WX won't be steal many pax from FR. They are different markets. Maybe it's the person whos stupid who doesn't understand this. Wx will chiefly steal pax from EI, and EI won't drop the fare below the base of €100 return (Taxes only)
So I ask again, where will the pax come from? In the case of Shannon you had Liverpool pax forced to fly MAN, as well as some BHX as well as fares as low as €10 return compared to EI's min €80 return. Pax who flew ORK/DUB/NOC now flew SNN.
Will anyone from WAT, NOC, SNN, KIR, DUB be jumping back to Cork for this service? NO. How you missed my point so comprehensively would confuse a physic.
Really because people of Cork have such a big choice currently to London.....people had no choice to but to use FR when EI pulled out of SNN and they suddenly regained numbers when they returned. Not everybody can afford to fly Aer Lingus as they have limited slots are make as much as possible out of those slots so are forced to FR as EI don't have capacity and no other carriers.
You are right EI won't drop such much as they can get anything up to 200 return but will be competitive, all 3 airports will suit different people but making a blanket statement saying no additional passengers will be generated is madness. How many passengers fly ex KIR/SNN because FR are cheaper than at Cork?
If those passengers now fly ex SNN why have EIR increase traffic on routes such as BHX-ORK still charging those high fares?
Notice you have dogged the EI extra capacity ex SNN this winter question, where will those passengers come from???? I will give you the answer the same place where Cork will generate them!