please the locals, but to support the German invasion of France.
Up to the end of WW2 local economy was small scale farming (mainly cattle breeding on the rocky fields and woodcutting). Many locals left the region to look for work in the prosperous Rhine-Main area.
During cold war, a lot of locals used to work for the American forces, but most lost their jobs when the cold war ended and the Americans closed their bases.
Opening HHN was one of the best things the state government ever did and it is picking up on cargo traffic.
BTW, when the Americans left HHN, it was essentially a runway and a tower. Almost all buildings used today have been built after the Americans left (and most of those left by the Americans are so badly contaminate with asbestos that they are dangerous to live in. They will have to be torn down at high expenses, same as the various aircraft shelters cluttering the airfield. AFAIK, the removal of one shelter costs about 100.000 Euros), with German tax money (I seriously doubt that FR invested anything serious into HHN). FR, as important as they are for HHN, managed in the past to drive several other airlines, which wanted to become established in HHN and would give the airport another source of income, out, so that they would have total control of the passenger side of operations. This way FR managed to obtain an almost total monopoly on passenger operations and can make demands.
Concerning FR stating that HHN was making a loss for them, I fly quite often with FR (fastest connection for me to visit my girlfriend). I have to say that the aggressive style of advertisement FR use in their aircraft for onboard sales is considered to be very annoying by me and most German passengers. For myself, if I get annoyed by advertisement, I refuse to buy anything. I have talked to people e.g. from Poland and other places on the continent and they agree.
Ryanair's advertisements seem to work in Ireland and the UK, but there is definitely a difference in mentality, which has to be taken into account to sell stuff on the continent.