SHANNON

[Vapor]

The Travel Tax has more to due with causing reduced yeilds for Airlines rather than any reduction in tourists caused by it.
That's why all the airlines agree about it.

[Tom the Tenor]

Hmm, interesting that the Minister for Putting Foot in Mouth is waffling about this topic. We could be really cynical here, you know. The govenment could just get away with abolishing the Travel Tax only to reintroduce it again after December's budgest as a Carbon Tax thanks to the Green Party whom have little credibility left these days except to be known in the end for wanting to introduce a Carbon Tax and Water Charges before they are finally despatched after the next General Election.

[ryan2000]

Air tax

I see that an oppositon TD had the neck to ask the Minister to grant Shannon an exemption from the tax. This would put Cork, Kerry and Galway at an immediate disadvantage.

I accept that it reduces yields but I'm not sure if it's such a critical factor when people decide where to travel.

Having said that the best of luck to airlnes in their efforts to get the Government to change their mind. However they'd get more support if they hadn't so many stealth charges.

[Charlie Roy]

RTÉ Business: Cutbacks in holidays, business trips

• Irish people holidaying in Ireland: Up 9.4%
• Irish people holidaying abroad: Down 6.5%
• Foreigners holidaying in Ireland: Down (don't have the figures)

If this tax is scrapped, what can we expect?

• Irish people holidaying in Ireland: Down
• Irish people holidaying abroad: Up
• Foreigners holidaying in Ireland: Up

So it's a lot of swings and round-abouts. And let's face it, most Shannon routes are used by Irish to go abroad than the opposite. So scrapping the tax will just send more euros out of the region, no?

All that said, I would still like to see the tourist tax scrapped

[Charlie Roy]

Ryanair's Summer Schedule

Ryanair's summer schedule finally fits together for their single Shannon based aircraft.
The aircraft will be fully utilised, on most days being active from 06:30 to 00:20!
A Stansted based aircraft will operate the daily evening STN - SNN rotation.
It remains to be seen if routes such as Bristol, Edinburgh, Prestwick, Birmingham, Charleroi, Alicante etc will be operated by aircraft from other bases...

Here is the utilisation of the Shannon based aircraft for Summer 2010
Mon: Stansted, Gatwick, Wroclaw, Nantes
Tue: Stansted, Gatwick, Beauvais, Palma
Wed: Stansted, Gatwick, Malaga
Thu: Stansted, Gatwick, Wroclaw, Nantes
Fri: Stansted, Gatwick, Beauvais, Palma
Sat: Stansted, Gatwick, Tenerife
Sun: Beauvais, Gatwick, Malaga

[eu01]

Shannon Airport discovered the hard way last week that Michael O’Leary was not bluffing with his recent threats to dramatically reduce Ryanair’s services at the airport - writes David Clerkin, see O'Leary plays his ace in Shannon costs wrangle | The Post

[EI-BUD]

Jet2

I wonder has the SAA spoken to Jet2? Would a deal close to the Ryanair previous deal of €1 per passenger lure them in? And incentivise them with a scheme that rewarded them when the exceed x number of passengers. They could look at a base something along the lines of BFS ie sun routes in the summer and small winter schedule. Perhaps Jet2 would have an appetite for this with FR opening a base at LBA?

If any operator makes a serious stab at SNN no doubt FR would be back in, in a shot. and would that put SAA management on a strong bargaining position, well to some extent?

I think AerLingus had said recently that some short haul opportunities may arise at SNN but I cant see that happening given Aer Lingus' challenges at the moment.

EI-BUD

[ryan2000]

The problem is that FR will continue to have a base at SNN and indeed ORK and could quickly react to undermine any move by Jet 2 or any other low cost carrier.

[GELOFAB]

may be this is time to approach easyjet. Thanks to FR demands the cost base has been cut and so ,maybe, that could be attractive for FR's main competitor. Shannon has proven that over 3 million passenger are willing to fly in and out of there.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by GELOFAB

may be this is time to approach easyjet.

Perhaps you have forgotten Ryanair's response last time easyJet tried to fly into Ireland? The fact of the matter is that - as ryan2000 says - Ryanair will not tolerate competition coming in and will retaliate massively to drive them away. Indeed, the firm expectation that Ryanair will do so means that competitors don't even think about entering the Irish market against FR.

[GELOFAB]

so what? why you all so afraid of what FR will do or won't do? This is precisely why this is the time to forget about FR and look for any possible option for Shannon airport. Waiting for MOL permit to do business is ridicule.

[ryan2000]

New business for SNN?

GELOFO, The problem is that if FR react to a competitor they will almost certainly cause them to lose millions on any Shannon operation.

Only Easyjet among the low costs have the resources to engage in that sort of price war and even they withdrew after 20 months of head to head competition in 2006.

Having said that the choice of Gatwick wasn't the best. They didn't qualify for any incentives into Shannon and Cork. They'd probably hold out for longer if they operated a route that qualified for marketing support as it would give them an edge over any potential competitor.

Of course the fact that the Irish economy has gone pear shaped will probably also deter any overseas carrier from launching new routes in the short term.

[iwhak]

The FR deal at SNN was always a marriage made in hell, as was well documented by some of us at the time. The divorce happened exactly as predicted and bang on cue. However, that's history and it's time to move along. FR scaled down it's SNN operation in my view because irrespective of pax numbers the yield was not there. MOL issued many warnings in his quarterly reports that SNN was not achieving targets. The Government tax is a handy excuse to justify the cull. MOL does not desert profitable routes.
Feel sorry for the management at SNN who were forced to accept the deal by the then Chairman. However, they now have to move forward and attempt to replace the routes. FR will not return to the vacated routes as under the incenctive scheme they will have to pay full charges, however few airlines will take up the slack, knowing FR are still lurking. The difficulty for SNN however will be how to apply an incentive scheme to a replacement carrier. There is however as always in Ireland as I have referred to before a more deep rooted problem, and that is the lack of a clearly defined aviation policy. Minister for Transport today alluded to the future of the regionals post PSO and that his focus is on rail transport. Knock and Kerry need not gloat either, because their rows with FR are predictable, when the latest 'deal' is up for renewal. FR have been bad for Ireland, in that they have contributed nothing to the country, government have never recognised that the majority of the pax are Irish originating and therefore take money from the economy. I say good riddance from SNN, and wish the management well in attracting new business. It won't be easy.

[GELOFAB]

no my dear ryan2000. the problem here is that a lot of people are afraid, or looks as if they are afraid, of what FR will do or will not do. the fact is that we all know , as iwhak has pointed, that FR will do whatever suits FR regardless anything else, and will stab in the back whichever airport they have to.They have it done in the past and they will try to do it in the future. Well, if SAA wants to survive they have to forget about FR and move on.It won't be easy to atract business into Shannon, but it can be done. Now you have BA flying onto JFK, so well done and off you go.that is the way to follow. Other airports with less population than shannon are working ok out there.If there is a will there is a way.if there is constant fear and "buts" there is no business.

[GELOFAB]

this is the time to go to easy jet or other carriers and offer them better airport charges than to ryanair or at least the promise that ryanair will be charged more money for using SAA that them. if easyjet is still not interested fine, but at least it should be tried.

[Skipness One Echo]

Now you have BA flying onto JFK

Not actually serving Shannon though, since the 1950s.

Am I being thick here but is it not the case that the market's not really there? If Ryanair need to virtually fly for free and still can't make money, isn't that a telling clue?

Aer Lingus serve London but are in no hurry to open up services into Europe due to the threat that Ryanair would jump on the bandwagon. I think easyJet have enough fish to fry without getting into a bloody war in Ryanairs backyard.

[mojave]

Skipness, you can't conclude that there is no market in Shannon from the RYR statements that they weren't making a profit there. It seemed to be RYR policy to overserve Shannon, presumably for some strategic reason. 6 based aircraft was way OTT. I'm sure they could have made a nice profit from 3 at the time.

One unfortunate by-product of the RYR explosion at SNN was the annihilation of the weekly influx of German charters.

[GELOFAB]

Am I being thick here but is it not the case that the market's not really there? If Ryanair need to virtually fly for free and still can't make money, isn't that a telling clue?
Aer Lingus serve London but are in no hurry to open up services into Europe due to the threat that Ryanair would jump on the bandwagon. I think easyJet have enough fish to fry without getting into a bloody war in Ryanairs backyard.

What market do you have in Knock? or in Kerry? or in Galway? answer: there is a market to fly people. If we keep thinking in a way that sounds like as if we are afraid of releasing the wrath of FR ,then, certainly, there will be little hope. But if we think in a way in that, thanks in no small part to FR, SAA has been forced to reduce the airport cost base, then, maybe, there is a hope to keep looking for business out there. As it has happenened with BA.Very limited service to Shannon, very true, but better than nothing.And that is the way to go. The west coast of Ireland will not remain scatterly populated for ever. Is the Government going to close Shannon airport in the meanwhile? There has been over 3 million people flying through Shannon in recent years. for whatever the reasons. but that's the figure.
Now, FR has been playing around with Shannon (and other airports, and millions of customers) for many years. Maybe is time for any airport to start playing and paying back. Maybe is time to go back to FR competitors and make a compromise to offer them better deals than to ryanair, and see if they are interested or not. Nothing personal. Pure business. Like FR does.

[Amelia Earhart]

I thought I might have gotten a rise out of someone on the Belfast forum, if even only for stating that Belfast was in Ireland, but nothing.

Well maybe you guys will have something to say about this.

Belfast city to be 3rd biggest airport in Ireland?

Belfast City was 5th biggest airport in Ireland in 2008.

Rank Airport .................... Passengers

1 ....Dublin ..................... 23,500,000
2 ....Belfast International .. 5,262,354
3 ....Cork ....................... 3,250,000
4 ....Shannon ................. 3,100,000
5 ....Belfast City ............. 2,570,742
6 ....Knock ....................... 630,170
7 ....Derry ........................ 439,033
8 ....Kerry ........................ 420,000
9 ....Galway ...................... 270,000
10 ..Waterford .................. 144,000
11 ..Donegal ....................... 65,537
12 ..Sligo ........................... 44,500†

† Latest available figures are for 2007 (How do you format a table on this forum?)

However Ryanair are virtually pulling the plug on Shannon next Easter if there is no resolution of their dispute leaving only 2 daily flights (about 200,000 pax p.a., down from 1.8 million) which will reduce Shannon to about 1.5 million pax.
O?Leary plays his ace in Shannon costs wrangle | The Post

Cork are predicted to loss 500,000 passengers this year due to the recession reducing ORK to 2.75 million.
Irish Examiner - 2009/04/25: ‘No re-negotiation’ of Cork Airport’s €113m debt

Belfast City however has been bucking the trend with an 8.3% increase (well in August at least). If this increase was reflected on the annual figures then Belfast City would carry some 2.78 million passengers this year.

If the cuts at Shannon go ahead that could therefore mean that in 2010 Belfast City would be the 3rd biggest airport in Ireland.

[Cyrano]

Originally Posted by GELOFAB

What market do you have in Knock? or in Kerry? or in Galway? answer: there is a market to fly people. If we keep thinking in a way that sounds like as if we are afraid of releasing the wrath of FR ,then, certainly, there will be little hope. But if we think in a way in that, thanks in no small part to FR, SAA has been forced to reduce the airport cost base, then, maybe, there is a hope to keep looking for business out there. As it has happenened with BA.Very limited service to Shannon, very true, but better than nothing.And that is the way to go. The west coast of Ireland will not remain scatterly populated for ever. Is the Government going to close Shannon airport in the meanwhile? There has been over 3 million people flying through Shannon in recent years. for whatever the reasons. but that's the figure.
Now, FR has been playing around with Shannon (and other airports, and millions of customers) for many years. Maybe is time for any airport to start playing and paying back. Maybe is time to go back to FR competitors and make a compromise to offer them better deals than to ryanair, and see if they are interested or not. Nothing personal. Pure business. Like FR does.

You are criticising others for being fearful of FR competition, and you're exhorting carriers to be bolder. With respect, I think you are being unrealistic if you think that lower landing fees in SNN will somehow keep FR out.

Let's imagine that SNN says to easyJet (or Jet2, or whoever you like), "hey, come and fly routes from SNN, and we'll only charge you €0.50 per passenger, and we promise that we'll not do any discount deals with Ryanair." Do you imagine that Ryanair will therefore conclude "oh, damn, we lost that one, never mind", and walk away? FR is currently operating DUB-ORK with poor load factors and yields, which they launched in competition with Aer Arann (and therefore are unlikely to have a discount deal) - but they keep operating it to keep the pressure on RE. The history of easyJet's (and before them Go's) failed incursions into Ireland demonstrate FR's aggressive response to competition, with or without discounted airport deals. While I deplore FR's hyper-aggressive approach to competition, it does not surprise me: if you had that many new aircraft arriving that you had to fill, you too would be willing to take some short-term financial sacrifices in order to keep markets to yourself in the longer term.

You're suggesting that other carriers should be brave and should start routes out of SNN, effectively calling Ryanair's bluff. Frankly, if I were a shareholder in the likes of easyJet or Jet2, I would regard this as suicidal folly - certainly not a wise use of cash. Faced with a choice of new route startups, one which carries a risk of a war with Ryanair and another which doesn't, which makes more sense? Especially since - with all due respect - the potential return from the SNN market is not so lucrative as to justify the risks.

You may deplore this timidity in the face of Ryanair and wish it were otherwise. I can entirely understand that. But it is a perfectly rational timidity. One of the most frequent omissions in startup-company business plans is real consideration of what the competition will do - the assumption is "we're small, so they won't do anything." This is not a safe assumption, even less so when the competitor in question has established its reputation for squashing competition. Please feel free to disagree, go out and raise money for a startup, and fly from SNN. I am not being funny, I'm being sincere. If you feel there's a real business opportunity, go and do it - others' timidity may be your opportunity.