The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

[tdracer]

No mention of natural resources in that list. Where does the stuff that those things are made from come from? If you need to go to China for the raw materials, you are not really much further forward are you?
China produces a lot of that stuff because - with their total disregard of the environment impacts - they can produce it much cheaper than other areas.
If the demand is there and China isn't filling it, those other areas become more viable (at a higher dollar cost - but a lower environmental cost).
Granted, the lead times will be rather long initially, but the production will happen.

[Asturias56]

"No mention of natural resources in that list."

Crude, petroleum, Natural gas, copper...??????

[Ninthace]

China produces a lot of that stuff because - with their total disregard of the environment impacts - they can produce it much cheaper than other areas.
If the demand is there and China isn't filling it, those other areas become more viable (at a higher dollar cost - but a lower environmental cost).
Granted, the lead times will be rather long initially, but the production will happen.
So while we may be able to source all those products elsewhere, the price of the raw materials and labour will be so high we will not be able to afford them?

[rattman]

So while we may be able to source all those products elsewhere, the price of the raw materials and labour will be so high we will not be able to afford them?
china is not a cheap labor country anymore. Many chinese and western countries are moving, india and vietnam are the big 2. but other countries are getting a good numbers like thailand and indonesia.

[Ninthace]

china is not a cheap labor country anymore. Many chinese and western countries are moving, india and vietnam are the big 2. but other countries are getting a good numbers like thailand and indonesia.
If true, then all we need do is sit back and wait for economic pressure to reduce the West's reliance on Chinese imports.

[rattman]

If true, then all we need do is sit back and wait for economic pressure to reduce the West's reliance on Chinese imports.

It is true, apple is currently leaving china, mostly to india but vietnam and the US as well. One of the suppliers for the company I work has warned us supply disruptions as they are in the process of moving to vietnam. Another has completed the move already

[ORAC]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-66654645

China map: India lodges 'strong protest' over territory claims

India says it has lodged a "strong protest" with China over a new map that lays claim to its territory.

Indian media have reported that the map shows the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh and the disputed Aksai Chin plateau as China's territory.

It was released by China's ministry of natural resources on Monday (https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202308/28/WS64ec91c2a31035260b81ea5b.html).

"We reject these claims as they have no basis," India's foreign ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi said. He added that such steps by China "only complicate the resolution of the boundary question".

Beijing has not officially responded yet.

India's Foreign Minister S Jaishankar also called China's claim (https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/making-absurd-claims-does-not-make-others-territory-yours-s-jaishankar-on-china-4339360#pfrom=home-ndtv_topscroll) "absurd".

"China has even in the past put out maps which claim the territories which are not China's, which belong to other countries. This is an old habit of theirs," he told TV channel NDTV on Tuesday.

India's protest comes days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke on the sidelines (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-66613040) of the Brics summit in South Africa.

An Indian official said afterwards that the two countries had agreed to "intensify efforts at expeditious disengagement and de-escalation" along the disputed border……

[Asturias56]

Oh God - back to the border issue again

One of the problems is that India will never contemplate changing or even discussing the old British Imperial claims - to which the Chinese never agreed

PS it also shows Taiwan as part of China of course and the Nine Dash Line further south - nothing new

[DogTailRed2]

Everything is fine because James Cleverly is in China to kiss, well do something. Britain is so broken.

[Asturias56]

you can't ignore 25% of the worlds population - we need their money TBH

[havoc]

Blind, See, Kill: U.S. Pacific Commander's Grand Networking Plan To Take On China (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/blind-see-kill-u-s-pacific-commander-s-grand-networking-plan-to-take-on-china/ar-AA1fXDsV?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=903750db84b74ba5a8a320f3d1752657&ei=172)

[havoc]

The US should reflag islands in the South China Sea (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-should-reflag-islands-in-the-south-china-sea/ar-AA1fZOqG?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=903750db84b74ba5a8a320f3d1752657&ei=217)

[Ninthace]

The US should reflag islands in the South China Sea (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-should-reflag-islands-in-the-south-china-sea/ar-AA1fZOqG?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=903750db84b74ba5a8a320f3d1752657&ei=217)
So how does annexing somebody else's territory in the name of the US make one better than the Chinese?

[Spunky Monkey]

Everything is fine because James Cleverly is in China to kiss, well do something. Britain is so broken.

Actually there was an interesting take on this today from the Ex Aussie PM (I think it was) Malcolm Turnbull.
Who said that until recently China had pursued the line of aggressive negotiation and stamping on countries that didn't align with their view of trade and the world.
Australia copped a great deal of that flack.
Wolf Warrior diplomacy.

However it hasn't worked out as they expected when countries like Australia and Vietnam told them to sling their hook.

They have since started a period of a more agreeable diplomacy, especially as their economy is on the brink and Russia has been a good barometer of the capabilities of their military kit.

So James Cleverly has seen an opportunity in the thawing of relations to hopefully make some beneficial changes.
It would appear the US has done the same.

So its not all as we are led to believe, there is a bigger picture going on.

[judyjudy]

So how does annexing somebody else's territory in the name of the US make one better than the Chinese?

i believe that the article states that the US would lease the islands with the permission of the owning state, not annex them

[Asturias56]

Ahhh - so that's OK then................

why would you take on that responsibility? every island you took over would be an indefensible hostage to the future - if the Chinese took over a tiny reef would you retaliate? Would the US Public/Congress want a war with China over a tiny leased reef that wasn't even part of the USA???

:ugh:

[ORAC]

Would the US Public/Congress want a war with China over a tiny leased reef that wasn't even part of the USA???
Depends what and how much they put there.

Diego Garcia as an example….

[Ninthace]

i believe that the article states that the US would lease the islands with the permission of the owning state, not annex them
A subtlety that would be overlooked by the Pentagon and the Chinese.

[Asturias56]

Depends what and how much they put there.

Diego Garcia as an example….
Indeed - but that's a well established base - the suggestion is to reflag various atolls in the S China Sea - once you've put up a flag do you then invest $$$$$ to make them defendable or is it just a flag?

[jolihokistix]

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/31/malaysia-rejects-new-china-map-claiming-entire-south-china-sea

When China proposes loudly that both sides 'recognize the law', they are careful not to say ‘International Law’.

[jolihokistix]

Latest version for the G20 summit is a nine ten-dash line. (With all 'their' islands marked lilac.)


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1170x1288/img_1070_1762f39f64ca49c3e7724e092e8b438b6f76b4a8.jpeg

[Lonewolf_50]

One can see why their neighbors object to such line drawings (https://www.newsweek.com/china-border-map-neighbors-reaction-territorial-claims-1823648).

[Asturias56]

yes - you really have to try hard to upset EVERYONE

[Ninthace]

yes - you really have to try hard to upset EVERYONE
I imagine the poor soul responsible for drawing the map was caught between a rock and a hard place and took the line of least resistance from their point of view. Draw the map according to government policy and let his bosses take the flak or draw the current truth and end up spending the rest of their career in the Chinese equivalent of the archives at Auchtermuchty.

[Asturias56]

Actually I think most Chinese would draw the map like that - that's the problem - they've been told one version of events

[jolihokistix]

It's really so cheeky that Xi himself probably feels ashamed to attend the G20 summit in person.

Someone was playing with my computer last night and redrew the dotted line as it should be on that map above.
Watch this space...

[ORAC]

Japan’s new AEGIS BMD cruisers to weigh 12,000T, carry a 128 VLS cell… and the first to be in service by 2027/2028…

https://x.com/alexluck9/status/1697441150750384304?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A
​​​​​​​

[fdr]

One can see why their neighbors object to such line drawings (https://www.newsweek.com/china-border-map-neighbors-reaction-territorial-claims-1823648).

and many of those neighbours are feeding Chinas masses , seems a little short sighted to mess with your own rice bowl. At least the lines are on the inside of the SCS, at least for now... the 20 lilac line will extend out west of India and south of Indonesia as that would annoy their neighbours more. Bozo's..

Diego, the BIOT, excellent hamburgers, fries and shakes, as in, memorable. Best $100 burger in the business. Still a good place to RON, the accomodation is limited but reasonable, but the food is excellent.

[Lonewolf_50]

Newsweek has a tidbit: Russia Breaks Silence Over China Map Claiming Its Territory
The Russian Foreign Ministry has rejected China's apparent claim of ownership over a disputed island that has been a source of tension between Moscow and Beijing for decades.

[jolihokistix]

Time for everyone to come out and reject China's hegemonic bit claims.

[Ninthace]

Time for everyone to come out and reject China's hegemonic bit claims.
Who are we missing?

[jolihokistix]

Japan has said nothing about the Senkaku Islands north of Taiwan.

[Lonewolf_50]

I have a devious idea.
China recently warned that the U.S. has crossed a red line with its assistance and support of Taiwan, saying that a "storm of lethal consequences" is brewing. The Global Times, a state-run communist newspaper in China, published an op-ed on Thursday criticizing the recent $80 million military financing program the U.S. announced for Taiwan and said: "With the increasing number and intensity of its intervention methods, the brewing and imminent storm of lethal consequences for Taiwan cannot be ignored."According to AP, the FMF is usually used for sovereign states, and China has continued to claim Taiwan as its own territory, while the U.S. disagrees and says Taiwan is an independent nation. If China wants to make a point, they ought to offer $80 Million (US) to the Texas National Guard for security assistance in defending their border.
I doubt they will (and I suspect that the current governor would decline) but that would be a way to make their point.
And it would be rather funny.

[West Coast]

https://unherd.com/2023/08/has-xi-jinping-bankrupted-china/?fbclid=IwAR36NTHTHKznhyhTuk-70BDAd5-z4NHux7k4wdfzGpAJdpUxS9OmM6Ur72g

An opinion that Chinese spending (in part) on infrastructure will drive Xi to the poor house.

[Asturias56]

reading this weeks Economist its much more likely to be issues with property and the shadow banking sector - sounds like 2008 in the West

[West Coast]

reading this weeks Economist its much more likely to be issues with property and the shadow banking sector - sounds like 2008 in the West

Perhaps, but not enough to push them over the edge.

[Asturias56]

I doubt they 'll go over the edge - we (especially on here) always overestimate the chances of repressive regimes disintegrating.

More likely is a serious loss of belief in the Party, people going over to the old Russian work ethic ("They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work") with the Govt having to resort to western style handouts to shore up bits of the financial sector there. Generally speaking a slow down rather than a collapse.

[T28B]

West Coast: thank you for the link. That was worth a read.
It was Xi alone, in an expressly personal decision in the name of social equality, who abruptly shut down China’s vast private tutoring industry in July 2021, depriving new university graduates of desirable starter jobs; the seven largest teaching companies alone had to fire 250,000 graduates. Enterprising graduates tried to teach privately, but in October 2021 online tutoring was halted, while those who gathered a few pupils for lessons in parks of cafes were told to stop or face arrest when spotted by police. There must be something behind this. Afraid of "unauthorized teachings?"
Not even the collapse of Putin’s quick-victory plan might dissuade Xi, who will rely on treason within Taiwan’s astonishingly lackadaisical armed forces to win quickly.
Last year, Taiwan reacted to sharply risen tensions by increasing military service to a measly one year from an absurd four months — and then delayed the start to 2024… That last is a bit of a shock.
Perhaps they perceive the threat differently than those outside of their homeland do.
Asturias56
Generally speaking a slow down rather than a collapse. While I hope you are right, the linked article does indicate that if they fall on hard times, the rest of us will feel it.

[Asturias56]

well the window before they have to provide for a very large population of retirees closes all the time. By 2035 or so they'll be in the same boat as the UK - not enough workers

[Lonewolf_50]

That map will doubtless be a discussion at the ASEAN conference.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/05/asean-summit-harris-indonesia-myanmar-coup-south-china-sea/

They are navigating a fine line between Chinese economic demands and US security demands.
While I am sure they'd mostly like to remain "unaligned" that luxury may not be an option.

[Asturias56]

Many of them have managed it for 70 years - they REALLY don't want to have to fight anyone - it would ruin their growing economies - but then they don't like the Chinese in general. The real question is how likely is China to kick off a serious hot war . My guess is relatively unlikely - they don't want to risk all the progress they've made unless it's something visceral like Taiwan.

[golder]

Many of them have managed it for 70 years - they REALLY don't want to have to fight anyone - it would ruin their growing economies - but then they don't like the Chinese in general. The real question is how likely is China to kick off a serious hot war . My guess is relatively unlikely - they don't want to risk all the progress they've made unless it's something visceral like Taiwan.
That is in contrast to the massive military build up, in the very recent years.
https://news.usni.org/2023/01/16/china-undergoing-build-up-in-every-warfare-area-says-oni-commander

[Asturias56]

IIRC the Chinese are still well behind the USA in just about every category of equipment especially in capabilities

The Chinese have not fought a "hot" war since 1962 (or 1979 if you include the Vietnam incursion) - the USA has hardly stopped fighting somebody, somewhere

[fdr]

reading this weeks Economist its much more likely to be issues with property and the shadow banking sector - sounds like 2008 in the West

1990 Japan.

[ORAC]

The tip of an iceberg - ask Australia…

https://x.com/shippersunbound/status/1700582889019101615?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


British parliamentary researcher linked to senior Tory MPs suspected of spying for Beijing

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/british-national-arrested-suspicion-china-spy-parliamentary-researcher-xrtbrw86m

Commons ‘Chinese spy’ arrested

A British parliamentary researcher has been arrested on suspicion of spying for China in what is alleged to be one of the most damaging breaches of security involving a hostile state at Westminster.

The male suspect, who is in his late twenties, is understood to be linked to a number of senior Tory MPs, including several who are privy to classified or highly sensitive information. They include Tom Tugendhat, the security minister, and Alicia Kearns, the chairwoman of the Commons foreign affairs committee.

A senior Whitehall source claimed: “This is a major escalation by China. We have never seen anything like this before.”

Counterterrorism police arrested the researcher and another man in his thirties on suspicion of espionage-related offences in March.

The researcher is a Briton who held a parliamentary pass and has worked with MPs on international policy, including relations with Beijing, for several years.

He previously spent time living and working in China, where security officials fear he may have been recruited as a sleeper agent and sent back to Britain with the intention of infiltrating political networks critical of the Beijing regime.

The researcher was arrested in Edinburgh and his London flat is thought to have been searched by police. The second suspect was arrested in Oxfordshire.

Scotland Yard said in a statement: “Officers from the Metropolitan Police arrested two men on March 13 on suspicion of offences under section one of the Official Secrets Act 1911.

“A man in his thirties was arrested at an address in Oxfordshire and a man in his twenties was arrested at an address in Edinburgh. Searches were also carried out at both the residential properties, as well as at a third address in east London. Both men were taken to a south London police station and were released on police bail until a date in early October.”….

The alleged infiltration of parliament by a British citizen has prompted widespread alarm at Westminster and follows warnings by Ken McCallum (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mi5-chief-ken-mccallum-warns-students-of-threat-from-hostile-states-s8px53dm6), the head of MI5, that the Chinese Communist Party poses “the most game-changing strategic challenge” to the UK.….

Tugendhat is said to have only had limited contact with the arrested researcher, who was hired by someone else, and severed contact with him when he began running for the Conservative Party leadership in July last year. He therefore had no dealings with the suspect as security minister.

Luke de Pulford, of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China (IPAC), said: “It’s no surprise that he’d go after Tom. He’s been out front on China for years. In IPAC we have long suspected that something was badly wrong because there were consistent efforts from a hostile researcher to smear IPAC MPs and label them as extreme on China policy. Now it all makes sense.”

A Whitehall source added: “I’m pretty sure he [the researcher] turned some backbenchers from China hawks into being apathetic about Beijing. He was regularly complaining about a lack of nuance among China-sceptic MPs and seemed to have a particular issue with Iain Duncan Smith.”

Paddy McGuinness, the government’s former deputy national security adviser, described China’s alleged actions as both “reckless” and a “serious escalation” of espionage activities. He said: “The mask has truly slipped. This isn’t about China objecting to interference in their internal affairs as they so often claim. Rather they are messing in ours, with a casual disregard for our democracy and our sovereignty.”…….

[Asturias56]

"Counterterrorism police arrested the researcher and another man in his thirties on suspicion of espionage-related offences in March."

Amazed its stayed out of the news so long - of course they were bailed so it doesn't sound as if it was Guy Fawkes they found

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chris-cash-china-spy-suspect-arrest-name-kgmgrzvl8

China spy suspect is parliamentary aide Chris Cash

A Tory parliamentary researcher arrested on suspicion of spying for China was the director of an influential policy group on Beijing co-founded by the security minister. Chris Cash, 28, was closely linked with Tom Tugendhat and was employed as a researcher by Alicia Kearns, chairwoman of the Commons foreign affairs committee.

The suspect is the son of a GP and grew up in a wealthy suburb of Edinburgh. He went to the fee-paying George Watson’s College, where he was a head of house, and later studied history at the University of St Andrews… before spending two years teaching English literature at an international school in Hangzhou, near Shanghai, on a scheme run by the British Council.

He returned to the UK to study for an MSc in China and globalisation at King’s College London before securing employment at Westminster in 2021. He was hired as a researcher for the China Research Group… More recently he was hired as a researcher for Kearns, working inside parliament…..

Luke de Pulford, of the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China, said Cash was a “very serious operator” and a “skilled networker who became very embedded in the Westminster China scene”.…

Cash was also active on Westminster’s social scene. He was photographed at a party at the US embassy in London last year and organised bi-monthly drinks at a pub near parliament for a “Whitehall crowd of quite young people interested in China”. The regular event, known as Westminster China Policy drinks, was popular with young civil servants, political aides, journalists and think tank staffers.

“They used to do a drinks thing, [he] would always be there, there were some young people who worked for the Foreign Office there, Hongkongers . . . it was a lot of young people interested in China,” one of those who attended said. Another guest, who had been invited by Cash, said those attending included young Tory researchers, junior civil servants and American think tank staff…..

China has labelled the arrest a”political farce” and “malicious slander”.

“The claim that China is suspected of ‘stealing British intelligence’ is completely fabricated and nothing but malicious slander,” the Chinese embassy in London said in a statement published late on Sunday.

“We firmly oppose it and urge relevant parties in the UK to stop their anti-China political manipulation and stop putting on such self-staged political farce.”….

[hunterboy]

One of many leaks in the HoP I suspect. Are all “researchers” and MP’s vetted before taking their posts? Or are they just assumed to be good eggs as they went to the right school/university and are a member of the party?

[artee]

One of many leaks in the HoP I suspect. Are all “researchers” and MP’s vetted before taking their posts? Or are they just assumed to be good eggs as they went to the right school/university and are a member of the party?
Didn't we learn how effective the "Good egg" test is with Kim Philby et al? :ugh:

[Asturias56]

Hmm - I suspect it may be a hard charge to prove - whats the difference bewteen "research", PR and spying???

[jolihokistix]

Shades of ‘An Impeccable Spy’, by Owen Matthews.
Highly recommended, if you haven’t already…

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/854x1280/img_0776_2f756de67b42e30bbc856c180c2e94486cf43027.jpeg

[fdr]

well the window before they have to provide for a very large population of retirees closes all the time. By 2035 or so they'll be in the same boat as the UK - not enough workers

They can chat to Putin, he has a cure related to windows!

[ORAC]

One of those cases that may never come to trial…

Hmm - I suspect it may be a hard charge to prove - whats the difference bewteen "research", PR and spying???



“The Telegraph understands that security services suspect a number of Chinese agents to be working in Westminster, and are planning to use the National Security Act (https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/07/11/china-blocked-takeovers-under-new-national-security-act/), passed this summer, to detain them.

The Act introduced an offence of “foreign interference”, making it illegal for spies to meddle in elections or disrupt the workings of parliamentary democracy in the UK. Working covertly for a foreign hostile power will now become a criminal offence.

The two men were arrested on suspicion of offences under the old Official Secrets Act, which dates back to 1911 and is much harder to prove, because their alleged offences occurred before the national security act came into force……

MI5 had long complained to ministers that it previously did not have the powers to go after agents working for hostile states. A senior official – known only as Director K (https://12ft.io/proxy?ref=&q=https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/12/03/exclusive-meet-director-k-mi5-spy-responsible-keeping-britain/) – complained to the Telegraph two years ago that the 1911 act was only suitable “if we catch somebody with a hand-drawn map intending to send it to an enemy”…..

[arf23]

I'm surprised they got bail, maybe they've had an Apple Airtag hidden away inside and the intent is to see which power spirits them "home", embarrassing the Government again after he who skipped Wandsworth?

[ORAC]

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x1088/image_1f6a9f36f66e1380b7bfa133a701ab1e8da11db7.png

[Asturias56]

I'm surprised they got bail, maybe they've had an Apple Airtag hidden away inside and the intent is to see which power spirits them "home", embarrassing the Government again after he who skipped Wandsworth?

Suggests the offences are at the lower end of the scale and it would be hard to get a Judge to bang someone up for months

For what it's worth one of the accused has gone public and denies everything - this could be very messy - quite a few people on on record as supporting China over the last few years in the Commons

[Lonewolf_50]

Exercise / presence / demonstration of capability.
China sends 68 warplanes and 10 warships to surround Taiwan - World News - News - Daily Express US (the-express.com) (https://www.the-express.com/news/world-news/111749/china-warplanes-navy-ships-surround-taiwan-invasion-threat)

China copies a method from the Cold War playbook.

[ORAC]

https://www.skynews.com.au/world-news/china/ccp-sanctioned-video-threatens-china-will-nuke-japan-in-a-fullscale-war/news-story/dd3ce2fdab6e83fa77025eb5c3d23803

CCP sanctioned video threatens China will nuke Japan in a 'full-scale war'

A new video circulated among Chinese Communist Party channels has warned China will destroy Japan with nuclear weapons in a "full-scale war" if Tokyo interferes militarily in Taiwan.

The new video singles out Japan threatening it will be the “exception” to China’s stated policy to not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear powers.

“We will use nuclear bombs first. We will use nuclear bombs continuously. We will do this until Japan declares unconditional surrender for the second time,” the video said.

“When we liberate Taiwan, if Japan dares to intervene by force – even if it only deploys one soldier, one plane or one ship – we will not only return fire but also wage full-scale war against Japan itself.”

https://x.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1414971285160005634?s=20


CCP (https://twitter.com/hashtag/CCP?src=hashtag_click) Vows to Nuke Japan (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Japan?src=hashtag_click) if Japan defends Taiwan (https://twitter.com/hashtag/Taiwan?src=hashtag_click). As Japan is the only country that has been nuked, so nuking Japan "will get twice the result with half the effort."

[jolihokistix]

Their rhetoric is starting to sound more like that of North Korea, who threatened many times in the past to turn Tokyo into a sea of flames. Looking silly.

Still, if it makes you feel powerful...

[fdr]

Sounds like someone is compensating for their home audience.

[ORAC]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/to-counter-china-in-indian-ocean-region-india-plans-175-warship-navy-by-2035/articleshow/103739450.cms

To counter China in Indian Ocean region, India plans 175-warship Navy by 2035

[Asturias56]

The problem with India is their sclerotic shipyards -almost every programme is years behind schedule

[ORAC]

Not to alarm you, but this guy isn’t an alarmist…..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Zeihan

So, on to why to be alarmed - and wonder what Xi might do to distract the public and get his name in their history books for a good rather than bad reason…


https://x.com/nicholadrummond/status/1704106761664225417?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Astonishing video predicting China's likely political, economic, and social collapse from the highly respected @PeterZeihan….

​​​​​​​

[Asturias56]

I really doubt it will collapse - these think tanks guys often extrapolate too far. The only large scale power that disintegrated, outside of wartime, was the Soviet Union - but 30 years later it still looks a lot like the old version to me TBH.

[ORAC]

Really?

https://tinyurl.com/4dcnuv3k

Putin’s Russia is a minnow compared to the Cold War Soviet Bloc

[Asturias56]

yeah sure - its not what it was - but you could hardly describe it as "political, economic, and social collapse "

The capital is still in Moscow, the train still runs to Vladivostok - they've got more N weapons than the USA, they have a space programme and they used to own half of London - not too shabby TBH

Almost everyone has a far better standard of living as well -

Militarily - yes not as powerful but that's not everything

[Andrewgr2]

yeah sure - its not what it was - but you could hardly describe it as "political, economic, and social collapse "

The capital is still in Moscow, the train still runs to Vladivostok - they've got more N weapons than the USA, they have a space programme and they used to own half of London - not too shabby TBH

Almost everyone has a far better standard of living as well -

Militarily - yes not as powerful but that's not everything

Is it really true that almost everyone has a far better standard of living than in Soviet days? I get the impression life is still very primitive outside Moscow and St Petersburg.

[havoc]

US Air Force special operators' search for new runways is expanding from highways to beaches (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-air-force-special-operators-search-for-new-runways-is-expanding-from-highways-to-beaches/ar-AA1gXV8a?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9121ccd32513454a972ce0dd0c2d127f&ei=152)

[unmanned_droid]

Problem is, china can back the rhetoric if it wants.

[unmanned_droid]

US Air Force special operators' search for new runways is expanding from highways to beaches (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-air-force-special-operators-search-for-new-runways-is-expanding-from-highways-to-beaches/ar-AA1gXV8a?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531&cvid=9121ccd32513454a972ce0dd0c2d127f&ei=152)
You wonder if people are scouting out ww2 coral airfields.

The US-2 may become a very important aircraft, and some may look at the YC-14 and think...can we get an MRAP in that?

[Asturias56]

"Is it really true that almost everyone has a far better standard of living than in Soviet days? I get the impression life is still very primitive outside Moscow and St Petersburg."

Its certainly a lot less comfortable than in the big cities but there's no doubt that the average standard of living is higher - and there are a lot more consumer durables etc

You just have ot look at the large number of Russian tourists these days

[Less Hair]

Facing all those possible new pacific conflict scenarios, wouldn't it be wise to expand the USMC now? More aircraft, helicopters, marine assault capabilities? And then better repair all those lost island bases in the pacific in time.

[Lonewolf_50]

Facing all those possible new pacific conflict scenarios, wouldn't it be wise to expand the USMC now? More aircraft, helicopters, marine assault capabilities? And then better repair all those lost island bases in the pacific in time. It would make sense, yes. But to do that means that one of the other services has to eat a loss in manpower and budget. (Probably).
A bun fight within the Pentagon and within Congress would need to happen first before that course of action were taken.
Of some interest in terms of what you'd expect to see in terms of manpower:
U.S. Military Personnel 1954-2014: The Numbers (historyinpieces.com) (https://historyinpieces.com/research/us-military-personnel-1954-2014)
I'd need to muddle around looking for more recent figures, but you can see how the comparative manpower stack ups trend.
As an aside, recruiting has been impacted by some demographic problems.
The pool of those eligible to join the military continues to shrink, with more young men and women than ever disqualified for obesity, drug use or criminal records. Last month, Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville testified before Congress that only 23% of Americans ages 17-24 are qualified to serve without a waiver to join, down from 29% in recent years. 2022 recruiting article.

2022 End Strength.
To pay for new capabilities and accommodate a flat budget top line, the Marine Corps cuts active-duty end strength on a path to about 172,000, the level before the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Ground forces gain long-range precision fires but give up three infantry battalions, tanks, and most counterinsurgency capabilities.
Most artillery convert from cannon to missile units. These changes are all underway. Final designs for logistics, reserve, and reconnaissance forces are still under development.
Marine aviation gets smaller, consistent with cuts in the ground forces.
Emerging concepts imply cuts to manned aircraft, particularly the F-35, but such plans are still under development. source is this analysis: U.S. Military Forces in FY 2022: Marine Corps (csis.org) (https://www.csis.org/analysis/us-military-forces-fy-2022-marine-corps)

[ORAC]

https://x.com/space_osint/status/1705641600838242540?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


The U.S. government (🇺🇸) is reportedly considering supplying Vietnam (🇻🇳) with F-16 jets.

The deal ''could come together within the next year'' but ''is still in its early stages.''

​​​​​​​Vietnam currently operates Su-22, Su-27 and Su-30 jets.

[Asturias56]

Probably figuring that spares and replacement supplies from Russia will be scarce for a while

[ORAC]

Jackal now heading east to Taiwan thanks to the UK…

Previous post: https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/652366-jackal-martlet.html#post11421508

https://www.defensenews.com/unmanned/2023/09/22/taiwan-moves-closer-to-acquiring-160-turkish-made-jackal-drones/

Taiwan moves closer to acquiring 160 Turkish-made Jackal drones

MERSIN, Turkey — Taiwanese company GEOSAT Aerospace and Technology has inked an agreement with British firm Flyby Technology that paves the way for the purchase, technology transfer and production of 160 Turkish-made Jackal drones.

The memorandum of understanding, signed during the Taipei Aerospace Defense Technology Exhibition this month, involves the transfer of technology to the Asia-Pacific region and other geographic areas, according to a GEOSAT news release.
“Based on this, we will further develop and produce a new generation product, 160 JACKAL drones,” the company’s statement said. “UK-based Flyby Technology has agreed to provide payload solutions, testing and production planning for the new 160 JACKALs product and other Flyby authorized products.”…..

[Lyneham Lad]

In]In The Times this afternoon. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-kim-jong-un-0s5cxq8pp)

Kim Jong-un warned of a “new Cold War”, and promised to rapidly expand his arsenal of nuclear missiles and warheads against the “Asian-version Nato”, in one of the starkest articulations so far of the military confrontation taking shape in East Asia.

The North Korean leader was speaking at a gathering of the country’s tame parliament, which on Wednesday revised the constitution to enshrine the country’s status as permanent nuclear state. His talk of a new Cold War comes days after he returned from a visit to Russia (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kim-jong-un-russia-ukraine-latest-news-putin-gvdcj6j2w), where he and Vladimir Putin promised one another military and technological aid.

“Now that the US, steeped in the Cold War mentality, has gone to extremes in its anti-DPRK military provocations, it is very important for the DPRK to accelerate the modernisation of nuclear weapons in order to hold the definite edge of strategic deterrence,” Kim told the Supreme People’s Assembly, using the North’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

He spoke of “the need to push ahead with the work for exponentially boosting the production of nuclear weapons and diversifying the nuclear strike means”, and said that “the DPRK’s nuclear force-building policy has been made permanent as the basic law of the state, which no one is allowed to flout”.

Kim’s reference to the Cold war spells out what has become pronounced in the past five years – the existence of two polarised camps in east Asia, divided politically and diplomatically, and now engaged in an increasingly tense military confrontation.


The US and South Korea, which used to avoid rising to North Korean provocations, now respond to them in kind, dispatching aircraft carriers, nuclear capable bombers and nuclear submarines to conduct exercises around the peninsula in deliberate and co-ordinated shows of force.

As Kim and Putin has moved closer, on the other side of the divide Japan and South Korea have overcome historical resentments to build up a three-way partnership with the US.

“The US … has maximised its nuclear war threats to our Republic by resuming the large-scale nuclear war joint drills with clear aggressive nature and putting the deployment of its strategic nuclear assets near the Korean peninsula on a permanent basis,” Kim said.

“The accelerated establishment of the triangular military alliance with Japan and the ‘Republic of Korea’ finally resulted in the emergence of the ‘Asian version Nato’, the root cause of war and aggression,” Kim told his audience in Pyongyang. “This is just the worst actual threat, not threatening rhetoric or an imaginary entity.”

According to state media, the change to Article 58 of Chapter 4 of the North Korean constitution sets out the principle that “the DPRK, a responsible nuclear weapons state, develops highly nuclear weapons to ensure the rights to existence and development of the country, deter war and defend peace and stability in the region and the rest of the world”.

Although it does not in itself change anything concrete, the amendment confirms North Korea’s self-proclaimed status as a full nuclear state and indicates how far the world is from disarming Kim.

Five years ago, he was meeting Donald Trump to discuss denuclearisation. A year ago, the last gathering of the Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA) passed a law abandoning the policy of no first-use of nuclear weapons, saying the North could launch a preemptive strike if the leadership was threatened. This week, the SPA declared the North to be on a par with other nuclear powers such as the US, China, Russia and Britain.

Shin Won-sik, the nominee to be South Korea’s next defence minister, promised to “firmly punish” the North for any future military provocations.

[Lonewolf_50]

In]In The Times this afternoon. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/north-korea-nuclear-weapons-kim-jong-un-0s5cxq8pp)
That's standard form, and in keeping with the Kim dynasty's rhetoric, aims, and political positions.
Put another way: nothing new under the sun.

[Biggus]

While I realise it's not aviation related, given the nature of this thread, I'm surprised there's been no mention of Taiwan unveiling it's first domestically produced submarine.

Or have I missed that post on here?

[Asturias56]

Kim would be mad to give up his nuclear weapons - he can read the newspapers and can see what happened to Gaddafi and the Ukraine

[Spunky Monkey]

Kim would be mad to give up his nuclear weapons - he can read the newspapers and can see what happened to Gaddafi and the Ukraine

Eh? Would you like to enlighten us why?

[jolihokistix]

They both gave up nuclear weapons and look what happened to them.

Besides, Kim’s father made his son swear an oath never to stray from the nuclear weapons path. This is for his father’s memory as much as anything.

[Asturias56]

But in the Kim family your own skin comes first of course

[Lonewolf_50]

We appear to be drifting off course from the South China Sea.
The Kim family gets its own thread. (There's one in Jet Blast that seems to have been resurrected of late).
North Korea is up there around the Sea of Japan, and the Yellow Sea.
Mea culpa is offered for contributing to the thread drift.

[Asturias56]

well the Chinese have extended their dashed line up north..................

[jolihokistix]

well the Chinese have extended their dashed line up north..................
Source? If so it must be to annoy Taiwan, of course, but especially Japan.

[Asturias56]

Source? If so it must be to annoy Taiwan, of course, but especially Japan.
https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x675/2023_china_new_standard_map_1x675_d97e4d13427ff2ac0d17b70ede 2a3438381e6e67.png

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/411x465/2023_china_stadndard_map_all_43670f63271e6915d974c7f61b6c506 3f74a72a3.jpg

[Asturias56]

The Economist take:-LATE LAST month the government in Beijing published a “standard map” of China and all its territorial claims. It did a strikingly efficient job of upsetting the neighbours, from India to Japan, but above all those around the South China Sea. Vietnam objected to the map’s inclusion of the Paracel Islands, which China seized from it in 1974. The Philippines protested over the Scarborough Shoal, from which China has barred it by force since 2012, even though it lies well within the Philippines’s 200-nautical-mile exclusive economic zone (EEZ). And the map’s inclusion of the Spratly Islands—a welter of islets, atolls and reefs spread out across a vast swathe of the South China Sea a very long way from China itself—angered those countries and Malaysia, too.

Yet that much was predictable. South-East Asians have long suffered from Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea. China’s notorious “nine-dash line” is both symbol and tool of its extravagant claims: a U-shaped tongue of passive cartographic aggression, it encompasses almost the entire sea. In 2016 an arbitral tribunal at The Hague, in a case brought by the Philippines, ruled among other things that the line had no basis in law. Yet the new standard map even includes an extra dash to the line, placed east of Taiwan. This new, tenth dash has bred the most consternation. Some sense that it opens a new front in China’s grandiose claims. Is that likely?

The concerns are overdone, writes Bill Hayton in Fulcrum, house journal of the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, a regional research outfit in Singapore. This is not the first time Chinese cartography has included a tenth dash. Besides, Mr Hayton explains, the nature of the U-shaped line, which dates back to the 1940s, has always been vague and subject much of the time to “happenstance and incompetence”. Back then, Chinese mappers were not really clear what lay inside the line, which was intended as merely a schematic outer marker of what might in future be claimed within it. In recent decades, vagueness has suited the Chinese Communist Party as it has asserted (though never officially) absurd “historic rights” over everything inside the line. Maximalist claims, in turn, help China bully neighbours over things like fisheries and hydrocarbons exploration. The basis of the new line, says Mr Hayton, is as nonsensical as was the original.

[Wokkafans]

Usual caveats:

https://twitter.com/MarkNicolDM/status/1709262609998905377?s=20

https://twitter.com/MarkNicolDM/status/1709262609998905377?s=20

[ORAC]

Reference the above.

Confirmation of the story of 31st August from US Chinese sources…

https://www.americaoutloud.news/breaking-the-secret-accident-of-ccps-093-417-nuclear-submarine-in-yellow-sea/

[rattman]

Calling BS on the lost sub. Unless it a polluted atmosphere like chlorine or flurine as an example. No way that 6 hours with no oxygen production would kill over half the crew between chemical oxygen generators and CO2 scrubbers. 6 hours would be total non event

[Lonewolf_50]

Calling BS on the lost sub. Unless it a polluted atmosphere like chlorine or flurine as an example. No way that 6 hours with no oxygen production would kill over half the crew between chemical oxygen generators and CO2 scrubbers. 6 hours would be total non event Give it 48 hours and see if the story has died or if there's a bit more meat on the bone. The 'sources' don't fill me with confidence.

[ORAC]

AW&ST:

https://aviationweek.com/defense-space/missile-defense-weapons/invade-taiwan-encounter-hellscape

Invade Taiwan? Encounter A ‘Hellscape’

A new operational concept within the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command proposes to use a horde of drones to turn the Taiwan Strait into a “hellscape” if China attempts to invade Taiwan.

To realize that vision, the Defense Department has created several new efforts to solve the industrial, bureaucratic and command-and-control issues posed by unleashing thousands of drones simultaneously into the air, water and land around the roughly 100-nm channel between mainland China and Taiwan.

The multiple projects, including the Pentagon’s recently announced Replicator and DARPA’s Rapid Experimental Missionized Autonomy (REMA) programs, seek to enhance and accelerate the programs of record already underway by each of the armed services to field tens of thousands of drones—including uncrewed air vehicles (UAV), uncrewed surface vessels (USV) and uncrewed ground vehicles—in the next several years…..

[Lonewolf_50]

ORAC, thanks for the article/summary.
As to the various spokesmen: Why is this being discussed in open sources?
Do they believe that this will act as a deterrent, big talk?

[jolihokistix]

Follow-up Mail article suggesting that all hands were lost, and that Chinese subs of this type may not have back-up CO2 scrubbers.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12602807/china-uk-spies-tracked-bugged-submarine-smart-watch.html?ico=related-replace

[Lonewolf_50]

Reported by Bloomberg news service. At least they didn't run into the plane as happened with an American P-3 (about 20 years ago). I guess that Chinese airmanship is improving. Their attitude isn't, no surprise.
A Canadian general criticized the Chinese air force over an incident off the coast of the Asian nation that apparently saw a fighter jet cut off a patrol plane and drop flares in its path. The episode on Monday was reported (https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/operations/military-operations/current-operations/operation-neon.html) by Global News, which had journalists on the Canadian surveillance aircraft. Chinese fighters also flew within 5 meters (5.5 yards) of the plane, it added.

They became very aggressive and to a degree we would deem it unsafe and unprofessional,” Major-General Iain Huddleston (https://www.canada.ca/en/air-force/corporate/1-canadian-air-division/commander.html) told the Canadian news outlet. Canada didn’t want to have “anything untoward happen that would result in loss of life,” he said.
Beijing filed a diplomatic complaint with Ottawa over the incident in the South China Sea, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said Tuesday at a regular press briefing in Beijing, adding that in recent years Canadian planes have conducted reconnaissance “against China.”
“Canadian airships have made trouble at the doorstep of China,” she said. “Canada should respect facts and stop spreading false information.”
China’s Defense Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a faxed request for comment. The incident highlights China’s frustration over Western military flights near its shores, though they are carried out in international airspace. In May, the Pentagon said a Chinese fighter jet that swerved (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-30/us-accuses-china-of-aggressive-encounter-over-south-china-sea) in front of a US reconnaissance aircraft over the South China Sea behaved in an “unnecessarily aggressive maneuver.”

Last year, Chinese fighters reportedly buzzed (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-12/canada-defense-minister-says-china-s-behavior-is-concerning) Canadian planes in the region and released (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-06/australia-pm-reaches-out-to-china-over-fighter-jet-encounter) small pieces of aluminum in front of Australian aircraft. China claims all of the South China Sea as its territory, and such midair confrontations have the potential to escalate. In 2001, a US Navy surveillance plane collided with a Chinese fighter. The jet crashed and its pilot was never found, while the Navy’s EP-3 landed on the southern Chinese island of Hainan, provoking a ten-day standoff after which the 24 American crew members were finally released.

Canada said the 13-member crew of the plane involved in the incident Monday was part of a UN mission (https://www.canada.ca/en/department-national-defence/services/operations/military-operations/current-operations/operation-neon.html) aimed at enforcing sanctions against North Korea to encourage the nation to end its nuclear weapons program. The missions, which include Japan, France and the US, are aimed at spotting “evasion activities, in particular ship-to-ship transfers of fuel and other commodities,” according to Ottawa. Chinese interfering with a UN mission. Nice.

[Asturias56]

well since the Chinese don't obey the UN on N Korean sanctions I'm not surprised

[golder]

5 Eyes on China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NC-a1YqK5Q0

[Lonewolf_50]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1714204202266919004

The Japanese rail gun project. Progress.

[havoc]

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/10/18/Pentagon-accuses-China-harassment-aircraft/5931697609500/

[Asturias56]

"The Japanese rail gun project. Progress."

The wiring doesn't look very robust - nor spray proof.......................

[Ninthace]

"The Japanese rail gun project. Progress."

The wiring doesn't look very robust - nor spray proof.......................
I was more surprised it had a muzzle flash.

[Lonewolf_50]

The wiring doesn't look very robust - nor spray proof.......................
I get the idea that this is still a prototype. I had a similar thought to yours.
Production model will likely have a shroud or sleeve (composites, with various seals and O-Rings) over the wires and wire harnesses.
If they don't, the corrosive environment of being at sea will finish that thing in a hurry.

[Asturias56]

even being within a mile or so of the sea can do in buildings and equipment - but as you say its a prototype. just as long as they remember...............

[Lonewolf_50]

From essanews:
The U.S. Department of Defense has released a series of declassified photos and videos featuring dangerous aerial encounters between American and Chinese pilots.
s the Pentagon points out, they depict instances of coercion and risky operational behavior undertaken by the People's Liberation Army of China against American aircraft.
Materials published on Tuesday, October 17, present 15 recent cases of dangerous encounters in the air with Chinese fighter aircraft.
The Pentagon emphasizes that actions were taken against American machines that were "legally operating in international airspace in the areas of the East Sea and South China Sea"... reckless maneuvers, close approaches at high speeds in the air, and the launching of objects and missiles, such as flares. These appear to have increased in frequency since about 2021.

[jolihokistix]

As in the air, or more so, the Chinese repeatedly use their large armed 'coastguard' ships for blocking, challenging and aggression towards ships of Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, as if they owned the whole place.

[Asturias56]

!", as if they owned the whole place."

That is the nub of the problem - they believe they do................

[golder]

More 5 eyes. the sit down Q&AFBI Director Wray and 'Five Eyes' counterparts discuss threats in first joint appearance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqdGceOF8fk

[Lonewolf_50]

More 5 eyes. the sit down Q&AFBI Director Wray and 'Five Eyes' counterparts discuss threats in first joint appearance
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MqdGceOF8fk If I get some free time (The Missus is tasking me muchly today) I may get to have a look. Thanks for the link.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/zackcooper/status/1715993637513760793?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


”I fear that a serious crisis is unfolding at Second Thomas Shoal.

China appears determined to prevent resupply efforts by the Philippines, as they did most dangerously in 2014. Read a short summary of that case here:

https://amti.csis.org/counter-co-2nd-thomas-shoal/

Risky days ahead. Buckle up.”

​​​​​​​

[Big Pistons Forever]

With the West fully engaged with the Ukraine and the Middle East, I am not surprised China is willing to push boundaries. The world is becoming a very dangerous place....

[Lonewolf_50]

The new missile gap has arisen: China announces that their hypersonic missiles work.
China Makes Hypersonic Technology Breakthrough as US Lags Behind (newsweek.com) (https://www.newsweek.com/china-hypersonicmissile-military-us-waverider-1837151)

[Asturias56]

They always claim everything works - and of course there are a lot of people in the USA who are looking for a slug of govt cash to spend on "catching up" - Sputnik, the Blinder, various 1980's Russian missiles, Russian super-subs........... the list is long

[Ninthace]

I understood, perhaps wrongly, that a missile travelling at hypersonic speed became significantly warm and generated a plasma around it that interfered with control signals directed at same, Has this problem been solved or is hypersonic slower than it used to be?

[fdr]

They always claim everything works - and of course there are a lot of people in the USA who are looking for a slug of govt cash to spend on "catching up" - Sputnik, the Blinder, various 1980's Russian missiles, Russian super-subs........... the list is long

" ... and Anna Nicole married for love..."

[Lonewolf_50]

Trouble in the cabinet in Beijing.
TAIPEI. Taiwan (AP) — China has replaced Defense Minister Gen. Li Shangfu, who has been out of public view for almost two months, state media reported Tuesday. No further information was given. Li is the second senior Chinese official to disappear this year, following former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who was removed from office in July with no explanation offered.

[Ascend Charlie]

Has anybody checked the gardens below their windows in the defence building?

[Asturias56]

that's more a Russian HR tactic

[fitliker]

It will get interesting if they are able to take Taiwan like they took Hong Kong without a shot being fired . How close they are to achieving that objective might be closer than many think .

[Barksdale Boy]

It will get interesting if they are able to take Taiwan like they took Hong Kong without a shot being fired . How close they are to achieving that objective might be closer than many think .
The two situations are/were totally different.

[Asturias56]

The British has to hand back the lease on most of HK after 99 years - both sides agreed on that and more or less never wavered over the years - I don't think either side really liked the idea either way but a deal was a deal

Taiwan is different

[fitliker]

The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War (https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/3200649)
In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity”
― Sun-Tzu, A Arte da Guerra (https://www.goodreads.com/work/quotes/3200649)
They will succeed in Taiwan, without a shot being fired in anger . Different but same .

[havoc]

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/10/26/chinese-fighter-jet-b-52-intercept/4221698352863/

[henra]

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2023/10/26/chinese-fighter-jet-b-52-intercept/4221698352863/
Pity for the crew that it was at nighttime. Couldn't take nice close- up pictures similar to those of the cold war era pilots decorating their walls at home and giving them fond memories of times passed by.

[havoc]

Buff friends saying the photo taken using the sniper pod

[havoc]

Exclusive: Chinese jet fired flares close to submarine-hunting helicopter in South China Sea, Canadian Navy says (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/exclusive-chinese-jet-fired-flares-close-to-submarine-hunting-helicopter-in-south-china-sea-canadian-navy-says/ar-AA1jiK0v?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=e417a02e15024f5da6c34909e501d819&ei=130)Exclusive: Chinese jet fired flares close to submarine-hunting helicopter in South China Sea, Canadian Navy saysAChinese warplane fired flares in front of a Canadian military helicopter over international waters of the South China Sea last Sunday, an operation that Canadian military officers said was reckless and could have resulted in the downing of the aircraft.

“The risk to a helicopter in that instance is the flares moving into the rotor blades or the engines so this was categorized as both unsafe and non-standard, unprofessional,” said Maj. Rob Millen, air officer aboard the Royal Canadian Navy frigate HMCS Ottawa, the warship from which the Sikorsky Cyclone helicopter was flying.

The incident was the second of two encounters the Ottawa’s helicopter had with Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy J-11 fighter jets over international waters on October 29, which saw the fighters get as close as 100 feet from the helicopter, Millen told CNN in an interview aboard the warship.

He said that Canada and other nations have seen Chinese aircraft get close to fixed-wing aircraft on numerous occasions, but it was rare to see such action taken against a helicopter.

The first incident was over international waters outside of 34 miles from the Paracel Island chain in the northern part of the South China Sea. The second was also over international waters outside of 23 miles from the Paracels. The warship was operating in international waters 100 miles (160 kilometers) east of the Paracels at the time.

The Canadian helicopter was searching for a previously detected submarine when the incidents occurred, officers aboard the Ottawa said.

Millen said he was piloting the Canadian helicopter earlier in the day, when Chinese J-11s intercepted it at close range while it flew straight and level at 3,000 feet above the water back toward the Ottawa, a signal to that it had no hostile intent.

In that earlier encounter, Millen said the Chinese fighters flew in circles around his helicopter.

“When the intercepting aircraft was closer and closer, at a certain point it became unsafe,” he said.

His helicopter experienced turbulence coming off the Chinese jets, also posing a danger to the copter, Millen said.

“I certainly am not as comfortable as you can be based on the fragility of the rotor system,” he said.

Millen said he ended that encounter by descending to 200 feet, an area where the helicopter can operate but is “very uncomfortable for fast air fighter jets.”

The Canadian air force major said his military’s air crews train on how to respond to such intercepts as occurred on Sunday and will continue to fly over the international waters of the South China Sea.

Asked about the interception at a regular press briefing on Friday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin replied: “I’m not aware of the situation you mentioned.”

“We have reiterated many times our firm position on Canadian warplanes conducting reconnaissance near China’s territorial airspace,” he told reporters. “We hope Canada will refrain from its inappropriate behavior to avoid the situation from becoming more complicated.”

CNN has also reached to China’s Defense Ministry for comment.

China claims historic jurisdiction over almost the entirety of the vast South China Sea, (https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2018/08/asia/south-china-sea/?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_msn) and since 2014 has built up tiny reefs and sandbars into artificial islands heavily fortified with missiles, runways and weapons systems – sparking outcry from the other claimants. The Paracels, called the Xisha Islands by China, are in the northern part of the South China Sea, east of Da Nang, Vietnam, and south of China’s Hainan Island.

The 1.3-million-square-mile waterway is vital to international trade, with an estimated third of global shipping worth trillions of dollars passing through each year. It’s also home to vast fertile fishing grounds upon which many lives and livelihoods depend.

In 2016, an international tribunal (https://www.cnn.com/2016/07/12/asia/china-philippines-south-china-sea/index.html?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_msn) in The Hague concluded that China has no legal basis to claim historic rights to the bulk of the South China Sea. China has ignored the ruling.
Freedom of navigationMajor western powers frequently conduct passage across the sea in order to assert that the region is international waters, sparking Beijing’s ire.

The Ottawa had been patrolling the waterway since last Monday, at times operating with United States, Australian, Japanese and New Zealand naval vessels and aircraft in a multinational exercise dubbed Noble Caribou. However, it was operating alone when the encounters with the Chinese jets.

The Ottawa and the US Navy destroyer USS Rafael Peralta overnight Wednesday into Thursday local time continued their deployment into the Taiwan Strait, another international waterway and vital shipping channel that has seen tense

encounters between PLA and allied vessels.

Last June, the US Navy reported a close encounter between the destroyer USS Chung-Hoon and a Chinese warship during a Taiwan Strait transit, in which the US warship slowed down to avoid colliding with the Chinese navy vessel that cut in front of it. The Canadian frigate HMCS Montreal was accompanying the US ship at the time, and a news crew aboard it recorded the incident.

Then Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu blamed the US for ratcheting up tensions in the region when questioned by reporters at a defense conference in Singapore.

“They are not here for innocent passage, they are here for provocation,” Li said of US warships.

Li said if the US and other foreign powers did not want confrontation, they should not send their military assets near China.

“Mind your own business,” Li said, adding, “Why did all these incidents happen in areas near China, not in areas near other countries?”

This week’s passage of the allied warships through the strait was uneventful, however, with no contact reported.

Sunday’s incidents come after other reports of unsafe intercepts of allied aircraft in the recent days.

On Tuesday, a PLA fighter jet came within 10 feet of a US Air Force B-52 bomber flying over the South China Sea, the US military said.

And earlier in October, a Chinese fighter jet came within five meters (16 feet) of a Canadian CP-140 reconnaissance and surveillance plane over the East China Sea.

That incident was recorded by news crews aboard the Canadian aircraft and witnessed by Maj. Gen. Iain Huddleston, the commander of Canada’s 1st Air Division, who was also on the plane.

Huddleston called the intercept “unprofessional” and “very aggressive” in a report from Radio Canada, which was on the plane.

“The Canadian aircraft was subject to multiple close-proximity manoeuvres by a PLAAF aircraft that put the safety of all personnel at risk,” Canada’s Defense Ministry said in a statement.

China’s Foreign Ministry said the Canadian plane illegally entered Chinese airspace and accused the Canadian military of sending “warplanes halfway around the world to stir up trouble and make provocations at China’s doorsteps.”

In February, in an incident witnessed by a CNN crew, a Chinese fighter jet came within 500 feet of a US Navy reconnaissance plane flying at 21,500 feet about 30 miles from the Paracels.

Earlier this month, the Pentagon’s top official in charge of security in the Indo-Pacific, Ely Ratner, said that the US has seen more instances of “coercive and risky” behavior from Chinese pilots (https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/24/asia/us-navy-south-china-sea-flyover-intl-hnk-ml/index.html?cid=external-feeds_iluminar_msn) against US aircraft in the last two years over the East and South China Seas than in the entire decade before that.

“Since the fall of 2021, we have seen more than 180 such incidents,” Ratner said. “It’s a centralized and concerted campaign to perform these risky behaviors in order to coerce a change in lawful US operational activity.”

[Asturias56]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-67282107

The US is quietly arming Taiwan to the teeth

a rather tendentious article eg:-

Ask the Ministry of National Defence in Taipei what US money will be used for, and the response is a knowing smile and tightly sealed lips. But Dr Lai says it's possible to make educated guesses: Javelin and Stinger anti-aircraft missiles - highly effective weapons that forces can learn to use quickly. "We don't have enough of them, and we need a lot," he says. "In Ukraine, the Stingers have run out very quickly, and the way Ukraine has been using them suggests we need maybe 10 times the number we currently have."

The assessment of long-time observers is blunt: the island is woefully under-prepared for a Chinese attack.

The list of problems is long. Taiwan's army has hundreds of ageing battle tanks, but too few modern, light missile systems. Its army command structure, tactics and doctrine haven't been updated in half a century. Many front-line units have only 60% of the manpower they should have. Taiwan's counter-intelligence operations in China are reportedly non-existent and its military conscription system is broken. In 2013 Taiwan reduced military service from one year to just four months, before reinstating it back to 12 months, a move that takes effect next year. But there are bigger challenges. It's jokingly referred to as a "summer camp" by the young men who go through it.

etc etc

[rattman]

Indopacifc 2023 defence expo is on.

BAE really sharpened their pencil with their modified type-26 -> hunter -> airwarfare destroyer

Proposal is to remove all the ASW hardware and the multi mission bay, install a 64 cell MK-41 VLS and 16 NSM launches (4 * 4) in where the multi mission bay was. You can go up to 128 cell MK-41 if you are willing to lose the gun. The 64 cell VLS should be upgradable to the Mk-57 VLS, that proposed to go on zumwalts when the design is done

Their proposal is 6 hunter for multirole and 3 of these as AWD to join the hobarts

[ORAC]

It would also give them a chokehold on oil exports from the Gulf….

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1722071178540675545?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Biden Briefed on Chinese Effort to Put Military Base in Oman

Biden has been briefed on what his advisers see as a Chinese plan to build a military facility in Oman, people familiar with the matter said, amid a broader effort by Beijing to deepen defense and diplomatic ties with the Middle East.

Biden was told that Chinese military officials discussed the matter last month with Omani counterparts, who were said to be amenable to such a deal, said the people, who asked not to be identified discussing private deliberations.

They said the two sides agreed to more talks in the coming weeks.

China’s Foreign Ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment and the White House didn’t respond to multiple requests for comment.

Oman’s embassy in the US also didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Opening a base in Oman would complement Beijing’s other overseas military facility, which it refers to as a “logistics center” in the East African nation of Djibouti.

But the Pentagon has been saying for years that China wants to build more overseas military logistics facilities in the region including the United Arab Emirates and other nations in Asia, including Thailand, Indonesia and Pakistan.

The precise location of the possible base or what it would house wasn’t immediately known.

Oman is sometimes referred to as the Switzerland of the Middle East given that it follows a policy of neutrality and regularly acts as a mediator, including between the US and Iran.

It’s also sought to balance between maintaining its partnership with the US and nurturing ties with China, which imports the bulk of its crude output.

China also invested in the first stage of Oman’s Duqm special economic zone, which will be the site of the Middle East’s biggest oil-storage facility.

A base in Oman would amount to a challenge to the US, whose Central Command oversees troops stationed around the region, including in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

According to the American Security Project, Oman was the first Persian Gulf country to partner militarily with the US, signing an access agreement in 1980.

Oman also sits near the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most vital shipping lanes for oil and liquefied natural gas. The strait becomes a focal point whenever tensions flare with Iran.

China has also stepped up its diplomatic involvement in the region, including well before the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel that killed some 1,400 people.

In March, it helped broker a tentative detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, after years of diplomatic deadlock between the historic rivals.

China also held joint naval drills with Iran and Russia in the Gulf of Oman around the same time.

China has also pushed for a cease-fire in the days since the attack by Hamas, which is labeled a terrorist group by the US and the European Union, and Israel’s retaliatory response, which the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza says has killed some 10,000 people.

Concern over China’s rising influence in the Middle East has helped spur US efforts to keep its historic allies on its side.

Plans for a trade corridor between India and Europe via the Middle East, unveiled at the Group of 20 summit, are part of that broader effort to create alternatives to China.

[Asturias56]

Shock , panic horror :eek: :eek: :eek:

Chinese to try and open 6th foreign base

USA has over a thousand

[dead_pan]

Shock , panic horror :eek: :eek: :eek:

Chinese to try and open 6th foreign base

USA has over a thousand

What's good for the goose.... Weird they didn't opt for Yemen (maybe they have as well?) - it would have been a slam-dunk in terms getting support from the locals, also much better in terms of access to the Red Sea.

Personally this feels like something that won't have any impact for decades, given how far behind the Chinese are in terms of establishing anything matching the US's global footprint.

[Not_a_boffin]

Indopacifc 2023 defence expo is on.

BAE really sharpened their pencil with their modified type-26 -> hunter -> airwarfare destroyer

Proposal is to remove all the ASW hardware and the multi mission bay, install a 64 cell MK-41 VLS and 16 NSM launches (4 * 4) in where the multi mission bay was. You can go up to 128 cell MK-41 if you are willing to lose the gun. The 64 cell VLS should be upgradable to the Mk-57 VLS, that proposed to go on zumwalts when the design is done

Their proposal is 6 hunter for multirole and 3 of these as AWD to join the hobarts

I'd imagine the stability certification of that proposed modification might be described as "interesting"......

I can think of some other similarly interesting certification issues arising from the location of the "new" VLS cells as well.

[Asturias56]

"it would have been a slam-dunk in terms getting support from the locals, also much better in terms of access to the Red Sea"

I think any one looking at the history of the Yemen would look elsewhere - it's always in a state of chaos. And, like Afghanistan, the locals aren't terribly keen on each other but they LOATHE outsiders interfering. And for the Red Sea the Chinese also have a base in Djibouti so they have the Red Sea covered. I suspect Oman is more about India than Iran and the straits of Hormuz

[Lonewolf_50]

I suspect Oman is more about India than Iran and the straits of Hormuz That's what crossed my mind as well.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1722784003835695120?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Face off in the #SouthChinaSea as #Philippines is sending another resupply mission to Ayunging Shoal & #China deploys a large number of ships to block it.

China's blockading force includes 15 militia ships + 2 back near Mischief Reef + 3 en route. 4 coast guard ships also blocking but not broadcasting AIS are 21551 & 21555. CCG 21556 seen earlier.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1722715845460369468.html

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1722572237444927864?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Chinese military ‘directed’ by Beijing to ‘be increasingly provocative”: Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo

China wants "to create tense, uncomfortable situations in the hope that US and partner forces will vacate the space that every force has a right to be in," Pacific Fleet Commander Adm. Samuel Paparo said.

The nominee to lead US Indo Pacific Command offered a stark view today of the increasing number of dangerous actions by People’s Liberation Army ships and aircraft since he took over the Pacific Fleet in 2021.

“They are increasingly provocative and it’s deeply concerning,” Adm. Samuel Paparo told a small group of reporters at the Indo Pacific 2023 conference here. “At times, they’ve hazarded themselves, and they’ve hazarded the people that are in the vessels and aircraft they’ve interacted with.”

Asked if the Chinese pilots and ship captains were acting on their own or not, he said, “I believe they’ve been directed to be more aggressive and they have followed those orders.”

Paparo said the PRC is “pressing unlawful claims, with no basis in international law or custom. And they’re operating under the logic of military power.” The China of President Xi Jinping wants “to create tense, uncomfortable situations in the hope that US and partner forces will vacate the space that every force has a right to be in,” he said……

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1722830156153405839?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Chinese Rigid Hull Inflatable Boats harass, through unsafe/unprofessional maneuvers, the Philippines’ Motor Launch Kalayaan on a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin Shoal at around 7:30 this morning.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1723009784520270254?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


India’s Growing Involvement in the South China Sea Disputes

New Delhi has been offering military aid and more supportive rhetoric to China’s rival claimants, but there are clear limits to its involvement in the disputes.

India’s increasing involvement in the South China Sea under Prime Minister Narendra Modi – including India’s offer to provide helicopters to the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) amidst the rising tensions between Manila and Beijing – has raised China’s concerns…..

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1723028499051815344?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


US and India to co-produce Striker armored vehicles to counter #China

The announcement, made by a senior US defense official, came during the annual 2+2 ministerial consultations being held between the countries’ foreign and defense ministers in New Delhi.

The initiative “will strengthen the shared security of our countries by diversifying supply chains and supporting interoperability between our militaries,” US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said Friday in New Delhi.

The vehicles will help India push back against China along their disputed border, while also reducing New Delhi’s long-term dependence on Russian weapons.

The announcement comes as part of a multi-year effort to strengthen US-India ties through intelligence sharing, technology transfer and bolstered diplomatic ties. It also helps Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid to expand India’s industrial base.

An Indian official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the majority of the vehicles will be deployed along India’s border with China, where tensions have remained high after a clash in 2020 that killed soldiers on both sides. Some of the vehicles will also be deployed along India’s border with Pakistan.

New Delhi is seeking thousands of co-produced vehicles, most of which will be armed with anti-tank missile systems. The rest will be used for battlefield surveillance or as command vehicles, the official said.

The Stryker, a wheeled combat vehicle produced by General Dynamics Land Systems Inc., is prized by the US Army for its versatility. There are more than two dozen variants, which serve as infantry carriers, reconnaissance platforms, medical and engineering support, among other missions.

The US Army, in recent years, has added a 30mm cannon to the vehicle and worked to integrate directed energy weapons on the Strykers for short-range air defense.

The Biden administration has sent Strykers to Ukraine to aid its defense against Russia, in addition to Bradley fighting vehicles and Abrams tanks.

In June, during a state visit by Modi to Washington, the two countries pledged to deepen defense-industry ties, including technologies for intelligence, reconnaissance and surveillance, as well as aircraft engines and munitions.

As part of that push, the countries are working to streamline regulations, licensing and export controls, and to deepen ties between defense companies.

The US and India also plan to conduct more joint exercises across combatant commands and regions, according to a senior US defense official.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x919/image_a1d074d66fccfed720e10db87641a851f21b35aa.png
​​​​​​​

[ORAC]

Obviously tourists who got lost….

https://x.com/xvanfleet/status/1723360678956699799?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Taiwan media broke the news that the CCP sent its corps of engineers from Egypt into Gaza to help Hamas build the tunnel network. After Israel attacked Gaza, Hamas refused to release the CCP engineers.

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1229/image_a96f0a7f1f3bdb3c5a1dbf3b0e4955f54ebc026a.png

https://x.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1723090732787941419?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​Exclusive: #CCP Military Experts on #TunnelWarfare Hide and Trapped in #Gaza

According to disclosures by Chinese YouTuber Professor Liu Zheng, several #Chinese #military experts on tunnel warfare are hidden within #Hamas's tunnels. These experts have advised that tunnel entrances and rocket launch sites be placed in schools, hospitals, and churches, using civilians as human shields in hopes of evading #Israeli artillery fire.

As the Israeli military tightens its siege and offensive on #Gaza, these military advisors and tunnel warfare specialists, desperate to survive, have repeatedly requested to leave Gaza and enter #Egypt under the guise of foreign tourists.

However, to their surprise, the senior leadership of Hamas will not let them leave. The #CCP has had to send two delegations of envoys to #Doha and #Qatar to negotiate with the Hamas leadership the conditions for the withdrawal of Chinese military advisors and technical experts from Gaza.

[sycamore]

Might be nice if the USN sent one of their `boats` to run a few rings around the Chinese cutters,pop the looking glass up and say `Hello,we`re here to help`....

[rattman]

US and India to co-produce Striker armored vehicles to counter #China

The announcement, made by a senior US defense official, came during the annual 2+2 ministerial consultations being held between the countries’ foreign and defense ministers in New Delhi.




​​​​​​​

Wonder if they discussed that with canada, pretty sure they would tell india to **** off

[Asturias56]

Long special in this weeks Economist on the PLA.

Major takeaway- not as formidable as some people think

1. Difficulty in recruiting highly skilled troops - fall out from the single child policy

2. Weapons - some are very modern but they are still heavily dependent on Russia/Ukraine etc. Especially for marine & aircraft engines of all sorts

3. Lack of experience - haven't fought a war or engaged in active "peace keeping" of any sort for over 40 years. Zero experience of land/sea operations

4. Rampant corruption in many parts of the system - including promotions - hence recent clear out of senior Generals

5. Political control - some troops spend 25% of their time studying "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a new era"

6. Desperate need to learn lessons of the Ukraine etc - army still built around Russian type BTG's and all decisions are taken at a much higher level than in the West

7. Logistics - poor - "not strong enough to meet the conditions of modern warfare" according to the PLA Daily in Feb 2023. Most dumps are a long way from anywhere, almost nothing opposite Taiwan for example, and are dependent on outdated systems and poor road and rail connections.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1723960029475410235?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Chinese police to patrol in Thailand to boost tourist confidence

Unprecedented!!! Thailand is bending over to China for the sake of tourist revenue, after a couple of shootings where Chinese tourists got shot.

Thailand is very safe in general, I was there a month ago. Every once in a while something happens, that's normal, things happen, same everywhere else.

There is a Chinese agenda here.

Chinese social media mentioned that when Chinese people apply for visas to Thailand, Chinese police tried to discourage them saying that is not safe.

That's not normal, this issue has been created intentionally by the Chinese government and now we get this news.

First they scare Chinese tourists from going to Thailand, then they ask Thailand to deploy Chinese police there.

This is part of an agenda to influence Thailand, right after Cambodia has become a Chinese puppet.
---------------
Article text…….

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1064/image_6abaad77c67785b88088852af1077b1fbfa2362b.png

[ORAC]

Interest8ng video of the confrontation.

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1724041206395768944?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Philippine ships deftly outsmart and outmaneuver Chinese ships to win the lopsided 5 to 38 match-up.

The Philippines Coast Guard says they will not be deterred, even if China doubles or triples their deployment.

[havoc]

The US Air Force is training to take down Chinese warships, but China's military has built a 'wicked' problem for it to overcome (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-air-force-is-training-to-take-down-chinese-warships-but-china-s-military-has-built-a-wicked-problem-for-it-to-overcome/ar-AA1jQZFx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=da37b87b14e547dabaeca2be37add179&ei=10)The US Air Force is training to take down Chinese warships, but China's military has built a 'wicked' problem for it to overcome

China's navy has rapidly increased the size and capability of its fleet.
That expansion worries the US military, and it has reemphasized anti-ship warfare in its training.
That's not a new task for US pilots, but they now face a "wicked" threat from China's air defenses.

The US Air Force is working on improving its ability to sink well-defended warships, a reflection of the US military's concern about the growing size and increasing capability of China's navy.

Strikes against maritime targets are nothing new for US pilots, but China's military has spent decades developing its air defenses, installing thickets of surface-to-air missiles on land and on its warships that now pose a "wicked" problem for US forces, commanders say.

China has launched new, more advanced ships at steady clip (https://www.businessinsider.com/new-chinese-destroyers-in-south-china-sea-amid-shipbuilding-spree-2021-6) in recent years, building what is now the world's largest navy. It has also sent those ships on more complex operations across a wider swath of the Pacific. That larger, more capable force was on display in August 2022 during exercises of unprecedented size (https://chinapower.csis.org/tracking-the-fourth-taiwan-strait-crisis/) around Taiwan following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island.



Were there a clash with China over Taiwan, "the first target that we're going to have to deal with is the ships, because you saw when Speaker Pelosi went to Taiwan what they did with their ships. They put them on the east side of Taiwan as a sort of blockade," Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander of US Pacific Air Forces, said at an Air and Space Forces Association conference in March.

"Those ships can put up an anti-access/area-denial engagement zone, which comes from their surface-to-air missiles that they can shoot from the ships. So in order for us to get past those, we've got to sink the ships," Wilsbach said.
'Wicked dangerous'https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1jR1TB.img?w=534&h=401&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-air-force-is-training-to-take-down-chinese-warships-but-china-s-military-has-built-a-wicked-problem-for-it-to-overcome/ar-AA1jQZFx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=da37b87b14e547dabaeca2be37add179&ei=10&fullscreen=true#image=2)
A Type 055-class guided-missile cruiser in the Pacific in October 2021. Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty Images© Sun Zifa/China News Service via Getty ImagesWilsbach's comments reflect concerns about the arsenal China has built to counter US military operations (https://www.businessinsider.com/china-j20-stealth-jet-isnt-dominating-doesnt-need-to-be-2023-10), which includes "the world's densest and most integrated air-defense system" along China's east coast, according to Brendan Mulvaney, director of the China Aerospace Studies Institute, which is part of the Department of the Air Force.



That air-defense system is part of China's "counter-intervention" strategy, which is "focused on not necessarily how to defeat the United States piecemeal but how to keep the United States and our allies and partners out of the region," Mulvaney said on a podcast (https://defaeroreport.com/2023/09/12/defaero-strategy-series-sep-14-23-w-dr-brendan-mulvaney/) in September.

China's navy plans to fight under the cover of those defenses, and its Type 052D-class destroyers and Type 055-class cruisers could extend that umbrella.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1jR4tN.img?w=534&h=400&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-air-force-is-training-to-take-down-chinese-warships-but-china-s-military-has-built-a-wicked-problem-for-it-to-overcome/ar-AA1jQZFx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=da37b87b14e547dabaeca2be37add179&ei=10&fullscreen=true#image=2)
A Type 055-class cruiser fires its close-in weapon system at mock targets during a drill in May. eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Yang Yunxiang© Provided by Business Insider"The surface-to-air-missile systems they have on those tier-one surface-action-group assets is wicked, wicked dangerous territory — significantly more dangerous than anything that's fielded in and around Ukraine," Gen. Mark Kelly said of those warships during an Air and Space Forces Conference in September.



"If you then look at the fact that they have the same systems up and down the coast, if you look at what they can do in terms of jamming across the electromagnetic spectrum, if you look at their inventory of air-to-air missiles, and the list goes on and on," added Kelly, who leads the training and organizing of Air Force units as head of Air Combat Command.

China's military hasn't fought a war since 1979, and its new naval and air forces are untested in combat, but Chinese strategists have studied other wars (https://www.businessinsider.com/china-learns-lessons-about-seizing-taiwan-from-the-falklands-war-2021-4) and learned from other militaries — that likely includes lessons from America's use of "rings of air- and missile-defense management," ranging from combat air patrols by carrier aircraft down to each ship's close-in weapon systems, said Lyle Goldstein, director of Asia engagement at Defense Priorities, a think tank.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1jQVv8.img?w=534&h=356&m=6&x=0&y=697&s=1048&d=235 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-air-force-is-training-to-take-down-chinese-warships-but-china-s-military-has-built-a-wicked-problem-for-it-to-overcome/ar-AA1jQZFx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=da37b87b14e547dabaeca2be37add179&ei=10&fullscreen=true#image=2)
Visitors stand around missile tubes aboard a Type 052D-class destroyer in Hong Kong in July 2017. TENGKU BAHAR/AFP via Getty Images© TENGKU BAHAR/AFP via Getty Images"I think it's fair to say that they may even be on par with us," Goldstein said in an interview in May. "China generally gets high marks in air defense, and they've come a long way, and they've gotten a lot of coaching from the Russians."

A weakness in China's naval air-defense network is the inability of its current aircraft carriers, Liaoning and Shandong, to launch airborne-early-warning-and-control aircraft (https://www.businessinsider.com/e2d-quarterback-of-carrier-air-wings-first-flew-in-2007-2022-8) like those that fly from US carriers to direct friendly forces and monitor enemy ships and aircraft.

Those carriers would likely stay near Taiwan during a conflict, protected by China's air force and the "very robust air defense and missile defense" of Type 052D- and Type 055-class ships, Goldstein said.

But China's newest carrier, Fujian, has an electromagnetic catapult (https://www.businessinsider.com/top-admiral-navy-too-much-new-tech-aircraft-carrier-ford-2021-8) that will allow it to launch the KJ-500 airborne-early-warning-and-control plane, extending China's radar coverage and providing "a major jump" in capability, Goldstein said.
Old skills, new focushttps://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1jQZF5.img?w=534&h=401&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-air-force-is-training-to-take-down-chinese-warships-but-china-s-military-has-built-a-wicked-problem-for-it-to-overcome/ar-AA1jQZFx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=da37b87b14e547dabaeca2be37add179&ei=10&fullscreen=true#image=2)
A captured German cruiser being bombed by US aircraft during a test in July 1921. US Naval History and Heritage Command© US Naval History and Heritage CommandUS pilots have trained to sink warships (https://www.businessinsider.com/bomber-demo-before-wwii-showed-navies-vulnerability-to-air-attack-2022-7) since the early 1920s, well before the Air Force's founding in 1947. That mission has remained part of the service's repertoire, even during recent ground wars.

"I can tell you from experience in 2007, although my unit was in the thick of considering waging warfare in Iraq or Afghanistan at the time, we executed a Pacific theater deployment and specifically integrated with the Navy and other partners," John Baum, a former US Air Force F-16 pilot, said in an interview in March.

"And of course, maritime strike was a training skill set that we worked on then," added Baum, now a senior resident fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies.

The Air Force's attention to the maritime-strike mission has varied (https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/bombers-for-maritime-strike-an-asymmetric-counter-to-chinas-navy/) over time, however, and recent milestones in training and weapons development indicate a renewed focus on being able take down enemy ships.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1jR6LS.img?w=534&h=355&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-air-force-is-training-to-take-down-chinese-warships-but-china-s-military-has-built-a-wicked-problem-for-it-to-overcome/ar-AA1jQZFx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=da37b87b14e547dabaeca2be37add179&ei=10&fullscreen=true#image=2)
US Air Force A-10s at Naval Air Station North Island in California for Green Flag-West in November 2022. US Air Force/Senior Airman Zachary Rufus© US Air Force/Senior Airman Zachary RufusA major exercise in November 2022, called Green Flag-West (https://www.nellis.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3226384/adapt-to-win-green-flag-west-23-02/), departed from its traditional focus on air-to-ground missions with the US Army and saw Air Force pilots work with the Navy "on facilitating air operations in maritime surface warfare missions, air-to-surface," the service said.

In another exercise a few weeks later, Air Force Weapons School students worked with Navy units on the school's "largest-ever over-water joint counter maritime exercise." Col. Daniel Lehoski, the Weapons School commandant, said (https://www.nellis.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/3242190/wsint-22b-usaf-weapons-school-conducts-largest-ever-over-water-joint-counter-ma/) afterward that a war in the Pacific would be "a maritime fight" and that it was the school's responsibility "to produce graduates who have both the capability and confidence to build, teach, and lead in the joint, maritime environment."

A maritime focus was also evident this year in the major air-combat exercises known as Red Flag at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada.

Red Flag 23-1 in February expanded its training area to include airspace over the Pacific for the first time. Red Flag 23-3, held this summer, incorporated a US Navy carrier strike group as it conducted a pre-deployment exercise. It was "the largest adaptation" of Red Flag in its 50-year history, Kelly, of Air Combat Command, said on social media.
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1jQQMl.img?w=534&h=401&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-air-force-is-training-to-take-down-chinese-warships-but-china-s-military-has-built-a-wicked-problem-for-it-to-overcome/ar-AA1jQZFx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=da37b87b14e547dabaeca2be37add179&ei=10&fullscreen=true#image=2)
F-16 pilots with the 64th Aggressor Squadron, which replicates enemy tactics, at Red Flag 23-1 in January. US Air Force/William R. Lewis© US Air Force/William R. LewisAnother Air Force official said Red Flag and other drills have made "an exponential leap" toward Pacific-focused scenarios over the past decade, adopting training that includes the "unique challenges" of "flying sorties over exposed ocean."

The Air Force is also updating its arsenal for maritime operations. It has tested a modified version of its Joint Direct Attack Munition, known as "Quicksink (https://www.afrl.af.mil/News/Article/3014096/afrl-technology-makes-new-weapon-for-sinking-ships-a-reality/)," to meet "an urgent need to neutralize maritime threats" and studied the use of other weapons (https://www.businessinsider.com/a10-warthog-trying-a-new-role-decoying-enemy-air-defense-2022-12) in austere environments like those in the Pacific region.

The service is also looking for new anti-ship missiles. This spring, it announced plans to buy 268 Joint Strike Missiles over the next five years, which an official said would "bridge that gap" until it acquires more of the larger Long Range Anti-Ship Missile (https://www.navair.navy.mil/product/Long-Range-Anti-Ship-Missile-LRASM), which the Navy and Air Force both want and Lockheed Martin is scrambling to build (https://www.airandspaceforces.com/lockheed-martin-double-lrasm-production/).

New targeting systems have only made it easier "to find, fix, track, and target a ship," Baum said. "Now we have all-weather capabilities with new sensors on airplanes and also new weapons and fusing options available, so the targeting scenario, frankly, is much easier today than it was in the past, even 15 or 20 years ago."

While there are "different considerations" for finding targets on land and at sea, "from a technology standpoint, the Air Force has been committed to be able to hold any target at risk at any time on the planet," Baum added. "I don't think that that's any different considering the [Indo-Pacific Command] area and maritime targets."
https://img-s-msn-com.akamaized.net/tenant/amp/entityid/AA1jR4ul.img?w=534&h=400&m=6 (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-us-air-force-is-training-to-take-down-chinese-warships-but-china-s-military-has-built-a-wicked-problem-for-it-to-overcome/ar-AA1jQZFx?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=da37b87b14e547dabaeca2be37add179&ei=10&fullscreen=true#image=2)
A GBU-31 Joint Direct Attack Munition used in a Quicksink experiment in April 2022. US Air Force/1st Lt. Lindsey Heflin© US Air Force/1st Lt. Lindsey HeflinAir Force officials know China's military will try to use the Pacific's vast distances to challenge their operations and are making adaptations, including developing more dispersed air bases (https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-force-needs-new-ways-to-defend-pacific-bases-2022-1) and investing in more efficient tanker aircraft (https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-force-blended-wing-body-design-tankers-cargo-planes-2023-8) and in drones that could fly ahead of crewed jets (https://www.businessinsider.com/us-air-force-collaborative-combat-aircraft-drones-fighter-jets-2023-5).

But the recent focus on integrating with naval forces is a sign the Air Force knows jets and bombs alone may not be enough to sink better-defended warships operating over greater ranges. Wilsbach said in September that training by Pacific Air Forces has emphasized "stacking effects" to bring more weapons to bear.

"The stacking of effects starts in cyber, then there's a space, then there's an air, there may be a surface, and there may be a subsurface component, with electronic combat happening — all needing to arrive on the target coincidentally," Wilsbach said.

"In a dynamic environment where aircraft and ships and perhaps ground units from the Army, with satellites traveling through space, all have to synchronize in time and space so the effects occur at the same time on the target — so you get munitions on the target to destroy and hopefully sink the ship, as an example — that we are working on constantly," Wilsbach said.

[India Four Two]

Potentially Jet Blast material, but I thought it was appropriate to post here. :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgspkxfkS4k

[rattman]

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/11/south-korean-admiral-claims-that-nuclear-powered-submarines-are-necessary/

Interesting article from Naval News. I have since first announcement of AUKUS thought that SK is the most obvious 4th member of AUKUS.

[golder]

Why wouldn't Sth Korea say "me too"? We are closer to Japan. Having both of them in the same room, will be loud.
Japan partnering with the UK for Tempest is also close to an AUKUS partner. Then we have the loyal wingman.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/U.S.-and-Australia-agree-to-cooperate-with-Japan-on-military-drones

The U.S. and Australia will join hands with Japan to develop next-generation military drones, the leaders of the two countries announced Wednesday, stepping up efforts in the field of "collaborative combat aircraft."

U.S. President Joe Biden and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese released a joint statement after their White House meeting, noting that the two allies will "explore trilateral cooperation with Japan" on unmanned aerial systems.

"Our cooperation aims to enhance interoperability and accelerate technology transfer in the rapidly emerging field of collaborative combat aircraft and autonomy," the statement said.

[rattman]

Why wouldn't Sth Korea say "me too"? We are closer to Japan. Having both of them in the same room, will be loud.
Japan partnering with the UK for Tempest is also close to an AUKUS partner. Then we have the loyal wingman.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/U.S.-and-Australia-agree-to-cooperate-with-Japan-on-military-dronesThe U.S. and Australia will join hands with Japan to develop next-generation military drones, the leaders of the two countries announced Wednesday, stepping up efforts in the field of "collaborative combat aircraft."



Link doesn't work but assuming its a MQ-28 program, I think the the MQ-28 will be targetted to any country that uses F-35. But also I been saying from day dot that australia getting involved in tempest program via the Mq-28 is a no brainer. Saves UK developing the CCA hence saving money and they integrate tempest and MQ-28 right from the start. MQ-28 wont give much to the UK for its F-35, but its wedgetails will be able to integrate it

[golder]

Sorry, I fixed the link. It doesn't reference the MQ-28, but it is possible. Whatever it finishes up being, it looks like a joint trilevel.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1725495370082570563?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Vietnam Ramps Up Spratly Islands Dredging in the South China Sea | Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative

Over the last year, Vietnam has continued with a substantial program of dredging and landfill work in the Spratly Islands which began in 2021.

Since AMTI last surveyed these efforts in December 2022, Vietnam has created another 330 acres of land, bringing its total during the current spate of building to 750 acres.

By contrast, Vietnam had created just 120 acres of land in the Spratlys between 2012 and 2022. This all adds up to about a quarter of the more than 3,200 acres of land created by China from 2013 to 2016, but it is far more island expansion than any other claimant besides China has undertaken. And in October 2023, Vietnam began new dredging at two additional outposts.

Five small and medium-sized outposts stand out in terms of the acreage of new land.

Barque Canada Reef has undergone the largest transformation by far. Formerly one of Vietnam’s smallest outposts, over 210 acres of new land have been created at Barque Canada in the last year, making it now the largest Vietnamese-occupied feature in the South China Sea.

Landfill and harbor dredging has continued at Pearson Reef and Namyit Island, where 163 and 119 acres have been added since work began in 2021. Work has also continued at Sand Cay and Tennent Reef, which have been expanded by 82 and 62 acres respectively since 2021.

In order to accelerate its dredging efforts, Vietnam has turned to a tool that it had previously shied away from: cutter suction dredgers.

Seen in imagery aiding with the massive expansion of Barque Canada Reef and deepening the harbors at Pearson Reef and Namyit Island, these dredgers are of the same type that China was criticized for using during its island-building campaign in 2014-2017 due to their outsize ecological impact.

This October, Vietnam began dredging at two additional features: South Reef and Central Reef.

Dredging at these features has proceeded thus far using Vietnam’s more typical method of building temporary causeways to allow construction vehicles to scoop sediment from surrounding shallow reef areas.

Dredging has continued at a smaller scale at Alison Reef, Cornwallis South Reef, Ladd Reef, and Discovery Great Reef, which each have less than 20 acres of new land.

But the rapid enlargement of similarly small Barque Canada Reef over the last year means that a major expansion of any of these reefs in the future cannot be ruled out.

Vietnam’s efforts thus far have remained focused primarily on dredging and landfill, with construction of infrastructure yet to begin in earnest at most features. Preliminary construction of tunnels/trenches of a type common among Vietnamese outposts can be seen at Namyit Island.

It has been speculated that Vietnam would use its expansion efforts to construct a second airstrip in the Spratly Islands, but the current arrangement of landfill at Namyit Island and Pearson Reef does not have allowance for a runway large enough for military use.

The new scale of Barque Canada Reef would allow for the possibility of a runway, but there are no indications of efforts to construct one, with work currently focused on expanding the land area.

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1525x1229/image_b8b73d75a5214970dbb23bcba834c773d39ec7fe.jpeg
​​​​​​​

[rattman]

FMS for Japanese purchase of 400 tomahawks have been granted

https://breakingdefense.com/2023/11/us-clears-2-4b-deal-with-japan-for-hundreds-of-tomahawk-missiles-systems/

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/nov/18/australian-naval-divers-injured-after-being-subjected-to-chinese-warships-sonar-pulses

Australian naval divers injured after being subjected to Chinese warship’s sonar pulses

Australian naval divers have been injured after an “unsafe and unprofessional” run-in with a Chinese warship.

The acting prime minister, Richard Marles, on Saturday said the Australian government had expressed “serious concerns” to Chinese officials after the HMAS Toowoomba encountered a People’s Liberation Army-Navy destroyer on Tuesday.

The Toowoomba was in international waters in Japan’s exclusive economic zone, having worked to enforce United Nations sanctions, and was on its way to a scheduled port visit when fishing nets became entangled around its propellers.

The ship stopped so naval divers could clear the nets and its crew communicated what it was doing through the usual maritime channels, Marles said in a statement.

While the diving operation took place, the Chinese PLA-N destroyer DDG-139 came towards the Toowoomba, prompting its crew to reiterate a dive was under way and ask for the warship to stay clear.

The Chinese vessel acknowledged the message but came even closer, and was soon after detected operating its hull-mounted sonar, posing a risk to the Australian divers’ safety, Marles said.

The divers, who were assessed after they surfaced, sustained minor injuries likely because they were subjected to the sonar pulses, he said.

“This is unsafe and unprofessional conduct,” Marles said. “The safety and wellbeing of our [Australian Defence Force] personnel continues to be our utmost priority.

“Australia expects all countries, including China (https://www.theguardian.com/world/china), to operate their militaries in a professional and safe manner.”…

Divers exposed to high levels of underwater sound can suffer from dizziness, hearing damage or injuries to other organs, depending on the frequency and intensity of the sound, according to the UK’s Diving Medical Advisory Committee….

[Gnadenburg]

Too feeble a response from the Australian government.

[Asturias56]

can't afford to take it any further..............................

[Gnadenburg]

It’s a tightrope in how you deal with the level of recklessness and aggression from the PLA but this response is too feeble. It normalises events and we are a whisker away from something way more serious.

Firmer language and a push for a bigger Cope Thunder next year with QUAD members should be adequate push back.

[fitliker]

Any reports on where the nets came from or how they happened to entangle the ship ?
Underwater drones or ROVs in the area ?

[Big Pistons Forever]

Seems to me deliberate targeting of RAN personnel is a demonstration of hostile intent. Dealing with PLA Forces is like lion taming, back down and you are dead meat, stand up and roar back and you get their respect.

[Asturias56]

So what are you suggesting HMAS Toowoomba should have done?

[Ninthace]

So what are you suggesting HMAS Toowoomba should have done?
Hard to stand on your dignity with a net round your props!

[henra]

Hard to stand on your dignity with a net round your props!
Plus operating a sonar in this case was indeed a dedicated unfriendly act but it is hard to be classified as a military aggressive act which would warrant firing a salvo. Symmetric response would be to also activate your Sonar but what would be the benefit? Maybe they need to install powerfull underwater loudspeakers which blow off the headphones of the Sonar operators... ;-)

[Big Pistons Forever]

So what are you suggesting HMAS Toowoomba should have done?

As I understood the PLA ship was told there was divers in the water, and then activated their Sonar and did not stop even when told they were injuring RAN personnel in the water. I would suggest that next step is to tell them you are going to light them up with a fire control Radar with missiles on route unless the Sonar stops. The PLA will keep pushing with more and more aggressive steps unless some redlines get drawn.

Using the Sonar was a deliberate act design to injure ships personnel, that can't be allowed to stand.

[Ninthace]

Or you just take your divers out of the water into the support boat and wait until the Chinese get bored.

[Big Pistons Forever]

Or you just take your divers out of the water into the support boat and wait until the Chinese get bored.

Except they are likely already injured….

[golder]

We let them build on the shoals. China was the US banker at the time. The courts had said their was no China claim to the shoals. Through the UN we should have put in place a blockade, for want of a better PC word.

[megan]

As I understood the PLA ship was told there was divers in the waterMariners have either of these two flags to signify the ship has divers in the water, signifies a blatant act on the part of the PLA to use sonar.


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1460x541/eoceanic_the_red_and_white_flag_and_alpha_or_alfa_flag_both_ mean_i_have_a_diver_down_keep_well_clear_at_slow_speed_f2d0d 24336351c7065dee8bc278ad7495a82e1da.jpg

[jolihokistix]

Maybe they caught some of that famous Chinese sub netting.

[ORAC]

Like Japan before it, China has peaked. With an aging population and the reserve of peasants from the land who can feed into the city industries its prospects are bleak - there are also articles reflecting how they can no longer attract the technologically skilled men they need into the military.

Their window of opportunity to overtake the USA as the dominant economy, an£ currency has closed and India will increasingly be the dominant power in the east…

The question is whether they will seek to move against Taiwan whilst they can - and to distract from the bad news at home…

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1726467528988528896?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China’s rise is reversing - FT

China’s share of the global economy is declining, and most economists expect this to continue.

"In 2022, China's share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17%. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s."

These numbers are in "nominal" dollar terms — unadjusted for inflation — the measure that most accurately captures a nation's relative economic strength.

China aims to reclaim the imperial status it held from the 16th to early 19th centuries, when its share of world economic output peaked at one-third, but that goal may be slipping out of reach.

China's decline could reorder the world.

Since the 1990s, the country's share of global GDP grew mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or less steady over the past two years. The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other emerging nations.

To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105n. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent.

Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.

Moreover, China's slipping share of world GDP in nominal terms is not based on independent or foreign sources. The nominal figures are published as part of their official GDP data. So China's rise is reversing by Beijing's own account.

Further, over the past decade, China's government has grown more meddlesome, and its debts are historically high for a developing country. These forces are slowing growth in productivity, measured as output per worker.

This combination — fewer workers, and anaemic growth in output per worker — will make it difficult in the extreme for China to start winning back share in the global economy.

In nominal dollar terms, China's GDP is on track to decline in 2023, for the first time since a large devaluation of the renminbi in 1994.

Given the constraints to real GDP growth, in the coming years Beijing can only regain global share with a spike in inflation or in the value of the renminbi — but neither is likely.

China is one of the few economies suffering from deflation, and it also faces a debt-fuelled property bust, which typically leads to a devaluation of the local currency.

Investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the renminbi. Foreigners cut investment in Chinese factories and other projects by $12n in the third quarter — the first such drop since records begin. Locals, who often flee a troubled market before foreigners do, are leaving too.

Chinese investors are making outward investments at an unusually rapid pace and prowling the world for real estate deals.

[Lonewolf_50]

Please forgive my skepticism: I'll take Mark Twain's view and suggest that reports of China's demise are greatly exaggerated.

[tartare]

Like Japan before it, China has peaked. With an aging population and the reserve of peasants from the land who can feed into the city industries its prospects are bleak - there are also articles reflecting how they can no longer attract the technologically skilled men they need into the military.

Their window of opportunity to overtake the USA as the dominant economy, an£ currency has closed and India will increasingly be the dominant power in the east…

The question is whether they will seek to move against Taiwan whilst they can - and to distract from the bad news at home…



China’s rise is reversing - FT

China’s share of the global economy is declining, and most economists expect this to continue.

"In 2022, China's share of the world economy shrank a bit. This year it will shrink more significantly, to 17%. That two-year drop of 1.4 per cent is the largest since the 1960s."

These numbers are in "nominal" dollar terms — unadjusted for inflation — the measure that most accurately captures a nation's relative economic strength.

China aims to reclaim the imperial status it held from the 16th to early 19th centuries, when its share of world economic output peaked at one-third, but that goal may be slipping out of reach.

China's decline could reorder the world.

Since the 1990s, the country's share of global GDP grew mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or less steady over the past two years. The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other emerging nations.

To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105n. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent.

Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.

Moreover, China's slipping share of world GDP in nominal terms is not based on independent or foreign sources. The nominal figures are published as part of their official GDP data. So China's rise is reversing by Beijing's own account.

Further, over the past decade, China's government has grown more meddlesome, and its debts are historically high for a developing country. These forces are slowing growth in productivity, measured as output per worker.

This combination — fewer workers, and anaemic growth in output per worker — will make it difficult in the extreme for China to start winning back share in the global economy.

In nominal dollar terms, China's GDP is on track to decline in 2023, for the first time since a large devaluation of the renminbi in 1994.

Given the constraints to real GDP growth, in the coming years Beijing can only regain global share with a spike in inflation or in the value of the renminbi — but neither is likely.

China is one of the few economies suffering from deflation, and it also faces a debt-fuelled property bust, which typically leads to a devaluation of the local currency.

Investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the renminbi. Foreigners cut investment in Chinese factories and other projects by $12n in the third quarter — the first such drop since records begin. Locals, who often flee a troubled market before foreigners do, are leaving too.

Chinese investors are making outward investments at an unusually rapid pace and prowling the world for real estate deals.

This is the Hal Brands thesis.
China is basically at peak dangerousness in the next few years.
After that, it's all downhill...

[rattman]

I know a few people who now used to work in china. Western flight from china is bad atm, it cant get much worse as there isn't many left. One lived in an apartment building for westerners. There was 120 apartment, you used to have wait for someone to move out ( could be months). The day he moved out, there was only 3 inhabited apartments left. Also add in that chinas biggest single non govt employer, foxcon, is having big issues atm. The owner of foxcon is running for presidency of taiwan and the CCP is not happy and have been giving him a hard time so hes moving business to India, vietnam and indonesia

[golder]

Those lying Aussies....:p
https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/naval/13168-china-rebuffs-reckless-and-irresponsible-accusations-of-hmas-toowoomba-incident
"completely untrue
We urge the Australian side to respect the facts, stop making reckless and irresponsible accusations against China, do more to build up mutual trust between the two sides, and create a positive atmosphere for the sound development of relations between the two countries and two militaries.

The Chinese military is strictly disciplined and always operates professionally in accordance with the international law and international common practices.

We hope relevant parties will stop making trouble in front of China’s doorsteps and work with China to preserve the momentum of improving and growing China–Australia ties."

[fdr]

Please forgive my skepticism: I'll take Mark Twain's view and suggest that reports of China's demise are greatly exaggerated.


Maybe.

PRC has structural issues that need action to head off that is not likely with the current emperor. They could, but will they? they have an upside down demographics and a bubble of biblical proportions, and the boss smokes those that bring bad news,

Nothing can go wrong with# dat!

[ORAC]

https://x.com/alexandruc4/status/1727051376210104644?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


​​​​​​​BREAKING: Reports that China's most advanced ship 980 hull number Type 071 landing ship (Longhushan) is on fire

[rattman]

​​​​​​​BREAKING: Reports that China's most advanced ship 980 hull number Type 071 landing ship (Longhushan) is on fire


I dont think it is, seems they lit oils barrels on 3 locations, claims its to test the air tightness of the ship. Guess we will know soonish

[Asturias56]

Maybe.

PRC has structural issues that need action to head off that is not likely with the current emperor. They could, but will they? they have an upside down demographics and a bubble of biblical proportions, and the boss smokes those that bring bad news,

Nothing can go wrong with# dat!

what I found interesting in the Economist article the other week was the scale of corruption in the PLA - even selling promotions - and it goes all the way to the top apparently

[NutLoose]

Chinas most modern naval vessel, a landing ship is on fire... it looks bad.

https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1727051376210104644

https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1727051376210104644

Apparently they were having a feast for the ship crews moral and lit a flaming duck dish with high proof alcohol and up went the ship...Flaming duck to dead duck in one.


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/586x1023/f_fxviaa0aad3vm_1_08400efa3ff64446d5c496f3a208f8446ca3412a.j pg

[Lonewolf_50]

I found the opener to the Moose Census article to be more interesting.

[havoc]

China Calls America's Bluff in the South China Sea (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-calls-america-s-bluff-in-the-south-china-sea/ar-AA1kmtPq?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=15d1843e6fed400b84165a3201486252&ei=14)
The Philippines (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/philippines) and the United States—one of the oldest alliances in Asia—began three days of joint air and sea patrols in the South China Sea on Tuesday aimed at pushing back against China's constant probing in the region.

The exercise, which runs through Thursday, involves the Philippine Air Force and the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM). It is taking place in the "West Philippine Sea," Manila's name for the portion of the South China Sea (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/south-china-sea) that falls within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, where Beijing has been actively asserting its claim to contested islands, reefs and atolls in the Spratly Islands archipelago.

In a recent visit to Hawaii, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. issued one of his strongest rebukes (https://www.newsweek.com/philippines-president-says-china-threats-growing-1845498) yet of China's "persistent unlawful threats and challenges against Philippine sovereign rights and jurisdictions." In his 17 months in office, Marcos' government has filed dozens, if not hundreds, of diplomatic protests with Beijing over the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia's harassment of Filipino fishermen and coast guard vessels.

In at least half a dozen run-ins around Manila-held Second Thomas Shoal (https://www.newsweek.com/second-thomas-shoal-chinas-bid-dislodge-philippines-1843429) since August, the Philippines has accused Chinese ships of unleashing water cannons, setting up barriers and blockades, and ramming. In February, a Philippine Coast Guard crew was said to have been temporarily blinded by a Chinese coast guard ship's "military-grade laser."

Each of the incidents drew a strongly worded response from the U.S. State Department and last month from the U.S. president himself. Joe Biden (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/joe-biden) reaffirmed the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty of 1951 and pledged to respond militarily against any attack on Filipino servicemembers, including in the South China Sea.

But the constant Chinese pressure in the "gray zone"—actions that short of war—has not stopped; skepticism about the depth of Washington's commitment is rising, observers in the region say, at a time when multiple conflicts are testing America's bandwidth.

In a post on X (formerly Twitter (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/twitter)) on Monday, Derek Grossman, a security analyst at the RAND Corp. think tank, said (https://twitter.com/DerekJGrossman/status/1726703538028634232) interlocutors in the Philippines were questioning the U.S.'s commitment to defend Manila's de facto territories in the Spratlys, after the long-time American ally lost ground to Beijing in the previous decades and had to watch as China built now fully militarized artificial islands (https://www.newsweek.com/china-has-weapons-least-3-islands-south-china-sea-us-official-1689979) in the area.

The Philippines is "very pro-U.S.," Grossman wrote (https://twitter.com/derekjgrossman/status/1726880371059618145) on Tuesday. But memories of U.S. inaction when, in 2012, Chinese forces wrested Scarborough Shoal (https://www.newsweek.com/china-philippines-scarborough-shoal-1839648) from Manila's control remain "an anti-U.S. trigger," he said.

In 2014, the Obama administration brought the disputed Senkaku Islands (https://www.newsweek.com/china-japan-senkaku-diaoyu-islands-coast-guard-1833294) within the scope of Washington's security treaty with Tokyo. Manila, however, had to wait five more years until the Trump administration publicly committed American power toward the defense of Philippine-held territories in the South China Sea—"a betrayal," Grossman said.

Reached by email, the State Department and INDOPACOM referred Newsweek to previous government statements.

China (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/china) asserts ownership over the territories and maritime zones of nearly the entirety of the energy-rich South China Sea, challenging some half a dozen neighboring states in the process. Beijing appears to have the wherewithal to tirelessly probe the defenses of major claimants including the Philippines and Vietnam.

The U.S., meanwhile, has in recent years stepped up warnings (https://www.newsweek.com/us-dismisses-china-maritime-claims-south-china-sea-state-department-report-1668973) about the implications of acquiescing to Chinese control of local sea lines—critical maritime trade routes that carry an estimated one-third of global shipping.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said on Wednesday that the U.S.-Philippines patrols "should not harm China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights."

China's immediate aim is to prevent the Philippines from resupplying and repairing the BRP Sierra Madre—a rusty Philippine Navy warship grounded at Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 for use as an outpost—after which it would "likely move in to establish its own control over the reef," said Gregory Poling, director of the Southeast Asia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, D.C.

"In the long term, it hopes to use non-military pressure (https://www.newsweek.com/chinese-coast-guard-ships-swarm-philippine-supply-mission-1842559) to convince the Philippines and all the other claimants that resistance is futile and they should acknowledge China's claimed historic rights to all of the South China Sea," Poling told Newsweek.

China's gray zone moves against the U.S. ally were not aimed at testing America's resolve, Poling said. Beijing "doesn't have any better ideas," he said, arguing that its tactics were backfiring and pushing the Philippines—and others—closer to the United States.

Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at Taiwan's top military think tank, the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, told Newsweek that Beijing had identified U.S.-skeptic elements in Manila as a potential vulnerability in what has become a "ring of containment" against China—led by the U.S. and featuring South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines.

The Chinese navy's submarines operate frequently in the depths of the South China Sea, Su said. "The People's Liberation Army (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/peoples-liberation-army)'s activities not only test the bottom line of the U.S. military (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/u.s.-military), but also use the U.S. military's presence to 'train' the PLA and protect the movements of its underwater fleet."

"It's like killing three birds with one stone," he said.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1727294432230375872?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Pacific shift: US to build a ‘missile wall’ against China

US general confirms plan to deploy long- and intermediate-range missiles to the Pacific in 2024.

Japan is the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles.

The US is closer to deploying long-range land-based missiles to deter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a provocative move that could spark a destabilizing conventional missile arms race in the Pacific.

General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, stated at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, that the US will deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024, Defense One reported.

The deployment was made possible by the US’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 due to Russia’s alleged non-compliance. The Defense One report says the US Army’s Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), which can hit targets over 500 kilometers away, may also be deployed to the region.

In his address, Flynn emphasized the rapid advancement of China’s military capabilities, which he said was endangering regional and global stability.

While the general avoided speculation about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, he outlined several factors believed to be influencing Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s strategic decisions. Those include the impact of economic sanctions, efforts to weaken US alliances in the region, assessing the readiness of China’s military for a potential invasion and the effectiveness of China’s information and influence operations.

Defense One notes that the US Army’s deployment of new missiles signifies a strategic shift in the Pacific, reflecting growing concerns over China’s military expansion and assertive behavior in the region. It also indicates a broader geopolitical strategy to maintain stability and deter potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.

In July 2023, Asia Times reported that the US Marine Corps (USMC) had unveiled its Long-Range Fires Launcher, an uncrewed 4×4 launch vehicle based on the Remotely Operated Ground Unit for Expeditionary-Fires (ROGUE-Fires) vehicle for the land-based Tomahawk cruise missile. The Long-Range Fires Launcher may address a mobility gap associated with the truck-towed OpFires and Typhon, which cannot fit in a C-130 cargo plane.

In December 2022, Asia Times reported on the US Army’s acquisition of the first Typhon land-based missile launcher, which is designed to fill a gap between the US Army’s PrSM and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) by firing Standard SM-6 or Tomahawk missiles between 500 and 1,800 kilometers.

Furthermore, Asia Times reported in July 2022 that the USMC is acquiring land-based Tomahawk missiles as part of its Long-Range Fires program, which aims to provide integrated ground-based anti-ship and land-attack weapon systems.

The acquisition is part of the USMC’s dispersed operations doctrine, which employs small, dispersed land and sea detachments to threaten adversary forces’ concentration. However, Asia Times has previously noted that US allies such as Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia and Japan may be reluctant to participate in America’s “missile wall” strategy.

Thailand’s political elites are trying to establish stronger ties with China and are famously reluctant to strategically peeve Beijing. The Philippines is vulnerable to a Chinese naval blockade cutting off US resupply and reinforcement from Guam and has minimal air and missile defense capabilities.

South Korea is susceptible to Chinese pressure, as it needs China’s markets and influence at the negotiating table with North Korea. Australia’s distance from China and reluctance to get involved in a US-China conflict over Taiwan may preclude it as a basing option for US land-based missiles.

That makes Japan the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles, as it lacks the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of other US partners, apart from a longstanding reluctance to host offensive weapons systems as part of its pacifist post-World War II policy.

But that policy is changing as Japan slowly builds an arsenal of long-range missiles for counterstrike capabilities to deter China and North Korea.

Despite accelerated efforts to establish such capabilities, Japan faces significant challenges such as limited long-range targeting capabilities, high production costs, aging technology and a poor record of storing munitions. Japan may thus seek to address these capability gaps with US-supplied land-based missiles while it gets its indigenous arsenal up to speed.

At the same time, China is building its conventional missile arsenal to counter perceived US containment. China Power notes that since 2000 the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed its missile forces from short-range, modestly accurate systems to the world’s most extensive and diverse array of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles.

China Power says that this arsenal includes intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) like the Dong Feng-26 (DF-26) with ranges of up to 4,000 kilometers, capable of striking crucial US military bases in Guam and ships at sea, and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) like the DF-21D, known as the “carrier killer” with a range of 1,550 kilometers.

The China Power report notes that China’s strategy has shifted toward using these missiles for deterrence and warfighting with a focus on precision strikes and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities along its maritime periphery. It mentions that these deployments include anti-ship missiles to prevent US military interventions and conventional missiles for targeting key enemy installations.

[ORAC]

H I Sutton - Covert Shores (http://www.hisutton.com/Chinese-Navy-Expand-SCS-Base.html)

China's Massive Yulin Naval Base In South China Sea Getting Even Bigger

China’s main naval base in the South China Sea continues to grow. Additional quays will almost double the size of the Sanya side of Yulin naval base. A new quay has been built on the western shore of Yulin Harbor, outside the historic inner harbor. This may indicate that the base will play an increasing role in the basing of uncrewed platforms.



Construction was started in 2022 and is already substantially complete. This first quay (technically a marginal wharf, built on pilings and parallel to the shore), on the west side of the harbor is 500 meters (1,640 feet) long. This is the one which, intuitively, may be the home base of uncrewed vessels in the future. China has been developing extra-large uncrewed underwater vehicles (https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/09/chinas-secret-extra-large-submarine-drone-program-revealed/)(XLUUVs). These have already been tested at Yulin. Until now they have simply used existing quays, with equipment camped out in temporary shelters.

China also has multiple uncrewed surface vessel (USV) projects, including large ones which will need berthing like ordinary ships. As these uncrewed platforms approach operational status they will need base facilities, so some construction was expected.

Opposite the first new quay, and adjacent to the massive dry docks which are themselves still new, is another. This totals around 1,020 meters (3,350 feet) in length. Its proximity to the dry dock suggests it may principally relate to that. On the other side of the dry dock is another area of land reclamation, possibly the start of yet another quay or pier.

To the east, in the next bay in an area known as Longpo naval base (part of the wider Yulin Naval base together with Sanya), two additional submarine piers have been built. These have been relatively well documented.

https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x612/image_ae37f1a7cdf6aa3a9fbddacc4184795add8ca426.png

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1080/image_6985ffd2b93d18eed8d7c0e30e03d16c71feeff9.jpeg

[GlobalNav]

Pacific shift: US to build a ‘missile wall’ against China

US general confirms plan to deploy long- and intermediate-range missiles to the Pacific in 2024.

Japan is the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles.

The US is closer to deploying long-range land-based missiles to deter a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan, a provocative move that could spark a destabilizing conventional missile arms race in the Pacific.

General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, stated at the Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, that the US will deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024, Defense One reported.

The deployment was made possible by the US’s withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 due to Russia’s alleged non-compliance. The Defense One report says the US Army’s Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), which can hit targets over 500 kilometers away, may also be deployed to the region.

In his address, Flynn emphasized the rapid advancement of China’s military capabilities, which he said was endangering regional and global stability.

While the general avoided speculation about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, he outlined several factors believed to be influencing Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s strategic decisions. Those include the impact of economic sanctions, efforts to weaken US alliances in the region, assessing the readiness of China’s military for a potential invasion and the effectiveness of China’s information and influence operations.

Defense One notes that the US Army’s deployment of new missiles signifies a strategic shift in the Pacific, reflecting growing concerns over China’s military expansion and assertive behavior in the region. It also indicates a broader geopolitical strategy to maintain stability and deter potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.

In July 2023, Asia Times reported that the US Marine Corps (USMC) had unveiled its Long-Range Fires Launcher, an uncrewed 4×4 launch vehicle based on the Remotely Operated Ground Unit for Expeditionary-Fires (ROGUE-Fires) vehicle for the land-based Tomahawk cruise missile. The Long-Range Fires Launcher may address a mobility gap associated with the truck-towed OpFires and Typhon, which cannot fit in a C-130 cargo plane.

In December 2022, Asia Times reported on the US Army’s acquisition of the first Typhon land-based missile launcher, which is designed to fill a gap between the US Army’s PrSM and the Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) by firing Standard SM-6 or Tomahawk missiles between 500 and 1,800 kilometers.

Furthermore, Asia Times reported in July 2022 that the USMC is acquiring land-based Tomahawk missiles as part of its Long-Range Fires program, which aims to provide integrated ground-based anti-ship and land-attack weapon systems.

The acquisition is part of the USMC’s dispersed operations doctrine, which employs small, dispersed land and sea detachments to threaten adversary forces’ concentration. However, Asia Times has previously noted that US allies such as Thailand, the Philippines, South Korea, Australia and Japan may be reluctant to participate in America’s “missile wall” strategy.

Thailand’s political elites are trying to establish stronger ties with China and are famously reluctant to strategically peeve Beijing. The Philippines is vulnerable to a Chinese naval blockade cutting off US resupply and reinforcement from Guam and has minimal air and missile defense capabilities.

South Korea is susceptible to Chinese pressure, as it needs China’s markets and influence at the negotiating table with North Korea. Australia’s distance from China and reluctance to get involved in a US-China conflict over Taiwan may preclude it as a basing option for US land-based missiles.

That makes Japan the most viable partner for hosting US land-based missiles, as it lacks the vulnerabilities and weaknesses of other US partners, apart from a longstanding reluctance to host offensive weapons systems as part of its pacifist post-World War II policy.

But that policy is changing as Japan slowly builds an arsenal of long-range missiles for counterstrike capabilities to deter China and North Korea.

Despite accelerated efforts to establish such capabilities, Japan faces significant challenges such as limited long-range targeting capabilities, high production costs, aging technology and a poor record of storing munitions. Japan may thus seek to address these capability gaps with US-supplied land-based missiles while it gets its indigenous arsenal up to speed.

At the same time, China is building its conventional missile arsenal to counter perceived US containment. China Power notes that since 2000 the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has transformed its missile forces from short-range, modestly accurate systems to the world’s most extensive and diverse array of ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles.

China Power says that this arsenal includes intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) like the Dong Feng-26 (DF-26) with ranges of up to 4,000 kilometers, capable of striking crucial US military bases in Guam and ships at sea, and medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) like the DF-21D, known as the “carrier killer” with a range of 1,550 kilometers.

The China Power report notes that China’s strategy has shifted toward using these missiles for deterrence and warfighting with a focus on precision strikes and anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) capabilities along its maritime periphery. It mentions that these deployments include anti-ship missiles to prevent US military interventions and conventional missiles for targeting key enemy installations.

Sounds a bit like the “impregnable” Maginot Line

[Lonewolf_50]

Sounds a bit like the “impregnable” Maginot Line Not hardly.
It is if anything, (1) an attempt at a deterrent, and (2) a distributed defense in depth ... but it relies on a proposed coalition that may not want to play as a cohesive whole.
Thailand is one of China's neighbors, for example, and whatever the US does or does not see as important, Thailand has to live in this neighborhood.
Go back to the Protests in the 70s and 80s over US medium range surface to surface missiles in Europe, and the political friction in that coalition.
That's the far better analogy.

[ORAC]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/11/27/german-air-force-plans-major-asia-pacific-tour-in-2024/

German air force plans major Asia-Pacific tour in 2024

COLOGNE, Germany — The German air force is planning an exercise tour through the Asia-Pacific region in 2024, accompanied by aircraft from France and Spain, the partners in the trinational Future Combat Air System, according to defense officials.

The weekslong deployment next summer, which also involves at least one German navy ship, follows Berlin’s logic that Germany must help stabilize an economically important region as China looks to grow its influence….

Next year’s deployment of aircraft will be “much, much bigger” than the air force’s initial foray (https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/feindef/2021/11/05/as-europe-looks-to-the-indo-pacific-so-does-the-luftwaffe/) to the Asia-Pacific region in 2022, service chief Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz said in an interview…

The upcoming trip will take the opposite direction, flying across the north Atlantic to Alaska for a first stop. According to Gerhartz, the idea is to show up in the region with a “European face (https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/paris-air-show/2023/06/11/european-forces-flex-their-indo-pacific-reach/),” consisting of the three FCAS partner nations and possibly also involving aircraft from the U.K. and Italy along the way.…

As of last month, the following contingent of European warplanes was set to partake in various drill elements during the summer: eight German and four Spanish Eurofighters, 12 German Tornados, six French Rafales, four German and four French-Spanish A400Ms, and four German and three French A330s, according to a Luftwaffe briefing slide.

Parts of the formation will aim to participate in the Hawaii-based Rim of the Pacific, or RIMPAC, exercise in late July, following a pit stop in Japan for a few days of what the German air service dubs “local flying” with Japanese crews there, the slide states. While in Hawaii, the German air force aims to rendezvous with a Germany Navy frigate, the plan goes.

Next on the calendar is exercise Pitch Black in Australia in late July, followed by a stop either in Indonesia or Malaysia before ending the deployment in India, a country defense and foreign policy leaders in Berlin have been eying as a particular anchor in the region.

In India, the European contingent will aim to partake in the country’s international Tarang Shakti exercise, if the timing works out, or perform “local flying” activities outside of that drill, according to the Luftwaffe.

[West Coast]

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/11/27/german-air-force-plans-major-asia-pacific-tour-in-2024/

German air force plans major Asia-Pacific tour in 2024

COLOGNE, Germany — The German air force is planning an exercise tour through the Asia-Pacific region in 2024, accompanied by aircraft from France and Spain, the partners in the trinational Future Combat Air System, according to defense officials.

The weekslong deployment next summer, which also involves at least one German navy ship, follows Berlin’s logic that Germany must help stabilize an economically important region as China looks to grow its influence….

Next year’s deployment of aircraft will be “much, much bigger” than the air force’s initial foray (https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/feindef/2021/11/05/as-europe-looks-to-the-indo-pacific-so-does-the-luftwaffe/) to the Asia-Pacific region in 2022, service chief Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz said in an interview…

The upcoming trip will take the opposite direction, flying across the north Atlantic to Alaska for a first stop. According to Gerhartz, the idea is to show up in the region with a “European face (https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/paris-air-show/2023/06/11/european-forces-flex-their-indo-pacific-reach/),” consisting of the three FCAS partner nations and possibly also involving aircraft from the U.K. and Italy along the way.…

As of last month, the following contingent of European warplanes was set to partake in various drill elements during the summer: eight German and four Spanish Eurofighters, 12 German Tornados, six French Rafales, four German and four French-Spanish A400Ms, and four German and three A330s, according to a Luftwaffe briefing slide.

Parts of the formation will aim to participate in the Hawaii-based Rim of the Pacific, or RIMPAC, exercise in late July, following a pit stop in Japan for a few days of what the German air service dubs “local flying” with Japanese crews there, the slide states. While in Hawaii, the German air force aims to rendezvous with a Germany Navy frigate, the plan goes.

Next on the calendar is exercise Pitch Black in Australia in late July, followed by a stop either in Indonesia or Malaysia before ending the deployment in India, a country defense and foreign policy leaders in Berlin have been eying as a particular anchor in the region.

In India, the European contingent will aim to partake in the country’s international Tarang Shakti exercise, if the timing works out, or perform “local flying” activities outside of that drill, according to the Luftwaffe.

Sounds like a cracking good time vacation.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1729152040755208674?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China’s new stealth sub built for a Taiwan blockade

China’s Type-039C submarine features new angled sail design to reduce active sonar detectability in Taiwan Strait’s shallow waters.

China’s Type 039C Yuan-class submarine appears to mark a new era in underwater stealth technology, posing significant challenges to traditional detection tools as speculation mounts about a possible submarine-led Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Naval News reported that the Type 039C Yuan-class submarine features an angled sail design to reduce its active sonar detectability, making it the world’s first known submarine with the feature… China’s mass production capability has made the Yuan-class the most numerous air-independent propulsion (AIP) submarine worldwide.

The use of angled stealth shaping is gaining momentum worldwide, with the upcoming Swedish A-26-class and Germany’s Type-212CD-class incorporating similar features, with the latter even encasing the whole submarine in an angled outer hull. The trend is being driven largely by the mainstream shift from using passive to active sonar, where passive detection is less effective as submarines are increasingly built to be quieter.

Naval News says that active sonar, which involves emitting a sonar signal and measuring the rebounds, is gaining in use while passive sonar, which listens for sounds emitted by a submarine, is proving less effective. The report notes that the stealth features on the Type 039C Yuan-class are designed to counter medium frequency sonars and complicate enemy classification of the vessel.

China’s Type 039C appears to represent the latest evolution of its conventional submarine designs and may already have been deployed in military exercises simulating a Taiwan blockade. China’s conventional submarine program has Taiwan in focus, as an invasion would not require nuclear-powered submarines with unlimited range in the nearby theater.

Asia Times reported in August 2022 that the Type 039C, built in Wuhan and fitted out in Shanghai, marks an evolution in conventional submarine technology using 60% newly researched and improved equipment and featuring significant system reconfiguration.

While the Type 039C features AIP technology, the specific propulsion system is unknown. Some have speculated it may employ lithium batteries, which would make strategic sense considering China manufactures three-quarters of the world’s electric vehicle (EV) batteries.

Submarines can significantly enhance their acceleration for high-speed operations and extend their underwater endurance by over two-fold with lithium-ion batteries.

The People’s Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) has been trying to replace traditional lead-acid batteries with lithium-ion ones for over a decade but apparently hesitated due to thermal runaway and fire risks. However, recent advancements such as using low-cost, readily available iron and phosphate can replace the usual but dangerous nickel and cobalt combination while hard carbon and ceramic coating can improve the safety of battery packaging.

The Type 039C submarine may have similar weaponry to its Yuan-class predecessors, including wire-guided torpedoes, naval mines and anti-ship missiles. It may also be capable of launching land-attack cruise missiles from its torpedo tubes.

China may already have deployed the Type 039C in August 2022 military exercises off Taiwan, simulating a submarine blockade against the self-governing island. The Type 039C and other submarines would play a vital role in a future blockade of Taiwan, as the island is believed only to have a 146-day oil stockpile and 11-day natural gas supply.

In a Taiwan blockade, conventional submarines may minimize the risk to PLA-N surface ships and aircraft, and target ships going in and out of Taiwan’s ports. A blockade may force Taiwan to capitulate without sending in an amphibious invasion force and make hiding battle losses and mission failures easier, avoiding a possible domestic backlash in China.

The US and its allies may use a convoy system and engage in anti-submarine warfare (ASW) operations east of Taiwan against a Chinese invasion. In this scenario, China wins if it sinks enough ships until the US and its allies can no longer guarantee safe access to Taiwan’s ports, and the US and its allies win if they can track down and sink a significant number of China’s submarines.

In a November 2021 article for The Warzone, Kevin Noonan notes that the US Navy may not be prepared to face the threat of China’s high-tech conventional submarines. Noonan says that since the end of the Cold War, the US Navy has yet to adapt its ASW capabilities for shallow water operations, potentially providing China an advantage in the Taiwan Strait, which is only 60 meters deep on average.

Furthermore, he says that small conventional submarines generate smaller acoustic signals, making them harder to detect, and that Chinese submarines will be essentially operating in their home waters in the Taiwan Strait, giving them a home-field advantage. He also mentions China’s submariners know how to conceal their submarines in the background noise of civilian commercial shipping, complicating their detection and targeting.

Given those challenges, the Hudson Institute notes in a July 2023 report that the US needs to change its approach to undersea warfare to emphasize uncrewed vessels. That, the report says, would enable the US and allied forces to exploit active sonar and track increasingly stealthy Chinese submarines without risking counter-detection.

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1152/image_095eba5f335c622a81727c88541036345f73a7a2.png

[Buster Hyman]

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1152/image_095eba5f335c622a81727c88541036345f73a7a2.png
What Sub? :confused:

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1729510804758688126?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China's PLA Navy new corvette, this is the follow on to the type 56 corvette.

Bigger, stealthy, integrated mast and a new multipurpose VLS system.

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/603x340/image_9ad6f5c477d4e7e2bf3c77efb7929f42f9700cc7.png

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/602x400/image_7d6212869634e7cf14b03bfc244feafba15ab8a2.png
​​​​​​​

[tdracer]

Chinas most modern naval vessel, a landing ship is on fire... it looks bad.



https://twitter.com/AlexandruC4/status/1727051376210104644

Apparently they were having a feast for the ship crews moral and lit a flaming duck dish with high proof alcohol and up went the ship...Flaming duck to dead duck in one.

Doesn't say much for their fire suppression and damage control capabilities...

[Asturias56]

has that fire been confirmed?

[Lonewolf_50]

Bigger, stealthy, integrated mast and a new multipurpose VLS system. Do you also say PIN number? :}
VLS means Vertical Launch System

Thanks for the post, nice pictures, interesting looking ship.

[rattman]

has that fire been confirmed?

Confirmed to be fake. It was pre acceptance test, apparently happens to most new ships in china. You can find the little pinks talking about it and how they are purposely going to troll the west with it. A couple of hours before, they knew it was going to happen and even got notification of when and where it was going to happen so they could be there to film it

[ORAC]

An addendum to the planned German/Spanish/French deployment to the Pacific next year…..

https://x.com/gabriel64869839/status/1729639702511104491?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


Italian air force's chief of staff is on record saying a large number of Italian jets ("almost 25 jets" were the words at Mitchell institute) are going to Australia next year.

​​​​​​​CAVOUR aircraft carrier plus Typhoons/F-35s. One mixed group of jets is aiming to fly one leg non-stop.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1731995886056784338?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


#China Grabs Neighbor's Land While Negotiating Border Deal with #Bhutan

New satellite imagery has revealed Chinese expansion into territory previously controlled by Bhutan even as China continues to negotiate a border agreement with its neighbor to the south.

China's strategy of encouraging settlement in disputed areas appears to supersede the ongoing boundary talks, suggesting an attempt to alter realities on the ground in its favor, researchers say.

It is a move that could have long-lasting implications for the small kingdom of less than 1 million people, sandwiched between China and India, with Bhutan's leaders finding it difficult to address China's alleged encroachment on villages that are already sparsely populated by their own Bhutanese people.

Beijing's land grab in the north of the Himalayan country was taking place in the form of an "unsanctioned program of settlement construction across the contested border with Bhutan," open-source analysts John Pollock and Damien Symon wrote in The World Today, a magazine published by the Chatham House think tank in London.

Their December 1 included satellite imagery from September that showed new outposts in Bhutan's remote Jakarlung Valley, part of the Beyul Khenpajong region.

Incumbent Prime Minister Lotay Tshering of Bhutan continued negotiations with China during his time in office. Tshering's decision suggests the kingdom has little choice but to strike a deal with its powerful neighbor in order to stop the encroachment.

The Chinese government also is pushing Bhutan to establish direct diplomatic relations, adding to the complexity of the geopolitical situation. To do so would require a significant shift in Bhutan's longstanding policy of not maintaining formal diplomatic ties with any permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

The kingdom, for instance, has traditionally allowed India to act as its mediator with the United States in the absence of relations between Thimphu and Washington.

Tshering hinted in a recent interview with an Indian newspaper that negotiations with Beijing to settle their disputed border could end in an exchange of territory. Observers believed the most likely concessions to be Jakarlung and the neighboring Menchuma Valley that China has already seized.

In Menchuma, east of Jakarlung, Chinese troops were said to be present in areas previously under Bhutan's control, with local Bhutanese denied access. "Troops belonging to China's People's Liberation Army are also believed to be stationed in or near the settlements in both areas," Pollock and Symon said.

Robert Barnett, a Tibet expert at SOAS, University of London, who was quoted in their report, noted "two major waves" of Chinese settlement construction in Jakarlung. "We know that the Chinese authorities are energetically recruiting Tibetans to move to these new locations and putting a lot of money into major construction efforts there," he told The World Today.

These activities are continuing against the backdrop of Bhutan's fourth fully democratic elections in 15 years. The kingdom began voting last week in national elections contested by two political parties.

Tshering, in his October interview with Indian daily The Hindu, said it was only a matter of time before Thimphu and Beijing established relations, but left room for a non-traditional arrangement. "Theoretically, how can Bhutan not have any bilateral relations with China? The question is when and in what manner," he said.

Additionally, India's role as Bhutan's security guarantor, established through treaties in 1949 and updated in 2007, adds another layer to the region's political dynamic. New Delhi was keeping a close watch on developments between Beijing and Thimphu. Any land swap deal would directly impact India's own borders with China.

Bhutan has indicated that Thimphu is informing New Delhi about the progress of talks with Beijing, Newsweek previously reported.

https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x980/image_a1a237e43a9e0a82d5c6a2dc02f4401572af62b1.png

[Asturias56]

Bhutan isn't dealing directly with China - so who is fronting their efforts? Presumably India

That's not a great place to be in a negotiation. The Chinese will, as they indicate, probably agree to a land swap or something similar once they deal directly with Bhutan - they just want to keep the Indians out of it
https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/china-bhutan-border-talks/
Singapore think tank view which seems pretty unbiased.

"China and Bhutan share about 477 kilometres of border. China claims around 764 square kilometres of land in Bhutan. The first round of boundary talks between Bhutan and China took place in 1984. In 1997, Bhutan’s foreign minister informed the Bhutanese National Assembly that during the 11th round of border talks with the Chinese delegation, the Bhutanese delegates put forward their country’s claims to Doklam, Sinchulung, Dramana and Shakhatoe in the western sector and stressed their importance for the people of Ha valley (https://www.nab.gov.bt/assets/uploads/docs/resolution/2014/75th_Session.pdf). They also informed the Chinese delegates that Tibetan herdsmen had been intruding into Majathang and Jakarlung in the central sector. At that time, China pointed to a package proposal made during the seventh round of talks in 1990 where they “had offered to give Bhutan the Pasamlung and Jakarlung valley, with an area of 495 square kilometres, in the central sector of the boundary if Bhutan agreed to concede in the western sector (https://www.nab.gov.bt/assets/uploads/docs/resolution/2014/75th_Session.pdf)”.

In 2001, China came close to sealing the deal, but it failed. It is believed that India’s concerns made Bhutan refuse any compromise with China (https://thewire.in/external-affairs/china-bhutan-india-territory). In 2010, Bhutan and China agreed to hold a joint field survey of the disputed regions. The survey (https://www.trtworld.com/magazine/what-does-the-bhutan-china-border-agreement-mean-for-india-50782) was completed in 2015. In 2017, despite ongoing talks, China started road construction near Doklam, leading to a military stand-off between the Indian Army and the People’s Liberation Army for 73 days. During that time, Bhutan accused China of unilaterally attempting to change the status quo in the Doklam region."

"Although Bhutan is engaged in boundary talks with China, it is hard to envisage that Thimphu will agree on anything that concerns New Delhi."

[Lonewolf_50]

Asturias, that's an interesting issue, thanks for bringing that up. Look at the time horizons on the negotiations. Walking us back to the 80's as they began to try and make a deal that both parties could live with.

In another look back toward the 1980's, we see that Harry Truman was right: there isn't a lot of news, but there is a lot of history that we don't know.
As that applies to the South China sea.
Navy to Arm Submarines With Anti-Ship Missiles to Counter China (http://links.ei1.email.military.com/ctt?m=10320256&r=Mjk3NzYzNzQxMTcS1&b=0&j=MTg4MDEwNTU4OAS2&k=NEWSLETTER&kx=1&kt=12&kd=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.military.com%2Fdaily-news%2F2023%2F12%2F05%2Fus-deploy-anti-ship-missiles-subs-2024-counter-china.html%3FESRC%3Dnavy_231205.nl%26utm_medium%3Demail%26ut m_source%3Dnavy%26utm_campaign%3D20231205)
The U.S. Navy plans to begin arming submarines next year with ship-targeting versions of the widely used Tomahawk missile, part of Washington’s push to ramp up military capabilities to challenge Chinese maritime forces, particularly around Taiwan. When Tomahawk was being introduced (back in the 80's when it began to come out of test and development) it was a SSM with range substantially longer than Harpoon. (200+ nm versus Harpoon's 80+) It was an Anti Ship Missile. The land attack variant had more work to do since the terrain following features required some serious mapping data ... so we are right back where we began with Tomahawk, it seems. :cool:
RGM/UGM-109B Tomahawk Anti-Ship Missile (TASM) – Anti-ship (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-ship_missile) variant with active radar homing (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_radar_homing); withdrawn from service in 1994 and converted to Block IV version. I hope somebody kept the blueprints. Heh, or maybe just released a new revision ...
Tomahawk Block V was introduced in 2021 with improvements to navigation and in-flight targeting. Block Va, the Maritime Strike Tomahawk (MST) which allows the missile to engage a moving target at sea... Block IV Tomahawks will be converted to Block V standard...

[Asturias56]

It's a minor interest of mine - such a fascinating mixture of history, geography and politics.

The Himalayan borders of the Sub Continent and China & Tibet are a VERY long running issue

The "forward" policy espoused at times by the bigger powers - Russia, China, UK, Persia/Iran etc had people claiming borders miles (and more important weeks or years ) ahead of any administration since the early 19th Century. It wasn't helped by the lack of maps - never mind accurate maps. And these places are really really remote - remember the Chinese built and operated their road across the Aksai Chin for several years before the Indians found out - and that was via an magazine article in a Chinese magazine.

The smaller players - Sikh's, Nepalese, Tibet etc - have always been involved in the claim game as well of course and are not beyond meddling either.

One thing for sure - it's strategically worthless to everyone. If Afghanistan was difficult just look at the issues in supplying and operating in the high country.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1733434601530651065?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China Coast Guard blasted water cannon toward Philippine vessels trying to do a Christmas resupply mission near Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal this morning (Dec. 9).

Water cannons were used at least 8 times, the most aggressive Chinese actions yet.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1734225545494454657?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China 'not fearful' of war with Japan over Senkakus, senior military officer says

A senior Chinese military officer said in a recent interview with Kyodo News that Beijing did not want a war over the Tokyo-controlled Senkaku Islands claimed by China in the East China Sea, but it was also "not fearful" of armed conflict either.

Lt. Gen. He Lei, a former vice president of the People's Liberation Army Academy of Military Sciences, also indicated the possibility that China would target the Senkakus, which it calls Diaoyu, as well if it attempted to capture Taiwan, a self-ruled democratic island, through the use of force.

The rare reference by a senior Chinese military officer to a possible war over the Senkaku Islands suggests Beijing's determination to gain control of the territory that Japan brought under state control in 2012.

The academy makes policy proposals to the PLA. He criticized Tokyo for purchasing the islands from Japanese private hands, stressing that Beijing would "firmly protect its national territory, sovereignty and maritime interests" if the Japanese side continues its "provocations."

Tokyo should not underestimate the Chinese military's "strong will, resolve and power" to safeguard national sovereignty, safety and territorial integrity, he warned…..

Beijing claims the Senkakus are part of its Taiwan province. Asked whether China could launch an offensive to simultaneously target the seizure of Taiwan and the islets, He said such a scenario was in line with the mainland's "principle."…..

China frequently sends its vessels into Japanese waters around the uninhabited islets.

On the weekend, the two countries accused each other of maritime incursions after a confrontation between their coast guards in waters around the disputed islands.

China's Coast Guard said on Sunday that a Japanese fishing boat and several patrol vessels intruded the previous day into waters around the Senkakus. China's Coast Guard said in a statement it had taken necessary measures in accordance with the law to warn away the Japanese vessels.

Japan's Coast Guard said on Saturday that two Chinese maritime patrol boats left Japan's territorial waters around the islands after receiving warnings. It said its patrol vessels were protecting a Japanese fishing boat that had been approached by the Chinese ships.

Similar incidents occurred in November and October.….

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x1015/image_24fd1a827396d0648a2822d949ec7fb4ca884129.png

[West Coast]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/taiwanese-pilot-planned-ch-47-defection-to-china-reports?fbclid=IwAR2eymb18G_wqFkhH1NTxcbqs2fMrX08gYB4eN6A_SD l-c4OfgEjjrl_Ocg

A defection and a ton of money.

[NutLoose]

Taiwanese pilot, allegedly planning to defect to the People's Republic of China (PRC), was reportedly offered $15 million USD to deliver a CH-47 Chinook (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36665/ch-47-chinook-with-far-more-powerful-t408-engines-has-flown-for-the-first-time) helicopter to the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). As part of the defection scheme, the individual was supposedly set to land the Chinook on a PLAN vessel in the Taiwan Strait. Along with the money offered, the pilot was also apparently assured by Chinese officials that his family would be given safe passage out of Taiwan should a potential conflict between the country and China erupt.

The pilot in question has been named as Lt. Col. Hsieh of the Republic of China Army (ROCA) as part of an indictment (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3244696/taiwanese-pilot-planned-defect-mainland-china-us-made-army-helicopter-court-told?campaign=3244696&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article) released by Taiwan's High Court Prosecutors Office today. Hsieh was arrested back in August following a tip-off, a Taiwan court heard today, which foiled the defection scheme. According to reports (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/12/11/2003810478), Hsieh — as well as a wider spy ring within the Taiwanese military connected to his defection — has been on the radar of Taiwanese law enforcement since the spring. Prior to today's revelations, lawmakers previously indicted (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3244696/taiwanese-pilot-planned-defect-mainland-china-us-made-army-helicopter-court-told?campaign=3244696&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article) a group of active and retired Taiwanese officers on November 27 on the grounds of spying for Beijing.

As per reporting (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3244696/taiwanese-pilot-planned-defect-mainland-china-us-made-army-helicopter-court-told?campaign=3244696&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article) by the South China Morning Post, Hsieh was originally approached in June by alleged Chinese intelligence officials via a retired ROCA officer. As part of his defection scheme, Hsieh was set to fly a CH-47SD Chinook helicopter — of which the ROCA currently has roughly eight of (https://www.flightglobal.com/download?ac=98602) — onto a People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) vessel in the Taiwan Straight. Which PLAN vessel this pertains to remains unclear, although multiple outlets (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3244696/taiwanese-pilot-planned-defect-mainland-china-us-made-army-helicopter-court-told) suggest it was to have been (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/12/11/2003810478) one of China's two existing aircraft carriers; either Type 001 Liaoning (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinese-carrier-group-found-off-taiwan-in-satellite-imagery) or Type 002 Shandong (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinese-carrier-recently-sailed-near-guam-enters-south-china-sea).

Hsieh suggested that the PLAN perform naval drills close to the port city of Kaohsiung in southern Taiwan in advance of his defection, prosecutors contend. This was suggested in order to prevent the lieutenant colonel from having to cross the sensitive "median line" which bisects the Taiwan Strait and serves as a de facto boundary between mainland China and Taiwan.

Circumventing the median line would have minimized the chances of the Chinook being intercepted by Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) fighters on its way to the PLAN vessel, prosecutors argue.

"According to the instruction from the [mainland] agents, Lieutenant Colonel Hsieh was asked to fly the helicopter at low altitude along the coastline to the Chinese Communist carrier which would be staging drills close to the waters 24 nautical miles off [Taiwan]," the indictment reads, as per (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3244696/taiwanese-pilot-planned-defect-mainland-china-us-made-army-helicopter-court-told?campaign=3244696&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article) the South China Morning Post.

It isn't clear what would have happened to the other crew on the Chinook as the type always flies with a second pilot and crew chiefs.

However, the revelation that Hsieh discussed with PRC officials plans for his family to emigrate to Thailand underscores fears of a possible Chinese intervention in Taiwan in the minds of Taiwanese military officials. The promise of hefty payments and lavish gifts alone may, on its own, provide less weight in enticing defectors to China going forward given said concerns.

As The War Zone has highlighted repeatedly (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/this-is-how-taiwans-military-would-go-to-war-with-china), both Taiwanese (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/taiwan-extends-mandatory-military-service-due-to-chinese-invasion-threat) and U.S. officials (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/usaf-general-warns-of-war-with-china-over-taiwan-in-2025) have pointed to this likelihood (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/usaf-general-warns-of-war-with-china-over-taiwan-in-2025) of a Chinese intervention in Taiwan for some time. Senior U.S. military officials have noted the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) could be in a position to launch an invasion against Taiwan by 2027, or potentially sooner (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/usaf-general-warns-of-war-with-china-over-taiwan-in-2025). There is has been a major uptick in escalatory aerial (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/new-chinese-drills-spark-fears-of-prolonged-squeeze-on-taiwan) and naval drills (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/china-simulates-attacking-taiwan-from-all-sides-with-help-from-its-carrier-force) squared against Taiwan by China's military. These have significantly increased in the past 18 months, particularly following former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/china-plans-to-surround-taiwan-with-military-drills-after-pelosi-lands) in August last year.While legal proceedings connected to Hsieh's alleged espionage activities have only just begun, the new revelations no doubt point to a broader and potentially troubling range of factors motivating Taiwanese military officials to defect to China.

Why China would want this helicopter isn't perfectly clear, but the PLA does not fly a tandem rotor type at this time, but they are surely looking to develop improved heavy-lift designs. The CH-47SD model is something of a precursor to more recent models of the Chinook, which would have made it even more enticing for reverse engineering purposes. The avionics onboard as well as the crew's potential intelligence value could have also been attractive.

In terms of financial compensation, Hsieh was initially offered $6,355 USD per month, equivalent to some $200,000 in New Taiwan Dollars (NTD), to defect and deliver the helicopter. However, he declined the offer, owing to the significant risks involved. A counter-offer of $15 million USD, which reports suggest came to half (https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2023/12/11/2003810478) the overall cost of the helicopter, along with a $1 million USD "deposit" was subsequently agreed between Hsieh and Chinese officials, according to the indictment.

From the start, it was agreed by the mainland side that Hsieh’s wife and children would be helped to emigrate to Thailand — specifically via sourcing (https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/5057253) Thai visas — should a potential invasion of Taiwan by China occur in the near future. According to Taiwanese prosecutors, Hsieh conducted a teleconference with Chinese operatives in July to discuss the details of the defection, as well as contingency plans for his family’s emigration to Thailand.

Of course, China has a track record (https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/taiwan-china-espionage/) of courting Taiwanese military officers to defect, prompting efforts (https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-boosts-counter-espionage-effort-after-suspected-china-infiltration-2023-08-02/&sa=D&source=docs&ust=1702333867629806&usg=AOvVaw04DE-Lf6sR1C9puovu8I4d) by Taiwan's law makers to clamp down on its neighbors' ability to steal sensitive information. Speaking to lawmakers today, Taiwan’s Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said of (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3244696/taiwanese-pilot-planned-defect-mainland-china-us-made-army-helicopter-court-told?campaign=3244696&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article) Hsieh's indictment, "I feel pained too, to have discovered a case like this and those allegedly involved must be dealt with according to the law."

A separate investigation has been completed by Taiwan’s military and security agencies into Hsieh's case, the country’s Ministry of Defense noted (https://www.scmp.com/news/china/politics/article/3244696/taiwanese-pilot-planned-defect-mainland-china-us-made-army-helicopter-court-told?campaign=3244696&module=perpetual_scroll_0&pgtype=article).

However, the revelation that Hsieh discussed with PRC officials plans for his family to emigrate to Thailand underscores fears of a possible Chinese intervention in Taiwan in the minds of Taiwanese military officials. The promise of hefty payments and lavish gifts alone may, on its own, provide less weight in enticing defectors to China going forward given said concerns.

As The War Zone has highlighted repeatedly (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/this-is-how-taiwans-military-would-go-to-war-with-china), both Taiwanese (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/taiwan-extends-mandatory-military-service-due-to-chinese-invasion-threat) and U.S. officials (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/usaf-general-warns-of-war-with-china-over-taiwan-in-2025) have pointed to this likelihood (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/usaf-general-warns-of-war-with-china-over-taiwan-in-2025) of a Chinese intervention in Taiwan for some time. Senior U.S. military officials have noted the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) could be in a position to launch an invasion against Taiwan by 2027, or potentially sooner (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/usaf-general-warns-of-war-with-china-over-taiwan-in-2025). There is has been a major uptick in escalatory aerial (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/new-chinese-drills-spark-fears-of-prolonged-squeeze-on-taiwan) and naval drills (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/china-simulates-attacking-taiwan-from-all-sides-with-help-from-its-carrier-force) squared against Taiwan by China's military. These have significantly increased in the past 18 months, particularly following former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan (https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/china-plans-to-surround-taiwan-with-military-drills-after-pelosi-lands) in August last year.While legal proceedings connected to Hsieh's alleged espionage activities have only just begun, the new revelations no doubt point to a broader and potentially troubling range of factors motivating Taiwanese military officials to defect to China.




https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/taiwanese-pilot-planned-ch-47-defection-to-china-reports

[Lonewolf_50]

https://www.pprune.org/rotorheads/656315-china-offers-taiwan-officer-15-million-chinook.html

There's a thread started on that in rotorheads.

[havoc]

Chinese vessels at Ayungin seen in ‘invasion’ mode (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/chinese-vessels-at-ayungin-seen-in-invasion-mode/ar-AA1lvU9m?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=HCTS&cvid=1462f821923449d9b74dc7ae4beeb64d&ei=59)

[ORAC]

https://x.com/indopac_info/status/1736732761388716365?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


US to reclaim WWII Tinian airfield in Pacific, clearing jungle by summer

The U.S. military will make "significant progress" toward reclaiming a World War II-era airfield on the Pacific island of Tinian in the upcoming months, an air force general said, part of an initiative to disperse aircraft across the Indo-Pacific region as China's missile threat continues to grow.

The U.S. Air Force is stepping up construction at the Tinian North airfield, once used by the largest B-29 bomber fleet during World War II, and at the Tinian International airfield, Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach, commander of the Pacific Air Forces, said in an interview on Wednesday.

Air force general hopes for more trilateral exercises with Japan, South Korea. "If you pay attention in the next few months, you will see significant progress, especially at Tinian North," Wilsbach said.

The airfield "has extensive pavement underneath the overgrown jungle. We'll be clearing that jungle out between now and summertime," Wilsbach said, adding that it will be "an extensive" facility once construction is complete. Wilsbach declined to comment on when the airstrip will be operational.

Tinian lies about 200 kilometers north of Guam and is part of the Northern Mariana Islands. Revitalizing the outpost is meant to advance the air force's operational strategy known as Agile Combat Employment. It calls for moving aircraft to as many locations as possible in the western Pacific to avoid an enemy's missile strikes in a crisis, a major shift from post-Cold War strategy.

"You create a targeting problem, and you may actually take some hits, but you still have preponderance of your forces still creating effect," Wilsbach said of the distributed force posture in a contingency.

The U.S. military secured access this year to locations in the Philippines and Papua New Genia while Washington and Canberra agreed to upgrade infrastructure at two air bases in northern Australia. To advance a free and open Indo-Pacific, the U.S. will build on the momentum of trilateral defense cooperation with Japan and South Korea, Wilsbach said.

"It wasn't too long ago where trilateral operations were out of the question," the general said. "Even this year, we have done a few of them already and... some of them that you probably haven't heard of that are ongoing," he continued, indicating the three countries have worked more closely than publicly known.

In October, the U.S., Japan and South Korea conducted their first trilateral air drills, marking a major milestone after the leaders of the countries vowed to enhance the defense relations at a Camp David summit in August.

While declining to provide details of upcoming trilateral exercise plans, Wilsbach stressed that "you can at least expect this to go on at the same level." "I don't know if I would say increase, but it would be my desire to see it increase," he added.

Wilsbach also noted that trilateral cooperation with Japan and Australia is "really positive." During the Pacific Air Chiefs Symposium in Hawaii last month, Wilsbach met with his Japanese and Australian counterparts to discuss future cooperation "in a number of ways," the general said.

Washington and Canberra agreed to increase trilateral joint exercises with Tokyo in northern Australia at the bilateral AUSMIN ministerial dialogue in July. To that end, the three countries are working out a detailed action plan on military activities including combined F-35 training.

https://ahf.nuclearmuseum.org/ahf/location/tinian-island/
​​​​​​​

[Big Pistons Forever]

I routinely hear pundits opine in an admiring tone that China plays the long game, unlike the West. However China’s actions have only resulted in an increasing unified block of regional powers working together to thwart China’s ambitions.

Like Russia their foreign policy seems to be a massive own goal. Instead of cowing the regional powers they have only strengthened them.

[rattman]

Northrop are planning to triple production capacity of the radar for the E-7 from the capability of 2 per year to 4. With the capability to surge up to 6 if future anticipated orders comes. Seems like they are talking with a few more indopacific countries. Not sure who it would be, maybe japan and singapre and few extra for south korea

https://www.defenseone.com/business/2023/12/northrop-gears-triple-production-e-7-radar/392876/

[ORAC]

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/japan-destined-have-nuclear-weapons-207811

Japan Is Destined to Have Nuclear Weapons - Barry Gewen*

“The Japanese have] a pretty clear view of where they’re going; they’re heading towards becoming a nuclear power in five years.” - Henry Kissinger (https://www.economist.com/kissinger-highlights), April 2023.


* https://nationalinterest.org/feature/tribute-barry-gewen-203466

[Lonewolf_50]

Works for me. If Pakistan have some, I am happy for the Japanese to join the club.

[ORAC]

https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/british-carrier-strike-group-to-visit-japan/

British Carrier Strike Group to visit Japan

The UK’s Carrier Strike Group will visit Japan as part of the flagship 2025 Indo-Pacific deployment, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has announced today.

The group, comprised of an aircraft carrier, her escorts and her aircraft, will work alongside the Japanese Self Defence Forces and other partners to help defend peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

On a visit to Japan’s Yokosuka Naval Base, the Defence Secretary highlighted the importance of the UK exercising the best capabilities our Armed Forces have to offer alongside partners in the region. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said:

“The strength and global reach of the UK’s Armed Forces should never be underestimated. The Carrier Strike Group 2025 is another tangible example of our ability to deploy globally. Such deployments send a strong deterrence message while presenting important opportunities for engagements with key partners. Japan is our closest security partner in Asia and the task group’s visit to the country will only serve to strengthen our military and diplomatic ties.”…

[Asturias56]

Well over a years notice..................... good to see people are thinking ahead............ all the way to the next Tory leadership contest

[Lonewolf_50]

Well over a years notice..................... good to see people are thinking ahead............ all the way to the next Tory leadership contest
Sorry, I am from the other side of the pond, what in the fkuc has that to do with the topic of this thread?
You Brits have a talent for being obtuse, I'll give you that.

[Asturias56]

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps - a man who removed Boris Johnson from a picture of them together after Johnson quit.................... he'd do or say literally ANYTHING anything to creep another notch up the greasy pole. He's positioning himself for the post Sunac world

[Video Mixdown]

Defence Secretary Grant Shapps - a man who removed Boris Johnson from a picture of them together after Johnson quit.................... he'd do or say literally ANYTHING anything to creep another notch up the greasy pole. He's positioning himself for the post Sunac world
Your political posts belong on JB, not here.

[Asturias56]

Sorry I was asked about the post by people who are not resident in the UK nor up to speed with UK politics - making a statement about a possible deployment over a year ahead of time is clearly a political statement. And Shapps is a total politician.

[ORAC]

https://x.com/wentisung/status/1740694418213175733?s=61&t=rmEeUn68HhlFHGKbTPQr_A


China has just appointed a new Defense Minister at Friday 6:40pm -- Navy Admiral Dong Jun, 62.

Quick thoughts on possible significance for China's strategic focus, personnel tradition, and military's anti-corruption reshuffling. /1…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1740694418213175733.html
​​​​​​​

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1213x702/image_b612841578852b3536ae7f751ab686fcde46ffe0.png

[Big Pistons Forever]

Adm Jun's resume is pretty thin with very little operational experience. Its obvious Xi just wants a yes man mouth piece to be the PLA interlocutor with the world and who will do what they are told as he tightens his grip on the PLA. The good news for the West is opponents that have senior leadership chosen for political fealty over military competence don't do well when the shooting starts

[Asturias56]

The Reuters definition of the role of the Defence Minister is very interesting - suggest it's a liaison job rather than an executive one

I'm sure President Xi and the Party have direct control at many levels

[Lonewolf_50]

Adm Jun's resume is pretty thin with very little operational experience. Its obvious Xi just wants a yes man mouth piece to be the PLA interlocutor with the world and who will do what they are told as he tightens his grip on the PLA. The good news for the West is opponents that have senior leadership chosen for political fealty over military competence don't do well when the shooting starts Don't the Chinese use 'the surname first' convention? That would be Admiral Dong. (Or, I am forgetting how that works?).
with very little operational experience. At the flag officer level, isn't it all a bit political? (It is here in the US).
when the shooting starts Hoping that isn't any time soon, and that the heads of state work diligently toward preventing that.

[Big Pistons Forever]

My personal experience is that US General Officer and Flag Officer ranks are populated with officers with significant operational experience. For example this is an abridged version of the bio of current CNO, Adm Franchetti

She commanded USS Ross (DDG 71) and DESRON-21, embarked on USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74). She also served as commander of Pacific Partnership 2010, embarked on USNS Mercy (T-AH 19).Her flag assignments include commander, U.S. Naval Forces Korea; commander, Carrier Strike Group 9; commander, Carrier Strike Group 15; commander, U.S. 6th Fleet/commander, Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO/deputy commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and U.S. Naval Forces Africa; These are just the pure operational assignments, she also had a wide range of consequential staff appointments.

I would suggest that this profile is typical of USN Flag Officers and General Officers of the other services. It should also be pointed out that the USN has approximately 3000 Naval Captains but only about 60 Rear Admirals Lower (1*) and Upper (2*) half. The selection process for a prospective Flag Officer is pretty rigorous. I would suggest that the Bio's for any of the PLA Flag and General Officers are considerably less impressive and will emphasize being a good party member not being a good operational commander.

[Lonewolf_50]

My personal experience is that US General Officer and Flag Officer ranks are populated with officers with significant operational experience. For example this is an abridged version of the bio of current CNO, Adm Franchetti

She commanded USS Ross (DDG 71) and DESRON-21, embarked on USS John C. Stennis (CVN 74). She also served as commander of Pacific Partnership 2010, embarked on USNS Mercy (T-AH 19).Her flag assignments include commander, U.S. Naval Forces Korea; commander, Carrier Strike Group 9; commander, Carrier Strike Group 15; commander, U.S. 6th Fleet/commander, Naval Striking and Support Forces NATO/deputy commander, U.S. Naval Forces Europe and U.S. Naval Forces Africa; These are just the pure operational assignments, she also had a wide range of consequential staff appointments.

I would suggest that this profile is typical of USN Flag Officers and General Officers of the other services. It should also be pointed out that the USN has approximately 3000 Naval Captains but only about 60 Rear Admirals Lower (1*) and Upper (2*) half. The selection process for a prospective Flag Officer is pretty rigorous. I would suggest that the Bio's for any of the PLA Flag and General Officers are considerably less impressive and will emphasize being a good party member not being a good operational commander. Points taken.

[ORAC]

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2023/12/eb55266c4a9f-china-plans-to-keep-ships-near-senkakus-365-days-in-2024.html

China plans to keep ships near Senkakus 365 days in 2024

BEIJING: China plans to keep its ships near the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea for 365 days in 2024 as leader Xi Jinping has called for bolstering Beijing's sovereignty claim over the islets, sources familiar with the matter said Saturday.

During a rare visit by Xi on Nov. 29 to the command office for the East China Sea area of the China Coast Guard in Shanghai, the president pointed out the need for Beijing to "constantly strengthen" its efforts to safeguard the sovereignty of the islands, which China calls Diaoyu, the sources said.

Xi, who also heads the Central Military Commission, the highest national defense organization, commented on a bilateral row over the Senkaku Islands, saying, "We can only move forward, not backward. We will never let even 1 millimetre of our territory taken," the sources added.

The coast guard has subsequently drafted a plan to keep the presence of its ships near the islets every day next year and conduct inspections of Japanese fishing boats in the sea area, if necessary, to boost Beijing's sovereignty claim, they said.

On Dec. 14, the annual number of days Chinese vessels were spotted near the Senkakus by Japan surpassed a previous record of 336, reported in 2022.

Xi's instruction came despite Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reiterating "serious concerns" regarding the situation surrounding the Senkaku Islands at a summit meeting with the Chinese leader in San Francisco in mid-November.

Following the Xi visit, China Coast Guard Director General Yu Zhong held a meeting at the command office and decided to constantly dispatch its ships to waters near the Senkakus and allow more Chinese navy vessels to sail between Yonaguni and Iriomote islands in southern Japan's Okinawa Prefecture, the sources said.

Yonaguni is Japan's westernmost island with a population of around 1,600, located 111 kilometers from Taiwan, the self-ruled democratic island Beijing claims as its own.

The row over the Senkakus has been a long-term source of friction between the two Asian neighbors. Since Japan brought the islets under state control in September 2012, Chinese coast guard vessels have repeatedly intruded into Japanese waters near them.

[ORAC]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sweeping-chinese-military-purge-exposes-weakness-could-widen-2023-12-30/

Chinese military purge exposes weakness, could widen

BEIJING, Dec 30 (Reuters) - A sweeping purge of Chinese generals has weakened the People's Liberation Army, exposing deep-rooted corruption that could take more time to fix and slow Chinese leader Xi Jinping's military modernization drive amid geopolitical tensions, analysts say.

China's top lawmakers ousted nine (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/sweeping-chinese-military-purge-exposes-weakness-could-widen-2023-12-30/ousted%20nine) senior military officers from the national legislative body on Friday, state media reported, a step that typically precedes further punishment for wayward cadres. Many of these were from the Rocket Force - a key arm of the PLA overseeing tactical and nuclear missiles…..

[Lonewolf_50]

In an SCS adjacent story, Sri Lanka not all that keen to support Chinese research in the Indian Ocean ...
Chinese Spy Ship Denied Port Entry in Blow to Xi (newsweek.com) (https://www.newsweek.com/china-oceanic-research-vessel-denied-sri-lanka-port-call-india-xi-jinping-1857265)Sri Lanka has rejected a request from China to allow an oceanic research vessel to dock and operate within its maritime zones, officials said on Sunday, in a win for India and a blow to the geopolitical ambitions (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-navy-wades-us-china-india-turf-war-indian-ocean-bangladesh-myanmar-1843571) of Chinese leader Xi Jinping (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/xi-jinping).

This decision to deny the Xiang Yang Hong 3's port access for an entire year followed a meeting last July between Prime Minister Narendra Modi (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/narendra-modi) of India and Sri Lanka (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/sri-lanka)'s President Ranil Wickremesinghe, in which Modi was said to have emphasized New Delhi's security concerns.

China's desire to conduct "deep water exploration" in the south Indian Ocean (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/indian-ocean) has been a point of contention, according to a report on Monday by the Indian daily Hindustan Times. Chinese state media accused Colombo of succumbing to a pressure campaign by New Delhi. Of course, they could claim to be looking for a certain 777 as a cover story ... :}

[Asturias56]

More likely "oceanic research" is a way to help the vast , often illegal , Chinese fishing operation

[jolihokistix]

Chinese 'research' ships have laser-mapped out the sea bed all around the southern islands of Japan.

[Asturias56]

The USN have been funding deep sea research for donkey's years - way back in the early 50'sd they mapped the earth's magnetic field over the Atlantic mainly using Neptunes IIRC

The data was very useful when the geological fraternity started to develop Plate Tectonic theory (as was the standardised network of seismic stations paid for by the US to monitor nuclear testing)

[Ninthace]

Chinese 'research' ships have laser-mapped out the sea bed all around the southern islands of Japan.
With that technology, perhaps they can find MH370?

[Wokkafans]

Chinese state media has revealed the Fujian, the country’s latest aircraft carrier.

The Fujian, with a displacement estimated to be perhaps as high as 100,000 tonnes, is a domestically-engineered design.

https://twitter.com/UKDefJournal/status/1742932754009067626?s=20

https://twitter.com/UKDefJournal/status/1742932754009067626?s=20

[Lonewolf_50]

Chinese state media has revealed the Fujian, the country’s latest aircraft carrier.

The Fujian, with a displacement estimated to be perhaps as high as 100,000 tonnes, is a domestically-engineered design. I wonder if they 'borrowed' the electromagnetic catapults from an American design, or if it is truly home grown.
Perhaps a bit of both.

[ORAC]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/china-has-new-full-scale-target-of-americas-ford-supercarrier

China Has New Full-Scale Target Of America’s Ford Supercarrier

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/603x340/image_725514227537ab46f5384812a8be55443a28c404.png

[Asturias56]

I wonder if they 'borrowed' the electromagnetic catapults from an American design, or if it is truly home grown.
Perhaps a bit of both.

"socialism with Chinese characteristics in the new era." = "US design with Chinese characteristics in the new era"

After all - why design it yourself when the people who know and have 80+ years of carrier experience can do it for you?

IIRC the PLA(N) has adopted just about every possible thing they can from the USN - eg deck handling procedures etc.

[glider5011]

Maybe a silly question,
But why doesn't it have an angled flight deck ?

[DogTailRed2]

If we have a war with China won't they just stop supplying the West with goods? That's got to hurt especially military components etc.

[ORAC]

It has, it’s just so big it’s not obvious…

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1200x800/image_cc7cf021b4d9aad3ecb881d70b238b5a3fbf9c69.jpeg

[rattman]

If we have a war with China won't they just stop supplying the West with goods? That's got to hurt especially military components etc.

OH NO I cant buy my cheap plastic crap

Except when I worked in this sort of stuff I had to sign an agreement that nothing could be supplied from a list of hostile state. Included in that list was PRC, we used to package complimentary pens into what we sold. For packages going into the DOD we had to remove all the free pens as they were chinese made or 'origin undetermined' Cant imagine there will be to much chinese stuff in western military

[Asturias56]

Unfortunately your Apple devices are stuffed with Chinese "crap" - as are your car, your PC, your TV...................

The problem is it's so ubiquitous it may well be there without anyone knowing about - because you bought something from someone in Oz, who put in some bits from the Uk, who put in some bits from India, who....... that's the issue with global capitalism - it's global

[glider5011]

Maybe a silly question,
But why doesn't it have an angled flight deck ?
I mean the new Chinese carrier..

[Ninthace]

And if I want an affordable EV . . .

[melmothtw]

I wonder if they 'borrowed' the electromagnetic catapults from an American design, or if it is truly home grown.
Perhaps a bit of both.

Nothing the Chinese have developed in modern times is truly home grown, and EMALS will be no exception.

[melmothtw]

If we have a war with China won't they just stop supplying the West with goods? That's got to hurt especially military components etc.

Counterpoint, the West stops buying Chinese goods. That's going to cripple their economy.

[melmothtw]

I mean the new Chinese carrier..

It does, the markings just haven't been applied yet but you can see it in the planform of the ship.

[ORAC]

Chinese artist impression of ship once complete for comparison, though I note the reduction from 4 to 3 catapults.

https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1920x1080/image_9225eff7846032fde95084e34e3ca6d31aa2d9ac.jpeg


https://cimg3.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/928x696/image_47ad6ef7f8a568be118508737c1285eddb77d963.jpeg

[fitliker]

Nice target

[glider5011]

Thanks
for the info . much appreciated.
Looks a fine ship with all the markings. and a little worrying for the Taiwan etc.

Simmbob

[rattman]

Unfortunately your Apple devices are stuffed with Chinese "crap" - as are your car, your PC, your TV...................

The problem is it's so ubiquitous it may well be there without anyone knowing about - because you bought something from someone in Oz, who put in some bits from the Uk, who put in some bits from India, who....... that's the issue with global capitalism - it's global


firstly none of which are defence related and in a case of a war with china not really going to caring much about my iphone or big screen TV

secondly many large international concerns are moving from china. Foxcon one of the largest parts suppliers for apple is moving iphone production are moving to india. Apple computing is moving to vietnam

[Asturias56]

those parts go everywhere and they're not all traceable - or easily traceable

[rattman]

Counterpoint, the West stops buying Chinese goods. That's going to cripple their economy.

When they got in a trade war with australia and stopped buying australian coal/iron. They started to freeze, iron smelters closed down. Imagine that but now coal, food, iron suddenly got cut close to zero china cant afford a war with the west. We buy thier crap and they buy stuff required for them to build the crap and survive

[Asturias56]

But it cost you.................. "China imposed a A$24bn ($16bn) hit on Australia, representing 5.5% of its total annual exports."

and you're still exporting to them

[ORAC]

https://cimg7.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1088x1079/image_a51a243f401598ca2189e2a3ae10c73057c14a70.png