The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

[ORAC]

China has picked it's time well, with Afghanistan and Syria bubbling away and the election due in the USA.....

The South China Sea's Gathering Storm (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444184704577587483914661256.html?mod=WSJ_Opi nion_LEADTop)

All of East Asia is waiting to see how the U.S. will respond to China's aggression..

[BEagle]

U.S. policy with respect to sovereignty issues in Asian-Pacific waters has been that we take no sides, that such matters must be settled peacefully among the parties involved.

Well, that'd be a first...:\

I guess there's no oil then?

[D-IFF_ident]

Australian general to help lead US military push into Pacific | World news | guardian.co.uk (http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/aug/21/australian-general-us-army-pacific)

:ouch:

[ORAC]

China and Japan: two nations locked in mutual loathing (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/9487658/China-and-Japan-two-nations-locked-in-mutual-loathing.html)

The historic enmity between the two countries – now resurfacing in a dispute over sovereignty – threatens stability in East Asia

U.S. Looms Large Over China’s Sovereignty Disputes (http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2012/08/u-s-looms-large-over-asian-sovereignty-disputes/)

[Heathrow Harry]

Possibly loads of oil but whenever anyone tries to take a look-see the other counties all send a gun-boat..........

They really all need to sit around a table and discuss this - without the USA present - they are sovereign states

[GreenKnight121]

China refuses to sit down with everyone involved at once... they insist that the only way they will talk is with one nation at a time, and that all resulting treaties must be between themselves and each other nation individually.

Naturally, the other nations insist that the disputes must be solved "all-at-once" so that there are no contradictory treaties, and so that they can stand together against China.

The UN put out a proposal over a decade ago that assigns all but the very center group of islands to specific nations, but no one has yet accepted that, since it didn't completely solve the issue.

[500N]

" Australian general to help lead US military push into Pacific"


Well we have to help the US, they are a bit heavy handed and
need someone to help them understand the region:O


On a serious note, probably a flow on from Aussie generals being at the top
of the Ops tree in Iraq which seemed to work well.

[Load Toad]

The only time I could imagine China actually acting is when the countries internal socio/economic problems reach a point that stirring up jingoism is the only way to deflect attention away from the governments faults & mistakes.

The CCP is winging it at the moment & best be careful - the mob could just as likely look for domestic targets rather than Japan...

[Heathrow Harry]

Greenknight is correct - the Chinese can only see the table would be them on one side, everyone else on the other and the Americans next door

TBF the Chinese have a reasonable record of negotiating fair boundaries on a one-to-one basis but they'll never sit down if they think its another 19th Century stitch-up

[The Old Fat One]

OASC circa 1960

Well Bloggs, where do think the next conflict might be

I think the Spratleys is a possibility sir.

Top hold bloggs, collect your commission from the office on your left.

OASC circa 1970

Well Bloggs, where do think the next conflict might be

I think the Spratleys is a possibility sir.

Top hold bloggs, collect your commission from the office on your left.

OASC circa 1980

Well Bloggs, where ......

You get my drift

[Heathrow Harry]

problem is that sometimes long term disputes flare up suddenly

think Falklands or the India China Border in '62

best to deal with them when the world is (relatively) quiet

[SRENNAPS]

U.S. policy with respect to sovereignty issues in Asian-Pacific waters has been that we take no sides, that such matters must be settled peacefully among the parties involved.

Well, that'd be a first...


Ehmm not sure that it would be a first.

I seem to remember some words from some yank politician:

On the 25th, Saddam Hussein met with April Glaspie, an American ambassador, in Baghdad. According to an Iraqi transcript of that meeting, Glaspie told the Iraqi delegation, "We have no opinion on the Arab-Arab conflicts." According to Glaspie's own account, she stated in reference to the precise border between Kuwait and Iraq, "(...) that she had served in Kuwait 20 years before; 'then, as now, we took no position on these Arab affairs'."

Sounds like a similar position to me:ugh::ugh:

[ORAC]

Torygraph: China's Revolution Risk (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100019918/chinas-revolution-risk/)

[Ronald Reagan]

The future looks goods for these two nations, as western economies fail a move to a closer economic relationship between China and Russia will make them hugely less reliant on the west.
‘Slowly but surely, China has been winning its rivalry with Japan' — RT (http://rt.com/business/news/apec-russia-china-brics-633/)

Russia's trade with Asia-Pacific region to be more than with EU in 10 years — RT (http://rt.com/business/news/shuvalov-trade-eu-asia-pacific-582/)

Interesting article about Hillary Clinton in China:-
Clinton, China haven't narrowed gaps on Syria, sea (http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-09-05/clinton-asia-conflict/57599324/1)

[ORAC]

I wouldn't make a bet on it Ron - more chance of a land grab by the Chinese for Siberia and the Far east for it's resources....

Russia: The World's Largest Dying Empire (http://alfin2100.********.co.uk/2010/12/russia-worlds-largest-dying-empire.html)

Motherless Russia - Muslims and Chinese Vie For Huge Assets of Dying Nation (http://catholicforum.fisheaters.com/index.php?topic=1588819.0;wap2)

[Ronald Reagan]

Interesting links ORAC.

Most of my Chinese and Russian friends seem to see the importance of their mutual relationship, they view each other as the most reliable of allies. Think the term ''Russia is our brother'' was used! Considering how bad things between them were a few decades back its amazing. But then again look at Vietnam and the USA!

My friends though are a cross selection of civilians and in no way linked to the governments. With the Chinese people I find a general dislike of the government in that they view them as to weak, especially on the Japan issue! In this respect the current Chinese government are a voice of moderation. IF hardliners took over then who knows what will happen.

I think in some ways a very vocal US has driven Russia and China much closer together. They would be fools to allow themselves to ever end up at war, a closer relationship is in the interests of both nations. I don't think either would make that mistake though, their leaderships are probably the most capable governments on the planet. Together they are very powerful indeed. If governments or leaders change however then who knows!

[Jimlad1]

You know, reading all that, I cant help but feel that we'd be a hell of a lot safer if we had SHAR available to send over there and give those naughty foreigners what for... :E

[ORAC]

The whole area seems to be in a frenzy....

China deploys two warships after Tokyo announces disputed island purchase (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9534711/China-deploys-two-warships-after-Tokyo-announces-disputed-island-purchase.html)

[Fareastdriver]

Beagle quoted; I guess there's no oil then?

I operated out of Wenzhou at the end of the nineties. It was to an exploration rig some 125 miles offshore. It was effectively equadistant from China, Taiwan and the Diaoyu Islands. Initial seismic results had promised another Aberdeen but the drilling in this case was unsuccessful. It is still going on but the advances in that area has been gas somewhat further north. However the Chinese are patient and history has proven that the first attempts at oil discovery are not neccessarily successful.

Our biggest problem was that the rig was at the junction of the Chinese and Taiwanese ADIZs. We would keep at 200ft for the last 30 miles on the way in and vise versa so that we weren't disturbed by Su27s or F16s.

Wenzhou had a long history with Jesuit missionaries and as a result it is famous for the beauty of its women. They were right; absolute stunners, every one of them.

[Ronald Reagan]

Thanks for posting the link, very interesting.

I also noted this:-
Mystery over whereabouts of China's leader-in-waiting Xi Jinping - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/9533556/Mystery-over-whereabouts-of-Chinas-leader-in-waiting-Xi-Jinping.html)

[ORAC]

Deep-Water Oil Rigs as Strategic Weapons (http://www.murphyonpiracy.com/2012/09/05/deep-water-oil-rigs-as-strategic-weapons/)

[EffohX]

Thanks to Mao's (and later leaders') one child policy and (like the Indians), the Chinese preference for sons, there are about 25 million more males in their early 20s in China today than females. This has the potential for a social time bomb. I hope the Chinese leadership doesn't think a good long term regional war might help employ, (cull?) and distract all those extra young males.

[Fareastdriver]

I know quite a few Chinese who think that China is bounded by ethnic origins.
They look forward to the day that Singapore becomes part of China.

[Load Toad]

If you asked them to find it and get there they'd be involved in a multi vehicle pile up before they'd got 10 minutes out of Guangzhou.

[ORAC]

And now the Philippines!!!!

AW&ST: Tension Between Philippines And China Grows (http://www.aviationweek.com/Article.aspx?id=/article-xml/AW_09_03_2012_p22-486898.xml)

US to set up command post facing South China Sea? (http://english.sina.com/world/2012/0905/503807.html)

[Fareastdriver]

I had to laugh at the AW&ST article. It started off by saying that China would teach the Phillipines a lesson like it did to North Vietnam.
The PLA had its nose rubbed in the mud by the Vietnamese.

[Fareastdriver]

Some more piccies on Xinhua.

Editor's choice: China's military drills - Xinhua | English.news.cn (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2012-09/13/c_131847665_10.htm)

[ORAC]

Japanese Companies Close Facilities in China as Tensions Rise (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/18/business/global/japanese-companies-close-facilities-in-china-as-tensions-rise.html)

China-Japan Dispute Over Islands Risks $340 Billion Trade (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-17/china-japan-dispute-over-islands-risks-340-billion-trade.html)

US wades into China-Japan island dispute with missile defense deal (http://rt.com/news/china-japan-war-panetta-290/)

[Fareastdriver]

I hope they haven't wrecked my favourite teppanyaki restaurant in Shekou. The steak there is fantastic.

The Chinese are neurotic about their borders; it's a hangover from their perceived injustices by the western nations in the 19th century. They can rattle on about the written proof that they were wherever it was 1,500 years ago because then the Chinese were the big traders in the Far East. However, those events have been overtaken by history and this is something that Beijing is unwilling to grasp.

They are not going to annoy the Japanese too much; there is too much trade involved and certainly not the Americans, who are their 2nd largest market after the EU.

The usual shock, horror, thousands demonstrating in the street. TV running film of the Nanking Massacre where you see young women being dragged off by Japanese soldiers and rows of decapitated bodies. You could get the same thousands into a Chinese shopping mall without being crowded.
Most of them would not have a clue where Diaoyu Islands are and those who looked at a map would not notice the undisputed Japanese islands some 80 miles away. It's all happened before and will happen again.

The leadership in China is going to change soon. This will be forgotten for now.

[ORAC]

Telegraph: China, Japan and the world’s Agadir Crisis (1911) (http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100020173/china-japan-and-the-worlds-agadir-crisis-1911/)

The Corner: How Close are Japan and China to War? (http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/327794/how-close-are-japan-and-china-war-michael-auslin)

[ORAC]

Commentary: The Coming Global Disorder (http://www.commentarymagazine.com/article/the-coming-global-disorder/)

[Fareastdriver]

Commentary: The Coming Global Disorder

I do not know why they are bleating about the Paracel Islands for? It is, and always has been, a part of China. This fact has been recognised in the past by Germany, France, the UK, the USA and Japan.

Vietnams interest stems from the fact that when the French ran Viet Nam they invaded The Paracel Islands. The Japanese kicked them out during their advance in 1942 even they were not at war with Vichy France. They were surrendered back to China after the war which is the Taiwanese claim for them but by then the Communists had taken over them as part of the civil war. That is the basis of the Peoples Republic's claim.

The Vietnamese had a go at getting them again and were repelled quite easily. It led to a very embarrassed American adviser doing the walk from China to Hong Kong over the Lo Wu bridge.

Try Google Earthing Woody Island Paracel Islands and you will be left in no doubt about who owns it.

[Heathrow Harry]

China's first aircraft carrier has entered into service, the Defence Ministry says. The 300m (990ft) Liaoning - named after the province where it was refitted - is a refurbished Soviet ship purchased from Ukraine.

For now the carrier has no operational aircraft and will be used for training.

But China says the vessel, which has undergone extensive sea trials, will increase its capacity to defend state interests.

But China's new carrier is more a symbol of a future capability than a potent naval threat itself. Getting into the carrier business takes time; a whole range of skills has to be learnt; and carriers have to operate with other ships, requiring a new mindset across the navy as a whole. It could be a steep learning curve, but China is moving ahead steadily, taking the first steps on the path to having a fully-fledged carrier force.


It also comes weeks ahead of a party congress expected to see the transition of power to a new generation of Chinese leaders.

The Liaoning was formally handed over to the navy at a ceremony attended by top Chinese leaders at Dalian Port, state-run Xinhua news agency said.

"Having the aircraft carrier enter the ranks will be of important significance in raising the overall fighting capacity of our nation's navy to a modern level," China's Defence Ministry said in a statement.

The vessel will "increase [China's] capacity to defend, develop its capacity to co-operate on the high seas in dealing with non-traditional security threats and will be effective in defending the interests of state sovereignty, security and development", it added.

The Liaoning, formerly known as the Varyag, was constructed in the 1980s for the Soviet navy but was never completed.

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the Varyag sat in Ukraine's dockyards. A Chinese company with links to China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) bought the ship just as Soviet warships were being cut for scrap. It said it wanted to turn the Varyag into a floating casino in Macau and in 2001 the ship was towed to China.

The Chinese military confirmed in June 2011 that it was being refitted to serve as the nation's first aircraft carrier.

Analysts say it will take years to outfit the carrier with aircraft and make it fully operational. But Chinese officials say that the Liaoning advances the country's military modernisation.

"The development of aircraft carriers is an important part of China's national defence modernisation, in particular its naval forces, and this aircraft carrier is an essential stepping stone toward its own more advanced aircraft carriers in the future," China's Rear Admiral Yang Yi wrote in state-run China Daily newspaper (http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2012-09/25/content_15779764.htm).

The carrier will be mostly used "for scientific research and training missions" so China could build "a more advanced aircraft carrier platform in the future", he added.

[Ronald Reagan]

Regarding the ongoing island dispute:-
Taiwan, Japan fire water cannon in disputed island controversy | Fox News (http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/09/25/taiwan-japan-fire-water-cannon-in-disputed-island-controversy/)

[Fareastdriver]

It's like the Cod War all over again, except it's oil.

[hillberg]

Follow Hillery Clinton :rolleyes:, The bitch on wheels, Every where she goes all he11 is let loose.:eek: been watching this from day one. It will get hot mid november just for the lap dogs master (Obama):= It's Chinas land,:D

[Fareastdriver]

China has published a white paper outlining their claim to the Diaoyu Islands. It's a long and interesting read, available by courtesy of Xinhuanet.

Full Text: Diaoyu Dao, an Inherent Territory of China - Xinhua | English.news.cn (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-09/25/c_131872152.htm)

[Heathrow Harry]

well it would wouldn't it?

These sort of claims can only be sorted out by negotiation between the parties or with a reference to the Hague and the sooner they start talking the better

[Blacksheep]

Having the aircraft carrier enter the ranks will be of important significance in raising the overall fighting capacity of our nation's navy to a modern levelIt seems to me that while the USA held overwhelming carrier group force, they could easily deploy carrier groups for willy-waving "gunboat diplomacy" purposes. Once the carrier group becomes the international symbol of naval strngth and an arms race in carrier groups takes place, we have the same situation as when the Royal Navy was faced with the battleship arms race at the beginning of the 20th century. In the event, the battleship found itself outmoded and superseded by the carrier and the Royal Navy has declined from being the undisputed ruler of the waves to relative insignificance in the global order.

I can't help feeling that in the age of the cruise missile, the carrier may be about to go the way of the battleship. Hell, even the Brunei navy can sink an aircraft carrier, or the whole carrier group if they felt like sending all their boats out - as long as their opponent wasn't expecting it. I'm a short-arse myself and learned early in my school career that the best way to deal with big boy bullies was to go directly for their goolies while they were still talking tough (think Pearl Harbour). :rolleyes:

[Lonewolf_50]

Blacksheep, good points on capital ships and their "day in the sun."

I'll suggest to you that torpedoes remain a simpler way to sink a carrier than cruise missiles. The concession I'll make to the cruise missile approach is the concept of the saturation raid: quantity does indeed have a quality all its own ... if you can keep one's own guidance methods from interfering with one another as the attacking party.

Mines and torpedoes operate under the premise that

It is easier to sink a ship by letting water in from the bottom (torpedo) than it is to do so by trying to let the air out from the top (bomb/missile). :E

[Heathrow Harry]

forget about guidance - if you get close enough unguided will hit somewhere and they aren't armoured

[Rossian]

I still have small scars from being shouted at by a USN admiral "Son, our carriers WILL NOT BE SUNK, so F%&*ing unsink it!!" (I'd put its flight deck unusable due to a list induced by a torpedo attack in the Aegean, during a CPX)
What really scared me was that right beside his backbone I think he believed his statement.

The Ancient Mariner

[ORAC]

Defense News: China-Japan Island Dispute Could Become Flashpoint (http://www.defensenews.com/article/20130504/DEFREG03/305040006/China-Japan-Island-Dispute-Could-Become-Flashpoint)

TAIPEI — While North Korea has garnered attention as Asia’s top hotspot, experts worry that the real problem is between Beijing and Tokyo over the Japanese-controlled Senkaku Islands, which China calls the Diaoyu Islands.

Over the past month, rhetoric has soared between new nationalistic leaders in China and Japan as each deploys hardware to the region.

China’s increased ship and air patrols to the islands have prompted an unprecedented response from Japan: Keep out or we will use force to keep you out. Japanese Defense Minister Itsunori Onodera said, “Japan is determined to protect its land, water and air.” And to help its key ally, America’s top military leaders have told Beijing that if the shooting starts, Washington is treaty- and duty-bound to back Tokyo.

That, in turn, has prompted China to declare the islands a “core interest” in a bid to force Tokyo and Washington to back down, a move that’s unlikely to work...........

[Heathrow Harry]

ORAC - that may be news in the USA but its been getting full scale coverage for months in the UK and elsewhere

[Ronald Reagan]

One cannot blame modern Japan for what happend 70+ years ago however in the eyes of many in the region in places such as China, Vietnam, Korea and other nations there is still much resentment over what happened back then. Its not helpful for the Japanese PM to come out with things like this:-
Japan PM dismisses WWII war crimes trials as 'victors' justice' - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/9930041/Japan-PM-dismisses-WWII-war-crimes-trials-as-victors-justice.html)

When one thinks of Japan pre 1945 and also much of the tension in the region today one needs to think of the following. I urge you to read the links:-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_war_crimes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banka_Island_massacre
At mid-morning the ship’s officer returned with about twenty Japanese soldiers. They ordered all the wounded men capable of walking to travel around a headland. The nurses heard a quick succession of shots before the Japanese soldiers came back, sat down in front of the women and cleaned their bayonets and rifles.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banka_Island_massacre#cite_note-Klemen-1) A Japanese officer ordered the remaining twenty two nurses and one civilian woman to walk into the surf.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banka_Island_massacre#cite_note-Klemen-1) A machine gun was set up on the beach and when the women were waist deep, they were machine-gunned. All but Sister Lt Vivian Bullwinkel (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vivian_Bullwinkel) were killed.[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banka_Island_massacre#cite_note-Klemen-1)
Shot in the diaphragm, Bullwinkel was unconscious when she washed up on the beach and was left for dead. She evaded capture for ten days, but was eventually caught and imprisoned. She survived the war and gave evidence of the massacre at a war crimes trial in Tokyo in 1947.[2] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banka_Island_massacre#cite_note-2)
To kill nurses in this way, its unspeakable.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle...and#War_crimes (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Wake_Island#War_crimes)
Rear Admiral Shigematsu Sakaibara (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shigematsu_Sakaibara) ordered the execution of the 98 captured American civilian workers remaining on the island, kept to perform forced labor. They were taken to the northern end of the island, blindfolded and executed with a machine gun.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parit_Sulong_Massacre
The wounded prisoners of war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoners_of_war) were kicked and beaten with rifle butts by the Imperial Guards. At least some were tied up with wire in the middle of the road, machine-gunned, had petrol (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrol) poured over them, were set alight and (in the words of Russell Braddon (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Braddon)) were "after their incineration — [were] systematically run over, back and forwards, by Japanese driven trucks."[1] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parit_Sulong_Massacre#cite_note-1) Anecdotal accounts by local people also reported POWs being tied together with wire and forced to stand on a bridge, before a Japanese soldier shot one, causing the rest to fall into the Simpang Kiri river and drown.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palawa...lawan_Massacre (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palawan#The_Palawan_Massacre)
During World War II (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II), in order to prevent the rescue of prisoners of war (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoners_of_war) by the advancing allies, on 14 December 1944, units of the Japanese Fourteenth Area Army (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Fourteenth_Area_Army) (under the command of General Tomoyuki Yama****a (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tomoyuki_Yama****a)) herded the remaining 150 prisoners of war at Puerto Princesa (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puerto_Princesa) into three covered trenches which were then set on fire using barrels of gasoline. Prisoners who tried to escape the flames were shot down.[9] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palawan#cite_note-9) Others attempted to escape by climbing over a cliff that ran along one side of the trenches, but were later hunted down and killed. Only 11 men escaped the slaughter and between 133 and 141 were killed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanking_Massacre
No wonder there is still much tension between China and Japan!!!
http://images.ibsrv.net/ibsrv/res/src:www.pprune.org/get/images/misc/progress.gif

[Heathrow Harry]

yeah - and we killed & burnt 100,000 Japanese civilians in a flash (literally)

"War is cruelty, and you cannot refine it" - Sherman

[Yamagata ken]

In the 21st Century, Japan is a pluralist democracy, ruled by law. China is not and wants part of Japan. Japan says no. Ronald Reagan comes out of the woodwork with historical grievances.

Are these the same grievances as Catholic vs. Protestant in NI? How about the Balkans, historical grievances Catholic, orthodox:Muslim? How about the Middle East? Christian:Jew:Muslim? How about white expansion in America? No crimes? No slavery?

Japan followed the early 20th Century European model of military dictatorship and colonial exapansion. Japan's crime was to be yellow. China and Korea play the race card. That goes down unthinkingly well with whites.

Japan has no problems with Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam, Myanmar, or Malaysia.

[Ronald Reagan]

I do feel for the Japanese civilians who were killed or injured.
But that does not change what they did to the civilians of occupied nations or to our people they took prisoner, I mean who decides to machine gun nurses or set POWs on fire?!

Another interesting but very disturning read is:-
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unit_731
One case of human experimentation occurred in Japan itself. At least nine out of 11 crew members survived the crash of a U.S. Army Air Forces (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Army_Air_Forces) B-29 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B-29_Superfortress) bomber on Kyūshū (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ky%C5%ABsh%C5%AB), on May 5, 1945. (This plane was Lt. Marvin Watkins' crew of the 29th Bomb Group of the 6th Bomb Squadron.[53] (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_war_crimes#cite_note-53)) The bomber's commander was separated from his crew and sent to Tokyo for interrogation, while the other survivors were taken to the anatomy department of Kyushu University (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyushu_University), at Fukuoka (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukuoka,_Fukuoka), where they were subjected to vivisection or killed

[Yamagata ken]

You are playing the contemptible race card. Again. By your standards, China should be be allowed to occupy Japan.

White people (Nazi Germany, Belgian Congo) never did hatefull things. But now in the 21st Century Japan should yield to China! Why not Germany or Belgium?

[Ronald Reagan]

I hope there is not a war between China and Japan but if one did take place I hope we would not get involved. Its none of our concern. I should point out yet again I am not against the Japanes people of today (vast majority were not even born then) but its important these crimes from the past are remembered, its a terrible tragedy if they are forgotten. The governments of other nations in the region maybe happy to forget but many of the people in those nations are not! I have heard that from friends in China, Vietnam, Singapore and South Korea.
My Grandfather never forgot the loss of his brother and the Far East POWs never forgot what they went through either!

I am certainly not a fan of the current Japanese Prime Minister and his recent comments:-
Japan PM dismisses WWII war crimes trials as 'victors' justice' - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/japan/9930041/Japan-PM-dismisses-WWII-war-crimes-trials-as-victors-justice.html)

[Yamagata ken]

Japan is a pluralist democracy ruled by law. China is a one party state. Japan is no threat to any nation. China threatens all nations in east Asia.

The USA chooses to share its military technology with Japan (Aegis, now possibly the F35) as Japan is a trusted ally. The USA does not share these with China or Korea.

Abe is right to lay down the law. Any attempt by China to occupy Japanese Territory will be an act of war. If China starts a war in East Asia, the USA will be involved.

[hval]

Ronald Reagan,

What you have written would appear to say that you accept Chinas' current confrontational methods against the Japanese as being acceptable. Am I correct? Does this give the UK the right to be aggressive with the USA, with Germany or with France? After all we have been at war with all of the at some time.

What about the Chinese stance on the invasion of Ladakh two weeks ago? They still occupy the area.

Or Chinas stance on claiming most of the South China sea and all the lands there that are currently owned by the Philippinnes or Vietnam or Malaysia or Brunei? Or the following claims to own areas of: -


Burma
Laos
Northern India
Vietnam
Nepal
Bhutan
Thailand
Malaysia
Singapore
The Ryukyu Islands
300 islands of the South China, East China and Yellow Seas
Kyrgyzstan
Mongolia
Taiwan
South Kazakhstan
The Afghan province of Bahdashan, Transbaikalia and the Far East to South Okhotsk


Do you believe that China is correct in their claims to the above?

[West Coast]

RR

Depends which Norfolk you reside in. Iffin it's in Virginia, we are duty bound by treaty to come to Japan's aid.

[LiveryMan]

The Japan of today is different to the Japan of the 40s. One cannot hold any member of the Japanese public alive to today for the sins of those from the 30s and 40s. What is done is done. History is history. China has no more right to invade or attack Japanese territory than Japan had in 1937.

It is quite infantile to claim "They did it to us, now we will do it to them" if indeed that is what the Chinese powers that be are thinking. And it's a poor argument for outsiders to use to justify any actions the Chinese might bring upon Japan.

Personally I think this is all sabre rattling which will eventually quieten down.
Japan is allied to a lot of nations with whom China trades. Biggest of all being the US. I don't think China can afford to cause a war to erupt between themselves and Japan for that reason.

[Yamagata ken]

Thank you very much gentlemen.

West Coast, I'm disappointed that RR comes from my adopted home county in the UK. Your point about duty is well appreciated, thank you.

Abe is the Prime Minister of Japan, elected by a significant majority. Abe is not a cowboy or a maverick. He was elected by popular will, in large part because he has the guts to draw a line in the sand.

China will cross that line at its peril, but Abe is not working alone. Japan and the USA share strategic interests.

[Ronald Reagan]

I find it rather disgusting that so many in the west are willing to simply write off what our people were put through and not to mention the populations of so many nations. From what people are saying here its as if what our soldiers went through means nothing, nothing at all. To our governments they are simply an inconvenience to be forgotten, it seems to many others they are the same. When the current Japanese Prime Minister talks of the war crimes not actually being war crimes many in the west simply accept it. I am amazed but probably not surprised! It would have been better for my Great Uncle and all the others to simply be conscientious objectors, would have been able to live full lives then, rather than fighting for those who care nothing for them at all and would simply forget them or to try and air brush them from history.

As for the Chinese bashing, they seem to be doing ok, in about 5 years they will probably be the largest economy on Earth. I think what they want is going to be rather important. That fact must terrify some!!! It makes me rather happy to be honest. For communists they seem to have a better grasp of economics and capitalism than many other so called capitalist nations!

hval, as for the territorial disputes, I would imagine the Chinese are correct about some of them, not all of them. When it comes to such things there are atleast two sides involved, possibly more, it can prove very hard to resolve. China will probably have enough muscle to eventually get some of what it wants. I hope it does not go to far though.

[Courtney Mil]

Japan and the USA share strategic interests.

Thank Goodness.

[West Coast]

I for one don't want to forget the horrors the Japanese inflicted upon innocents, but that doesn't factor in to the current turf war.

The Chinese are not without blood on their hands, how many died during the cultural revolution?

[Heathrow Harry]

The Chinese were a very powerful nation that went through 150 years of being treat like dirt and having large parts of the country shaved off by other countries

now they are on their way back they are looking to recover all/part/some of what was lost (Tibet was the first act here)

On the other hand they have shown on a number of occasions that they are willing to negotiate boundaries on a face-to-face basis - the only condition is that the negotiations are one-on-one and that there is a genuine desire to deal. The Chinese have often stated that they will consider "realities on the ground".

They have done boundary deals with Pakistan, Nepal and Burma and no-one has lost much or any land.

They are a big player and about to become bigger - history shows that such countries like to control events in their neighbourhood (Latin America anyone states-side?)

[hval]

Ronald Reagan,

Thanks for your response.

You write about the atrocities that the Japanese carried out pre WW II and during WW II and are totally correct that they should not be forgotten - but purely for the lessons that can be learnt. Surely we need to forgive some time? After all, I am certain that the massive majority of Japanese have absolutely no interest in carrying on in that fashion. Are there any Japanese still alive that were involved in atrocities? Why blame a nation for what their forbears did?

I would also ask you what about the atrocities carried out by the Germans pre WW II and during WW II? What about the atrocities carried out by Russians during and after WW II? What about the PIRA? What about Somalia? I could go on. If we never forgave and forgot there would be continuous warfare on a global scale. In fact I guess that mankind would be wiped out.

As for what the Japanese put the British and Allies through, just think what the British put the rest of the world through via their empire. Not all of it was good.

As has been written, China also committed many atrocities, and like the West, CCCP, Russia and others has played at war by proxy for many, many years.

You write "I would imagine the Chinese are correct about some of them, not all of them". Why do China have to be right about any of them? As for you comment about China having sufficient muscle soon to do what they wish, I am like you that I truly do not wish for that to occur. I really, really do not.

[Yamagata ken]

Illuminating piece in the Torygraph

David Cameron's rift with China could cost UK billions - Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10040319/David-Camerons-rift-with-China-could-cost-UK-billions.html)

"China wants Mr Cameron to apologise for hosting Tibet’s spiritual leader, who disputes Beijing’s territorial claims on the region.."

Indeed, the Middle Kingdom wants Stuntman Dave, apparently the leader of an EU client state, to apologise for giving offense. There are problems when dealing with a Master Race, whether to bow when standing, or bow when on one's knees.

RR can come along soon and explain about the horrors of the opium trade.

[Ronald Reagan]

BBC NEWS | Asia-Pacific | Scarred by history: The Rape of Nanjing (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/223038.stm)

Between December 1937 and March 1938 one of the worst massacres in modern times took place. Japanese troops captured the Chinese city of Nanjing and embarked on a campaign of murder, rape and looting.

http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41019000/jpg/_41019723_nanjingditch203b.jpgThousands of bodies were buried in ditches


Based on estimates made by historians and charity organisations in the city at the time, between 250,000 and 300,000 people were killed, many of them women and children.
The number of women raped was said by Westerners who were there to be 20,000, and there were widespread accounts of civilians being hacked to death.
Yet many Japanese officials and historians deny there was a massacre on such a scale.
They admit that deaths and rapes did occur, but say they were on a much smaller scale than reported. And in any case, they argue, these things happen in times of war.
The Sino-Japanese Wars
In 1931, Japan invaded Chinese Manchuria following a bombing incident at a railway controlled by Japanese interests.
The Chinese troops were no match for their opponents and Japan ended up in control of great swathes of Chinese territory.
The following years saw Japan consolidate its hold, while China suffered civil war between communists and the nationalists of the Kuomintang. The latter were led by General Chiang Kai-shek, whose capital was at Nanjing.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41019000/jpg/_41019727_nanjing203b.jpgJapanese troops enter the city in triumph


Many Japanese, particularly some elements of the army, wanted to increase their influence and in July 1937, a skirmish between Chinese and Japanese troops escalated into full-scale war.
The Japanese again had initial success, but then there was a period of successful Chinese defence before the Japanese broke through at Shanghai and swiftly moved on to Nanjing.
Chiang Kai-shek's troops had already left the city and the Japanese army occupied it without difficulty.
'One of the great atrocities of modern times'
At the time, the Japanese army did not have a reputation for brutality.
In the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-5, the Japanese commanders had behaved with great courtesy towards their defeated opponents, but this was very different.
Japanese papers reported competitions among junior officers to kill the most Chinese.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/shared/img/o.gifhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/start_quote_rb.gifThere probably is no crime that has not been committed in this city todayhttp://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/img/v3/end_quote_rb.gif


Minnie Vautrin
US woman in Nanjing


One Japanese newspaper correspondent saw lines of Chinese being taken for execution on the banks of the Yangtze River, where he saw piles of burned corpses.
Photographs from the time, now part of an exhibition in the city, show Japanese soldiers standing, smiling, among heaps of dead bodies.
Tillman Durdin of the New York Times reported the early stages of the massacre before being forced to leave.
He later wrote: "I was 29 and it was my first big story for the New York Times. So I drove down to the waterfront in my car. And to get to the gate I had to just climb over masses of bodies accumulated there."
"The car just had to drive over these dead bodies. And the scene on the river front, as I waited for the launch... was of a group of smoking, chattering Japanese officers overseeing the massacring of a battalion of Chinese captured troops."
"They were marching about in groups of about 15, machine-gunning them."
As he departed, he saw 200 men being executed in 10 minutes to the apparent enjoyment of Japanese military spectators.
He concluded that the rape of Nanjing was "one of the great atrocities of modern times".
'The memories cannot be erased'
A Christian missionary, John Magee, described Japanese soldiers as killing not only "every prisoner they could find but also a vast number of ordinary citizens of all ages".
"Many of them were shot down like the hunting of rabbits in the streets," he said.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41019000/jpg/_41019721_nanjingvictims203.jpgSome victims were reportedly buried alive


After what he described as a week of murder and rape, the Rev Magee joined other Westerners in trying to set up an international safety zone.
Another who tried to help was an American woman, Minnie Vautrin, who kept a diary which has been likened to that of Anne Frank.
Her entry for 16 December reads: "There probably is no crime that has not been committed in this city today. Thirty girls were taken from the language school [where she worked] last night, and today I have heard scores of heartbreaking stories of girls who were taken from their homes last night - one of the girls was but 12 years old."
Later, she wrote: "How many thousands were mowed down by guns or bayoneted we shall probably never know. For in many cases oil was thrown over their bodies and then they were burned."
"Charred bodies tell the tales of some of these tragedies. The events of the following ten days are growing dim. But there are certain of them that lifetime will not erase from my memory and the memories of those who have been in Nanjing through this period."
Minnie Vautrin suffered a nervous breakdown in 1940 and returned to the US. She committed suicide in 1941.
Also horrified at what he saw was John Rabe, a German who was head of the local Nazi party.
He became leader of the international safety zone and recorded what he saw, some of it on film, but this was banned by the Nazis when he returned to Germany.
He wrote about rape and other brutalities which occurred even in the middle of the supposedly protected area.
Confession and denial
After the Second World War was over, one of the Japanese soldiers who was in Nanjing spoke about what he had seen.
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41019000/jpg/_41019725_nanjingjapanese203b.jpgJapanese troops showed little mercy


Azuma Shiro recalled one episode: "There were about 37 old men, old women and children. We captured them and gathered them in a square."
"There was a woman holding a child on her right arm... and another one on her left."
"We stabbed and killed them, all three - like potatoes in a skewer. I thought then, it's been only one month since I left home... and 30 days later I was killing people without remorse."
Mr Shiro suffered for his confession: "When there was a war exhibition in Kyoto, I testified. The first person who criticized me was a lady in Tokyo. She said I was damaging those who died in the war."
"She called me incessantly for three or four days. More and more letters came and the attack became so severe... that the police had to provide me with protection."
Such testimony, however, has been discounted at the highest levels in Japan.
Former Justice Minister Shigeto Nagano denied that the massacre had occurred, claiming it was a Chinese fabrication.
Professor Ienaga Saburo spent many years fighting the Japanese government in the courts with only limited success for not allowing true accounts of Japanese war atrocities to be given in school textbooks.
There is also opposition to the idea among ordinary Japanese people. A film called Don't Cry Nanjing was made by Chinese and Hong Kong film-makers in 1995 but it was several years before it was shown in Japan.

[Yamagata ken]

And the opium trade? The slave trade? The conquistadors? The crusades? The potato famine? The holocaust? What does your historical grievance have to do with China imposing its Imperial power on Asia in the 21st Century?

[Ronald Reagan]

The German government accepts the holocaust happened and is very apologetic for it.

I cannot say the same for Shinzo Abe and his views on war crimes. I think a visit by himself to China with a full and formal apology, something like the famous Willy Brandt apology. Probably to South Korea and other nations to. He has been rather unwise to say some of the things he has. He appears to be a rather dangerous nationalist who could make things far worse, his words could make alliance building more difficult. Someone such as this is far from ideal in being a leader. A more moderate and thoughtful leader may not have dug this hole for himself!

[Yamagata ken]

Abe has not dug a hole for himself. You allow your prejudice to colour your judgement. China is the threat to peace in Asia, not Japan.

[Ronald Reagan]

If a German politican said something similar to Abe then they would likely not even be able to get elected! There would be a total uproar over it.

The Chinese are not much a threat really, they tend to behave, they are peaceful, they are most interested in doing business and economic matters, they might be a military threat if provoked by dangerous nationalism though!

[Heathrow Harry]

I just don't understand what point RR is trying to make

that Japanese soldiers committed atrocities? Does anyone on here really believe that any country has clean hands over war time atrocities?? Or peace time ones as well

[Yamagata ken]

RR is a troll posting his prejudices. China threatens Asia, therfore Japan is to blame.

[glad rag]

I just don't understand what point RR is trying to make

Same.

The terrible acts carried out by the Japanese in the distant past bear no idiotic comparison to modern day Japan.

[Lonewolf_50]

RR, you might want to visit with the governments of the Philipines, Taiwan, Viet Nam, and a few other places to see who they worry about more: Japan or China, as security threat.

I want to be sure we don't forget that Imperial Japan inflicted a lot of inhumane crap on people, but I also don't believe in living in the past. What are the problems of today and tomorrow to solve?

[Ronald Reagan]

My main point is the Japanese Prime Minister is basically saying the war crimes that were carried out are not war crimes at all!!! To me this is rather disgusting, my main issue is with him alone. Also I thought by posting the material people may get a better understanding of why its very hard for the people (not so much the governments) of other nations in the area to forget what happend all those years ago.

When I pointed this out on this forum I get a kind of ''who cares attitude'' or ''oh well we have all carried out war crimes'' I do agree with the second one of those. But I don't think we carried vivisection on captured airmen or civilians, or buried foreign civilians alive, or made POWS get into trenches, poor petrol onto them and set fire to them, machine gun female nurses, raping women and children, I could go on!!!!! Japan today is not to blaim for any of this BUT for the Japanese PM to say such things are not war crimes is beyond contempt. If a German politician said the same about that nations actions in World War 2 there would be uproar. The Germans have been punished hard for that nations actions in the past war and rightly so, but with Japan its all kind of brushed under the carpet and not talked about anywhere near as much. I can say the same about Soviet crimes! Thats not spoken about much either.

As for China, most of the surrounding nations seem to be happy to engage in trade, actually many nations in the world virtually seem to beg to engage with China economically, but at the same time they are rather jealous and concerned at the rapid growth of China. The key word is envy!
The whole region is economically being pulled towards China but in military terms is being pulled towards the USA. A most interesting situation.

I hope there is never war in the region, all war is wrong. But if one does occur I would not get involved or one could turn a regional conflict into a World War. But lets hope it never comes to that.

(Taiwan is really part of China anyhow, I would expect within a generation or so that one will be resolved with Taiwan joining back with China)

[Fareastdriver]

The Chinese are not allowed to forget about Nanjing. Every time anything in the news that involves a problem with Japan the old films are rolled out on TV. Japan is not China's problem. Their problem is about 850,000,000 Chinese who are just above peasant level who are looking at TV screens showing China's economic expansion and asking, "where is my share?"

Revolutions in China have always been started by peasants and the Chinese leadership is all too aware of its own recent history. There job is to avoid this at all costs and the defence against that is continuous growth through overseas trade. They are not going to rock the boat by starting a war. They still haven't got over the drubbing they received from Viet Nam.

Some islands, like the Paracel Islands, have been accepted internationally as being part if China for over a hundred years. Other have the temptation of mineral rights, especially hydro-carbons. If they didn't have that potential China would not be interested in them; nor would Japan, or the Philippines, or Taiwan, or Vietnam, or Malaysia.

[Heathrow Harry]

Not sure far East Driver - I think the Chinese are more concerned about historic issues (right or wrong) than mineral rights - otherwise why slug it out with the Russians over a few islands in the middle of the Amur River?

What they seem to aim for is

1. bi-lateral negotiations between"equals"

2. the other side to confess and apologise "properly" (what ever that may mean from time to time)

3. Start with a clean sheet of paper

4. take into account "realities on the ground"

5. drive a very hard, but not totally impossible, deal

[Fareastdriver]

Having been involved with the offshore oil industry in China for more than several years it is oil; believe me.

[PingDit]

Tribunal backs case against China brought by Philippines:

South China Sea: Tribunal backs case against China brought by Philippines - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-36771749)

[ORAC]

Manila Wins South China Sea Arbitration Case at The Hague (http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2016/07/12/manila-wins-south-china-sea-arbitration-case-hague/86984274/)

....."What Now?

Sam Tangredi, a specialist on anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategies at the US-based consulting firm Strategic Insight, argues that China's A2/AD ambitions must be defined in terms of diplomatic and economic activities, not just military.

China could ignore the ruling and justify its activities by passing a law declaring that the South China Sea, like Taiwan, has always been an internal region of China, and therefore international legal jurisdiction does not and has never existed, Tangredi said. In that line of thinking, the independence or foreign control of the territorial seas cannot be tolerated and actions by other states to assert control are illegal and will be treated as a criminal action. Any resulting resistance or attack on Chinese agencies exercising outside legal authority would be treated as an attack against the state.

Tangredi, who wrote the recent book, “Anti-Access Warfare,” said: “Authoritarian regimes are particularly sensitive to having ‘legal’ justifications for arbitrary actions, and that is the case with China.”

The analyst also said he fears China would declare an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the South China Sea in response to the court ruling. China declared an ADIZ over the East China Sea (ECS) in November 2013, rattling Japan and the United States. The ECS ADIZ overlaps the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands, which China claims as the Diaoyu Islands."...........

[Basil]

I can say, from personal experience, that The Rape of Nanjing is commemorated every year in Hong Kong with very explicit pictures on display.

[tartare]

For reference, here's the original paper (http://csbaonline.org/search/?x=0&y=0&q=airsea) on how a war might unfold.
And an interesting little video (http://csbaonline.org/publications/2015/12/a-vision-of-future-aerial-combat/) on how an LRSB / UCAV package might engage and defeat a red force beyond visual range.

[ImageGear]

Not a direct quote but:

A recent article stated that many countries have had their territorial claims referred to the Hague Tribunal by other aggrieved countries, only for them to completely reject the findings of the Tribunal when they perceive that it impacts on their national security or interests.

Nothing is new here, there are examples much closer to home. China is just following the lead of others and making a pure and simple territorial grab a la Ukraine/Crimea.

Imagegear

[PingDit]

A senior Chinese official has said China has the right to set up an air defence zone over territory it claims in the South China Sea.
The statement from Vice-Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin comes a day after an international tribunal said there was no legal basis for China's claims.

South China Sea: China 'has right to set up air defence zone' - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-36781138)

(As anticipated then...)

[Lonewolf_50]

A senior Chinese official has said China has the right to set up an air defence zone over territory it claims in the South China Sea.
The statement from Vice-Foreign Minister Liu Zhenmin comes a day after an international tribunal said there was no legal basis for China's claims.

South China Sea: China 'has right to set up air defence zone' - BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-36781138)

(As anticipated then...)
They are free to burn the gas and wear themselves out with their ADIZ. Might be good training for their pilots.

Given the number of times I got intercepted by our own USAF (1) and how many times helicopters on our wing got intercepted by our own USAF (dozens) while doing standard ship board ops training while in the ADIZ (the usual question was "was your parrot working properly in all modes?") I wish them well and hope they fly intercepts on all Com Air over the south china sea. Good fun. Something for the pilots to do. Also, it will offer something for the bored passengers to gawk at if their iPads run out of batteries:
"Look, Mummy, a Chinese Fighter jet!"
"Get a picture with your phone, dear, so that we can show Daddy."

[Chugalug2]

HH:-
I just don't understand what point RR is trying to make...that Japanese soldiers committed atrocities? Does anyone on here really believe that any country has clean hands over war time atrocities?? Or peace time ones as well

Well, I guess it all depends on what you call atrocities. The main "atrocity" levelled at the UK, and in particular the RAF, is of course Dresden. Why one bombing of one city should be picked out from all the other bombings of all the other cities mystifies me, so let's call all the bombings of all the cities "atrocities". Indeed, let's agree that all war is an atrocity. In which case I would still contend that an army on the rampage; murdering, torturing and raping civilians and POW's alike, needs a special term for its conduct. So let's instead call that an atrocity, and the bombing of cities war.

What RR's point is he must say. My point is that the Japanese Emperor, his Government, nor his people have ever disowned the barbarities carried out by the Imperial Japanese Army in the 1930s and 40s. That contrasts sharply with the atonement of Germany, and makes me fearful of a revitalised Japan that elevates its "self defence" up by several notches.

None of the above implies any less worry about the threat from China, indeed it simply adds to it...

[ORAC]

Well this is certainly going to add to their capabilities in the region......

MDjgKUpFCp8

Seaplane Could Advance Chinese SCS Claims (http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/naval/naval-aviation/2015/03/28/china-seaplane-islands-scs-claims-spratley-reef/70542218/)

[Stanwell]

Yes, China does worry me a bit.
As had been mentioned before, its strategic tentacles have been slowly unravelling and grasping.

Just one small example would be the acquisition of key infrastructure assets within Australia.
A little while back, it was granted a 99-year lease on the port of Darwin.
But that's OK - because the Australian and US Navies will still be allowed to use the Port facilities.

Further, they now have control of the Port of Newcastle, NSW and are closing a deal on the Port of Melbourne.
Hello?
Do we have people asleep at the wheel - or is something going on that I really shouldn't worry my pretty little head about?

[Lonewolf_50]

Do we have people asleep at the wheel - or is something going on that I really shouldn't worry my pretty little head about? Asleep at the wheel. Our sell out began in the late 80's / early 90's when the restrictions on Chicom access to our universities were relaxed. "The money was too good" and the notable illustration of Chinese money men with Bill Clinton in the White House is a trend that has not changed.

[Heathrow Harry]

Stanwell - unless you believe that the PLA are going to hide several divisions of infantry inside a quayside go-down in Darwin, Newcastle etc etc does it matter who OWNS the port?

The Australian police can occupy them given 10 minutes notice...

In fact you are using THEIR money to upgrade YOUR ports - which is better than them spending their cash on more missiles etc

[ORAC]

Photos suggest China built reinforced hangars on disputed islands: CSIS (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-china-images-idUSKCN10K08P)

East China Sea: Japan Spots Chinese Radar on Gas Exploration Platform (http://thediplomat.com/2016/08/east-china-sea-japan-spots-chinese-radar-on-gas-exploration-platform/)

Vietnam moves new rocket launchers into disputed S.China Sea (http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-vietnam-idUSKCN10K2NE)

China on ‘combat patrols’ near disputed islands (http://globalnation.inquirer.net/142444/china-on-combat-patrols-near-disputed-islands)

https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.286130261043&pid=15.1&P=0&w=231&h=179

https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.148678185579&pid=15.1&P=0&w=254&h=179

https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.148694173943&pid=15.1&P=0&w=229&h=168

https://tse4.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.286123295611&pid=15.1&P=0&w=297&h=168

https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.79962902172&pid=15.1&P=0&w=301&h=170

https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=HS.79962902160&pid=15.1&P=0&w=301&h=170

[tartare]

None of us should worry.
Because the greatest goddam nation on the face of this earth could nuke them to a pane of glass and finish them off with windex in a second if it wanted to.
Why don't I feel secure...:ooh:

[Fareastdriver]

Eleven gas production platforms built in two years and people wonder what China is claiming the sea bed for.

http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000099430.pdf?utm_content=buffer2b557&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[Lonewolf_50]

Because the greatest goddam nation on the face of this earth could nuke them to a pane of glass and finish them off with windex in a second if it wanted to. Where did this rant come from? Where do you get the idea that US policy toward China is to nuke them over a local dispute? Have you been reading leftist propaganda again?

[SARF]

Not the uks problem.. Let the new big boys slug it out in ww3 on the other side of the planet. Post suez it's not our problem any more.. We can make a mint selling new carriers to India etc. Then Join in once we know who is going to win....

[tartare]

I was being ironic Lone... I'm actually a great fan of your country.
My point was that despite it's overwhelming military superiority, the US is effectively powerless in the face of salami slicing by the Chinese.
And - just to clarify - I wouldn't classify myself as left by any means.

[Lonewolf_50]

@tartare
Sorry, I missed the irony/sarcasm. The text medium doesn't always get tone across.

Military is but one of many tools used by those in the seats of power. To say the US is "powerless" is not correct, but two things arise from that observation:

1. The SCS is China's "backyard"
2. Having the wit to use other means of power or suasion is highly dependent upon the people in office at the time. Over the past 25 years, our "policy" in re the SCS has been subject to some interesting variations. All of a sudden, the rest of America has woken up to something I was concerned with, professionally, in the early 90's.

Nukes give a deterrent effect, not a carte blanche. Ya still have to do the hard work on the ground if you really want to change things.

[tartare]

Agree with you 100 per cent.
I think the really challenging issue for Uncle Sam is at what point does a hyper-power say "no - actually China, that's a slice too far..." and then how do you respond.
It's China's backyard - but just across the fence from the quarter acre, suburnt paradise that is Orstraylia....

[Stanwell]

Thank you, tartare.
A couple of us down here HAD noticed.

[tartare]

I think it's actually very worrying.
All it's going to take is some clown in a J-8 to buzz a RAAF Orion, or a P-8; get caught in a tip vortex and next thing you've got a mid-air and Hainan Island all over again.
Or Vietnam gets the sh1ts with some fishermen and squeezes off one of those new missiles.
An all out war might not be in China or the US's interest, but a very nasty little regional confrontation might just be a slightly bigger slice of the salami that Beijing may think it can get away with.

[Fareastdriver]

It's very much like a Chinese work contract. They keep chipping away at it until you walk out of the door and then they call you in and start again from the beginning.

[ORAC]

Report: China May Cross Obama?s ?Red Line, Reclaim Scarborough Shoal Next Month (http://sputniknews.com/asia/20160815/1044267318/china-red-line-scarborough-obama.html)

"......The People’s Republic of China may soon look to fundamentally alter the status-quo in the South China Sea by seizing the disputed Scarborough Shoal within the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines – a move that Washington considers a "red line" with President Obama warning of "serious consequences" in March if China attempted to reclaim the land.

An article (http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2003354/if-china-builds-scarborough-shoal-it-would-come-after) in Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post raises the specter of the potential incursion quoting "a source familiar with the matter" detailing that Beijing would not look to reclaim the territory before hosting the G-20 next month, but could begin construction efforts on the land mass sometime between September and when Americans go to the polls in November.

The source suggests that Beijing may look to take advantage of the domestic distractions put on President Obama during the political season. "Obama will focus on domestic issues ahead of the election as he needs to pass down legacies before leaving office," said the source. "That might make him busy and he might not have the time to take care of regional security issues........."

[Heathrow Harry]

The answer is to plonk a battalion of US marines on it right now and claim they're taking their R&R break - issue them with hawaian shirts etc etc

[FODPlod]

The answer is to plonk a battalion of US marines on it right now and claim they're taking their R&R break - issue them with hawaian shirts etc etc
Why not call them scrap metal workmen?

[tartare]

There you go.
Just one more tiny sliver of a slice while those Yankee Imperialists are distracted.
Take just enough to avoid directly threatening or angering them.

[ORAC]

South China Sea Time Bomb: Beijing Sets "Red Line" on Japan-US Joint Operations (http://sputniknews.com/asia/20160821/1044496661/china-sea-red-line-japan.html)

On Saturday, diplomatic sources confirmed that China had issued a severe warning to Tokyo in late June demanding that Japan refrain from dispatching Self-Defense Forces to join US operations testing the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea.

Japan will “cross a red line” if SDF vessels take part in the freedom of navigation operations, Chinese Ambassador Cheng Yonghua conveyed to Tokyo at the time. Cheng threatened military action if Japan failed to comply with the ultimatum.

The warning came two weeks prior to The Hague international arbitration court’s adverse ruling deeming the waters and territory that the Chinese people had historically viewed as their own were to be stripped of their control and that Beijing must immediately remove itself from the disputed territory. China immediately denounced the ruling, on both substantive and procedural grounds, vowing not to comply with the court’s ruling....... Beijing has become irate over international pressure calling for it to comply with the court order in the name of international law, which China views the ruling itself violates, coming predominantly from regional competitors Japan and Australia as well as from the United States.

Those tensions risk spilling over with a Chinese state-run newspaper already issuing a warning to Australia that it would be the "ideal target for a strike" and repeated warnings to Japan to avoid intervening. Further complicating tensions, Reuters misreported that Vietnam had installed rocket launchers pointing at Chinese military assets over the territorial dispute leading China’s press to caution Hanoi to remember the consequence of the last-time the two countries went to war in 1979.

While Tokyo continues to assert pressure on Beijing over the arbitration ruling, despite not itself being a party to the dispute, a Japan Times editorial left unsigned sought to offer reassurance saying that "the Japanese government has no plans to join the freedom of navigation operations, in which the United States since October has sent warships near artificial islands that China has built in the South China Sea."

The statement of measured and reserve action comes after revelations that Chinese Ambassador Cheng Yonghua told Japan explicitly not to take part in "joint military actions with the US forces that is aimed at excluding China in the South China Sea" and stating that China "will not concede on sovereignty issues and is not afraid of military provocations.".............

[tartare]

Remember someone once from US State Dept saying that dealing with the Chinese when they are angry was a bit like a Peking Opera... lots of screaming, shouting and threats, but not much more.
The threat to strike Australia is a bit ridiculous - with Pine Gap and half of the US defence industry having branch offices here, it'd be tantamount to an attack on the US itself.
But what about the smaller nations?
Sooner or later we're going to reach `call your bluff' point in this dispute.
Face will be lost, and what happens then?
Short, sharp ugly little scrap between some South East Asian claimant and China?

[Stanwell]

I liked your "Peking Opera" analogy there, tartare.
The phrases "severe warning" to Japan and "Beijing has become irate" and, to top it off,
Australia as "an ideal target" confirm that.
And we thought the North Koreans were silly.
I hope they pull their heads in soon.

[ORAC]

Just to add to the growing furore in the region, yet another possible flash point.

South Korea's Park Geun-hye: 'Serious cracks' in North Korean regime - UPI.com (http://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2016/08/22/South-Koreas-Park-Geun-hye-Serious-cracks-emerging-in-North-Korean-regime/9581471885824/)

SEOUL, Aug. 22 (UPI) -- South Korean President Park Geun-hye suggested regime change in North Korea is close at hand, the same day Pyongyang condemned the commencement of large-scale joint military exercises. Speaking during a national security council meeting for the Ulchi Freedom Guardian exercises, Park said "serious cracks" are emerging in the Pyongyang government, and the possibility the system would be "shaken" is increasing, Yonhap reported.

The president's remarks come a week after she described unification as an opportunity for "all North Koreans and North Korean officials," during a speech marking the 71st anniversary of Korean independence from Japanese colonial rule. Park did not include Kim Jong Un in her speech, a move that is aiming to isolate the top leadership, according to a South Korean analyst. On Monday Park said, "Even the North Korean elite class is recently showing signs of collapse, and some of North Korea's key officials are defecting or seeking asylum abroad, signs that there is a possibility the system is shaking."

A South Korean official who spoke to Yonhap on the condition of anonymity said the president is looking at the bigger picture, which includes difficulties for the regime under international sanctions, increasing public opposition to Pyongyang's mass mobilization movements and the defection of elites........

[On_The_Top_Bunk]

For anyone interested in the DPRK then Reddit has a good forum.
https://www.reddit.com/r/NorthKoreaNews

[ORAC]

Follow up to post #102... (http://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/493498-south-china-sea-s-gathering-storm-6.html#post9482186)

China flies military planes over strait near Japan (https://uk.news.yahoo.com/china-flies-military-planes-over-strait-near-japan-075904688.html)

China has sent fighter planes for the first time over a strait near Japan, the two governments said Monday, after Tokyo announced it may patrol alongside the US in the disputed South China Sea.

More than 40 Chinese military aircraft on Sunday traversed the Miyako Strait between Japan's Miyako and Okinawa Islands, to carry out training in the West Pacific, according to a statement on China's defence ministry website. The Sukhoi Su-30 fighters, bombers and refuelling aircraft did not violate Japanese airspace. Japan's defence ministry said it was the first time Chinese fighters had passed over the strait. The drill is aimed at "testing far sea combat capabilities", the Chinese statement said. It follows China's first military flight, carried out by spy planes, over the Miyako Strait last year.

The move comes after Japanese Defence Minister Tomomi Inada said earlier this month that Tokyo would increase its engagement in the South China Sea through joint training cruises with the US Navy, exercises with regional navies and capacity-building assistance to coastal nations. Beijing asserts sovereignty over almost all of the South China Sea, dismissing rival partial claims from its Southeast Asian neighbours. It rejects any intervention by Japan in the waterway.

In recent months Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has criticised China for rejecting a July ruling by an international tribunal, which said Beijing's extensive claims to the waters had no legal basis. Tokyo, a key US ally, is also strengthening defence ties with other countries in the disputed region. Japan and China are already at loggerheads over a longstanding territorial row in the East China Sea. That dispute relates to uninhabited islets controlled by Japan known as the Senkakus in Japanese and the Diaoyus in Chinese.

Abe said on Monday Japan would "never tolerate attempts to unilaterally change the status quo" in the disputed waters, or "wherever else in the world", in an apparent response to the Chinese move. "We pledge to protect Japan's territory, and in the sea and air," he said in a speech to open a new parliamentary session. Japan and China "share a mutual understanding that we're significantly responsible for regional peace and prosperity", he added.

In its statement the Chinese defence ministry said it had also mobilised an unspecified number of bombers and fighters to patrol the East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ). Beijing sparked alarm after it unilaterally established the ADIZ in 2013. It demanded all aircraft submit flight plans when traversing the zone, which covers the islands disputed with Tokyo and also claimed by Taipei.

"Normalising far sea drills out in the West Pacific and patrols in the East China Sea ADIZ is based on the need for China's Air Force to protect national sovereignty and security and ensure peaceful development," air force spokesperson Shen Jinke said in the statement. The Chinese military has been monitoring and identifying foreign military planes that entered the ADIZ and "took measures according to different air threats" since it was set up three years ago, the statement added.

http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/files/2016/09/SU-30-Miyako-Strait.jpg

[Fareastdriver]

Don't worry about it. It's no difference between Russian aircraft flying the Rockall Gap. China and Japan have their own domestic problems; this is just a sideshow.

[ORAC]

The Philippines Is About to Give Up the South China Sea to China - Defense One (http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2016/10/philippines-about-give-south-china-sea-china/132319/?oref=d-rive)

[A_Van]

And who was feeding the dragon for decades? Who outsourced a huge part of manufacturing to China supporting its near two-digit economic growth for some 30 years? US and EU....

[fltlt]

And who was feeding the dragon for decades? Who outsourced a huge part of manufacturing to China supporting its near two-digit economic growth for some 30 years? US and EU....

The WalMart effect.

[Fareastdriver]

I met a bloke in Shenzhen once. He ran, as had his father before him, a plastics moulding company producing plastic bits for motor vehicles; bumper, grill surrounds etc. He had supplied, at a reasonable cost, components for British motor manufacturers for years but he was now going to go out of business.

The reason was that the new Eastern European companies springing up with EU subsidies could easily undercut him and under EU rules the manufacturers were not permitted to choose their supplier on a national basis.

So he had come to China with samples of his products to try and save his business. He had been directed to a Chinese company that produced the same items as he and they had done test mouldings of his products to perfection. So the deal was struck. They would produce the items that would arrive in the UK at a price cheaper than the Europeans could manage; his factory would then become a packing and distribution centre and 90% of his employees would keep a job.

[Just This Once...]

And who was feeding the dragon for decades? Who outsourced a huge part of manufacturing to China supporting its near two-digit economic growth for some 30 years? US and EU....
I guess iPhones are more terrifying than all those fighters, missiles and bombs that others prefer to sell to China.

[Heathrow Harry]

Let's be honest - if China opened a competition to provide a new fighter you wouldn't be able to move in Beijing because of BAe, Dassault, Saab, Boeing & LM sales people..................

[Just This Once...]

I don't think that is being honest at all. China would gladly purchase military equipment from companies such as those you list, but are prevented from doing so by the national governments that host said companies.

http://www.dw.com/en/why-russia-needs-china-to-buy-its-weapons/a-18870472

[Heathrow Harry]

Hmmm - not sure - if they wanted to buy lots and lots of shiny new aeroplanes things might change ...after all - other than the F-35 & the F-22 they're all pretty old designs no?

[racedo]

The Philippines Is About to Give Up the South China Sea to China - Defense One (http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2016/10/philippines-about-give-south-china-sea-china/132319/?oref=d-rive)


Seems like a realist who figures he gets more for his country long term doing this than shedding blood to appease someone else.

[Heathrow Harry]

Like all peripheral countries - they contract when the Big Boy in the area is strong and then expand when they are weak

[racedo]

Like all peripheral countries - they contract when the Big Boy in the area is strong and then expand when they are weak

Friendly neighbour is better.

[West Coast]

Its one thing to be denied productive fishing grounds at the end of a rifle, voluntarily cede them and I'll be curious to see how long he stays in office. The Philipinos I know are a very proud lot.

[chopper2004]

The Philippines Is About to Give Up the South China Sea to China - Defense One (http://www.defenseone.com/threats/2016/10/philippines-about-give-south-china-sea-china/132319/?oref=d-rive)
A bit more on that story here,

cheers

Duterte announces separation from US, shifts to China, Russia - Pacific - Stripes (http://www.stripes.com/news/pacific/duterte-announces-separation-from-us-shifts-to-china-russia-1.434982)

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/15/images-show-significant-chinese-weapons-systems-in-south-china-sea

China appears to have positioned “significant” weapons systems, including anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems, on all seven of the artificial islands it has built in the South China Sea, despite vowing it had no intention of militarising the archipelago, a US thinktank has claimed.

During a state visit to the United States last year President Xi Jinping publicly stated that China did “not intend to pursue militarisation” of the strategic and resource-rich trade route through which about $4.5tn (£3.4tn) in trade passes each year. However, satellite images released on Wednesday by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies appeared to show Beijing was doing just that........

[Arclite01]

Why are we even vaguely surprised ?

Arc

[Lyneham Lad]

More military machinations... (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/16/china-live-fires-aircraft-carrier-group-amid-taiwan-tensions-with-us)

China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier battle group has conducted its first exercises with live ammunition, the country’s navy said, in a show of strength as tensions with the US and Taiwan escalate.

[T28B]

Of course they are doing live fire exercises. They are the Navy of a major power. They are doing what all medium to large sized powers do: training their fleet. They'd be foolish not to.

[A_Van]

Indeed, they need to train. And though we all are concerned with their growing military potential, they do not raise any question when a US fleet does exercises in the Carribean or Gulf of Mexico. Or do they?

[West Coast]

Van

What is the general viewpoint in Russia of an increasingly powerful Chinese military? Certainly the views of many other of iits neighbors are known, curious how the man on the street views it.

[sitigeltfel]

China siezes unmanned underwater research vehicle...

China 'seizes US vessel' in S China Sea - BBC News (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-38347221)

[Cows getting bigger]

Trump's first test. Hmmmm.

Perhaps cozying-up to old Vlad isn't such a bad idea, right now?

[A_Van]

West Coast,

Hi to San Diego, first of all. Just recalled the beautiful Coronado hotel.

Unfortunately, my strong feeling is that the issue of growing Chinese mil. power is not given due attention here. The local establishment (to the extent this word is applicable to our current realities) thinks that since they again consider and call each other "comrads", no threat exists. But the history teaches that China always had its own agenda.
Accordingly, the local media is not talking about this issue at all, except for specialized journals and TV-programs that have very little audience. Therefore, ordinary men in the street, as you put it, do not really care. They may start complaining about crowds of misbehaved Chinese in any tourist destination they use to visit worldwide, but not about military threats.
Thus, it looks to me that both Russia and the West are making big mistakes. We help them with weapons, you help them with general industrial growth. Stupid.

[West Coast]

Van

Interesting viewpoint, thanks for the reply.

[Lonewolf_50]

Trump's first test. Uh, check the calendar. January 20. The current President is still on the job.

[The Sultan]

China pulled same kind of stunt just after Obama was in office. The research ship went back shortly after with a destroyer nearby. Chinese got the message.

Under Shrub they took out the EP-3.

Since Trump fired the first shot this time, China decided to send an early response.

The Sultan

[Cows getting bigger]

Uh, check the calendar. January 20. The current President is still on the job.

Indeed he is. And the man you guys recently elected is already contributing to the chaos.

[ShotOne]

By "contributing to the chaos" do you mean challenging the stance that there has to be an entirely different set of diplomatic protocols just for China? Does China ask Donald or Barack for permission every time the phone rings?

[Heathrow Harry]

"challenging the stance there has to be an entirely different set of diplomatic protocols just for China?"

Why not? They have ICBM's, they own several Trillion $ in cash and in US assets, they have a rather large Army... surely you're not suggesting they get the same treatment as Laos???

[West Coast]

Why not? They have ICBM's, they own several Trillion $ in cash and in US assets, they have a rather large Army... surely you're not suggesting they get the same treatment as Laos???

Why? We have ICBM's, we are a financial key to China's continued financial success and we have a large military... surely you're not suggesting the US must toe the line and not talk with democratically elected leader of a nation we do extensive business with. How far the Chinese have come when they have even anonymous posters afraid of angering them.

[lomapaseo]

Thus, it looks to me that both Russia and the West are making big mistakes. We help them with weapons, you help them with general industrial growth. Stupid.

Not quite

In my last china visit for business my counterpart and myself had a frank talk and we agreed that in spite of the visible pissing contests what we were most interested in was our mutual business interests $$$$$

If Trump gets pressured he wont fire a shot but will re-do a treaty

[Lyneham Lad]

Hedging their bets? Article on Flight Global:-
Beijing receives first four Su-35s (https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/beijing-receives-first-four-su-35s-432994/)

[esa-aardvark]

Snippet on NZ news tonight (10/1/2017 here) seemed to show
fighter jets launching & recovering to a Chinese carrier.
No idea of accuracy.

[Lonewolf_50]

Snippet on NZ news tonight (10/1/2017 here) seemed to show
fighter jets launching & recovering to a Chinese carrier.
No idea of accuracy. If true, good for them, and welcome to the club. It's got a restricted membership. My naval aviation bias may be showing here. :cool:

[Lyneham Lad]

Snippet from an article in the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/12/no-access-rex-tillerson-sets-collision-course-beijing-south-china-sea)

Rex Tillerson, Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, has set the stage for a potential clash with China, saying it should be barred from artificial islands it has built in the South China Sea.

Tillerson said China’s control and construction of artificial islands in waters claimed by neighbouring countries was “akin to Russia’s taking of Crimea”.

Bluster or setting out a position?

[ORAC]

Has China Been Practicing Preemptive Missile Strikes Against U.S. Bases? (https://warontherocks.com/2017/02/has-china-been-practicing-preemptive-missile-strikes-against-u-s-bases/)

China upgrades military infrastructure on South China Sea islands (http://www.defensenews.com/articles/china-upgrades-military-infrastructure-on-south-china-sea-islands-report-claims)

[Heathrow Harry]

looks convincing but there again that's their job - just like all the stuff at Spadeadam I guess

[Fareastdriver]

China has too many domestic problems of its own to start punching its weight internationally.

[ORAC]

It's normally when they have domestic problems they seek an external one to distract the mob - historically Japan.

[Heathrow Harry]

well,,, considering Japan invaded China and China never invaded Japan................

[ORAC]

Which is why they are chosen.

[Heathrow Harry]

us and the French...................

[Fareastdriver]

It looks like President Xi and President Trump are friends.

Xi, Trump agree to boost win-win cooperation, develop constructive China-U.S. ties - Xinhua | English.news.cn (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-02/10/c_136047185.htm)

[TEEEJ]

BEIJING (AP) — A Chinese early warning aircraft and a U.S. Navy patrol plane had an "unsafe" encounter over the South China Sea this week, the U.S. Pacific Command said Friday, in the first such incident known to have taken place under President Donald Trump's administration.

The interaction between a Chinese KJ-200 and a U.S. Navy P-3C plane took place on Wednesday in international airspace, Pacific Command spokesman Robert Shuford said. He did not say what was unsafe about the encounter, although the term usually implies planes flying too close to one another.

Shuford says the U.S. plane was on a routine mission and operating according to international law. The Department of Defense and the Pacific Command "are always concerned about unsafe interactions with Chinese military forces," he said.

The Chinese Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to a faxed request for comment.

However, the website of the Communist Party newspaper Global Times quoted an unidentified ministry official as saying that the Chinese pilot had responded in a "legal and professional manner."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/us-chinese-aircraft-unsafe-encounter-over-china-sea-091723605.html

[Fareastdriver]

China has too many domestic problems of its own

To give you a rough idea.

China aims to relocate 3.4 mln people in 2017 to tackle poverty | Shanghai Daily (http://www.shanghaidaily.com/nation/China-aims-to-relocate-34-mln-people-in-2017-to-tackle-poverty/shdaily.shtml)

[Heathrow Harry]

They have a shortish (10-15 year) window to do anything serious - as the population ages they will have to spend more and more on health care etc (sound familiar?) and they don't have a load of immigrants ready to arrive

the current 1-5 and 6-10 year cohorts are around 75 million each - but the 45-50 group is about 145 million = in 10 years every young worker will be supporting two of the elderly

Less and less money will be available for the military

[Fareastdriver]

Some nice pictures in Xinhua.

Highlights of Chinese Air Force in 2016 - Xinhua | English.news.cn (http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2016-12/23/c_135926878.htm)

[T28B]

Your demographic points are well offered, Harry ...
Less and less money will be available for the military
If you honestly believe that it is "the military that will get shorted" then I'll suggest that you do not understand the Chinese at all.

[Fareastdriver]

I'll second that. Whilst I worked in China, 1994-2009 the Chinese military was transformed from a Stalin era monolith to an advanced fighting machine. They still have some traditional organisational drawbacks to overcome but modern equipment; no problem.

[Shackman]

With all this talk of the South China Sea and Spratly Islands, maybe we (the UK) could also claim some form of 'ownership'; a Shackleton of 205 Sqn crashed on/near Sin Cowe Island on December 9, 1958, and some of the crew were buried there. The island was quite deserted in those days. Until the pull out from FEAF we used to regularly patrol over and around them - I like to think keeping the status quo.

[Ormeside28]

Shackman. I was on 205 at the time of Stan Bouttell's crash near the island of Sin Cowe. At the time I was co-pilot to John Elias and after some days and intensive search by many aircraft we found the grave on the island with B205 marked out and a wooden cross( now in St Eval Church). A British Naval party also on the search, landed and recovered the body of the engineer , Flight Sergeant Dancy. He was the only one recovered and taken back to Singapore. There was also an arrow in coral pointing north so we thought that there were survivors so we asked to investigate north. We checked the Spratleys and Hainan and landed at Hong Kong. No trace of survivors but many months later a Formosan fisherman, who had been fishing near Sin Cowe, saw the Shackleton crash and recovered the only body which was taken to the island and buried. The fisherman was later rewarded with gold by a grateful government.

[Lyneham Lad]

In today's Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/feb/22/china-close-to-finishing-buildings-on-south-china-sea-islands-that-could-house-missiles-us-says):-

China close to finishing buildings on South China Sea islands that could house missiles, US says.

China, in an early test of US President Donald Trump, is nearly finished building almost two dozen structures on artificial islands in the South China Sea that appear designed to house long-range surface-to-air missiles, two US officials told Reuters.

The development is likely to raise questions about whether and how the United States will respond, given its vows to take a tough line on China in the South China Sea.

[Heathrow Harry]

"If you honestly believe that it is "the military that will get shorted" then I'll suggest that you do not understand the Chinese at all."

times change, even China is changing- I don't think they'll turn into a Western Style democracy but public pressures still exist - they're having to do something about air pollution for example........ when you have a herd of old people around what are they going to do with them? Let them starve? Shoot them??

[unmanned_droid]

Maybe a surprise attack on Japan using 'tourists' over a certain age is a mitigation against healthcare and support of the elderly...

[Brat]

times change, even China is changing- I don't think they'll turn into a Western Style democracy but public pressures still exist - they're having to do something about air pollution for example........ when you have a herd of old people around what are they going to do with them? Let them starve? Shoot them??
They will die quickly enough... from air pollution.

[Fareastdriver]

They pickle in old age quite well.

There is a tomb near Wuhan of a fairly well off Chinese man who died about a thousand years ago. The tomb, a small wooden cabin, had leaked silt that had preserved his body to an amazing degree. He was still complete, externally, internally and still flexible.

The carried an autopsy and found the cause of death was a stomach problem. His lungs, despite being covered with lamp black were in good condition and did not contribute to his death.

The old ones have spent half their life in small, unventilated sheds with a coal or wood fire keeping them warm.

Pollution? Child's play.

[EESDL]

Is there an internationally-accepted legal limit to the amount of land a country can 'make' by dredging/landfill?
Numerous countries with a shoreline do it but surely there must be a limit?
If you decide to dump a load of hardcore in the sea and make an island, which legal entity permits you to claim it - despite it being in international waters?
eg. What is to stop Singapore or Hong Kong from filling in more areas of their coastal waters?
If it is still with-in your original territorial maritime limits, then are those limits extended further to cater for the 'new' land - thereby reducing 'International' waters.
I guess if you are a big enough entity then you can do what you like, especially if your actions are tolerated/ignored by trading partners.
It is one thing to argue about perceived historical rights of once deserted islands but to make an island in the middle of nowhere for the purpose of extending your power base and aspirations can only lead to strife and does not bode well.
Cherry-picking only the convenient international conventions is a practice performed by countries if they are allowed.
After all, who is going to front-up to this particular bully?
Trump that.....

[Heathrow Harry]

I don't think there are any limits on what you do in your own territorial waters

"International " waters a bit of a mis-nomer or a red herring as you have the right to free pasage through almost any waters - even territorial waters

The problem with dredging is where do you get the sand from? Malaysia and Indonesia complain that Singapore are getting their sand from their areas

You can extend your economc zone that way but its an expensive way of doing it... and you can keep doing it until you run into someone elses at which point you have to agree.

Look at the N Sea - the Dutch and the Danes originally came to an agreement that stitched up the Germans but it was changed later when germany woke up........

[Less Hair]

Legally a reef in international waters remains a reef in international waters even after you start to fill it up and claim it is an island now and your territory. This is what USS Stennis will prove soon. Enroute from Hawaii.

[ORAC]

SNAFU!: Did China just float a Marine Regiment? (http://www.snafu-solomon.com/2017/02/did-china-just-float-marine-regiment.html)

[Heathrow Harry]

Less hair is correct - building an airstrip on a reef deosn't make it legally an island that you own - but the Chinese beg to differ......

[Lordflasheart]

EESDL - Land grab limits ?

The Unclos Arbitral Award dated 12 July 2016 explains it all – in 501 pages. Simple it ain’t, but it’s all in there, in very specific detail.

https://pca-cpa.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/175/2016/07/PH-CN-20160712-Award.pdf

The side that won accepted the verdict in full and also paid the costs of the side that lost, but seems to want to negotiate away their righteous position.

The side that lost didn’t bother to turn up, said ‘get stuffed’ to the verdict, and if anything has increased construction activities including, as we know, some serious militarisation, in the name of peace and humanitarian brotherly love, that (until they did it) they earnestly assured everyone they wouldn’t do.

I liked the planning application for their development of Scarborough that appeared a year ago. I'll see if I can find the pic again. Could have been a spoof though.

LFH

....................

[Lordflasheart]

The Scarborough Development Plan is on this brief thread here

http://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/579041-insight-into-china-s-east-south-china-sea-strategy.html

HH The problem with dredging is where do you get the sand from? Mostly by using numerous ginormous ‘cutter-dredgers’ which grind out the local coral to a water depth of 30 metres and pump it ashore thru’ floating pipes, to where you want it put. ..... but only after you've let your fisher militia dredge up all the valuable giant clamshells to turn into tourist trinkets.

Additionally by using numerous large ro-ro barges to shuttle-ship in large quantities of rock (limestone ?) cut from mainland quarries such as the Tielugang Quarry 5 clicks over the hill NE from the newish Dalian Navy Base on Hainan Island. It’s actually the only suitable quarry I can find on the whole PRC coastline. You can see them loading on GE with several waiting offshore. Try cycling the timeline.

LFH

............

[West Coast]

China says it will fine US ships that don't comply with its new rules in South China Sea (http://www.wearethemighty.com/articles/china-says-it-will-fine-us-ships-that-dont-comply-with-its-new-rules-in-south-china-sea)

Guess they'll be taking donations from the crew.

[Heathrow Harry]

Thanks Flash - I was looking for that but couldn't remember the UN acronym.....

[Ddraig Goch]

Ah! the famous Scarbourgh Development Plan - I wondered why there were so many Chinese restaurants there!

[GlobalNav]

China says it will fine US ships that don't comply with its new rules in South China Sea (http://www.wearethemighty.com/articles/china-says-it-will-fine-us-ships-that-dont-comply-with-its-new-rules-in-south-china-sea)

Guess they'll be taking donations from the crew.
Self-propelled donations?

[ORAC]

https://www.japantoday.com/category/national/view/japan-scrambling-more-fighters-in-response-to-chinas-activities

TOKYO —
Japan’s Defense Ministry has doubled the number of fighter jets scrambled in each response to foreign airplanes approaching its airspace on the back of China’s intensifying military activities around the disputed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, government sources say.

Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force began scrambling four fighter jets since last year in each case of potential airspace violation by foreign aircraft, they said. The ASDF previously sent two jets in each scramble since it began such missions in 1958.

The number of scrambles by Japan and China has been surging in areas near the Japan-controlled, China-claimed Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture where the two countries’ air defense identification zones overlap. The two countries have yet to establish a communication mechanism to avoid any accidental aerial or maritime clash.

Between April last year and January, the number of scrambles Japan engaged in already eclipsed the annual record of 944 in fiscal 1984 when Soviet airplanes were active in the Cold War period. According to the sources, an increasing number of Chinese aircraft have been flying past the northern latitude of 27 degrees, which Japan sees as a defense line to keep Chinese planes out of the area between the latitude 25 and 26 degrees north where the Senkakus are located.

Of the four F-15 jets scrambled each time, two in the rear will be on alert to deal with approaches of additional aircraft. The ASDF has also extended the duration of a mission called combat air patrol and begun sending more E-2C early warning aircraft and a surveillance plane known as airborne early warning and control system, or AWACS, during a scramble.

In January last year, the Defense Ministry doubled the number of F-15s stationed at its base in Naha, Okinawa, to about 40, but more frequent scrambles and the increased number of fighter jets flown in each mission led to a shortage of jets on standby. To more flexibly operate aircraft, the air defense command in Tokyo has started controlling fighter jets across different regions, reviewing such rules as the minimum number of aircraft needed for standby at each composite air division.

[reynoldsno1]

Malaysia and Indonesia complain that Singapore are getting their sand from their areas
The most dramatic impact of ocean sand mining is surely felt in Indonesia, where sand miners have completely erased at least two dozen islands since 2005. The stuff of those islands mostly ended up in Singapore, which needs titanic amounts to continue its programme of artificially adding territory by reclaiming land from the sea. The city-state has created an extra 20 square miles in the past 40 years and is still adding more, making it by far the world’s largest sand importer. The demand has denuded beaches and river beds in neighbouring countries to such an extent that Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam have all restricted or banned the export of sand to Singapore.

More at
https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2017/feb/27/sand-mining-global-environmental-crisis-never-heard

[Onceapilot]

Hmmm, Territory grabs, maybe the cause of most war!:uhoh:

OAP

[West Coast]

https://www.navytimes.com/articles/top-philippine-officials-fly-to-us-carrier-in-disputed-sea?utm_content=buffer501ed&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

[ORAC]

Alert 5 » North Korea rehearse striking MCAS Iwakuni - Military Aviation News (http://alert5.com/2017/03/11/north-korea-rehearse-striking-mcas-iwakuni/)

[Just This Once...]

There seems to be too much focus on the NK embryonic nuclear capability. They have mastered ballistic missiles and recently demonstrated their VX capability. VX is incredibly difficult to make, but very easy to weaponise. They appear to have all they need to achieve mass destruction in Japan and other potential targets.

Worrying times.

[A_Van]

JTO,

Indeed, you are right about "shifting the focus". Though this NK ugly shorty would unlikely threaten the US territory, Japan and South Korea are under threat.

But is it really difficult to make VX on a country level? I am not an expert in chemistry, but using a common sense: it was developed in mid 50's in UK by the guys working for agriculture to fight weeds :-) No serious MoD investment, no huge plants in their possession. There was even an open GB patent with all the formulas, reaction chain description, etc. Might be impossible to make for jihadists hiding in the holes, but not for a militarized economy of the 25 mln country.

IMHO, helas, it is only China that can change all that (the NK regime), in a "couple of clicks". But they obviously do not want to: no need for them to scare their long-term rival (Japan) themselves. Let Kim do that.

[Heathrow Harry]

I think China has a number of reservations about regime -change

1. They are not sure it can be done peaceably and they don't want a couple of million refugees flooding in

2. They sure as hell don't want a united (western) Korea across the border

3. They have strong prejudice about people interfering in other people's countrries

[Lyneham Lad]

Article in the Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/mar/14/us-to-deploy-missile-capable-drones-across-border-from-north-korea)

Deployment of Grey Eagle drones, designed to carry Hellfire missiles, in the South represents significant build-up of US military muscle.

[westernhero]

I don't know much about NK but the Guardian comments pages sure are filled with loony tunes who just hate the US with a capital H. NK ? All the US's fault, NK threaten all their neighbors? The US's fault. In fact everything anywhere in the world is apparently the fault of the US. Have they always been like this ? Really odd people.

[Fareastdriver]

Some piccies of the PLAAF.

http://http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/photo/2016-12/23/c_135926878.htm

[ORAC]

Don't waste time, do they?

Warning that Beijing's military bases in South China Sea are ready for use

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/28/beijing-military-bases-south-china-sea-ready

[Lyneham Lad]

Article in today's Guardian: (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/05/chinese-patrol-ships-keep-presence-around-malaysian-reefs)-
Extract - Chinese coastguard vessels maintain a near-constant presence around reefs claimed by Malaysia in the South China Sea, ship-tracking data shared with the Guardian has revealed.

The findings show the extent of Beijing’s military ambitions far south of its borders, antagonising south-east Asian countries and deepening a potentially explosive foreign policy crisis with the US president, Donald Trump.

During the first two months of 2017, three Chinese ships patrolled the Luconia Shoals, an area of islets and reefs that are more than 1,000 miles (1,600km) from mainland China and only about 90 miles (145 km) north of Malaysian Borneo.

Something else to be discussed at Mar-a-Lago...

[ORAC]

Satellite images reveal Chinese expansion in South China Sea (http://www.defensenews.com/articles/satellite-images-reveal-chinese-expansion-in-south-china-sea)

[ORAC]

Satellite image shows Chinese deployment of new aircraft to South China Sea (http://www.defensenews.com/articles/satellite-image-shows-chinese-deployment-of-new-aircraft-to-south-china-sea)

[Heathrow Harry]

Well it makes sense to put your AEW assets closer to where they might be needed I'd have thought............

[Kerosene Kraut]

I'd say "the west" should react by, step by step, putting own assets into the area as well. P-8, base agreements, naval patrols, new permanent stuff. Make them pay a price for any tiny bit. They move - we move. THAAD was quite right.

[Heathrow Harry]

Trouble is not everyone in the area is that keen on risking a fight with China. the West (ok the USA) has to have agreements and treaties in place to build a permanent presence. The locals will want cast-iron guarantees that we'll back them if it all goes pear-shaped

[West Coast]

Who's the we in "we'll"?

[Heathrow Harry]

well of course I mean the generic "we" as the free thinking liberal people of the West...

But if it comes to Military action it actually means YOU as in the YOUSA - and maybe with whoever's arms you can twist on any specific issue...........

The rest of us will back them but only as far as a UN Resolution - God forbid military action - which is why the SE Asians are a bit worried about upsetting China

[racedo]

I'd say "the west" should react by, step by step, putting own assets into the area as well. P-8, base agreements, naval patrols, new permanent stuff. Make them pay a price for any tiny bit. They move - we move. THAAD was quite right.

So US wouldn't be that concerned if Cuba and China got friendly and China started moving missiles etc in ?

Some people want to go looking for a War all the time.

China hasn't attacked anybody yet everybody seemingly want to surround them with missiles and then claim it is China being belligerent.

[racedo]

well of course I mean the generic "we" as the free thinking liberal people of the West...


This Free thinking liberal bit I struggle with ................................... I believe in Dmocracy and Capitalism but struggle to find much of that in the west.

People with the most money can buy the Government they want in the west and then use that Govt in pursuit of their own goals.

Just exactly what is the purpose of the West ?

Millions of people living in poverty, no income yet "the leaders" instead of looking after their own population are rushing to start a war somewhere else.

It then becomes a rinse and repeat continuously even though it doesn't work.

[Stitchbitch]

http://http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/us-blasts-china-unprofessional-intercept-military-plane-fighter/ (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/19/us-blasts-china-unprofessional-intercept-military-plane-fighter/) Looks like someone's been watching Top Gun again...or they wanted pics of antennas on the top?

[jolihokistix]

Chinese 'coastguard' ships flying drones over the Senkaku Islands?


https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20170519_17/


Japan's Defense Minister Tomomi Inada has revealed that Self-Defense Force aircraft were scrambled when a drone was spotted near a Chinese ship in Japanese waters.

Inada told reporters on Friday that 2 F-15 fighters and an AWACS surveillance plane were dispatched after the sighting by the Coast Guard the previous day.

The drone was flying near one of 4 Chinese patrol ships that entered Japan's territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

Inada said the drone was operated by Chinese vessels that intruded into Japanese waters and this was a serious infringement of Japan's sovereignty.

The Foreign Ministry lodged a protest with China on Thursday, saying the conduct could escalate tensions.

Japan controls the islands. The Japanese government maintains the islands are an inherent part of Japan's territory. China and Taiwan claim them.

[Boy_From_Brazil]

Al Jazeera news are reporting that a USAF surveillance aircraft has been buzzed within fifty metres, by a couple of Chinese interceptors.
A note for Top Gun fans....for a period, one interceptor flew inverted over the top of the USAF plane.

[ORAC]

Next generation SOSUS?

China builds huge underwater spy network in disputed seas (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/china-builds-huge-underwater-spy-network-in-disputed-seas-sxgjfv8bh)

Beijing is building a vast £230 million underwater spying network across the sea bed of disputed territory in the East China Sea and South China Sea raising fears that President Xi is plotting to seize new land and expand his military presence.

China will create a huge surveillance hub with underwater cameras, sensors and radars that will feed information back to Shanghai. It is suspected that Beijing will use the information to monitor shipping traffic and scrutinise any attempts by its neighbours who dispute China’s territorial claims in the region to grab back land. Beijing has said that the spying hub will give “round-the-clock, real-time, high-definition, multiple interface, and three-dimensional observations”.

While the ruling party initially said that the hub would advance oceanic studies, CCTV, the state-owned broadcaster, later said that it would also “meet the needs in other areas such as national defence and disaster warning.”......

The new underwater development is expected to take five years to complete. Jian Zhimin, dean of the School of Ocean and Earth Science at Tongji University in Shanghai, said: “Devices will be placed down on the sea bed through optical cables; in other words we’ll build a laboratory undersea to collect and send data back to us.” He added: “China is an ocean power . . . An ocean power must be able to go to the high seas and go global.”

Zhou Huaiyang, a professor at Tongji University, said he too believed that the underwater initiative could be used to endorse China’s territorial claims. “After its establishment, this system can also have some effects in other sectors, such as mining, mapping or ocean rights protection and national defence in addition to scientific research,” he said......

[Lonewolf_50]

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.




(Not much help in finding MH370, mind you).

[ORAC]

The far away threat just got a little closer to home. I wonder how much intelligence we have on Chinese weapons and counter measures?

Chinese navy transits English Channel. (http://www.snafu-solomon.com/2017/07/chinese-type-52-shows-up-off-coast-of-uk.html)

[hunterboy]

I should imagine very little.....seems to be the British way to muddle through, on the cheap.
The only thing going for it, is that it has got us this far, though I reckon more through luck than judgment. Let's hope this strategy takes us through the Brexit process......

[Fareastdriver]

Possibly sailed to Russia to get some reliable spare parts.

[ORAC]

DISPATCH FROM DOKLAM: INDIANS DIG IN FOR THE LONG HAUL IN STANDOFF WITH CHINA (http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2103881/dispatch-doklam-indians-dig-long-haul-standoff-china)

China will protect border with India ‘at all costs’ (http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2103864/chinas-defence-spokesman-warns-india-not-take-any)

[tartare]

Checked out Doklam on Google Maps yesty - what a god-forsaken spot.
Interesting reading about the relative strengths of the two countries' forces.
I'd always thought the Chinese would smash India as in `62.
But it seems India has a more capable Air-Force and Navy - and their navy would be a factor apparently - blockade to apply pressure some think.
But ultimately, China has more buckets of sunshine.
And they're mates with Pakistan.
Let's hope it doesn't escalate beyond shrieking at each other through the media...

[Prawn2king4]

PLA communique issued yesterday:

"China's navy will temporarily seal off part of the Yellow Sea to maritime traffic for "large-scale" military purposes, authorities announced, ahead of the coming 90th anniversary of the founding of the People's Liberation Army."

[Heathrow Harry]

that article reads like one of those Indian articles published in 1962 - the PLA have much better logistics and better terrain on the Tibetan side than the Indians have to the south - if push comes to shove I'm sure they could repeat '62 fairly easily

If only the British had surveyed the whole lot properly and the Chinese had signed up to the maps pre-1914 we wouldn't be in this mess

[ORAC]

"We" are not in it......... yet, anyway.....

[Cazalet33]

If only the British had surveyed the whole lot properly and the Chinese had signed up to the maps pre-1914 we wouldn't be in this mess

Actually the Admiralty's Hydrographic Department did survey the whole area remarkably well.

As for China "signing up" to their ownership of the Spratley's and Paracels, they'd been Chinese for hundreds of years and neither the British nor American empires demurred until extremely recently. The Japanese did, but that was only for a few years.

The Vietnamese started to get a bit cocky once they'd trounced the greatest Empire the world has ever known during The American War and now they feel that they've gone a bit far in pinching Chinese-owned mineral wealth from the 9 or 11 dash area. They've instructed Odfjell Drilling to plug and abandon the well they are drilling in China's patch and to withdraw the drillship Metro 1 from the area.

American imperial power in the region is on the wane. They lost major bases such as Da Nang and Cam Ranh and Clark and Subic. They still have the bases which they pinched from Japan in 1945, but in general they are on the wane and everyone in the region knows it.

[ORAC]

June 2017: USS Coronado pulls into Cam Ranh, Vietnam for short maintenance (http://navaltoday.com/2017/06/12/uss-coronado-pulls-into-cam-ranh-vietnam-for-short-maintenance/)

[West Coast]

American imperial power in the region is on the wane.


A little research shows your wishful thinking to be just that.

[Heathrow Harry]

Cazalet - I was thinking of the LAND border that caused the '62 War following Tartares post........

There the argument wasn't helped by poor maps - in the SCS no-one argues about the geographic locations - just how far you can push the boundary.......

The Chinese always used to be quite reasonable and adjusted the land boundary with most of their neighbours - but in the last 20 years they have started the "China as a Great Power" line and are pushing their sea boundaries wider and wider. As it takes two to agree any boundary it's causing a lot of this trouble.......

[ORAC]

The Chinese always used to be quite reasonable and adjusted the land boundary with most of their neighbours

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Soviet_border_conflict

https://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2014/07/03/where-do-borders-need-to-be-redrawn/why-china-will-reclaim-siberia

[glad rag]

The far away threat just got a little closer to home. I wonder how much intelligence we have on Chinese weapons and counter measures?

Chinese navy transits English Channel. (http://www.snafu-solomon.com/2017/07/chinese-type-52-shows-up-off-coast-of-uk.html)

"So your thinking of deploying your new flat-top (with an embarked USMC flight as you haven't any aircraft or it 笑声!!) in an attempt to intimidate us....

[ORAC]

Seems to me the deployment and intimidation is being done the other way round. Unless the Chinese navy is now going to claim the Baltic as Chinese national waters as well? :hmm::hmm:

[tartare]

I must admit - when I look at one belt, one road on a map, I am reminded of that sequence at the beginning of Dad's Army.
All those nasty arrows advancing across Europe.
India is kind of encircled - and China is pushing west over the top; China's plans for the road down into Pakistan and then on to a deep water port on the Arabian sea are fascinating, but... a little worrying to be honest.
Xi is a hard nosed strongman - and they are determined to assert their rightful place in history again.
Explains why all those MiGs were so damn busy when I visited Goa recently.

[KiloB]

If the theories are correct about China's intent, they would seem to be making the same mistake Germany made in '39. Picking on lots of opponents at the same time.
They may come to regret this.

[westernhero]

Just when we all need a little light relief along comes Boris

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jul/27/britains-new-aircraft-carriers-to-test-beijing-in-south-china-sea#comment-102772523

Is this just a cunning stunt to see if the Chinese want to buy the 2nd one. ' as new, never been used ' ?

[tartare]

So Boris - are the new carriers coming down to the South China Sea - or not?
Sounded like a bit of a brain fart which he subsequently thought better of between opening his mouth and the Q&A, where he then contradicted himself.

[Frostchamber]

I think some in senior positions would do well to remember that it's "speak softly and carry a big stick". OK we can debate the size and effectiveness of the stick but the speak softly bit holds. For example, recent comments on the Russians envying our carrier were frankly toe-curling and really not needed. Let's confine pissing-highest-up-the-wall contests to the infant school toilets where they belong.

[ORAC]

So Boris - are the new carriers coming down to the South China Sea - or not?
Sounded like a bit of a brain fart which he subsequently thought better of between opening his mouth and the Q&A, where he then contradicted himself. No, he was merely following the line given by the Minister for Defence.

British warship to test troubled waters (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/british-warship-to-test-troubled-waters-jx830bd5c)

Britain is drawing up plans to send a warship to the South China Sea in a move that is likely to anger the Beijing government and raise tensions at a delicate moment. Sir Michael Fallon, the defence secretary, confirmed yesterday that the vessel would be deployed next year and told China that she would expect free passage in the disputed waters.......

Sir Michael, visiting Sydney for talks with his Australian counterpart, said: “We hope to send a warship to the region next year. We have not finalised exactly where that deployment will take place but we won’t be constrained by China from sailing through the South China Sea. We have the right of freedom of navigation and we will exercise it.”

A Type-45 destroyer or an ageing Type-23 frigate is likely to be involved; the first time in at least a decade that Britain has tested the right to conduct such an exercise in the disputed waters. It is a significant change of approach. Rear-admiral Chris Parry, a former Royal Navy officer, applauded Sir Michael’s announcement. “This is a big deal,” he said. “I have been urging the Americans to challenge the UK to say, ‘Come and join us in doing this because we can’t do it on our own.’ ”......

The British warship mission, whatever form it takes, will be fraught. Rear-admiral Parry said that the Chinese military might consider an attack. “The Chinese won’t want to take on the Americans but they might consider making an example of what they consider to be a small nation like us.” Britain will probably choose to place its warship as part of a US-led aircraft carrier group when it makes the trip through the South China Sea, he said.

Earlier this month China reacted aggressively toward the US when it sent the USS Stethem, a destroyer, within 12 miles of the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. The islands are occupied by China but are also claimed by Vietnam. The Chinese foreign ministry accused the US of trespassing within China’s territorial waters and said military vessels and fighter planes had been dispatched to warn off the American destroyer.

A number of British former naval officers have warned that any tough talk about freedom of navigation for British ships must be set against the reality of operating conditions at the Royal Navy, which has lost much of its capability to project power across the world after decades of decline.

[Heathrow Harry]

ahhh read it carefully .. " a warship"...

probably a River Class ... or a tanker on its way from S korea........

[Heathrow Harry]

ORAC

IIRC China negotiated (quietly) deals with Burma, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran in the pre 1962 period

The Indian case was negotiable but Nehru went public and would only negotiate if the CHinese gave him everything he wanted

Regretfully since the mid-80's China has taken a far more bellicose (and idiotic) approach to such matters (eg the 5/7/9/25...... dash line)

[ORAC]

China and India are reportedly preparing for full-scale war over a Himalayan border dispute (http://uk.businessinsider.com/china-and-india-are-reportedly-preparing-for-war-over-border-dispute-2017-8?r=US&IR=T)

Chinese and Indian troops are readying themselves for a possible armed conflict in the event they fail in their efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution to their border dispute on the Doklam plateau in the Himalayas, observers said.

On Friday, India’s defence minister Arun Jaitley told parliament that the country’s armed forces are “prepared to take on any eventuality” of the stand-off, Indian Express reported the same day. Sources close to the Chinese military, meanwhile, said that the People’s Liberation Army is increasingly aware of the possibility of war, but will aim to limit any conflict to the level of skirmishes, such as those contested by India and Pakistan in Kashmir.

“The PLA will not seek to fight a ground war with Indian troops early on. Instead it will deploy aircraft and strategic missiles to paralyse Indian mountain divisions stationed in the Himalayas on the border with China,” a military insider told the South China Morning Post on condition of anonymity, adding that he believes Indian troops will probably hold out for “no more than a week.” Another military source said that officers and troops from the Western Theatre Command have already been told to prepare for war with India over the Doklam crisis. “There is a voice within the army telling it to fight because it was Indian troops that intruded into Chinese territory in Donglang [Doklam],” the second source said. “Such a voice is supported by the public.”

Both sources said that China’s military believes any conflict will be controlled, and not spill over into other disputed areas, of which there are currently three along the 2,000km border between the two Asian giants. However, Indian defence experts warned that once the first shot is fired, the conflict may escalate into full-scale war. That in turn could result in New Delhi blockading China’s maritime lifeline in the Indian Ocean.

“Any Chinese military adventurism will get a fitting reply from the Indian military,” Dr Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, a research associate at the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore, told the Post. “Certainly, it will be detrimental for both, but if Beijing escalates [the conflict], it will not be limited. Perhaps, it may extend to the maritime domain as well,” he said. “If China engages in a military offensive against India, New Delhi will take all necessary measures ... [and will] respond to Chinese actions in its own way. Why only a border war? It could escalate to a full-scale India-China war,” he said.

Rajeswari Rajagopalan, a defence analyst from the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi, said that “in the event of a full-scale war, definitely India’s navy will prevent the Chinese navy from moving into the Bay of Bengal or the Indian Ocean.” China is heavily reliant on imported fuel and, according to figures published by state media, more than 80 per cent of its oil imports travel via the Indian Ocean or Strait of Malacca.

Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie said that India in 2010 established a naval base in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, close to the Strait of Malacca, where the narrowest sea channel is just 1.7km wide. “Since 2010, India has also upgraded two airstrips on the islands to serve fighters and reconnaissance aircraft,” he said. “All these moves pave the way for India to be able to blockade Chinese military and commercial ships from entering the Indian Ocean in the event of a naval conflict between the two countries.”.........

[Heathrow Harry]

well Doklam is a crazy area to go to war over - a tiny plateau (89 sq kms) that slopes down to the east into Bhutan and the argument seems to be exactly where the boundary lies across it

Not helped by the fact that Tibetan herdsmen have grazed the area in the summer for generations. The Chinese are sticking to a descrpttion in the Anglo -Chinese Treaty of 1890 (when the detailed geography wasn't really well known) and the Bhutan side on traditional useage.

The fact that India controls Bhutanese foreign relationships doesn't assist

[Lonewolf_50]

Let'em play.

[FakePilot]

Both sources said that China’s military believes any conflict will be controlled, and not spill over into other disputed areas,

Sounds like famous last words but I suppose it's possible.

[West Coast]

India-China tensions escalate as soldiers hurl stones at each other in Kashmir | The Independent (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/india-china-tensions-kashmir-soldiers-throw-stones-at-each-other-a7897241.html)

Rocks today....

[ORAC]

China's plans to rule the seas hit trouble in Pakistan (http://www.politico.eu/article/china-plans-to-rule-seas-hit-trouble-in-pakistan-balochistan/)

http://g8fip1kplyr33r3krz5b97d1.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/PakistanMap2-01-1160x1029.png

[tartare]

Hmmm - so as well as the underwater Great Wall (http://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-undersea-great-wall-16222), this (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2144721-chinas-quantum-submarine-detector-could-seal-south-china-sea/) could make life tricky for submariners.

[Rossian]

.....closely resembles a map of the settlements created by the Chinese admiral who took a huge fleet a very long way in 1421. But was it all true one asks?

An interesting read if nothing else "1421 the Year the Chinese discovered the World" by Gavin Menzies.
There are debunkers around the discussion.

The Ancient Mariner

[ORAC]

COUNTERING CHINESE COERCION: THE CASE OF DOKLAM (https://warontherocks.com/2017/08/countering-chinese-coercion-the-case-of-doklam/)

CHINA’S MILITARY BASE IN DJIBOUTI: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR INDIA (https://warontherocks.com/2017/08/chinas-military-base-in-djibouti-strategic-implications-for-india/)

[Lonewolf_50]

Don't you think it's about time that the non Western world got to have it's version of the Cold War, all with chest thumping the finger pointing and giving each other the Mickey all the time? It is China's and India's turn, by golly, to embrace the Power versus Power madness. As the two most populous nations on the planet, I say they have as much a right as anyone to do some push-and-push-back stuff.

Lay on, Macduff! And damned be him that first cries, “Hold, enough!”

I'll invest in popcorn futures (even though this fight looks a lot like Mayweather (China) versus McGregor (India) at the moment).

[Heathrow Harry]

ORAc - interesting link about DOKLAM

What I find interesting is that here the Chinese stand by the 1890 Treaty and Bhutan/India stand on historic useage

Elsewhere the Indian side stands on UK/Tibet treaties and the CHinese on historic useage........

This sort of border friction occurs when you have treaties and claims based on 19th Century maps and travellers tales which were incorporated into treaties & claims between much larger countries a long way from the action.

The only peaceful and permanent solution is for BOTH sides to be willing to give and take - and to get some decent maps to work with. The US - Mexico Border is a great example of what can be achieved by quietly adjusting things over a period of years

[ORAC]

India army chief: we must prepare for simultaneous war with China and Pakistan (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/07/india-army-chief-we-must-prepare-for-simultaneous-war-with-china-and-pakistan)

[Lonewolf_50]

Have at it, General.
As Vegetius said (https://www.thoughtco.com/if-you-want-peace-prepare-for-war-121446)... Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum

[ORAC]

Rand Corporation: Conflict with China Revisited - Prospects, Consequences, and Strategies for Deterrence (https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE248.html)

[Heathrow Harry]

"This Perspective was sponsored by the United States Army"

not surprising it suggest irect action may be necessary then........

[Heathrow Harry]

Key Findings

The United States Will Likely Find Itself Forced to Shift From Deterrence by Denial, Based on Direct Defense of Its Interests and Allies in the Western Pacific, to Deterrence by Punishment, Based on the Threat of Escalation



The United States may be able to reduce or delay reliance on escalatory responses by shifting to less vulnerable platforms: longer-range precision strike drones and vessels to carry longer-range drones and submarines, along with the further dispersal of bases and force flows.
The United States can encourage and assist allies and partners in the region to increase the range and capabilities of their own air and sea defenses.
Barring unforeseen technological developments, it will not be possible for the United States to confidently and indefinitely rely on the direct defense of its regional interests.


Recommendations



The United States should focus on deescalating localized clashes in East Asia.
The United States should move sooner rather than later — before its power position in the region diminishes further — to constructively engage China across a range of potential flash points, such as conflicting maritime claims in the South China Sea, cross-Strait relations, issues on the Korean Peninsula.
The United States should maintain a dense network of diplomatic relationships with China while strengthening channels for crisis communications, including regular leader-to-leader, military-to-military contacts.

[A_Van]

"Deterrence by punishment"..... Sounds a bit awkward and strange.

IMHO, all those RANDs, Heritage Foundation, etc. try to look like oracles, but often either tell trivial things (that are clear for all who know how to use brains) or make very poor predictions.

Read, e.g. what they were predicting about NK some 10-15 years ago. That it would not be a real threat for US in many decades. Now that known "enfant terrible" uses their papers in toilet.

As for China, the communist regime is doing everything according to long term plans. Not a big deal to calculate what they could build (ships, planes, etc.) with the budget they allocate. Some years ago, their budget to equip Navy sky-rocketed which meant that in some 10-15 years they would be a major player.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times this afternoon:-

Beijing shows off island barracks in disputed South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-shows-off-island-barracks-in-disputed-waters-rbgtg7q06?shareToken=41b76099073b6cbb165eb18671cb0b73)

Snip:-
China has broadcast footage showing its troops guarding a fortified reef in the South China Sea, leading to protests from countries with competing claims to the disputed territory.

CCTV, the state broadcaster, also revealed aerial images of Fiery Cross Reef in high resolution, confirming that it has been expanded to accommodate a 3,000m runway, a port and barracks.

[Cazalet33]

Can't possibly be legal to reclaim land at sea, cannit?

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/article_large/public/thumbnails/image/2017/03/10/12/nsisland.jpg

Dogger Bank/Island is an example.

The Chinese are merely making a dream reality.

[ORAC]

Perfectly acceptable - inside your own territorial limits or EEZ.

Their dream - and all their neighbours’ nightmare....

[West Coast]

You don’t recognize the difference Caz?

[unmanned_droid]

Can't possibly be legal to reclaim land at sea, cannit?

https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/styles/article_large/public/thumbnails/image/2017/03/10/12/nsisland.jpg

Dogger Bank/Island is an example.

The Chinese are merely making a dream reality.

I'd like to think you're being cynical rather than that being your actual opinion on this.

[Cazalet33]

Their dream - and all their neighbours’ nightmare....

https://s9.postimg.org/74jt83o0v/HLK.jpg

[Fareastdriver]

Nice picture of Chep Lap Kok, Caz.

[ORAC]

Preparing for a Rematch at the Top of the World (https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/preparing-rematch-top-world)

[Heathrow Harry]

Well if the Falklands War was famously described as two bald men fighting over a comb I'm not sure what you'd call a fight over Doklam - a place so remote and so bloody useless (unless you are in the yak business) it's not true.

Google it to see the images.......

I guess if you want to fight at Doklam it has the benefit that collateral damage to civilians, civilisation and anything of value will be near zero................