BIRMINGHAM - 4

[OltonPete]

Air India/July Pax

call100

I think it has been a case of 2+2=5 and all the conflicting press articles
some of which were re-hashes of older ones giving the impression that
AI were still interested in an European hub despite the fact at the same
time they were announcing direct flights to Chicago and Toronto from Delhi and upping the Indian domestic routes.

A direct service a few times a week is much more realistic.

July pax

Again some healthy increases in the figures for business routes in general and although the split between schedule and charter is not yet available, I have added the charter pax up and they appear to be down by about 5-10k (2.5%) and schedules about 30-35k down (due to FR & WW cuts).

I will post the full schedule pax soon

Pete

[aeulad]

Airliners.net saying UA/CO to start ORD-BHX.

Regards

Mike

[OltonPete]

Chicago

Hi Mike

Yes I have noticed the thread which has been running since yesterday.

The source is from the US end and is only rumour but there seems some
background to it, as it is rumoured that some CO 75W's will be moved
to Chicago although another poster claims there are very few spare.

However I seem to remember they use about 38 out of 41 on TATL
and of course Bristol is ending this year, which could provide another.
Manchester and Oslo were the other two 757 routes rumoured.

The same thread also mentions AA staff in JFK have been told to expect
five more European routes in 2011 although the previous rumour had stated
BHX-ORD and GLA-ORD were been considered on the 757.

I would like to think that BHX could support another transatlantic outside of the New York area. AA ORD or UA ORD would stand a much better chance than the US Air PHL, which had average loads let alone yields.

Pete

[OltonPete]

July route analysis (schedule flights)

Mega help from the BHX blog and little help from acards which
seems to have gone poor. flybe routes have been estimated
as I did not keep track of cancellations.

2009 In brackets and last years routes included to
highlight that Ryanair are partly responsible for
the loss as well as BMI Baby.

Some decent increases on business routes, all is not lost
at BHX and is that light at the end of the tunnel getting brighter?

BRUSSELS 7302(7421)/43 PAX/52% LOAD FACTOR
LARNACA 7623 (6189)/173 PAX/89%
BILLUND NIL (4088)
COPENHAGEN 4843 (4759)/76 PAX/85%
AVIGNON 792 (NIL)/44 PAX/56%
BERGERAC 1939 (1490)/54 PAX/69%
BIARRITZ 2842 (3856)/158 PAX/84%
BORDEAUX 1127 (NIL)/51 PAX/66%
BREST 1075 (846)/45 PAX/57%
LA ROCHELLE 1259 (1327) 48 PAX/62%
LIMOGES 645 (NIL) 40 PAX/ 52%
LYON 2780 (2164)/32 PAX/65%
MARSEILLE NIL (3735)
NICE 6773 (6911)/121 PAX/88%
PARIS CDG 29118 (28418)/ 58 PAX/66%
PERPIGNAN 726 (2537)/45 PAX/58%
POITIERS NIL (3735)
RENNES 522 (NIL)/33 PAX/42%
TOULOUSE 1103 (770)/50 PAX/64%
DUSSELDORF 13230 (10709)/46 PAX/58%
FRANKFURT 25325 (21116)/78 PAX/74%
HAHN NIL (4191)
HAMBURG 3231 (2598)/52 PAX/67%
HANOVER 4334 (3713)/49 PAX/63%
MUNICH 11572 (10414)/70 PAX/81%
WEEZE 3877 (5081)/149 PAX/79%
STUTTGART 3499 (2832)/38 PAX/49%
CORK 7596 (5659)/141 PAX/81%
DUBLIN 46899 (49494)/134 PAX/74%
KNOCK 4806 (6011)/109 PAX/75%
SHANNON 2453 (9012)/47 PAX/66%
WATERFORD 1713 (1888) 48 PAX/66%
MILAN 3746 (2724)/60 PAX/54%
TRIESTE 2690 (2641)/149 PAX/79%
MALTA 2370 (3039)/119 PAX/80%
AMSTERDAM 37733 (34341)/92 PAX/77%
FARO 20762 (15498)/155 PAX/82%
OPORTO 2873 (2815)/160 PAX/85%
ALICANTE 28326 (29924)/159 PAX/86%
ALMERIA 1929 (4814) 193 PAX/90%
BARCELONA NIL (4941)
GIRONA 6744 (4257)/153 PAX/81%
IBIZA 10358 (6331)/162 PAX/80%
MAHON 6386 (7933)/177 PAX/83%
MALAGA 32103 (32943)/156 PAX/85%
MURCIA 10929 (17012)/137 PAX/80%
PALMA 21371 (25294)/146 PAX/83%
REUS 3529 (6989)/136 PAX/72%
ARRECIFE 8428 (3451)/183 PAX/92%
FUERTEVENTURA 3326 (NIL)/185 PAX/86%
LAS PALMAS 5693 (NIL)/167 PAX/83%
TENERIFE 15505 (8568)/194 PAX/94%
GOTHENBERG 145 (204)/24 PAX/54%
STOCKHOLM NYO NIL (4456)
DUBROVNIK 691 (859)/86 PAX/73%
SPLIT 949 (752)/95 PAX/80%
OSLO TORP NIL (3881)
ZURICH 13984 (12188)/75 Pax/75%
ANTALYA 562 (NIL)/ 71 PAX/37%
ISTANBUL 5107 (5247)/111 PAX/76%
DALAMAN 4410 (NIL)/158 PAX/74%
PRAGUE NIL (8108)
KAUNAS 2855 (2922)/178 PAX/94%
BYDGOSZCZ 4941 (3077)/176 PAX/93%
GDANSK 3171 (3052)/176 PAX/93%
KATOWICE 3119 (5925)/173 PAX/92%
KRAKOW 4509 (6002)/173 PAX/92%
RZESNOW 2839 (3113)/177 PAX/94%
BRATISLAVA 4939 (4161)/176 PAX/93%
ASHKHABAD 4149 (4157)/122 PAX/64%
TEHRAN 4814 (2413)185 PAX/85%
DUBAI 44731 (38065)/361 PAX/88%
ISLAMABAD 9878 (8847)274 PAX/73%
NEWARK 9436 (9233)/152 PAX/87%

Pete

[bejw2008]

Looks like the Bullet has been fired at Swissport.....

[OltonPete]

Swissport

bejw2008

Who fired the bullet?

Swissport HQ or flybe?

There was a rumour a few months back that flybe were going self-handling?

Pete

[bazzab68]

Swissport

All

I know servisair have announced handling of the PIA from oct which is a blow to swissport but are we talking a full scale pull out here?? Surely the airport would not allow this to happen.. In these times a new agent looks remote as the set up costs to rewards are minimal to say the least.. Bhx is surely to big for a one agent airport...

Baz

[Burpbot]

It wont be a one handler airport! We have 3 more in the old terminal alone

[wanna_be_there]

Some good figures there.

With EK adding capacity next month, the DXB figures should increase nicely again with septembers figures.

BTS is a good route, what is the frequency of the route? MAN used to have very strong BTS figures, but since Sky europe went under and danube wings deciding not to go for jet travel, Im assuming some of the ex-MAN pax are heading down to BHX.

Also, with the Tehran figures being so high, what was the reason for them leaving BHX in favour of MAN last time. Mahan always confused me how they started BHX, then MAN, then moved all BHX flights to MAN, pulled out of MAN due to them being banned, then, starting at BHX again. Im not saying BHX doesnt deserve the route, but just seems very odd.

The one I am surprised about is the very low loads on BRU. Id have thought that route would do well on 2 fronts, the city break crowd and the hubbing of Jet airways (Using their code share from BHX) to India and SN services to Western Africa

Ive noticed some people talk about EZY basing themselfs at BHX. I hope for BHX's sake they do come. BHX management should have been straight on the case as soon as EZY pulled the plug on EMA.
I remember EZY started at MAN at about the same time RYR started at BHX. MAN then told FR to sod off and it seems to have paid off, as we now have 2 very strong Locos with EZY/JET2, and then a spattering of FR/WW/ZB.
Maybe BHX should court Jet2 also? I know they have just set up camp at EMA, but the type of routes Jet2 offer would compliment BHX services perfectly.
If they based a B757, they could run ACE/SSH/HER/MIR and so on.

What are your guys thoughts.

[OltonPete]

July pax

wanna_be_there

Emirates figures are good and as you say the increase in capacity next month should sort demand out for the winter. The increase in reality is not that great as the 3 class 77W was often upgraded on average half of the month.

Bratislava has filled from day one at three times a week and it has not even changed days (Tu, Th, Sa). For BTS you can also add all the Polish routes, KUN, OPO, no problem in filling them what ever the time of the year. The only conclusion after over two years is that none are making much money as they have not increased in frequency. In fact all the routes that started when the base opened or shortly afterwards and BZG is the only one that has gone from 2 to 3 weekly but even that was suspended at one time.

Tehran's success I believe is purely down to the what seats are taken by local travel agents/seat brokers within the Sikh community (stand to be corrected on that) and of course this time round no Air India flying direct.

The majority of pax connect to Amritsar with a few to BKK and of course a small amount of O & D. An Air India restart could nail this service but time will tell I suppose.

Brussels I have been told is one of BHX's most profitable routes, which again goes to show how load factors can be mis-leading at times. I believe a lot of late booking full business and economy fares are taken. However like you I am surprised that the added code-shares have not added to the number of pax.

Rumour has it easyjet just will not bite and it is not for the lack of trying by BHX, the East Mids failure has coloured their thinking re the Midlands so the rumours go but obviously this is only talk.

My personal opinion is that Jet2 would not add that much and I would hope ZB would be looking at some of these routes in time.

Hopes for the future, for me it still has to be easyjet or like other threads maybe the flybe 175 will be the saviour and offer such routes as FCO, MAD, TXL, VCE and BCN. I know they have mentioned European bases and replacing the Q400 on longer runs but there must be some scope for new routes.

Pete

[wanna_be_there]

Tehran's success I believe is purely down to the what seats are taken by local travel agents/seat brokers within the Sikh community

Oh don't get me wrong, I understand why the route does well ex-BHX, just confused me on why they pulled out of BHX for MAN, got banned then rather than come back to MAN, came back to BHX. Maybe in the time they were banned, the competition at MAN got too much for them?

My personal opinion is that Jet2 would not add that much

Youd be surprised Oltonpete! Not only could they add many pax to the sun routes via Jet2 holidays, but they do operate niche routes that BHX could strive for. For example, they fly MAN-PRG, which once CSA pull out of the UK, will come in very handy as bmibaby offer a few flights, and LS fill in the gaps. Another one is MAN-TLV. This would not have been concived in the wildest dreams of MON/WW/FR etc, but has proven to be a huge sucess for MAN. Jet2 seem to show iniciative, and offer flights that work from MAN. All we need them to do now is get MAD/BCN/VIE/BTS going and MAN will be on a winning streak.
So, in conclusion, Id bet that Jet2 would be the best bet for BHX.

Hopes for the future, for me it still has to be easyjet

Now, this is a risky subject for BHX. Could EZY actually offer anything that BHX needs? You say you want the likes of MAD, FCO, TXL etc. If EZY were to open a base at BHX, I think it would run on the same lines as the MAN base, as MAN/BHX have similar market characteristics.
At MAN, they only operate BIA/RAK that isnt offered by someone else on a scheduled basis, and thats out of 22 routes!!
Now, MAN has been lucky that EZY has actually complimented exsisting services, rather than force them out. Would BHX be as lucky is the main question.
Core routes could manage, but other might not. For example:
MUC- LH would never give this route up due to hubbing connections, so EZY/LH could co exsist.
ZRH- same as MUC but with swiss instead of LH
GOT- would CF stick around, as they already like to drop the second daily at the first sight of a drop in pax
HEL/BIA/SOF/RAK- is there much demand on these route. I suppose they have never been tried so you never know
MJV/BCN/KRK- would FR stand for this, or try and price EZY out?
AGP/ALC/TFS- would this actually add anything to BHX that it hasnt already got?
SSH/ACE/HER/MIR- Jet2 would be better for these routes, as seats they cant flog online could easily be filled with jet2 holidays. EZY doesnt have this luxury.

[TSR2]

Wanna be there

MAN then told FR to sod off and it seems to have paid off, as we now have 2 very strong Locos with EZY/JET2, and then a spattering of FR/WW/ZB.

I would think ZB flights out of MAN are a little more than a spattering. They currently operate 98 flights per week to 15 destinations whilst LS operate 89 flights to 25 destinations compared to EZY who operate 81 flights to 19 destinations.

[legalize]

I dont think Swissport losing PIA is to much of a blow for them as they have been trying to get rid of them for 6 months now but PIA just wouldnt go. We have known for a while now that swissport only want to handle BE, Swiss and a few other little crappy airlines that fit in around there downtime.

Regardng the 'Bullet' i have heard a lot about this guy from friends. Has he been sacked due to his poor perfomance on the field or off the field?

Im sure he will be missed like a hole in the head..No pun intended

[hammerb32]

wanna_be_there

When Mahan up rooted to MAN AI were flying daily to Amritsar, Turkmenistan were also offering a 4 x weekly service (if memory serves) and were and are very much established on the route. I guess Mahan couldn't get a foothold and so went to MAN.

With regards to Jet2 if they come to BHX to fill in the gaps then they I would agree they could offer something, however they have very little, if any brand presence in this area. Would prefer personally to see FlyBE expand and offer the likes of CIA or FCO, BCN, MAD, PRG etc, they're already set up, have a decent brand presence and if they went for it properly could have a decent sized catchment. Not sure that Easy will come, if they were going to I think they would have been here by now.

[GayFriendly]

Agree hammberb32, Flybe could offer so much for BHX yet they seem to be very cautious when it comes to new routes (and the load factors on their French summer routes do not seem great, I can't see those back next summer). The only hope is that the 175 combined with recent comments by BE about expansion in Europe come off, but remember BHX will compete for new routes with SOU, MAN and EXT amongst others. And if they were that interested in Europe they already have the 190 but have shown no interest in developing their network with these, some routes could i'm sure be a success with this aircraft. It still amazes me the lack of European city destinations from BHX that are served from other UK airports, is it that Brummies are just happy flying only to the sun and sand?

Its a shame about EZY and Jet2 - I know they have tried really hard with EZY I can only assume they have zero interest in developing a Midlands base whatever the offer is from BHX. Jet2 I assume went to EMA as they are part of the MAG and got a great deal. So BHX is stuck with FR (flaky and obviously not interested in developing their ops at BHX) and Baby (who have run back to EMA and are very much a bit part player now at BHX). The only hope for new city routes could be from foreign based locos on W patterns but even these have a disastrous record at BHX - Spanair didnt even start, Norwegian and SkyEurope did just a couple of seasons.

[OltonPete]

flybe

GF

I have used the exact number of rotations flown for the French routes but no doubt the first few inbounds would have been pretty light on pax. Hopefully August will provide better figures, I certainly hope so otherwise I will have egg on my face, as I have long advocated they do this rather than just leave the aircraft on the ground for six weeks.

I find it difficult to knock flybe's current approach as their financials seem to indicate it is spot on and they are now very conservative with their route selection after a few decisions went wrong at Liverpool and Norwich.

To be fair to Norwegian and SkyEurope their routes did carry a significant amount of pax, it was just unfortunate that nobody actually wanted to pay a realistic amount of money!!

Spanair - the less said the better but it seems a 100% correct decision to cancel them before they started.

Pete

[GayFriendly]

OP - fair points raised and I am certainly not knocking Flybe, I would rather they were more conservative with their route development, at least when they do start a new route at BHX it seems to be commercially viable in the long run (I hope the French flights don't buck this trend!).

What I don't understand though is that agreed, yes BHX has had well performing city routes in the past in terms of pax loads but as you point out with very poor yields leading to the routes eventually being pulled - why is it then that at other UK airports loads and yields on the very same city routes seem to tally, meaning you can get from airports such as BRS, LPL, LBA and so on to cities such as BCN, FCO, WAW, LIS and so on. Yet BHX does successfully support European full service airlines that (KLM excepted) the others don't. Its all very odd, what is plain to see though is that BHX has yet to see a long lasting major loco base offering a range of sea and city destinations, it got close with Baby in 2008 but the arrival of FR put paid to that. Mind you without FR things would be even more dire so we should be thankful for what we do have I suppose even if their route choices do little to fill in the gaps.

[bejw2008]

Flybe will never go self handling, think of the cost, and also they would have nobody to point the finger and blame when things go wrong, from what i've heard Flybe are looking at cutting cost by droping the axe on 2 out of 3 of there operation mangers at BHX..... So form a que to have a knife in the back......

[jetsgo]

Self Handling

FlyBe tried self handling a few years back I think in GCI. By all accounts they were put off doing it anywhere else.

[OltonPete]

Cities

GF

Good points re the city destinations and although I have said poor yields, I also wonder with BMI Baby was it the aircraft used which made it difficult.

The 733 is not the most economical and of course they were allegedly on high leases.

Jet2 fly Manchester to Nice, Rome and Budapest but they own a lot of their aircraft, which must make a huge difference.

flybe with much more economical aircraft can't like what they see at present with these routes and FR we might have to concede have too many seats to fill to make it viable.

Now that BMI Baby have sorted the leases out on their aircraft (in the main) I wonder if they will look at these destinations again, as we know Prague resumes at the end of September so there is some hope.

Pete