The South China Sea's Gathering Storm [Archive] - Page 7

Lyneham Lad

21st Dec 2022, 11:46

In The Times today.

Indian army masses on Chinese border after soldiers clash (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/088e2d2a-808e-11ed-ab78-11b70ed96428?shareToken=4e23437a25b0bbff0675fbd2ad347793)

Snippet:-
India has moved an “unprecedented” number of troops to the disputed border with China after a clash between soldiers of the two nuclear-armed rivals.

Indian foreign minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar revealed that Delhi was mobilising thousands of troops along the mountainous 2,100-mile border, following an “encroachment” by Chinese forces that triggered a skirmish with Indian troops 12 days ago (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indian-soldiers-repel-chinese-troops-on-disputed-border-0f9t2mptx).

The powers have been locked in a standoff along the border for more than two years, since China crossed the border to seize strategic positions in the disputed region of Ladakh in 2020, sparking a pitched battle (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-times-view-on-clashes-between-india-and-china-border-brawl-r3hdppnx7) that left 20 Indian troops and at least four Chinese soldiers dead (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/four-chinese-martyrs-killed-by-indian-troops-are-honoured-vs00vfm8g).

“Today we have a deployment of the Indian army on the China border that we have never had. It is done in order to counter Chinese deployment, which has which has been scaled up massively since 2020,” Jaishankar said in Delhi on Monday.

In the latest clash, the first major confrontation for more than a year, up to 400 Chinese troops entered the town of Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, on the northeastern tip of India, on December 9. China considers the area part of Tibet and claims the territory as its own.
Indian officials claimed their troops had repelled the incursion after a clash that left soldiers on both sides with minor injuries. The situation remains volatile, however, as China steps up its military presence on the border, probing for weaknesses and moving tanks and artillery up to the frontier. The Indian Air Force said last week that it had detected heightened Chinese “air activity” in the region, forcing it to deploy combat aircraft at least twice this month.

Asturias56

21st Dec 2022, 14:32

they haven't said how many of course - and ts the middle of winter so not likely to be vast numbers

the statement seems to be more to counteract some statement by the Indian opposition than the Chinese this week

Tawang has always been claimed by the Chinese even tho they did capture then withdraw from it in the 1962 War

chopper2004

24th Dec 2022, 01:02

Few months back, it was reported that commercial satellite image from desert area in China picked up a very large hangar being constructed …(akin to Groom Lake, Area 51 standards) and rumored that the PLAAF may be toying with a large aerostat.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/41462/gigantic-hangar-near-secretive-chinese-test-facilities-points-to-exotic-airship-development

now it transpires, there has been such a sighting off the Philippines

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/was-a-high-altitude-airship-spotted-recently-near-the-south-china-sea?fbclid=IwAR2e3qUN9ZDjbZH4T0v0vtvFrZrHqwMx9pkVDEZHJr4gVIf 8oSCmMdqoYVw

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1210/5a9cf98d_7956_4db5_99c3_2bf325c39568_bb29debf3f90d86fc59d0d8 0aeff76279605b7a1.jpeg

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/956x1280/184a413b_0180_442b_9bc6_c9b564477d58_9d7093de226c18fd776727c 069fa502947f834e9.jpeg

Lyneham Lad

30th Dec 2022, 11:43

In The Times this afternoon.

Chinese fighter jet gets within metres of US military aircraft (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/fe72719a-882e-11ed-bb21-8f4d97ec7b02?shareToken=a1e545d27312a17e4a3f3c73c6ada287)

A Chinese fighter jet flew within six metres of a US military aircraft flying over the disputed South China Sea last week in what America denounced as an “unsafe manoeuvre”.

In the latest of a series of tense encounters, a Chinese Navy J-11 fighter jet intercepted a US Air Force reconnaissance plane with about 30 people on board.

The American RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft was forced into “evasive manoeuvres to avoid a collision,” according to Indo-Pacific Command, responsible for overseeing US military operations in the region.

It added that the RC-135 was “lawfully conducting routine operations” in international airspace at the time of the interception last Wednesday.

Footage released by the US military shows the American aircraft maintaining its course and speed as the J-11 — based on the Russian Su-27 twin-engined jet — flies alongside and comes very close to its nose.

Click the link for photo/video and remainder of the article.

fitliker

30th Dec 2022, 15:18

Makes you wonder if one of the new trainers was watching Top Gun and decided to Maverick them ? Although Maverick claimed to interdict inverted .
Too close for missiles , switching to handbags

Ninthace

30th Dec 2022, 19:14

Clearly a Chinese pilot, used to looking over his shoulder.

jolihokistix

3rd Jan 2023, 07:26

Good background to China’s WZ-7 high altitude drone and how it liaises with its aircraft carrier group.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/japanese-fighters-intercept-chinas-high-flying-wz-7-drone-for-first-time

ORAC

6th Jan 2023, 21:53

https://twitter.com/faytuks/status/1611452385343459328?s=61&t=9iJrBi98p7fooMrUcohN_Q

Japanese defense officials are weighing a plan to build dozens of ammunition and weapons depots closer to Taiwan in preparation for a potential Taiwan crisis - Nikkei.

The new depots will be located in the Nansei Islands, which include Okinawa and extend toward Taiwan from the southern tip of Japan's southernmost island of Kyushu. The government will begin discussions with local authorities and residents on the proposed islands.

The plans also call for deploying standoff missiles in the Nansei Islands to provide counterstrike capability against threats to Japan.

https://t.co/fhad4pdai8

gums

6th Jan 2023, 22:17

Salute!

Thnx for update, ORAC, but the biggest prize is not Taiwan but Guam or bases in the Philippines. Guam is the most important, with the other island bases there.

Okinawa is also important to the Japanese, and more than Taiwan IMHO.

Gonna be an interesting next decade over in the Pacific.

Gums opines...

rattman

6th Jan 2023, 22:41

Japanese defense officials are weighing a plan to build dozens of ammunition and weapons depots closer to Taiwan in preparation for a potential Taiwan crisis - Nikkei.

Also looks like they will be retiring their 99 M270's as well

https://twitter.com/rockfish31/status/1611297451901878272

Asturias56

7th Jan 2023, 07:27

"but the biggest prize is not Taiwan but Guam or bases in the Philippines. Guam is the most important, with the other island bases there.
Okinawa is also important to the Japanese, and more than Taiwan IMHO."

I think, from a straight military view you are correct. But Taiwan is NOT a military issue to the Chinese - it's very basic, visceral, politics (we all know the background).

They're unrelated in the Chinese mind I suspect

henra

7th Jan 2023, 07:50

But Taiwan is NOT a military issue to the Chinese - it's very basic, visceral, politics (we all know the background).

They're unrelated in the Chinese mind I suspect
Indeed! Their interest in Taiwan is not due to a military strategic background. It's not a lever for them. For them it's the (historic) main price and they are looking for levers to gain this target or how to eliminate levers for the 'other side'.

West Coast

9th Jan 2023, 08:00

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/09/politics/taiwan-invasion-war-game-intl-hnk-ml/index.html

Let’s hope this remains theoretical only.

Lyneham Lad

11th Jan 2023, 18:30

In The Times.
US sends anti-ship missiles to Japan as threat from China grows (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/7599da24-919e-11ed-beb4-99fcdfa7645c?shareToken=7ead264aaa8bfecff131eb9aa5c031be)

Snippet:-
The United States is to deploy Marines armed with anti-ship missiles to a new rapid reaction force in Japan, in the latest move to deter China from attacking small Japanese islands or launching an invasion of Taiwan.The deployment of the Marine Littoral Regiment (MLR) in the southern Japanese island of Okinawa will be announced today after a meeting in Washington by the US and Japanese foreign and defence ministers.

It comes in advance of a summit between President Biden (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/joe-biden?page=1) and Fumio Kishida, the Japanese prime minister, in which they will commit themselves to a new approach to regional security that will result in a doubling of Tokyo’s defence budget.
Click the link for the details & photos etc.

ORAC

13th Jan 2023, 07:54

https://warontherocks.com/2023/01/japans-shift-to-war-footing/

Japan’s Shift to War Footing

Lonewolf_50

26th Jan 2023, 02:50

Maybe some people are preparing to fight the wrong war.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/01/25/battery-energy-transition-geopolitics-china-electric-vehicles/
Full article in the spoiler.
In the quest for the clean energy revolution, the United States is one of many countries that have ramped up investment in electric vehicles manufacturing and renewable energy sources to power the shift away from fossil fuels.

But that is an industry that has already been staked out by another power: China. After a decadeslong push, Beijing wields considerable control over supply chains for lithium-ion batteries, which are critical to everything from electric cars to smartphones. That dominance has transformed those powerful batteries—and the key metals they comprise of—into a thorny geopolitical flash point during a period of heightened tensions.

“China is the dominant player across the supply chain for almost all of these critical minerals,” said Morgan Bazilian, director of the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines and a former lead energy specialist at the World Bank. “That happens to feed into one of the only roughly bipartisan areas of agreement in the United States, which is that we’re in some sort of economic war with China.”

Forged from critical minerals—including lithium, nickel, cobalt, and manganese—lithium-ion batteries can hold considerable energy (https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/06/business/lithium-mining-race.html), making them crucial to efforts to swap out fossil fuels for cleaner alternatives. “Any really serious move towards decarbonizing energy and transportation systems is going to require a massive increase in the amount of battery capacity that’s out there,” said Cullen Hendrix, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

As demand for electric vehicles skyrockets, nations have been scrambling to tap the riches in the ground for these batteries. Global sales of electric vehicles doubled in 2021 from the previous year, according to the International Energy Agency (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ad8fb04c-4f75-42fc-973a-6e54c8a4449a/GlobalElectricVehicleOutlook2022.pdf). That explosion was largely driven by China, where roughly one-quarter (https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/21/china-electric-vehicles-tesla-byd/) of all new car sales were electric or hybrid.

To power the energy transition in the coming decades, these battery inputs will become even more pivotal. The World Bank has projected (https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/961711588875536384/Minerals-for-Climate-Action-The-Mineral-Intensity-of-the-Clean-Energy-Transition.pdf) that billions of tons of minerals could be necessary to supply clean energy technology by 2050.

The bulk of these raw materials can be found in a handful of mineral-rich nations. Indonesia, for instance, produces (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a86b480e-2b03-4e25-bae1-da1395e0b620/EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2023.pdf) 40 percent of the world’s nickel while lithium—sometimes dubbed “white gold”—is largely sourced from Australia and the so-called lithium triangle (https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/17/lithium-triangle-mining-prices-electric-batteries-south-america-economy/) in South America. Some 70 percent (https://www.iea.org/reports/the-role-of-critical-minerals-in-clean-energy-transitions/reliable-supply-of-minerals) of the world’s cobalt comes from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where the mining industry has a dirty underbelly of human rights abuses (https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/07/14/child-labor-and-human-rights-violations-mining-industry-democratic-republic-congo) and reports of child labor. Mining for graphite, a key component in batteries, is overwhelmingly done in China.

Once dug up, the ore needs to be refined and processed—and that’s where Beijing dominates across the board. “China has, in a lot of senses, become the world’s foundry for the processing of a variety of different minerals,” Hendrix said.

That is the product of Beijing’s deliberate, decadeslong effort to build up its own industry, Bazilian added. “China decided that minerals and metals were going to play a big role in the future of energy and defense and began to make investments across supply chains” for raw materials, processing, and battery manufacturing, he said. “It wasn’t an overnight decision.”

The result has rattled policymakers in Washington, where heightened tensions with China have fueled concerns that Beijing could leverage its influence for geopolitical ends—as it has before. Most recently, Russia’s tightening chokehold on Europe’s natural gas supply showcased the dangers of economic over-dependence on political foes. That “is the freshest reminder of the importance of diversifying supply chains,” said Jane Nakano, an energy security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

It’s not just in battery supply chains where China plays a commanding role either. Across a spate of clean energy technologies—including wind power and solar panels—Beijing’s manufacturing and trade capacity have eclipsed much of the world’s, according to the International Energy Agency (https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/a86b480e-2b03-4e25-bae1-da1395e0b620/EnergyTechnologyPerspectives2023.pdf).

“China definitely understands its dominance in this industry and could decide to flip the switch at any point,” said Sam Howell, who researches technology and national security at the Center for a New American Security. “The scary part is that there’s no simple or short-term fix for the U.S.”

But Ilaria Mazzocco, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, cautioned against seeing China’s dominance in battery production as a national security threat simply because Beijing is involved. Unlike semiconductor chips, which can be used in weapons of mass destruction, she said, batteries used in clean technology don’t have the same national security implications.

“There’s an over-securitization of clean energy technologies,” Mazzocco said. “We’re at a point where everything becomes national security.” It’s important to incentivize the development of these industries not for national security reasons, she said, but for reasons related to the economy and climate change.

The Biden administration, meanwhile, has been ramping up investments in battery manufacturing, pouring billions of dollars (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/10/19/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-driving-u-s-battery-manufacturing-and-good-paying-jobs/) into the industry and pledging to ensure that electric vehicles account for half of all new vehicle sales in 2030. Although it will likely take decades to make a significant dent in China’s supply chain share, experts stress that the world is still at the beginning of an energy transition—and many countries are in it for the long haul.

“China has a head start,” said Kwasi Ampofo, the head of metals and mining at BloombergNEF, “but it’s still unclear if we can call China a winner because we are still in the early stage of a transition.”

Maybe the war is economic.

ORAC

30th Jan 2023, 08:20

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/war-with-china-in-two-years-top-us-general-warns-8j5kl03hq

War with China in two years, top US general warns

China accused a senior American general of being “reckless” after he said the superpowers would be at war within two years.

In a stark warning about the chance of conflict over President Xi’s determination to seize Taiwan, General Mike Minihan, who oversees the US Air Force’s fleet of transport and refuelling aircraft, said: “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me [we] will fight in 2025.”

In the memo obtained by NBC News, Minihan told operational commanders to make ready for combat. “Xi secured his third term and set his war council in October 2022,” he said. “Taiwan’s presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a reason. US presidential elections are in 2024 and will offer Xi a distracted America. Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025.”…..

An air force spokeswoman, Major Hope Cronin, verified the memo’s authenticity, saying it “builds on last year’s foundational efforts by Air Mobility Command to ready forces for future conflict, should deterrence fail”.

A US defence official, meanwhile, told The Washington Post that Minihan’s comments “are not representative of the department’s view on China”. It reported that before taking over at Air Mobility Command in 2021, Minihan served in a variety of influential roles in the Pacific beginning in 2013.

They include a stint as the deputy commander of Indo-Pacific Command, with purview of China and Taiwan, from September 2019 to August 2021……

Last year Admiral Mike Gilday, chief of the US naval operations, also raised the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait. “When we talk about the 2027 window [when China should build capability to seize Taiwan], in my mind that has to be 2022 or potentially 2023,” he said…….

jolihokistix

30th Jan 2023, 08:35

As early as the 1920s in the USA the idea of war with Japan was being bandied about. The various scenarios began to take on a life of their own, and to bring on the very thing that people feared.

GlobalNav

30th Jan 2023, 19:46

Load Toad

31st Jan 2023, 03:00

As early as the 1920s in the USA the idea of war with Japan was being bandied about. The various scenarios began to take on a life of their own, and to bring on the very thing that people feared.

Not really - Japan realised it wasn't going to be seen as an equal partner with 'Western Empires' after the Versailles Treaty in 1919...it was granted the German territories in China - it also realised having few natural resources it would need an expansionist policy (certainly the hawks in the military thought so if the government of Japan didn't). The situation in China meant conflict was inevitable and the expansionist theory would certainly bring Japan into conflict with the British, Dutch, French and Americans. And so it transpired - the US sided with the Chinese over the conflict there and the Japanese orchestrated a reason to step up military matters throughout China and S E Asia. If the Americans wouldn't give Japan the fuels it needed - it'd have to go out and grab them & to a certain extent the idea of 'Asia for the Asians' looked attractive to some countries that were under colonial government

WW1 never ended - it just rolled on and on.

jolihokistix

31st Jan 2023, 03:19

My apologies, too simplistic, and yes of course, all of the above is true, but among the trends at the time was this yellow-peril hysteria in the western press only helping to split off the Japanese into a stereoyped 'us and them' separate entity that the J military were only too happy to take advantage of, and the populace to fall right into.

My point (admittedly weakly put) was that with the benefit of such hindsight I hope we do not fall into the same pattern with 'the Chinese', and as the good US General Minihan above, bring forwards a situation by delineating it too clearly and too publicly. Forewarned is of course forearmed, so I agree that we need to be ready for any sudden-move scenario concerning Taiwan.

ORAC

7th Feb 2023, 15:15

BREAKING: The U.S. military has notified Congress that China now has more land-based intercontinental-range missile launchers than the US - WSJ

https://t.co/0IqtNTTWPM

Lonewolf_50

7th Feb 2023, 16:48

Gee, we have a new missile gap. :} Deja vu, all over again.

ORAC

7th Feb 2023, 20:06

I think that means the US triad is sub-standard, if you see what I mean…

henra

8th Feb 2023, 18:44

I think that means the US triad is sub-standard, if you see what I mean…
Not quite, yet.
China has <<1000 Nuclear Warheads, the US has >5000.
Conventionally the Chinese Armed Forces are surely the closest competitor to the US. On the Nuclear side of things Russia is pretty much on par with to the US, whereas China is more in the order of magnitude of combined Western Europe (UK + France + Nuclear Sharing Italy, Germany, Turkye)

Lonewolf_50

9th Feb 2023, 03:23

I think that means the US triad is sub-standard, if you see what I mean… I see what you did there. :ok:

ORAC

7th Mar 2023, 11:10

China effectively declaring war on SpaceX and Starlink….

https://www.pprune.org/space-flight-operations/651701-china-declares-war-starlink.html#post11397024

minigundiplomat

7th Mar 2023, 12:21

If we are going to have a war with China, can we wait until Biden, Trudeau, Sunak, Macron, Albanese and whoever replaced St Jacinda to move on and be replaced by those with some level of competence?

Asturias56

7th Mar 2023, 16:39

really odd that they got elected when you think about it.

Lets have a lunatic who schmoozed NK and Putin

West Coast

7th Mar 2023, 19:10

really odd that they got elected when you think about it.

Lets have a lunatic who schmoozed NK and Putin

By all mean, let’s continue the present path with containing the Norks as it’s been so successful.

tartare

10th Mar 2023, 23:04

Lots of sound and fury down here as the Sydney Morning Herald publishes a series of stories `Red Alert' about `...the coming war with China in three years.'
"Irresponsible, warmongering, sensationalist etc etc." usual bleating - and also as usual - rent a crazy quote or two from Paul Keating, a once great man who's now totally out of touch.
I wonder if the situation we may face in 2027 might in fact be a Cuba crisis redux - but this time on steroids.
China blockades Taiwan, amasses an invasion fleet, puts it's nuclear weapons on alert and finds itself surrounded by the west and allies, also with nuclear weapons cocked.
We face a week, or two, or three of terrifying, sleepless nights wondering if the world will end - then they see sense and back down (that being a considerable oversimplifcation of what happened back then).
The resolution may be in the hands of some future diplomat who has to find a concession for the Chinese to do so, while saving face...

Big Pistons Forever

11th Mar 2023, 00:49

The next war will start when the ISI wackadoodles in Pakistan lob some nukes into India, who then return the favour and then all hell brakes loose...

Asturias56

11th Mar 2023, 07:12

By all mean, let’s continue the present path with containing the Norks as it’s been so successful.

To be fair we've been trying for 70 years and no-one has had much success under any US president, The issue is that the Family Kim have a clear, simple and ruthless policy of self-preservation for themselves. No-one else is quite as clear or commiited to getting shot of them. The price is too high for us- no-one will pay it.

ORAC

6th Apr 2023, 05:43

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/06/new-zealand-spy-chiefs-warn-of-increasingly-aggressive-foreign-interference

New Zealand spy chiefs warn of ‘increasingly aggressive’ foreign interference

New Zealand’s intelligence bosses have warned of “increasingly aggressive activity” in the country by people they believe are spies for foreign states.

The annual report (https://www.nzsis.govt.nz/assets/NZSIS-Documents/NZSIS-Annual-Reports/2021-22-NZSIS-Annual-Report.pdf) by the Security Intelligence Service (SIS), published this week, said unnamed states are making “enduring and persistent” efforts to collect intelligence against New Zealand’s government, target those with access to sensitive information, and interfere in all spheres of the country’s public life. Agents from one foreign government have cultivated “a range of relationships of significant concern”, the report said.

It did not name the countries accused, but analysts said New Zealand’s strategic importance in the Pacific, as well as growing global awareness of its politics, had attracted the ire of authoritarian leaders such as China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin…..

The SIS credited increased information-sharing with both domestic and foreign government agencies as the reason it had identified “previously unknown individuals of security concern” in the past year. In the case of the group of alleged agents from a single country – subjects of a long-running investigation, the SIS said – information was collected that helped “inform a specific decision that involved those individuals and their associates.”

The report did not give more details…..

There have been few publicly documented cases of foreign interference in New Zealand. In March, a senior public servant took the unusual step of telling reporters he had lost his job (https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131441881/senior-government-analyst-accused-of-reporting-to-chinese-government-by-security-intelligence-service) after being accused of spying for China. The SIS did not comment on the claim.

Before New Zealand’s 2017 election, a lawmaker’s undeclared past connections to the Chinese Communist party (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/13/china-born-new-zealand-mp-yang-jian-denies-being-a-spy) raised questions about Beijing’s influence in Wellington and candidate vetting for political parties…..

Xeptu

8th Apr 2023, 23:02

West Coast

8th Apr 2023, 23:41

we already know China is no serious threat I’ll remove myself from the “we” as depending on who you are, China poses a serious threat imo.

MechEngr

8th Apr 2023, 23:58

ChrisVJ

9th Apr 2023, 00:03

Unlike Russia which has turned out to be all smoke and mirrors, we already know China is no serious threat despite its sabre rattling and our medias response to that.
China is a manufacturer of just about everything for export to Europe and the US, in order to do that it must import just about everything, including energy from Russia. If China were to attack a western country, all of that would be cut off on day one. It would have to do it by sea, it has one aircraft carrier still being commissioned, how many of those troop carrying vessels would make it to their landing points.do you think. Maybe in another couple of decades which is still unlikely since we in the western world are pulling out of China. China is in serious economic trouble because of its visions of military grandeur and sabre rattling.

The problem is that the calculation of a successful military venture by dictators is mostly erroneous so the suggested deterrents to action by China probably don't weight very heavily on the 'Go/No go' scales over there.

Shutting off all trade with China would bring a deal of pain to the West as well as China. They are already nibbling, (Pacific Islands.) Sooner or later they will think they can take a little bit bigger nibble.

judyjudy

9th Apr 2023, 00:15

Especially with their attitude towards Taiwan.

”Is that a threat?”

”No, it’s a promise.”

Uncle Fred

9th Apr 2023, 00:44

China is an economic threat because corporate America handed them all the required tools. The corporations could do that because they bought enough legislators and even a President to make sure it happened. Now the corporations are strip mining American wealth to invest even more in the growing Chinese economy and the legislators are making sure that continues to happen. On top of that US universities welcomed full-price foreign students, which also allowed tuition and student housing inflation, to train as competitors to the US to go back to China with top American technology insights.

The serious threat to the US is the US and the US alone.

If there is consideration for military threat from China - that won't happen until the US corps have drained the most they can from the US economy.

Even on the eastern side of the Atlantic one could hear the lamentations of the corporations doling out reasons why they had to be 'players' in the China market. You are undoubtedly knowledgeable about this long list...all smudged over with the guarantee that by taking their business to China it would nourish the roots of a budding democracy.

Selling out the technical and proprietary secrets and knowledge just for the access to the market will, of course, go down as one of the stupidest moves of 20th and 21st century corporate history.

i don't throw too many stones however, as Europe has a trotter in the trough on this as well.

Xeptu

9th Apr 2023, 01:45

Shutting off all trade with China would bring a deal of pain to the West as well as China. They are already nibbling, (Pacific Islands.) Sooner or later they will think they can take a little bit bigger nibble.

We in the west have been withdrawing from China since Covid broke out, there are some companies like apple that cannot withdraw quickly, because all of it's assembly platforms, not to be confused with manufacturing, are in China. I would be surprised if any of the big names are still in China beyond 2026.
When our company pulled out it was because China banned our products because our government had the audacity to ask for an investigation into the origin's of covid. It hurt, it hurt alot we had to mothball, decommission or repurpose about 30% of our infrastructure. Two years on they want to trade again, well no chance in hell, we will not invest again regardless of what our government has to say about that. There are many companies doing the same globally, building their infrastructure back home. China is in trouble, Huge, we can see it happening already, by 2026 China will be lucky to survive in it's current economy and it doesn't have anything else to trade, unlike Russia.

fineline

9th Apr 2023, 08:19

We in the west have been withdrawing from China since Covid broke out, there are some companies like apple that cannot withdraw quickly, because all of it's assembly platforms, not to be confused with manufacturing, are in China. I would be surprised if any of the big names are still in China beyond 2026.
When our company pulled out it was because China banned our products because our government had the audacity to ask for an investigation into the origin's of covid. It hurt, it hurt alot we had to mothball, decommission or repurpose about 30% of our infrastructure. Two years on they want to trade again, well no chance in hell, we will not invest again regardless of what our government has to say about that. There are many companies doing the same globally, building their infrastructure back home. China is in trouble, Huge, we can see it happening already, by 2026 China will be lucky to survive in it's current economy and it doesn't have anything else to trade, unlike Russia.

Really great to hear of an Oz (I'm guessing?) company that sees through the BS of the China boosters. Good on you. What industry?

It is about time we got serious about bringing back steel and aluminium processing to Oz too. With our abundant wind and solar potential it's the biggest thing we could do for carbon neutralisation, and great for the economy and regional Oz.

I agree with you on China's near-term prospects. I find Peter Zeihan's conclusions there very persuasive - they're stuffed. And really, the way they treat the international community and global trade network on which their whole economy was based, they've only got themselves to blame. As others here have suggested, their best bet is probably to wait until Russia collapses following the Ukraine fiasco and pick over the pieces, starting with Outer Manchuria. A lot more realistic for them than Taiwan, and gives them access to some of what Russia's got and they need.

HOVIS

9th Apr 2023, 11:04

Tartiflette Fan

9th Apr 2023, 13:40

Macron is back from China and is dutifully parroting the message that Xi taught him.

https://www.politico.eu/article/emmanuel-macron-china-america-pressure-interview/

At least we know that France is consistent, Macron is following de Gaulle's policies perfectly.
The French people must be assured.

That is true. France has always had- in my opinion - a very schizophrenic relationship with America. On the one hand, the popular culture is very much admired and enjoyed - most obviously by those under 30 - yet there are and have always been, large numbers - often the very same individuals - who loudly loathe all aspects of American business and politics. Now I understand that this isn't automatically incompatible, although it's not something I see to this degree in other nations I know well.

I am sure that Zelensky recognises that France is the least supportive of the major euro-nations ( a quick look at support given to Ukraine would illustrate that very clearly ) and whilst he may be happy to shake hands and have meetings to gain more favourable PR, is unlikely to be taking advice from the Élysée, especially when it is linked to a visit to China.

Sfojimbo

9th Apr 2023, 13:55

That is true. France has always had- in my opinion - a very schizophrenic relationship with America.
It certainly has to be a message that sells well with the French voters, it's been a standby in French politics for 75 years. It seems to be not only a bifurcated relationship with the US, but also a fetish toward Russia. During the cold war Communism was a popular idea in France and I thought that explained things, but Communism is gone and the fetish remains, even under fascist rule in Russia.

It doesn't look like it's going to change in anyone living now's lifetime.

Ninthace

9th Apr 2023, 14:11

I think resisting pressure to become America's followers is sound advice. There is no guarantee that the US will always be Europe's friend or that even as friends their support will be reliable and vice versa. What would happen if the interests of the US came into conflict with those of Europe? Allies and co-conspirators by all means but followers implies a degree of subservience. We should always sup with a longer spoon with any state that may not always have our best interests at heart,

Video Mixdown

9th Apr 2023, 14:26

Sfojimbo

9th Apr 2023, 14:26

I think resisting pressure to become America's followers is sound advice.
Other than Britain under Tony Blair (and post war Germany), when has any European state been a "follower" of the US?

Also, this strikes me as a funny time to be spewing that message.

Ninthace

9th Apr 2023, 15:06

Other than Britain under Tony Blair (and post war Germany), when has any European state been a "follower" of the US?

Also, this strikes me as a funny time to be spewing that message.
Not sure how thar is an answer,
The point was about resisting pressure to become a US follower..
The verb implies a change from the status quo, You cannot become what you already are.
As you point out, Europe is not a US follower. No one has argued otherwise.

Ninthace

9th Apr 2023, 15:52

Your previous argument( #1544 )was the Europe was not a follower and with recent exception (according to you) never had been. Now in #1546 you say there is/has been . You cannot have it both ways,

Sfojimbo

9th Apr 2023, 16:17

Your previous argument( #1544 )was the Europe was not a follower and with recent exception (according to you) never had been. Now in #1546 you say there is/has been . You cannot have it both ways,
LOL
You can argue all alone with yourself from here on out.

I'll just watch.

West Coast

9th Apr 2023, 18:13

Ninthace

9th Apr 2023, 18:16

So did Politico and allegedly M. Macron. The EU is quite a large part of Europe though

West Coast

9th Apr 2023, 18:27

So did Politico and allegedly M. Macron. The EU is quite a large part of Europe though

As is Russia. Hungary is a part, as are the Balkans, etc…

Video Mixdown

9th Apr 2023, 18:40

So did Politico and allegedly M. Macron. The EU is quite a large part of Europe though
It’s pretty clear that Macron was talking about a European Military organisation under the leadership of France, not the EU and not NATO. You could argue that splitting most of continental Europe away from NATO, effectively destroying it, would be warmly welcomed in Moscow and Beijing.

Ninthace

9th Apr 2023, 18:41

As is Russia. Hungary is a part, as are the Balkans, etc…
Only part of Russia is part of Europe geographically speaking but it is not part of the EU whereas Hungary et al are. To save you the trouble, here is a list of the member states. You will note the UK is sadly not part any more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_state_of_the_European_Union

West Coast

9th Apr 2023, 18:44

Only part of Russia is part of Europe geographically speaking but it is not part of the EU whereas Hungary et al are. To save you the trouble, here is a list of the member states. You will note the UK is sadly not part any more.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_state_of_the_European_Union

Sorry but Europe and EU are not interchangeable terms.

Ninthace

9th Apr 2023, 18:46

West Coast

9th Apr 2023, 20:41

I never said they were but Macron has influence within the EU and that is 27 of the countries within Europe. By comparison, how many of the countries within Europe are not members of the EU or closely economically connected with them by to the point of accepting EU rules?

Let’s apply that to your nation first.

Ninthace

9th Apr 2023, 20:44

Let’s apply that to your nation first.
Apply what and why? Macron has precious little influence in the UK. What does any of that to do with China? Address the points raised in #1555 et seq instead of playing silly b*ggrs..

Seems the Torygraph agrees with my #1553
Emmanuel Macron has said Europe must not be a “follower” of the US agenda when it comes to tensions between China and Taiwan (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/09/china-taiwan-mock-strikes-tsai-ing-wen-us-visit/).

The French president made the remarks after returning to France following the conclusion of a three-day state visit to China (https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/05/emmanuel-macron-europe-must-not-separate-from-china/) last week.

“The question Europeans need to answer is the following: is it in our interest to accelerate [a crisis] in Taiwan? No. The worst thing would be to think that we Europeans must become followers on this topic and take our cue from the US agenda and a Chinese overreaction,” Mr Macron said.

Xeptu

9th Apr 2023, 21:13

Airbus think otherwise...

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airbus-open-second-china-assembly-line-finalises-jet-order-2023-04-06/

Europe is changing. I believe when Ukraine is liberated, it will, with Poland, become the power house of Europe, and the UK and the northern part of Europe will be part of it.
Airbus indeed France has a decision to make which doesn't include China. The western world has made it's decision and if southern Europe wants to be part of it, it better start making some decisions.

West Coast

9th Apr 2023, 23:01

Seems the Torygraph agrees with my #1553

The US position is Taiwan’s independence must be respected. Is Macron’s position different?

Sfojimbo

9th Apr 2023, 23:05

Seems the Torygraph agrees with my #1553
It seems like all the Britts agree with you. This reminds me of when Agrajag and his British friends attacked me when I first started posting here after I left the link to the KML file highlighting the railroad network in Ukraine. Some of you seem to have taken on the role of self appointed censors.

IMO Macron's comments are not at all limited to Asian events, they are a continuation of a 75 year continuous history of France working to undermine US influence in the world. Absent that history, yours and Torygraph's view might be correct. But you can't wave that 75 year history away with a motion of your hand.

BTW
THE (American) Wall Street Journal agrees with me that Macron has weakened US support for Europe.
"He weakens deterrence against Chinese aggression and undermines U.S. support for Europe."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/macron-blunders-on-taiwan-and-ukraine-france-asia-military-china-xi-jinping-military-support-303181c5

Ninthace

9th Apr 2023, 23:35

The US position is Taiwan’s independence must be respected. Is Macron’s position different?
I do not know. Publicly they are similar but I would question the depth of commitment of the US and Europe, with Macron’s influence, in terms of delivery on that promise. Would either of them actually take the bullet for Taiwan? Would either of them go to war over it? I suspect the US might push harder than Europe (depending on who is President) especially as Macron is already making the right noises from the Chinese perspective. But is this a quid pro quo for China taking a position on Ukraine and using its influence on Russia, as Macron asked them to?

ExAscoteer2

9th Apr 2023, 23:46

Who the F are the Britts?

golder

9th Apr 2023, 23:54

“the great risk” Europe faces is that it “gets caught up in crises that are not ours, which prevents it from building its strategic autonomy,”

Oh good. Next time there is a cat fight in Europe. Australia won't have to shed blood. To help save France and others.

Is there any chance? You could organise to send back the money and equipment we recently gave Ukraine? It's nothing to do with us.

Ninthace

10th Apr 2023, 00:09

Oh good. Next time there is a cat fight in Europe. Australia won't have to shed blood. To help save France and others.
I think the question now is rather the reverse. Would European countries shed blood over a cat fight in the Pacific. I suspect the answer would depend to some extent on how much Australian blood was being spilt and where, and to what extent European countries could make enough difference in time. Pretty sure the British would try but I cannot speak for the other countries. I am sure they would make an effort in economic terms but in actual hardware and bodies?

From both European and US perspectives, could Taiwan stand long enough for a military intervention to be made? Would such an intervention succeed? Would the cost be worth it? What are the risks of escalation? All way above my pay grade but presumably it is being considered in the relevant capitals

golder

10th Apr 2023, 00:35

Back off guys. You are only making work for the mods. Who will have to clean up the mess.Take it to PM.

West Coast

10th Apr 2023, 00:41

I do not know. Publicly they are similar but I would question the depth of commitment of the US and Europe, with Macron’s influence, in terms of delivery on that promise. Would either of them actually take the bullet for Taiwan? Would either of them go to war over it? I suspect the US might push harder than Europe (depending on who is President) especially as Macron is already making the right noises from the Chinese perspective. But is this a quid pro quo for China taking a position on Ukraine and using its influence on Russia, as Macron asked them to?

Just what militarily could France do to oppose Chinese aggression? “Stop or I’ll yell stop again”. The only thing Macron can do (and it’s now) is reinforce the level of isolation China will suffer should it invade.

fineline

10th Apr 2023, 00:48

Europe is changing. I believe when Ukraine is liberated, it will with Poland become the power house of Europe, and the UK and the northern part of Europe will be part of it.
Airbus indeed France has a decision to make which doesn't include China. The western world has made it's decision and if southern Europe wants to be part of it, it better start making some decisions.

Agree Xeptu, Poland and much of Eastern Europe, the Baltics, Scandinavia, the UK, USA, Japan, Australia, etc. are becoming increasingly aligned. France has a lot going for it, energy and food independent etc., but they are surely playing with fire by cosying up to the failing totalitarian states (note Macron's attempts to rehabilitate Putin last year), which are going to have a rough couple of decades quite likely involving some level of conflict between themselves (China and Russia that is, not France). It will be interesting to see which way Germany ends up leaning. India too - perhaps an emerging power player in their own right. The rest of Asia is also in play, although signs in the Phillipines, Vietnam etc. point to SE Asia seeing which way the wind is blowing.

These are interesting times, they will be very challenging for some parts of the world but as I suggested above, if you subjugate yourselves to a stagnant, belligerent totalitarian dictatorship that denigrates the very international system on which it relies, you're probably not going to achieve your full potential. Even if you're friends with France.

Ninthace

10th Apr 2023, 00:50

Just what militarily could France do to oppose Chinese aggression? “Stop or I’ll yell stop again”. The only thing Macron can do (and it’s now) is reinforce the level of isolation China will suffer should it invade.
Not just France but the states of Europe as a whole? They certainly do have forces to send to theatre but are they willing to place them under US control and would such a force be strong enough or quick enough to.be credible? Depending on timing and the prevailing situation in Europe, there may well be a lack of enthusiasm for such a venture. That is why I speculated about Macron’s motivation. Is it simply a recognition of this fact or is there something deeper? Has he agreed with China to take the line he has in return for China putting pressure on Russia?

Xeptu

10th Apr 2023, 02:21

China is an economic threat because corporate America handed them all the required tools. The corporations could do that because they bought enough legislators and even a President to make sure it happened. Now the corporations are strip mining American wealth to invest even more in the growing Chinese economy and the legislators are making sure that continues to happen. On top of that US universities welcomed full-price foreign students, which also allowed tuition and student housing inflation, to train as competitors to the US to go back to China with top American technology insights.

The serious threat to the US is the US and the US alone.

If there is consideration for military threat from China - that won't happen until the US corps have drained the most they can from the US economy.

Sadly we did it too, we truly believed that both China and Russia would become a democratic and free world like us. Most of their young people want that, in Russia they even believed they had that, until Putin said, this is not a democracy, you are not free to do what you want and I'm in charge. The same can be said of China albeit China hasn't actually done anything all that seriously wrong yet, We believed it wouldn't make any sense and it doesn't. I still believe in a free trade market just not with a regime ever again.
It is true about democracy, it's not free, you have to want it, you have to fight for it and then you have to defend it. Welcome Ukraine, may it be over soon and you take your place with us.

West Coast

10th Apr 2023, 02:56

Not just France but the states of Europe as a whole? They certainly do have forces to send to theatre but are they willing to place them under US control and would such a force be strong enough or quick enough to.be credible? Depending on timing and the prevailing situation in Europe, there may well be a lack of enthusiasm for such a venture. That is why I speculated about Macron’s motivation. Is it simply a recognition of this fact or is there something deeper? Has he agreed with China to take the line he has in return for China putting pressure on Russia?

The real threat China should fear from France and Europe is messaging of the level of isolation/loss of trade to expect should they invade. While French and other Euros military participation would be welcomed I’d have to think, as it would provide the ability to say it’s a coalition effort. As to the heavy lifting, I wouldn’t expect much from Europe.

Senior Pilot

10th Apr 2023, 03:24

Back off guys. You are only making work for the mods. Who will have to clean up the mess.Take it to PM.

LOL
You can argue all alone with yourself from here on out.

I'll just watch.
What a shame that Sfojimbo didn’t just watch; Mods have better things to do on the Mil Forum than accept posts claiming that we’re biased in our Moderation.

Since you didn’t just watch, nor pay attention to golder then we’ll help you with a week off 🤔👍

golder

10th Apr 2023, 03:57

I think the question now is rather the reverse. Would European countries shed blood over a cat fight in the Pacific. I suspect the answer would depend to some extent on how much Australian blood was being spilt and where, and to what extent European countries could make enough difference in time. Pretty sure the British would try but I cannot speak for the other countries. I am sure they would make an effort in economic terms but in actual hardware and bodies?

From both European and US perspectives, could Taiwan stand long enough for a military intervention to be made? Would such an intervention succeed? Would the cost be worth it? What are the risks of escalation? All way above my pay grade but presumably it is being considered in the relevant capitals
Going by Macaroon. I can only take him at his word. He said about Taiwan in the SCS "the great risk, [we] gets caught up in crises that are not ours"
They can ignore the others in the Pacific, if they wish. Abandon the existing world order....Does France not even care about, what's left of their Pacific colonies?

@Sfojimbo, FYI, I didn't report your post.

West Coast

10th Apr 2023, 04:07

Going by Macaroon. I can only take him at his word. He said about Taiwan in the SCS "the great risk, [we] gets caught up in crises that are not ours"

That’s scary especially given France was saved by nations who intervened in a crisis that wasn’t their own.

golder

10th Apr 2023, 04:28

The real threat China should fear from France and Europe is messaging of the level of isolation/loss of trade to expect should they invade. While French and other Euros military participation would be welcomed I’d have to think, as it would provide the ability to say it’s a coalition effort. As to the heavy lifting, I wouldn’t expect much from Europe.
You only need to look at Bosnia. Libya and Ukraine since 2014. To verify your opinion. Not only that, France and Germany bypassed the sanctions put on Russia.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/22/exclusive-france-germany-evaded-arms-embargo-sell-weapons-russia/

Less Hair

10th Apr 2023, 04:29

jolihokistix

10th Apr 2023, 04:46

France has traditionally had a last-resort connection with Russia, Iran and China, when everyone else in the West has irretrievably severed theirs.

Ninthace

10th Apr 2023, 06:59

Strange, at the same time the EU strategy is "tough" while France is "soft" vs. China? Macron must be desperate to distract from his domestic troubles? Whatever they prefer it should be coordinated between the EU and France. Going alone does not add weight.
The only flaw in that argument is this will not distract from his domestic troubles.one bit. The French public are far too up in arms to be distracted and Macron of all people will know this. No I think he has been told by the Chinese to keep his nose out of what they regard as their affair. Whether he has been offered anything in return is the question.

henra

10th Apr 2023, 08:05

It’s pretty clear that Macron was talking about a European Military organisation under the leadership of France, not the EU and not NATO. You could argue that splitting most of continental Europe away from NATO, effectively destroying it, would be warmly welcomed in Moscow and Beijing.

Under current circumstances this ain't gonn'a happen. Maybe 10 - 20 Years ago in Germany a much closer tie to France militarily would have been conceivable. Currently (and since a few years) there is rather a trend away from this even in Germany, the rest of EU anyway never having considered to attach themselves militarily to closely to France.
The relationship to the US is always a bit of an up and down. It depends to quite some extent how well the top politicians are personally getting along with the POTUS. With someone like Trump or to a much lesser extent George.W (in contrast to his dad where relationships were quite good) a strong tendency to cut ties with thee US was noticeable, whereas to some extent under Obama and definitely now Biden the relationships improved significantly (cue the military procurements in Germany -more from US: F-35, Chinook, P-8, potentially AH-1 or Apache, less together with France - MAWS killed, Tiger upgrade killed, no own developed HTH). With the aggression now seen from Russia I don't expect similar loosening of the ties in the near future unless Trump gets elected again and goes to bed with Putin. That would surely be something like a Deal- breaker.

Re getting involved in a quarrel with China over Taiwan one has to admit that the European Forces are not well equipped for a Peer level Fight Overseas. They had and to some extent still have significant Land Forces for National and NATO Defence. They have Equipment for Overseas asymmetric conflicts but they severly lack any Overseas Heavy Fighting Equipment (except from relatively powerful but short ranged Air Assets).

Asturias56

10th Apr 2023, 08:37

golder

10th Apr 2023, 08:57

I think it will be a very hard sell to the European public to get into a hot war with China over Taiwan.

Especially as every major European politician for the last 60 years has gone along with the the fact that Taiwan is part of China
It's a hard sell to me too. UN and US 'one china' includes Taiwan as a territory. To me it's an internal squabble. Ukraine has a better case for boots on the ground. However SCS is a bigger picture than that.

m0nkfish

10th Apr 2023, 09:06

Going by Macaroon. I can only take him at his word. He said about Taiwan in the SCS "the great risk, [we] gets caught up in crises that are not ours"

They can ignore the others in the Pacific, if they wish. Abandon the existing world order....Does France not even care about, what's left of their Pacific colonies?

@Sfojimbo, FYI, I didn't report your post.

If China invades Taiwan it will be a problem for everyone, including France. Taiwan is the worlds leading supplier of advanced semiconductors that are essential for the successful functioning of Western economies. But I think Macron is correct in the position he is taking now, the US is busy escalating this issue and seems totally incapable of recognising the geopolitical reality they live in. China is a global super power, and is rapidly approaching the point where it can be a true near peer rival to the US, and there is nothing anyone can do about it now.

I feel people should take a step back and ask themselves why America has suddenly got a big axe to grind with China, and why Taiwan has become such a hot topic. I don't believe America is really interested in respecting the democratic rights of the people of Taiwan. If they did they would at least recognise Taiwan as a country, but they don't. In fact none of the major Western powers acknowledge Taiwan as an independent country, they do not have embassies in Taiwan and Taiwan is not allowed to participate in the majority of the global organisations such as the UN.

This is about the US trying to reassert itself as the dominant global superpower, but the Chinese dragon is now out of the cage and is not going back in again, continuing on this path will lead to a major conflict, if not a World War. So Macron is right not to blindly follow the US, and we should do the same. Engagement and an understanding and respect for our differences would serve us and our children better, the age of empires is meant to be over.

Low average

10th Apr 2023, 09:45

I feel people should take a step back and ask themselves why America has suddenly got a big axe to grind with China, and why Taiwan has become such a hot topic.

America with an axe to grind? Eh?

China has a force right now openly rehearsing the bombing and blockade of peaceful Taiwan, but the US is the problem again?

The reality is that the Chinese have been exposed by Russia and have been forced to switch strategy, they can no longer rely on a divided, sleepwalking Democratic world - so the bullying tactics have commenced prior to the next move.

Less Hair

10th Apr 2023, 09:51

China has broken its HK guarantees and promises similar to Russia and Crimea before. Now China expands unilateral claims in the western pacific. It is now the time to say stop before things escalate in major ways. I agree with this US strategic assessment. China should be made aware that east west trade as we knew it will end after any Taiwan invasion.

m0nkfish

10th Apr 2023, 10:01

America with an axe to grind? Eh?

China has a force right now openly rehearsing the bombing and blockade of peaceful Taiwan, but the US is the problem again?

The reality is that the Chinese have been exposed by Russia and have been forced to switch strategy, they can no longer rely on a divided, sleepwalking Democratic world - so the bullying tactics have commenced prior to the next move.

China wasn't 'openly rehearsing the bombing and blockade of peaceful Taiwan' a few years ago. You have to ask yourself what has changed. If we are to assume that military rehearsals indicate the absolute intent to conduct military operations then everybody is at it, including us!!

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-uk-australia-carry-out-china-focused-air-drills-2023-02-09/

All countries, including China and the US, need to step back from this nonsense, in this regard Macron is correct. The sabre rattling approach of the US is not helping, its making a conflict much more likely.

Low average

10th Apr 2023, 10:25

Asturias56

10th Apr 2023, 10:46

"China should be made aware that east west trade as we knew it will end after any Taiwan invasion."

What you mean is that US China trade will end. The rest of the world will cheerfully keep trading with China - half of them are happy to trade with Russia and that's a far worse case than Taiwan

And where will the US get all the cutting edge chips from that are in everything that's built?

Less Hair

10th Apr 2023, 10:52

Video Mixdown

10th Apr 2023, 11:24

China wasn't 'openly rehearsing the bombing and blockade of peaceful Taiwan' a few years ago. You have to ask yourself what has changed. If we are to assume that military rehearsals indicate the absolute intent to conduct military operations then everybody is at it, including us!!
All countries, including China and the US, need to step back from this nonsense, in this regard Macron is correct. The sabre rattling approach of the US is not helping, its making a conflict much more likely.
More likely Macron's main interest is securing French export orders to China, and if that means helping Xi to undermine international support for the legitimate security interests of Taiwan then so be it. Whilst the China/Taiwan dispute remained a political one the world was rightly happy to let them sort it out amongst themselves, but the prospect of a full-scale military invasion causing massive death and destruction is something else entirely. Nobody is forcing China into this course of action, but they must be made aware that there will be consequences to military action. I'm amazed that having seen what's happened to Putin's army in Ukraine, that Xi is prepared to risk a similar debacle in Taiwan. As others have observed, they could probably now take over large parts of the Russian far east if they wanted and nobody would lift a finger to help Russia resist.
As for Macron, who knows what fantasies he entertains as he sits at the table with Putin or Xi? Perhaps he dreams of having such unchallenged power and thinks that with their backing he can separate Europe from NATO and lead a French-dominated European military organisation and sit with them as an equal. The UK and Scandinavia would not buy it but Southern Europe would probably have no choice. He can already bully the weak von der Leyen into letting him dominate the EU.

Ninthace

10th Apr 2023, 11:39

I would say your last para regarding Macron is pure fantasy and he has much more important fish to fry, especially as he is now in his last term. One of his predecessors my have had such a vision but he is long deceased.

Asturias56

10th Apr 2023, 13:54

That seems to be the Macron/French perspective but I don't agree. The disruption will be at least as big as the Russia-Western trade embargo that is still in the practical process of scaling down. Sure, India or some African states etc. might continue but it will be some significant reduction. This conflict would not end with Taiwan being invaded it would only start to escalate from that point.

I suspect a lot of "western " countries won't get involved in a trade war with China . Countries like Australia can't afford to, Canada went a bit weak at the knees when a few "delays" occurred over them arresting someone. And Europe? None of them have had any interests in the Far East since WW2 or before except the Brits - who handed back Hong Kong. India might join in tho' for obvious reasons.

None of the countries in the "South" will bat an eyelid - Brazil, Chile, Argentina, S Africa, Nigeria, Indonesia and as for the Middle East....... :(

Less Hair

10th Apr 2023, 15:11

China will carefully study what happened to Russia.

Ninthace

10th Apr 2023, 15:18

West Coast

10th Apr 2023, 16:00

With the added difficulty that Taiwan would have being resupplied. It would have to fight with what it had in the cupboard on the day with little chance resupply I would have thought, Would any other nation try to force additional supplies through a Chinese blockade?

That’s a double edged sword. China would be susceptible to an oil blockade. You can point to Russia, but the Chinese get a lot of oil elsewhere as well.

Ninthace

10th Apr 2023, 16:43

West Coast

10th Apr 2023, 16:56

I suspect we both know who would run out first! The Chinese have the luxury of choosing the moment and anticipating the effects of economic sanctions, They are hardly likely to begin without being fully prepared in advance and have had years to plan,

Wars, require a lot of POL. A blockade of China is part of the planning in the gaming that have made it to the public realm. Ask yourself why.

Ninthace

10th Apr 2023, 18:02

How long do the inhabitants of PPRuNe think Taiwan would last in the face of a full blown assault by PRC and hands up who thinks that running out of POL will be a problem for them?

Video Mixdown

10th Apr 2023, 18:43

How long do the inhabitants of PPRuNe think Taiwan would last in the face of a full blown assault by PRC and hands up who thinks that running out of POL will be a problem for them?
Unknowable. There is no evidence that PRC is any better at war fighting than RF. There is no evidence that Chinese military equipment is any better than Russian. They don't know for sure what the US response would be. They don't know what the international response would be. Maybe they can reduce Taiwan to a charred ruin and kill millions of people but what do they gain from that and at what cost? If they roll the iron dice they immediately lose control of the situation and anything can happen. Many here seem to view the Chinese as master strategists for some reason, but Xi comes over as a bog standard megalomaniac and this seems like an extraordinarily stupid thing to do.

West Coast

10th Apr 2023, 22:38

How long do the inhabitants of PPRuNe think Taiwan would last in the face of a full blown assault by PRC and hands up who thinks that running out of POL will be a problem for them?

Yes, of course, quiz an anonymous bb because that’s where knowledge of how the run up will play out, then the war followed by picking out winners and losers.

Some of the gaming made public (intentional or otherwise) involves China conducting an extended blockade of Taiwan while in turn being blockaded.

Takes POL for that even if you think this will end on the same week it starts.

Ninthace

11th Apr 2023, 00:55

There are a whole range of scenarios that may be played out available on the internet. One of the better reviews, in my opinion, is this one.
.The Devastating Consequences of a War Over Taiwan (https://www.thenation.com/article/world/china-war-taiwan-military/)
It is a longish read but it looks at a whole range of possibilities and is less jingoistic than many.

A review of the possible outcome of a blockade of Taiwan by the The Maritime Executive suggests China may suffer as a result, but it would not be a POL issue but rather the effect of the loss of imports from Taiwan.
Why a Blockade of Taiwan Would be Disastrous for China (https://www.maritime-executive.com/editorials/why-a-blockade-of-taiwan-would-be-disastrous-for-china)

Of course the problem with many analyses is they are written from a Western perspective and assume the Chinese think in a similar way to the analysts. This may be naive. As Russia and the Ukraine have shown, some states think very differently and the extent to which Taiwan is seen as unfinished business and their willingness to take losses in pursuit of Taiwan may have been underestimated.

tartare

11th Apr 2023, 01:50

Well the last master strategist/megalomaniac didn't turn out to be too smart, did he?!
No guarantee that Xi is any more clever.

Less Hair

11th Apr 2023, 05:27

“…we will extend them (the Koreans) our enthusiastic help in their struggle for independence. The same thing applies for Taiwan.” Mao 1937
https://thediplomat.com/2022/05/when-the-ccp-thought-taiwan-should-be-independent/

SASless

11th Apr 2023, 06:06

How long do the inhabitants of PPRuNe think Taiwan would last in the face of a full blown assault by PRC and hands up who thinks that running out of POL will be a problem for them?

As you inhabit these parts....you tell us!

Ninthace

11th Apr 2023, 06:57

henra

11th Apr 2023, 08:10

How long do the inhabitants of PPRuNe think Taiwan would last in the face of a full blown assault by PRC and hands up who thinks that running out of POL will be a problem for them?
A direct Landing Assault on Taiwan would surely be not so easy. Distance to mainland is 4 times the Channel. That gives ample warning time for Air Defence against incoming helicopters and coastal defence against incoming Landing craft. Taiwan has a mostly rugged coast. So not unlimited opportunities for Landing operations from Sea. It is mountaineous and heavily forrested. No easy target.
From a geograhphical perspective it is not the easiest target. The rest depends on Equipment (Ground based Air Defence and Anti- Ship Missiles) and determination. Also a critical topic will be supplies to Taiwan. As with Russia in Ukraine such an adventure could easily backfire.
For China it would currently surely be much easier occupying the Far East of Russia. There is not much Vlad' the Mad could do about it.

Asturias56

11th Apr 2023, 08:11

"Maybe they can reduce Taiwan to a charred ruin and kill millions of people but what do they gain from that and at what cost?"

they get back Taiwan - it's an absolute fixation, devoid of any hope of common sense or value. Quite a few wars have started on for similar reasons

I take your excellent point that once they start the situation is out of their control - far from believing Xi is a megalomaniac I think he'll be very wary of losing control. THE only thing more important to the CPC is continued control by the Party. ALL that is on the table in a conflict. They know their history - it's not all "foreign interference" - there's a big chunk of "warlord-ism" not that long ago. No point in regaining Taiwan and having the PLA running the country.

golder

11th Apr 2023, 09:45

Even frog TV is calling out his 180 degree turn from a few years ago.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfVDYAjqKeo

Tartiflette Fan

11th Apr 2023, 10:13

Sadly we did it too, we truly believed that both China and Russia would become a democratic and free world like us. Most of their young people want that, in Russia they even believed they had that, until Putin said, this is not a democracy, you are not free to do what you want and I'm in charge. The same can be said of China albeit China hasn't actually done anything all that seriously wrong yet, We believed it wouldn't make any sense and it doesn't. I still believe in a free trade market just not with a regime ever again.
It is true about democracy, it's not free, you have to want it, you have to fight for it and then you have to defend it. Welcome Ukraine, may it be over soon and you take your place with us.

I think that their continued blind-eye to product counterfeiting, theft of patents and state-sponsored spying on a grand scale in both industrial and military/scientific research represents serious wrong-doing and would have concerns about integrating Chinese products into strategic systems such as electricity generation, water-distribution, telecomms and many more. In fact the list is so long that one has to wonder if it would not be easier to ban them entirely : there might be problems with WTO on that, although I'm sure that China already does the same even though it may not be public.

m0nkfish

11th Apr 2023, 10:35

That link you've posted is from an exercise in the Nevada desert.

China have Taiwan surrounded, and have passed the median line. China has discarded the status quo.

What's changed? China has changed - I refer you to my post below:

The reality is that the Chinese have been exposed by Russia and have been forced to switch strategy, they can no longer rely on a divided, sleepwalking Democratic world - so the bullying tactics have commenced prior to the next move.

Anti China sentiment began long before Russia invaded Ukraine. President Trump swung the first shot when he quite deliberately sought to position the crosshairs away from Russia and towards China. Since then things have gone from bad to worse. No doubt Putin saw this, as well as the withdrawal/retreat from Afghanistan as a green light to launch his silly military escapade in Ukraine. All of this has exposed China, but not in the way you think. The world is recognising that they are a super power, and America and the West would do a lot better if they extended them the kind of respect that they would expect themselves. Instead we are now locked in a cycle of escalation that will result in a conflict unless someone breaks it. I think Macron recognises this and doesn't want his country sucked in, which is sensible.

America should adapt its foreign policy to reflect the reality of the world as it actually is, not how it was 20 years ago. China is not going to do as it's told because it doesn't have to. However much we might disagree with its actions, that is the reality.

Rockie_Rapier

11th Apr 2023, 10:59

A book called Chip War by Chris Miller gives some idea of the mayhem that would break loose in the event of an invasion of Taiwan and the west's subsequent lack of access to the cutting edge microcuircits that currently are only made there. Miller asserts that loss of this production would be as big of a hit to the world economy as the 1979 Oil crisis.
Chip War

Interestingly though, the technical support supply chain is such that were Taiwan to fall under Chinese control Taiwanese chip production could only continue if the west, mainly Europe, continued support for the production hardware that the Taiwanese companies are using.

judyjudy

11th Apr 2023, 13:52

”they get back Taiwan”.

A valid argument can be made that they can’t get back something they never had, and that ROC has a stronger claim than PRC, which never ruled the island.

Ninthace

11th Apr 2023, 13:58

I think that was discussed way up the thread but it is all a bit of an irrelevance in that their actions will be determined by how they see it, rather than how the West sees it, and I suspect they believe themselves to be ROC v2.0 (rebranded) and what was V1.0's should rightfully be V2.0's.

SASless

11th Apr 2023, 15:38

A valid argument can be made that they can’t get back something they never had, and that ROC has a stronger claim than PRC, which never ruled the island.

When you did your "Title Search" on the property....how far back did you check?

China is the oldest continuous society on Earth is it not....with many a government and claims of lands owned down through the Years....even Centuries....so who is the rightful owner in your view?

Is it China (now known as the PRC), Japan, or the Taiwanese (known today as the ROC)?

What effect did the several Treaties, Wars, and Rebellions have on who has rightful claim to Taiwan?

https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/was-taiwan-ever-really-a-part-of-china/

West Coast

11th Apr 2023, 15:43

I have already speculated in my exchange with West Coast and want to open it up to others to speculate to prevent another ping pong exchange of posts, I have posted a couple of links as food for thought so feel free to speculate. You are not usually short of an opinion. 😁

With the links you posted, are you now of the belief that an invasion of Taiwan could be a protracted event and not a weekend event?

Asturias56

11th Apr 2023, 15:47

Both the the Govt in Beijing and in Taiwan agree on One China and that Taiwan is part of the mainland - they just disagree on who should be in charge............

Ninthace

11th Apr 2023, 16:49

With the links you posted, are you now of the belief that an invasion of Taiwan could be a protracted event and not a weekend event?
I do not think I ever said it would be a weekend event. IIRC the point I made was the nation most likely to run into logistic problems when it came to be able to sustain their campaign would be Taiwan. for the following reasons. It would be comparatively easy for the Chinese to blockade Taiwan and comparatively difficult for any coalition to blockade China. The time taken for a coalition to form and to put in place any strategy that could impede the Chinese campaign or lift the blockade would be too long to prevent significant damage to Taiwan's defences. Given the size of China and the resources it has, the impact of such a strategy could well be insufficient effect the final outcome. China has had years to plan and prepare and will have gamed it through and would not make the appropriate provision to support their campaign, nor would they start a campaign unless they were confident of success. Finally, as been pointed out above, even if Taiwan was reduced to a smoking cinder, provided it had a red flag on it, that would be a victory as far as the Chinese are concerned.

Low average

11th Apr 2023, 19:46

America should adapt its foreign policy to reflect the reality of the world as it actually is, not how it was 20 years ago. China is not going to do as it's told because it doesn't have to. However much we might disagree with its actions, that is the reality.

Agree with a number of your points m0nkfish, however if the free world runs, China will follow through on it's threatening behaviour and murder the Taiwanese. Nobody is threatening China - absolutely no-one. This is Putler behavior all over again and it needs standing up to. I hope they don't make the same mistake.

judyjudy

11th Apr 2023, 20:20

Both the the Govt in Beijing and in Taiwan agree on One China and that Taiwan is part of the mainland - they just disagree on who should be in charge............

i don’t believe that is still true

m0nkfish

11th Apr 2023, 20:40

Agree with a number of your points m0nkfish, however if the free world runs, China will follow through on it's threatening behaviour and murder the Taiwanese. Nobody is threatening China - absolutely no-one. This is Putler behavior all over again and it needs standing up to. I hope they don't make the same mistake.

I don't believe it's a given that China will resort to a military reunification, but I do think they would like to believe they have the capability if required, and I think that is still several years away, if not longer.

Xeptu

18th Apr 2023, 21:30

I think that their continued blind-eye to product counterfeiting, theft of patents and state-sponsored spying on a grand scale in both industrial and military/scientific research represents serious wrong-doing and would have concerns about integrating Chinese products into strategic systems such as electricity generation, water-distribution, telecomms and many more. In fact the list is so long that one has to wonder if it would not be easier to ban them entirely : there might be problems with WTO on that, although I'm sure that China already does the same even though it may not be public.

I should have said nothing militarily wrong yet. I agree with you, we are in fact banning China by pulling out completely, it's just not politically or publicly acknowledged yet. No-one in the west is investing in China we are all packing up and going home. Macron tried to stop that but I doubt that will make any difference. If you look at the activity in China's main sea ports you can see it happening. There are a few countries in southern Europe, especially France which have some serious decisions to make. When the war in Ukraine is over those countries still sitting on the fence are going to get left out in the cold. It hasn't gone un-noticed which ones they are. It will be decades before we trade with China or Russia, if ever again.

Imagegear

19th Apr 2023, 02:44

I should have said nothing militarily wrong yet. I agree with you, we are in fact banning China by pulling out completely, it's just not politically or publicly acknowledged yet. No-one in the west is investing in China we are all packing up and going home. Macron tried to stop that but I doubt that will make any difference. If you look at the activity in China's main sea ports you can see it happening. There are a few countries in southern Europe, especially France which have some serious decisions to make. When the war in Ukraine is over those countries still sitting on the fence are going to get left out in the cold. It hasn't gone un-noticed which ones they are. It will be decades before we trade with China or Russia, if ever again.

How long will it take for Amazon alone, to unwrap its Chinese sources. Do you really think that the rest of the world is going to give up it's trinkets so quickly. I think it will not happen unless the balloon goes up. :(

IG

Tartiflette Fan

19th Apr 2023, 04:13

No-one in the west is investing in China we are all packing up and going home. Macron tried to stop that but I doubt that will make any difference. If you look at the activity in China's main sea ports you can see it happening. There are a few countries in southern Europe, especially France which have some serious decisions to make. When the war in Ukraine is over those countries still sitting on the fence are going to get left out in the cold. It hasn't gone un-noticed which ones they are. It will be decades before we trade with China or Russia, if ever again.

China was allowed to buy a significant part of the port of Hamburg early this year. this was not something that passed because nobody was paying attention: it was so controversial that it had to get the nod from Scholz ( who used to be mayor of Hamburg ).

April 4th ".

https://www.ft.com/content/37b2d801-4850-4aa5-a341-3da08b609913

" Tesla has announced plans to build a factory in Shanghai to produce its Megapack energy storage system, as chief executive Elon Musk resists rising opposition in Washington to US technology companies investing in China. The electric-vehicle maker said at a signing ceremony in the Chinese city that construction of the plant was planned for the third quarter of this year, with production scheduled to begin in the second quarter of 2024. Tesla expects the factory to produce about 10,000 Megapack units a year — reflecting Musk’s decision to deepen engagement with China just as his car business struggles to fend off growing competition from Chinese rivals."[/b]

jolihokistix

19th Apr 2023, 04:34

China will allow Musk to first build his Megapack factory...............

but he's Tesla, not Teflon.

Xeptu

19th Apr 2023, 06:30

How long will it take for Amazon alone, to unwrap its Chinese sources. Do you really think that the rest of the world is going to give up it's trinkets so quickly. I think it will not happen unless the balloon goes up. :(

We didn't do this, China did this, they banned our products, today we couldn't supply them even if we wanted to. We are not alone. It's only a matter of time before china can't get supply to manufacture those trinkets. The writing is on the wall and it's got nothing to do with what any countries government wants or has to say about that. Governments are reactive, not proactive.
We had a chinese importer recently wanting to import our products, we said well we used to do that but your government banned our products, we have moved on, we couldn't supply you now even if we wanted too, you have a nice day :) It felt somehow satifying.

thf

19th Apr 2023, 10:12

China was allowed to buy a significant part of the port of Hamburg early this year. this was not something that passed because nobody was paying attention: it was so controversial that it had to get the nod from Scholz ( who used to be mayor of Hamburg ).
That sale hasn't gone through, yet, as suddenly and belatedly, Hamburg Berlin has discovered that maybe that particular infrastructure may be critical after all. So they started a new review. You see: Germany, after having sold a hefty portion of their oil and gas infrastructure to Russian conglomerates, and then having to claw that back violently after February 2022, is capable of learning.

As to relations to China: Yes, Germany get's a bit nervous and careful, but only a little bit. Volkswagen is mainly concerned at the moment that they aren't the best selling car company in China any more. The entanglements are deep. Look at BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, internationally e.g. Apple: up to 20% of their revenue is nowadays realised in China. They will do everything to keep that up. If China decides to invade Taiwan and NATO countries decide to stand by Taiwan, that will be very painful for everybody. So, we all hope that China stays wise.

Xeptu

19th Apr 2023, 13:15

If China decides to invade Taiwan and NATO countries decide to stand by Taiwan, that will be very painful for everybody. So, we all hope that China stays wise.

The damage is done, the decision is made, we are over China and their new world order ambitions. If individuals like Elon Musk want to invest in China well good luck to him, I don't believe for a minute he would be stupid enough to do it.

HOVIS

19th Apr 2023, 15:25

Who is 'we'?

Winemaker

19th Apr 2023, 15:37

We didn't do this, China did this, they banned our products, today we couldn't supply them even if we wanted to. We are not alone. It's only a matter of time before china can't get supply to manufacture those trinkets. The writing is on the wall and it's got nothing to do with what any countries government wants or has to say about that. Governments are reactive, not proactive.
We had a chinese importer recently wanting to import our products, we said well we used to do that but your government banned our products, we have moved on, we couldn't supply you now even if we wanted too, you have a nice day :) It felt somehow satifying.
What products and country are you talking about?

bugged on the right

19th Apr 2023, 16:51

fineline

20th Apr 2023, 03:14

I believe he is referring to Australia. China threw a snit about coal, iron ore, wine, beef and other Australian products so the Australians looked for and found a lot of alternative markets. Well done to them. Loss of face for China.

Correct. For years Australia saw itself as a beneficiary of, and to a large extent dependent upon, Chinese markets and was very lax about the development of Chinese influence within Australia itself. But the relationship deteriorated massively under Xi, and with our last federal government, for example after Australia called for an international investigation into the origins of Covid China banned a lot of Australian imports. Since the change to a Labor government the rhetoric has become more diplomatic - but rather than being Australian capitulation, the Chinese have used the change of government as an opportunity to reset things a bit and back away from some of their more extreme, nationalistic, "wolf-warrior" style of interaction.

I would say they are seeing which way the wind is blowing in light of Ukraine - that Russia is a weak ally, that opposing American-led global systems of free and peaceful trade (upon which China is absolutely dependent) is a non-starter, and that the free world is not about to roll over, now or at any time in the future, to the kind of repressive surveillance state that China represents.

I would bet AGAINST China invading Taiwan at any point in the foreseeable future. Their oil supply would be cut off at the Malacca straits on day one, and the kind of sanctions that are now in force against Russia would devastate China in very short order. On the other hand, SE Russia - once the Ukraine fiasco really hits home - could well be theirs for the taking. Who would care? Japan wouldn't be too pleased about Chinese ports closer to them, but that's about it.

Iolar

20th Apr 2023, 10:31

Correct. For years Australia saw itself as a beneficiary of, and to a large extent dependent upon, Chinese markets and was very lax about the development of Chinese influence within Australia itself. But the relationship deteriorated massively under Xi, and with our last federal government, for example after Australia called for an international investigation into the origins of Covid China banned a lot of Australian imports. Since the change to a Labor government the rhetoric has become more diplomatic - but rather than being Australian capitulation, the Chinese have used the change of government as an opportunity to reset things a bit and back away from some of their more extreme, nationalistic, "wolf-warrior" style of interaction.

I would say they are seeing which way the wind is blowing in light of Ukraine - that Russia is a weak ally, that opposing American-led global systems of free and peaceful trade (upon which China is absolutely dependent) is a non-starter, and that the free world is not about to roll over, now or at any time in the future, to the kind of repressive surveillance state that China represents.

I would bet AGAINST China invading Taiwan at any point in the foreseeable future. Their oil supply would be cut off at the Malacca straits on day one, and the kind of sanctions that are now in force against Russia would devastate China in very short order. On the other hand, SE Russia - once the Ukraine fiasco really hits home - could well be theirs for the taking. Who would care? Japan wouldn't be too pleased about Chinese ports closer to them, but that's about it.

China has been busy trying to firewall the consequences of a more hostile attitude towards it from the West. The burgeoning trend towards de-globalization with less interdependence (West-East) and more "friend-shoring", will accelerate the building of the firewall. When the perception that the firewall is complete takes hold then they will be very tempted to make a move on Taiwan.

jolihokistix

21st Apr 2023, 05:15

When might makes right? "fair-minded poeple?" Who? The CCP?
Both sides of Taiwan Strait belong to Beijing: China’s FM | Politics News | Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/21/both-sides-of-taiwan-strait-belong-to-china-foreign-minister)

Quote: “Recently, there has been absurd rhetoric accusing China of upending the status quo, disrupting peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait,” Qin said. “The logic is absurd and the conclusion dangerous.” He added that “fair-minded people can see who is engaged in hegemonic bullying and high-minded practices”.

Less Hair

21st Apr 2023, 07:23

Lesson from the Cold War: The status quo must be maintained.
China has a choice: Keeping things warm and fuzzy or unilateral moves, confrontation and end of its hard currency trade income.

ORAC

21st Apr 2023, 11:02

https://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/articles/2023/4/17/japan-looks-to-partner-with-us-on-railgun-project

Japan Looks to Partner with U.S. on Railgun Project

CHIBA, Japan — It’s a “futuristic” technology that has been in development off and on for more than 100 years.

Electromagnetic railguns were first conceived in France during World War I. Since then, everyone from the Nazis in Germany, to China, Russia, India and the U.S. Army, have attempted to field the potentially game-changing weapon of war.

The U.S Navy, after spending some 15 years and $500 million developing a railgun for destroyers, gave up on the idea in 2021.

But the railgun concept is not dead. Japan’s Ministry of Defense is looking to partner with the United States on a railgun program that could be used to counter hypersonic weapons, a senior Japanese official told National Defense recently.

A railgun uses electricity flowing between two parallel conductors to shoot a non-explosive projectile at high speeds over long distances. The velocity results in such a powerful impact, explosives are not needed to cause considerable damage.

Despite the concept being around more than a century, no militaries have successfully fielded a railgun.

Shigenori Mishima, vice commissioner and chief technology officer at the Japanese Ministry of Defense’s Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Agency, listed a railgun as one of the military’s top research and development priorities at the DSEI Japan conference recently.

When pressed for details, he said the agency has been doing basic research on the technology for the past 10 years, but it could use help bringing the technology over the finish line.

There is a possibility that U.S. defense contractors could join the program, he said in an interview. “We could use help with the guidance system and power storage,” he said. “Those are your strengths. We have strengths, for example, constructing the rails — in material sciences,” he said.

The primary Japanese contractor on the program is Japan Steel Works, and Mishima said he has encouraged its executives to reach out to counterparts in the United States such as BAE Systems and General Atomics to see if they could join the program.

BAE Systems was the primary contractor on the U.S. Navy’s attempt to field a railgun. The Army contracted with General Atomics to research land-based options, such as integrating a gun on a tank or for long-range artillery. But the Navy soured on the technology and cut off funding in 2021, and the Army contract expired at about the same time.

“The decision to pause the EMRG program is consistent with department-wide reform initiatives to free up resources in support of other Navy priorities [which] include improving offensive and defensive capabilities such as directed energy, hypersonic missiles and electronic warfare systems,” the Navy told Military.com upon the program’s cancelation in July 2021.

However, hypersonic defense is what Japan sees as the gun’s primary application, Mishima said. It could also be land-based for island defense and shore-to-ship applications, he added. Hypersonic missiles and aircraft are defined as highly maneuverable and can reach Mach 5 or higher, which is a speed that railguns could be expected to achieve.

“If we can demonstrate the railgun, the United States might change its mind on the technology,” he said. It would be a win-win for everybody, he said.....

Asturias56

21st Apr 2023, 11:24

worse than fusion reactors...................................

Xeptu

24th Apr 2023, 06:58

China has been busy trying to firewall the consequences of a more hostile attitude towards it from the West. The burgeoning trend towards de-globalization with less interdependence (West-East) and more "friend-shoring", will accelerate the building of the firewall. When the perception that the firewall is complete takes hold then they will be very tempted to make a move on Taiwan.

China knows we are duplicating our critical investment infrastructure out of Taiwan for that reason. We would like to see Taiwan continue as is, but there is no question that we will not allow that technology to be stolen by the Chinese, if we have to totally destroy it, we will. That's the reason for Chinas escalation over Taiwan. Give it to us or we will take it anyway.
30 years ago we hoped that Chinas growth and development would lead to democracy, Tiananmen square was the first sign that it was happening, they really do want it and I believe they do, but it's just not going to happen without bloodshed like every other democracy. We were wrong.

Ninthace

24th Apr 2023, 10:55

Do "we" actually have the authority or means to destroy the technology in Taiwan? Surely, that is something that must be left to the Taiwanese?

Tartiflette Fan

24th Apr 2023, 13:36

China knows we are duplicating our critical investment infrastructure out of Taiwan for that reason.

I am only aware of TSMC building new plants outside of Taiwan, and AFAIK - nobody has invested in TSMC infrastructure in Taiwan, other than via normal share purchase, so it's not clear why you write " our critical investment infrastructure ". Also the first plant in Arizona is not due to start producing until 2024, so it will be a long time until the volume can be equal to that produced un Taiwan.

Do "we" actually have the authority or means to destroy the technology in Taiwan? Surely, that is something that must be left to the Taiwanese?

That seems completely correct to me.

Xeptu

24th Apr 2023, 22:00

Do "we" actually have the authority or means to destroy the technology in Taiwan? Surely, that is something that must be left to the Taiwanese?

That's the nature of war is it not, should China attack Taiwan. Lets at least hope that doesn't happen.

Ninthace

24th Apr 2023, 23:07

That's the nature of war is it not, should China attack Taiwan. Let’s at least hope that doesn't happen.
Pitching up on the middle of a Sino-Taiwanese conviction and bombing the bejazus out of their industrial infrastructure “just in case “ might not endear you to the side you were supposed to be backing.

Xeptu

24th Apr 2023, 23:19

Pitching up on the middle of a Sino-Taiwanese conviction and bombing the bejazus out of their industrial infrastructure “just in case “ might not endear you to the side you were supposed to be backing.

That's not what I intended to say if I did. I meant that infrastructure would not be allowed to be taken by China, if and when they were to attack Taiwan. I'm not one of those that believe that is going to happen any time soon and even if they did, I'm not convinced China would be successful.

mickjoebill

26th Apr 2023, 03:22

The damage is done, the decision is made, we are over China and their new world order ambitions. If individuals like Elon Musk want to invest in China well good luck to him, I don't believe for a minute he would be stupid enough to do it.
The other relevant party is consumers. We just acquired an mid size crossover suv EV called atto 3 from Byd, a Chinese manufacturer for just A$47k (£25k) including A$3k govt rebate. Designed by a former audi guy, Byd are 2nd biggest battery manufacturer so they can keep cost of the car battery competitive. The autonomous braking steering kit is 3rd party all the other locally made components are equal to European cars. They have just purchased a autonomous sensor company that will use lidar and new active suspension to identify irregularities in road surface and prepare suspension accordingly. They are still behind Tesla but years ahead of legacy manufacturers. An import ban on Chinese cars would be a serious political problem in Australia as they are the most affordable EVs and the Labor govt is ramping up EV subsidies in line with their green policies.

Mjb

rattman

2nd May 2023, 11:14

The other relevant party is consumers. We just acquired an mid size crossover suv EV called atto 3 from Byd, a Chinese manufacturer for just A$47k (£25k) including A$3k govt rebate. Designed by a former audi guy, Byd are 2nd biggest battery manufacturer so they can keep cost of the car battery competitive. The autonomous braking steering kit is 3rd party all the other locally made components are equal to European cars. They have just purchased a autonomous sensor company that will use lidar and new active suspension to identify irregularities in road surface and prepare suspension accordingly. They are still behind Tesla but years ahead of legacy manufacturers. An import ban on Chinese cars would be a serious political problem in Australia as they are the most affordable EVs and the Labor govt is ramping up EV subsidies in line with their green policies.

Mjb

Australian Teslas are chinese made, so ban on chinese cars would also hit tesla. Also dunno what it like over there but dont crash your BYD in australia. Flat mates a panel beater, the shop he works at had to take a lease on another building to store all the BYD and great walls awaiting spare parts, some have been waiting 9 months. Note this isn't just chinese, KIA is also having massvie supply issues. Insurance are just writing off lightly damage kia's as they CBF waiting for parts

ORAC

10th May 2023, 09:10

https://twitter.com/maks_nafo_fella/status/1656204514918117376?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Japan wants to open the first NATO office in Asia

The country has rethought the situation in the region after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is already in talks to open the first NATO liaison office in Asia.

According to Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, cooperation with NATO "becomes more and more important" as events in Eastern Europe go beyond its borders and have a direct impact on the situation in the Pacific region.…

Less Hair

10th May 2023, 09:13

Fantastic idea. Undisputed sea traffic from Asia is even NATO's sphere of interest. Russia might be too weak to oppose anything for years.

Imagegear

10th May 2023, 09:38

Couple of points:

Japan is not the North Atlantic, perhaps "SEATO" (South East Asia Treaty Organisation) with similar structures and laws driving inter-organisational coordination, interaction and political oversight. The alternative might be a fully integrated "WDTO" (World Defence Treaty Organisation) but this is perhaps a considerable stretch of imagination.

Since Russia is quickly becoming "Hors de Combat", China is the new Russia in that region, so an organisation comprised of nations who wish to deter the threat is definitely in order.

It took the West many, many years to define and implement their agreement, I suspect in Asia, it will take as long if not more to achieve something similar. The upside is, they already have a template to model.

IG

Buster Hyman

10th May 2023, 10:50

If China's throwing 'tantys' over the Quad, imagine an Asian NATO!!! :}

bugged on the right

10th May 2023, 11:44

How about NEATO?

Less Hair

10th May 2023, 12:13

NOGO? Northern globe treaty organisation?

Buster Hyman

10th May 2023, 13:17

Pacific And Nippon Treaty Organisation... It's just a show really...

West Coast

11th May 2023, 02:07

Imagegear

11th May 2023, 04:24

Is being in the North Atlantic a requirement to be a member of NATO?

The answer is no, however, Asians think very differently to Western Europeans or the US and will need to have a model that incorporates their specific circumstances.

Not only that, I believe that a more realistic objective would be like-minded Asian nations coming together collectively, and
gaining more confidence in their own ability to function together as an entity.

Unlike in the current situation, where individual nations who are not completely aligned in their defensive posture, call upon the USA, Europe or Australia for support and backup, Whereas a regional grouping would be much more confident in seeking common alignment and projecting a greater presence.

A model such as this would enable a more solid deterrent against aggression. I am also aware that some of these regional exercises are already occurring but are usually bolstered with additional elements from the West or Australia.

So the potential is there, but not the cohesive integration.

IG

West Coast

11th May 2023, 05:11

The answer is no, however, Asians think very differently to Western Europeans or the US and will need to have a model that incorporates their specific circumstances.

Not only that, I believe that a more realistic objective would be like-minded Asian nations coming together collectively, and
gaining more confidence in their own ability to function together as an entity.

Unlike in the current situation, where individual nations who are not completely aligned in their defensive posture, call upon the USA, Europe or Australia for support and backup, Whereas a regional grouping would be much more confident in seeking common alignment and projecting a greater presence.

A model such as this would enable a more solid deterrent against aggression. I am also aware that some of these regional exercises are already occurring but are usually bolstered with additional elements from the West or Australia.

So the potential is there, but not the cohesive integration.

IG

Yet somehow NATO encompasses a largely Muslim nation and a number of secular ones and many in between. Not harmoniously of course but the working relationship exists, in theory at least. Also, don’t forget Japan (and other Asian nations) have existing security agreements with the US and work very closely together as is.

The deciding factor should be a prospective nation’s willingness to accept the articles that define NATO and not a preconceived belief of the eastern mindset.

If anything I’d see the tyranny of distance being the real inhibiting factor, not one of culture. Hard for Europe to be of timely military assistance to Japan when the quickest paths are likely through the aggressor and sympathizers.

Imagegear

11th May 2023, 06:22

I agree, distance is a major problem. In regard to collaboration, many nations have defence agreements with other nations in addition to having commitments to Nato.

IG

ORAC

11th May 2023, 06:29

They’re only looking at opening a liaison office, not joining.

Asturias56

11th May 2023, 08:30

Where do we apply?

Less Hair

11th May 2023, 08:52

It's good to not just watch things happen, but to open new strategic options for the West at this very right moment.

Lonewolf_50

12th May 2023, 18:56

Interesting article on how the tension over Taiwan has done harm to US / Thailand relations. (https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/05/12/united-states-thai-relations-alliance-china-problem/)
(at the link)
Lots of nuance and complexity in the region, politically.
Bottom line is that after a good 2022, the Thais (who have to live in this neighborhood, and who have a lot of economic ties with China) find the ratcheting up of tensions to be against their interests.

Asturias56

13th May 2023, 08:36

ys - the West always sees things in terms of everyone v China but intra-region there are a lot more varied drivers. Malaysia/Singapore, Thailand/Burma, Laos/Cambodia/Vietnam are all somewhat more pressing and , what's critical, more newsworthy locally. Indonesia tries to avoid any commitment to anything and the Philippines has flipped views on a regular basis

SLXOwft

13th May 2023, 14:18

The elephant in the room is India, the world's most populous country has China as its second largest trading partner but it is only China's 13th. Since 2015 there seems to have been a decline in Sino-Indian relations. Although only a third of China's, India's defence expenditure is the world's 3rd or 4th highest (depending on source) and it has the second largest military in terms of numbers. How far it will seek to oppose actively China's influence in countries in the Indian Ocean, East and South China Seas remains to be seen.

golder

13th May 2023, 15:30

China uses Pakistan as a proxy, vs India?

Asturias56

13th May 2023, 17:45

. "Since 2015 there seems to have been a decline in Sino-Indian relations."

i'd say its been rocky since 1962 TBH

Lordflasheart

13th May 2023, 19:16

...
I'd say it's been rocky since 1962 TBH

Thanks for the reminder Asturias

IIRC - The turning point in the establishment of Mao's Peoples Republic of China as the governing body of mainland China (during the course of the civil war post WWII) was deemed to be "When they crossed the Yangtse" - around late 1949.

Again IIRC - One of the first major nations to give formal recognition to the new administration was Nehru's India. A perfectly reasonable move for India. Look what it got 'em. That spat is still going - off and on.

Look what it gets anyone who tries to do "diplomacy" with the PRC.

Apparently BN Mullik's book - "The Chinese Betrayal" is still available in various €-formats on-line.

LFH
...

Asturias56

14th May 2023, 07:31

If you read Mullik you should also read Maxwells "India's China War" - the whole frontier was never properly delineated OR demarcated - much of it was placed on dodgy maps by British administrators and, shall we say, incorporated some wishful thinking.

Generally speaking the Chinese have offered to negotiate and generally speaking the Indians have refused - God knows why - the areas make the Falklands ("two bald men fighting over a comb") look like the Garden of England

ORAC

14th May 2023, 08:35

God knows why
One word - water…

https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-china-relations-geopolitics-water

Asturias56

14th May 2023, 14:13

It's a valid point but the boarder issue long predates the Chinese plans to move lots of water .

It seems grounded in a stand-off between boundaries set out (or not) by "unequal treaties " and imperialism on the Chinese side and the Indian view of sacred country none of which can be disposed of.

The Brahmaputra runs for hundreds of miles through what is clearly Chinese Tibet so they don't need to fight a border war to be able to divert it (if they wanted to). The main problems with the border in the western sector are someways north of the Indus in the Aksai Chin. This was more to do with the British trying to push the Imperial Russian Empire northwards than anything else.

SLXOwft

14th May 2023, 16:15

. "Since 2015 there seems to have been a decline in Sino-Indian relations."

i'd say its been rocky since 1962 TBH

I was thinking about the decline since the apparent rapprochement between Xi and Modi.:) And in the middle of the first decade of this century when China began supoprting Indian claims to a permanent seat on the UNSC.

I have see commentary that India would like to see a relationship of equal partners but China sees India as having to accept a junior but welcome role.

Big Pistons Forever

14th May 2023, 16:35

This is becoming a very dangerous part of the world for everyone on Earth. Pakistan is now essentially a failed state and economic vassal of China. India is cautiously playing both sides but on balance is moving moving away from China and towards the West as exemplified by the "Quad" agreement. So we have 2 nuclear armed border states one aligned with the Russia China axis and the other aligned with the west and both sitting next to a vital maritime trade route. I am especially worried about the command and control system for Pakistan nuclear missiles. There is open source intelligence suggesting that they are under the de-facto control of ISI extremists. The nightmare scenario is a nuclear missile launch against India orchestrated by some ISI wackadoodle spiral into WWW3....

Asturias56

15th May 2023, 07:28

They came close a few years back IIRC after which the major N powers waded in with some advice and assistance on Command & Control

The USA spent a fair bit in aid I think

jolihokistix

15th May 2023, 10:27

They came close a few years back IIRC after which the major N powers waded in with some advice and assistance on Command & Control

The USA spent a fair bit in aid I think
Translation.
For American readers here, 'a fair bit' is actually quite a lot.

Asturias56

15th May 2023, 14:21

over $100 mm I believe................... almost nothing to our US friends I'm sure........

golder

18th May 2023, 05:17

This is worth the time to watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LaYixdkY4IQ

ORAC

18th May 2023, 07:28

How it starts, China effectively taking over the port of Vladivostok for trade shipments to an£ from Jilin province to the rest of China - Chinese customs clearance for other international shipments with Chinese goods shipments being treated as domestic transfers.

Presumably China will also be building improved raid and rail links from their cities and industrial zones to the ports.

No comments I have seen anywhere from the Russians.

In China Vladivostok is known as Haishenwai, meaning 'sea-cucumber bay' and was once ruled by China. And you know the Chinese principle of once Chinese, always Chinese….

https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202305/16/WS6463a164a310b6054fad34e0.html

Experts: Transit port to bolster regional growth

Asturias56

18th May 2023, 07:49

Just close friends co-operating..... :rolleyes: right now the Russians have no choice at all.............

henra

18th May 2023, 08:03

Asturias56

18th May 2023, 10:30

Not sure the Chinese want to take over the place - they just want access at mates rates to all the natural resources. There's no real market and not many people

Not_a_boffin

18th May 2023, 10:41

Not sure the Chinese want to take over the place - they just want access at mates rates to all the natural resources. There's no real market and not many people
What's Chinese for Lebensraum?

Asturias56

18th May 2023, 13:55

They have plenty of room - and will have even more as more and more people move to the cities as development proceeds - currently only 65% live in cities compared to 80% in the USA and 90% in Australia

I believe they already have problems in the old "rust belt" and remote rural areas as the young are all moving into big cities further south

Ninthace

18th May 2023, 17:09

What's Chinese for Lebensraum?
Best guess 非洲

Barksdale Boy

19th May 2023, 01:58

Best guess 非洲
Belt and Road not working out so well, so why would Africa?

jolihokistix

19th May 2023, 03:22

lebensraum を中国語 - 英語-中国語の辞書で| Glosbe (https://glosbe.com/en/zh/lebensraum)

Lebensraum to both main types of Chinese

Barksdale Boy

19th May 2023, 05:03

Joli
My immediate reaction to #1683 was shenghuo kongjian, but perhaps that was a little too literal and indeed shengcun kongjian fits the bill better.

golder

19th May 2023, 14:25

G7 steps up Russia sanctions, seeks to cut China trade dependency
https://www.reuters.com/world/g7-leaders-reckon-with-ukraine-haunted-by-hiroshima-nuclear-legacy-2023-05-18/

Ninthace

19th May 2023, 16:56

What we are saying is the Russian attack on Ukraine is the equivalent of the elephant in the room taking a fulsome dump and it is finally time to realise the elephant is China?

Asturias56

20th May 2023, 07:54

two different problems - one is immediate the other very long term

Ninthace

20th May 2023, 11:06

two different problems - one is immediate the other very long term
Same problem - economic dependency on a potentially hostile state - different timing.

ORAC

20th May 2023, 22:44

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1659883799969136640?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Congratulations to the great geopolitical strategist Putin.

The China-Central Asia summit, to which China invited representatives of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - but did not invite Russia - is a very important signal.

This shows that China created a new Central-Asian C5, which China will lead. And Russia has lost its influence in the region where it historically had a lot of impact.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1271x515/image_9a44e8f8f5069b1272feff41abbb2981029b3457.jpeg

jolihokistix

21st May 2023, 00:02

What we are saying is the Russian attack on Ukraine is the equivalent of the elephant in the room taking a fulsome dump and it is finally time to realise the elephant is China?
New game in town, and the name of the game is Elephant Footballs?

henra

21st May 2023, 18:37

Congratulations to the great geopolitical strategist Putin.
The China-Central Asia summit, to which China invited representatives of Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan - but did not invite Russia - is a very important signal.

That is a genuine middle finger towards Putin. Together with China showing interest in Russia's far East, Putin should be more wary of China than of the West. The West will not grab parts of Russia itself. In case of China I'm not so sure...

How do you create a little empire?
By starting with a big one and fu**ing up.

fdr

5th Jun 2023, 12:46

PRC's manoeuvring in the Straits of Taiwan in breach of the COLREGS seems a bit silly, how long would it take to get BB-63 back out on her own bottom, she is pretty capable of separating tubs across her bows. :}

On an aviation angle, seems time to put a couple of F-35's into trail on the PLAF aircraft that are breaching ICAO Annex Rules of the Air. Seems like a gentle reminder to play nicely.

Lonewolf_50

5th Jun 2023, 13:45

PRC's manoeuvring in the Straits of Taiwan in breach of the COLREGS seems a bit silly, how long would it take to get BB-63 back out on her own bottom, she is pretty capable of separating tubs across her bows. :} Sorry to rain on your parade, but the Iowa class have been stricken from the fleet; not even in mothballs. (When I was stationed at North Island, I got to take my dad (who was visiting from back East) to visit the USS Missouri, which was parked at the carrier piers at North Island. He got a real kick out of that).

FWIW, this geopolitics observer sees that Ukraine War and China/Taiwan gambit are at the meta level a part of the same movement (https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/06/04/russia-china-us-geopolitics-eurasia-strategy/): and if you read between the lines, highlight a crucial problem with the UN as it currently is. (Basically, it is no longer fit for purpose as a collective security organization).

He makes an interesting point that the Cold War / Cold Peace where US and China are the two poles is a very different beast from the USSR / West poles, in part due to China's maritime capability and geographic advantages, and it's being on par with the US economically, which the USSR never was.

Wokkafans

9th Jun 2023, 22:13

https://twitter.com/spotlightoncn/status/1645279811835772929?s=20

https://twitter.com/spotlightoncn/status/1645279811835772929?s=20

ORAC

1st Jul 2023, 17:20

https://twitter.com/realairpower1/status/1675083847338274817?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

“US and Chinese air-to-air capability unimportant”, reveals a study conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). As per the think-tank's wargames: 90% of USAF, JASDF & ROCAF aircraft will be lost to Chinese missiles on the ground.

There won’t be any Battle of Britain style air-superiority battles fought over Taiwan. It will be a rocket/missile war fought at long-ranges with DF-21s and AGM-158s – whoever runs out of missiles first will lose the war!

Here’s a link to CSIC’s fascinating 165-page wargame study: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIyS MPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ

ORAC

1st Jul 2023, 19:47

https://twitter.com/realairpower1/status/1675197078656495616?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A

Four major (Airpower) takeaways from CSIC's Battle for Taiwan wargaming study (see last Tweet):

1. Shift to smaller, more survivable ships. The #USNavy lost two carriers and 10-20 major surface combatants as it fought its way to enter the Chinese defensive zone.

2. Continue development/fielding of hypersonic weapons. Hypersonics proved invaluable against Chinese platforms in game iterations.

3. Prioritize bombers over fighters. The range, standoff distance, and payload capacity of bombers presented the Chinese with serious challenges.

4. Produce more, cheaper fighters and balance stealth with non-stealth aircraft production. With so many aircraft lost early in the conflict, the #USAF will need numbers (lots of them).

fdr

2nd Jul 2023, 05:09

What's Chinese for Lebensraum?

居住空間

мы наелись. Дерьмо! Ебать!

:}
It has been on the cards, if China wants to do it, there is not much that Lord Farquard can do about it, and it was Chinese territory before, as much as Crimea is/was/would be Russian.

Asturias56

2nd Jul 2023, 07:56

The Results

The invasion always starts the same way: an opening bombardment destroys most of Taiwan’s navy and air force in the first hours of hostilities. Augmented by a powerful rocket force, the Chinese navy encircles Taiwan and interdicts any attempts to get ships and aircraft to the besieged island. Tens of thousands of Chinese soldiers cross the strait in a mix of military amphibious craft and civilian rollon, roll-off ships, while air assault and airborne troops land behind the beachheads.

However, in the most likely “base scenario,” the Chinese invasion quickly founders. Despite massive Chinese bombardment, Taiwanese ground forces stream to the beachhead, where the invaders struggle to build up supplies and move inland. Meanwhile U.S. submarines, bombers, and fighter/attack aircraft, often reinforced by Japan Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese amphibious fleet. China’s strikes on Japanese bases and U.S. surface ships cannot change the result: Taiwan remains autonomous.

There is one major assumption here: Taiwan must resist and not capitulate. If Taiwan surrenders before U.S. forces can be brought to bear, the rest is futile. This defense comes at a high cost. The United States and Japan lose dozens of ships, hundreds of aircraft, and thousands of servicemembers. Such losses would damage the U.S. global position for many years. While Taiwan’s military is unbroken, it is severely degraded and left to defend a damaged economy on an island without electricity and basic services. China also suffers heavily. Its navy is in shambles, the core of its amphibious forces is broken, and tens of thousands of soldiers are prisoners of war.

ORAC

2nd Jul 2023, 16:59

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1316/image_39ae8332178029a0cc317c699ef5574f706e3113.jpeg

Big Pistons Forever

2nd Jul 2023, 20:59

“US and Chinese air-to-air capability unimportant”, reveals a study conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). As per the think-tank's wargames: 90% of USAF, JASDF & ROCAF aircraft will be lost to Chinese missiles on the ground.

There won’t be any Battle of Britain style air-superiority battles fought over Taiwan. It will be a rocket/missile war fought at long-ranges with DF-21s and AGM-158s – whoever runs out of missiles first will lose the war!

Here’s a link to CSIC’s fascinating 165-page wargame study: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIyS MPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ

The linked report is a very interesting read and is IMO a serious attempt to quantify the unquantifiable, that is what should happen vs what is actually going to happen.

Personally I am pretty sanguine about the possibility of a PLA invasion of Taiwan. The US military industrial complex needs a peer enemy in order to justify the acquisition of expensive military hardware, but hardware is only one element of a military threat.

C2ISR, logistics, training, exercising, and demonstrated competence in a joint and combined operations is where wars are one and lost. The PLA is far behind the US in everyone of these areas. Furthermore any Military that prioritized fealty to the supreme leader over military competence is going to lose to a Westernized opponent, the most important lesson to learn from Ukraine.

I find it puzzling why there is not more open source discussion of the obvious most likely Chinese course of action, that is a blockade to starve Taiwan into a “negotiated” settlement. This military action short of war forces opponents into the requirement for a diplomatic/economic response. Given the internal challenges the US has in maintaining support for Ukraine, it is not unreasonable a calibrated slow tightening of the noose around Taiwan would induce a paralysis by analysis in the US that would preclude action until the annexation of Taiwan has functionally occurred.

Asturias56

3rd Jul 2023, 07:24

"Blockades" are often considered Acts of War - even by non interested parties

Big Pistons Forever

3rd Jul 2023, 15:52

"Blockades" are often considered Acts of War - even by non interested parties

Absolutely, however the optics are a lot harder to deal with. It is easy to make the case for a kinetic response to China when Taiwanese civilians are being killed by rocket and air strikes, but would be very difficult to use force against blockading ships. Just the threat of the use of lethal force by the PLA against merchant shipping will be enough to stop virtually all commerce.

Non kinetic responses like sanctions are much harder to make effective as Ukraine has amply demonstrated.

fdr

4th Jul 2023, 00:21

“US and Chinese air-to-air capability unimportant”, reveals a study conducted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). As per the think-tank's wargames: 90% of USAF, JASDF & ROCAF aircraft will be lost to Chinese missiles on the ground.

There won’t be any Battle of Britain style air-superiority battles fought over Taiwan. It will be a rocket/missile war fought at long-ranges with DF-21s and AGM-158s – whoever runs out of missiles first will lose the war!

Here’s a link to CSIC’s fascinating 165-page wargame study: The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan

https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/publication/230109_Cancian_FirstBattle_NextWar.pdf?VersionId=WdEUwJYWIyS MPIr3ivhFolxC_gZQuSOQ

which points to SAM capability needed to mitigate SSM's and ASM's.

The upside of V/STOL is they permit distribution across an impossibly large area to interdict, whether they are better than a standard aircraft is moot, they will be available, whereas conventional aircraft are locatable at known coordinates, enough to take them off the table. Carrier based aircraft, while previously advantageous are now prone to standoff munitions that may defeat the point defence of the carrier, they are a delectable target for the opposition, and point defence has to be perfect.

Drones have made a change on the battle space, they provide ISR that was not possible before, and the ability to have a munition that can be manoeuvred as needed in response to immediate direct observations is a major change in the survivability of everything in the fight. China can be expected to have capable jamming, that will be a point of concern for the user of drones.

China will have a better time in Russia than Taiwan, the latter is both better and worse than we expect, but then so is China. The quality of the troops is compromised by the same rot that Russia has, the sad thing is that Xi actually recognised that and has been cleaning out the corruption in the PLA while at the same time he has done the grab of the century by becoming the god king emperor of Qin... contrary to the emphatic repudiation of leaders for life by the CPC post Chairman Mao, and his curious wife.

Asturias56

10th Jul 2023, 11:16

Interesting article and map in the Economist this week - only Bhutan and the Tajiks are "friends"

"No country has more neighbours than China, with 14 land borders. And its neighbourhood is not just crowded, but also tumultuous. There is a rogue state, North Korea; war-torn ones, such as Myanmar; ones with which it has festering territorial disputes, such as India; others with which it has overlapping maritime claims, such as Japan; and one—Taiwan—which it is constantly threatening to invade. It is a difficult group to get along with under any circumstances, but China’s flawed diplomacy is making the task even harder.............

None of this means that China’s neighbours are turning their backs on it. Given its economic heft, that is unthinkable. But it points to a future in which Mr Xi’s hegemonic ambitions are frustrated as the more stable and dynamic countries on his borders either resist his initiatives or hedge their bets, while the most volatile ones, with the dimmest prospects, become increasingly reliant on China’s support. The challenge for America and its allies is to offer China’s neighbours ever more ways to hedge. For Mr Xi, the question is more existential: can China accept relations with its neighbours in which it is anything less than pre-eminent?"

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/322x398/2023_07_10_econ_map_china_border_states__12a96064ae2eac5a8ca 2cf5312c47dbdf64ffc8a.jpg

ORAC

12th Jul 2023, 16:27

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/alarming-navy-intel-slide-warns-of-chinas-200-times-greater-shipbuilding-capacity

Alarming Navy Intel Slide Warns Of China’s 200 Times Greater Shipbuilding Capacity

The Office of Naval Intelligence is sounding the alarm about the huge gap in U.S. and Chinese shipbuilding capacity and its implications.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1438x809/shipbuilding_china_be83309149b104ad093ae3def0a7cdff090de369. jpg

Buster Hyman

13th Jul 2023, 03:05

As long as the missile building capability is on par at least, it might not be a problem. :ok:

Big Pistons Forever

13th Jul 2023, 03:48

China will have a better time in Russia than Taiwan, the latter is both better and worse than we expect, but then so is China. The quality of the troops is compromised by the same rot that Russia has, the sad thing is that Xi actually recognised that and has been cleaning out the corruption in the PLA while at the same time he has done the grab of the century by becoming the god king emperor of Qin... contrary to the emphatic repudiation of leaders for life by the CPC post Chairman Mao, and his curious wife.

I disagree. Lower level corruption and incompetence may have been reduced but the upper levels of the PLA are rotten to the core. The inconvenient truth is autocracies can’t have competent senior military leaders as they would then present a direct threat to the supreme ruler.

Asturias56

13th Jul 2023, 07:34

"Alarming Navy Intel Slide Warns Of China’s 200 Times Greater Shipbuilding Capacity"

Hardly news - the US has been down on capacity for donkey's years. Shipbuilding , in general, is done in poor countries - as they get richer the costs go up and the number of yards goes down. Take a boat trip along the Mersey, Tyne or Clyde. Or go to Singapore and see the old shipyards (you can't they built on them), and look over the horizon to Batam in Indonesia

ORAC

29th Jul 2023, 22:33

Japan doubling defence spending…

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2023/07/28/japan-forecasts-large-boost-to-defense-spending-over-next-five-years/

Japan forecasts large boost to defense spending over next five years

MELBOURNE, Australia — Japan will spend more than double on defense (https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/12/20/new-japanese-strategy-to-up-defense-spending-counterstrike-purchases/) over the next five years compared to the previous five amid a host of security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, according to the country’s latest defense whitepaper.

The English version, released July 28, projects Japan will spend $309.75 billion on defense between fiscal 2024 and fiscal 2028, compared with $122.48 billion between fiscal 2019 and fiscal 2023.

This includes $35.62 billion for standoff defense capabilities that Japan only recently started to acquire; the country spent $1.4 million on that effort in the previous five years.

These standoff defense efforts include the acquisition of air-launched standoff land-attack missiles such as the Joint Strike Missile for its F-35 fighter jets (https://www.defensenews.com/smr/2020/07/09/us-gives-the-green-light-to-japans-massive-23b-f-35-buy/), a program to extend the range of its Type 12 ground-launched anti-ship missile (https://www.defensenews.com/training-sim/2023/07/24/japan-south-korea-fire-missiles-in-australia-for-first-time/), and the development of hypersonic weapons (https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2023/03/20/us-japan-exploring-partnership-on-hypersonic-missile-interceptor/).

Japan’s forecast spending also includes $21.37 billion for integrated air and missile defense; the country spent $7.12 billion on that in the previous five years.

The document argues that Japan needs these capabilities “to counter opposing forces from a safe distance without being attacked.”

Projected spending on the integrated air and missile defense system mentioned in the document will likely primarily go toward two Aegis system equipped vessels that Japan plans to build in lieu of the scrapped Aegis Ashore missile defense system (https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/06/15/japan-suspends-aegis-ashore-deployment-pointing-to-cost-and-technical-issues/).

The ships, which are due to enter service in 2028 and 2029, will feature Lockheed Martin-made SPY-7 radars that Japan originally procured for its Aegis Ashore program. Local news agency Jiji Press previously reported that the vessels will each have 128 vertical launching system cells for missiles.

The whitepaper also said Japan is facing an “increasing diversity and complexity of airborne threats,” such as missiles flying at hypersonic speeds (https://www.defensenews.com/industry/techwatch/2020/03/13/japan-unveils-its-hypersonic-weapons-plans/), low altitudes and on irregular trajectories.

Other areas expected to see a large investment boost over the next five years include sustainability and resiliency, as well as cross-domain capabilities. The former encompasses ammunition stockpiles, sustainment and maintenance costs, and improving the resiliency of defense facilities. Funding for that is to jump from $42.73 billion to $106.8 billion.

fdr

29th Jul 2023, 23:22

I disagree. Lower level corruption and incompetence may have been reduced but the upper levels of the PLA are rotten to the core. The inconvenient truth is autocracies can’t have competent senior military leaders as they would then present a direct threat to the supreme ruler.

Which part do you disagree with exactly? Xi's purge of his billionaire Generals is covered in Xinhua court reporting. These guys were rorting the PLA coffers to the extent that would make Soigu think he was underperforming in grifting.

Does Xi have a problem with his selection of top brass? Absolutely, he has killed all people who speak the truth to him where it displeases him, and he is left with sycophants, appeasers, Yes Men, so that always goes well. He is isolated from reality by his system that he has full responsibility for. In one of the most recent disasters that befell China (another day ending in a "Y") it took 4 months before he was even aware of the problem. That is the extent of isolation he has established in his attempt to be the last "last emperor". He takes some action, against the corruption within the defence force, which impacts the capability of the force, he doesn't put the best and brightest officers into positions where they may take action against him, he has a greater risk from the uncorrupted officers who see his actions as being a step back to the worst times of the late 50s and early 60s, where the revolutionary leader ended up deciding to be the latest god king. Corruption affects capability, it reduces the internal threat to the dear leader unless it is so overt and unpopular that general resentment (not General Re Sent Meant) increases to the point of demanding removal of the God King. The PLA's rorting was getting way out of hand, Xi acted against the most egregious offenders.

The one child program is biting in the butt, China's demographics are lousy, about as bad as Russia's are. The PLA does not get the best of the best of the best, they get what they get, the commercial and industrial sectors have shortages of manpower from the growth and demand from decades of arbitraging manufacture to China so the west can have cheaper products. The PLA is not competitive for competent prospective employees.

Having sat for 4 hours trying to get a tow bar for an aircraft push back in China, the lasting impressing I have is the inability of bureaucratic China to act with logic or reason. (I worked for a Chinese airline once, for 2 years, as an IP, and in that time, on full pay, I never once stepped into an aircraft, never even saw a company aircraft - best job ever). I like China, like their food, like the people, don't see that bringing Formosa into the fold is in their national interest at all, while it make great rhetoric for the self appointed God King. Xi must be aware that while taking on Taiwan might be successful, it has at least equal probability of resulting in an internal guerrilla war for decades that would awaken emotions within the population and resentment against the govt. The same emotions that were present in Tiananmen Square exist today, they have just been appeased through economic reform, but they still run deep underneath the apparent apathy towards politics. Apathy can be overcome by giving an adequately egregious act against it's own population by a dictatorship. That is historically how most dictatorships end.

I find it puzzling why there is not more open source discussion of the obvious most likely Chinese course of action, that is a blockade to starve Taiwan into a “negotiated” settlement. This military action short of war forces opponents into the requirement for a diplomatic/economic response.

A blockade is an act of war if it covers international waters or territorial waters on another country. China can blockade their own territorial waters (with notice). The anomaly of sovereignty only really applies to military vessels, commerce is supposed to be a diplomatic incident when interfered with, but the state of registration can take action to escort, arm or otherwise defend their own state flagged vessels. PLA vessels attacking commercial vessels going to Taiwan would be an act of piracy, and would likely have repercussions, as it is an affront to FONOPS, so the USA would have a bit of a say. China is playing the bully game, intimidating Taiwan as Xi considers it to be good for his image. Losing most of their exports and more importantly, losing the 50% of their total food that is imported in sanctions would result in Xi being strung up fairly quickly. China needs trade, it is not discretionary, they would be in famine within 28 days of a retaliatory response to a blockade. The neat thing for Taiwan is, such a condition can occur with just a response from its trading partners and countries it has strong diplomatic support from, without UN support, and without any breach of international law. Any country can refuse trade with another country, and they can notify and blockade within their own territory as they may see fit. In the case of food supply to China, it is just termination of sales, port access, bunkering, stevedoring... it's what the French would do... (Japan: you don't want French cars, fine, your Toyotas are all to be inspected and cleared by a single customs officer in a village in the alps, who works part time, between the hours of 10:00-11:30, les mardis et jeudis, bon jour).

Big Pistons Forever

30th Jul 2023, 01:12

ORAC

PLA vessels attacking commercial vessels going to Taiwan would be an act of piracy, and would likely have repercussions, as it is an affront to FONOPS, so the USA would have a bit of a say. China is playing the bully game, intimidating Taiwan as Xi considers it to be good for his image. Losing most of their exports and more importantly, losing the 50% of their total food that is imported in sanctions would result in Xi being strung up fairly quickly. China needs trade, it is not discretionary, they would be in famine within 28 days of a retaliatory response to a

You are right a total blockade on China in retaliation to China attacking a merchant ship in International waters would be devastating to China. Unfortunately it would also be devastating to the US and EU economies. I am unconvinced that there is the will power to react with a strong enough response to dissuade China. The tepid international response to Russia after the Ukrainian invasion doesn’t inspire confidence.

Other than energy blockades which significantly affected a few European countries, in general the costs of sanctions to the US and the broader EU hasn’t been relatively mild.
That won’t be the cost with China given the huge amount of trade.

fdr

30th Jul 2023, 01:47

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1316/image_39ae8332178029a0cc317c699ef5574f706e3113.jpeg

You are right a total blockade on China in retaliation to China attacking a merchant ship in International waters would be devastating to China. Unfortunately it would also be devastating to the US and EU economies. I am unconvinced that there is the will power to react with a strong enough response to dissuade China. The tepid international response to Russia after the Ukrainian invasion doesn’t inspire confidence.

Other than energy blockades which significantly affected a few European countries, in general the costs of sanctions to the US and the broader EU hasn’t been relatively mild.
That won’t be the cost with China given the huge amount of trade.

China has a domestic economy based on it's export of finished goods. Their imports of note are raw materials in the way of energy, ore etc, and food. china does not nearly have a capability to feed itself without free trade of imported food in bulk from the rest of the world. Of those suppliers, China has been quite belligerent to a bunch of those suppliers, and those nations have every reason to be concerned by any increase in the reach that China is able to achieve. Those countries are likely to be most happy to apply support in embargoes to support a regional nation that is being harassed by China.

If China alienates their primary export markets, the nouveau middle class is out of cash and lifestyle, and will not be happy campers. If the food supply status hardens, then the rest of the miracle of China is not going to be happy going hungry while their produce gets handed over to those that live in the city and don't have to muck out the stalls every day. These are the same conditions that existed when alternatives to autocratic rule by an out of touch government existed, way back when. Didn't end well.

Historically, Formosa was populated by indigenous people from 3000BC through to around the 1300's when there was some interaction with Chinese. In the early 1600's it became a Portuguese colonised state, but the Portuguese were booted out by a Ming Dynasty remnant from the dynastic conflicts of the mainland who was then defeated by the Qing at the end of the 1600's. In 1895, Formosa was ceded to the Japanese, following more 'x'lent military feats by China. In 1945, it was taken back by the ROC-KMT (CKS). The ROC was the successor state in the UN, until the stunt of recognition of PRC occurred for expediency. That stunt helped achieve a short circuited UNSC, and internal politics resulted in the existing expansionist China. In the end, China has to have trade for it's own survival, so unless it intends to do a greater East Asian co-prosperity sphere thing, it has issues. Last time that was tried, it didn't go quite to plan.

Still like their food, at least the hot stuff.

judyjudy

30th Jul 2023, 02:28

“China can blockade their own territorial waters (with notice).”

One problem is that China considers Taiwan to be its territory.

fdr

30th Jul 2023, 03:30

“China can blockade their own territorial waters (with notice).”

One problem is that China considers Taiwan to be its territory.

Indeed China does, but the rest of the world, specifically the UN does not, so it would be an illegal act. Same exists in Crimea, Russia can bleat as much as it wants to about Crimea, it is not considered by the UN to be Russian territory, nor are the other criminally invaded parts of Ukraine.

Asturias56

30th Jul 2023, 06:55

This weeks Economist has a couple of articles relevant to Chinese action on Taiwan

One is the need to keep an eye on Chinese action to build/rebuild stockpiles ahead of sanctions - oil and pig food (only 3 months supply in country) are especially sensitive. So far all indications are that they're just about back to pre-CV19 levels of buying but nothing more.

Also its possible to see which airfields the Chinese are hardening - in the last ten years these have been largely well north of Taiwan around Beijing. One might start to believe they don't totally trust The Good Leader or Mr P.................................

Lonewolf_50

2nd Aug 2023, 14:21

An interesting analysis on Taiwan's energy situation is here.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/07/31/energy-taiwan-semiconductor-chips-china-tsmc/
How China uses that as leverage will be interesting to watch.

Asturias56

2nd Aug 2023, 16:02

Surprisingly little storage on Taiwan - nearly as bad the UK

Not too worried about them being dropped by suppliers tho - the history of the last 80 years show there are always people ready to bust sanctions etc and supply oil & gas to anyone at a price

ORAC

4th Aug 2023, 08:04

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-navy-sailors-charged-with-selling-defence-secrets-to-chinese-ncntfzjqn

US navy sailors charged with selling defence secrets to Chinese

Two US navy sailors have been accused of selling sensitive military information to China, prosecutors in California said.

The suspects, whose cases are separate, are both alleged to have handed over national defence material to Chinese officials in exchange for thousands of dollars. The information the sailors are accused of selling includes details on naval operations, wartime exercises and critical technical material, according to federal prosecutors.

While the cases are separate, it is unclear if the accused had the same Chinese handler or if they were aware of each other’s actions.

Jinchao “Patrick” Wei, a 22-year-old petty officer 2nd class, was arrested on Wednesday and charged with espionage. He served as a machinist’s mate aboard the amphibious ship USS Essex, which is currently based in San Diego, officials said.

Wei, who was born in China, was approached by a Chinese intelligence officer while he was applying to become a naturalised US citizen, according to the indictment. He is alleged to have received $5,000 in June 2022 for passing sensitive documents to his handler.

Randy Grossman, US attorney of the southern district of California, said Wei “chose to turn his back on his newly adopted country” for greed.

Wenheng Zhao, a petty officer from Monterey Park, California, was also arrested on Wednesday, by agents from the FBI and Naval Criminal Investigative Service (NCIS). The 26-year-old is charged with conspiracy and receipt of a bribe by a public official.

Zhao worked at Naval Base Ventura County in southern California and had access to classified information, officials said.

Zhao is alleged to have started working for the Chinese in August 2021 and to have passed on pictures and videos, as well as plans for US military exercises in the Pacific. He allegedly received $14,866 in payments from a Chinese intelligence officer.

Matthew Olsen, the Justice Department’s assistant attorney general for national security, said the alleged conduct “ represents a violation of the solemn obligation of members of our military to defend our country, to safeguard our secrets and to protect their fellow service members”.

Asturias56

4th Aug 2023, 13:59

$5k? must have been desperate..............

Thrust Augmentation

4th Aug 2023, 19:13

$5k? must have been desperate..............
Or over a carefully pre arranged barrel.

Bengo

4th Aug 2023, 20:02

M I C E.

N

Big Pistons Forever

4th Aug 2023, 20:27

China certainly has form for threatening relatives still living in China as a lever to force people into doing bad things. I bet that is what happened here. Still no excuse for traitorous actions but what a horrible dilemma, pass military secrets or see your beloved Aunt thrown in jail over some trumped up charge.

Lonewolf_50

8th Aug 2023, 13:00

Not just in the South China sea. It appears that the old Cold War game of tag has resumed. The ships of the Seventh Fleet conduct exercises in the Southern Pacific, the Chinese fleet and Russian fleet conduct exercises off of the Alaskan Coast. Tit for Tat. The United States military has sent four Navy destroyers to the waters off Alaska's coast after 11 warships from Russia and China were spotted patrolling near the Aleutian Islands last week. Alaska's two U.S. senators, Dan Sullivan and Sen. Lisa Murkowski, issued a joint statement (https://www.murkowski.senate.gov/press/release/murkowski-sullivan-statements-on-chinese-and-russian-vessels-in-us-waters-off-coast-of-aleutians) over the weekend saying they had been briefed on the operation and that "foreign vessels" have been operating in U.S. waters.

"The incursion by 11 Chinese and Russian warships operating together – off the coast of Alaska – is yet another reminder that we have entered a new era of authoritarian aggression led by the dictators in Beijing and Moscow," Sullivan said. "Last summer the Chinese and Russian navies conducted a similar operation off the coast of Alaska," he added. "Given that our response was tepid, I strongly encouraged senior military leaders to be ready with a much more robust response should such another joint Chinese/Russian naval operation occur off our coast."

ORAC

13th Aug 2023, 14:10

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Japan-to-set-up-cyberdefense-network-that-includes-Pacific-islands

Japan to set up cyberdefense network that includes Pacific islands

Information-sharing to be used to fend off attacks with eye on Russia and China

TOKYO -- The Japanese government plans to build an information network spanning the Indo-Pacific region to counter cyberattacks from such places as Russia and China, with a focus on providing support to Pacific island countries that have weak countermeasures, Nikkei has learned.

Signs of attacks and their methods would be shared on the network. Japan envisions being a bridge between the U.S., Australia, and other advanced regional countries on one side and emerging and developing countries on the other.

The Foreign Ministry has earmarked strengthening cyber capabilities overseas in the fiscal 2024 draft budget that will be presented this summer. The Indo-Pacific region, where China is building up its military presence, is positioned as a priority region. Southeast Asia and Pacific island nations will be supported through development assistance and other means.…..

Japan is already expanding cyber capabilities within the Quad framework, which also includes the U.S., Australia and India as members, and with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Incorporating Pacific island nations is seen as a way to strengthen the information sharing system.

It will also look at extending the so-called joint principles of cyberdefense in the Quad to other areas of the Indo-Pacific where the approach can be shared.

Japan has begun considering legislation that will allow it to engage in an active cyberdefense that would access an opponent's systems to prevent cyberattacks in advance. It expects that strengthening cooperation in Indo-Pacific will broaden the range of coping strategies.

ORAC

16th Aug 2023, 05:53

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/runway-being-built-on-chinas-closest-island-outpost-to-vietnam

China Is Building A Runway On Its Closest Island Outpost To Vietnam

Triton is the westernmost island in the South China Sea’s strategic Paracel archipelago and added militarization of it has big implications.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1124/2023_08_10_scaled_23252de64155d2b465986c2e5374a892965cfadc.j pg

Snowbound 612

16th Aug 2023, 15:05

Amazing what can be built on reefs

Lonewolf_50

16th Aug 2023, 17:35

Amazing what can be built on reefs If we go back to WW II, there were air strips build on a variety of Pacific Islands. :)

Asturias56

17th Aug 2023, 07:09

in a hot war they look like sitting ducks to me

rattman

17th Aug 2023, 09:55

Curious announcement today. Australia is considering a purchase of Chunmoos, depending on the delivery rate of himars and as an option to keep the Hanwha factory open after it completes production of k9/k10 and Redbacks

https://dtrsupplements.partica.online/defence-technology-review-supplement/dtr-adf-guided-weapons-munitions-special-supplement/flipbook/10/

jolihokistix

17th Aug 2023, 11:51

South Korean.
Presumably effective against N Korean weaponry (which is largely of Chinese and/or Russian origin.)

fdr

17th Aug 2023, 12:12

Amazing what can be built on reefs

watch this space, Vietnamese are excellent at building tunnels... !

There is little love lost between VN and PRC, VN is a refreshing place to visit nowdays, hope they object strongly to the imposition by the bullies.

ORAC

18th Aug 2023, 11:52

fdr

18th Aug 2023, 13:23

https://streetwiseprofessor.com/why-china-is-shtupped-a-synthesis/

Why China is Shtupped - a Synthesis.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/08/17/china-property-crash-becomes-more-dangerous/

China’s property crash is becoming more dangerous by the day

The country’s ticking time bomb economy is nearing the point of detonation

(Can be read using https://12ft.io )

Yup. Xi's window of distraction just slammed shut, the last thing he needs now is the rest of the economy to collapse as a follow on to NeverGrande, which won't be #2's for a while until the next hundred odd bubble property developers collapse past their position in the drain. China needs foreign exports to maintain a stable social order, their nouveau riche middle class are in the process of being wiped out on their property investments. It will hit a lot of SEA and other regions of the world too, but the enormity of the irrational bubble development in China surpasses our previous exuberant excesses.

buckle up, they are in for a bumpy ride, the only obvious winners are... Taiwan, Mr Xi's is busy right now, he will get right back to harassing the SCS nations just as soon as he puts out the fire that 40 years of lunacy has torched.

T28B

18th Aug 2023, 13:29

notasmodnoradmin
China's economy is very large, and is a very important piece of the global economy.
If they crash, won't we all feel it?

ORAC

18th Aug 2023, 13:49

buckle up, they are in for a bumpy ride, the only obvious winners are... Taiwan,
Worryingly the Streetwise Professor feels otherwise….

https://streetwiseprofessor.com/breaking-china/

…Add to this Xi’s reading of the history of the Soviet Union. He–not wrongly–attributes the collapse of the USSR to Gorbachev’s attempt to loosen the grip of the state and the party over the economy. Xi is hell-bent on avoiding the same mistake. As a result he is consciously adopting an anti-Gorbachev strategy….

On the other hand, intractable domestic problems can lead a personalist system–and China is clearly that now, in contrast to the more collectivist leadership of the post-Mao, pre-Xi era–to ramp up the foreign adventurism.

This is particularly true when the personalist person is a seventy-something guy who wants to cement his place in history by, say, “liberating” Taiwan.

Prudence and an objective reading of Xi leads me to place greater weight on the latter possibility. Prudence, because it is the alternative that poses the greatest threat to the United States. Objective reading because of the Xi-as-anti-Gorbachev phenomenon discussed above.

Gorbachev’s rapprochement to the United States was driven in large part by his recognition of the strategic and geopolitical ramifications of the USSR’s deep structural economic problems. A player of the Gorbachev Opposite Game–a fair characterization of Xi–would ramp up tension, rather than attempt to ameliorate it….

Lonewolf_50

18th Aug 2023, 15:30

I'll take SWP with a grain of salt.
But, if SWP is on the right track, the Taiwan factor begins to look a little like the Falklands factor was for Argentina in '82.
There is some talk about how far behind in deliveries various defense materials are for Taiwan (somewhere around $10 billion US worth) that are delayed due to deliveries to Ukraine, but I am not sure how much noise there is in that complaint, and how much substance.

One difference with the Falklands and Taiwan (besides sheer size and scale) is that there's a reasonably well equipped, and reasonably well trained, armed forces on hand.

Asturias56

18th Aug 2023, 16:15

there were in the Falklands - the only problem was they were Argentinean...........

fdr

18th Aug 2023, 21:30

notasmodnoradmin
China's economy is very large, and is a very important piece of the global economy.
If they crash, won't we all feel it?

China has expanded it's internal economy through the rise of the middle class over the last 45 years. They have a high end consumerism associated with that, but otherwise the rest of the world provides food (china is not self sustaining in food supply), raw materials including energy. The middle class developed wealth through the arbitrage of production for the rest of the world, and from the property boom that PRC allowed and encouraged to occur. Their property boom didn't make sense 33 years ago, and has almost exactly the same fundamental problems today. The xenophobic business practices of the PRC makes the impact of a property collapse particularly relevant to the PRC. Their domestic demand will reduce during a market correction in their property market and that mainly affects their developers, manufacturing demand will soften where there is any flow on outside of their borders.

Xi will need to cope with a loss of confidence of his middle class and concern of the rest related to the adverse conditions, and the need to actually do something other than be isolated in ignorance due to his penchant of removing life from the bodies of messengers with unpalatable reports. Having a regional tiff from grandiose, empire expansion plans, mainly against the countries that feed your population, wasting domestic reserves... not a good look, not even in Vladland.

Taiwan still needs regional and global support to keep Xi at bay, that doesn't go away, but Xi's attention will be preoccupied in reducing the impact of a bubble burst that has grown over a long time, and while apparent, has not had any intervention.

havoc

23rd Aug 2023, 21:37

Philippine supply boats breach a Chinese coast guard blockade in the hotly contested South China Sea (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/philippine-supply-boats-breach-a-chinese-coast-guard-blockade-in-the-hotly-contested-south-china-sea/ar-AA1fEpTw?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e70e23d68c544fbeb3f2cc1d9d895f91&ei=91)

havoc

23rd Aug 2023, 21:51

Night Stalker Helicopters Train To Defend Strategic Alaskan Island (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/night-stalker-helicopters-train-to-defend-strategic-alaskan-island/ar-AA1fFVnF?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=e70e23d68c544fbeb3f2cc1d9d895f91&ei=168)

ORAC

24th Aug 2023, 10:51

https://twitter.com/wjhurst/status/1693443216551334338?s=20

Along with most other scholars of my generation, I've been studying political economy in China for more than 25 years. What's happening there is not so simple as 'party's over'. For a little context and analysis, here is a brief :

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1693443216551334338.html

pr00ne

25th Aug 2023, 10:03

notasmodnoradmin
China's economy is very large, and is a very important piece of the global economy.
If they crash, won't we all feel it?

Not really, they produce nothing strategic for us (the West), mainly a cheap low cost provider of consumer goods and low value engineered goods, much of which production is gradually being reshored back to the West anyway. They are undoubtedly a large importer of western luxury goods but the economy of the west is not built on luxury goods manufacture.

Barksdale Boy

25th Aug 2023, 12:31

Not really, they produce nothing strategic for us (the West), mainly a cheap low cost provider of consumer goods and low value engineered goods, much of which production is gradually being reshored back to the West anyway. They are undoubtedly a large importer of western luxury goods but the economy of the west is not built on luxury goods manufacture.
Those words may come back to haunt you.

Asturias56

25th Aug 2023, 13:16

The top exports of China are Broadcasting Equipment (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/broadcasting-equipment/reporter/chn) ($231B), Computers (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/computers/reporter/chn) ($192B), Integrated Circuits (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/integrated-circuits/reporter/chn) ($158B), Office Machine Parts (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/office-machine-parts/reporter/chn) ($101B), and Telephones (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/telephones/reporter/chn) ($53.9B), exporting mostly to United States (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/usa/partner/chn) ($530B), Hong Kong (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/hkg/partner/chn) ($323B), Japan (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/jpn/partner/chn) ($168B), South Korea (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/kor/partner/chn) ($140B), and Germany (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/deu/partner/chn) ($134B).

In 2021, China was the world's biggest exporter of Broadcasting Equipment (https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/broadcasting-equipment) ($231B), Computers (https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/computers) ($192B), Office Machine Parts (https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/office-machine-parts) ($101B), Telephones (https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/telephones) ($53.9B), and Semiconductor Devices (https://oec.world/en/profile/hs/semiconductor-devices) ($49.2B)

IMPORTSThe top imports of China are Crude Petroleum (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/crude-petroleum/reporter/chn) ($208B), Integrated Circuits (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/integrated-circuits/reporter/chn) ($171B), Iron Ore (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/iron-ore/reporter/chn) ($146B), Petroleum Gas (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/petroleum-gas/reporter/chn) ($56.6B), and Copper Ore (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-product/copper-ore/reporter/chn) ($52.4B), importing mostly from South Korea (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/kor/partner/chn) ($158B), Japan (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/jpn/partner/chn) ($153B), United States (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/usa/partner/chn) ($151B), Australia (https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/aus/partner/chn) ($138B), and Chinese Taipei ($126B).

and of course all those lovely Airbus and Boeing jets

Last week s Economist noted that the US particularly is trying to cut imports from China - trouble is no-one else makes the stuff so they have to go to outfits in India, S E Asia - who import the stuff from China - rebadge it and....................

West Coast

25th Aug 2023, 16:30