IRELAND WEST AIRPORT KNOCK

[Runway_approach]

Originally Posted by TRY2FLY

I'm sure Loganair or Eastern has the spare capacity to do a Scottish route, the question is have they been approached. I doubt it.

I think trying to make the eastern airways model work in the west of Ireland be very challenging - they don't do low fares leisure markets tend to focus on high frequency city pairs with big focus on cities with major oil refineries

[AerRyan]

Originally Posted by Runway_approach

I think trying to make the eastern airways model work in the west of Ireland be very challenging - they don't do low fares leisure markets tend to focus on high frequency city pairs with big focus on cities with major oil refineries

That's also a reason why we will never see VLM venture out of Waterford. VLM are a high fare (but high quality) airline. Ryanair are very protective of their home soil so they would easily beat them at NOC, SNN, KIR, ORK, or DUB, but they cannot operate out of WAT, so VLM can operate there.

There will be a BHX service back at NOC if the airport want it, but it will be a while. My estimate would be September 2016 operated by Flybe. Flybe will have spare suitable aircraft then and plan on basing a few at BHX.

I don't think the airport has many areas left to grow. They should focus on getting their LPA and Scottish route back and possibly a French route. Oh, also a weekly German/Swiss/Austrian charter for the tourists would be in order. After that the airport is at Max for the next few years.

A U.S service is a long way off, I cannot imagine who would operate one.

[Una Due Tfc]

Agreed. Every US and Canadian long-haul carrier already operates something to DUB and/or SNN, so they're unlikely to launch a service that compete with ones they already have, not unless DUB totally fills up, which is a long way off, if ever happening. A service to one of the big euro hubs by e.g. HOP! or Eurowings might work though.

[EI-BUD]

So why exactly should an airport focus on the unachievable?

Aer Ryan,
Sorry for the slow reply...
Yes it would appear like a long shot. However, my point is the level of emigration ex the west coast over the decades, means that for VFR and Americans visiting, I believe that Knock airport could sustain a service, less than daily but certainly 4 weekly in Summer. The challenge is the range of carriers for such a service or rather the lack of, and I accept it would be difficult to attract one of the legacy carriers to the market. Somebody like Norwegian may be the right style of carrier but unlikely to be interested at this point of time.

This is very subjective but it is my opinion, Flyglobespan certainly got the support in terms of demand, but obviously we dont know about the margin they made on the service ... sadly their situation put paid to the routes life span...
EI-BUD

[Runway_approach]

Agree think Scotland and getting LPA back for 2016 and maybe somewhere like Majorca are realistic targets for 2016 especially with Ryanair starting to take delivery of new planes there maybe additional opportunities - re the U.S. The 2007 services certainly proved there is a market there and they had loads j understand of 85% plus on the NOC legs which you would imagine with a credible carrier would do even better - a 2/3 per week summer service should certainly be sustainable there's a whole west and northwest of country to use it and as you pointed out there is a huge diaspora from these regions in the likes of New York and Boston - remains to be seen over coming years if any carriers give it a shot - I hear on grapevine there is the interest there from carriers

[AerRyan]

Personally I cannot see why any airline would compromise their DUB/SNN services. If they are to start anything, it would be a service to ORK.

Also, the Flyglobespan, they included the LPL and GLA pax, yes?

[EI-BUD]

yes Globespan did New York and Boston and every flight was operated ex the UK some ex GLA some ex LPL. I think it you look back far enough on this thread you will see much commentary on the operation, but the indicators available to the general public were very good.

Surprising that Ryanair dont dip their toe in the water, I think the 738 could make it, Norwegian use 738 on Oslo Dubai and Norway to the Canaries and the distance is similar... as well documented FR not read to do the US, though the West of Ireland to the Eastern Seaboard could prove the demand and give a chance to prove the commerciality or not!

[Runway_approach]

Originally Posted by AerRyan

Personally I cannot see why any airline would compromise their DUB/SNN services. If they are to start anything, it would be a service to ORK.

Also, the Flyglobespan, they included the LPL and GLA pax, yes?

The load factor I detailed was for NOC legs only - I think cork is too close to Shannon and their runway isnt long enough to take most transatlantic type aircraft (could be wrong on that) as 2007 proved I think knock could stimulate some additional traffic with a seasonal service without cannibalising Shannon / Dublin particularly from
The U.S. Side which is booming and much lower cost base into knock but just my opinion !!

[Angry Rebel]

@runway approach - it's a long standing myth about Cork's runway. The vast majority of aircraft can operate unrestricted to East Coast USA including all the most likely aircraft e.g 757-200, 330-200/330-300. Even the 747-400 can do it.

Newer aircraft like A350 and B787 can do West Coast with 100% payload.

[737aviator]

EI-BUD, Ryanair have also flown Norway to the Canary Islands for 2 winters now. This is an incomparable route, although while it may be quite similar in terms of ground distance, is not subject to the same influence of jet streams that an East/West route to the US is. The 737-800, even with limited pax numbers, would be unable to guarantee non-stop west bound trips. Even this past winter, many 757s were having to make fuel stops westbound due to strong winds.
Also, the runway is too short at Knock to ensure that a 737-800 can take off at MTOW in a variety of weather conditions. Some days maybe, winter days with low atmospheric pressure then it'd have severe limitations.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Globespan planned for the 757 to operate the routes, but when the 757 was gone tech they swapped in the 737-800s, which then usually had to make fuel stops at various places such as Gander, KEF, etc.

[OltonPete]

BHX-NOC

AerRyan

The flybe schedule at BHX this summer is very light at times and room could have been made for Knock if it was viable. However I agree with you that I would not rule out a return and certainly as a route currently not served it will once again qualify for discounts at both end. I not sure what the BHX's rules are on the length of time before the same operator can come back on a route to be eligble for discounts. These used to be available on line but now seems to give an e-mail address for route incentives.

At present the BHX-NQY-STN-NQY-BHX Q400 arrives back at 18.30 and night-stops Monday to Friday and plenty of spares Saturday evening although Sunday I believe is tight.

However I suspect a policy change by flybe relating to the high utilisation due the Q400 - This Saturday all aircraft needed in the morning and the operation went pear-shaped putting BHX at number 4 or 5 on FR24 re departure delays (worldwide) and considering there were no Midlands weather issues that takes some doing. To be fair Flybe recovered it with the help of the 175.

Pete

[AerRyan]

Originally Posted by Angry Rebel

@runway approach - it's a long standing myth about Cork's runway. The vast majority of aircraft can operate unrestricted to East Coast USA including all the most likely aircraft e.g 757-200, 330-200/330-300. Even the 747-400 can do it.

Newer aircraft like A350 and B787 can do West Coast with 100% payload.

Completely incorrect. The only aircraft able to operate a transatlantic service from Cork is the 757-200 and even that faces restrictions in some conditions. All of them wide bodies can land at Cork, but they cannot operate a viable service from Cork due to the payload restrictions. A B747-400 would not make it far with the restrictions at ORK.

Of course, a T/A service can be operated from Cork. Thats commonly the mistaken fact.

[840]

Without wishing to take the IWAK thread off-topic, the truth is somewhere between the two.

There are aircraft other than the 757-200 that could operate transatlantic unrestricted from Cork - the 737-X00ER, A319LR, 767-200

There's another set that, while restricted, can probably be operated commercially - A330-200, 787-800 - because even with a full cargo load, they don't need to leave at MTOW.

Then there's a large set that can be operated in a restricted manner, but could never be profitable.

However, profitable is the key word, and the lack of a decent cargo business in Cork (and Knock) seriously undermines the potential profitability.

[confused atco]

I think a US route should be a priority for Knock Airport.

re the U.S. The 2007 services certainly proved there is a market there and they had loads j understand of 85% plus on the NOC legs

The load factor I detailed was for NOC legs only -

This is the question you should be asking.

How many seats in terms of a full airplane is 85% of the KNOCK Leg?


Say for argument the Knock leg was 100 seats out of 200.

They only managed to sell 85% of 100 not 85% of 200.

Totally different load factor.

[Runway_approach]

Originally Posted by confused atco

This is the question you should be asking.

How many seats in terms of a full airplane is 85% of the KNOCK Leg?


Say for argument the Knock leg was 100 seats out of 200.

They only managed to sell 85% of 100 not 85% of 200.

Totally different load factor.

It's 85% of what they were permitted to sell so doesent matter if it was 200 or 500 they were allocated a set amount on each flight and across the season sold 85% of their allocation - from memory I think they had about 120 out of 170 odd on the JFK service!

[AerRyan]

I highly doubt they managed to sell 120 seats on a 757/737 on the NOC leg of the flight. I would have imagined that the vast majority would have came from LPL and GLA. They are both large population centers and LPL didnt even have a Transatlantic flight! Knock a population center? Not so much....

[Runway_approach]

Originally Posted by AerRyan

I highly doubt they managed to sell 120 seats on a 757/737 on the NOC leg of the flight. I would have imagined that the vast majority would have came from LPL and GLA. They are both large population centers and LPL didnt even have a Transatlantic flight! Knock a population center? Not so much....

I'm afraid your wrong knock certainly had 60% if not more of the flight I knew some of the guys working on it at the time - liverpool had no transatlantic but their neighbours 20 minutes down the road in Manchester had plenty - throw in a stopover in knock and not as attractive! Ps I'll see if can get more info on the breakdown but NOC leg was certainly the stronger on both particularly the JFK lots of ex pats used it etc

[confused atco]

I'm afraid your wrong knock certainly had 60% if not more of the flight

B757 has typically 200 seats.

Knock filled 60% say 120 which is 85% of their allocation.

Stripping out the rest they had no competition for passengers and still only managed to fill 60% of the available seating.

Load factors of that magnitude do not support a viable service.

[Angry Rebel]

@AerRyan Perhaps we should continue on the Cork thread, but I am not incorrect. I have directly read a technical report prepared on the subject (ie Rny 17/35 in Cork for aircraft range) and the aircraft types I quoted can operate at 100% payload assumption, using standard weather assumptions.

If you still persist in disagreeing please outline your source.

[Runway_approach]

Your calculations are wrong! Knock had 120 seats available to sell and on a season average sold 102 seats of their allocation. They had no ability to sell the remaining 80 seats which were allocated to Liverpool airport so Im failing to see your point on this. My overall point is they performed quite well on JFK / BOS services with a little known airline who had zero brand recognition in the West of Ireland and the US. You would assume if a big name like United or Aer Lingus operated a season twice weekly service between may and september it would drive the load factor and performance even better - we will never know unless one of them takes a chance in the coming years!