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Old 22nd Jan 2016, 10:52
  #2321 (permalink)  
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If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck....it is a duck

And it's still a duck, even after you've spent £20m trying to convince yourself otherwise.

And in PIK's case, it had duck written all over it long before NS declared that it could be made a viable commercial business.

Whilst I hugely admire her, she's not going to be proved right on this one unless easyjet re-engineer the cost of space travel.
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Old 22nd Jan 2016, 12:39
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But you've just pointed out the major flaw in the "passenger flights can work from Prestwick" argument. You suggest that Prestwick might have to buy back more Ryanair flights which can only mean the Scottish tax payer stumping up yet more money.
You don't need to "buy back" Ryanair. They used the airport in the first place because they got a better deal than GLA was prepared to offer. Now GLA has offered them a deal that they found acceptable. If this was to disappear, then PIK would become the better option again, and they may well switch a few services back.

No buy back, no discounts, just a continuation of the previous agreements.
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Old 22nd Jan 2016, 12:50
  #2323 (permalink)  
 
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There's a major flaw in your assumption. Your assumption that Ryanair are the same airline that they used to be, they are not. They are more central airport focused now and a full move back to PIK is very unlikely.
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Old 22nd Jan 2016, 15:36
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Yep, Ryanair are leaving the Charlerois and Prestwicks of this world behind and moving more centrally.

Glasgow is hardly LHR or CDG, so they won't move back and any expansion in the west will be from there you'd assume. Also as previously said with the rapid growth of EDI there is no FR monopoly in Scotland at PIK now where people would have travelled from the East Coast all the way to Prestwick for a bargain.
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Old 22nd Jan 2016, 17:59
  #2325 (permalink)  
 
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I would assume that as long as PIK is prepared to have them (in terms of running a large terminal for very few flights) Ryanair's sunshine routes will stay there as if GLA was to offer a sweetheart deal to get FR to move them then GLA would have to offer the same deal to those carriers already operating those routes at GLA. Nothing I have seen written by or about PIK's management impresses me in the slightest. If someone says that they might close or mothball the terminal and either chuck FR out or provide them with a portakabin to process their pax, then I might feel that someone was seeing the light and would be willing to concentrate on freight and other business. PIK has got something that neither EDI nor GLA has and that is a full length runway which for widebody freighters is ideal.
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Old 22nd Jan 2016, 18:23
  #2326 (permalink)  
 
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I have a hunch that FR will move more of its operation TO GLA by summer 2017.

I believe GLA has an expansion in the pipeline that is starting in a few months in view of being completed for S17. somewhere in the region of 4 new stands to accommodate further aircraft at peak times.

Tie this in with the fact FR weren't allowed to operate to destinations already served by 2 carriers for the first two years and it makes a lot of sense.

The only reason PIK is under government control is because they wanted votes for the Independence campaign. A total waste pf public money keeping it going.
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Old 22nd Jan 2016, 18:41
  #2327 (permalink)  
 
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"UK Outbound Market :
Thomson, Jet2, Thomas Cook, Virgin - all are happiliy using GLA with facilities like lounges with daylight and stands with airbridges. PIK cannot begin to offer this. TOM, TCX and LS have crew bases and history and see nothing in splitting ops or moving to PIK."

I feel the one of the main issues is the terminal. Check in is done in a big barn and air side is awful, with no views etc. Certainly when we transfer through PIK it looks dreary and dated

I do have a soft spot for PIK and the air side crew are always great and I do hope they pull it off for the sake of all the workers

Last edited by rob39; 22nd Jan 2016 at 18:53.
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Old 23rd Jan 2016, 17:27
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I do have a soft spot for PIK and the air side crew are always great and I do hope they pull it off for the sake of all the workers
Great sentiment, and I and lots of others share that. It is a crying shame that the world changed, and Prestwick found itself totally out in the cold. The reality, and it is reality, is that it is currently goosed, in every way, and no one, has any bright ideas. I was with a guy last week, he mentioned and discussed the search for a new Director, and I told him, in my view, it was a poisoned chalice. There was a limited future. He disagreed, argued with me, but it was all based on someone resurrecting the past glory.

What it actually needs is an Airbus, ala Toulouse, a Boeing, ala Seattle, but to attract, even if it were possible, they would want it for nothing, and that I am afraid, is the whole problem. It is being totally left behind, and requires, even if a miracle of commercial traffic turned up, massive infrastructure investment. It currently looks dire, in every way.
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Old 23rd Jan 2016, 17:44
  #2329 (permalink)  
 
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What on earth are you talking about ? A Toulouse ? A Seattle ? That would cover half of Ayrshire in concrete. The discussion you lot are fixated on is Ryanair and the terminal building. How often have I told you it's not all about Ryanair ? Many UK airports would love to have the rest.


But there is a sad characteristic about the Prestwick thread on Pprune. That is as soon as somebody posts something positive, derision erupts from others. The cure is not to bother posting the positive, and it is there, but I'll leave that to emerge in the fullness of time.
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Old 23rd Jan 2016, 18:17
  #2330 (permalink)  
 
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I actually think a lot of the posters have their hearts in the right place. In my case I am concerned that the cost of running and maintaining the terminal for a handful of Ryanair flights could pull the whole shooting match down. I did point out in my post above that PIK trumps GLA and EDI runway wise.
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Old 23rd Jan 2016, 18:41
  #2331 (permalink)  
 
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@pik3141

1) How do you envisage breaking even with that terminal building in place?
2) What annual throughput of commercial passengers would it take to break even on the existing cost base?
3) Give me your top three likely airlines that you see as the beginnings of getting you to that number.

I do not see Ryanair growing much if at all but genuinely, let's have a realistic debate on what's likely to happen rather than a donner down the "memory lane" of transatlantic gateway days that cannot ever return with GLA/EDI/PIK competing in an open market. Let's try some specifics?

Btw I passionately supported PIK heart over head for years, my position now is fix it or close it as it has no USP or raison d'etre.
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Old 23rd Jan 2016, 19:14
  #2332 (permalink)  
 
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S1F. You still miss the point. The point is its not all about Ryanair and the terminal. Without Ryanair (in its present form) and the terminal, there is money to be made, and being made every day. As I've previously said, get the cost base right, and yes, that comes without Ryanair. It comes from all the rest.
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Old 23rd Jan 2016, 19:24
  #2333 (permalink)  
 
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PIK3141, respectfully I think S1F gets the point. What about his questions?

Are you suggesting that if the cost base were improved they could attract additional airlines, if so which ones?

PIK had immense competition and it doesn't matter how low they get the costs, GLA is a strong competitor and FR have proven the case of GLA over PIK on the business types, eg STN and then Dublin the numbers have been impressive in terms of growth. Yes they put on more capacity ex GLA, but the PIK DUB route had it been as attractive, they'd have done the same frequency from there.

My view is that if PIK want a sustainable future they need to focus on areas where they can offer a pint of difference, eg cargo etc. Is never going to be fruitful passenger wise.
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Old 23rd Jan 2016, 20:46
  #2334 (permalink)  
 
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When I say its not about Ryanair and the terminal, then how can it be about other passenger airlines ? I said it is about EVERYTHING ELSE !
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Old 23rd Jan 2016, 23:42
  #2335 (permalink)  
 
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Without Ryanair, Prestwick would have to massively downsize. No other private company or commercial airline is touching it.

To say it can "make money" without Ryanair means cutting their costs dramatically also.
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Old 24th Jan 2016, 00:12
  #2336 (permalink)  
 
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I said it is about EVERYTHING ELSE !
Is it fair to say the only way to balance the books and run a surplus on GA, training, cargo and fuel stops is to lose the cost of the 1965 terminal and the aspiration for commercial passenger ops? Is that fair?

There's no money to build a proper loco terminal even if they had someone wanting one and the current facility is a huge drag as it had had nothing but cosmetic tweaks since it opened and it's not attractive to prospective airlines.
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Old 24th Jan 2016, 08:49
  #2337 (permalink)  
 
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What on earth are you talking about ? A Toulouse ? A Seattle ? That would cover half of Ayrshire in concrete. The discussion you lot are fixated on is Ryanair and the terminal building. How often have I told you it's not all about Ryanair ? Many UK airports would love to have the rest.
Sorry, but utterly delusional. You have to ask yourself, what do we have, and what do we want. In its current capacity it is a massive financial drain to the public purse. Private companies previously failed to make it work. PIK3141. Let's ask another question. If it was coming out of your personal wallet, what would you do? Continue to fund it? When would you pull the plug? There is no current business case for PIK. That is sad, and it is not- you lot- being negative. There are few positives here, and in this forum, people would love a brilliant idea that would fix the problem. Unfortunately, none appear to be shining bright.

When RYR increase the network from GLA, which was their goal, sorry, it will be the end of PIK on passenger movements.

So PIK3141, over to you, and when would you stop funding?
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Old 24th Jan 2016, 09:52
  #2338 (permalink)  
 
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So, ignoring any solutions appearing out of leftfield, there seems to some sort of consensus that:

- RYR are the only game in town with regard to PAX;

- that being the case, even if they expand or stay at the current level, they won't generate the revenue to stop the current terminal being a major drain;

- there are many other activities on the field that could survive/prosper without the deadweight of the terminal.

if this is the general view, is there any evidence to support it and what are the prospects of it actually happening?
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Old 24th Jan 2016, 12:39
  #2339 (permalink)  
 
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OK, I've been asked what I would do, so I offer the following :-
Firstly on this subject I'm an amateur as I hope all others are. If you're a professional in any way connected, then you're probably breaching your terms of employment posting here.


I would start by requiring information :-
From PIK :-
What is the current agreement(s) with RYR and when do they expire ?
Did the fabled RYR fee of 50p a head ever exist and does it still exist today ?
The broken down accounts showing cost / revenue from every part of the airfield operation.


From PIK and RYR jointly :-
In winter why do you operate two flights a day with the same aircraft, but different crews when say three aircraft sit at the terminal all day ? Why 1st departure at 0610 ish, last arrival at 11pm ish when two aircraft could be sent out at say 0900 ish, both back at 1600 ish ? The point being tighter hours for terminal opening hence reduced cost and better timings for staff and passengers alike.


From RYR :-
Why did you run down the PIK - STN to one mid day return when the suits required a morning return and an evening return and used those flights ? (Parking cars in the premium car park 1 in front of the terminal for the day.)
Same question wrt DUB ?
Why did you transfer the STN and DUB to GLA, with what must be increased cost in fees and increased cost in flight-time / routing.
Was the DUB transfer just to challenge Aer Lingus ?
Do you remain at PIK just to entice better fees out of GLA / EDI ?
Therefore are you ever going to leave PIK ?


From GLA / EDI Airports
What are RYR paying and for how long are they contracted ?
What do your other Operators think of RYR paying reduced fees if that is the case ?


From GLA / EDI Airlines
If RYR pay reduced fees why do you put up with it ?
Or have your fees reduced too ?


From the Scottish Government :-
What is the boundary by which the value of PIK is judged ?
Is it the Scottish economy ?
Is it the Ayrshire economy ? You claim the value of £60M ?
Is it the Airport and surrounding Aerospace cluster ? Around 3000 jobs ?
Is it the Airport alone ? You claim around 1300 jobs ?
Presumably the politics of shutting PIK and reducing Ayrshire to a commuter dormitory are not attractive ?


From the Scottish / UK Governments :-
I note the recent investment by Spirit of £4.1M in a new paint facility, and the £7M in the new Coastguard facility. I note HMS Gannet continues as a Merlin TDY facility and has a several year Joint Warrior commitment for fixed wing types. PIK seems the No 1 diversion for Brize, and the No 1 onload / offload alternative to Brize. Plus all other military operations.
Care to state the strategic value of PIK ? Any why should the P8s not be PIK based rather than building new hangars and taxiways at Lossiemouth ?


Notes :-
Today I note several exec jets, 3 training visits by Virgin B789, an MD11 freight charter, a F50 rugby charter and the first of 3 Cargolux B747Fs due this evening which operate in the next 24 hours. The 747s, at the weights they land at and take-off at, need every metre of that runway.


Having used the terminal last September and often before, I don't actually think it is that bad. I've had worse boarding Easyjet at GLA and RYR at EDI. There are people in my office living in Clydebank and Linwood who choose to fly from PIK, not GLA.


MRO activity exists with the 5 bay RYR hangars and hopefully will soon be restored in the Polar hangar beyond ad hoc and that Thomas Cook 757.


Finally :-
Get me the answers I ask for above, then I'll tell you what I would do about it, although I suspect I already know, and one way or the other, RYR would not like it.
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Old 24th Jan 2016, 13:27
  #2340 (permalink)  
 
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what significant costs do you talk of transferring FR from GLA to PIK? A change in wind direction could outweigh the tiny fuel difference.
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