The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

[Asturias56]

"They need to outthink rather than out supply chain the Chinese. Once the noise starts there is limited resupply capacity, so they need a very large ready reserve distributed across the island in all of the hideouts and bomb shelters"

Agreed - it might be a week before the anyone agrees to help and then it's a long way and the Chinese will do their damnedest to isolate them so large stocks are a necessity

Interesting you mention the possibility of economic bubbles fdr - the Govt is spending a lot of money propping up the housing market apparently all ads to the strain

[ORAC]

Wow….

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/us-wont-rule-out-military-action-if-china-establishes-base-in-solomon-islands?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1650947312

US won’t rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands

[fdr]

Wow….

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/26/us-wont-rule-out-military-action-if-china-establishes-base-in-solomon-islands?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_gu&utm_medium&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1650947312

US won’t rule out military action if China establishes base in Solomon Islands

Odd world we live in at present.

Solomon Islands is an odd place. The sort of oddities are one politican who was jailed for 18 months for assault and possession of a deadly weapon, and then after release he became the head of the police force. Went on to be Minister of foreign affairs, and got dismissed from that sometime later. Now still on board of directors for govt instrumentalities.

The China-SOL matter looked clear-cut at first but turns out that SOL had been working on recognition of TWN, and a certain country sent diplomats to TWN, and the TWN-SOL deal fell flat on its face. That was pretty disappointing that the certain country involved would act in such a way, as they also would wish to recognize TWN but are too busy groveling themselves to the PRC.

Law and order in SOL has it's moments, sometimes it is quiet, on other occasions, there is a stirring of the pot and stuff happens.

With the blatant aggression in the SCS and SOJ/East Sea by PRC from PLAAF and PLAN, the region of the South Pacific gets an unwelcome destabilization by the PRC-SOL agreement and the use by PLAN and possibly the PLAAF of Solomon Islands as a forward operating base.

[tartare]

Seems to indicate that if permanent PLAN or PLAAF facilities looked likely to be set up, the Solomons might face a US blockade!

[Asturias56]

"Law and order in SOL has it's moments, sometimes it is quiet, on other occasions, there is a stirring of the pot and stuff happens."

Much the same across whole region from Timor Leste to Fiji - these are not stable entities really

TBH it's all a very small pot with very few people. The Chinese can build a base in the Solomon's but it won't do them any good and it can be taken out very quickly if there's a need - just look at the supply line !

[Big Pistons Forever]

It will be very interesting to see what lessons the PLA learns from the Russian failures in Ukraine. The current PLA force structure has all off the problems the Russian military has and in addition lacks any senior officers with actual war fighting experience.

The next few years will be very telling. A major restructuring of the PLA into modern agile, joint units led by commanders with the autonomy to adapt to battlefield conditions in real time would be a very worryingly development for Taiwan.

I think the chance of that happening is low. The downside of the status quo is military senior leaders chosen for political fealty, not military competence and who will tell Xi only what he wants to hear, which is exactly how Putin vastly over committed with the Ukraine invasion.

Unfortunately either way the outlook for Taiwan is not great. The only difference is that the current PLA is unlikely to better than Russia is doing in Ukraine. However win, lose or draw Taiwan will be devastated.

[fdr]

It will be very interesting to see what lessons the PLA learns from the Russian failures in Ukraine. The current PLA force structure has all off the problems the Russian military has and in addition lacks any senior officers with actual war fighting experience.

The next few years will be very telling. A major restructuring of the PLA into modern agile, joint units led by commanders with the autonomy to adapt to battlefield conditions in real time would be a very worryingly development for Taiwan.

I think the chance of that happening is low. The downside of the status quo is military senior leaders chosen for political fealty, not military competence and who will tell Xi only what he wants to hear, which is exactly how Putin vastly over committed with the Ukraine invasion.

Unfortunately either way the outlook for Taiwan is not great. The only difference is that the current PLA is unlikely to better than Russia is doing in Ukraine. However win, lose or draw Taiwan will be devastated.


Political fealty is one of the major takeaways for China. Xi is not stupid, but he has made a system that is effectively blind due to his setup as Emperor.
TWN is not slow on the uptake. They would do well to add MANPADS by the gross distributed within the whole area of the country, along with ATWs.
Long term I can see a future for TWN, PRC is heading over a cliff and will have real issues within its own kingdom, from food insecurity, property bubble collapse, the whole house of cards deal, demographics, a decline in globalization that appears to be well underway from the last few years of logistical failures. TWN is smart enough and driven to maintain a defense that can outlast Xii's hold on power.

Ukraine is a learning opportunity all round, assuming that it is survived.

[West Coast]

Political fealty is one of the major takeaways for China. Xi is not stupid, but he has made a system that is effectively blind due to his setup as Emperor.
TWN is not slow on the uptake. They would do well to add MANPADS by the gross distributed within the whole area of the country, along with ATWs.
Long term I can see a future for TWN, PRC is heading over a cliff and will have real issues within its own kingdom, from food insecurity, property bubble collapse, the whole house of cards deal, demographics, a decline in globalization that appears to be well underway from the last few years of logistical failures. TWN is smart enough and driven to maintain a defense that can outlast Xii's hold on power.

Ukraine is a learning opportunity all round, assuming that it is survived.

Hopefully a cautionary tale as well, militarily, economically and geo-politically. Can’t imagine Xi wanting China to be marginalized the way Russia has become.

[Big Pistons Forever]

If Xi tells his Generals to invade Taiwan are they going say “Bad idea boss” or “Yes Sir ! “…….

[SASless]

Somehow I just do not see a Second Campaign to fight over an unwanted Airbase on Guadalcanal.

It was a close run thing the first time against a much less capable Military.

[tartare]

Somehow I just do not see a Second Campaign to fight over an unwanted Airbase on Guadalcanal.

It was a close run thing the first time against a much less capable Military.

Slightly more urgent view down here than `stateside.
Nowhere near as close as Cuba is to Key West.
But close enough to cause a major diversion of resources for the ADF if PLAN ships and PLAAF aircraft could base there and project power into the Coral Sea and points north.
Just keeping an eye on what they are doing could become very taxing.

[ORAC]

Japan’s ruling party is proposing to double the defence budget to £86 billion as fears grow of threats from China and Russia.

The move would increase military spending rising to 2 per cent of GDP, the benchmark set by NATO.

[Asturias56]

"It was a close run thing the first time against a much less capable Military."

I think at the time it was they were pretty well balanced. In the end it was US weight of arms that achieved a victory and the rest of the war showed just how tough the Japanese were

There is no post Korea data really to measure the PLA and absolutely zero on the effectiveness of the PLA(N) at any time

[beardy]

There is no post Korea data really to measure the PLA and absolutely zero on the effectiveness of the PLA(N) at any time
Perhaps the Sino - Vietnamese war (1979) can give some insights, although I imagine much will have changed.

[jolihokistix]

Japan’s ruling party is proposing to double the defence budget to £86 billion as fears grow of threats from China and Russia.

The move would increase military spending rising to 2 per cent of GDP, the benchmark set by NATO.
Multipurpose frigates Kumano and Mogami commissioned in March and April, Mogami just yesterday.
https://mainichi.jp/graphs/20220428/mpj/00m/040/036000f/1?inb=ys
For photos.
And...
Chinese PLA-N survey ship spotted threading in and out of the islands of Okinawa yesterday.
https://japantoday.com/category/national/Chinese-navy-ship-enters-Japan-waters-near-Kagoshima-Pref-islands


Quote: A Chinese navy vessel has been spotted in Japan's territorial waters near islands of the southwestern prefecture of Kagoshima, the Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

A survey ship entered Japanese waters from west of Kuchinoerabu Island at around 11 p.m. Tuesday and sailed out of the territorial waters south of Yakushima Island at around 2:10 a.m. Wednesday, the ministry said. It is the first such intrusion by a Chinese navy vessel that the Defense Ministry has confirmed and announced since last November. The Japanese government lodged a protest with China through diplomatic channels. The Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Japan Coast Guard monitored the passage of the Chinese vessel. Chinese ships have repeatedly entered Japan's territorial waters or navigated in adjacent areas, most notably near the Senkaku Islands, a group of East China Sea islets controlled by Japan but claimed by China under the name Diaoyu. China's growing military presence in the South and East China seas has been a source of friction with countries in the region, with some having overlapping territorial claims.

[fdr]

Multipurpose frigates Kumano and Mogami commissioned in March and April, Mogami just yesterday.
https://mainichi.jp/graphs/20220428/mpj/00m/040/036000f/1?inb=ys
For photos.
And...
Chinese PLA-N survey ship spotted threading in and out of the islands of Okinawa yesterday.
https://japantoday.com/category/national/Chinese-navy-ship-enters-Japan-waters-near-Kagoshima-Pref-islands

Quote: A Chinese navy vessel has been spotted in Japan's territorial waters near islands of the southwestern prefecture of Kagoshima, the Defense Ministry said Wednesday.

A survey ship entered Japanese waters from west of Kuchinoerabu Island at around 11 p.m. Tuesday and sailed out of the territorial waters south of Yakushima Island at around 2:10 a.m. Wednesday, the ministry said. It is the first such intrusion by a Chinese navy vessel that the Defense Ministry has confirmed and announced since last November. The Japanese government lodged a protest with China through diplomatic channels. The Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Japan Coast Guard monitored the passage of the Chinese vessel. Chinese ships have repeatedly entered Japan's territorial waters or navigated in adjacent areas, most notably near the Senkaku Islands, a group of East China Sea islets controlled by Japan but claimed by China under the name Diaoyu. China's growing military presence in the South and East China seas has been a source of friction with countries in the region, with some having overlapping territorial claims.Right of Transit PassageThe right of transit passage is defined as the exercise of the freedoms of navigation and overflight, solely for the purpose of continuous and expeditious transit through an international strait between one part of the high seas or an EEZ and another part of the high seas or an EEZ, in the normal modes of operation utilized by ships and aircraft for such passage. An exception to the right of transit passage declares that the right “shall not apply if the strait is formed by an island of a State bordering the strait and its mainland” and “there exists seaward of the island a route through the high seas or through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics. Transit passage cannot be hampered or suspended by the coastal State for any purpose during peacetime. This also applies to transiting ships, including warships, of States at peace with the bordering coastal State but involved in armed conflict with another State. The right of transit passage applicable in peacetime, along with the laws and regulations of States bordering straits adopted in accordance with international law, continue to apply during armed conflict. However, during transit belligerents must not conduct offensive operations against enemy forces, nor use such neutral waters as a place of sanctuary or as a base of operations.

Japan does not consider itself to be an archipelagic state, so UNCLOS Section 1, 2 and 3 apply. Interesting that China bleats about the innocent passage of the Spratleys and the other reefs that they have made sinking military establishments on, in contravention of the rulings of the UN under UNCLOS.

PART III



STRAITS USED FOR INTERNATIONAL NAVIGATION


SECTION 1. GENERAL PROVISIONS

Article34

Legal status of waters forming straits used for international navigation

1. The regime of passage through straits used for international navigation established in this Part shall not in other respects affect the legal status of the waters forming such straits or the exercise by the States bordering the straits of their sovereignty or jurisdiction over such waters and their air space, bed and subsoil.

2. The sovereignty or jurisdiction of the States bordering the straits is exercised subject to this Part and to other rules of international law.
Article35

Scope of this Part

Nothing in this Part affects:
(a) any areas of internal waters within a strait, except where the establishment of a straight baseline in accordance with the method set forth in article 7 has the effect of enclosing as internal waters areas which had not previously been considered as such;

(b) the legal status of the waters beyond the territorial seas of States bordering straits as exclusive economic zones or high seas; or

(c) the legal regime in straits in which passage is regulated in whole or in part by long-standing international conventions in force specifically relating to such straits.

Article36

High seas routes or routes through exclusive economic zones

through straits used for international navigation

This Part does not apply to a strait used for international navigation if there exists through the strait a route through the high seas or through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics; in such routes, the other relevant Parts of this Convention, including the provisions regarding the freedoms of navigation and overflight, apply.



SECTION 2. TRANSIT PASSAGE



Article37

Scope of this section

This section applies to straits which are used for international navigation between one part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone and another part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone.

Article38

Right of transit passage

1. In straits referred to in article 37, all ships and aircraft enjoy the right of transit passage, which shall not be impeded; except that, if the strait is formed by an island of a State bordering the strait and its mainland, transit passage shall not apply if there exists seaward of the island a route through the high seas or through an exclusive economic zone of similar convenience with respect to navigational and hydrographical characteristics.

2. Transit passage means the exercise in accordance with this Part of the freedom of navigation and overflight solely for the purpose of continuous and expeditious transit of the strait between one part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone and another part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone. However, the requirement of continuous and expeditious transit does not preclude passage through the strait for the purpose of entering, leaving or returning from a State bordering the strait, subject to the conditions of entry to that State.

3. Any activity which is not an exercise of the right of transit passage through a strait remains subject to the other applicable provisions of this Convention.

Article39

Duties of ships and aircraft during transit passage

1. Ships and aircraft, while exercising the right of transit passage, shall:
(a) proceed without delay through or over the strait;

(b) refrain from any threat or use of force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of States bordering the strait, or in any other manner in violation of the principles of international law embodied in the Charter of the United Nations;

(c) refrain from any activities other than those incident to their normal modes of continuous and expeditious transit unless rendered necessary by force majeure or by distress;

(d) comply with other relevant provisions of this Part.

2. Ships in transit passage shall:
(a) comply with generally accepted international regulations, procedures and practices for safety at sea, including the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea;

(b) comply with generally accepted international regulations, procedures and practices for the prevention, reduction and control of pollution from ships.

3. Aircraft in transit passage shall:
(a) observe the Rules of the Air established by the International Civil Aviation Organization as they apply to civil aircraft; state aircraft will normally comply with such safety measures and will at all times operate with due regard for the safety of navigation;

(b) at all times monitor the radio frequency assigned by the competent internationally designated air traffic control authority or the appropriate international distress radio frequency.

Article40

Research and survey activities

During transit passage, foreign ships, including marine scientific research and hydrographic survey ships, may not carry out any research or survey activities without the prior authorization of the States bordering straits.

Article41

Sea lanes and traffic separation schemes in straits

used for international navigation

1. In conformity with this Part, States bordering straits may designate sea lanes and prescribe traffic separation schemes for navigation in straits where necessary to promote the safe passage of ships.

2. Such States may, when circumstances require, and after giving due publicity thereto, substitute other sea lanes or traffic separation schemes for any sea lanes or traffic separation schemes previously designated or prescribed by them.

3. Such sea lanes and traffic separation schemes shall conform to generally accepted international regulations.

4. Before designating or substituting sea lanes or prescribing or substituting traffic separation schemes, States bordering straits shall refer proposals to the competent international organization with a view to their adoption. The organization may adopt only such sea lanes and traffic separation schemes as may be agreed with the States bordering the straits, after which the States may designate, prescribe or substitute them.

5. In respect of a strait where sea lanes or traffic separation schemes through the waters of two or more States bordering the strait are being proposed, the States concerned shall cooperate in formulating proposals in consultation with the competent international organization.

6. States bordering straits shall clearly indicate all sea lanes and traffic separation schemes designated or prescribed by them on charts to which due publicity shall be given.

7. Ships in transit passage shall respect applicable sea lanes and traffic separation schemes established in accordance with this article.

Article42

Laws and regulations of States bordering straits

relating to transit passage

1. Subject to the provisions of this section, States bordering straits may adopt laws and regulations relating to transit passage through straits, in respect of all or any of the following:
(a) the safety of navigation and the regulation of maritime traffic, as provided in article 41;

(b) the prevention, reduction and control of pollution, by giving effect to applicable international regulations regarding the discharge of oil, oily wastes and other noxious substances in the strait;

(c) with respect to fishing vessels, the prevention of fishing, including the stowage of fishing gear;

(d) the loading or unloading of any commodity, currency or person in contravention of the customs, fiscal, immigration or sanitary laws and regulations of States bordering straits.

2. Such laws and regulations shall not discriminate in form or in fact among foreign ships or in their application have the practical effect of denying, hampering or impairing the right of transit passage as defined in this section.

3. States bordering straits shall give due publicity to all such laws and regulations.

4. Foreign ships exercising the right of transit passage shall comply with such laws and regulations.

5. The flag State of a ship or the State of registry of an aircraft entitled to sovereign immunity which acts in a manner contrary to such laws and regulations or other provisions of this Part shall bear international responsibility for any loss or damage which results to States bordering straits.

Article43

Navigational and safety aids and other improvements

and the prevention, reduction and control of pollution

User States and States bordering a strait should by agreement cooperate:
(a) in the establishment and maintenance in a strait of necessary navigational and safety aids or other improvements in aid of international navigation; and

(b) for the prevention, reduction and control of pollution from ships.

Article44

Duties of States bordering straits

States bordering straits shall not hamper transit passage and shall give appropriate publicity to any danger to navigation or overflight within or over the strait of which they have knowledge. There shall be no suspension of transit passage.

SECTION 3. INNOCENT PASSAGE



Article45

Innocent passage

1. The regime of innocent passage, in accordance with Part II, section 3, shall apply in straits used for international navigation:
(a) excluded from the application of the regime of transit passage under article 38, paragraph 1; or

(b) between a part of the high seas or an exclusive economic zone and the territorial sea of a foreign State.

2. There shall be no suspension of innocent passage through such straits.

[jolihokistix]

Well, it was the middle of the night, and only 6 km offshore, and not an international waterway, and they have been caught laser mapping the sea floor around there before, allegedly for their subs. Plus, I think they were more interested in what the US is planning to do on nearby Mageshima, not mentioned of course in the article.

[fdr]

Well, it was the middle of the night, and only 6 km offshore, and not an international waterway, and they have been caught laser mapping the sea floor around there before, allegedly for their subs. Plus, I think they were more interested in what the US is planning to do on nearby Mageshima, not mentioned of course in the article.

Article 40 Research and survey activities

During transit passage, foreign ships, including marine scientific research and hydrographic survey ships, may not carry out any research or survey activities without the prior authorization of the States bordering straits.

[jolihokistix]

Article 40 Research and survey activities

During transit passage, foreign ships, including marine scientific research and hydrographic survey ships, may not carry out any research or survey activities without the prior authorization of the States bordering straits.

Ah, thank you for that, fdr. I guess from the J gov reaction that they didn't get prior permission, knowing full well it would not be granted, thus better to make a quick dart in and out.

[tartare]

FWIW - here's a broader perspective on the Solomons issue.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/remember-guadalcanal-us-congress-fears-over-china-s-presence-in-sacred-place-20220428-p5agr9.html
It will be very interesting to see if lessons have been learned about the South China Sea salami slicing/frog boiling strategies used by the PRC...

[Asturias56]

"Well, it was the middle of the night, and only 6 km offshore, and not an international waterway, and they have been caught l@ser mapping the sea floor around there before,"

remember that sub of Sweden years back................ but of of course there are dozens of published accounts of western SSN's "mapping the seabed" well inside other people's territorial waters

[tartare]

An interesting story has surfaced over here (no pun intended).
From the ABC - which will be geoblocked for you lot up in Pomgolia and in the Excited States.

One of China's largest defence and aerospace companies promised to upgrade almost three dozen airstrips in Solomon Islands as part of an ambitious plan to transform the Pacific Islands country into an "aeronautical hub" for the region.
In return, the Solomon Islands government said it would purchase six aircraft from AVIC Commercial Aircraft, a subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned defence behemoth which has built small and medium-sized aeroplanes to be sold to developing countries.
The proposed exchange was laid out two-and-a-half years ago in a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which has been obtained by the ABC.

So, I wonder what the runway length and PCN number of those upgraded airstrips would have been...?!!!
The actual document itself is on the ABC website - thank you Australian Intelligence Agencies.
The speculation is COVID scuttled this from going ahead.
Sneaky Chinese.
Anyone would think there's an election going on in Australia at the moment...

[fdr]

An interesting story has surfaced over here (no pun intended).
From the ABC - which will be geoblocked for you lot up in Pomgolia and in the Excited States.

One of China's largest defence and aerospace companies promised to upgrade almost three dozen airstrips in Solomon Islands as part of an ambitious plan to transform the Pacific Islands country into an "aeronautical hub" for the region.
In return, the Solomon Islands government said it would purchase six aircraft from AVIC Commercial Aircraft, a subsidiary of the Chinese state-owned defence behemoth which has built small and medium-sized aeroplanes to be sold to developing countries.
The proposed exchange was laid out two-and-a-half years ago in a memorandum of understanding (MOU), which has been obtained by the ABC.

So, I wonder what the runway length and PCN number of those upgraded airstrips would have been...?!!!
The actual document itself is on the ABC website - thank you Australian Intelligence Agencies.
The speculation is COVID scuttled this from going ahead.
Sneaky Chinese.
Anyone would think there's an election going on in Australia at the moment...

3 dozen airports, Solomons? Wow, aren't drugs illegal in China?

Only if they bring really big bulldozers, or build up more artificial islands as they did in the SCS.

In the Solomon FIR there are 2 jet capable airports of any use. Of all of the others, about a dozen can take a king air, the rest are good for helicopters. Floatplanes work but the water I can be pretty choppy. Perhaps AVIC are planning to send a bunch of AN-2 clones.

ICAO IATA Location
AGGH (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGH) HIR (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=HIR) Honiara [Honiara Intl (Henderson Intl)], Guadalcanal, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/HIR)
AGGI (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGI) MBU (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=MBU) Mbambanakira [Mbambanakira Airport (Babanakira Airfield)], Guadalcanal, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/MBU) (23 nm / 43 km SW)
AGGJ (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGJ) AVU (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AVU) Avu Avu [Haimaru Airport], Guadalcanal, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/AVU) (34 nm / 62 km SE)
AGGU (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGU) RUS (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=RUS) Marau [Paruru Airport], Guadalcanal, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/RUS) (52 nm / 97 km SE)
AGGY (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGY) XYA (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=XYA) Yandina [Yandina Airport], Central, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/XYA) (54 nm / 99 km W)
AGAF (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGAF) AFT (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AFT) Afutara [Afutara Airport], Malaita Island, Malaita, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/AFT) (55 nm / 102 km E)
AGGA (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGA) AKS (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AKS) Auki [Auki Gwaunaru'u Airport], Malaita Island, Malaita, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/AKS) (57 nm / 106 km NE)
AGAT (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGAT) ATD (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=ATD) Atoifi [Uru Harbour Airport], Malaita Island, Malaita, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/ATD) (66 nm / 122 km NE)
AGOB (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGOB) MHM (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=MHM) Malaita [Manaoba Island Baenalu Airport (Mana'oba)], Manaoba Island, Malaita, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/MHM) (79 nm / 147 km NE)
AGGP (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGP) PRS (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=PRS) Parasi [Marau Sound Airport], Marau Sound Island, Guadalcanal, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/PRS) (82 nm / 152 km E)
AGGF (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGF) FRE (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=FRE) Fera Island [Fera Airport (Fera/Maringe Airport)], Santa Isabel Islands, Isabel, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/FRE) (84 nm / 155 km N)
AGJO (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGJO) JJA (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=JJA) Jajao [Jajao Airport], Santa Isabel Island, Isabel, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/JJA) (86 nm / 160 km NW)
AGGB (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGB) BNY (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BNY) Anua , Bellona Island, Rennell and Bellona, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/BNY) [b](113 nm / 209 km S)
AGAR (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGAR) RNA (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=RNA) Arona [Ulawa Airport (Arona Airport)], Ulawa Island, Malaita, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/RNA) (117 nm / 216 km E)
AGOK (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGOK) GTA (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=GTA) Gatokae [Gatokae Airport], Nggatokae Island, Western, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/GTA) (118 nm / 218 km W)
AGGK (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGK) IRA (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=IRA) Kirakira [Ngorangora], Makira Island, Makira-Ulawa, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/IRA) (125 nm / 232 km SE)
AGGR (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGR) RNL (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=RNL) Tingoa [Rennell/Tingoa Airport], Rennell Island, Rennell and Bellona, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/RNL) (126 nm / 233 km S)
AGBT (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGBT) BPF (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=BPF) Batuna , Vangunu Island, Western, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/BPF) [b](126 nm / 233 km NW)
AGGV (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGV) VAO (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=VAO) Suavanao [Suavanao Airport], Santa Isabel Island, Isabel, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/VAO) (135 nm / 251 km NW)
AGGS (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=AGGS) EGM (http://www.gcmap.com/mapui?P=EGM) Seghe (Sege) [Seghe Airport], New Georgia Island, Western, SB (http://www.gcmap.com/airport/EGM) (139 nm / 257 km W)


etc...

[ORAC]

Not only practicing hitting ships in harbour with ballistic missiles - but hitting them midship.

https://news.usni.org/2022/05/11/great-wall-of-naval-targets-discovered-in-chinese-desert

Great Wall of Naval Targets Discovered in Chinese Desert


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1080/image_39069dd828da3e9773f2b2856741cba9c11abf9c.jpeg

[Asturias56]

Given all the heat generated by the Solomon's offer I was rather amazed to read that the Chinese only have ONE naval base outside of China - in Djibouti.

Whereas the USA,& the UK have................ a few more

[Widger]

Given all the heat generated by the Solomon's offer I was rather amazed to read that the Chinese only have ONE naval base outside of China - in Djibouti.

Which is right next to a NATO base and fuelling jetty protected by the French Foreign Legion. Its a significant move as part of their 'Belt and Road' initiative. Djibouti is a beautiful country that has been riven by civil war for many years and Djibouti City was the only part of the country that was relatively peaceful due to the presence of the French. The danger here is that the Chinese will pump investment into the country and NATO will fall out of favour and be forced out, thereby losing a strategic port in the Middle East.

Djibouti was also the main port for delivery of grain during the Ethiopian famine back in the 80s. In the early 90's, that grain was still stacked up in the port, thousands and thousands of tons of it, with 'A gift from Live Aid' written on the sack. A really depressing sight.

[India Four Two]

Perhaps the Sino - Vietnamese war (1979) can give some insights, …

A few years ago I toured the northern part of Vietnam, adjacent to the Chinese border. One of the outcomes of the 1979 war is a network of the best maintained roads I’ve seen in Vietnam, built at vast expense in very rugged terrain, to allow quick military mobilization to the border area.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1170x748/11d808f5_cd2b_4ef7_94a1_8b3953032493_0d395d2518a24b0b0d0fca8 d0638f52ae3f690e9.jpeg

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1155x843/a5b990b4_0d81_46ae_b9f6_2aae465ccb8c_a9efdf80ec1900f602134bf a5a24a311c5534449.jpeg

[Asturias56]

There are a number of naval bases in Djibouti- as far as I can see the Chinese built the base as part of their efforts to join the multi-nation effort against piracy. They have the biggest need to stop piracy of any country given their role in so many supply chains. I doubt the Govt of Djibouti ever plans to "retire" to Beijing - much more likely to the outskirts of Nice

The Belt & Road initiative is a clear plan to extend influence but if the west takes an interest in some of these places they'll not fall under Chinese control.

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2022/05/16/satellite-photos-show-possible-new-chinese-nuclear-submarine-able-to-launch-cruise-missiles/

Satellite photo shows possible new Chinese nuclear submarine able to launch cruise missiles

MELBOURNE, Australia — A submarine seen in a satellite photo of a Chinese shipyard shows what could be a new class or subtype of a nuclear-powered attack sub with a new stealthy propulsion system and launch tubes for cruise missiles.….

The submarine has two distinct patches of green coloring on its hull immediately behind its conning tower, while a cruciform rudder arrangement and a possible shrouded propulsion system are seen.

A naval expert told Defense News he has “moderately high confidence” the submarine includes a row of vertical launch system cells for submarine-launched missiles and a shroud for pump-jet propulsion….

If the rectangular section on the submarine, as seen in the satellite photo, is indeed a set of VLS cells, it would be in line with a 2021 Pentagon report on China’s military power (https://www.defensenews.com/news/pentagon-congress/2021/11/03/pentagon-chinese-nuke-force-growing-faster-than-predicted/) that the country was likely building “the Type 093B guided-missile nuclear attack submarine.”

The sighting of the new submarine comes after a model of a nuclear-powered attack submarine bearing the nameplate of China State Shipbuilding Corporation Limited and fitted with VLS technology as well as pump-jet propulsion appeared online…..

The model, which features 18 VLS cells in three rows of six missile tubes behind the boat’s conning tower, was posted on Chinese social media without the shipyard’s plaque in early May. Some speculated this was a development of the Type 093 class tentatively named Type 093B.

The submarine seen in the latest satellite image of Huludao appears to measure up closely to the Type 093′s 110-meter length, indicating it is likely a development of the Type 093 rather than an altogether new class….

[Lonewolf_50]

The war of words is getting a bit sharper.
President Biden's remarks about defending Taiwan have received a riposte.
"Don't stand in the way of 1.4 billion Chinese" (Chinese foreign ministry spokesman). (https://www.barrons.com/news/biden-warned-not-to-stand-in-the-way-of-1-4-billion-chinese-on-taiwan-01653323421?refsec=topics_afp-news)
"Do not stand in the way of 1.4 billion Chinese people", foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin tells reporters. Beijing says it is ready to defend its national interests over Taiwan, in a rebuke to President Joe Biden's vow to protect the island from any invasion by China.

[GeeRam]

Chinese AF paying silly games with a RAAF P-8.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-61696973

[Lonewolf_50]

They ran into a US P-3 some years back. I guess they like to play Chicken.

[Ascend Charlie]

Totally hypocritical, if we did that to one of theirs they would be screaming "Act of war!"

[fdr]

They ran into a US P-3 some years back. I guess they like to play Chicken.

And complained that their ace pilot of the J-8 was taken down and died by the perfidious aggressive EP-3E

[Buster Hyman]

Totally hypocritical, if we did that to one of theirs they would be screaming "Act of war!"
They're poking a Bear, any Bear, & dying for an excuse to kick things off.

[Load Toad]

Totally hypocritical, if we did that to one of theirs they would be screaming "Act of war!"

XitJumping wants a war - and he's trying his best to start one with anybody.

[etudiant]

XitJumping wants a war - and he's trying his best to start one with anybody.

Disagree entirely, Xi wants to show ongoing progress in China's emergence as the premier nation..
So pushing the envelope around the South Pacific is ideal, plus it ties in nicely with the ongoing efforts to bring the Pacific island nations into Beijing's sphere.
The Chinese wrote the book on warfare, but noted that it was best to win without fighting.

[tartare]

Another slice of salami:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-to-begin-secret-construction-of-pla-naval-facility-in-cambodia-this-week-western-officials-say-20220607-p5arm8.html

[West Coast]

Couple of articles in the Economist this week about the need for Taiwan to adopt the strategy promulgated there about 15 years ago of a lot more "small" weapons (as in Ukraine) and fewer big ticket items from the USA

That’s the advice given to them by the US military.

[Asturias56]

But SO's just LOVE the big ticket items.............

[Lonewolf_50]

Another slice of salami:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-to-begin-secret-construction-of-pla-naval-facility-in-cambodia-this-week-western-officials-say-20220607-p5arm8.html
The Chinese play the long game. I wonder how Viet Nam feels about this. Probably not good.

[Lookleft]

So do the Vietnamese. They also have the runs on the board when it comes to fighting the Chinese. When well led they are formidable.

[Gnadenburg]

In the maritime & air domain over the SCS, the Vietnamese aren’t keeping up with the CCP. Perhaps their half dozen Russian submarines useful though not much else. Last skirmish with a China was in the SCS and the Vietnamese came off second place : Johnson South Reef Skirmish

[Lonewolf_50]

While a grain or two of sea salt is needed, there's an interesting article on Covert Shores from Naval News about the Zumwalt Class DDG and the proposed installation of hypersonic missiles.
(Obviously not a current capability, there's currently a 155mm gun mount there).
https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/u-s-navys-hypersonic-missile-will-give-zumwalt-class-new-capability/

What got my interest was not the "hypersonic ballistic missiles" bit, vis a vis US and China getting their arms race on, but the location of the VLS launchers.
They are {depicted} in banks along the sides, and the rear ones are adjacent to the Flight Deck!
https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1534468736614268929?s=20&t=e0-ki1aQbuCVqt3QHrpz_Q

Click on the picture and expand it. There might be a need for a FOD walkdown after a missile launch. :eek:
Pro Tip for the future COs of the Zumwalt class DD's: Don't launch those when your helicopter is turning up or shutting down.

[West Coast]

But SO's just LOVE the big ticket items.............

Just the opposite. There’s a difference between the military and the defense contractors.

[etudiant]

The US Navy is still trying to decide what to do with these three ships, as the main gun armament was too expensive to shoot.
Any redo will cost additional billions, but the hull is apparently quite successful, so there is talk of using it for the successor to the DDG 963 class.

[Lonewolf_50]

The US Navy is still trying to decide what to do with these three ships, as the main gun armament was too expensive to shoot. EDIT: correction, it looks like they are going to remove the guns. (face palm)
Any redo will cost additional billions, but the hull is apparently quite successful, so there is talk of using it for the successor to the DDG 963 class.
The Arleigh Burke class DDG has already replace the Spruance class. There were 30 Spruance class destroyers. (I served in a few of them). There are 3 Zumwalt class DDGs.
Are you, perchance, referring to the four Sprucans that were reclassified as the Kidd class , the ones that had Surface to Air missile launchers? (Kidd, Scott, Callaghan, Chandler) They now serve in the Navy of Taiwan.

[etudiant]

EDIT: correction, it looks like they are going to remove the guns. (face palm)

The Arleigh Burke class DDG has already replace the Spruance class. There were 30 Spruance class destroyers. (I served in a few of them). There are 3 Zumwalt class DDGs.
Are you, perchance, referring to the four Sprucans that I';were reclassified as the Kidd class , the ones that had Surface to Air missile launchers? (Kidd, Scott, Callaghan, Chandler) They now serve in the Navy of Taiwan.
Was not the Burke hull the same as the Spruances? I'd thought that they just stuffed in everything they could. That is why the Zumwalt hull looks so appealing, it has a lot more growth potential.

[Lonewolf_50]

Was not the Burke hull the same as the Spruances?
No, but the CG-47 Ticonderoga class were. (I served in a few of those as well).
Burke was a 'clean sheet' design, and it included lessons learned (more steel in the superstructure) from the Falklands War, also has CIC in a more protected part of the ship. (Spru Cans and Ticos have a CIC a bit higher above the main deck). I'd thought that they just stuffed in everything they could. That is why the Zumwalt hull looks so appealing, it has a lot more growth potential. Yeah, that was the impression that I got as that program stumbled through its various hurdles.
Someone in Congress observed that the Zumwalt class was an example of what's wrong with our acquisition process. I found it hard to disagree with that assessment.

[Lonewolf_50]

An extended article about 'drone swarms' thanks to a FOIA request being fulfilled. (It's The Drive, but they have based it on the documents furnished by the USN).
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/drone-swarms-that-harassed-navy-ships-demystified-in-new-documents

Drone warfare has been a topic of much study by the USN for well over a decade. I'd expect it to feature heavily in anything that crops up in the South China Sea.

[Lonewolf_50]

Interesting statement from China recently.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FU5GdzrX0AMdOF7?format=png&name=medium

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1535242009425879040?s=20&t=ptphGcvPO1dWtHL5uGIv9w

[Asturias56]

I think that's always been their position - actual Independence is an absolute red line for Beijing

[jolihokistix]

No need to declare anything as they’ve always been independent. China is daring them to do something that is not even on the agenda.

Hope no Taiwanese politician falls for this tempting but meaningless false-flag bait.

[Load Toad]

I think that's always been their position - actual Independence is an absolute red line for Beijing
That's not the case though
The CCP's Position on Taiwan is not consistent (https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/when-the-ccp-thought-taiwan-should-be-independent/)


And an important point here - what do the Taiwanese people want?

[Asturias56]

The CCP were in a different position in 1943 to 1933 - they reckoned they Japanese were definitely going to lose and they were definitely going to win..On the rights of the Taiwanese people to self determination there are many cases of people gaining independence (Bangladesh, Ireland, USA) and many were they have failed (Confederated States, the Boers, Tamil Tigers). There are no accepted rules.

[Lyneham Lad]

'Interesting' development... (article in the lunchtime edition of The Times).

China sets up US conflict by laying claim to Taiwan Strait (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/94ee9b4e-ebbd-11ec-8821-d2e916a7eab3?shareToken=376379400fb833844516013f97ac6ab1)

[Lonewolf_50]

FoN ops just got a little more dicey. I am reminded of the never ending scraps between Turkey and Greece in re international waters in the eastern Aegean, based on which rock is claimed by whom.

[tartare]

Looking forward to the first carrier transit through the Strait and B-52 overflight which is probably being planned as we speak!
The military equivalent of a raised finger...

[Lonewolf_50]

Looking forward to the first carrier transit through the Strait and B-52 overflight which is probably being planned as we speak!
The military equivalent of a raised finger... I suspect that the next FoN ops will get extra helpings of EW support. Not sure why Buffs would be involved.

[tartare]

I suspect that the next FoN ops will get extra helpings of EW support. Not sure why Buffs would be involved.

An assumption based on previous activities:
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-sends-b-52-bombers-ripping-through-south-china-sea-twice-in-a-week-2018-9
Either Buff or Bone seems to be the aerial symbol of choice.

[Lonewolf_50]

I may be wholly biased, but I think the Bone is a nicer looking aircraft. If you are gonna swagger, swagger with style. :)

[tartare]

True... it is an impressive piece of kit.
That said the B-52 says big, bad and scary like few other aircraft.
The statement by China bodes ill for the RAAF and RAN I reckon.
They'll think twice about arguing with the `states on the water or in the air - but won't hesitate to bully little Australia.
The next incident will be more than chaff.
All it'll take is another hot-headed Chinese fast jet pilot - and we'll have a Hainan type mid-air collision and forced landing type scenario again - or worse.

[ruprecht]

All it'll take is another hot-headed Chinese fast jet pilot - and we'll have a Hainan type mid-air collision and forced landing type scenario again - or worse.

It doesn’t say much for the Chinese military if their fast jet pilots can’t avoid what is essentially a 4-engined airliner.

[Gnadenburg]

Despite the PLA desperately trying to change their training culture to create more autonomous and creative combat pilots in the last decade, the aggressive hassling of Western ferret flights would be calculated and ordered from well above.

I agree with Tartare. It seems only a matter of time before a shoot down. Plenty of history in the early days of PLA shooting down airliners, ferret flights and stray US combat aircraft during the Vietnam war

[jolihokistix]

Gung Hō by name and gung-ho by nature?

[Asturias56]

"That said the B-52 says big, bad and scary like few other aircraft."

its also one of the few known to "the man in the street" across the world. Send a B1 or B2 and people just think "another aeroplane"

Send a B-52 and the world thinks Dr. Strangelove, Vietnam, Iraq

Symbolic but symbols are what you want when people start playing up thinking they might get away with things

[West Coast]

The B1 no longer has a nuclear role, the Chinese know that. Now the B52 on the other hand does, the Chinese know that as well. Lose a couple of buildings vs lose a city is the difference in aircraft and in messaging.

[jolihokistix]

In that context it’s not just Russia using nuclear threats.

China does it too, and DPRK has just about joined the club.

[jolihokistix]

Two more have joined the five. Seven Russian navy ships spotted today off the north east coast of Japan. More to join in.

Quote: “Russia's Defense Ministry announced that it will conduct the large-scale military exercises in the Pacific from June 3, with around 40 Pacific Fleet vessels and others taking part.”
https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2022061000600/amp/#
Better than average chance that the Chinese will join in, I wager.

[Asturias56]

Mid - summer - good to get out on the water......................

[jolihokistix]

https://japantoday.com/category/world/china-launches-first-indigenous-aircraft-carrier

Impressive work.

quote: “Equipped with the latest weaponry and aircraft-launch technology, the Type 003 ship’s capabilities are thought to rival those of Western carriers, as Beijing seeks to turn its navy, already the world’s largest, into a multi-carrier force.”

[Lonewolf_50]

A few points from joli's linked article.
The Type 003 employs a catapult launch, which experts had said appears to be an electromagnetic-type system like one originally developed by the U.S. Navy. China's official Xinhua News Agency confirmed the Fujian employed the electromagnetic system in a report on Friday's launch. Such a system puts less stress on the aircraft than older steam-type catapult launch systems, and the use of a catapult means that the ship will be able to launch a broader variety of aircraft, which is necessary for China to be able to project naval power at a greater range, Rahmat said.“These catapults allow aircraft deployed to carry a more extensive load of weapons in addition to external fuel tanks,” Rahmat said.

“Once it is fully operational, the PLAN’s third carrier would also be able to deploy a more complete suite of aircraft associated with carrier strike group operations including carrier onboard delivery transport and airborne early warning and control airframes, such as the KJ-600.”
China’s People's Liberation Army Navy, or PLAN, has been modernizing for more than a decade to become more of a “blue water” force — one capable of operating globally rather than being restricted to remaining closer to the Chinese mainland. I remember the long term effort Admiral Gorshkov led in the Soviet Union to make the Soviet fleet a blue water navy.
China is doing the same thing, on a similar time frame. An advantage that they have is that they have the industrial base and the economy to back it up.
How soon will they put out a film like Top Gun, one wonders? :p
The link I first saw for this news item is here (https://www.npr.org/2022/06/17/1105786322/chinas-upgrades-its-naval-force-with-its-first-indigenous-aircraft-carrier).

[ORAC]

It seems they already did, unfortunately….

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/chinas-version-top-gun-may-be-most-boring-military-film-ever-167797

[Lonewolf_50]

It seems they already did, unfortunately….
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/reboot/chinas-version-top-gun-may-be-most-boring-military-film-ever-167797
It's boring because it's about Air Force pilots. Once they get Navy pilots into a film, it will be exciting! :ok::}
(Hat, Coat, Exit!)

[SpazSinbad]

China Launches First Aircraft Carrier Which Rivals U.S. Navy’s - Naval News (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/06/china-launches-first-aircraft-carrier-which-rivals-u-s-navys/) 17 Jun 2022 China-Type-003-Fujian.jpg (1600×1057) (navalnews.com) (https://www.navalnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/06/China-Type-003-Fujian.jpg)
https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1648x1020/plan_type_003_carrier_fujian_launch_17_jun_2022_67379d1d57a3 749536ef79628e1427b818f2d38f.jpg

[Big Pistons Forever]

https://japantoday.com/category/world/china-launches-first-indigenous-aircraft-carrier

Impressive work.

quote: “Equipped with the latest weaponry and aircraft-launch technology, the Type 003 ship’s capabilities are thought to rival those of Western carriers, as Beijing seeks to turn its navy, already the world’s largest, into a multi-carrier force.”

There is a lot more to the successful projection of force than the kit. Effective command and control, well trained and effective personnel, integrated logistics, and adaptive doctrine are what makes the spiffy ships lethal.

I think the Chinese Armed Forces are exactly where the Russian armed forces is today in the Ukraine. Senior leadership chosen for political fealty over military competence, operational doctrine that is rigid and not adaptable to actual battlefield conditions, a lack of the critical senior NCO cadre, ineffective joint arms capability and capacity, lack of logistical support, and finally the same kabuki theatre set piece exercises that supposedly demonstrate “capability”.

Just like the West has consistently over estimated the Soviet military capability during the Cold War to justify the massive in the Military Industrial complex, I see the same dynamic developing now over our response to the Chinese Military.

[etudiant]

There is a lot more to the successful projection of force than the kit. Effective command and control, well trained and effective personnel, integrated logistics, and adaptive doctrine are what makes the spiffy ships lethal.

I think the Chinese Armed Forces are exactly where the Russian armed forces is today in the Ukraine. Senior leadership chosen for political fealty over military competence, operational doctrine that is rigid and not adaptable to actual battlefield conditions, a lack of the critical senior NCO cadre, ineffective joint arms capability and capacity, lack of logistical support, and finally the same kabuki theatre set piece exercises that supposedly demonstrate “capability”.

Just like the West has consistently over estimated the Soviet military capability during the Cold War to justify the massive in the Military Industrial complex, I see the same dynamic developing now over our response to the Chinese Military.

The Chinese military are working to ensure control of the South China sea and the Asian high country watersheds. For those tasks, they are performing quite well, by all appearances.
Force projection seems a lower priority for China, they project money much more effectively than we project force.

[Asturias56]

One "problem" the Chinese military have is that they haven't been fighting anyone for years.

All armed forces become full of older, more cautious, yes men in such conditions

When a serious war breaks out it's normally a disaster for the first part - then whole bunch of SO's are removed and things start to improve

[etudiant]

One "problem" the Chinese military have is that they haven't been fighting anyone for years.

All armed forces become full of older, more cautious, yes men in such conditions

When a serious war breaks out it's normally a disaster for the first part - then whole bunch of SO's are removed and things start to improve

That is a perceptive comment. Plus of course winning without fighting is textbook Chinese strategy
This definitely applies to the Chinese force projection methodology, they have a well oiled methodology, infrastructure on credit with political benefits and consequences.
I'd also think that the talents that make an effective military commander might be considered dangerous from the CCP's perspective.

[Big Pistons Forever]

A very interesting article that has relevance for both the US and China. Russia is living the issue and not doing so well it seems. Autocracy's are generally not good at learning from their mistakes.

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/11/general-failure/309148/

[dead_pan]

One "problem" the Chinese military have is that they haven't been fighting anyone for years.

All armed forces become full of older, more cautious, yes men in such conditions

When a serious war breaks out it's normally a disaster for the first part - then whole bunch of SO's are removed and things start to improve

Yup, they, like Russia, have inexorably morphed into a parade army - lots of bemedalled old timers, troops who can march well over a short distance, plus some shiny new crowd-pleasing kit attempting to gloss over the reality of Cold War era gear making up the bulk of the numbers.

Regarding 'meatware', generally I'm quietly impressed whenever I've met NCOs from western militaries. I wonder if I'd feel the same about their Chinese counterparts? I'm not so sure. The thing is, I wonder how many true believers there are amongst their number, and how many actually quite like western culture etc and don't really see it as that much of a threat? These things all count when it comes to the crunch.

[Asturias56]

I think all Chinese have been brought up over the last 150 years to believe that the "West" is only intent on plundering them and doing them down.

I believe they are intensely, even insanely, patriotic - think Japan 1940 here - who think that any criticism (or anything other than total adulation) is a sign of a potential enemy. On the other hand I don't see many signs that they have a "mission" to take over the whole world and run it themselves - as Chou En Lai said years ago "Invade India? Another 800 million people? Are you mad???".

These attitudes are not a great basis for fighting a war TBH - unfortunately they may well cause a war - one that no side really needs or wants.

[Asturias56]

Interesting article in this weeks Economist

The Chinese spokesman was responding to a report by Bloomberg, a news agency, that Chinese military officers, during meetings in recent months with American counterparts, have repeatedly asserted that there are no international waters there. It said this had caused concern among senior American officials.

At least in public, China’s argument does not appear to have changed. It does not explicitly say that all waters in the strait are its sovereign territory. The words “sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction” refer to the various types of control to which it claims a right in different parts of the strait, which varies in width from 70 to 220 nautical miles. China gives these areas the same names, and specifies their width, as other countries do under the un
Convention on the Law of the Sea, or unclos (which China has ratified and America has not). It counts the area between its “territorial baseline” and a parallel line 12 nautical miles seaward as sovereign territory (see map). It claims the next 12 nautical miles beyond that as a “contiguous zone” where it has broad law-enforcement rights. That zone, and a band of sea beyond that, form the country’s “exclusive economic zone”, or eez. If there were space (which there is not in the Taiwan Strait), this could stretch to 200 nautical miles from the baseline. Like most other countries, America treats eezs as the high seas, accepting only a few restrictions such as
on rights to fishing and the extraction of minerals. China has a more sweeping view of its rights. It objects to any intelligence-gathering or exercises by military vessels or aircraft in its eez. It also demands
that foreign military vessels passing through the first 12-nautical-mile band (exercising “innocent passage”, as unclos calls it) get permission first. America refuses to comply.

China’s public statements often use language that blurs the distinction between sovereign waters and the eez. That may be intentional. It would clearly like others to believe it can veto any military passage
through the strait.

[Lonewolf_50]

We may see some new capabilities in the Seventh Fleet soon. The first Flight III Arleigh Burke Class DDG (Lucas) should be up and running next year. They have the AN/SPY-6 radar (my, how far we've come since the SPY 1 days) which I've been doing some looking into in Unclassified sources.
It requires more power but it has some impressive capabilities, to include an assessed (maybe in a future patch?) capacity for jamming. I remember the SPY-1 on the Ticonderoga CG's had the ability to do a sort of 'burn through jamming' capability (the idea being to be able to 'see' through a deliberate jam on one threat axis (Badgers/Bears, et al with ASM raids being the expected threat).
That was almost 40 years ago.
The ten pound brains have apparently been hard at it in improving what a phased array can do.
How does this influence aviation? Well, what I suspect is that if you get into the jamming cone, strange things may happen. (Heck, in the SPY-1 days, if the aft array was in high power our nav system often dropped off line as we approached to land, and our digital watches would go to zero!).

[Asturias56]

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/648x832/taiwan_strait_jpg_9eab4816c8e692f52d365232043dca4d9a924709.j pg

[Lonewolf_50]

The Economist's Map That's all well and good if both nations recognize each others sovereignty, which China (PRoC) does not as regards Taiwan (RoC).

[Asturias56]

No - even if Taiwan WAS part of China proper then the map shows you can still sail down the Strait

[Lonewolf_50]

Only if the Chinese care about ILOS, which their "9 dash map" (SCS) from back in Kuomintang days, which CCP has seen fit to now assert as their baseline indicates that they may not.

[etudiant]

Only if the Chinese care about ILOS, which their "9 dash map" (SCS) from back in Kuomintang days, which CCP has seen fit to now assert as their baseline indicates that they may not.

The Chinese indicate displeasure by imposing extra costs on the offenders, So if they want to ensure defacto recognition of their stance, simply add to the port charges of any offending party.
I guarantee shipping companies will comply with the required notifications and requests for permission. That lays the groundwork for future transit restrictions.

[kiwi grey]

Only if the Chinese care about ILOS, which their "9 dash map" (SCS) from back in Kuomintang days, which CCP has seen fit to now assert as their baseline indicates that they may not.
This
The Chinese government says that everything inside the"nine dash line" is Chinese sovereign territory. From their point of view, that's the end of the argument.
Now, they are getting to the stage where they can enforce their position. "Who cares about ILOS? Not us!"

[fdr]

under the veneer of unity and expanding force structure and capability there are some impediments to "Crouching Draggin'..." bashing up the locals in the SCS to pursue the 9-dash line "land grab".

Russia is not alone in having established a cancerous system of corruption in its military.



Klepocracy 2.0

[T28B]

NotAsAMod:
Does the parallel structure of "president for life" between Russia (Putin) and China (Xi) inform the military corruption aspect, or is that coincidence?

[fdr]

NotAsAMod:
Does the parallel structure of "president for life" between Russia (Putin) and China (Xi) inform the military corruption aspect, or is that coincidence?

That is an interesting question. Russia has always had a corruption issue at the top of the committee, an argument could be made that it has been pervasive since Tzarist times. Soviet military corruption was a topic of interest back in the early 90s. [1] Soviet corruption in the military during WW2 would seem to be more opportunistic than the hierarchical form that exists today, more of the stealing of radios, etc [2], rather than the falsification of stores expenditures that is prevalent in Russia and the PLA, PLAN, and PLAF today. When a soldier can spend 3.5 million in a bribe to get a promotion, there may be a problem When generals have accumulated over 3.2 Billion in personal wealth, when their young daughters own mansions, not from inherited wealth, that came from somewhere, and it has left a hole.

Xi is presented as an anti-corruption leader, one at odds with the extensive senior officer corps that is involved in corrupt practices, yet his family and Xi have managed to salt away vast fortunes as well. The actions of prior premiers of China made it almost inevitable that corruption would become widespread in the military when the PLA was obliged to hold cake stalls for their missiles, (40% of funding had to be self-sourced... ) which led to opportunity.

Authoritarian govts do appear to lend themselves to corrupt practices, however, it appears that they also preclude some avenues of corruption that occur in more liberal societies [3]. What seems to arise is corruption within components of the govt that have a steep power gradient, like the military.






[1] Vallance, J., (2007). Corruption and Reform in the Soviet Military, J. Slavic Military studies. 7(4), 703-724
[2] Merridale, C. (2006). Culture, Ideology and Combat in the Red Army, 1939-45. Journal of Contemporary History, 41(2), 305–324. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30036388
[3] Zaloznaya, M. (2015). Does Authoritarianism Breed Corruption? Reconsidering the Relationship Between Authoritarian Governance and Corrupt Exchanges in Bureaucracies. Law & Social Inquiry, 40(2), 345-376. doi:10.1111/lsi.12076

[Big Pistons Forever]

NotAsAMod:
Does the parallel structure of "president for life" between Russia (Putin) and China (Xi) inform the military corruption aspect, or is that coincidence?

As the old saying goes power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.

I think the PLA capabilities are is being vastly overrated. The culture and therefore the effectiveness of the military's starts at the top. There seem little doubt that virtually all of the PLA senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over military competence and see the job as a states sanctioned license to accumulate vast wealth. This is not the foundation of an effective fighting force.

[etudiant]

As the old saying goes power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely.

I think the PLA capabilities are is being vastly overrated. The culture and therefore the effectiveness of the military's starts at the top. There seem little doubt that virtually all of the PLA senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over military competence and see the job as a states sanctioned license to accumulate vast wealth. This is not the foundation of an effective fighting force.

Political loyalty does not preclude military competence, plus the effectiveness of the PLA should be measured against the challenges it faces.
As China gradually builds bases all through the South China Sea and builds its own carrier strike force, it greatly eases the PLA's job of defending China's approaches.
Meanwhile, it is uncertain whether the US military culture can survive a decade of 'woke' leadership. Read 'A few bad men'.(.https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/A-Few-Bad-Men/Fred-Galvin-USMC-(Ret-)/9781637584132)

[Asturias56]

"There seem little doubt that virtually all of the PLA senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over military competence "

Outside of a democracy that's a wise, even a VERY wise, move

[rattman]

"There seem little doubt that virtually all of the PLA senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over military competence "

Outside of a democracy that's a wise, even a VERY wise, move

But in china not chosen for loyalty to XI, still a lot of questions as to if XI has any control of the military

[Asturias56]

Agreed - lines off authority at the the top of the tree in China have always been very opaque

[etudiant]

Agreed - lines off authority at the the top of the tree in China have always been very opaque

Afaik, Deng retained his position as Chair of the Standing Committee on Military Affairs, which controls the PLA, even after he stepped down as Party Chair.
Xi now holds that post. Think it would be an impressive achievement to displace him.
That is fully in line with the Chinese historical experience, the "Mandate of Heaven' is withdrawn only when the current holder really flubs.
Xi came close to that in the early days of Covid and would surely be at risk if the Chinese real estate bubble popped.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times.

China angers Tokyo by sending warship close to disputed Senkaku Islands (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/16d34cd4-fb74-11ec-ab20-2fd534744dd7?shareToken=7d4742bcf50dc97cf54da32e97d09cd4)

Snippets:-
Japan has lodged a protest with Beijing after a frigate from the Chinese navy sailed through waters around a group of disputed islands for the first time in four years. A Russian vessel was also spotted in the area.The ship entered “Japan’s contiguous waters” southwest of the uninhabited Senkaku Islands shortly before 8am today, according to the Japanese defence ministry. Contiguous waters extend 12 nautical miles beyond territorial waters.

A Russian naval ship was also observed near the islands this morning, local media reported, citing defence ministry sources. Russian and Chinese naval vessels have been spotted sailing in formation around Japan, from Hokkaido in the north, near Tokyo and close to Okinawa in the south in recent months, with the two nations apparently stepping up military co-operation.

Russia announced last week that it was seizing control of the Sakhalin-2 energy project, in which Japanese companies hold large stakes. Resource-poor Japan imports large quantities of liquid natural gas (LNG) from Russia and exempted it from the Ukraine-related sanctions. It is unclear what effect the seizure of the project will have on Japan’s energy supplies.

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/07/29/japan-warns-of-aggressor-nation-russia-threats-to-taiwan-in-new-whitepaper/


Japan warns of ‘aggressor nation’ Russia, threats to Taiwan in new whitepaper

[Asturias56]

"Russia announced last week that it was seizing control of the Sakhalin-2 energy project, in which Japanese companies hold large stakes."

To be fair it was because Shell pulled out "After the Russian invasion of Ukraine (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in February 2022, Shell said that it would exit Sakhalin-2 and other ventures in Russia. On 30 June 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin) signed a decree ordering the transfer of the Sakhalin-2 project to a new domestic operator. Foreign investors will be required to apply to retain their existing shares in the new Russian company within a month. The Russian government will then decide whether to allow foreign shareholders to keep their stake. If they are rejected, the government will sell the foreign shareholder’s stake and keep the proceeds in the shareholder’s special account."

[rattman]

State Department jet crossing the pacific atm. Could pelosi be on board ?

https://www.flightradar24.com/SPAR19/2cdb2d95

[Baldeep Inminj]

US State Department confirms today that Speaker Pelosi will visit Taiwan this week - no further details given.

All eyes must be on China. They said there would be severe and consequential actions taken if she set foot on the island.

Will China reneg on their threat with Xi looking for a 3rd term? I doubt it. Worrying times.

[Lonewolf_50]

They said there would be severe and consequential actions taken if she set foot on the island.
Attempts at bullying usually start with bluster, yes.

[GlobalNav]

That is an interesting question. Russia has always had a corruption issue at the top of the committee, an argument could be made that it has been pervasive since Tzarist times. Soviet military corruption was a topic of interest back in the early 90s. [1] Soviet corruption in the military during WW2 would seem to be more opportunistic than the hierarchical form that exists today, more of the stealing of radios, etc [2], rather than the falsification of stores expenditures that is prevalent in Russia and the PLA, PLAN, and PLAF today. When a soldier can spend 3.5 million in a bribe to get a promotion, there may be a problem When generals have accumulated over 3.2 Billion in personal wealth, when their young daughters own mansions, not from inherited wealth, that came from somewhere, and it has left a hole.

Xi is presented as an anti-corruption leader, one at odds with the extensive senior officer corps that is involved in corrupt practices, yet his family and Xi have managed to salt away vast fortunes as well. The actions of prior premiers of China made it almost inevitable that corruption would become widespread in the military when the PLA was obliged to hold cake stalls for their missiles, (40% of funding had to be self-sourced... ) which led to opportunity.

Authoritarian govts do appear to lend themselves to corrupt practices, however, it appears that they also preclude some avenues of corruption that occur in more liberal societies [3]. What seems to arise is corruption within components of the govt that have a steep power gradient, like the military.






[1] Vallance, J., (2007). Corruption and Reform in the Soviet Military, J. Slavic Military studies. 7(4), 703-724
[2] Merridale, C. (2006). Culture, Ideology and Combat in the Red Army, 1939-45. Journal of Contemporary History, 41(2), 305–324. http://www.jstor.org/stable/30036388
[3] Zaloznaya, M. (2015). Does Authoritarianism Breed Corruption? Reconsidering the Relationship Between Authoritarian Governance and Corrupt Exchanges in Bureaucracies. Law & Social Inquiry, 40(2), 345-376. doi:10.1111/lsi.12076

I suspect it boils down to the selective lack of accountability and the “absolute power corrupts absolutely” syndrome.

[GlobalNav]

Attempts at bullying usually start with bluster, yes.

Agreed, but China may respond with some outrageous act with her visit as an excuse. Bullies also commit atrocities when they believe the other person shows responsible restraint. IMHO the US should flatly change its policy regarding Taiwan and unequivocally say we will defend them. Which means of course a lot of work to make that possible.

[etudiant]

Agreed, but China may respond with some outrageous act with her visit as an excuse. Bullies also commit atrocities when they believe the other person shows responsible restraint. IMHO the US should flatly change its policy regarding Taiwan and unequivocally say we will defend them. Which means of course a lot of work to make that possible.

Iirc, the initial communiques dating from the US recognition of the PRC are a masterpiece of wordsmithing, they say there is one China, not saying which was which, and they also say that any alteration in the political arrangements would be peaceful.
That allows plenty of room to combat direct military initiatives, but also allows Beijing to fulminate about the renegade province.
Imho, Beijing erred in crushing the Hong Kong dissidents, as that proved that their claims of 'one country, two systems' were hollow. So I'd expect Taiwan to resist vigorously, they know it is their skin on the line.

[Lonewolf_50]

The Taiwan dollar took a bit of a hit as the news of Pelosi's visit become confirmed.
https://twitter.com/i/events/1554148048699375617?s=20

Interesting side effect, probably temporary

[Asturias56]

"Attempts at bullying usually start with bluster, yes."

and so do many wars I'm afraid.

[nevillestyke]

"There seem little doubt that virtually all of the PLA senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over military competence "

Outside of a democracy that's a wise, even a VERY wise, move
Would PLA senior officers ever need to display any military competence, if they just have enough bodies at their disposal to pile up on any future problem?

[MJ89]

https://www.flightradar24.com/SPAR19/2ce4f83f

heading east then north i guess.
the trackers following this flight are 377k

[ORAC]

Sabre rattling.

Did the Chinese use sabres?

https://twitter.com/bangxiao_/status/1554379088475074561?s=21&t=iVDmkvqtsMyJIo6sbs4_GQ


Latest footage circulating on Chinese social media WeChat shows armoured vehicles on the move in the southern Chinese city of Xiamen, as US Speaker Pelosi is reportedly heading to Taipei.

https://twitter.com/warmatters/status/1554337433776447488?s=21&t=iVDmkvqtsMyJIo6sbs4_GQ


https://twitter.com/3funeshuya/status/1554336435800805376?s=21&t=iVDmkvqtsMyJIo6sbs4_GQ

[MJ89]

https://www.reuters.com/world/kremlin-warns-us-over-provocative-pelosi-visit-taiwan-2022-08-02/

[ORAC]

Nancy Pelosi’s plane has landed in Taipei.

Now let’s see what happens….

An article with great background on what happened during previous such incidents.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-29/pelosi-s-taiwan-trip-would-anger-china-and-may-trigger-trump-prophecy

The Four Mysteries of Pelosi’s Troublesome Taiwan Trip

[Less Hair]

Can China have seriously expected that the US bows to any threats? They sort of manoeuvred themselves into this situation.
China would pay a high price as well if this escalates.

[T28B]

NotAsAMod
There is an article describing some interesting parallels with previous tension-filled episodes between U.S. and China.
Niall Ferguson (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-29/pelosi-s-taiwan-trip-would-anger-china-and-may-trigger-trump-prophecy). Full analysis in the Spoiler, it's a long article, or click on the link.
The Four Mysteries of Pelosi’s Troublesome Taiwan Trip
An excerpt.
...thanks to the world-leading position of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — which makes 92% of the advanced semiconductors necessary for every smartphone, laptop and ballistic missile in the world — a war for Taiwan would devastate the world economy, including the US technology sector, as Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt pointed out last month. According to estimates by the RAND Corporation, a one-year war between the US and China would cut U.S. gross domestic product by 5% to 10%. Even this administration would have to acknowledge that as a recession.
Tensions over the island haven’t been this high since 1996, and a visit by the House speaker could push China to the brink.
“Taiwan will be next. You won’t have any computer chips. They’ll blow them off the face of the earth.” Well, who said that? My question, dear readers, is part of the mystery of the Taiwan Strait. And who better to unlock that mystery than Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, whose summer trip to Asia may well include a stop in Taiwan? Indeed, she could already be on her way there as I write.

I just hope she has packed her SPF 50 sunscreen, as the Asian island is really warming up. When it came up during their call on Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned President Joe Biden that “resolutely safeguarding China’s national sovereignty and territorial integrity is the firm will of the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people. … Those who play with fire will perish by it.” On second thoughts, better pack a Kevlar pantsuit.

Pelosi’s Taiwan trip would hardly be a surprise. In early April, Japanese media reported that she would go there after a trip to Japan. Right away, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi warned that a visit to Taiwan by such a high-ranking legislator would be a “malicious provocation.” However, Pelosi had to postpone the visit after she contracted Covid-19. Two weeks ago, the Financial Times broke the story that she had rescheduled the trip for August.

“Pelosi would be likely to fly to Taipei on a U.S. military aircraft,” reported the New York Times on Monday. “Some analysts looking at Chinese denunciations of the proposed visit say that China could send aircraft to ‘escort’ her plane and prevent it from landing.” A nervous Biden told reporters: “The military thinks it’s not a good idea right now.” That seems not to have changed Pelosi’s mind.

So here’s the first part of the mystery. Why did the Pentagon take three months to figure out that a trip by the House speaker to Taiwan was “not a good idea”? It’s not as if relations between the US and China took a turn for the worse only a week ago. Taiwan has been the key flashpoint of Cold War II — Berlin plus Cuba plus the Persian Gulf — since the Sino-American relationship decisively soured over four years ago.

As I argued here in March last year, bringing Taiwan under the control of Beijing has been the consistent objective of the Chinese Communist Party for decades. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian is a noted exponent of the new “wolf warrior” diplomacy. But there was nothing novel about his warning that Pelosi’s visit would pose a threat to Chinese sovereignty and territorial integrity and that China would have to respond with “strong and resolute measures.”

We have seen this movie several times before: in 1954-55, 1958 and 1995-96. The most recent case was the most similar to today’s. In June 1995, President Lee Teng-hui of Taiwan was granted a visa to deliver a speech at his alma mater, Cornell University, on “Taiwan’s Democratization Experience.”

President Bill Clinton was not looking for trouble with Beijing. He had campaigned against George H.W. Bush with a pledge not to “coddle” the “tyrants” of Beijing, but his early threat to restrict trade with China in the absence of “overall, significant progress” on human rights had been a failure — despite the enthusiastic support of one Nancy Pelosi. The Clinton administration had denied Lee Teng-hui a visa once before. This time, Congress forced the issue, passing a resolution in favor Lee’s visit by 396 votes to 0.

As the speech was less than a year before the first free election in Taiwan’s history, many people expected Lee to use the occasion to declare the island’s formal independence. Lee’s position was deliberately vague, though most observers believed that he privately supported independence. (Years later, he surprised the Taiwanese public by stating that he did not.) His election opponent, however, favored unification with the mainland.

Beijing’s retaliation to the US decision to grant Lee a visa was both diplomatic and military. The Chinese ambassador to Washington was withdrawn and an American photojournalist in Beijing arrested. On July 21, the People’s Liberation Army began firing two missiles a day into an impact zone 100 miles north of Taiwan. Washington responded by ordering a series of naval operations in the Taiwan Strait, culminating in December with the transit through the strait by the aircraft carrier Nimitz battle group. (In response to Chinese protests, the Clinton administration explained the transit as a “weather diversion.”)

As the Taiwanese election date of March 23, 1996, approached, Beijing announced new missile tests and naval exercises, including an amphibious landing on an island selected “because of the similarity of the topography there with that of Taiwan.” China fired M-9 ballistic missiles that landed not far from the Taiwanese ports of Keelung and Kaohsiung, and conducted live-fire exercises near the Taiwanese island of Penghu.

That the missiles were capable of carrying nuclear warheads was noted with deep disquiet in Washington. Two months earlier, according to a 1998 story by the Washington Post, the deputy chief of China's general staff, General Xiong Guangkai, had told Chas W. Freeman Jr., a China expert who had served as assistant secretary of defense: “In the 1950s, you three times threatened nuclear strikes on China, and you could do that because we couldn’t hit back. Now we can. So you are not going to threaten us again because, in the end, you care a lot more about Los Angeles than Taipei.”

To their credit, the Clinton team did not blink. On March 7 — in a State Department dining room overlooking the Potomac River — Defense Secretary William J. Perry warned Liu Huaqiu, a senior Chinese national security official, that there would be “grave consequences” should Chinese weapons strike Taiwan. Secretary of State Warren Christopher and National Security Adviser Anthony Lake, who were also present, repeated those words.

On March 11 the Nimitz — redirected from the Persian Gulf — sailed through the Taiwan Strait again. “It was very tense,” a senior defense official told the Post. “We were up all night for weeks. We prepared the war plans, the options. It was horrible.” But it worked. Beijing backed down. Lee won the election and tensions receded.

This brings us to the second mystery of the Taiwan Strait: Why, when they already have their hands full with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, would Biden’s national security team want a repeat of that 1996 experience?

Part of the explanation must be, as I have argued here before, that the Biden administration remains committed to being more hawkish on China than its predecessor. The pattern is consistent. In May, Secretary of State Antony Blinken criticized “Beijing’s growing coercion — like trying to cut off Taiwan’s relations with countries around the world, and blocking it from participating in international organizations” and its “increasingly provocative rhetoric and activity, like flying PLA aircraft near Taiwan on an almost daily basis.”

In June, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III warned China against “provocative and destabilizing” activity near Taiwan, following talks in Singapore with the Chinese defense minister, General Wei Fenghe. Speaking in Singapore, Austin declared that the US would maintain its “capacity to resist any use of force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security or the social or economic system of the people of Taiwan.” And the president himself has indicated several times that he no longer favors a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” whereby the US simultaneously acknowledges that Taiwan is part of “one China” and commits to resisting a forcible subjugation of the island by Beijing.

They must know what’s coming. In September 2020, when President Donald Trump’s administration sent Keith Krach, the under secretary of state for economic growth, to Taipei, China’s military retaliated by overstepping the median line that bisects the Taiwan Strait. Last November, when a US House delegation visited Taiwan, the PLA deployed two dozen aircraft to enter Taiwan’s southwest air-defense identification zone.

If Pelosi’s trip goes ahead, we can expect more in this vein, but on a larger scale. In addition to flyovers, there could be maritime militia operations around Taiwan. Beijing could also test its latest ballistic missile, the DF-26 (the so-called Guam Killer, capable of reaching the US base on that Pacific island).

Presumably, the calculation in the White House remains, as in the 2020 election, that being tough on China is a vote-winner — or, to put it differently, that doing anything the Republicans can portray as “weak on China” is a vote-loser. Yet it is hard to believe that this calculation would hold if the result were a new international crisis, with all its potential economic consequences.

It is not 1996, in four fundamental respects. First, China’s leadership has a very different outlook. President Xi Jinping is hardly Jiang Zemin, the CCP general secretary during the earlier crisis. Xi harks back to a style of personality cult not seen since Mao Zedong’s time, and an ideological rigor very different from the economic pragmatism of post-1989 period.

Second, while Jiang had growing pains to contend with, today’s Chinese economy has acute slowing pains. Growth was negative in the second quarter. The International Monetary Fund expects growth this year overall to be just 3.3% — and that strikes me as optimistic.

The demographic trends and debt dynamics are dire, presaging continued trouble in an over-leveraged real estate sector. On top of policies that have knocked the stuffing out of the country’s big technology companies and private education sector, Xi’s doctrine of “dynamic zero Covid” has crushed consumer confidence. The latest reading points to the worst collapse since surveys began, back in those distant 1990s.

According to economists Hunter Chan and Ding Shuang of Standard Chartered Plc, there are some signs of economic improvement in the most recent data. Car sales are up; so are real estate sales, while steel rebar inventories are down. But all this tells me is that the third quarter will be better than the second, mainly because the government cannot risk lockdowns as severe as those imposed on Shanghai earlier in the year. Covid restrictions persist. They’ve simply moved to Anhui, Lanzhou, Shenzhen, Xi’an, Wuhan and Wuxi, and are no longer being imposed in such a draconian fashion.

The latest data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics put youth (ages 16 to 24) unemployment at a shocking 19.3% in June. Small wonder “tang ping” — lying flat — has become this year’s catchphrase among young Chinese. It’s shorthand for checking out of the rat race. “Bai lan” — let it rot — is even more fatalistic.

The mystery of the Taiwan Strait deepens. Surely it is obvious to someone in Washington that such a severe economic crisis increases rather than reduces the incentive for conflict with the US. How ignorant of history do you have to be not to see Xi’s urgent need for a new source of legitimacy for the CCP, now that economic growth can no longer provide it?

The third difference between the Clinton era and the Biden era is the military balance. To be sure, as Nan Tian, Diego Lopes da Silva and Alexandra Marksteiner recently pointed out in Foreign Affairs, “U.S. military expenditures have risen by approximately 40% over the past two decades.” But China has seen “27 uninterrupted years of increased military spending” since the last Taiwan Strait crisis, taking total military expenditures to $293 billion last year.

In 1996, the Chinese had no way of sinking American aircraft carriers. Today they have missiles that can do just that. In 1996 their nuclear saber-rattling was a bluff. Today it is not.

In their new book, “Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China,” my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Hal Brands and Michael Beckley argue that the possibility of a war over Taiwan is much higher than conventional wisdom assumes. I am inclined to agree.

“Beijing’s political window is closing,” Brands wrote on June 23, “as the population of Taiwan becomes ever more determined not to accept reunification on the mainland’s terms. Impending demographic decline and a slowing economy are also threatening China’s long-term trajectory, perhaps putting President Xi Jinping in a ‘now or never’ position. Historically speaking, this sort of situation has often tempted dissatisfied powers to use force to achieve objectives they cannot attain peacefully.”

It is not strong, confident powers that start wars; it is weakening powers that know time is not on their side.

The timing of a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan is endlessly debated by war wonks. I often hear time frames ranging from five to 10 years — or even longer (a case in point: Bloomberg Opinion columnist Admiral James Stavridis’s novelistic war of “2034”). But I was very struck by a New York Times report last week saying some Biden administration officials fear that “Chinese leaders might try to move against the self-governing island over the next year and a half — perhaps by trying to cut off access to all or part of the Taiwan Strait, through which U.S. naval ships regularly pass.”

I don’t know who those officials are. They may be scaremongering. Or they may know something we don’t.

The fourth respect in which this isn’t 1996 is that we’ve shown our hand. As Senator Chris Coons of Delaware said last week, “there is a lot of attention being paid” to the lessons China may be learning from events in Ukraine. “One school of thought,” said Coons, Biden’s closest congressional confidante, “is that the lesson is ‘go early and go strong’ before there is time to strengthen Taiwan’s defenses. And we may be heading to an earlier confrontation — more a squeeze than an invasion — than we thought.”

Xi did nothing to dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from invading Ukraine and trying to topple its government. Apart from heroic leadership and courageous defense by the Ukrainians, the main reason Putin’s invasion failed are that Western governments imposed a wide range of sanctions on Russia and, perhaps more importantly, shipped large quantities of weapons to Ukraine.

Yet even with Western support, the Ukrainians have been unable to drive the Russian army out of the Donbas and the territory east of Kherson in the south. A fifth of Ukraine is in Russian hands (though a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive could change that).

Xi understands that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a riskier undertaking than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, he knows that Taiwan is much less of a “porcupine” than Ukraine when it comes to self-defense. He knows that supplying Taiwan with arms would be far harder for the West than supplying Ukraine. He knows that the economic costs of imposing sanctions on China would be higher for the West than imposing them on Russia. And he knows that a protracted war over Taiwan would be even more disruptive to the global economy than a protracted war over Ukraine.

As Brands puts it, “The fighting would turn parts of the most economically dynamic region on earth into a free-fire zone; it would threaten critical shipping lanes through which perhaps one-third of the world’s seaborne traffic passes.”

Not only that, but thanks to the world-leading position of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — which makes 92% of the advanced semiconductors necessary for every smartphone, laptop and ballistic missile in the world — a war for Taiwan would devastate the world economy, including the US technology sector, as Graham Allison and Eric Schmidt pointed out last month. According to estimates by the RAND Corporation, a one-year war between the US and China would cut U.S. gross domestic product by 5% to 10%. Even this administration would have to acknowledge that as a recession.

The war in Ukraine has in many ways taken us back more than a century, to the kind of conflict we saw in World War I. There are brutal battles of attrition in which artillery is the crucial weapon. And there is economic warfare in which the private property of enemy citizens and the reserves of central banks are fair game.

In recent weeks, I have discussed the implications with two eminent central bankers. One worried that the confiscation of private assets had fundamentally discredited the Anglo-American claim to uphold the rule of law and private property rights. Another feared that the freezing of the Russian Central Bank’s reserves could ultimately undermine the reserve currency status of the dollar. Neither talked of these measures as secret weapons China would be unable to withstand. As one of them put it, the key question is: “What do the Chinese do now that we’ve shown them our playbook?”

The final mystery of the Taiwan Strait is that a Democratic administration is on a collision course that its predecessor would never have risked. True, Trump’s administration did a great deal that upset Beijing, not least imposing the tariffs that the Biden administration can’t seem to lift.
But would Trump have gone to the brink of war over Taiwan? According to former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s memoir, Trump liked to point to the tip of one of his Sharpies and say, “This is Taiwan,” then point to the Resolute desk in the Oval Office and say, “This is China.”
“Taiwan is like two feet from China,” Trump told one Republican senator. “We are 8,000 miles away. If they invade, there isn’t a f***ing thing we can do about it.”

In March, Trump had a phone conversation with the professional golfer John Daly that future historians will quote, whether they believe a word he said or not.
It’s like they’re afraid of him,” Trump said, referring to Putin. “You know, he was a friend of mine. I got along great with him. I say, ‘Vladimir, if you do it [attack Ukraine], we’re hitting Moscow’… and he sort of believed me, like 5%, 10%, that's all you need. He never did it during my time, John, you know … Why didn’t he do this during the last four years? … Xi didn’t bother me either. I told him the same thing.” And Trump added: “Taiwan will be next. You won’t have any computer chips. They’ll blow them off the face of the earth.”
Yes, that’s who said the words I began this column with. And we’d all better hope — Nancy Pelosi, especially — that they don’t turn out to be prophetic.
Niall Ferguson at [email protected]

[tdracer]

Can China have seriously expected that the US bows to any threats? They sort of manoeuvred themselves into this situation.
China would pay a high price as well if this escalates.

Pelosi has called China's bluff (interesting that Biden is not backing her on this - that's a bad look for the POTUS). Now, if China backs down, they lose face. If they do something aggressive against Pelosi it's an act of war, and they (and much of the rest of the world) could lose a whole lot more.
This could get very interesting...

[Lonewolf_50]

Wait a sec, she's doing this as a lone wolf (:confused:) and not in concert with the administration's general line on China? Where did you hear that?

[tdracer]

Wait a sec, she's doing this as a lone wolf (:confused:) and not in concert with the administration's general line on China? Where did you hear that?
I read that the Administration asked her to cancel the trip (or at least the stop in Taiwan). However off hand I don't remember where I read that (it was on-line, so it has to be true, right :}). It wasn't Facebook or something like that - I generally only read news from supposedly reputable sources (then again MSN - who I'd normally consider reputable - is carrying that story about a Vueling A320 turning around and returning to the departure airport because it took off with "too much fuel",):ugh:
If I see something about it again, I'll link it.

[Beamr]

Was it this you read, tdracer?

"President Joe Biden’s national security and military advisers had cautioned Pelosi against the visit, POLITICO previously reported, given the heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing."

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/01/pelosi-taiwan-xi-biden-china-00048940

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/felix_nuno/status/1554595236290117632?s=21&t=G-1LOdKpXjIPbj3peymhfA
Burning Ammo - Chinese artillery exercise…

[Beamr]

Burning Ammo - Chinese artillery exercise…
handsome fireworks, but at the same time makes me wonder what is the quality of chnese artillery equipment. The Russians have worn out their big guns in Ukraine and apparently they are facing quality issues in replacing the barrels. Just wondering what is left of the chinese barrels after such a thrust of hot metal. The chinese are shouting out similar type of rhetorics as Russia regarding their military capabilty, but what is the truth in the end.

[skua]

China continuing its strong track record on outperforming on contributing to global warming.

[Lyneham Lad]

A very long article with diagrams & photos in this afternoon's edition of The Times.
Taiwan braced for Chinese blockade as Nancy Pelosi pledges solidarity (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/580f2f56-1294-11ed-b5dc-213f5c972cc4?shareToken=65e457cb399d62cf6709749da8d2c4fb)

https://nuk-tnl-deck-prod-static.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/uploads/ceb95a52f41b41638b406ca3694ca5e0.png

[Asturias56]

The dark blue "Territorial Waters" line looks a lot more than 12 miles off the coast?

"I read that the Administration asked her to cancel the trip ("

I read the same thing but it was "sources in Washington" - so people opposed to supporting Taiwan leaking to the media

There is no way anyone official is going to Taiwan without the President OK-ing it

[MJ89]

Interesting reading between the lines to kinda see how the planners have put this together. And what they think they can get away with. The 7 o clock area for instance will see fighting if they cross the 12 m line 100% so red herring. then again they all could be, just think back to the similar live firing exercises off Ireland earlier this year. that never happened.
Monkey see monkey do.
Straight outa The Vlad playbook.
Hm

[ORAC]

https://samf.substack.com/p/russia-and-china-perils-of-autocracy?utm_medium=email

Russia and China: Perils of Autocracy

…Biden and Xi spoke last week. The US President was warned that the he was ‘playing with fire’ if the speaker’s visit went ahead. This of course guaranteed that the US would not stop the visit taking place.

As Pelosi landed to an enthusiastic welcome, Taiwan has been subjected to minor economic sanctions, a denial of service cyber attack, ostentatious movement of Chinese military units, overflights by aircraft, and so on. More seriously there are to be live fire drills around the coats of Taiwan and a demonstration of how the Chinese Navy would implement a blockade of the island (in many ways a more likely future option than a full-blown invasion).

In the short-term the problem for Beijing is that none of this has made any difference to the visit. It has shown its displeasure but also its caution. Having made a fuss about the visit but then failing to stop it happening is embarrassing. It can at least claim to put down a marker to discourage further such visits. The next few days risks the sort of incidents that could lead to escalation but the real concern is over the long-term. So long as Beijing finds Taiwan’s de facto independence intolerable then war is a serious possibility. Taiwan will become more of an armed camp ready to make China pay heavily should it try to occupy the island and will become even more determined to resist coercive pressures, including by a blockade. US prestige will become more attached to Taiwan’s defence and it will look to allies to play a role, especially if the issue is one of freedom of the seas.

It is not obvious that there is a good outcome for China if it pushes too hard, in the same way that there is no good outcome for Russia in Ukraine. Russia’s experience should warn Xi of the pitfalls accompanying any military action even when the odds look very favourable, including the risk that in the effort to take territory it wanted badly it would end up devastating the land and its people, let alone the possibility of war with the United States. This is the peril of autocracy – a conviction that a supreme leader, beyond challenge at home and presiding over vast armed forces, should always be able to get what he wants and never needs to compromise.…..

[Lonewolf_50]

Here's an output from Speaker Pelosi: I have a hard time believing that she would do this politically sensitive thing without coordinating with President Biden.
She's been around long enough to know when to, and when not to, push at the Executive Branch from the Legislative branch.
This isn't a time to do that.

https://twitter.com/SpeakerPelosi/status/1554482274430844928?s=20&t=BZhkbXDW_uRwJel6iJ53-w

[tdracer]

Was it this you read, tdracer?

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/01/pelosi-taiwan-xi-biden-china-00048940

Yep, that was it - thanks.
Lonewolf - that's my basic point. Had she done something like this when The Donald was there (and gone against his wishes), I would have considered it par for the course.
But Biden's her guy - and this makes him look weak (or more accurately - weaker).

[uxb99]

So if China and America goes to war (non nuclear) who would win?

[pr00ne]

So if China and America goes to war (non nuclear) who would win?

Nobody! Everybody would lose, as in the entire human race.

[uxb99]

Nobody! Everybody would lose, as in the entire human race.
What about non nuclear?

[Lonewolf_50]

Yep, that was it - thanks.
Lonewolf - that's my basic point. Had she done something like this when The Donald was there (and gone against his wishes), I would have considered it par for the course.
But Biden's her guy - and this makes him look weak (or more accurately - weaker). OK, thanks, and she's doing this under the auspices of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. Over the past few weeks, the clash between Pelosi and the Biden administration over her travel plans has spilled into public view. Biden himself had said the military “thinks it’s not a good idea right now” for Pelosi to travel to the island. Although Pelosi has declined to address her travel plans, she told reporters on Friday that Congress should play a greater role in advancing Biden’s security goals in the Indo-Pacific, noting that, “We have global responsibilities.” Pelosi has been among the most consistent China hawks (https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/28/pelosi-china-taiwan-00048352) over the last three decades, even taking on her own party when it comes to the threat Beijing poses to U.S. security and economic interests. She has championed human-rights concerns in China, including the genocide of Uyghur Muslims and the crackdown of pro-democracy protesters in Tiananmen Square in 1989. Yeah, this is a case where I suppose that she's, strictly speaking, operating under her role in the Legislative Branch (we had a few visits by Senators while I was deployed some years ago, something similar) and not beholden to the Executive Branch for permission. I can see where the optics are suboptimal here.
So if China and America goes to war (non nuclear) who would win?
What do you mean by win?
What do you consider to be victory conditions for China and for the US?
What are the political objectives of either side when armed forces are committed?
This isn't a video game, FFS, this is real life.

[ORAC]

Maybe this wasn’t quite as unplanned and agreed as suspected…

https://twitter.com/indopac_info/status/1554716206011076608?s=21&t=b136m9HHOivFmlGRaRddhA


3 US carrier groups namely the aircraft carrier group USS Ronald Reagan & the amphibious assault groups USS Tripoli & USS America are in the vicinity of Taiwan. The map also shows the locations of the 2 Chinese carriers, Liaoning & Shandong.


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/540x757/image_e5959c1e74332cb2f06ff88ede75ea48472d939b.jpeg

[etudiant]

Yep, that was it - thanks.
Lonewolf - that's my basic point. Had she done something like this when The Donald was there (and gone against his wishes), I would have considered it par for the course.
But Biden's her guy - and this makes him look weak (or more accurately - weaker).

In this instance, I think this was a perfectly orchestrated show by the US government.
Biden comes across as conciliatory, Pelosi sends a message of Congressional independence and they both show the US does recognize its interests and supports a freely elected government.
Most important, it represents a clear rejection of the long tolerated Chinese technique of salami slicing, trying to constrain their neighbors by creeping tightening of constraints and taboos.
Interestingly enough, the Chinese public appears to have been the most impacted.
Reports are that Weibo crashed due to an overload of comments, mostly disappointed that China's wishes had been ignored with no consequences.
One poster reportedly asked: 'Could we not at least have made her take the (mandatory in China) Covid test on arrival?'
Although this was quickly censored, clearly the Chinese retain their strong sense of humor.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1554947239558418432?s=21&t=b136m9HHOivFmlGRaRddhA


The aggressive behaviour of China, the PLA and the Eastern Theatre Command, as shown in this graphic, will provide valuable insights into Chinese military thinking and capacity in the days ahead. 1/14

[Asturias56]

The Chinese (and very few westerners TBH) don't understand the "she's, strictly speaking, operating under her role in the Legislative Branch (we had a few visits by Senators while I was deployed some years ago, something similar) and not beholden to the Executive Branch for permission."

They're a dictatorship - and everything flows from the top - they think we're taking them for fools by saying that she might not have approval from Biden to go

[Barksdale Boy]

Yes, a joint jaunt by Nancy, Kamala and John Roberts would have been interesting.

[henra]

Nobody! Everybody would lose, as in the entire human race.
Indeed. Although China is from a nuclear perspective rather a dwarf compared to Russia. It has roughly 1/20th the number of Warheads compared to Russia.
But still the overall effect of such a nuclear exchange would be catastrophic.
That said, a nuclear exchange with Russia would be extinctive for mankind.

[Less Hair]

The US just gave a signal to China. No more quiet expansion.No Crimea 2.0. Taiwan will be protected. The US act early, they let things escalate early, they force China to state the true intentions. All this at a well picked moment while China is practically paralyzed because of the upcoming party congress preparing the next Xi term. They even managed to squeeze in a message to Kim with the Korea maneuvers.
This visit is obviously very well coordinated with the White House and well prepared. It is just diplomatically labeled to look a little less offensive in public. I call this a strategic message to China after the Ukraine and Hongkong experiences.

[Fitter2]

China's foreign minister has called US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan "manic, irresponsible and irrational".

From a Western perspective, the level of teddies thrown out of their pram by the current Chinese tantrum is accurately described by Mr Wang Yi's words. One handshake = how many millions of Renyinbi in ammunition wasted in a chest beating firework display.

[fdr]

From a Western perspective, the level of teddies thrown out of their pram by the current Chinese tantrum is accurately described by Mr Wang Yi's words. One handshake = how many millions of Renyinbi in ammunition wasted in a chest beating firework display.

:} The world is having a helmet fire, yet there is still some humor left outside.

There is a substantial amount of preparation in the region that has been quietly building up, on the Blue team's side. China may be annoyed, but they are risking completely collapsing their communism with Chinese characteristics, shutting down Taiwan will conclude by default Chinese trade based on arbitrage which has powered their economy to this point. As Russia has gone before, trade would be damaged even more through disrupting Taiwan. That wouldn't even be a choice of outcome,it is an inevitable outcome just from the effect of an attack on the global supply chain. That bites both ways, as China is heavily dependent on food import, and is already heading towards a rerun of the bad bits of the 60's own goal on food supply issues. Management may feel insulated but that comes with risks as there is a lot of people to have a really bad downside from a supersized Japanese 80's style meltdown. The CCP maintains control through the apathy of the populace who have enjoyed the boom that has been driven by foreign trade, and all of that is at risk.

None of this is good, but China is a dumpster fire already irrespective of the irritant that Taiwan represents to them; Taiwan is like #899 on the priorities of problems coming down the cistern to the chinese systems drain. Nothing about Taiwan fixes the impending problems that China has, but it will bring out the popcorn. The corruption of the PLA is severe, and Russias performance in the wake of corruption of a similar scale won't be lost on the underlings, but Xi has isolated himself from input, so may well be the last emperor.

This situation will reinforce some resolve, as the PRC's response already is an aggressive response to a perceived slight from a person not being a head of state.

The USN, USAF, and Marines have serious level of capability in the area already, hope that results in cooler heads prevailing.

Interesting times

[Less Hair]

Same problem as Russia and Kim: Too many threats and nobody will be scared anymore.

[Buster Hyman]

The Communists that cried Wolfski?

[Baldeep Inminj]

It seems to me there are really just 2 questions that matter - will there be a U.S /China War over Taiwan, and if so, how will it progress.

China has repeatedly stated that it will bring Taiwan back under it's control (debatable if it ever was of course...), and has expicitly said many times that it does not rule out the use of force to achieve this. The U.S. policy of Strategic Ambiguity has been laid bare by President Biden - even if he was not supposed to...the U.S will defend Taiwan against any military incursion. This is clear and not disputed.

So, China is saying they will take Taiwan 'back', and the U.S is saying they will not allow that to happen. Therefore, it seems easy to conclude that unless one of them backs down, then there will be a conflict at some point. This is where it gets interesting...

China is well known for taking the 'long-view' and has shown that they can have infinite patience whilst they wait for circumstances to suit their needs. They will be watching the political situation is the U.S closely, with the ever increasing divide between rich and poor, democrat and republican, and of course the looming possibility of another Trump term. They will be assessing whether that will work in their favour or not...would Trump use the military to defend Taiwan? Will American society breakdown? Will the Russian aggression against Ukraine succeed etc. All of these things, and many more including the domestic political situation in China, will factor into the decision.

I strongly think that China absolutely will attempt to take Taiwan by force, but they will do it when they think they can. They are currently thumping their chests for domestic consumption so Xi can appear strong before his bid for a 3rd 5 year term. This does not of course account for the possibility of an 'accidental war' when someone gets an itchy trigger finger. Right now I think China has too much to lose, and victory would be far from certain. There is a logic that states that if 2 nuclear powers go to war, and one starts to lose, then they will deploy nukes as a last resort. Even without that happening, the question as to who would 'win' (asked earlier) is not really valid, the better question would be 'who will lose the least'. A conventional war between China and the US would be horrendous beyond belief. However, given the location of the likely 'battlefield', my money would be on China ultimately being the victor, but not without devastating losses inflicted by the U.S.

Both sides know this and so we must hope that restraint wins the day, at least for now. The Pelosi visit was a firm 'fc*k you' to China, and only a fool would have expected it to have gone unanswered. Things will calm down to a quiet standoff before too long I think.

But hey, what do I know?

[Less Hair]

China tried to move forward when the US was perceived to be weak. But the US is far from weak. Message sent.
There is an easy way out: Both sides can just keep the positions they had before but they cannot move ahead something China tried to do with threatening a Taiwan invasion. China has just seen in Ukraine that invading is no walk in the park while Taiwan recently got armed up. At the same time the US is getting prepared to move away from trading with China, quite different from Europe currently, in case of embargoes needed and out of growing strategic and espionage concerns.
China needs the western technology and hard currency income and its global supply lines are quite vulnerable, big navy or not. It cannot risk to end up being the next outlaw. There are enough domestic issues from finances to real estate, a very undeveloped inland and minorities the party will have to deal with.
Therefore it's time to calm down again and stay with the Status Quo.

[fitliker]

You can watch a thief , but you cannot trust a liar .

[Spunky Monkey]

A US China war? Why? The US has no desire to take China and probably couldn't even if it wanted to. The idea is daft.

The opportunity for small scale incursions and a serious fight over Taiwan is unlikely.
The US would destroy Chinese capabilities within weeks although with some serious losses that would galvanise the US population both left and right.
China definitely doesn't want that.
At the moment the US populace is fighting amongst itself over BLM, the Police, Religion, Guns, Pronouns and Abortion.
The Chinese don't need to get involved, they have more than enough to deal with internally as well as investments that haven't worked out including Afghanistan, N Korea and African pilfering and reneging on contracts.
Plus 60% of the Chinese population is poor - very poor, in fact poorer that the population of Africa and that is going some.

It could be said that the US needs a war with China or at least some proper skirmishes more than the Chinese do.

[Asturias56]

Trouble is Xi has chosen to inflame Nationalist tendencies rather than cool them - no doubt so they "need" a Strong Leader.

Now he has to wind down the tension whilst still banging the big drum.

[fdr]

Trouble is Xi has chosen to inflame Nationalist tendencies rather than cool them - no doubt so they "need" a Strong Leader.

Now he has to wind down the tension whilst still banging the big drum.

Xanax apparently helps. Maybe with a squeeze of Ritalin.

[Lyneham Lad]

Pushing the boundaries (and their luck?). Earlier today I zoomed around the globe courtesy FR24 to have a look at activity around Taiwan. A USAF RC135-V had flown a pattern close to the exclusion zone to the SW of the island and then turned, heading directly to the mainland. As I watched, wondering at what point it would turn away it turned off its transponder. A recipe for close-encounters of the unwelcome kind?

[ORAC]

On the other hand it might not have turned it off, there is another explanation….

[DaveReidUK]

On the other hand it might not have turned it off, there is another explanation….

Several, in fact.

A common misconception, for a start, is that the flight trackers have 100% coverage of the world's airspace.

[Bergerie1]

And did China ever have Taiwan (Formosa that was)? Seems rather dubious according to this article.

https://unherd.com/2022/08/how-chinese-is-taiwan/

[Lonewolf_50]

And did China ever have Taiwan (Formosa that was)? Seems rather dubious according to this article.
https://unherd.com/2022/08/how-chinese-is-taiwan/ I will suggest to you that people in the PRC have their own version of this, and it is vehemently put forth.
Why would they respect someone else's opinion on that?
The article self detonates as soon as they go with comparing Taiwan with Ireland.
Nope. Terrible analogy, not to mention a bit too westernmyopic as well.

[etudiant]

And did China ever have Taiwan (Formosa that was)? Seems rather dubious according to this article.

https://unherd.com/2022/08/how-chinese-is-taiwan/

Maybe I read the wrong history, but afaik, the Chinese kicked the Dutch out of Taiwan in 1662.
Not sure they ever saw much use for it, except as a place to allow foreign barbarians to come for trade, keeping them safely away from China.

[jolihokistix]

Taiwan is and always has been de facto an independent entity from the mainland.

No need to declare anything, unless they announce a decision to change political systems and accept CCP rule.

[Asturias56]

If , in 1945-48, the KMT had declared Taiwan independent and asked for US recognition we wouldn't be where we are today - China would almost certainly claim Taiwan but Is upectthe rhetoric would be lower key

Spending the next 30+ years proclaiming that Taiwan was part of China a wasn't a brilliant move when the wind changed

[Less Hair]

Part of China but not part of communist China.

[langleybaston]

upectthe rhetoric

Say again all after "Good afternoon!"

[Asturias56]

"Part of China but not part of communist China"

IIRC the KMT claimed to run the whole shooting match - and a lot of people in DC agreed with them - until they didn't of course.

I sometimes wonder what might have been the course of history if that lunatic Kim Il Sung hadn't invaded S Korea and brought the US and China face to face on the battlefield.

[Lonewolf_50]

The Republic of China: Kuomintang (and its successors)
The People's Republic of China: CCP.
Been that way since about 1949, right?
(Or, did the folks on Taiwan one day drop the RoC appellation? I might have missed a memo)

I recall a similar distinction between East and West Germany: FDR and DDR, back in the day. (Also see the reference to Kim et al above)

[Less Hair]

It used to be FRG and GDR back then.

[Asturias56]

Taiwan is still officially "The Republic of China" I believe

the DDR/BDR isn't really the same as neither side claimed to "own" or represent the other

A more interesting example is the Republic of Ireland and N Ireland where the Republic issues passports to N Irish citizens (but not vice-versa) and

"Article 3.1 of the Constitution of Ireland (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_Ireland) "recognises that a united Ireland shall be brought about only by peaceful means with the consent of a majority of the people, democratically expressed, in both jurisdictions in the island".[ (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland#cite_note-16)This provision was introduced in 1999 after implementation of the Good Friday Agreement (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement), as part of replacing the old Articles 2 and 3 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Articles_2_and_3_of_the_Constitution_of_Ireland), which had laid a direct claim to the whole island as the national territory"

which wasn't that different to the Chinese position on Taiwan until Xi took out Hong Kong and whipped up the current storm.

[Lonewolf_50]

It used to be FRG and GDR back then. Auf Deutsch: DDR for East Gemany. (Deutsche Demokratische Republik)
I am reaching back over 50 years in memory: we were taught something like FDR (Federalische Deutsche Republik) for the West but I suspect that Bundesrepublik Deutschland may have been a more accurate term.
Bah, memory starting to line the holes up in the Swiss cheese at this point.

[Less Hair]

Bundesrepublik Deutschland or Federal Republic of Germany to be precise.

[fdr]

DDR for East Gemany. (Deutsche Demokratische Republik)

Irony was not lost on the communists. Seems to be a recurring theme, putting heads on spikes of liberated people is the extension of the cynical leaders that seem to plague the application of utopian concepts corrupted by centralized power.

[etudiant]

The UN is your friend.
There is a commemorative plaque near Strawberry Fields,( of John Lennon fame) in NYC Central Park which includes the German Democratic Republic among its signatories.
Afaik, it is one of the last official documents which mention the GDR.

[jolihokistix]

The *DPRK would love to become the sole government over one Korea, too, thus the south stays suitably armed.

*Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

[Big Pistons Forever]

The recent exercises had very little to do with messaging Taiwan, they had everything to do with messaging the Chinese population. After allowing and even encouraging popular outrage over the Pelosi visit Xi backed himself into a corner and had to be seen to be doing something. Therefore a hastily arranged set of Kabuki theatre exercises was carefully designed to look impressive to the locals but had no practical effect on Taiwan. No ports were blocked and shipping was only briefly affected. Trade continued unaffected except for a few meaningless product bans.

Intent and capability are the only metrics that matters and I would suggest neither have manifestly changed on the part of the PLA with respect to a Military invasion of Taiwan.

Personally I do not think that the PLA will ever have the capability to invade Taiwan. Dictators focus military force inward to control the population and disperse power among multiple overlapping security agencies so that no one will become powerful enough to overthrow the leader. Senior leaders will be chosen for political loyalty over military competence and independent thoughts will be discouraged.

All of the above are the exact opposite of the qualities a modern military capable of effective joint and combined expeditionary operations, needs.

Ultimately it doesn’t matter how many ships and airplanes the PLA has if they don’t have the Command and Control and logistics to effectively use them.

Finally Xi can’t afford to lose, it would be the end of him so I would suggest that the lessons of the Ukraine war have not been lost on him and therefore the chance of a Military invasion of Taiwan had actually gone down.

[etudiant]

The recent exercises had very little to do with messaging Taiwan, they had everything to do with messaging the Chinese population. After allowing and even encouraging popular outrage over the Pelosi visit Xi backed himself into a corner and had to be seen to be doing something. Therefore a hastily arranged set of Kabuki theatre exercises was carefully designed to look impressive to the locals but had no practical effect on Taiwan. No ports were blocked and shipping was only briefly affected. Trade continued unaffected except for a few meaningless product bans.

Intent and capability are the only metrics that matters and I would suggest neither have manifestly changed on the part of the PLA with respect to a Military invasion of Taiwan.

Personally I do not think that the PLA will ever have the capability to invade Taiwan. Dictators focus military force inward to control the population and disperse power among multiple overlapping security agencies so that no one will become powerful enough to overthrow the leader. Senior leaders will be chosen for political loyalty over military competence and independent thoughts will be discouraged.

All of the above are the exact opposite of the qualities a modern military capable of effective joint and combined expeditionary operations, needs.

Ultimately it doesn’t matter how many ships and airplanes the PLA has if they don’t have the Command and Control and logistics to effectively use them.

Finally Xi can’t afford to lose, it would be the end of him so I would suggest that the lessons of the Ukraine war have not been lost on him and therefore the chance of a Military invasion of Taiwan had actually gone down.


Agree with the above.
Xi is not stupid and has serious problems at home, including an imploding real estate sector (30% of GNP), unprecedented unemployment among the youngest, best educated recent graduates and a failed Covid policy, whose costs mount daily.. Getting his third term confirmed with these headwinds is hard enough, but confirmation while engaged in a war that causes China's customers to gag is a non starter, at least imho.

[fdr]

The recent exercises had very little to do with messaging Taiwan, they had everything to do with messaging the Chinese population. After allowing and even encouraging popular outrage over the Pelosi visit Xi backed himself into a corner and had to be seen to be doing something. Therefore a hastily arranged set of Kabuki theatre exercises was carefully designed to look impressive to the locals but had no practical effect on Taiwan. No ports were blocked and shipping was only briefly affected. Trade continued unaffected except for a few meaningless product bans.

Intent and capability are the only metrics that matters and I would suggest neither have manifestly changed on the part of the PLA with respect to a Military invasion of Taiwan.

Personally I do not think that the PLA will ever have the capability to invade Taiwan. Dictators focus military force inward to control the population and disperse power among multiple overlapping security agencies so that no one will become powerful enough to overthrow the leader. Senior leaders will be chosen for political loyalty over military competence and independent thoughts will be discouraged.

All of the above are the exact opposite of the qualities a modern military capable of effective joint and combined expeditionary operations, needs.

Ultimately it doesn’t matter how many ships and airplanes the PLA has if they don’t have the Command and Control and logistics to effectively use them.

Finally Xi can’t afford to lose, it would be the end of him so I would suggest that the lessons of the Ukraine war have not been lost on him and therefore the chance of a Military invasion of Taiwan had actually gone down.

PPRuNe needs a like button

Jingxi is the Peking (Beijing) opera form, which kind of compares to Kabuki.... Not as detailed as Potemkin Villages. The Big Cheeze of the PRC has a domestic audience to play to, and has not made friends with his PLA buddies by impacting their livelihood. Interesting paradox.

[Barksdale Boy]

Agree with the above.
Xi is not stupid and has serious problems at home, including an imploding real estate sector (30% of GNP), unprecedented unemployment among the youngest, best educated recent graduates and a failed Covid policy, whose costs mount daily.. Getting his third term confirmed with these headwinds is hard enough, but confirmation while engaged in a war that causes China's customers to gag is a non starter, at least imho.
Not to mention bank problems in Henan.

[ORAC]

Hal Brands:
The greatest geopolitical catastrophes occur at the intersection of ambition and desperation. Xi’s China may soon be driven by both. An excerpt in @ForeignPolicy from our new book, Danger Zone, on what China wants and why it may not get it.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/13/what-china-wants-us-conflict/

What Does China Want?

Beijing’s ambitions are about to crash into its problems.

By Hal Brands (https://foreignpolicy.com/author/hal-brands/), the Henry A. Kissinger distinguished professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Michael Beckley (https://foreignpolicy.com/author/michael-beckley/), an associate professor of political science at Tufts University.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Hal Brands:
The greatest geopolitical catastrophes occur at the intersection of ambition and desperation. Xi’s China may soon be driven by both. An excerpt in @ForeignPolicy from our new book, Danger Zone, on what China wants and why it may not get it.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/08/13/what-china-wants-us-conflict/

What Does China Want?

Beijing’s ambitions are about to crash into its problems.

By Hal Brands (https://foreignpolicy.com/author/hal-brands/), the Henry A. Kissinger distinguished professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and Michael Beckley (https://foreignpolicy.com/author/michael-beckley/), an associate professor of political science at Tufts University.

An interesting and insightful article. It however does not address one development that has no historical analog, the ubiquity of social media. Chinese leaders can control the message in a way that is unprecedented. Ultimately to stay in power the Chinese Communist Party only has to have the population believe they are the only possible legitimate government. The reality is meaningless, it is only the received message that matters.

This dynamic works against foreign adventures and focuses everyone and everything inwards. The truly profound change in China in the last 5 years is the ubiquity of the surveillance state. More money, people, and energy been focused on this than any external initiatives.

Putin has provided an object lesson on the dangers of over reach, one that I am sure will influence Xi profoundly.

[ORAC]

An interesting and insightful article. It however does not address one development that has no historical analog, the ubiquity of social media.
They David the same about the printing press, the radio, the newsreel, the television…

Marshall McLuhan was particularly astute…

http://clok.uclan.ac.uk/5556/1/5556_Hobbs%20Deleterious-dominance-of-the-Times%20peer%20reviewed%20submitted%20version.pdf

https://americainclass.org/the-radio-as-new-technology-blessing-or-curse-a-1929-debate/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_medium_is_the_message

[Big Pistons Forever]

They David the same about the printing press, the radio, the newsreel, the television…

Marshall McLuhan was particularly astute…

http://clok.uclan.ac.uk/5556/1/5556_Hobbs%20Deleterious-dominance-of-the-Times%20peer%20reviewed%20submitted%20version.pdf

https://americainclass.org/the-radio-as-new-technology-blessing-or-curse-a-1929-debate/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_medium_is_the_message

I respectfully disagree. Information Technology as a whole gives the state the power to dictate the message in a way that is simply unprecedented. In the past the message was generally controlled by isolating the population, the North Korea model if you will.

However the economic miracle that is at the heart of the Communist Parties compact with its people demands engaging the world, yet they have leveraged IT to keep a tight control on the message and manage it in real time. This has never been possible at other than the local level in the past.

[havoc]

China envoy warns US against sailing warships through Taiwan Strait | Al Arabiya English (https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/08/17/China-envoy-warns-US-against-sailing-warships-through-Taiwan-Strait)China called on the US to refrain from sailing naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait, saying Beijing would take further action in the wake of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.

China’s ambassador to Washington, Qin Gang, said on Tuesday that China viewed such Taiwan transits as an escalation by the US and an effort to support the “separatist government” in Taipei. He delivered the warning after Senator Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, wrapped up the second trip to the island in less than two weeks by a US congressional delegation.

“The US side has done too much and going too far in this region,” Qin said in response to a question about potential naval patrols. “I do call on our American colleagues to refrain, to exercise restraint, not to do anything to escalate the tension. So if there’s any moves damaging China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, so China will respond. China will respond.”

The Biden administration has said it would conduct air and maritime transits through the Taiwan Strait after China responded to Pelosi’s trip with a series of military drills around the island, including likely firing ballistic missiles over Taipei. The US has long held that such transits, like congressional visits, are consistent with its “one China policy” not to formally recognize the democratically elected government in Taipei.

The Navy has conducted an average of about nine trips annually through the strait over the past decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, far fewer than the “100 navigations” Qin said the US makes each year. The most recent known trip came on July 19, when the destroyer, the USS Benfold, sailed through the waterway.

Similarly, Pelosi was only the most senior of 149 members of Congress who have visited Taiwan over the past 10 years.

The Biden administration shouldn’t underestimate China’s resolve on the issue of US congressional visits to Taiwan, Qin said, rejecting White House arguments that lawmakers could act independently. He added that such trips violate the agreements underpinning US-China relations.

“Congress is part of the government of the US -- it’s not an independent, uncontrollable branch,” Qin said. “Congress is obliged to abide by the foreign policy of the United States. That’s why we feel very frustrated and dissatisfied with Senator Markey’s visit to Taiwan. It’s provocative, it’s unhelpful.”

Separately, a bipartisan group of Japanese lawmakers plan to visit Taiwan next week, Kyodo News reported on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. The Defense Ministry in Tokyo had previously said that Chinese ballistic missiles landed in what Japan considers its exclusive economic zone after Pelosi’s trip.

Qin defended the Chinese military’s response to the trip, saying the drills were “open, transparent and professional.”

“We are handling a serious fallout from Pelosi’s visit,” Qin told reporters in Washington. He warned the US not to “underestimate the strong resolve, determination and the capability of the Chinese government and the people to defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

Qin also downplayed the threat of an imminent Chinese attack on Taiwan, saying he wasn’t aware of a specific timeline.

“People are over-nervous about it,” he said, adding that speculation China had moved up the timeline for an invasion was “baseless.”

[DaveReidUK]

China called on the US to refrain from sailing naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait, saying Beijing would take further action in the wake of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.

I see what you did there ...

[fdr]

China envoy warns US against sailing warships through Taiwan Strait | Al Arabiya English (https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/08/17/China-envoy-warns-US-against-sailing-warships-through-Taiwan-Strait)China called on the US to refrain from sailing naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait, saying Beijing would take further action in the wake of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.

China’s ambassador to Washington, Qin Gang, said on Tuesday that China viewed such Taiwan transits as an escalation by the US and an effort to support the “separatist government” in Taipei. He delivered the warning after Senator Edward Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, wrapped up the second trip to the island in less than two weeks by a US congressional delegation.

“The US side has done too much and going too far in this region,” Qin said in response to a question about potential naval patrols. “I do call on our American colleagues to refrain, to exercise restraint, not to do anything to escalate the tension. So if there’s any moves damaging China’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, so China will respond. China will respond.”...

...Qin also downplayed the threat of an imminent Chinese attack on Taiwan, saying he wasn’t aware of a specific timeline.

“People are over-nervous about it,” he said, adding that speculation China had moved up the timeline for an invasion was “baseless.”

Thats an interesting denial of the UNCLOS... Presumably PRCians know the consequences of asking the US not to conduct freedom of the seas exercises. It is pretty much like China asking the USA not to use the I-95 in LAX as it is too close to ChinaTown in SFO. Spoken for the domestic market presumably, if they assume the US would take heed of such a reach they really are living the dream. Can they interdict the USN? sure!; as an act of war...

I'm more nervous of the crumbling of the Chinese economy that continues unabated, and in fact, appears to have been accelerated by PRC manglement interventions in recent months. If they want to crash the economy, they are on the right road. The consequences of the overt belligerence however masked and their own trashing of their economy may lead to redistribution of production and logistic structure that leave the PRC dependent on their own internal market. The internal economy has rather grown since my first visit in 86, where there was one store in Beijing for foreigners and precious little else beside from frozen spittoons in the forbidden city, however, the reliance on foreign trade and the bizarre domestic property market and questionable international programs seem to add a large rod to their backs. The PRC govt made great strides towards resource security by sidling up to various countries in the world, and providing cash for carry, however, that is all well and good so long as they were not belligerent, at which point there may be some buyers remorse and return to sender on the largesse that was provided, with strings.

China is a fantastic country, and could so easily have been a miracle, had the govt of the people, been for the people, and by the people, etc... Seems to be a lot of that going around, and even the shining city on the hill seems to be having some identity crisis issues, as they appear to toy with whether the experiment in democracy should be taken over by a failed, criminal shyster who has an apparent cult following. So much for the party of law 'n order....

We live in interesting times, Chinese proverbs seem to maintain relevancy.

[megan]

Chinese Ambassador to Australia Xiao Qian lays down the law, grovel if you please.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AXeHRtmWJ68

[Lonewolf_50]

Qin Gang,
“Congress is part of the government of the US -- it’s not an independent, uncontrollable branch,” Qin said. “Congress is obliged to abide by the foreign policy of the United States. That’s why we feel very frustrated and dissatisfied with Senator Markey’s visit to Taiwan. It’s provocative, it’s unhelpful.”Qin Gang:
Yet another foreign moron who presumes that the American government and the American system functions like theirs.
No, QinGang, it doesn't. Congress can do stuff that the President doesn't care for -, and often does. That's by deliberate design, not by mistake.

[henra]

Yet another foreign moron who presumes that the American government and the American system functions like theirs.
No, QinGang, it doesn't. Congress can do stuff that the President doesn't care for -, and often does. That's by deliberate design, not by mistake.

That really does show how far away from a democracy and a state under the rule of law they are. It is absolutely beyond their imagination that there can be independent parts of a government that control each other. And a legal system that controls all of them totally independent of the government. And worse: They consider this counterproductive. The problem in China is that for the last 20+ years that worked quite OK for a large part of their population. But there are more an more signs that this system will be facing a first serious test (overinflated housing market about to blow up, no idea how to get out of Corona Lockdowns, a LOT of manufacturing leaving China for cheaper places, generally weak economic figues and a demographic time bomb) in the not so distant future. And I guess that is what makes them so nervous. And nervous they obviously are.

[Jonty]

Not sure I would call the Supreme Court “totally independent” of government. Given they are all political appointees.

[Lonewolf_50]

Not sure I would call the Supreme Court “totally independent” of government. Given they are all political appointees. That just adds you to the list of folks who don't get it.

[kiwi grey]

China envoy warns US against sailing warships through Taiwan Strait | Al Arabiya English (https://english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/08/17/China-envoy-warns-US-against-sailing-warships-through-Taiwan-Strait)China called on the US to refrain from sailing naval vessels through the Taiwan Strait, saying Beijing would take further action in the wake of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei.
Thats an interesting denial of the UNCLOS... Presumably PRCians know the consequences of asking the US not to conduct freedom of the seas exercises.

From the Chinese viewpoint, UNCLOS doesn't apply.
Taiwan is part of China, so the Taiwan Strait is from the PRC's point of view an internal Chinese waterway.
That's their story and they're sticking to it.

[fdr]

From the Chinese viewpoint, UNCLOS doesn't apply.
Taiwan is part of China, so the Taiwan Strait is from the PRC's point of view an internal Chinese waterway.
That's their story and they're sticking to it.

Suggest then that UNCLOS be sent to the PRC'ians with Article 3 highlighted in dayglo.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x281/screen_shot_2022_08_19_at_1_20_36_pm_0015a81cbac558c8ebf2dbe f0d2ad94c085a87ca.png


PRC'ia can argue the toss as they may wish, they don't have a legal leg to stand on; they do have the might of arms as an aggressor and non-compliant nation to the UNCLOS.

If the water between the Glorious paradise of China, and the perfidious Taiwanese, sitting atop their rather beautiful isle, was less than 24.0nm, then they could bitch 'n moan and complain. But it ain't.

Presumably if that argument had merit, the shipping that goes in 'n out of Taipei Kaohsiung port, Anping, Keelung, Su-ao, Taipei port, Mailiao port, Hualien, Taichung... would be needing dip clearance from the PRC's.

It's a good shot, but it is a long bow to draw, and would get up the USN's nose pretty quickly.

A point that is occasionally missed by Russia at least is that Article 19 defines Innocent Passage “Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State.” When Russia drives a fleet into Japanese territorial waters and hovers there, they are being naughty. “Innocent passage” implies two prerequisites: that passage be “innocent,” i.e., "not of such a nature as to affect the security or welfare of the coastal state"; and that “passage” only may be exercised, to the "exclusion of such acts as “hovering” or anchoring in the territorial seas".

The USN conducts its FONOPS to ensure the letter of the law of UNCLOS (https://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.htm)is applied, except when they are driving a sub around the 'oggin without a valid navplot, and have to replace their divots, but, hey, stuff happens.

China doesn't try to declare itself an archipelagic state... it has a bit of a problem unless it ditches mainland "China" from the moniker "China".


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/821x619/screen_shot_2022_08_19_at_12_58_51_pm_65f721b09d3ca68bb07929 0df1f6af9412eb262e.png

[henra]

Not sure I would call the Supreme Court “totally independent” of government. Given they are all political appointees.
They are initially nominated by the President. Once appointed they are completely untouchable by the Government (also all subsequent ones). Their decisions can't bring them benefits or disadvantages for their further career. That alone makes them independent. In contrast to this in Countries like China (or Russia) a decision any time can end the career of high judges. That is a significant difference.

[Lonewolf_50]

They are initially nominated by the President. Once appointed they are completely untouchable by the Government (also all subsequent ones). Their decisions can't bring them benefits or disadvantages for their further career. That alone makes them independent. In contrast to this in Countries like China (or Russia) a decision any time can end the career of high judges. That is a significant difference. The nominees are only able to be appointed with the Advice and Consent of Senate; that is per the Constitution. A nominee can be rejected. (Robert Bork being one case in recent memory). The same is true for the major Cabinet officers. We are getting off topic here.

@fdr I am reminded of the never ending shenanigans between the Greeks and the Turks as regards which rock/island in the eastern med is whose and thus where one measures territorial waters from.

[jolihokistix]

Re Lonewolf
”@fdr I am reminded of the never ending shenanigans between the Greeks and the Turks as regards which rock/island in the eastern med is whose and thus where one measures territorial waters from.”

Neverending Story …er Wars.

Israel vs Palestine
Sunni vs Shia
Irish/Scots Prods vs Catholics
Russia vs countries west
Yemen civil war
Libya civil war
Philippines internal
South America guerrilla
etc.

[Lonewolf_50]

Re Lonewolf
”@fdr I am reminded of the never ending shenanigans between the Greeks and the Turks as regards which rock/island in the eastern med is whose and thus where one measures territorial waters from.”
Neverending Story …er Wars. No, not wars, ILOS disagreements that negatively impacted our ability to hold exercises with these two NATO allies - Greece and Turkey. They were disagreements of one level, but of a lesser severity than, say, their disagreements as regards Cyprus. The post I was responding to had to do with arguments over the status of international (or not) waters.

[jolihokistix]

Ah, OK, more like Japan vs China vs Korea over small islets in the sea. The US Navy still has trouble getting South Korea to participate in drills with Japanese navy vessels present.

[Lonewolf_50]

Ah, OK, more like Japan vs China vs Korea over small islets in the sea. The US Navy still has trouble getting South Korea to participate in drills with Japanese navy vessels present. Yeah, that's very much in the same genre. :ok:

[Lonewolf_50]

Another example of how the Chinese simply don't get it (https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-complains-us-not-cracking-down-anti-china-thugs-embassy?intcmp=tw_fnc). Free speech, and such.
The Chinese Communist Party (https://www.foxnews.com/category/world/world-regions/china) is demanding the United States take action to stop ongoing protests outside the nation's embassy. State media in China has complained of harassment outside the country's embassy in the U.S., saying that the government must step in the diffuse tensions.
A spokesperson for the Chinese Embassy (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/taiwan-tsai-ing-wen-mace-slotkin-congress-defiance-china) answered state media outlet CGTN's question on the situation, calling protestors "anti-China thugs."
"Over a long period of time, abetted and organized by anti-China forces, some anti-China thugs have been harassing the Chinese Embassy in the United States at its various locations," the spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy said. "They have been constantly attacking China and the Communist Party of China at high volumes, insulting and intimidating the Embassy staff, fabricating and spreading disinformation, and even resorting to violence." Crybabies. My country has been dealing with this longer than I've been alive: people protesting outside our embassies for {pick a reason}. If the CCP don't like it, too bad.
What will be protected is their status as an embassy and their people.
Their hurt feelings don't matter.

[jolihokistix]

These protesters are Chinese people in the US.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=S1scoyRmxIc

[Lyneham Lad]

Extract from an article today in The Times.

China ‘builds six more destroyers to rival US navy’ (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e0486904-2393-11ed-83fa-560ae4fda953?shareToken=98cdf79f354ab0db3058fcf2e58617f3)
China is producing at least six more advanced guided-missile destroyers, as it continues to build a world-class navy to rival that of the United States, new evidence suggests.

Citing a picture posted on the Chinese microblogging site Weibo, Naval News, a Paris-based defence news site, reported that five hulls of the Type 052D Luyang III-class destroyer were being built at the Dalian shipyard in the country’s northeast.

Another Type 052D destroyer is being built at the Jiangnan-Changxing shipyard northeast of Shanghai, according to Naval News.

All six, armed with guided tactical missiles and advanced radar systems, look set to join an existing fleet of 25 Type 052D destroyers (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taiwan-tracks-china-in-high-seas-game-of-cat-and-mouse-t09hrr22m) in the world’s largest navy, after eight were built last year.

China’s defence ministry has not confirmed the report, nor has it officially announced such construction plans, but unnamed Chinese analysts told The Global Times, a Communist Party newspaper, that it is “not unexpected if China is indeed building more advanced warships, particularly amid the current turbulent global security situation”.

Click the link for the full article.

[jolihokistix]

Just be careful around these shipyards if you are a tourist and keen on photography. :E

[fdr]

Suggest then that UNCLOS be sent to the PRC'ians with Article 3 highlighted in dayglo.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x281/screen_shot_2022_08_19_at_1_20_36_pm_0015a81cbac558c8ebf2dbe f0d2ad94c085a87ca.png


PRC'ia can argue the toss as they may wish, they don't have a legal leg to stand on; they do have the might of arms as an aggressor and non-compliant nation to the UNCLOS.

If the water between the Glorious paradise of China, and the perfidious Taiwanese, sitting atop their rather beautiful isle, was less than 24.0nm, then they could bitch 'n moan and complain. But it ain't.

Presumably if that argument had merit, the shipping that goes in 'n out of Taipei Kaohsiung port, Anping, Keelung, Su-ao, Taipei port, Mailiao port, Hualien, Taichung... would be needing dip clearance from the PRC's.

It's a good shot, but it is a long bow to draw, and would get up the USN's nose pretty quickly.

A point that is occasionally missed by Russia at least is that Article 19 defines Innocent Passage “Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State.” When Russia drives a fleet into Japanese territorial waters and hovers there, they are being naughty. “Innocent passage” implies two prerequisites: that passage be “innocent,” i.e., "not of such a nature as to affect the security or welfare of the coastal state"; and that “passage” only may be exercised, to the "exclusion of such acts as “hovering” or anchoring in the territorial seas".

The USN conducts its FONOPS to ensure the letter of the law of UNCLOS (https://www.un.org/Depts/los/convention_agreements/convention_overview_convention.htm)is applied, except when they are driving a sub around the 'oggin without a valid navplot, and have to replace their divots, but, hey, stuff happens.

China doesn't try to declare itself an archipelagic state... it has a bit of a problem unless it ditches mainland "China" from the moniker "China".


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/821x619/screen_shot_2022_08_19_at_12_58_51_pm_65f721b09d3ca68bb07929 0df1f6af9412eb262e.png


So the USN is transiting 2 x CGs through the straits... outside of 12nm of everyone, which is an expected response. Good to see the point is being made. China can complain as they may, UNCLOS is quite clear, and, for a country that is dependent on both sea trade for their merchant marine, and for the arbitrage that has built their economy to the point that it is at, the "rules is rules...."; the America's Cup adage of "...ruling the waves vs waiving the rules..." seems to fit in passing.

Any country can mouth off, e.g., as Russia does, but the international conventions have obligations and there be dragons consequences if disregarded.

USN, thanks for your service to the rest of us ingrates. Freedom of Navigation is a global need, remove that security, and there would be global famine, in Africa, and China particularly.

[havoc]

Taiwan Says It Will Now Shoot Down Rogue Chinese Drones (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-says-it-will-now-shoot-down-rogue-chinese-drones/ar-AA11f74n?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=042a09dd2c87a80c86efccc3f35c6e92)s its next move in the fast-developing challenge of Chinese drone incursions, the Taiwanese military has reportedly confirmed that it will, in the future, shoot down unmanned aerial vehicles that don’t respond to its warnings. The move comes after authorities on the self-governing island said they would deploy undisclosed domestically developed drone defense systems (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/taiwan-to-deploy-drone-versus-drone-defense-systems-on-its-islands) across its territory, which followed a highly public encounter between a Chinese drone and two Taiwanese soldiers, as you can read about more here (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/troops-throw-rocks-at-drone-over-taiwanese-island-close-to-chinese-coast).
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA11feLH.img?w=534&h=300&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-says-it-will-now-shoot-down-rogue-chinese-drones/ar-AA11f74n?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=042a09dd2c87a80c86efccc3f35c6e92&fullscreen=true#image=1)
Taiwan Says It Will Now Shoot Down Rogue Chinese Drones© YouTube Screencap/Patrick Aventurier/Getty ImagesAccording to a report (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4641134) from Taiwan News, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense yesterday announced that its forces would “shoot down intruding Chinese drones that fail to heed warnings.” Exactly what type of drone defense system is planned to be used in such scenarios is unclear, although The War Zone has already looked at some of the possible candidates (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/taiwan-to-deploy-drone-versus-drone-defense-systems-on-its-islands).

A military drone during the Taiwanese Han Kuang military exercise, which simulates China’s People’s Liberation Army invading the island, on July 27, 2022, in New Taipei City, Taiwan. Photo by Annabelle Chih/Getty Images

What we do know is that the rules of engagement, as described, call for the Taiwanese military to act against drones in its airspace only after they ignore other measures to “drive away” the unmanned aerial vehicles. These include “sounding whistles, broadcasting radio warnings, and firing signal flares.” The last of these is something that Taiwan has done on a fairly regular basis (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4615872) since the current wave of drone incursions began in July. As for the other two, it’s highly questionable if these would have any kind of effect on the small, likely commercially available drone types that seem to have been encountered over Taiwan’s outlying islands. It is unlikely that UAVs of this type would be transmitting live audio let alone be equipped with radios able to transmit and receive voice communications.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA11fjXh.img?w=534&h=356&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-says-it-will-now-shoot-down-rogue-chinese-drones/ar-AA11f74n?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=042a09dd2c87a80c86efccc3f35c6e92&fullscreen=true#image=2)
NEW TAIPEI CITY, TAIWAN - JULY 27: A military drone is seen during the Han Kuang military exercise, which simulates China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) invading the island on July 27, 2022 in New Taipei City, Taiwan. Taiwan military launches a weeklong of live fire drills involving all forces of the military to repel simulated attacks from China. (Photo by Annabelle Chih/Getty Images)© Provided by The DriveIt should also be noted that while the Ministry of National Defense reportedly mentioned shooting down the rogue drones, this may well not involve using a gun or missile, or even a net-based system (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41093/check-out-the-anti-drone-weapons-carried-by-security-at-biden-meeting-in-brussels) to capture it. A range of other non-kinetic options (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41689/latest-coyote-drone-variant-defeats-drone-swarm-in-new-army-tests) are available that could similarly disable a UAV and cause it to crash.

A Sky Net (https://anti-drones.net/) anti-drone gun of the Republic of China Air Force during an anti-invasion drill in Chang-Hua, Taiwan, in May 2019. Photo by Patrick Aventurier/Getty Images

Also of particular interest is the fact that the latest announcement refers specifically to Taiwan’s outer islands, rather than the main island, around which Chinese manned aircraft of different kinds now also more regularly operate (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/record-breaking-68-chinese-warplanes-just-flew-into-the-taiwan-strait).
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA11fuaS.img?w=534&h=356&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-says-it-will-now-shoot-down-rogue-chinese-drones/ar-AA11f74n?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=042a09dd2c87a80c86efccc3f35c6e92&fullscreen=true#image=3)
CHANG-HUA, TAIWAN - MAY 28: Anti-drone gun of Taiwan Air Force during a anti-invasion drill on hight-way road in Chang-Hua on May 28, 2019 in Chang-Hua, Taiwan. The live firing was part of annual exercices designed to prove the military's capabilities to repel any Chinese attack. China and Taiwan split during a civil war in 1949, but China claims Taiwan island as its territory. (Photo by Patrick Aventurier/Getty Images)© Provided by The DriveIn particular, Chinese drone incursions have been taking place over the islands of Kinmen, also known as Quemoy, as well as the Matsu Islands. At their closest points, these are only around six miles from the coast of mainland China, but around 100 miles from the main island of Taiwan, making their defense extremely problematic. They have also long been the focus of Chinese military activity (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42544/the-legendary-sidewinder-missile-made-its-first-kill-over-the-taiwan-strait)at times of tension, up to and including artillery bombardment (https://taiwantoday.tw/news.php?unit=4&post=4657). With the close proximity of these islands to the mainland, they would likely be among the first to be seized in a wider conflict with Taiwan, or they may even be taken as part of a separate operation.

A map showing the general locations of the islands of Kinmen and Matsu, just off the coast of mainland China. Google Earth

That the Kinmen Islands, in particular, are experiencing a Chinese drone ‘problem’ had become abundantly clear by August 16, when a drone appeared (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/troops-throw-rocks-at-drone-over-taiwanese-island-close-to-chinese-coast) over the Lieyu Garrison Battalion on one of the islands of Kinmen.

The drone was variously described as belonging to the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) or Chinese civilians, but Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense confirmed that imagery filmed from the drone, which showed its sentries throwing rocks or other objects at the UAV, was genuine.


The Kinmen Defense Command told Taiwan News that the drone “quickly flew away.”

Since then, however, more video has emerged showing another similar incident (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4641040), also at a military lookout post in Kinmen’s Lieyu Township.

Again, first appearing on the Chinese Weibo social media platform, this video emerged on August 27 and shows Taiwanese troops scrambling to respond to the drone’s appearance. Soldiers are seen speaking into radios and pointing at the drone.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA11f741.img?w=534&h=286&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-says-it-will-now-shoot-down-rogue-chinese-drones/ar-AA11f74n?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=042a09dd2c87a80c86efccc3f35c6e92&fullscreen=true#image=4)

Provided by The Drive
The Kinmen Defense Command again said that the drone involved was a civilian model, and that warning flares were fired at it. However, as we have observed before (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/troops-throw-rocks-at-drone-over-taiwanese-island-close-to-chinese-coast), an apparently civilian drone doesn’t rule out at least some kind of connection to the Chinese military or intelligence services.


The Kinmen Defense Command has also confirmed 23 intrusions (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4641134) by Chinese drones over Kinmen County since the controversial visit to Taiwan by U.S. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi at the beginning of this month (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/worries-of-chinese-confrontation-as-pelosi-starts-asia-trip-that-could-include-taiwan).

Incursions even by smaller unmanned aircraft (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36085/troubling-drone-incursions-have-occurred-over-guams-thaad-anti-ballistic-missile-battery) could threaten sensitive areas on the islands of Kinmen and Matsu, both in peacetime and in a range of different conflict scenarios. At a basic level, their missions could include various types of surveillance, including testing reactions and response times of the defending Republic of China Armed Forces. At the same time, repeated incursions could also serve to tie up Taiwanese resources while providing a low-cost propaganda tool, apparently undermining Taiwanese defense efforts on the islands and highlighting their vulnerability to a Chinese invasion.

In a time of war in the Taiwan Strait, the PLA would almost certainly make use of its many different drone types (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinese-aircraft-carrier-seen-with-fleet-of-drones-onboard) and even smaller craft could potentially play a useful role, especially during the open stages of a conflict. They could be especially useful (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/34204/turkey-now-has-a-swarming-quadcopter-suicide-drone-that-it-could-export) in efforts to degrade air defense systems (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4760/meet-israels-suicide-squad-of-self-sacrificing-drones) that might be deployed on the islands, achieved both through the drone’s weight of numbers (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/37062/china-conducts-test-of-massive-suicide-drone-swarm-launched-from-a-box-on-a-truck), kinetic effects (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/40601/palestinian-militants-are-now-launching-suicide-drones-at-israel), and potentially through jamming (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36950/raf-tests-swarm-loaded-with-britecloud-electronic-warfare-decoys-to-overwhelm-air-defenses).

The very public nature of some of these recent incidents could well have prompted, in part, the Ministry of National Defense’s announcement of harsher measures against drones, although we don’t know when these are likely to start being enforced. Indeed, the ease with which these drones have apparently threatened the security of Taiwanese military facilities has resulted in much discussion (https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/taiwan-drone-08252022021615.html), including about the seriousness of Taipei’s plans to defend the outlying islands against potential Chinese aggression (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/china-makes-simulated-attack-on-taiwan).
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA11feLU.img?w=371&h=457&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-says-it-will-now-shoot-down-rogue-chinese-drones/ar-AA11f74n?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=042a09dd2c87a80c86efccc3f35c6e92&fullscreen=true#image=5)
Taiwan Says It Will Now Shoot Down Rogue Chinese Drones© Provided by The DriveA recent post on the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense Facebook page shows soldiers with a quadcopter drone superimposed and states that it will take “appropriate countermeasures immediately.” The nearest soldier appears to be armed with a flare gun, as used in recent drone encounters.

https://www.facebook.com/MilitarySpokesman/posts/pfbid022zf9hR47o6oixD5bjxPvF758v7RmPmxYReEq68BDEREMazqF9Ufry g8NtRQWt44zl A close-up of the apparent flare gun. Taiwanese Ministry of National Defense Facebook page

As for the forthcoming drone defense systems, these are directed at a broader set of threats since they are intended to address not just the outlying islands but will be installed at 45 facilities across Taiwan up to 2026, according to the Ministry of National Defense. The investment (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4641134) is expected to amount to $141 million.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA11f74b.img?w=534&h=335&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-says-it-will-now-shoot-down-rogue-chinese-drones/ar-AA11f74n?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=042a09dd2c87a80c86efccc3f35c6e92&fullscreen=true#image=6)
KINMEN, TAIWAN - MAY 25: Taiwan Marines Special Force during a anti-invasion drill in Kinmen island on May 25, 2019 in Kinmen, Taiwan. The live firing was part of annual exercices designed to prove the military's capabilities to repel any Chinese attack. China and Taiwan split during a civil war in 1949, but China claims Taiwan island as its territory.(Photo by Patrick Aventurier/Getty Images)© Provided by The DriveHowever, the particular vulnerability of the outlying islands is being addressed, with reports that military facilities in these locations will be “prioritized.” Next year, according to reports, Taiwan will acquire “five sets of drone defense systems and 232 jammer guns,” and it seems almost certain that at least some of them will be issued to units like those on Kinmen.

As long as civilian drones are being shot down, the potential for further escalation is probably limited. However, were Taiwan to shoot down a UAV belonging to the PLA, it’s unclear what the response from Beijing would be.

The drones seen in the recent video footage are clearly within Taiwanese airspace, but it’s easy to see how a drone skirting Taiwanese territory that was then shot down could lead to a serious international incident (https://stationhypo.com/2022/04/01/remembering-the-hainan-island-incident-2/). Furthermore, the nature of spy flights is such that opposing sides very frequently disagree (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44380/china-scorns-australias-claim-that-p-8-patrol-plane-was-targeted-by-chinese-laser) on where incidents take place as regards airspace ownership and appropriate response. With Beijing’s expansive claims over territory, the potential for such flashpoints only grows.

Special forces from the Republic of China Marine Corps during an anti-invasion drill in Kinmen island on May 25, 2019. Photo by Patrick Aventurier/Getty Images

Interestingly, it seems that, at least to some degree, Taiwan’s previous approach to drone incursions was based on demonstrating restraint, likely to reduce the chances of such misunderstandings.

Indeed, in the wake of the second Kinmen drone video, which emerged on August 27, the Kinmen Defense Command told Taiwan News that its forces had responded (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4641040) according to the principle of “not starting a war lightly and not escalating a conflict.” How shooting down a drone fits into this posture is not quite clear, but it’s easy to see how Beijing would view it as a hostile act. Furthermore, the loss of a drone could give Beijing a reason to adopt an even more aggressive posture in a time of already heightened tension.
Nevertheless, with the Chinese military’s use of drones having sharply increased in recent weeks, and especially with provocative drone flights over the outlying islands, whoever may be conducting them, it seems that Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has made the decision to take a harder line in the future. To what degree this is intended as a response to the current tensions and the related questions over national security, is unclear. Still, it appears that Taiwan is now generally taking the drone threat much more seriously.

[havoc]

Solomon Islands Suspends US Naval Visits as Tensions Rise (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/solomon-islands-suspends-us-naval-visits-as-tensions-rise/ar-AA11fMgt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=630e893c95b044659f99827ad5ceccee)

Taiwan fires warning shots at unidentified drone near islands (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-fires-warning-shots-at-unidentified-drone-near-islands/ar-AA11hQM7)

[Lonewolf_50]

A Sky Net (https://anti-drones.net/) anti-drone gun of the Republic of China Air Force during an anti-invasion drill in Chang-Hua, Taiwan, in May 2019. Photo by Patrick Aventurier/Getty Images
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA11fuaS.img?w=534&h=356&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/taiwan-says-it-will-now-shoot-down-rogue-chinese-drones/ar-AA11f74n?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=042a09dd2c87a80c86efccc3f35c6e92&fullscreen=true#image=3)

They will be Terminating the drones, eh?
Solomon Islands Suspends US Naval Visits as Tensions Rise (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/solomon-islands-suspends-us-naval-visits-as-tensions-rise/ar-AA11fMgt?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=630e893c95b044659f99827ad5ceccee)
China has been playing the long game. Looks like there has been a payoff.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/collinslkoh/status/1565101787027148801?s=21&t=bVGfg6j8Wp2v4P5gXHKL6A

JMSDF "arsenal ship" or cruiser? The new ships intended to supplant original Aegis Ashore plan will reportedly measure 210m in length, 40m width, possess 20,000 tons standard displacement, and armed with extended-range Type-12 ASCMs for land attack.

https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2022083100730&g=pol

[ORAC]

General Mick Ryan..

https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1565481192413048832?s=21&t=qGz-h1CxMu_BnWQJi-96Rg


This is a superb piece on the Chinese potential for building an invasion fleet for #Taiwan. It is well-referenced & full of useful insights.

Reassessing China’s Power Projection Capabilities Against Taiwan - @WarOnTheRocks

https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/hedging-with-humility-reassessing-chinas-power-projection-capabilities-against-taiwan/

HEDGING WITH HUMILITY: REASSESSING CHINA’S POWER PROJECTION CAPABILITIES AGAINST TAIWAN

[West Coast]

General Mick Ryan..



This is a superb piece on the Chinese potential for building an invasion fleet for #Taiwan. It is well-referenced & full of useful insights.

Reassessing China’s Power Projection Capabilities Against Taiwan - @WarOnTheRocks

https://warontherocks.com/2022/09/hedging-with-humility-reassessing-chinas-power-projection-capabilities-against-taiwan/

HEDGING WITH HUMILITY: REASSESSING CHINA’S POWER PROJECTION CAPABILITIES AGAINST TAIWAN

Thanks ORAC, a good read. I’m left a bit more pessimistic. That said, what’s not mentioned (nor should it have been, a strictly capabilities and planning document) is the sudden backlash and isolation by the world community, minus a few.

[tartare]

He's said it again:
https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/joe-biden-says-again-us-forces-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invaded-20220919-p5bj6b.html
I'm starting to wonder if this isn't a calculated strategy.
Boiling the frog so to speak...
Check here:
https://www.cbs.com/shows/video/x9VLGl2s_HqUoH2WeSLMahE59Y4gj9Dc/
...and specifically from 9'44" onwards - and 10'23" specifically.
Repeated twice for clarification.
That's not senility - it's undisclosed policy.

[golder]

If the 'world' gives Taiwan an independent nation status. It's a different story.
I find it hard to make a case when there is a 'One China' policy. If China owns Taiwan, it's an internal squabble. There are many examples in the world now. Then you have the nation vs nation fights. Put Israeli/Palestinians where you want to.

[Load Toad]

If the 'world' gives Taiwan an independent nation status. It's a different story.
I find it hard to make a case when there is a 'One China' policy. If China owns Taiwan, it's an internal squabble. There are many examples in the world now. Then you have the nation vs nation fights. Put Israeli/Palestinians where you want to.

The CCP says there is a 'One China Policy though historically even Mao said Taiwan should be independent (when the Japanese were in control of it. Otherwise, the USA only acknowledges that the CCP has a 'One China Policy' - it does not support it or agrees with it - the ambiguity is on purpose and made the most sense in the early 1970s at the height of the cold war. The Taiwanese position has evolved - pre-1949 there were indigenous Taiwanese, some Chinese and about 300K Japanese. So they would hardly see themselves as a part of China. After 1949 when the KMT retreated to Taiwan they saw the island as more of a temporary wartime capital until they retook China.
Now? Taiwan is progressive and democratic and has its own character - if its people want to be independent - or part of China - or part of anything else that is their choice and only their choice - not the Chinese Communist Party's choice.

[Less Hair]

If China moves (as is did with the latest military show next to Taiwan) the US moves, this seems to be the lesson intended here. It is either status quo as in "no side is moving" or sort of US diplomatic retaliation for unilateral moves. Taiwan is China but not communist China. Even chairman Mao is on the record to have confirmed "Formosa" to be independent.

[golder]

This is the position.
https://www.newsweek.com/which-countries-recognize-taiwan-independence-pelosi-trip-sparks-question-1731428#:~:text=The%20claims%20eventually%20prompted%20the,a s%20the%20official%20Chinese%20government.Consequently, Taiwan was given China's seat at the United Nations (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/united-nations) and was recognized by many U.N. nations. However, China's communist party, which continued to maintain ruling over mainland China, provided evidence that the nationalist government that fled to Taiwan was not the legitimate government of China because more than 98 percent of Chinese citizens lived on the mainland—around 540 million in 1950, compared to only 8 million in Taiwan.

The claims eventually prompted the U.N. to change its diplomatic recognition from the RoC in Taiwan to the People's Republic of China (PRC) on mainland China. As a result, the U.N. expelled Taiwan in 1971 and recognized the CCP/PRC as the official Chinese government.

Now, if any nation or political entity wants to establish diplomatic relations with the PRC, it must not officially recognize the RoC or Taiwan as independent, according to CNBC TV. This also applies to international organizations such as the U.N. and World Trade Organization.

[Asturias56]

it had become ridiculous 25% of mankind weren't represented at major forums, organisations and events,

If Taiwan had had the sense they'd have declared independence in the 60's and given their UN Security seat to China sometime later

[SASless]

Golder.....is that the same UN that puts certain Nations on the Human Rights Committee....that have unquestionable gross violations of the very protocols of the Committee they head? Just asking for a friend!

https://www.hrw.org/news/2016/10/25/un-violators-undermine-human-rights-council

[Lonewolf_50]

Had Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang not insisted on fooling themselves once they established themselves on Taiwan/Formosa, and had they chosen instead to declare themselves an independent nation, and had not the US been involved in a serious case of enabling behavior for Chiang for a couple of decades, Taiwan would already be an independent nation long since.
But that's not how it worked out. Counterfactuals: fun to play with, but in the end lacking substance.

[ORAC]

H I Sutton - Covert Shores (http://www.hisutton.com/China-Dry-Dock-Shanghai.html)

Chinese Navy Expansion: Yet Another Massive Dry Dock Takes Shape

The rate of Chinese warship production is impressive by any standards. A new Google Earth satellite image update of shipyards in Shanghai emphasises this. But while many eyes are on the new Type-003 Fujian Class aircraft carrier, and destroyers / cruisers, there is something else nearby. The latest image shows solid progress on a massive dry dock.

The dock, part of the Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard, is extremely large. More than large enough for an aircraft carrier. Provisional estimates, based on the visible retaining walls, put it at some 90 meters across and over 400 meters long. This is larger than another extremely large dry dock being built for Chinese carriers (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2020/12/beijing-upgrading-naval-bases-to-strengthen-grip-on-south-china-sea/) on Hainan.

The cofferdam is in place and the walls are starting to take shape. In particular the wall at the end, which allows us to estimate the final dimensions.

The new yard (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/03/chinese-navy-growth-massive-expansion-of-important-shipyard/) will also have a large basin for ships to be fitted out. The construction halls, which are also taking shape, match the dry dock in scale. The yard is massive and is expected to be used for warship construction. Large amphibious warships are the safest bet currently based on Hudong-Zhonghua's current activities.


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1080/image_9bd880fa35b008800271bfee14508d25e14cc8d2.jpeg

[Asturias56]

Looks like its designed for TWO carriers simultaneously

[ORAC]

Tainwan refines a Chinese “First-Strike” to include penetration into their territorial waters/airspace within 12nm and promise to respond accordingly.

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4677797

Taiwan defines Chinese military flights into airspace as '1st strike'

TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan's defense minister on Wednesday (Oct. 5) updated the country's definition of a "first strike" to include Chinese military aircraft and drones that intrude on the country's airspace……

The legislator requested confirmation that Taiwan still has a policy of not taking the "first shot" or launching the "first strike," but rather counterattacking after being struck first. Chiu replied by saying that in the past, an attack with artillery shells or missiles was considered a "first strike."

However, he said that "now the definition has obviously changed" as the PLA has started to deploy drones and other new weapons. Chiu said that the defense ministry has already adjusted the definition of "first strike" to mean any flight by Chinese military aircraft into Taiwan's airspace, which it defines as 12 nautical miles from its coast.

Referring to China's gray zone warfare tactics, Lo asked if an intrusion into Taiwan's airspace by an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is also a "first strike." Chiu agreed that a UAV incursion into Taiwan's airspace is also now considered a "first strike."…..

[Lonewolf_50]

Does this have an impact on China's position in re Taiwan? As I see it, removing any dissenting voices is a step toward making moves that are more bellicose ... but I've guessed wrongly before.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1583767306374590464

[henra]

Does this have an impact on China's position in re Taiwan? As I see it, removing any dissenting voices is a step toward making moves that are more bellicose ... but I've guessed wrongly before.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1583767306374590464
I consider it more a sign that Xi won the internal power struggle wthiin the CP. Which in itself I consider not being a good thing.
The risk for Taiwan will very much depend on whether Xi and the CCP can solve the internal problems China is facing. Demographics, Real Estate bubble burst, Economic problems, Covid.
If not, a war has sadly proven to be one of the absolute favourite (desperate) answers of dictators to crises they can't solve. Like Putin, Xi will want to go into the History Books for Greatness and not for decline (the former being about to having royally f**ked up in this regard).

[SASless]

As long as it remains an internal power struggle that does not lead to a more belligerent Chinese Military....no harm done.

We are seeing power struggles in a great many Western Nations currently.....shlould we look to our own first and ask how our own might affect our foreign policy re China?

The Chinese have played the "Long Game" for Centuries....and do not forget their long time conflict with Vietnam.....and we still see Vietnam independent.

If they can win economically....why would they want to resort to military aggression?

[Big Pistons Forever]

A system which concentrates all decision making at the very top and prizes personal fealty over competence is the exact opposite of the conditions necessary to have a military capable of joint and combined warfare against a credible Western or Westernized military. Spiffy kit means nothing without the Doctrine, Logistics, Training and C4I to go with it, as Russia has just shown.

I think the actual threat posed by the PLA is significantly overrated

[ORAC]

https://www.ft.com/content/271c0c93-eae0-4835-a9f9-882a1d0eb3b5

US to withdraw permanent F-15 fighter force from Okinawa

The US air force plans to replace its entire fleet of F-15 fighter jets based in Okinawa, Japan, with a “rotational” force, a shift that some American and Japanese officials worry will send a dangerous signal to China about deterrence.

The air force intends to retire two squadrons of ageing F-15 Eagles that have been permanently based in Okinawa, according to six people familiar with the situation. The decision has triggered alarm in some parts of the Japanese government and the Pentagon because the air force does not intend to replace them with a permanent presence in the near term.

The move will involve half of the roughly 100 air force fighters in Japan and is part of a modernisation programme. Critics are concerned about possible gaps that could weaken the ability to deter China.

“The message to China is the US is not serious about reversing the decline in its military forces,” said David Deptula, a retired F-15 pilot and former vice-commander of US Pacific Air Forces who blamed years of under-investment for a lack of aircraft. “This will encourage the Chinese to take more dramatic action.”…..

[tartare]

Fascinating new Mischief Reef close ups:
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinas-manmade-island-fortresses-like-youve-never-seen-them-before
How do they get those trees to grow in such a saline environment?
Or are they Potemkin Pines...

[India Four Two]

How do they get those trees to grow in such a saline environment?

On natural coral atolls, freshwater "lenses" float above the more dense seawater. I imagine the same thing is happening on these artificial atolls.

The fresh water comes from the frequent storms that occur during the rainy season, from April to October - the Southwest Monsoon.

[jolihokistix]

Amazing progress they’ve made on all those islands, “…to protect shipping in bad weather”. Inspiration for Putin’s little adventure? Thank you Tartare.

[megan]

US to withdraw permanent F-15 fighter force from Okinawa

That will make the local protesters happy, they've been up in arms since 1955 at least, trying to get the base closed down for decades.

[tartare]

On natural coral atolls, freshwater "lenses" float above the more dense seawater. I imagine the same thing is happening on these artificial atolls.

The fresh water comes from the frequent storms that occur during the rainy season, from April to October - the Southwest Monsoon.

Well there you go.
Everyday's a school day...

[ORAC]

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/japan-late-stage-talks-with-us-tomahawk-purchase-yomiuri-2022-10-28/

Japan in late-stage talks with U.S. for Tomahawk purchase -Yomiuri

TOKYO, Oct 28 (Reuters) - Japan is in the final stages of negotiations with the United States to buy U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles, the Yomiuri daily reported on Friday, citing multiple unnamed Japanese government sources.

Tomahawks can hit targets from more than 1,000 km (620 miles) away, putting parts of China and the Russian Far East within range…..

Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno said he was aware of the media report but refrained from commenting.

"The government is considering about counterattack capabilities but no specifics has been decided," he added…….

[ORAC]

Meanwhile, here in the UK….

https://twitter.com/samdunningo/status/1586670519285420033?s=61&t=2V4w3SUWNbybiR4c8SgZ7w


Much scrutiny lately of 'Chinese police stations' operating on the streets of Britain…

What links the 'stations' to British politics, the Chinese Communist Party, an assault in the heart of London, & serious organised crime?

This is big.

1/54

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1586670519285420033.html

[Asturias56]

"Serious organised crime"? Are we talking "traditional Chinese social institutions" here?

I heard years ago that there was an "understanding" - the law didn't look too closely as long as innocent people weren't disturbed - came after a gang burst into a restaurant in C London armed with cleavers etc and a pitched battle was fought around the customers (no serious injuries to the paying public but ...). In the good old days of Chairman Mao the TCSI's were a steady & reliable source of information on CCP activity in the UK and Europe I believe.

[ORAC]

New Taiwanese drone…….

https://twitter.com/stoa1984/status/1586841936194846721?s=61&t=2V4w3SUWNbybiR4c8SgZ7w



https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/865x539/image_a54cbe9bda3001d8d68796e1ac2b0e46815c7bdc.jpeg


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1080/image_a31faee1e26db972ba38faee5923791e42b9f508.jpeg

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times.
US deploys B-52 bombers to Australia as China tensions rise

(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/476dd00e-5906-11ed-962f-53da0c787308?shareToken=c0f9c0ef0aa7a7bf1671963084296d1d)The US will deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to a base near Australia’s northern coast, in a move that exacerbates tensions with Beijing.

The long-range heavy bombers, which have been operated by the US since the 1950s as part of the country’s strategic strike force and nuclear deterrent, will be stationed at the remote Australian air force Tindal base, about 190 miles south of Darwin, in the country’s Northern Territory.

The Chinese (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/china) foreign ministry in Beijing criticised the move, saying the deployment “severely destroys regional peace and stability, and could trigger a regional arms race”.

Click the link for the full article.

[golder]

It must be a good idea. China's having a dummy spit.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-31/china-slames-planned-deployments-of-b52-bombers-to-australia/101598442
China slams planned US Air Force deployment of six B-52 bombers to northern Australia

[Asturias56]

worth pointing out that that is over 4000 km from the nearest point on the Chinese Mainland.

If they were based in Estonia, Romania or Cyprus they'd be closer

[Buster Hyman]

Thank God we didn’t go with plan A and build military bases on Atolls then! Could you imagine how upset they’d be!

[Gnadenburg]

The original extension of RAAF Tindal was cited for max weight tanker operations ( which could have been done up the road at Darwin) The B52 op’s doesn’t appear to be a recent thought bubble at all. But part of a USAF strategy of dispersing their Pacific bomber operations for which Northern Australia sits perfectly for. As it did in WW2. Staging through Tindal, Darwin & Amberley, the USAF has the SW Pacific & beyond covered. Base hardening and long range SAM’s will be the next move. Most of which will be an Australian responsibility.

[rattman]

worth pointing out that that is over 4000 km from the nearest point on the Chinese Mainland.

If they were based in Estonia, Romania or Cyprus they'd be closer

Yeah I thats why I dont get the chinese anger at it. Theres a alot easier and closer places to US to stage bombers

[Less Hair]

The message is right: They create bases - we create bases.

[Asturias56]

It deepens the area the Chinese have to worry about - which is good

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/jesusfroman/status/1587707746165612544?s=61&t=_NVpo1LXJ7RvzirxVA4_Iw


New Light-vehicle mounting carrier Swarm weapon system with up to 18 loitering munitions in 🇨🇳Zhuhai Airshow.

The system is allegedly low-cost and modular. It can perform reconnaissance, area control, precision strike, cluster strike and damage assessment missions.


https://youtu.be/r3JKfNLxRPE

[ORAC]

About those Chinese artificial islands….

https://twitter.com/collinslkoh/status/1589345602504396801?s=61&t=tk2W6OUXqjJT5JKg3kwGiQ


All the hype about so-called "unsinkable aircraft carriers". Ever wondered why each of these outposts is so under-populated considering the infra can hold about a regiment of troops? Fact is that geomorphologically these artificial islands are unstable.…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1589345602504396801.html

[Asturias56]

Any earth scientist will tell you that artificial islands are unstable - because if God wanted an island there it would be there already . The issue is timing - "soon" to a geologist is normally 100-10,000 years. I'm pretty sure the Chinese would settle for 30. TBH I suspect they'll last longer than those expensive islands like the Palm off Dubai.

And of course in military terms a small N device exploded in the water a few miles away will cause a local tsunami that will solve all our (immediate) problems

[West Coast]

Article on the build up to an invasion of Taiwan.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/03/how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-pub-88053

[jolihokistix]

Article on the build up to an invasion of Taiwan.

https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/03/how-we-would-know-when-china-is-preparing-to-invade-taiwan-pub-88053

Caution re ‘the’ build up: The conclusion is that there are no signs of any build up.

[henra]

All the hype about so-called "unsinkable aircraft carriers". Ever wondered why each of these outposts is so under-populated considering the infra can hold about a regiment of troops? Fact is that geomorphologically these artificial islands are unstable.…

This plus the Russian success with their 'unsinkable' Outpost called Snake Island. Worked really well...

[Asturias56]

And of course the Japanese holding onto islands right through to 1945 when the US just by-passed them and went for the jugular

they're really sacrificial markers in ongoing, low -level arguments with surrounding countries - in any sort of warm war they're sitting ducks.

[Lonewolf_50]

Speaking of Islands, VP Harris is visiting the Philippines. US seeks expansion of military presence in Philippines
By JIM GOMEZ ASSOCIATED PRESS • November 21, 2022
MANILA, Philippines — The United States is seeking an expansion of its military presence in the Philippines under a 2014 defense pact, U.S. and Philippine officials said, one of the initiatives that will be discussed during Vice President Kamala Harris's visit that focuses on the defense of its treaty ally in the face of China's sweeping territorial claims.

Harris will hold talks with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and other officials on Monday during a two-day visit that will include a trip to western Palawan province facing the disputed South China Sea, which Beijing claims virtually in its entirety. She was expected to reaffirm U.S. commitment to defend the Philippines under the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty in case Filipino forces, ships and aircraft come under attack in the disputed waters.

"The United States and the Philippines stand together as friends, partners, and allies," a statement issued by Harris's aides said. "Now and always, the U.S. commitment to the defense of the Philippines is ironclad."

A range of U.S. assistance and projects would also be launched by Harris to help the Philippines deal with climate change and looming energy and food shortages.
Reuters news agency reported dozens of protesters rallied Monday against the visit by Harris, saying the Philippines should not be dragged into U.S. and Chinese rivalry.

"We don't want our country to be used as a pin board or launching pad of the wars of the United States against China or any other country," Liza Maza, an official of the International League of People's Struggle, told Reuters.
-----skip a bit-----

In 2014, the longtime allies signed the Enhance Defense Cooperation Agreement, which allows larger numbers of American forces to stay in rotating batches within Philippine military camp, where they could build warehouses, living quarters, joint training facilities and store combat equipment, except nuclear arms. The Philippines could take over those buildings and facilities when the Americans leave. After the agreement was signed, the Americans launched construction projects in five Philippine camps and areas, including in the country's south, where U.S counterterrorism forces have helped train and provide intelligence to their Filipino counterparts for years. Many of the projects were delayed by legal issues and other problems, Philippine defense officials said.

[havoc]

Chinese coast guard seizes rocket debris from Filipino navy (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinese-coast-guard-seizes-rocket-debris-from-filipino-navy/ar-AA14lm0f?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=f724421a8293405c8be382eb872109d0)
MANILA, Philippines (AP) — China's coast guard forcibly seized apparent Chinese rocket debris that was being towed by the Philippine navy, in the latest confrontation in the disputed South China Sea, a Philippine military commander said Monday.

The Chinese vessel twice blocked the Philippine naval boat before seizing the debris it was towing Sunday off Philippine-occupied Thitu island, Vice Admiral Alberto Carlos said. He said no one was injured in the incident.China denied there was a forcible seizure and said the debris, which it confirmed was from a Chinese rocket launch, was handed over by Philippine forces after a “friendly consultation.”

It was the latest flareup in long-seething territorial disputes in the strategic waterway involving China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan.

Chinese coast guard ships have blocked Philippine supply boats delivering supplies to Filipino forces in the disputed waters in the past but seizing objects in the possession of another nation's military constitutes a more brazen act.

Carlos said the Filipino sailors, using a long-range camera on Thitu island, spotted the debris drifting in strong waves near a sandbar about 800 yards (540 meters) off shore. They set out on a boat and retrieved the floating object and started to tow it back to the island.

As they were traveling back to the island, “they noticed that a China coast guard vessel with bow number 5203 was approaching their location and subsequently blocked their pre-plotted course twice,” Carlos said in a statement.

The Chinese coast guard vessel then deployed an inflatable boat with personnel who “forcefully retrieved said floating object by cutting the towing line" attached to the Filipino sailors’ rubber boat. The sailors decided to return to their island, Carlos said, without detailing what happened.

Maj. Cherryl Tindog, spokesperson of the military's Western Command, said the floating metal object appeared similar to a number of other pieces of Chinese rocket debris recently found in Philippine waters. She added that the Filipino sailors did not resist the seizure.

“We practice maximum tolerance in such a situation,” Tindog told reporters. “Since it involved an unidentified object and not a matter of life and death, our team just decided to return.”

In Beijing, China's Foreign Ministry denied that the debris was seized forcibly.

“The Philippine side salvaged and towed the object first. After friendly consultation at the site, the Philippine side returned the object to China, and China expressed appreciation for that,” ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said. “There was no such thing as interception or forcible seizure at the scene.”

Metal debris (https://apnews.com/article/space-launches-science-china-philippines-manila-6e838901fff88c4b20e86219c4102489) from Chinese rocket launches, some showing part of what appeared to be a Chinese flag, has been found in Philippine waters in at least three other instances.

Rockets launched from the Wenchang Space Launch Center on China’s Hainan island in recent months have carried construction materials and supplies for China's crewed space station (https://apnews.com/article/space-launches-science-china-420dacda17da4816dc45c41c0ba8e030).

China has been criticized previously for allowing rocket stages to fall to Earth uncontrolled. The Philippine Space Agency earlier this month pressed for the Philippines to ratify U.N. treaties providing a basis for compensation for harm from other nations' space debris, and NASA accused Beijing last year of “failing to meet responsible standards regarding their space debris” after parts of a Chinese rocket landed in the Indian Ocean.

The Philippine government has filed many diplomatic protests against China over aggressive actions in the South China Sea but it did not immediately say what action it would take following Sunday's incident. The Department of Foreign Affairs in Manila would usually wait for an official investigation report before lodging a protest.

Thitu island, which Filipinos call Pag-asa, hosts a fishing community and Filipino forces and lies near Subi, one of seven disputed reefs in the offshore region that China has turned into missile-protected islands, including three with runways, which U.S. security officials say now resemble forward military bases.

The Philippines and other smaller claimant nations in the disputed region, backed by the United States and other Western countries, have strongly protested and raised alarm over China’s increasingly aggressive actions in the busy waterway.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris, who is visiting Manila, was scheduled to fly to the western province of Palawan, which faces the South China Sea, on Tuesday to underscore American support to the Philippines and renew the U.S. commitment to defend its longtime treaty ally if Filipino forces, ships and aircraft come under attack in the disputed waters.

[ORAC]

Their failures in, probably, letting Covid loose, and in trying to eliminate it rather than vaccinate against it, may yet bring down the Chinese government - as it is their economy…

https://twitter.com/david__moser/status/1596519192198406144?s=61&t=BWpcXYLUeQza3t0nETpKxg



I've lived in China for 30 years, and I've never seen such a brazenly open and sustained expression of rage against the PRC govt. WeChat is exploding with protest videos and furious vitriol, and civil disobedience is becoming rampant. This is a serious test of CCP governance.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/peterfrankopan/status/1596598569037070336?s=61&t=vGsguNhpdDj9DhvV_AkarA


Most serious moment since Tiananmen in 89. Hard to see the genie get put back in the bottle. A soft touch needed; a hammer much more likely to come next. And then who knows…..

People were shouting: “Down with the Communist Party! “Down with Xi Jinping!” “We want freedom!”
​​​​​​​
Every of these slogans is enough to send a person to jail for 10 years or even a life risk.…

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/27/anti-lockdown-protests-spread-across-china-amid-growing-anger-at-zero-covid-strategy

Anti-lockdown protests spread in China as anger rises over zero-Covid strategy

Protests against China’s stringent Covid restrictions have intensified, as a wave of civil disobedience triggered by a deadly fire in the far west reached levels in the mainland not seen since Xi Jinping (https://www.theguardian.com/world/xi-jinping) assumed power a decade ago.….