CORK - 5

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by j636

I'm sure you are aware what happened with FR to MAN ex SNN, market has grown and fares dropped to 5 euro. FR will be forced to cut fares and attract lots of passengers to STN.

FR will come off worse if WX have the right price structure. An ATR or F50 would be best aircraft in terms of cost.

Are you seriously suggesting that WX can take on and beat FR in a price war?

(In the case of SNN-MAN, an FR 737 beats a Stobart ATR72 on seat cost any day. Somehow I think you'll find that the FR 737 beats anything Cityjet can put into the market too.)

[brian_dromey]

The seat-cost of the ATR is more, but seems to be compeditive with the FR 738 to UK destinations. The 738 is arguably too big and too heavy on the very short DUB-UK hops and the connections to the EI North America help too.

I'm really surprised and shocked at the, unnecessarily, negitive reaction to the arrival of a new airline and a new route. If a new airline and new route are so unwelcome we might as well close the gates. WX won't match FR on price or EI in frequency, but if fares are reasonable and timings are convenient this route could work. It could be convenient for the passenger with central London as their final destination.
In 2010 797,000 passengers travelled between ORK and LON. This is by far and away the largest market for cork. The LCY route simply has to work, make no mistake EI and FR will lower fares and may increase frequency. I hope WX can take the heat and the attraction of LCY will make the route a viable one. Three failures from three new routes by non-based airlines will be a disaster for the airport.

[j636]

Are you seriously suggesting that WX can take on and beat FR in a price war?

(In the case of SNN-MAN, an FR 737 beats a Stobart ATR72 on seat cost any day. Somehow I think you'll find that the FR 737 beats anything Cityjet can put into the market too.)

No!

If FR lose traffic they will lower fares to increase loads and grown the market, if EI lose traffic it will open more transit traffic via LHR and some lower fares however EI have no choice but to stay put at current freq for 5 years....once IAG goes ahead.

FR/EI have had it easy their pricing is not cheap so some competition will bleed money off them regardless.

There is clear demand for LON especially on peak days where 100+ euro is charged by FR and they are filling those aircraft. A 2 daily (3 daily peak days) should work and deliver competition. If they get 100 a pop like FR are getting now then they will be doing well and that's a rough idea of what BA/WX are getting ex DUB-LCY.

As for the SNN comments, FR have grown the market by adding extra capacity and lowering fares. The same will happen here and I think WX can make a service viable.

[AerRyan]

Where will the extra passengers come from? Please explain. In SNN Ryanair offered a cheaper service which pulled passengers that flew from DUB/ORK/NOC on other services and allowed people to make more trips to MAN.

WX will offer a more expensive service, that will allow business passengers who already fly to Heathrow to fly that route.

Where will the extra pax come from?

[EI-A330-300]

Where will the extra passengers come from? Please explain. In SNN Ryanair offered a cheaper service which pulled passengers that flew from DUB/ORK/NOC on other services and allowed people to make more trips to MAN.

WX will offer a more expensive service, that will allow business passengers who already fly to Heathrow to fly that route.

Where will the extra pax come from?

You answered your own question, the cheaper fares FR will have to offer ex Cork will pull passengers back.....if WX and FR charge the same price (ie FR current high fares) then plenty of passengers would move to WX so FR will have to drop.

I bet if SNN had the route you wouldn't be asking such stupid questions.....or put it this way where will the extra passengers come from to fill the A320 EI will return to SNN??

[AerRyan]

Originally Posted by EI-A330-300

You answered your own question, the cheaper fares FR will have to offer ex Cork will pull passengers back.....if WX and FR charge the same price (ie FR current high fares) then plenty of passengers would move to WX so FR will have to drop.

I bet if SNN had the route you wouldn't be asking such stupid questions.....

WX won't be steal many pax from FR. They are different markets. Maybe it's the person whos stupid who doesn't understand this. Wx will chiefly steal pax from EI, and EI won't drop the fare below the base of €100 return (Taxes only)

So I ask again, where will the pax come from? In the case of Shannon you had Liverpool pax forced to fly MAN, as well as some BHX as well as fares as low as €10 return compared to EI's min €80 return. Pax who flew ORK/DUB/NOC now flew SNN.

Will anyone from WAT, NOC, SNN, KIR, DUB be jumping back to Cork for this service? NO. How you missed my point so comprehensively would confuse a physic.

[EI-A330-300]

WX won't be steal many pax from FR. They are different markets. Maybe it's the person whos stupid who doesn't understand this. Wx will chiefly steal pax from EI, and EI won't drop the fare below the base of €100 return (Taxes only)

So I ask again, where will the pax come from? In the case of Shannon you had Liverpool pax forced to fly MAN, as well as some BHX as well as fares as low as €10 return compared to EI's min €80 return. Pax who flew ORK/DUB/NOC now flew SNN.

Will anyone from WAT, NOC, SNN, KIR, DUB be jumping back to Cork for this service? NO. How you missed my point so comprehensively would confuse a physic.

Really because people of Cork have such a big choice currently to London.....people had no choice to but to use FR when EI pulled out of SNN and they suddenly regained numbers when they returned. Not everybody can afford to fly Aer Lingus as they have limited slots are make as much as possible out of those slots so are forced to FR as EI don't have capacity and no other carriers.

You are right EI won't drop such much as they can get anything up to 200 return but will be competitive, all 3 airports will suit different people but making a blanket statement saying no additional passengers will be generated is madness. How many passengers fly ex KIR/SNN because FR are cheaper than at Cork?

If those passengers now fly ex SNN why have EIR increase traffic on routes such as BHX-ORK still charging those high fares?

Notice you have dogged the EI extra capacity ex SNN this winter question, where will those passengers come from???? I will give you the answer the same place where Cork will generate them!

[AerRyan]

Originally Posted by EI-A330-300

Really because people of Cork have such a big choice currently to London.....people had no choice to but to use FR when EI pulled out of SNN and they suddenly regained numbers when they returned. Not everybody can afford to fly Aer Lingus as they have limited slots are make as much as possible out of those slots so are forced to FR as EI don't have capacity and no other carriers.

You are right EI won't drop such much as they can get anything up to 200 return but will be competitive, all 3 airports will suit different people but making a blanket statement saying no additional passengers will be generated is madness. How many passengers fly ex KIR/SNN because FR are cheaper than at Cork?

If those passengers now fly ex SNN why have EIR increase traffic on routes such as BHX-ORK still charging those high fares?

Notice you have dogged the EI extra capacity ex SNN this winter question, where will those passengers come from???? I will give you the answer the same place where Cork will generate them!

Prices will stay lower for longer due to more capacity, but I think it will only steal pax back from the FR services. Not provide any real growth.

Give that same answer?

Notice I only disagree with the fact that this will grow pax. I think the WX service is good as it increases the airline diversity at ORK.

[EI-A330-300]

Prices will stay lower for longer due to more capacity, but I think it will only steal pax back from the FR services. Not provide any real growth.

Give that same answer?

Notice I only disagree with the fact that this will grow pax. I think the WX service is good as it increases the airline diversity at ORK.

It will steel numbers but also increase overall numbers, just look at what FR increases ex NOC to LON have done over the last few months.

The real question is will WX have a sustainable service as FR/EI will see a fall in €€€ but will not exit the market as it's still a very profitable market.

FR grew STN in May by 7850*
FR grew LGW in May by 415
EI reduced LHR in May by 2,288**
Total increase of 5,997

* - assuming an increase in capacity
** - there was a fifth daily flight for some of May last year

May Figures!
SNN increased LON traffic by 1.628
WAT increased LON traffic by 2,708***
KIR increased LON traffic by 1,462
NOC increased LON traffic by 3,014
DUB increased LON traffic by 37,076

*** - lot of that traffic would of used Cork previously with Dublin taking the rest.

So total IRE-LON traffic increased by 51,885, it's clearly a market than can adsorb capacity that's dumped on it.

WX will increase traffic but the question can it be done at a profit. Time will tell...

[840]

I'm pretty certain that there is scope for extra capacity to London. Remember that we are around a third down on its highest level.

I won't perdonally be making use of the service as I have three reasons for flying to London - visit my sister (Heathrow or Gatwick), visit my company's Thames Valley office (Hearhrow) or connect (Heathrow). But there will be plenty of people with destinations in the city or around Canary Wharf who will find this suits them.

Where they may find they can get some joy is is they can have a departure to London around 6:00-6:30am. The current offers from EI and FR don't allow you to fly over in the morning and get into an office at a reasonable hour.

I think what surprised people with this one is that nobody had seen it coming. As I understand it, it doesn't qualify for route support, so it needs to perform from day 1. As such, it's a bit braver than a lot of the routes proposed.

[anna_list]

Cork - London market

Hello,

For those that are interested, here's a chart of the number of passengers flying Cork - London over the last 25 years (CAA data).

Over 250,000 more people flew in 2004 than last year, but that was back when Easyjet entered the market and Ryanair responded by adding a lot of capacity. As we can see, that wasn't a sustainable level of capacity. Since 2010, the number of people flying has been relatively flat at just below 800,000 per year. This doesn't reflect the level of growth seen in both the Irish and UK markets recently, so I would suggest that the market does have scope for some growth. However, Ryanair have increased frequencies on ORK-STN compared to last year. The usual story is a brief win for customers until the balance of supply and demand returns.

[AerRyan]

So anyone know when it will be announced this week?

[EI-A330-300]

Wednesday morning

[840]

And will the aircraft be Cork-based?

I believe WX have only a single aircraft overnighting in LCY and that serves Dublin.

Or will it be like their Paris or Nantes services that start the day in Antwerp/Rotterdam and operate a W.

I feel they will need an early morning departure to appeal to business passengers from Cork.

[EI-A330-300]

Have no details but if they are serious about it I expect an aircraft in Cork would be required.

As speculated it could be VLM or Stobart opersted.

[gavinhicks]

Any news of when the announcement is due is it today?

[twostroker]

Just announced, 3 times daily on Mon-Fri, 1 xSaturday rotation and 2 rotations Sunday
07:40 morning departure from ORK suggests an aircraft overnighting

http://www.rte.ie/news/business/2015...-cork-airport/

[EI-A330-300]

12 conections ex LCY will alo be available.

Commences 1 October, schedule for valid until 24 October

ORK-LCY
07.40-09.05 - Mon-Sat
11.30-12.55 - Mon/Tue
12.20-13.45 - Wed-Sun (excl Sat)
16.10-17.35 - Mon-Sun (excl Sat)

LCY-ORK
09.35-11.00 - Mon-Sat
13.25-14.50 - Mon/Tue
14.15-15.40 - Wed-Sun (excl Sat)
18.05-19.30 - Mon-Sun (excl Sat)

Schedule from 25 October

ORK-LCY
06.50-08.15 - Mon-Fri
08.00-09.25 - Sat
12.10-13.35 - Mon-Sun (excl Sat)
16.00-17.25 - Mon-Sun (excl Sat)

LCY-ORK
08.45-10.10 - Mon-Fri
09.55-11.20 - Sat
14.05-15.30 - Mon-Sun )excl Sat)
17.55-19.20 - Mon-Sun (excl Sat)

[brian_dromey]

Looks like a good schedule. City jet, Cork Airport, Failte Ireland and other stakeholders need to get on-board to make sure advertising is widespread and effective, that includes marketing ORK as a destination in the City of London too. The success of 'bucket and spade' routes of of LCY goes to prove there is a desire market too, these are likely to be well heeled. I would suggest that golfers and foodies would be good targets. The Cork area is certainly blessed with incredible food and excellent golf courses.

[840]

The post October 25 timetable looks good. Let's hope they can settle into something resembling that year round.

3 rotations a day seems slightly underutilizing the aircraft.

They would need to move everything after the 2nd rotation 90-120 minutes later to squeeze in any more.

There's probably a lack of unserved routes the right distance from Cork though to put anything in there though. Maybe Belfast?

Any word on aircraft type? Is 1h 25m a bit too short for it to be a Fokker 50?