BIRMINGHAM - 4

[MerchantVenturer]

What I don't understand though is that agreed, yes BHX has had well performing city routes in the past in terms of pax loads but as you point out with very poor yields leading to the routes eventually being pulled - why is it then that at other UK airports loads and yields on the very same city routes seem to tally, meaning you can get from airports such as BRS, LPL, LBA and so on to cities such as BCN, FCO, WAW, LIS and so on. Yet BHX does successfully support European full service airlines that (KLM excepted) the others don't.

Not quite true in Bristol's case.

They also have a 3 x daily AF to CDG and a 3 x daily Brussels Airlines (operated by bmiRegional currently) to BRU.

[GayFriendly]

Sorry MV, forgot about those......does that make BRS the cat that got the loco milk and full service cream?

[MerchantVenturer]

Hi there GF.

I think that Bristol would really think it had pinched the cream if it could get back its LH route to FRA, and from a personal point of view so would I.

I'm looking forward to using BHX for the first time in the coming autumn, with Emirates.

[GayFriendly]

Hello MV!

Thats good to hear, IMO BHX has good pax facilities and the new Int Pier (from where the EK departs from) is wonderful. Its just a pity that its so woefully underserved and we cant get some imagination out of FR and Baby with new destinations (or indeed get an EZY base!). You're so lucky down at BRS with the choices you have in terms of European flights at least. I myself am off to SXF in Nov from....yes, you guessed it, BRS of course!! There are no direct flights from my local airport........its the fourth time this year I have had to fly from an airport other than BHX to get somewhere in Europe!! Anyway hope u have a safe trip thru BHX in Nov, enjoy!

[GayFriendly]

Read and weep....

Just seen this on the EDI thread which may be of interest.

Edinburgh Airport today (Thursday) announced a new route to Finnish Capital Helsinki. The route is being operated by Finnish airline Blue 1 and will see a twice weekly service starting in April 2011. The route will be flown by Blue1's NEW Boeing 717 aircraft.

Sadly, I can't remember when I last saw an announcement starting 'Birmingham Airport today announced a new route to (apart from the very temp BE summer French routes or routes that never even started)......all EDI needs now is the strongly rumoured QR to start and its flying!

It is the 25th destination to be added to Edinburgh Airport in 2010 and brings the number of routes from Scotland’s Capital to 125.[/font]

25 new destinations I think which also include BUD, MAD and PFO as well as a raft of new routes by FR (39 destinations at last count served from EDI). BHX off the top of my head has lost at least 15 routes in the last two years. I counted 63 scheduled destinations in this winters timetable from BHX. Surely EDI will overtake BHX as sixth biggest airport next year? Theres a lot more to an airport than simply basic route stats but even so this is quite pitiful for BHX.

Helsinki is one of Europe’s leading capitals and a destination that the Route Development Team at Edinburgh Airport has worked long and hard to add to Edinburgh’s list

I know I have been knocked for knocking the BHX route development team before but since when has BHX seen such route development? Yes it does have some choice routes and has done well to keep its long haul route network relatively intact (minus AI). Why then do they find it so hard to attract new business to the airport? I know EDI has the benefit of a strong inbound tourist market but BHX is a stones throw from the Cotswolds, Stratford, Warwick all of which are very popular with foreign tourists. Something does not add up, is BHX still very expensive to operate from or is there simply no demand for flights to places other than Med hot spots and legacy carrier hubs?

[OltonPete]

EDI/BHX

GF

I expected EDI to overtake BHX this year but their passenger figures have
been extremely disappointing considering the ryanair additions, of course they will also point to the ash cloud like everybody else.

EDI don't get it all their own way, as airlines do find it to operate all year round. The influx of Spanair this summer changes in winter to just twice weekly Madrid with BCN direct gone but of course FR start on Monday
(BHX will have neither - just GRO three weekly).

Lufthansa Frankfurt once again reverts to one daily and Dusseldorf disappears completely.

Helsinki was my outside bet for the one new service BHX might have got before the end of the year. With Finnair adding more long-haul and flybe putting three Q400's into Finland it seemed an ideal opportunity for a Finnair/flybe code-share flight on a 190 or 195.

I think we all knew it would be a slow climb from the bottom but I must admit, I think stall is more the appropriate word to describe things at present.

Armavia is hardly going to set bHX alight but that is about it at present.

Other than that the winter highlights are at present: -

SAS MD81 on the morning service
Contactair FK100 on the morning Dusseldorf
Three of the four LH Frankfurt flights are listed as 733's rather than 735's
KLM 738 returns to the KL1431/2 compared with the F70 now or from next week the E190.
Monarch - a virtual full schedule for three based aircraft in November,
Feb & March and very few cuts as yet in December & January.
EK is now two x 427/428/442 config aircraft
City Airline back up two daily in the week.

The most irritating is Ryanair with some days barely three needed
to be operational.

Slim pickings I know.

Pete

[ATNotts]

The problem that BHX suffers from with regard to inbound tourism is that Visit England (or whatever the quango is called this week) believe that as far as promoting England is concerned "England is London, and London is England".

The geographical knowledge of your average American, assuming Mr. Average American has any geographical knowledge outside of the USA, consists of London - which is why you are forever being asked banal questions by Amercans like "is that near London?" - and "Edinboro', Scotland" frankly, nowt else matters. So far as European tourists are concerned, the UK is expensive, and difficult to visit because we don't use the same currency, and we still have border controls! That aside Visit England does their level best to ensure that your average European gets as far as London, sees the sights and goes home!

I work for a German based company, and many of my colleagues have been to UK, but most haven't been further than London - QED!

I have noticed that Yorkshire has found the best way to promote their county is to do it themselves, and I reckon that the Midlands could do a lot worse than follow Yorkshire's example!

[GayFriendly]

The most irritating is Ryanair with some days barely three needed
to be operational

OP i'm not sure which is the biggest flop: the England teams 'performance' at the World Cup or the FR base at BHX. FR have been the biggest damp squib to hit BHX in a long while, its a truly woeful situation. The way its going I can see the base closing or being reduced to two based. Galling when other bases (BRS, LPL, EDI) have more based units and regular new routes. Again I ask the question: why do 'loco' operations seemingly not work at BHX? I'm stumped!

Apart from that EK are the stand out highlight, a double daily 773 is not bad going for a small regional like BHX. Capacity increases on LH and KL are welcome too. As for Armavia, personally can't see that lasting, it reminds me of the short lived AeroSvit operation to Kiev.

[airhumberside]

I expected EDI to overtake BHX this year but their passenger figures have
been extremely disappointing

FlyGlobespan, or rather the lack of them, will have had a major impact. 2 based B737's withdrawn

[ssflyer]

FR figures

I realise the latest figures are for summer months but by the looks of it the FR figures are circa 80% which obviously means profit for MOL.
I fly to GRO 4 or 5 times a year and the aircraft is invariably pretty full. The thought of them pulling this route and for us either flying to BCN or a £60 taxi fare to EMA does worry me.

[bejw2008]

The Bullet was fired due to Extramarital Affairs and down to the ramp staff all knowing about it and losing all of what little respect the men had for him, or so I'm told....

[OltonPete]

EDI/FR/Swissport

bejw2008

Would that stand up at an employment tribunal or were there other factors?

ssflyer

You would think that in summer that all three could operated at low to medium
frequency (REU/BCN/GRO) but winter would BCN not offer the best chance of generating more pax/profit?

Anyway I think you are safe in the short-term with GRO due to the current agreement with the local authorities. It is when that runs out will be the time to worry but I can't remember the date.

airhumberside

Fair point but wasn't ryanair four units last summer compared to six this one and I would have thought their utilisation would have been better than flyglobespan although I understand FR have added the likes of ACE/TFS/LPA etc.

However I still don't think EDI is the goldmine that some airlines think that it is and the low frequency of some of the full service airlines to Europe highlight this. KLM are strong and AF appears to at three daily but the real surprise is LH's small offering in winter but maybe that will change.

Pete

[potash]

EK and cargo

In the light of the A380 now daily into man with the 380 being a double decker does that affect the cargo carring capicty as i am led to beleive a very good earner for EK

[Ringwayman]

It does affect cargo as the A380 is not as efficient for carring the LD3 containers, but it does suggest that for EK to forgo the cargo revenue (temporarily) by replacing it with passenger revenue shows some faith in the market; though having said that, there are allegedly plans another daily flight to MAN in the next 9 months so cargo capacity should be back to normal.

I would imagine a similar scenario happening for BHX when the A380 starts operating here, though there might be the prospect of Emirates Skycargo operating 2 or 3 times a week if they don't want 3 flights out of BHX.

[anna_list]

FR @ BHX

Hi,

Here are a few reflections and musings on FR @ BHX that may or may not be of interest:

When the BHX base was first announced back in January 2008 (News : Birmingham Becomes Ryanair's 25th Base), they promised 10 aircraft and 5 million pax per year (using their usual maths suggests that they were aiming for about 50 departures per day). The initial 2 aircraft arrived in June 2008 and were followed by a further 2 in the autumn. However, since then I suspect that even the most ardent Ryanair advocates would admit that things haven't quite gone to plan.

Here is how the base has developed:
Aug 08 - on average 12 departures per day, 22 routes
Dec 08 - on average 16.8 departures per day, 31 routes
Aug 09 - on average 18.6 departures per day, 32 routes
Dec 09 - on average 11.3 departures per day, 21 routes
Aug 10 - on average 14.1 departures per day, 24 routes
(for comparison: bmiBaby had 9.1 deps per day and 9 routes in Aug 2010, down from 26 deps per day when WW's BHX operation was at its peak in August 2007 when they flew 20 routes).

After 2 years, FR's BHX base has hardly grown (now with 4 aircraft) from when it started (only slightly fewer rotations with only 2 aircraft). 50 departures per day looks a very long way off.

Over the last 2 years, the mix of routes has changed considerably. The following have been dropped:

Forli (switched to Bologna, which was then dropped)
Szczecin SZZ
Cuneo CUF
Fuerteventura FUE
Dinard DNR
Marseille MRS
Poitiers PIS
Olbia OLB
Trapani TPS
Prague PRG
Pisa PSA
Shannon SNN
Stockholm NYO
Billund BLL
Oslo TRF
Perpignan PGF
Hahn HHN
Grenoble GNB

Of the original routes 22 operated back in summer 08, only 10 (DUB, BZG, GDN, RZE, GRO, REU, BIQ, TRS, OPO and BTS) remain.

Since then new routes have been introduced and retained (so far!) to NRN, LDY, KRK, KTW, KUN, TFS, LPA, ACE, ALC, IBZ, MJV, AGP, PMI and FAO. As others have already commented, many city routes have gone and have been replaced by sun destinations that overlap with bmiBaby and Monarch.

What has gone wrong? I suspect a combination the following:
1. Ryanair overestimated the demand for some of their regional destinations from BHX and were over ambitious with their original choice of routes. Routes like TRF, NYO, BLL, regional France, Sardinia and Sicily all thrive with services that are at least daily from STN. It seems reasonable to assume that the demand might also exist for at least 2 or 3 services a week from BHX. However, it would appear that either the demand wasn't there, or when it was, the yields were too weak.

2. Ryanair underestimated the overlap with EMA. It has been said before that FR's biggest competitor is themselves. In this case, I think they underestimated the impact on BHX of their EMA base just a few miles up the road (which currently has 22 deps per day and 34 routes). Since the BHX base opened, DNR and PSA have closed from BHX (both already operated from EMA), whilst SNN, LDY, BZG, BTS and PRG have all been dumped from EMA and switched to BHX (although SNN and PRG have subsequently been dropped from BHX too). Larger markets like ALC, AGP, PMI and the Canaries appear to be able to exist in parallel from both airports, but for smaller markets it looks as though FR will have to choose either EMA or BHX.

3. To a lesser extent, the economy and the departure tax have not created ideal conditions in which to expand. However, as FR have demonstrated at recently LBA (new base), EDI (FR up 20% this summer), BRS and LPL, when they want to, they can and will grow. Incidentally, FR's operations at EMA have also grown in July and August by 16% and 19% compared to last year, whilst at BHX they have contracted by 25% and 24% in the same two months.

Where does the base go from here? Looking at the loads this year, BHX has improved enormously. For the routes where the passenger figures can be separated, FR's average loads at BHX have improved by over 10 percentage points for the first 6 months of this year compared to the same period last year. BHX now appears to be achieving some of the highest loads of any of FR's UK bases and is at the top of the table with STN. The switching of routes looks to have been effective from the point of view of filling aircraft, but this is only good news if the yields are improving too. If this is the case, then FR have a solid foundation from which to expand as the economy improves, if they can find the right routes and avoid further overlaps with EMA. If not, prepare for more throwing of toys from the pram before too long...

[Centre cities]

Ryanair

Shoot me down if I am wrong but re Ryaniar at BHX

The deal at BHX by Ryanair standards at other UK airports I am led to belive is expensive. Again I am told that the charge per passenger at EMA is a lot less. Marginal route, operate it from EMA.

The future of Ryanair I would think rests on what sort of deal is given when this one runs out. I suspect it will be like Manchester and be one the airport can not do and it will be be bye bye apart from the usual Dublin.

I suppose time will tell.

Stand to be corrected



Centre cities

[Ian Brooks]

It all depends on whether BHX is happy making no money from RYR, I think MAN
waving goodbye to them was a bold good move as they have a nasty habit of starting a route to force other operators off and then cutting right back or dropping route,
just as a method of getting rid of competition ie Baby/Easy but this also has the effect of the majors going as well.


Ian B

[OltonPete]

Ryanair

anna_list

Excellent data as ever and it certainly has been an interesting two years since the base opened.

Other than when I have been away I probably use their site every day (sad I know) and indeed at times it is difficult to understand how some flights even made the light of day (I know some had to run to deliver x number of pax through a particular airport) and others where load factors (NYO) were good but there seemed little attempt to up the fares to try and make money (I know it is never as simple as that).

Out of all their routes they have tried and failed, I can't say that I could give a good argument against their decision other than perhaps NYO. Prague had good loads and fares were never rock bottom (most of the time) but there was never much chance it would survive due to the spat with PRG.

Weeze will not doubt be next to go and that is one route that has not affected LH/BE, which is a shame in one way.

Another indication that they are not convinced about BHX is their lack of attempt to challenge flybe on business routes. Yes BHD did suffer a bit with their EMA-BHD service but not as much as BMI Baby's BFS.

I also half expected FR to try a double daily BHX-EDI when BMI Baby withdrew but I assume again they feel flybe's multiple frequencies is too much of a risk to challenge. Obviously Weeze and Hahn have operated against LH/BE but the latter was awful (although FRA pax did drop) and Weeze is always sold at fairly low fares, which with the new German tax certainly puts that at risk.

The only conclusion you can draw is that yields are at best moderate and BHX is destined to be a similar base to Luton with little or no expansion and just the occasional tinkering of routes. Hopefully I will be proved wrong.

Emirates

As good as their word thus far, the last three class low density 77W was Thursday 26/08, with mainly the 428 or 442 seat config and the odd 427 seater. I see the Manchester evening service is still HD 77W's mainly of the 442 seat variety, no doubt due to the end of the school holidays dictating the capacity required for inbound loads although that outbound A380 load posted on the Manchester thread the other day was cracking.

Pete

[airhumberside]

FR dropped routes

It is worth noting that as well as Prague, FUE and SNN went due to issues with those airports (FUE since kissed and made up). In that sense BHX has been a bit unlucky in that 'external' issues have led to thw withdrawal of certain routes

[legalize]

The Bullett

Code:

 The Bullet was fired due to Extramarital Affairs and down to the ramp staff all knowing about it and losing all of what little respect the men had for him, or so I'm told....

I dont think he could go to a tribunal as he was only on a probationary contract. As the extrmarital affair was taking place within the same office it would have been classed as a 'conflict of interest'. Hence the reason why he had to go.