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Old 13th Aug 2015, 16:50
  #2241 (permalink)  
 
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BEFORE Ryanair, PIK made a profit out of a daily Fed Ex DC-10.
Yes, and those were the leanest of lean machines where firefighters loaded baggage. Then control over costs was lost, to get back there, you would need to do what Matthew Hudson did and slash the staff and offer the remaining staff a fraction of their previous wages. That's how they stayed afloat, they cut costs to the bones and multi-tasked driven by an expat businessman.

Not something the SNP government is ever going to do, therefore, #screwed.
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Old 13th Aug 2015, 17:09
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While I have no personal knowledge of the condition of PIK's runway, runway deterioration is largely linked to the amount of usage so I wouldn't expect there to be much of a problem there, although I suppose the circuit training constitutes quite a lot of movements.
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Old 13th Aug 2015, 17:19
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I'm not sure about 'droves' of passengers - pax numbers were down 33% in June. And the last CAA survey (admittedly quite old now) showed only 2.5% of PIK's pax had an origin/destination outside Scotland.

Scarily the Audit Scotland report didn't even consider any scenario under which PIK's traffic dropped - they just looked at a range of positive growth rates. So the implications for future public funding of PIK are likely to be much worse than anything in the Audit report. When will taxpayers wake up to this?

Last edited by BasilBush; 13th Aug 2015 at 19:09.
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Old 13th Aug 2015, 19:53
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Great to have so many PIK "experts" on the thread!
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Old 13th Aug 2015, 20:35
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Tiger8, not experts, just looking at the facts. The audited accounts, and I would be the first to admit, can be made to look like, frankly anythingjust ask Fred the Shed, are adjusted in general to make things look better. Cheese us, if that is the best they can get, it is truly sunk.

Yes, it is a hard one to swallow, it has a lot of history, but it is supposed to be an airport. Large airports, International ones at that, make money. If it were positioned near Paisley, it would, could be another Manchester. But, GLA and EDI are built on the foundations of 21st century travel (poetic licence with regards GLA), low co to the sun, next to the housing estates, and International hub transfer connectivity. If BA, or Quatas, or KLM had wanted a hub at PIK, it would have happened years ago. Doubt it is coming anytime soon.....
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Old 13th Aug 2015, 21:06
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And why would BA, Quatas as you call it, or KLM want a hub at Prestwick ? Or GLA or EDI ? Totally irrelevant. Getting real instead of talking rubbish, with for example Cargolux, Air France, Volga Dnepr, USAF and CAF heavies yesterday, plus the lesser types, why would that not be profitable if the cost base was right ? Multiple visits by Virgin today. There are probably a dozen airfields in the UK that would love to get such traffic. Unfortunately every time the Prestwick thread is re-activated, those of negative vibes see it as cue to spout forth. Therefore positive news does not get posted. I can think of three such positives over recent months all of which will pay proper money unlike giving away hangars at uneconomic rates. Perhaps one reason why the SNP support the place is the wider aviation cluster ? Nobody has seen fit to post today's £4.1M investment in that cluster a few feet from the runway. The bottom line is that there are about 4000 jobs in the cluster, worth £60M per year to the economy so said. The airshow alone is stated to be worth £2M to the towns of Prestwick and Ayr and has an impressive line-up. So perhaps instead of worrying about Ryanair, some of you should get the perspective of the wider economic and for that matter strategic considerations ? After all, there is public tax money invested in trams, trains, bridges, et all, which I am not going to use, but I keep a sense of what is required for the greater good. And that greater good certainly includes Prestwick continuing as an airfield. The runway is a Scottish national asset.
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Old 13th Aug 2015, 21:24
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Ok, so explain the losses then? Where are you getting, at least circa £13m, savings? This is minimum what is required to break even.

And, are you seriously telling us that 4000 jobs, and 60m in the local economy, is dependent on PIK?

I lived in Ayr for ten years. I am aware of the local economy
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Old 13th Aug 2015, 22:07
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Can someone link the £4.1M investment please?

I remember Hangar 90 becoming a centre of turboprop excellence, the Queen rolling out the J41 etc. Behind the PR, the practicalities of making money in this business are very harsh. PIK3141 makes a great case, there is a load of commercial non passenger traffic using the business.

Are we mainly in agreement that IF they can match cost base to income then we've got a chance of turnaround? The key disagreement is those who hanker to hang onto terminal traffic and passengers, I think that's dragging the rest down. Downsize to profitability is the only way surely? Keep mainteneance, local flying, training, cargo, GA, Biz, none of which need the ancient terminal and get out of that £ hole. No airline I can see will ever put enough passengers through PIK to turn a profit let alone an ROI to fix that dilapidated terminal.

Anyone think that's inaccurate and if so, name your airline?
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Old 14th Aug 2015, 10:05
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Skip, good points, but raises the classic Catch 22. Airport=passengers. Passengers=facility to transit them. Government focus=passengers. If you remove the large cost drain (Passenger Terminal), you remove the passengers. The only show in town re passengers is RYR. RYR=no revenue. A classic conundrum, for anyone, and that includes the new Mgt team. Ideally a very hungry FBO to run it may work, but not sure that is on the radar.

The strategic focus would be on a freight hub, taking as much of everything else as is possible. However, 6 movements a day, as borne out by the beginning of this month, it would need to be a very low cost base. My understanding is that the local council/government, still require business rates to be paid????? Not sure the detail here.
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Old 14th Aug 2015, 12:31
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I think that yes the airport is viable in some form and it can turn a profit without a doubt. With passengers too!
But capex is required, and throwing money at the current terminal as is whats been happening is just delaying the inevitable. The walls look nice and clean with the new coat of paint but people still trip over the buckets catching the drips from the leaking roof whenever it rains (and yes it knows how to rain here!). The new duty free looks nice but in winter passengers will be shivering from the draughts as the money used for heating is literally blown out the windows.

The solution to retain pax ops is a basic new design low cost terminal. Several ex-PIK destinations have such buildings that could be used as an example of efficiency. RZE is probably handling the same amount of pax that PIK now is with the reduced schedule this year. Or even BZG, while handling less pax now, is capable of handling as many pax as PIK does. All nicely designed, modern, simple to run buildings.

The area surrounding the airport is capable of providing over 2 million passengers per year to the airport; this is historic fact. The population isn't getting smaller, the recession is over. The airport simply can't compete in its current form with the other 2 airports which have invested in their infrastructure.

A few other hypothetical questions;
Does the airport really need 24 hour radar approach control? Revert to procedural arrivals for the wee hours and keep just tower.

On the same topic, does it really need full RFSS 24 hours? Reduce it to CAT5 overnight (still suitable as an alternate for narrow body arrivals to GLA/EDI).

How much does it cost to keep the runway lights switched on overnight?

Runway 03/21; is it really worth the odd delayed or diverted flight on stormy winters days when the crosswind on 12/30 is out of limits to justify keeping it open? Only PA28s, etc use it normally.

Staff; is it me or are there always a lot of people milling around? I've seen first hand in other small airports where 1 person does checkin, then assists with boarding and then prepares the load sheet and dispatches the aircraft. Even in DUB, the dispatcher mans one of the boarding gate desks scanning boarding passes.
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Old 15th Aug 2015, 08:46
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737Aviator, a very good post and I agree with the majority of your post. I would however keep 21/03. More often or not as I`m sure you`ll know, the prevailing wind is from the Southwest and it`s used quite a bit.
I was told lst year, that if they close the terminal for a full year, then they would be eligible for a massive grant to upgrade it. Don`t know if there is any truth in that however.
More changes to the front of the terminal after the airshow!
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Old 15th Aug 2015, 09:59
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The "massive grant" being the Scottish Government giving money to itself?
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Old 15th Aug 2015, 12:42
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Actually, no. It was a European grant I believe. Sorry to disappoint!
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Old 15th Aug 2015, 19:09
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Both Scottish Gov or EU grants, both come from HM Treasury.
Worth remembering.
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Old 15th Aug 2015, 21:21
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What this airport needs is to develop the areas of its business thst it can profit from and differentiate from the competition with.

The competitive landscape is too great, so I'd suggest exiting the passenger flying market. Glasgow international has scored Ryanair and PIK will always be a good card to play for FR in bargaining with GLA. Any growth in services ex PIK will as a result of competition with GLA come with very limited return. Therefore it is my view that passenger operations are not sustainable ex PIK. The only way it can continue is by way of government funding. I don't know how this is justifiable given proximity of GLA.

If PIK did exit passenger ops, where would Ryanair stand in terms of its maintenance base/ hangar???
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Old 16th Aug 2015, 08:00
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If PIK did exit passenger ops, where would Ryanair stand in terms of its maintenance base/ hangar???
As long as the airport stays open I doubt anything would change. Last winter they had almost daily positioning flights to and from GLA which I presume were for the purpose of bringing aircraft for maintenance. So effectively passenger ops weren't providing the entire source of aircraft for the hangar. Crew for test and positioning flights would be the only thing lost, but they're just a short taxi ride away from GLA if needed anyway.
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Old 16th Aug 2015, 08:35
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Daily positioning flights? I dont recall that apart from the launch of the base and move of two units to GLA
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Old 16th Aug 2015, 10:06
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Almost daily; there were several per week, often one per day, sometimes with a few days gap in between up until mid March or thereabouts (guess it depends on the length of the engineering checks on each individual frame at the hangar). Ask anyone at the airport, or indeed at GLA, and they can confirm that. Anyone who thinks Ryanair must keep pax ops PIK due to heavy maintenance in the hangar should think again.

Oh, and just one aircraft went to GLA when the base opened, and the base still has one aircraft.
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Old 16th Aug 2015, 10:30
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It's worth remembering BA have a huge (taxpayer subsidised and built) maintenance facilty in Cardiff and no passenger offering. Heavies are flown empty from and to LHR.
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Old 29th Aug 2015, 21:49
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I was looking at the movements site recently and noticed there was only one mention of the Air France Cargo flight mentioned in August (Sunday 2nd).
Does anybody know if it's still operating? I know AF/KLM cargo operations are struggling, so has the PIK route been a victim of cutbacks?
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