Ryanair - 6

[en2r]

Aer Lingus bid surely dead (again!)

The 2nd Aer Lingus bid is now surely dead. When the deadline for acceptances closed yesterday Ryanair had received acceptances from 29.83% of Shareholders. Doesn't sound too bad until you discover this includes Ryanair's existing shareholding of 29.82%. That means just 0.01% of Aer Lingus shareholders voted to accept the deal. This surely must be a major embarassment for MOL. Howver he has extended the deadline for a further 5 weeks until February 13th. Maybe he might reach 0.02% by then!!

[Bearcat]

there's a lot of bar room postering going on....i detect a brawl shortly.

[racedo]

Wouldn't be so sure the bid is dead. Seems lots of stuff coming out about the compensation plan thought up by the board to look after themselves in event of a takeover.......really engenders employee loyalty. Especially given the boards exit from Shannon and now return, BFS and now cut back and idea that you can compete out of Gatwick where EZY and others will relish the fight.

Expecation is price will go up as price was always low, however if bid fails then share price will collapse as no other bids on the horizon and was already at €1 before bid so expect it to go below that. EI is in a corner and its main market is in major recession.....expect 2009 to be bad.

Faced with that you many find some of the big groups decide to cut a better deal at or around €2.

Funny the so called White Knight 24 year old investor seems to have died a quick death.

Option for shareholders is sell at best price or watch share price fall through the floor as no chance of dividends and growth prospects are not good.

[Bearcat]

oh another big yawn imperial media spin from racedo again...watch out the share price will collapse stuff if the pathetic 1.40 bid is'nt rammed through....racedo it aint going to happen......how much are ryanair paying you to defend a pathetic bid that has no support for outside the FR camp?? yawn , yawn and yawn

[frfly]

If it doesnt succeed - I expect a huge expansion out of DUB for FR, on every existing EI route. If they can't have them - they will simply do their best to put them out of business.

[positive]

Ryanair have tried their best with expanding out of Dublin over the last couple of years to put Aer Lingus out of business but Aer Lingus have held their own to date.There is enough room for both airlines at Dublin.

[frnikolai]

I predict that at the last minute, Aer Lingus would have accepted the bid for a merger. Wait and see, it will come as a shock - but it is going to happen.

Nikolai

[befree]

Traffic figures

Ryanair and easyjet have reported load factors for December. They may seem not to bad at 79% and 82.3% but they are on the back of ryanair grounding around 15% of the fleet. It is also noticable that people are avaoiding FR for the vital holiday flight as they suffer more from canciled flights.

Ryanair had 4.37M seats booked for december meaning if had 1.16M unsold seats. In addition it has a no show rate around 12%. and 26 planes doing nothing for weeks.

Easyjet had 3.11M seats booked and 0.669m unsold seats. As the fares are higher they are likely to have less no shows.

Which airline had the greatest income and the least total costs?

[curser]

Quite, Bearcat. Racedo normally loves quoting numbers but he's got none left worth quoting, so now we see the ugly face of FR PR "join or else"
.01% uptake after all you're spin and effort. You know MOL is in trouble, your yields are dreadful, your figures well, .01% says it all really.
Frnikolai thanks so much for your prediction, its wonderful to have clairvoyance in your skill set. Would you mind if I have a go? I predict...that you won't have your contract renewed if you don't deliver better spin.
Best of luck to all the genuine Pilots out there have a prosperous and safe 09.

[Lord Lardy]

I predict that at the last minute, Aer Lingus would have accepted the bid for a merger. Wait and see, it will come as a shock - but it is going to happen.

Stay off the wine, christmas is over. Aer Lingus are a public company. It's the shareholders that decide whether to accept the offer. The majority won't. This takeover at this present time is dead in the water. MOL is scrambling trying to arrange an EGM on the recent finance package organised for the top brass in the company. He is trying to sway the government into selling and they won't. I don't for one minute doubt however that they won't get more that their current holding of 29% after the next deadline in February. They won't get the sufficient backing to take control, and if he can't get the Government to sell, there isn't a snowballs chance of the EU approving it.

[racedo]

oh another big yawn imperial media spin from racedo again...watch out the share price will collapse stuff if the pathetic 1.40 bid is'nt rammed through....racedo it aint going to happen......how much are ryanair paying you to defend a pathetic bid that has no support for outside the FR camp?? yawn , yawn and yawn

Share price was hovering just above €1 before the bid, share price had already collapsed and is only at its current level because FR made a bid.

Has the market sentiment that values EI changed so much that EI is now worth a lot more ?

Hardly as management have already conceded that they need to return to SNN, spend €100M on a new LGW base and reduced flights from BFS. Its cost base is still well above FR and EZY and that is no going to change. As mentioned before it is not generating cash to fund its own activities.

It doesn't inspire investor confidence.

Shares valued on basis of future dividends or future growth prospects and neither are looking rosy.

[racedo]

It is also noticable that people are avaoiding FR for the vital holiday flight as they suffer more from canciled flights.

Sources please.

[racedo]

Quite, Bearcat. Racedo normally loves quoting numbers but he's got none left worth quoting, so now we see the ugly face of FR PR "join or else"

Another of the lets abuse because we have been unable to disprove anything thats posted brigade.

[45989]

racedo
Pack it in. Quit the carping. It's effectively all over.
Now let's wait for ryr's next set of results
Maybe time to start a pot, winner takes all if you can guess the losses
to the nearest 100m Euro

[curser]

Come now Racedo, where's the abuse? Disprove what? you've never put forward anything to disprove.
The market looked at all the numbers as proposed by FR and over the course of many weeks .01% of the share holders shared your view.
All your arguments have been shown to be baseless. All your spin all your blathering and you convinced .01%.

[curser]

Ps,.Racedo are you sure you want to tie your argument to share price? The markets are distressed across the board, FRs' have been caught up in the general trend, and this before the figures are published.
Just how much will FR have to pay this year for aircraft it plans to park up? Christ lad/lassie keep your head down, FRs in more trouble than we know.

[davidjohnson6]

While 0.01% of shareholder acceptances is a derisorily low figure, the battle is not over yet. It is possible that MOL when he first issued the bid late in 2008, knew that the bid price was too low, and will now offer a more realistic figure. An improved offer may include a paper/cash mix as part of the bid, rather than pure cash. Getting some form of loan (expensive, but likely to be refinancable at a lower interest rate in 2 years time) should be do-able, since a merged airline would have a near monopoly on air transport to/from Ireland and thus capable of generating plenty of cash.

The controvery over the board compensation scheme at Aer Lingus might just be a red herring that blows over shortly - or it might lead to further enquiries. Ryanair's bid advisers should certainly be working on a way to use this to their advantage - is there anything about director's formal duties in this ? If there are any experts on Irish company law, please speak up !

At the moment it seems unlikely MOL will win the bid, but there is still the possibility of a few surprises yet. Corporate finance battles have sometimes gone on for several months before reaching a conclusion. Let this saga run its course...

[racedo]

Pack it in. Quit the carping. It's effectively all over.
Now let's wait for ryr's next set of results
Maybe time to start a pot, winner takes all if you can guess the losses
to the nearest 100m Euro

Really ?

So which airline has generated Cash form its existing operations and which one is digging into its reserves ?

EI has watched its passenger numbers fall through the floor and now commits itself to a second expansion when the first hasn't worked.

EI has to pay millions to sack staff and hope that its cost cutting works.

So you really want to go with the losses idea ????

[racedo]

Ps,.Racedo are you sure you want to tie your argument to share price? The markets are distressed across the board, FRs' have been caught up in the general trend, and this before the figures are published.
Just how much will FR have to pay this year for aircraft it plans to park up? Christ lad/lassie keep your head down, FRs in more trouble than we know.

Really so EI having to pay millions to sack staff, on your second base plan when first hasn't worked and having no competitive position v everyone else and somehow the takeover airline who has seen pax number rise 15% is the one in trouble.....hahahaha.

EI share price has got nowhere to go as nobody else can take it over and with FR sitting there nobody else is going to try.

If bid fails then look at sub €1 price so as an employee who has shares do you hold on or watch it go down the swanee for a couple of years possible never to come back.

[davidjohnson6]

If bid fails then look at sub €1 price so as an employee who has shares do you hold on or watch it go down the swanee for a couple of years possible never to come back

Aer Lingus employees of course have a choice between backing or declining the Ryanair bid. Many an EI employee will of course be considering job security in the event that a Ryanair takeover takes place and the subsequent financial implications compared to how much might be gained from a rise in the share price. Apart from Aer Lingus and Ryanair, there are very few other major employers in Dublin and Cork of staff with airline-specific job skills.

History teaches that turkeys rarely vote for Xmas