The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

[rattman]

But it cost you.................. "China imposed a A$24bn ($16bn) hit on Australia, representing 5.5% of its total annual exports."

and you're still exporting to them

It didn't overall. Now going to lead into this by saying I work for a mining company in IT so dont actually know mining but have lunch with actual miners who know the industry

The mine I worked at was 100% going to china. Now the embargo drops, panic sets in as we 100% export to china through 3rd parties. Thing is being a new mine they had to spend billions to get it setup, for this you apply to international banks for development loans. As a company you have no history of assets to take a loan out against. So they look at what long term supply contracts you have, the buyers know this so they play hardball and you have to give them fairly substantial discounts on the spot price to get them sign up for the 10 years.

Now that they are buying the contracts null and void. We had indian and taiwanese buyers knocking down our door to buy the discounted former chinese supply. Cant speak for the other companies and industries but the embargo was great for the company I work for we, 15-20% extra profit over the estimates. Now the embargo is dropped the chinese buyers are back but we have no excess production to sell. We are selling to india, Taiwan and Japanese buyers with any excess above the contracted supply put onto the global market and thats generally ending up in china but its small percentage of our production. Work on 10%

Not all industries are the same, but minerals and a primary are fungiable, its not that hard to find new buyers. Australia accounts for 61% of china's iron ore imports. War happens, immediately 61% of the iron ore used to make ships, tanks, guns is gone. 40% of their thermal coal is gone, 70% metalogical coal is gone. Thats not including the probable naval blockade

OH and just an edit for much of an effect a war with china in the indo is going to effect everyone. BIggest, by dollar, exporter of coal in the world is Australia. The biggest exporter of coal, by tonnage, is indonesia. Both next door and both in the firing line of any indopacific war

[Bug]

But it cost you.................. "China imposed a A$24bn ($16bn) hit on Australia, representing 5.5% of its total annual exports."

and you're still exporting to them

And Australian exporters found other markets for the goods, as per rattman post above.
Hopefully exporters learned a valuable lesson about not putting all your eggs in one basket, although greed and western "short-termism" will probably trump common sense!

[layman]

Australian lobster (median price) was around $250/kg pre trade-war and dropped to around $100/kg afterwards.

While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.

[Bug]

Australian lobster (median price) was around $250/kg pre trade-war and dropped to around $100/kg afterwards.

While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.
Some might argue that the $250/kg was a fools paradise. I'm not saying that if were in their shoes I wouldn't have taken it, but I would hope that now I would diversify my export destinations.

[rattman]

Australian lobster (median price) was around $250/kg pre trade-war and dropped to around $100/kg afterwards.

While I hope exporters have filed away their 'lessons learned', I can understand why fishermen (and other exporters) would take the risk, the rewards are fairly healthy.

We did 750 million in lobster exports. we did 110 billion in coal. Lobster isn't even a blip on the graph. Covid had a much bigger effect than the a embargo.

Also wine got hit pretty badly, lots of good wine was suddenly available in AUS at bottom dollar.

[layman]

rattman

Quite agree about the relative importance, with irion ore exports also worth over $100 Bn a year.

What I was attempting to highlight was the 'incentives' the Chinese market privudes for a whole range of exporters.

As i see it, high reward, high risk, and not necessarily in Australia's best long-term interest..

[Buster Hyman]

The Lobsters don't come back weaponised...🤔 well...not yet.

[Bug]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x1079/image_a51a243f401598ca2189e2a3ae10c73057c14a70.png
Xi cannot afford to attempt to invade Taiwan and fail!
It would presumably lead to his downfall.

[Captain Dart]

The Lobsters don't come back weaponised...🤔 well...not yet.

They got sidetracked looking for Jayne Mansfield’s bottom.

[Gnadenburg]

Some reports now suggesting water in the rockets fake news.

[rattman]

Some reports now suggesting water in the rockets fake news.

Always assumed it was, You aren't going to keep water in rockets that are susceptable to corrosion. Just think its a translation error, "water filling" (water filling came from injecting meat with water to increase its weght) is a chinese slang for corruption. Western equiv would be padding the budget

[Lyneham Lad]

Latest update on Taiwan's general election. Standby for some more harassing moves from the mainland.
Taiwan ruling party’s Lai Ching-te wins presidential election (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/13/taiwan-ruling-partys-lai-ching-te-wins-presidential-election?CMP=share_btn_link)

Lai Ching-te, the presidential candidate for Taiwan’s ruling party, has won an election that China had framed as a choice between war and peace.

The candidate for Taiwan’s main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT), Hou Yu-ih, conceded defeat in the election.

Lai’s Democratic Progressive party, which champions Taiwan’s separate identity and rejects China’s territorial claims, was seeking a third term, unprecedented under Taiwan’s current electoral system.

Lai was facing two opponents for the presidency – the KMT’s Hou and former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je of the small Taiwan People’s party, only founded in 2019.

Speaking to reporters in the southern city of Tainan before voting, Lai encouraged people to cast their ballots.

“Every vote is valued, as this is Taiwan’s hard-earned democracy,” he said in brief remarks.

In the run-up to the election, China repeatedly denounced Lai as a dangerous separatist and rebuffed his repeated calls for talks. Lai says he is committed to preserving peace across the Taiwan strait and boosting the island’s defences.

Taiwan’s defence ministry said on Saturday morning it had again spotted Chinese balloons crossing the sensitive strait, one of which flew over Taiwan itself. The ministry has denounced the spate of balloons reported over the strait in the past month as psychological warfare and a threat to aviation safety.

Click the link for the full article.

[Asturias56]

Generally known as William Lai I believe

Big Brother will be very unhappy for sure................

[DogTailRed2]

Taiwan election: China says US 'gravely wrong' to congratulate new leader - BBC News (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67974541)

[Lonewolf_50]

And the arms race continues.
China unveils hypersonic missile based on US ‘Dream Shell’ concept (interestingengineering.com) (https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-smart-gps-guided-shell)
MIldly interesting article about hypersonic munitions that China are working on

[ORAC]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4422324-crisis-taiwan-strait-likely-2024/

Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say

A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.

That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.

Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….

[DogTailRed2]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4422324-crisis-taiwan-strait-likely-2024/

Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say

A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.

That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.

Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….

Make or break for America. How does it respond? With force and end up in a costly war. With restraint and look weak. Dangerous times ahead. Of course if Trump gets in who knows?

[Asturias56]

Can't see it - not when Xi is busy purging the PLA and its top generals. He's just got the economy more or less back on track after COVID and even then there are mutterings amongst the people. The only thing that would kick something off this year would be Taiwanese declaration of Independence

[admikar]

Can't see it - not when Xi is busy purging the PLA and its top generals. He's just got the economy more or less back on track after COVID and even then there are mutterings amongst the people. The only thing that would kick something off this year would be Taiwanese declaration of Independence
That's exactly the reason that might trigger it. Politicians prefer to stir **** to keep populace's attention off of some bigger ****.

[Big Pistons Forever]

https://thehill.com/policy/international/4422324-crisis-taiwan-strait-likely-2024/

Crisis in the Taiwan Strait likely in 2024, experts say

A majority of experts said they believe a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is likely in 2024, with a Chinese blockade or “quarantine” of the island seen as the most likely scenario.

That’s according to a new survey from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which asked 87 leading U.S. and Taiwanese experts on cross-strait relations for their expectations for the future.

Most of these experts said China has the “capabilities to execute a law enforcement led-quarantine [or] a People’s Liberation Army (PLA)-led blockade of Taiwan,” but fewer believed a forceful invasion was possible….

This is a nightmare scenario for the US and Taiwan. Taiwan can only survive in its present form with unrestricted routes for the import and export of goods. An illegal blockade would eventually bring Taiwan to its knees and force a de facto take over by China. I just don't see the US willing to go kinetic on PLA armed platforms blockading Taiwan. Without that as a realistic threat the US will have conceded the straits and then it is only a matter of time before Taiwan gets strangled.

The only other option is a full on US China trade war with the US cutting off enough trade to really hurt China including arm twisting the EU to fall in line, something else I just don't happening because of the economic pain that that will inflict on the EU and the US.

[T28B]

As neither Mod nor Admin I just don't happening because of the economic pain that that will inflict on the EU and the US.
That's certainly a limiting factor, and since America is an election year economic pain becomes an issue in getting votes.
Timing seems to favor China.

[ORAC]

https://apnews.com/article/china-japanese-fishing-boat-east-china-sea-2f06976f0c6b471bc64f6c864c68fd61

China orders a Japanese fishing boat to leave waters near Japan-held islands claimed by Beijing

BEIJING (AP) — China’s coast guard said Saturday its officers ordered a Japanese fishing vessel and several patrol ships to leave waters surrounding tiny Japanese-controlled islands (https://apnews.com/article/china-japan-diaoyu-senkaku-islands-4f593b06c8398769e7da9b0a25fb0f6c) in the East China Sea. It marked the latest incident pointing to lingering tensions between the sides (https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-china-japan-asia-tokyo-44df15b19e710fb8da38e69deae85b53).

China says the islands belong to it and refuses to recognize Japan’s claim to the uninhabited chain known as the Senkakus in Japanese and Diaoyu in Chinese. Taiwan also claims the islands, which it calls Diaoyutai, but has signed access agreements for its fishermen with Japan and does not actively take part in the dispute.

Coast guard spokesperson Gan Yu said in a statement that the vessels “illegally entered” the waters, prompting its response. “We urge Japan to stop all illegal activities in the waters immediately and to ensure similar incidents would not happen again,” the statement said. But the statement did not specify whether the vessels complied with the order.

China’s insistence on sovereignty over the islands is part of its expansive territorial claims in the Pacific, including to underwater resources in the East China Sea, the self-governing island republic of Taiwan (https://apnews.com/article/us-china-taiwan-military-b7d7f4e8ee181301b0b0ceefc1dce74b) with its population of 23 million, and virtually the entire South China Sea, through which an estimated $5 trillion in international trade passes each year.

As with the Senkakus, China largely bases its claims on vague historical precedents. Taiwan, a former Japanese colony, split from mainland China in 1949 amid the Chinese Civil War.

The islands lie between Taiwan and Okinawa, 330 kilometers (205 miles) off the Chinese coast. Following World War II, they were administered by the United States and returned to Japanese sovereignty in 1972.

[Asturias56]

"As with the Senkakus, China largely bases its claims on vague historical precedents."

Almost all disputed claims are like that - the Indo Chinese Border, Falklands, Beagle Channel, Gib., Guyana................... both sides claim "historic precedents":(

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1753290508376613370?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China Is Quietly Expanding Its Land Grabs in the Himalayas

….The Chinese expanded in the Beyul to coerce Bhutan into ceding control of a more strategic area near India, the Doklam plateau, but it has since expanded in both regions and upped the ante without any repercussions or costs.

“It’s not surprising that China is claiming Khenpajong and Doklam areas,” Sangay said. “China is implementing what it said in the 1950s, that Tibet is the palm and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan, and Arunachal are five fingers. First occupy Tibet, then we occupy five fingers,” he added in reference to Mao Zedong’s imperialist vision for three Indian states and Nepal and Bhutan….

In 2017, India and China nearly went to war as Chinese soldiers tried to extend a road from Chumbi Valley in the TAR to Doklam, all the way to the Jampheri ridge, which offers a direct view to the Siliguri corridor—India’s Achilles’s heel.

It connects the rest of India to seven federal states in the northeast and is just 14 miles wide, which makes it militarily easy to sever. If China gets access to the Jampheri ridge, it can better surveil the Siliguri corridor, often dubbed the “chicken’s neck,” and have huge leverage over India.

The tense standoff finally subsided as the Chinese stepped back, but that didn’t stop China from further expanding in Doklam. China built a whole village called Pangda inside the plateau, at a distance of just a few miles from the key ridge.

“There is a stalemate with a large number of Indian troops stationed in the area,” Sangay said. “But the Chinese have built major infrastructure with a permanent helipad and army camp. They are there to stay. Bhutan is under tremendous pressure to compromise, which means to give strategic advantage to Chinese troops.”…
​​​​​​​

[Asturias56]

Indian sources aren't exactly bias -free .:(

Interesting that the Indians want to keep their control over Bhutan

[ORAC]

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/02/04/japan/china-ships-warn-sdf-over-senkaku/

Chinese ships warn Japan SDF planes to leave airspace near Senkakus

BEIJING – China Coast Guard vessels began last month to issue warnings for Japanese Self-Defense Forces planes to leave airspace over and around the Japan-controlled, China-claimed Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, sources familiar with the matter said.

The warnings via radio communications are based on Beijing's claim that SDF aircraft could violate Chinese territorial airspace around the islands, called Diaoyu in China, and have been made several times since January, the sources said Saturday.

They said Tokyo has refuted the claim and told Beijing through diplomatic channels that such warnings are "totally unacceptable," without publicly announcing the move in an apparent effort not to damage bilateral relations further.…

[DogTailRed2]

"As with the Senkakus, China largely bases its claims on vague historical precedents."

Almost all disputed claims are like that - the Indo Chinese Border, Falklands, Beagle Channel, Gib., Guyana................... both sides claim "historic precedents":(
While I agree Britain's acquisition of the Falklands was dubious once people live there I think the politics changes somewhat. You have to accept that people living somewhere sets a precedence that cannot be overulled by force especially when a long period of time has elapsed.

[Ninthace]

Tell that to the Normans - didn't stop them!

[Asturias56]

"While I agree Britain's acquisition of the Falklands was dubious once people live there I think the politics changes somewhat. You have to accept that people living somewhere sets a precedence that cannot be overulled by force especially when a long period of time has elapsed."

I agree totally - but that has never stopped politicians claiming other people's territory. :(

[ORAC]

Another week…

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1754820030536249457?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Taiwanese chip giant TSMC has announced plans for a second fab in Kumamoto, Japan, investing $7.4 billion

The new fab, built by a TSMC subsidiary, is scheduled to come online at the end of 2027.

Taiwanese chip makers expand into other countries, just in case..........

​​​​​​​https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1754694056071032995?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Chinese ships harassing Vietnam's gas fields in the South China Sea

​​​​​​​

[nomorecatering]

I think China is all bluff and bluster. They simply cannot take Taiwan, much less hold Taiwan. Anyone who has studied D Day in 1944 will understand why. But..............they CAN make an awful mess.

Every day, China is getting poorer and poorer. You just have to look at video shot by average Chinese citizens. Shopping malls and cities are ghost towns.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLEUGNiZs9M&t=10s

[Biggus]

nomorecatering

While I"m not saying it will necessarily apply in this situation, quite often (dictatorial) leadership in a country will use an external situation/threat that it hopes/expects will unify the populace to distract from internal woes.

So China being in a bad way may not actually be good news.

Read the Argentine Junta and the Falklands in 1982.... maybe Xi and Taiwan in 202?....

[ORAC]

https://fortune.com/asia/2024/02/06/china-stock-rout-regulators-xi-jinping-brief-plans-rescue-markets/

China’s $7 trillion stock rout is getting so bad that officials are briefing President Xi Jinping on how they plan to rescue markets

[Video Mixdown]

nomorecatering
While I"m not saying it will necessarily apply in this situation, quite often (dictatorial) leadership in a country will use an external situation/threat that it hopes/expects will unify the populace to distract from internal woes.
So China being in a bad way may not actually be good news.
Read the Argentine Junta and the Falklands in 1982.... maybe Xi and Taiwan in 202?....
It's a huge personal risk though. The moment he rolls the iron dice he loses control of events, as Putin is finding out. If he tries and fails they won't just take his power, money, villas and yachts away. They'll kill him.

[Biggus]

As I said, it may not apply in this instance.....but then again....

How much of a gambler is Xi, and if the internal situation deteriorates sufficiently will the gamble seem more attractive?

[Video Mixdown]

As I said, it may not apply in this instance.....but then again....
How much of a gambler is Xi, and if the internal situation deteriorates sufficiently will the gamble seem more attractive?
Unanswerable with no knowledge of the man. Given the evidence of how the careers of dictators often end, personally I’d find an excuse to hand the problem over to a successor/fall guy while I still could and try to enjoy a comfortable retirement somewhere.

[T28B]

How much of a gambler is Xi, and if the internal situation deteriorates sufficiently will the gamble seem more attractive? That's a thorny question.
Only Xi knows the answer to that.

[Biggus]

Well it's a lot easier to pose thorny questions than to answer them. But I'm sure some people on here will have, and share, their opinions/answers.

I guess only time will provide the ultimate answer.

[fdr]

"As with the Senkakus, China largely bases its claims on vague historical precedents."

Almost all disputed claims are like that - the Indo Chinese Border, Falklands, Beagle Channel, Gib., Guyana................... both sides claim "historic precedents":(

Historically, then DRC, Rwanda, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, Ethiopia, and even bits 'o Jordan would have a claim to the SCS, Taiwan, and Qin, Mongolia, Senkaku's Vladivostok, Kamchatka etc, and Moscow.... and St Petersburg etc. That is where we all came from apparently, that gives those areas more of a claim than China has.

[nomorecatering]

As Peter Zeihan put it (much more elequantly than me). Chairman Xi order of prioroties is 1, preservation of himself 2. the party. He will sacrifice the entire country if it preserves the power of the CCP to rule over what ever glowing piles of ash there is left of China. That's the main worry.

[Spunky Monkey]

Perhaps we all have it wrong?
The rhetoric about the reunification of China and Taiwan being the bogey man is all just bluster for the domestic audience, to keep them from seeing what a basket case the country is becoming.
They would struggle to take Taiwan and even if they did, the international backlash would be severe, likely crippling the Chinese economy further.

The metropolitan Chinese love their new improved "Western" lifestyle.
That would be seriously curtailed in a war with Taiwan and skirmishes with the US and Japan.
No doubt the Norks would join in and the South Koreans would have something to say about the situation too.

China has nothing to gain from this.

[GeeRam]

Perhaps we all have it wrong?
The rhetoric about the reunification of China and Taiwan being the bogey man is all just bluster for the domestic audience, to keep them from seeing what a basket case the country is becoming.
They would struggle to take Taiwan and even if they did, the international backlash would be severe, likely crippling the Chinese economy further.

The metropolitan Chinese love their new improved "Western" lifestyle.
That would be seriously curtailed in a war with Taiwan and skirmishes with the US and Japan.
No doubt the Norks would join in and the South Koreans would have something to say about the situation too.

China has nothing to gain from this.

That's what everyone in the west was saying about Russia in the months leading up to Pootin's Special Military Cluster****.

[Biggus]

It's not about what China has to gain/lose, it's about what Xi (And just maybe the CCP) has to gain/lose.

As demonstrated by Putin.

[Spunky Monkey]

Absolutely GeeRam, however everyone has seen how the Russians have ballsed it up.
The Ukrainians had terrible kit, leadership and training in the early days.
The Taiwanese are a completely different proposition.
The quality of the kit the Chinese have, based on CCCP designs is not adequate for the job.
There would be a massacre crossing the straits in the initial days and the Chinese won't stand for that.

Xi has boxed himself into a corner. It was all dandy when the economy was growing at 7% a year. Now its likely in reverse.
He can't retire, because like Putin too many rely on him for their wealth and power.
They will turn on him like a pack of hungry dogs.

[Asturias56]

he'll just be quietly shunted aside - with a possible rumour of "medical reasons" . If he's lucky he'll be seen in public looking frail in about 5 years after the change of regime

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1755177921130758381?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Japan is increasingly alarmed by the constant presence of Chinese vessels near the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea amid concerns that the row over the area could escalate and mirror recent maritime altercations between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea.

Chinese warships have been spotted in the area and near the boundaries of Japan’s Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ), the Japanese defence ministry said on Wednesday without specifying a period of their presence, according to a report by the Yomiuri newspaper.

Japan deployed airborne early warning aircraft and at least one marine destroyer in response to Chinese vessels sailing near the disputed islands.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1179/image_d7329b9476dc904a4ff2e4c687ae15788767726a.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1755112350334734476?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Philippine Navy Alarmed By The Presence Of Over 200 Chinese ships At Mischief Reef

The Philippine Navy is concerned about more than 200 Chinese warships in the West Philippine Sea. These include People’s Liberation Army-Navy ships, maritime militia trawlers, and China Coast Guard vessels.

The swarm is centered on Mischief Reef, a disputed region under Chinese sovereignty only 20 nautical miles from Second Thomas Shoal, which the Philippines occupy.

The Philippine Navy’s spokesperson in the West Philippine Sea, Commodore Roy Vincent Trinidad, announced the fleet assembly while underlining how difficult it is to give a precise count because of the fleet’s frequent movement….

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x901/image_ca428c3922b000982e86d3882469f2155f928ba7.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/eye-on-taiwan-us-readying-drone-ship-attack-fleet/

Eye on Taiwan, US readying drone ship attack fleet

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2024/02/06/supplier-bottlenecks-threaten-us-navy-effort-to-grow-arms-stockpiles/

Supplier bottlenecks threaten US Navy effort to grow arms stockpiles

[ORAC]

https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/philippines-gunning-for-fast-and-massive-military-build-up/

Philippines gunning for fast and massive military build-up

[ORAC]

https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/chinas-new-microwave-weapon-made-to-zap-taiwan/

China’s new microwave weapon made to zap Taiwan

In what may be the first of its kind, Chinese scientists have unveiled a new Stirling engine-powered high-power microwave (HPM) weapon, marking a significant leap in directed-energy warfare technology with possible applications in future urban warfare scenarios.…..

[ORAC]

China’s Happy New Year gala……

https://x.com/stephenmcdonell/status/1755983752512307438?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[India Four Two]

From the comments under ORAC's video:

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/680x383/gf8ak3sbgaal1qv_ce526764cda5a9849f243cb9e6dc4cb2ae79a7ef.jpe g

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/air/2024/02/21/india-prepares-to-buy-15-c295-maritime-patrol-variants/

India prepares to buy 15 C295 maritime patrol variants

CHRISTCHURCH, New Zealand — India is moving closer to buying 15 maritime patrol variants of the Airbus C295 aircraft, following permission from the country’s Defence Acquisition Council.

This initial approval from Feb. 16, called acceptance of necessity in Defence Ministry parlance, will see the Navy receive nine C295 medium-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft and the Coast Guard get six C295 multimission maritime aircraft.

Once a contract is signed, a joint venture between the French firm Airbus and the Indian business Tata Advanced Systems Ltd. would manufacture the aircraft in India.

The Air Force previously placed a contract for 56 C295 transport aircraft, of which the first 16 are under production in Spain and the remainder in Tata’s final assembly line in the Indian city of Vadodara.

Although Airbus offers a maritime patrol version of the C295 — Spain ordered (https://www.defensenews.com/industry/2023/12/21/spain-orders-airbus-maritime-patrol-surveillance-aircraft-for-2b/) 16 in December — the Indian Navy and Coast Guard platforms will receive locally made sensors such as an active electronically scanned array radar, identification friend or foe systems, data links, and electro-optic/infrared technology.

The Centre for Airborne Systems, a branch of the Defence Research and Development Organisation, is developing this equipment as part of the government’s efforts toward greater self-sufficiency in defense production.

Medium-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft would help India monitor nearby waters as well as gather electronic and communications intelligence. The aircraft would supplement 12 P-8I aircraft used for anti-submarine warfare.

With around 11 hours of endurance, the variant would also provide longer-range capability than existing Dornier 228 aircraft. The Navy is also set to receive 15 MQ-9B SeaGuardian (https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2024/02/01/biden-administration-moves-forward-on-india-drone-sale/) drones to boost maritime surveillance.

The Indian government has expressed concern about the Chinese military’s activities in the Indian Ocean, and the Indian Navy has carried out anti-piracy operations in the nearby Gulf of Aden since 2008…..

[ORAC]

Musk blocking Starshield to US forces in Taiwan - presumably because he doesn’t want to offend China…

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/24/house-china-committee-elon-musk-spacex-starshield-taiwan.html

House China committee demands Elon Musk open SpaceX Starshield internet to U.S. troops in Taiwan

KEY POINTS

The House China committee sent a letter on Saturday to Elon Musk demanding that U.S. troops stationed in Taiwan get access to SpaceX’s Starshield, a satellite communication network designed specifically for the military.



The letter came after Committee Chair Rep. Mike Gallagher and a delegation of lawmakers returned from a Taiwan visit where they learned that Starshield was not operational for American troops in and around the region.



Taiwan governs itself independently of China, but Beijing officials have repeatedly made clear their intention to reunify the sovereign island with the mainland.

[VictorWatcher]

I've often wondered about an easy way of bringing Taiwan to its knees. The majority of the electricity for Taipei is generated away from the city and brought in via very few power lines. I would have thought a few chaps with some semtex could knock out a few of the electrical pylons and take out the power from the city. That would essentially stop Taipei in its tracks as they electricity for everything - including bringing water in.

[Lonewolf_50]

A bit to the east, but related ...
U.S. Coast Guardsmen inspected two Chinese vessels this month while screening the South Pacific for illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing, according to an agency official. The U.S. Coast Guard and accompanying police officers from Kiribati boarded the fishing boats while on a joint patrol of the Pacific island nation's vast exclusive economic zone (EEZ), a Coast Guard spokesperson told Reuters on Monday. No issues were reported, the spokesperson said.

An EEZ extends 200 nautical miles from the coastline and grants countries a sovereign right to exploit underwater resources, such as vital fish stocks, within its limits. But they can be difficult to enforce for small nations like Kiribati, which had a population of just over 130,000, according to United Nations figures.

[rattman]

I've often wondered about an easy way of bringing Taiwan to its knees. The majority of the electricity for Taipei is generated away from the city and brought in via very few power lines. I would have thought a few chaps with some semtex could knock out a few of the electrical pylons and take out the power from the city. That would essentially stop Taipei in its tracks as they electricity for everything - including bringing water in.


yeah commit an act of war, certainly would bring taipei and SCS to its knees

[ORAC]

https://www.defensehere.com/en/us-permanently-deploys-training-mission-in-taiwan

US permanently deploys training mission in Taiwan

In an unprecedented move, US Special forces troops will be permanently stationed in Taiwan, Republic of China. According to Taiwan's United Daily News (UDN), the American 1st Special Forces Group is deployed for a permanent training mission on the island.

The 1st Special Forces Group is permanently stationed this year at two bases of the 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion, a Taiwanese army special operations force.

Some of the US troops are based on Kinmen, a group of Taiwanese-controlled islands 10 kilometers from Xiamen, a Chinese port city. Another group is located on the Pescadores islands off the Taiwanese coast.

American troop presence in Taiwan contradicts China's "One China" policy, where the US is expected to recognize Beijing as the legitimate government of all China, including Taiwan.

The US has sent training missions to the island before but none has been reported to be permanent (https://www.newsweek.com/american-troops-taiwan-training-forces-president-tsai-ing-wen-confirms-1643347)…..

[ORAC]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3253876/japan-plans-more-bomb-shelters-outlying-islands-amid-growing-concern-over-taiwan-tensions

Japan plans more bomb shelters for outlying islands amid ‘growing concern’ over Taiwan tensions
.

Design guidelines for bomb shelters are expected to be completed next month, while proposals for evacuation of residents on remote islands are also being drawn up.


Officials are also identifying existing buildings on outlying islands to be modified to provide shelter and sufficient supplies for residents whose mobility may be limited.

The Japanese government recently announced plans for the construction of bomb shelters on the outlying islands of Okinawa prefecture, spurred by the growing potential for conflict between mainland China and Taiwan.

Masafumi Iida, a leading China analyst at the National Institute for Defence Studies in Tokyo, told This Week in Asia there was “growing concern” in Tokyo that, should such a conflict break out, there is “only a small percentage of chance” that it would not involve Japan in some way.

National broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday that design guidelines would be completed by the end of March before the proposals were presented to local governments. Basement levels of existing public facilities, such as schools, town halls and libraries, are likely to be the most appropriate venues.

Plans for shelters are in addition to proposals being drawn up for the evacuation of civilian residents of remote islands that have Japanese military facilities and might therefore become targets. Those plans, outlined in recent defence white papers, call for residents to be evacuated by sea or by air to the main Okinawa island and then to southern Kyushu.

Tokyo is concerned, however, that a sudden outbreak of hostilities involving Taiwan and close to Japanese islands such as Yonaguni – which is only 111km from Taiwan – would not give the Japanese authorities time to conduct an evacuation, meaning that residents would be required to shelter in place.

NHK reported that government officials had been examining existing structures on the islands and had identified robust concrete buildings that could be modified to provide shelter. Such buildings would be retrofitted with concrete walls at least 30cm thick to withstand missile and bomb blasts, and be equipped with independent power sources, communications systems and storage for food and medical supplies.

The proposal calls for every person to have 2 square metres (21.5 square feet) of space and for the supplies to be sufficient to support evacuees for up to two weeks.…..

[ORAC]

Seem to be actually ramming them off course as well.

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1764937662044238287?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​4 #Filipinos hurt after 2 #China Coast Guard ships use water cannons on PH Ayungin resupply vessel, shattering the wind shield of the ship on March 5.

[West Coast]

A follow on report from ORAC’s post above.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2024/03/06/south-china-sea-dispute-philippines-china-coast-guard-watson-lkl-ovn-intl-ldn-vpx.cnn

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1765733102176129131?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China announces ‘excessive’ baseline in Gulf of Tonkin

Another attempt to take Vietnamese waters?

​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/army-intelligence-analyst-charged-selling-military-secrets-to-china/

Army intelligence analyst charged with selling military secrets to contact in China for $42,000

Washington — An active duty Army soldier and intelligence analyst spent over a year selling sensitive military documents related to the U.S. defense of Taiwan (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taiwan-election-2024-china-choice-between-peace-war-what-to-know/), weapons systems, and missile defense systems to China, federal prosecutors alleged in an indictment unsealed Thursday and obtained by CBS News.

Sergeant Korbein Schultz is accused of using his top secret security clearance to download classified U.S. government records at the behest of an unnamed individual who claimed to live in Hong Kong, allegedly amassing $42,000 in the process.

He was arrested Thursday and charged with six counts including conspiracy and bribery. According to court filings, Schultz was a sergeant and intelligence analyst and assigned to the 506th Infantry Battalion. The Army said Schultz, 24, of Willis Point, Texas, has been in the service since November 2018.

The charging documents don't name the Chinese government as the recipient of the information or as perpetrators of the scheme, but much of the military information Schutlz is accused to have passed on relates to that country.

Beginning in June 2022, prosecutors said Schultz and his co-conspirator began communicating online and via encrypted messaging applications. He was instructed to prioritize passing along "original and exclusive documents" to his handler, including information related to Russia's war in Ukraine (https://www.cbsnews.com/ukraine-crisis/) and the "operabitly of sensitive U.S. military systems and their capabilities," court documents said.

The pair allegedly agreed to enter into a long-term partnership.

By July 2022, investigators alleged Schultz was sending information about High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/himars-ukraines-fight-against-russia/), the type of systems the U.S. has been sending to Ukraine to use against Russia. He is also accused of transmitting sensitive documents about hypersonic equipment and summaries of U.S. military drills in August 2022.

Court documents detailed a months-long exchange in which the unnamed co-conspirator asked for specific documents and Schutlz complied, selling dozens of sensitive records for thousands of dollars at a time.

Money appeared to be his motivation. In one message, Schultz allegedly told his handler, "I need to get my other BMW back."

“I will just keep sending you an abundance of information," he wrote to the coconspirator, according to prosecutors, later expressing a desire to compare himself to Jason Bourne, the fictional spy created by author Robert Ludlum.

By August of 2023, Schultz — whose job was in part to instruct others on the proper handling of classified information — discussed with his Chinese handler the separate arrests that month of two U.S. Navy sailors accused of transmitting sensitive information to China.

Schultz's co conspirators advised him to be careful, court papers revealed.

And in November 2023, prosecutors alleged the handler asked Schultz to discuss work "for the next year."

The charges come days after Massachusetts Air National Guardsman Jack Texeira pleaded guilty (https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/jack-teixeira-guilty-plea-classified-documents-leak-pentagon/) to illegally posting classified military records on an online gaming platform in one of the military's most damaging leak campaigns.

And on Tuesday, an Air Force employee was charged with leaking classified information related to Russia's war in Ukraine to an individual over a foreign dating site.

It was not immediately clear if Schultz had an attorney. His first court appearance will be Friday.

[judyjudy]

Sgt Schultz, eh? Wonder if his defense will be “I know nothing…!”

[DogTailRed2]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/army-intelligence-analyst-charged-selling-military-secrets-to-china/

Army intelligence analyst charged with selling military secrets to contact in China for $42,000

Washington — An active duty Army soldier and intelligence analyst spent over a year selling sensitive military documents related to the U.S. defense of Taiwan (https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taiwan-election-2024-china-choice-between-peace-war-what-to-know/), weapons systems, and missile defense systems to China, federal prosecutors alleged in an indictment unsealed Thursday and obtained by CBS News.

Sergeant Korbein Schultz is accused of using his top secret security clearance to download classified U.S. government records at the behest of an unnamed individual who claimed to live in Hong Kong, allegedly amassing $42,000 in the process.
42k? He sold his soul cheap.

[havoc]

US Army Soldier Sold Taiwan Response Plans to China: DOJ (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-army-soldier-sold-taiwan-response-plans-to-china-doj/ar-BB1jyL2r?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=3b422b51803e4cf99d4b1e5c40cd94c8&ei=41)AU.S. soldier has been arrested at Fort Campbell for allegedly accepting bribes and sending sensitive military information to a China-based co-conspirator, including reports on the potential defense of Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack.

Army intelligence analyst Korbein Schultz faces charges of conspiracy to obtain and disclose national defense information, engaging in a conspiracy to gather and transmit national defense information, unlawfully exporting defense articles without a license, and bribery of a public official, according to the U.S. Department of Justice (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/department-justice).

Schultz's arrest, which came just a day after the arrest of a Chinese national for allegedly stealing proprietary AI information from Google (https://www.newsweek.com/us-arrests-chinese-national-stealing-google-ai-trade-secrets-1876953), highlights U.S. security concerns about Chinese intelligence efforts, particularly in the realm of military intelligence and technological advancements.

"As part of the conspiracy, the defendant provided sensitive government information to his co-conspirator in exchange for thousands of dollars, placing personal profit above the security of the American people," a Department of Defense press statement quoted Assistant Attorney General Matthew Olsen as saying.

The U.S. Army and Justice Department did not immediately respond to written requests for comment.

The federal grand jury indictment reveals that Schultz was contacted by a foreign national who claimed to reside in Hong Kong and work for a geopolitical consulting firm.

From around June 2022 to around October 2023, Schultz received 14 payments from this source, totaling approximately $42,000, for allegedly collecting and transmitting sensitive U.S. military (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/u.s.-military) information, including some that was export-controlled.

One of the contact's requests was for insights into the lessons the U.S. had drawn from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, particularly concerning the defense of Taiwan against a potential attack.

China considers Taiwan a rogue province and has vowed to someday annex it—through force if necessary—though the Chinese Communist Party government in Beijing has never ruled on the democratic island.

The U.S. maintains a longstanding policy of "strategic ambiguity (https://www.newsweek.com/us-taiwan-china-invasion-1712083)," which doesn't commit to or rule out the possibility of defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. However, the 1979 Taiwan relations act requires Washington to sell Taiwan sufficient weaponry to maintain a credible self-defense posture.

Per his China-based contact's instructions, Schultz also allegedly provided sensitive information on U.S military assets, including the HIMARS light rocket launcher, F-22A fighter aircraft, modifications to the country's fleet of nuclear-capable B-52 bombers and hypersonic equipment.

Schultz is also accused of sharing details on operations such as recent Navy exercises in the Philippine Sea and on Chinese observations of these drills, according to the indictment.

Related Articles


US Worried About China-Funded Naval Base (https://www.newsweek.com/china-cambodia-ream-naval-base-funded-worried-1877133)
India Moves 10,000 More Troops to Restive China Border (https://www.newsweek.com/china-india-border-thousands-additional-troops-conflict-1877153)
Chinese Gas Giant Finds New Oilfield in South China Sea (https://www.newsweek.com/china-gas-giant-finds-new-oifield-south-china-sea-1877155)
US Arrests Chinese National for Stealing Google's AI 'Trade Secrets' (https://www.newsweek.com/us-arrests-chinese-national-stealing-google-ai-trade-secrets-1876953)

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1766245537295327416?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Taiwan commanders authorized to use force against intruding enemy military aircraft, vessels

Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) clarified its definition of “first strike,” saying it considered any Chinese military asset crossing into Taiwan’s territorial borders as an act of aggression.

The MND said in a press release Friday (March 8) that if enemy aircraft or vessels intruded into Taiwan’s airspace or waters, then commanders are authorized to take appropriate measures to maintain national defense security when all other non-peaceful means fail.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1297/image_a6c8afa5c81671f7e04e0b8156441e4fef9808de.png
​​​​​​​

[Gnadenburg]

“If they have problems with China, they should not impose it upon us. We do not have a problem with China,” Anwar told reporters.

Prime Minister of Malaysia will be sitting this one out. I guess the Brits and Aussies won’t be able to access their old bases on the Peninsula or Borneo? Singapore knows where its bread is buttered too- on both sides- so they may play similarity. The Straits of Malacca have always been assumed an easy interdiction and choke point on China militarily. Perhaps not so in the future!

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1766426074785976809?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


India frees 10,000 more soldiers to guard border with China

A 10,000-strong unit of soldiers previously assigned to the country’s western border has now been set aside to guard a stretch of its frontier with China, said senior Indian officials who didn’t want to be named because discussions are private.

In addition, an existing contingent of 9,000 soldiers, already designated to the disputed Chinese border, will be brought under the newly created fighting command.

The combined force will guard a 532 km (330.57 miles) stretch of border that separates China’s Tibet region with India’s northern states of Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

The Indian Army and Ministry of Defense declined to comment.

The unprecedented assignment of troops — backed by their own dedicated artillery and air support — to this stretch of the border highlights both the region’s strategic importance and its growing sensitivity in the eyes of India’s leaders.

The area, nestled in the Himalayas, is home to some of Hinduism’s holiest shrines. It has seen huge infrastructure investment and development in the last decade as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has encouraged tourism to the area.

In 2021, India repositioned an additional 50,000 soldiers to patrol its border with China, after a deadly border clash the year before left at least 20 Indian soldiersdead, seriously straining ties.

China and India have since upgraded military-related infrastructure and moved missiles and aircraft to either side of their border, in addition to positioning more troops…..

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x974/image_99bc2c23df7483905b8ba4c2d0ea9e7bd95d40a9.png

[Lonewolf_50]

Two Chinese strategic bombers and a maritime surveillance plane were intercepted by Japanese fighter aircraft above contested waters on Tuesday during a long-range patrol, Japan's Defense Ministry said. The pair of nuclear-capable H-6 bombers were without fighter escorts as they flew a return sortie from the East China Sea (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/east-china-sea) into the Western Pacific via the Miyako Strait, according a map released by the Joint Staff of Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Conventional- and nuclear-armed H-6s (https://www.newsweek.com/china-bomber-h6-strategic-triad-new-exercise-1876378) have an operational range of up to 3,700 miles and a cruising speed of 477 miles per hour, according to the U.S. Army (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/u.s.-army)'s ODIN database of military technologies. Modern variants are designed to launch ballistic missiles at standoff range. The usual cat and mouse game, reported by Newsweek.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1768226440171180384?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


….This month, multiple media outlets reported that India has successfully completed the first flight test of its Agni-5 MIRV missile. This milestone propels India into the elite group of nuclear powers with MIRV technology, including the US, UK, France, China, Russia and Pakistan.

The test was conducted on Abdul Kalam Island in the Bay of Bengal, off India’s northeast coast. While India did not disclose the number of MIRVs involved in the Agni-5 test, it is believed to carry anywhere between two to more than a dozen warheads.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the launch of the solid-fuel, canister-launched Agni-5 missile, part of the Agni series named after the Sanskrit word for “fire,” as a proud moment for the nation.

Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Home Minister Amit Shah highlighted the test’s contribution to Modi’s vision of a self-reliant India.

The solid fuel, canister-launched Agni-5 has a range of over 5,000 kilometers, allowing it to target regions deep within the territories of potential adversaries like China and Pakistan.

The capability is particularly significant given the ongoing border tensions with China and India’s strategic rivalry and tensions with Pakistan, underscoring the missile’s role in national security and deterrence……

​​​​​​​https://asiatimes.com/2024/03/fire-elite-india-blasts-into-the-mirv-nuke-club/

[Lonewolf_50]

Great. More nukes for more targets. It's the 1970s all over again.

[DogTailRed2]

Great. More nukes for more targets. It's the 1970s all over again.
Might be BC very soon.

[henra]

Great. More nukes for more targets. It's the 1970s all over again.
Thanks to good ol' Vlad'....

[rjtjrt]

Given the problems the Australian Defence Force is having in recruitment, is it time for Australia to seek to recruit a Gurkha battalion for the army,
with the promise of citizenship after service.
I would see that as a win/win situation.
It would have to be negotiated and agreed by the Nepalese Government before it could be implemented of course.

[kiwi grey]

Given the problems the Australian Defence Force is having in recruitment, is it time for Australia to seek to recruit a Gurkha battalion for the army,
with the promise of citizenship after service.
I would see that as a win/win situation.
It would have to be negotiated and agreed by the Nepalese Government before it could be implemented of course.

If you wanted to go down that path, why not recruit a Fijian battalion?
Many could already have some military experience, easier integration into the existing Pacific Island community post service, easier cheaper transport.

[rattman]

If you wanted to go down that path, why not recruit a Fijian battalion?
Many could already have some military experience, easier integration into the existing Pacific Island community post service, easier cheaper transport.


They are looking at it, its not a specific Pacific island unit, but they are looking at possibility of pacfic islander recruitment into the general ADF

https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/land/13387-australia-exploring-pacific-recruitment-to-bump-up-adf-numbers

[Biggus]

The Australian Police seem to be running active recruitment programs in the UK to persuade serving British police officers to emigrate.

If they have recruitment problems of their own might we soon see a similar approach by the Australian armed forces?

[rattman]

If they have recruitment problems of their own might we soon see a similar approach by the Australian armed forces?

Again while not specifically targetted recruiting, the lateral transfer program, allows most military, most common US, UK and Canada to join the ADF is currently snowed under with applications.

It used to be around 12 months from Application to first day in ADF. Now non priority can be closer to 24 months

[Bug]

Not sure you are all comparing apples with apples.
A Gurkha battalion would be in a different league to almost any other option, in terms of demonstrated loyalty, esprit, fighting spirit, tenacity, and courage.
They were recognised since 1814 when British had a war with them, as being almost unique.
Pacific island troops are rugged and tough but not always as biddable as the Gurkha troops seem to be.

[Lonewolf_50]

Taiwan Confirms US Troops on Front-Line Islands Near China (newsweek.com) (https://www.newsweek.com/taiwan-confirms-us-troops-front-line-islands-near-china-1880865)

Taiwan has confirmed there are U.S. troops stationed on its islands in the Taiwan Strait on a permanent basis, including an island just over a mile off China's southeast coast.

The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in 2023 paved the way for their arrival to conduct training programs for troops on Taiwan's front line. For sure, this won't trigger more rhetoric and bombast. :p

[Lonewolf_50]

And the signaling continues alongside the arms race. The US Air Force tested a new hypersonic missile on one of its oldest bombers, the B-52H, in the Pacific this past weekend, a major moment for the weapon. The recent test is the first of its kind by the US in the Western Pacific, a demonstration of strength in an often-tense region, particularly due to increasingly aggressive behavior by China (https://www.businessinsider.com/us-army-training-to-counter-aggressive-insidious-china-top-general-2024-2). An Air Force spokesperson told Business Insider on Wednesday, that "a B-52 Stratofortress conducted a test of the All-Up-Round AGM-183A Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon."

"This test," the spokesman said, "launched a full prototype operational hypersonic missile and focused on the ARRW's end-to-end performance. The test took place at the Reagan Test Site with the B-52 taking off from Andersen Air Force Base, Guam, on March 17, 2024, local time."
Andersen Air Force Base in Guam is a key US military position in the Pacific and regularly hosts Air Force bombers for regional operations. This launch of the ARRW marks the first time the US has tested a hypersonic weapon (https://www.businessinsider.com/patriot-kill-shot-impressive-russian-kinzhal-hypersonic-ballistic-missile-experts-2023-5) in the Pacific.
Anderson Air Force Base is also a recently declared target by Mr. Kim's government as they conducted their latest rocket tests.
I have been singing this song on the way to work of late:
https://youtu.be/_38SWIIKITE
https://youtu.be/_38SWIIKITE OK, as requested.

[Ninthace]

Note all. Many users cannot see hyperlinks if they are using Firefox, Edge or Google as their browser. If you put the hyperlink inside a quote, it appears. It's a feature of the website that has been reported but not fixed.

[Bug]

Note all. Many users cannot see hyperlinks if they are using Firefox, Edge or Google as their browser. If you put the hyperlink inside a quote, it appears. It's a feature of the website that has been reported but not fixed.

Pardon my ignorance, but I must confess I am unsure what a "hyperlink" is, and wiki definition not helping.
Is it the link to a YouTube video?

[DaveReidUK]

Note all. Many users cannot see hyperlinks if they are using Firefox, Edge or Google as their browser. If you put the hyperlink inside a quote, it appears. It's a feature of the website that has been reported but not fixed.

YouTube videos are best linked using the tags that PPRuNe provides for that purpose:

_38SWIIKITE

[ORAC]

https://www.twz.com/air/first-known-chinese-wz-7-high-altitude-drone-flight-over-sea-of-japan

China’s WZ-7 High-Altitude Drone Makes First Known Flight Over Sea Of Japan

The WZ-7 joined-wing drone very possibly flew through Russian or North Korean airspace to get to the Sea of Japan and back.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/ukrreview/status/1777283094212415845?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The Prime Minister of Japan announced a "turning point" against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine.

He said that the events on the international arena are pushing the world and Tokyo to decisive and unexpected actions. In particular, Japan decided to change its defense position.

"As we witness Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, as well as the situation in East Asia, we are facing a historic turning point," PM said.

[havoc]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/10/politics/exclusive-on-board-b-52-bomber-mission/index.html

good video with reporter on board 33hr flight

[West Coast]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/10/politics/exclusive-on-board-b-52-bomber-mission/index.html

good video with reporter on board 33hr flight

The reporter missed out on calling it the “dreaded 7 engine approach”.

[DogTailRed2]

The Prime Minister of Japan announced a "turning point" against the backdrop of Russia's war against Ukraine.

He said that the events on the international arena are pushing the world and Tokyo to decisive and unexpected actions. In particular, Japan decided to change its defense position.

"As we witness Russia's aggression against Ukraine, the ongoing situation in the Middle East, as well as the situation in East Asia, we are facing a historic turning point," PM said.
Historic turning point is a euphemism for approaching WW3.

[havoc]

https://www.newsweek.com/china-may-preparing-deploy-economic-nuclear-option-1894985

stockpiling resources and potential currency devaluation, another factor in a global economy as tensions rise.

[Lonewolf_50]

Economic warfare, perhaps. It's one tool in the kit. (currency devaluation).

[golder]

Chinese warplane fires flares in front of Australian helicopter | 9 News Australia (youtube.com)
Peter Dutton and Anthony Albanese on Australia and China tensions | 9 News Australia (youtube.com)
It has been revealed that over the weekend there was an incident involving an Australian Navy Seahawk Helicopter and a Chinese Air Force Plane. The Chinese plane dropped flares, which the helicopter had to take “evasive action” to avoid.

[DogTailRed2]

Only a matter of time before either the Chinese or the Russians do something stupid and cause an escalation. Missile fired at an RAF AWACS. Russian fighter hits US drone etc. It does highlight the lack of discipline on China and Russia's part.

[Gnadenburg]

Marles knows full well the PLA pilot was carrying out orders so the act wasn’t “unprofessional” - orders and the mission were well executed and typical of CCP grey zone warfare.

[DogTailRed2]

Marles knows full well the PLA pilot was carrying out orders so the act wasn’t “unprofessional” - orders and the mission were well executed and typical of CCP grey zone warfare.
Whether ordered or not endangering an aircraft from another nation is not only poor airmanship but unprofessional in my opinion.

[Barksdale Boy]

Whether ordered or not endangering an aircraft from another nation is not only poor airmanship but unprofessional in my opinion.
I think that's an inaccurate remark.

[ORAC]

China has always played it rough - remember the EP-3 with the midair…

https://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/3748-u-s-navy-ep-3-forced-down-chinese.html

[Captain Dart]

They shot down a Cathay Pacific DC-4 airliner back in 1954, off Hainan.

Nice people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_Cathay_Pacific_Douglas_DC-4_shootdown

[Asturias56]

A number of countries have shot down airliners of course - it's not just the Chinese & the Russians :(

[ORAC]

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/chinas-floating-nuke-plants-up-south-china-sea-ante/

US alarmed by China plan to deploy some 20 floating nuclear reactors to its increasingly militarized features in contested sea.

China’s controversial plans to deploy floating nuclear reactors in the South China Sea could recalibrate the region’s power dynamics while sparking dangerous new tensions with the United States and its regional partners and allies

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1175/image_b2525e6747488e9b70a781d3901b73f36b46f17f.png

[Asturias56]

"US alarmed by China plan to deploy some 20 floating nuclear reactors to its increasingly militarized features in contested sea."

"The Nimitz class is a class (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_class) of ten nuclear-powered (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_marine_propulsion) aircraft carriers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_carriers) in service with (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_United_States_Navy_carrier_air_operations) the United States Navy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Navy)."

:cool:

[Not_a_boffin]

"US alarmed by China plan to deploy some 20 floating nuclear reactors to its increasingly militarized features in contested sea."

"The Nimitz class is a class (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ship_class) of ten nuclear-powered (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_marine_propulsion) aircraft carriers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_carriers) in service with (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Modern_United_States_Navy_carrier_air_operations) the United States Navy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Navy)."

:cool:
One suspects you're missing point.

[Asturias56]

well that would depend on your point of view I'd guess.

To most people a Nuclear reactor is a nuclear reactor whatever vessel you put it in.

[Not_a_boffin]

One suspects that the concern relates to possible placing of "civilian" nuclear reactors on military facilities in disputed waters, which also limits the freedom of action to counter them from an environmental PoV,. Something which won't be a consideration for the PLAN attacking a warship.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1788927483536159162?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
Chinese Incursion Near #Taiwan's Kinmen Islands

Around a dozen Chinese coast guard ships and other vessels entered waters near Taiwan’s outlying Kinmen Islands, with some breaching territorial waters.

A very serious escalation. Via TaiwanPlus News.

​​​​​​​https://twitter.com/IndoPac_Info/status/1788927483536159162/video/1​​​​​​​

[Lonewolf_50]

well that would depend on your point of view I'd guess.

To most people a Nuclear reactor is a nuclear reactor whatever vessel you put it in.
It's dumbassity like that which leads to global warning because people protested against nukes and let coal and (much else) provide us with electricity.

[Asturias56]

I agree - N power is very good for baseload operations

[rattman]

Reports coming out that Japan is offering to do a joint development of the FFM (enhanced / follow on mogami) with australia as part of its teir 2 combatant program. Its certainly a better option than the actual mogami, as I think the mogami is a complete non starter design for australia

This new variant could be what Tokyo offers Canberra for joint development, not just because of its enhanced capabilities but also because the successive production timelines could trigger economies of scale and lower costs.

https://archive.is/0agrm#selection-1509.0-1509.224


https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/2000x1342/gnsubz9akaegnts_da8db9df37130a593e943c7494a87822bfbb47ba.jpg

[ORAC]

https://x.com/isabellaan67/status/1789256347634094140?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China is clearly on to building artificial islands at the Escoda Shoal just 75 nautical miles from the coast of Palawan in the Philippines EEZ. It has been observed that crushed corals were dumped and it is highly likely that the maritime features were altered.

The dumping of dead and crushed corals on the sandbars of Escoda Shoal was similar to the "island-building activities" done in Sandy Cay in the Kalayaan Island Group (Spratly Islands) in September 2023.

Escoda Shoal is the point where resupply boats of AFP meet their escort vessels from the PCG to bring supplies for troops onboard BRP Sierra Madre. PH's access to BRP Sierra Madre could be lost if China succeeds in building the artificial island.


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x451/image_385d9f80380f4195979d7ad25b4de25b2ee4f4f5.png

https://www.gmanetwork.com/news/topstories/nation/906439/pcg-dumping-of-crushed-corals-may-be-preps-for-china-island-building-in-escoda-shoal/story/

PCG: Dumping of crushed corals in Escoda Shoal may be preps for China island-building

[nomorecatering]

Let them build.............and waste their money. Ot will only take one big typhoon to make the island disapear.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/gordianknotray/status/1789793883641258310?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China is sending a huge force to blockade Scarborough Shoal ahead of the Atin Ito civilian convoy setting sail from the 🇵🇭#Philippines Tuesday. By this time tomorrow at least 4 coast guard & 26 large maritime militia ships on blockade (not counting "dark" vessels).

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x846/image_2c426bdfc26ad55c76cd6fe5c799e30fb7bedffd.png

https://maharlika.tv/no-retreat-no-surrender-atin-ito-civilian-mission-in-scarborough-shoal-to-push-through-despite-chinas-huge-blockade/

​​​​​​​‘NO RETREAT, NO SURRENDER’ ‘ATIN ITO’ CIVILIAN MISSION IN SCARBOROUGH SHOAL TO PUSH THROUGH DESPITE CHINA’S HUGE BLOCKADE

[unmanned_droid]

Placing a nuclear reactor at each of the 'islands' is, I would think, more about discouraging attacks than anything else.

[ORAC]

https://www.twz.com/sea/chinas-mysterious-stealthy-warship-has-headed-out-to-sea

China’s Mysterious Stealthy Warship Has Headed Out To Sea

What exactly China’s plans are for the ship remains unclear, but it built it and got it out to sea extremely quickly.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1440x810/china_mystery_stealth_vessel_jpeg_7a085d4ac3e6fc7aaf057e5342 35ead0c4514aca.jpg

[Lonewolf_50]

https://www.twz.com/sea/chinas-mysterious-stealthy-warship-has-headed-out-to-sea

China’s Mysterious Stealthy Warship Has Headed Out To Sea

What exactly China’s plans are for the ship remains unclear, but it built it and got it out to sea extremely quickly.

Probably costs less than the Zumwalt class DDG. :p

[DogTailRed2]

According to a US official on LBC radio today the way to hurt China is to place more sanctions, including oil sanctions on Russia. A lot of money is flowing from Russia to China. Not to mention British Petroleum still making huge amounts of money out of Russian investments and assets. War is a very dirty business indeed.

[ORAC]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/india/work-on-third-aircraft-carrier-to-start-soon-more-to-follow-says-rajnath-621319

Work on third aircraft carrier to start soon, more to follow, says Rajnath Singh

India will soon start making its third aircraft carrier, said Defence Minister Rajnath Singh while talking to The Tribune. He was referring to the pending proposal of the Navy to make another indigenous carrier same in size as INS Vikrant, which weighed 45,000 tonne and was commissioned in September 2022.

India has one more carrier — INS Vikramaditya — sourced from Russia in 2013. “We will not stop at that (three carriers). We will make five, six more,” said Rajnath.

These are first indications of long-term plans for having sea-going carriers that can launch and recover fighter jets from the deck while sailing.

Till now, India has been speaking about having three carriers. The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence in January last year suggested the need for having a third sea-going aircraft carrier. It had said, “The reach and flexibility of a carrier is far superior to military airfields in far-flung island territories.”

What Rajnath said is setting is a fresh target for India and it matches China’s plan to have aircraft carriers.

Three years ago, a US Department of Defence report, ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2021’, warned, “China continues to build a multi-carrier force. Plans are for six carriers by 2030.”….

[Asturias56]

“China continues to build a multi-carrier force. Plans are for six carriers by 2030.”….

So they have 3 now - Liaoning, Shandong, and Fujian. The latest one was laid down in 2015/16, launched in 2022 and entered service this month. There are reports that a 4th Carrier is under construction but no firm dates. If we assume #4 was laid down immediately after the Fujian launch she might be in service by 2030. I struggle to see how they will add two more ships in that timeframe TBH - especially if they decide to change the design and go N-powered.

[ORAC]

Depends if you think they’ll all be for manned aircraft. China reportedly has had a 4th, drone, carrier since 2022 (predating the Turkish carrier which is why its being claimed as the first).

Who knows what else they have on the stocks elsewhere.

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2024/05/china-builds-worlds-first-dedicated-drone-carrier/

China Builds World’s First Dedicated Drone Carrier

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1080/china_drone_carrier_may2024_e33be9eed6de0e0cc08ac4de77235210 f9bf0885.jpg

[Asturias56]

"Who knows what else they have on the stocks elsewhere."

Well this thread is full of pictures from commercial satellites showing Chinese bases being built and extended, ships under construction etc etc. I'd have thought that if a large carrier was under construction it would be spotted long before it was launched or floated out.

But your point about other vessels that are capable of carrying drones/helicopters is a good one - IIRC they have 3 LHD's and more building