The South China Sea's Gathering Storm [Archive] - Page 5

Lyneham Lad

29th Jul 2021, 09:47

In The Times today.
Beijing’s hostile welcome for British fleet (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/441791fc-efc5-11eb-8f01-2c678acbb979?shareToken=22e12ef84a67d50340d81c47d683c253)

China’s navy is hoping to “practise” its military skills on the British aircraft carrier Queen Elizabeth as it sails through the tense and contested waters of the South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-first-water-war-is-uncomfortably-close-n9bjctvgn), the country’s state media has warned.

In a teasingly sinister message of welcome, the nationalist tabloid Global Times reported that the People’s Liberation Army navy was holding exercises of its own in two separate parts of the sea, and would react to any “improper acts” by the British fleet. Other Chinese commentary has denounced the British deployment as a pretentious act of neo-colonial chest-thumping.

“The PLA will closely monitor the UK warships’ activities, stand ready to deal with any improper acts, and also see this as a chance for practise and for studying the UK’s latest warships up close,” the Global Times reported, citing an unnamed military expert.

“China receives friends with good wine and deals with wolves with a shotgun,” warned Wu Shicun, president of the National Institute for South China Sea Studies, in an article published online yesterday.

The passage of the Queen Elizabeth, which is accompanied by an American and Dutch ship as well as its own support vessels, is intended to underline the government’s strategic “tilt” to East Asia at a time of increasing Chinese military assertiveness (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-accuses-us-of-demonising-imaginary-enemy-tvwv8llt3) throughout the region. Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, said last week that, despite China’s claims to sovereignty over almost the entire South China Sea, Britain had a “duty” to insist on freedom of navigation through the strategic waterway through which $5 trillion of trade passes every year.

Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, sounded a note of caution about the British tilt towards Asia — hinting at concerns that it overstretches Britain’s armed forces. At a speech in Singapore he emphasised the need for countries with limited resources to “balance” military commitments around the world.

“If, for example, we focus a bit more here [in Asia], are there areas that the UK can be more helpful in other parts of the world?” Austin asked.

Sensible comment by Lloyd Austin - but will it be heeded?

West Coast

29th Jul 2021, 14:18

In The Times today.
Beijing’s hostile welcome for British fleet (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/441791fc-efc5-11eb-8f01-2c678acbb979?shareToken=22e12ef84a67d50340d81c47d683c253)

Sensible comment by Lloyd Austin - but will it be heeded?

Quite frankly SECDEF’s comments should have been made in private and not in a public forum. The RN would be quite right in telling Austin to stuff it.

etudiant

29th Jul 2021, 16:31

Quite frankly SECDEF’s comments should have been made in private and not in a public forum. The RN would be quite right in telling Austin to stuff it.

So sensible comments should only be made in private?
Perhaps that explains the quality of much of the public discourse.

West Coast

29th Jul 2021, 17:18

So sensible comments should only be made in private?
Perhaps that explains the quality of much of the public discourse.

I would expect the SECDEF to praise in public, criticize in private.

etudiant

29th Jul 2021, 17:35

I would expect the SECDEF to praise in public, criticize in private.

Agree fully, so suspect he is now speaking out after that effort was rebuffed. At least he is putting down a marker that the US thinks this is stupid.

West Coast

29th Jul 2021, 17:57

Agree fully, so suspect he is now speaking out after that effort was rebuffed. At least he is putting down a marker that the US thinks this is stupid.

Doubtful. Successful messaging associated with FON exercises is driven home not by one nation doing them but by many from near and far.

I hope the task force stays for a long while, an FU to the Chinese and to Austin.

Anyway, who is Austin to suggest to the UK to stay in their own lane. The Chinese will eat up the division offered by him.

SLXOwft

29th Jul 2021, 20:11

So are VMFA-211 and DDG-68 no longer in the same chain of command as the US SECDEF? As West Coast implies, I think the Indian and Malaysian Navies (and their Governments) are not be alone in welcoming having more than just the USN demonstrating a commitment to the rule of law in the Indian Ocean and South China.

If General (rtd) Austin is hinting that the UK needs to address its overstretch by investing more in defence capabilities, then I wouldn't disagree. I wonder if he has some residual doubts from a perception of the effects overstretch on the UK's commitment to operations Iraq or Afghanistan during his commands there? As a trained counsellor I would have thought he would know the importance of listening carefully before giving advice.

Commander Taco

30th Jul 2021, 02:57

What would Trudeau do? He must have a Kung fu suit in his dressing up box he’s been itching to get out?
He and his Daddy adored all things Chinese (Cuban too), but “Socks” has been pretty quiet lately on anything to do with China.

Not_a_boffin

30th Jul 2021, 10:18

Agree fully, so suspect he is now speaking out after that effort was rebuffed. At least he is putting down a marker that the US thinks this is stupid.

Except that he's not, because he doesn't. This particular speech has been wildly misquoted/misinterpreted. I'm going to shamelessly steal someone else's excellent post from another forum which covers it in more detail.

I didn't have the means of copying the rough but largely accurate transcription done by someone on Twitter when responding earlier. This came about when Shashank Joshi queried whether this was the gist of what Austin had said:

From the IISS footage of Austin's answer to a question about the UK and US defence relationship

"I'm excited about what we're seeing with the interoperability that 's been demonstrated between the UK and our forces as we've made this journey from Europe to here. It's really been a successful endeavour and I look forward to more of that going forward. The UK and the US are global nations with global interests and so as we look to balance our efforts in various parts of the world.

We're not only looking to help each other in the Indo-Pacific but we're looking to ensure that we help each other in other parts of the world as well as if... if... for example, we focus a bit more here are there areas the UK can be more helpful in other parts of the world .I have a great relationship with the UK MoD and these are discussions that we've had a number of times and again it's a balancing act - resources are scarce, no matter which country you're talking about... and again, we have interests around the globe, and we want to make sure that we work together to address all of those those interests.

There are things, obviously that if... if nations are capable of providing resources and capability to help in this region we welcome that and we facilitate that where possible. But again, we have a global perspective and there are a number of places where we can help each other as we shift our stance."

So - 'if, for example, we focus a bit more here' - the 'here' is generic and not the Indo-Pacific specifically. It's 'Ok, so we'll do.... here, and you do... there, OK?'

https://youtu.be/w5zTv4-S98k

This was not Austin having a go at the UK sending a carrier to the Indo-Pacific. Within a couple of hours of it being questioned by Joshi and the transcript and link to the interview - the question is just after 45 minutes in to this -

- the FT had amended the original damning story since people were starting to suggest that it might fit in with a perceived editorial agenda at the newspaper regarding the UK and Europe (which I think might have been a bit tin-foil hatted from some of the comments).

The problem is that rather than do a wider search of Twitter, Tobias Ellwood helped perpetuate the original story's take, rather than going 'hang on. A number of people are suggesting that the story's take is a pile of poo'...

etudiant

30th Jul 2021, 11:52

Except that he's not, because he doesn't. This particular speech has been wildly misquoted/misinterpreted. I'm going to shamelessly steal someone else's excellent post from another forum which covers it in more detail.

I didn't have the means of copying the rough but largely accurate transcription done by someone on Twitter when responding earlier. This came about when Shashank Joshi queried whether this was the gist of what Austin had said:

From the IISS footage of Austin's answer to a question about the UK and US defence relationship

"I'm excited about what we're seeing with the interoperability that 's been demonstrated between the UK and our forces as we've made this journey from Europe to here. It's really been a successful endeavour and I look forward to more of that going forward. The UK and the US are global nations with global interests and so as we look to balance our efforts in various parts of the world.

We're not only looking to help each other in the Indo-Pacific but we're looking to ensure that we help each other in other parts of the world as well as if... if... for example, we focus a bit more here are there areas the UK can be more helpful in other parts of the world .I have a great relationship with the UK MoD and these are discussions that we've had a number of times and again it's a balancing act - resources are scarce, no matter which country you're talking about... and again, we have interests around the globe, and we want to make sure that we work together to address all of those those interests.

There are things, obviously that if... if nations are capable of providing resources and capability to help in this region we welcome that and we facilitate that where possible. But again, we have a global perspective and there are a number of places where we can help each other as we shift our stance."

So - 'if, for example, we focus a bit more here' - the 'here' is generic and not the Indo-Pacific specifically. It's 'Ok, so we'll do.... here, and you do... there, OK?'

https://youtu.be/w5zTv4-S98k

This was not Austin having a go at the UK sending a carrier to the Indo-Pacific. Within a couple of hours of it being questioned by Joshi and the transcript and link to the interview - the question is just after 45 minutes in to this -

- the FT had amended the original damning story since people were starting to suggest that it might fit in with a perceived editorial agenda at the newspaper regarding the UK and Europe (which I think might have been a bit tin-foil hatted from some of the comments).

The problem is that rather than do a wider search of Twitter, Tobias Ellwood helped perpetuate the original story's take, rather than going 'hang on. A number of people are suggesting that the story's take is a pile of poo'...

Thank you, that clears things up properly. I don't get the FT, so only saw the quoted excerpt.
Longer term though, it is hard not to see China prevailing in its push to dominate the South China Sea as well as Taiwan.
They are building the world's largest navy and rapidly expanding their nuclear strike force to be more comparable to that of the US, offsetting the perceived imbalance of forces..
They have more industrial capacity than their potential adversaries and they are using it to become locally preeminent.

Not_a_boffin

30th Jul 2021, 12:29

Thank you, that clears things up properly. I don't get the FT, so only saw the quoted excerpt.
Longer term though, it is hard not to see China prevailing in its push to dominate the South China Sea as well as Taiwan.
They are building the world's largest navy and rapidly expanding their nuclear strike force to be more comparable to that of the US, offsetting the perceived imbalance of forces..
They have more industrial capacity than their potential adversaries and they are using it to become locally preeminent.

And have been doing so for some years. We can't say we weren't warned.

Question is whether rule of law is worth standing up for...

Lyneham Lad

30th Jul 2021, 16:00

Yet more rhetoric (or should that sabre-rattling?) from Beijing.
Britain ‘asking for a beating’ over warship challenge in South China Sea, warns Beijing (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/48a9112c-f11f-11eb-a2a3-afea84050239?shareToken=e8f14bbe532c5df93234b613bfb2449a). (in The Times this afternoon).

Britain would be a “bitch . . . asking for a beating” if its aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth challenged China’s territorial claims in the disputed South China Sea, state media have declared.

The British flagship has arrived at the South China Sea, with plans to carry out legal freedom of navigation operations in international waters alongside US ships, as the UK bolsters its presence (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/military-chief-reveals-secret-new-role-for-special-forces-against-china-and-russia-hgbdwcsg7) in East Asia to support regional allies in the face of China’s militarisation of the area and claims on territory.

Hu Xijin, the influential editor-in-chief of the state-run Global Times, said that any incursion into Chinese-claimed waters would be “made the example of China’s determination to safeguard state sovereignty”.

“To say it precisely, if the UK wants to play the role to coerce China in the South China Sea, then it is being a bitch. If it has any substantial move, it is asking for a beating,” Hu said.

“US ships have repeatedly entered the 12-nautical-mile limit of Chinese islets in the South China Sea and China has exercised maximum restraint,” she said. “But it doesn’t mean we will tolerate such provocations for long, and it definitely doesn’t mean US allies can imitate Washington’s dangerous acts.”

A country can claim the water within 12 nautical miles from its coastlines as its territorial sea.

“We must say it bluntly to them, if their warships should behave recklessly in the South China Sea like the US military, they will be made the example of China’s determination to safeguard state sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

The South China Sea, through which $5 trillion of trade passes each year, has become a flashpoint of competing interests over the past decade. China claims almost all of it as its own territory, despite rivalling claims (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/philippines-minister-fires-four-letter-volley-at-china-over-disputed-reef-r0sj2fj9q) from at least six other governments. It has militarised the waters and set up administrative regions there.

The US military has routinely carried out freedom of navigation operations and conducted exercises there. Its allies have joined the US for naval drills (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-and-japan-ramp-up-military-exercises-in-south-china-sea-nrnwcspvm) in the South China Sea but none has flouted China’s territorial claims by sailing within 12 nautical miles of Beijing-controlled islands.

Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, told The Times (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-will-not-scare-us-out-of-international-waters-says-defence-secretary-ben-wallace-q3fqdxfb5)last week that Britain had a “duty” to insist on freedom of navigation when HMS Queen Elizabeth and its fleet sailed through on their way to Japan.

“It’s no secret that China shadows and challenges ships transiting international waters on very legitimate routes,” he said. “We will respect China and we hope that China respects us . . . we will sail where international law allows.”

Wu Qian, a spokesman for the Chinese ministry of national defence, said yesterday that Beijing “firmly opposed some country deploying warships over long distance to provoke troubles”, adding that the military would “take all necessary measures to respond firmly and effectively”.

Wu Shicun, president of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, also said that Beijing must stop the British aircraft carrier entering China-claimed sea territories.

“If it dares to enter 12 nautical miles of Nansha Islands [Spratly Islands] and trespasses our territorial sea of the Xisha Islands [Paracel Islands], China must take strong countermeasures to make it pay, hence forestalling other countries from following suit and making similar provocations,” he wrote.

etudiant

30th Jul 2021, 17:20

Flugplatz

30th Jul 2021, 20:56

Sounds like a lot of serious noises coming out of Beijing. I think the Russian response in Crimea to the Royal Navy sail-by has probably already raised the ante, so will we see the HMS QE group come under fire? I am sure the RN won't bottle it (despite, I am sure, some private misgivings from those in command in the group) although maybe the politicians will wonder if sailing in the disputed waters is really worth the possible repercussions? Probably the least we will see are aggressive mock attacks, in force, against the strike group; if not an outright actual attack. Or maybe attempts to lure an F35, or two, out for an aerial victory. Possibly also, in the modern manner, an intense Cyberattack on the UK if the Strike Group goes through with the plan that seems to be suggested. I suppose the advantage to China would be to send the strongest possible message that the stakes have changed dramatically without getting in a shooting war with the US.

I think we may well see a pause as the UK strike group arrives in the region and possibly incorporates a US or Japanese warship or two, or at least get some US air support covering the op. Expect leave is already being cancelled for a whole lot of personnel in Main Building and it will be an extremely anxious time across the UK defence establishment

ORAC

30th Jul 2021, 21:09

I think we may well see a pause as the UK strike group arrives in the region and possibly incorporates a US or Japanese warship or two, or at least get some US air support covering the op.
it’s already got the USS Sullivans as part of its escort and VMFA-211 aboard as part of its air wing. That’s without knowing what submarine escort it might have or long range EW/Elint and other airborne support.

What more do you want?

Flugplatz

30th Jul 2021, 21:44

SASless

31st Jul 2021, 00:27

it’s already got the USS Sullivans as part of its escort and VMFA-211 aboard as part of its air wing. That’s without knowing what submarine escort it might have or long range EW/Elint and other airborne support.

What more do you want?

It depends upon what the Chinese show up with I should think.

If they get very snotty about it all....it might take a bit more than is tagging along for the ride currently.

Surely the Chinese are smart enough to know where to draw the line....so to speak.

They do not want to trigger a genuine shooter up....yet we better hope or it could get messy quick.

etudiant

31st Jul 2021, 01:02

It depends upon what the Chinese show up with I should think.

If they get very snotty about it all....it might take a bit more than is tagging along for the ride currently.

Surely the Chinese are smart enough to know where to draw the line....so to speak.

They do not want to trigger a genuine shooter up....yet we better hope or it could get messy quick.

It would take a shooting incident of some kind to precipitate a fundamental reappraisal of how the western nations deal with China.
As long as China can count on a half trillion dollar annual trade surplus with the western powers, it cannot be prevented from expanding its influence globally.
Perhaps HMG is conscious of that.

jolihokistix

31st Jul 2021, 07:21

The only country actively practising hegemony in that whole area is China.

They need to let ships sail freely past the Spratleys and Paracels to demonstrate respect for international law, and to gain badly needed sympathy on the international stage.

Imagegear

31st Jul 2021, 11:26

It may be the case that denial of free movement through the SCS, results in restricted movement world-wide on Chinese vessels.

It would be quite easy for the English Channel to be blocked. consider the impact on trade to Northern Europe.

Equally, Gibraltar was not acquired out of curiosity, or trying to avoid the straits of Malacca, Panama Canal? Suez?

Nope China's response is going to be carefully measured.

IG

SASless

31st Jul 2021, 14:57

As long as China can count on a half trillion dollar annual trade surplus with the western powers, it cannot be prevented from expanding its influence globally.

Spot On!

We need all those cheap shoddy goods for the shelves of the Big Box Stores and Online Shopping at Amazon.

Asturias56

31st Jul 2021, 18:22

Which we all buy of course.....................

The Chinese won't start a shooting war over a single UK aircraft Carrier - they know it's all bluster from the UK who won't be able to keep a decent force in the area for more than a few days

Lookleft

1st Aug 2021, 04:16

Its not about a single aircraft carrier. It is sending a message to the Chinese that if you take on one, you take on all.

Asturias56

1st Aug 2021, 15:38

SASless

1st Aug 2021, 16:10

Its not about a single aircraft carrier. It is sending a message to the Chinese that if you take on one, you take on all.

By gosh that will have the Chinese shivering in their Sea Boots!:ugh:

Out Of Trim

1st Aug 2021, 18:41

Not much of a message coming from Joe Biden for sure! 🤔

ORAC

1st Aug 2021, 19:09

We will see what happens both militarily - and in terms of trade and shipping embargoes plus economic sanctions if the PRC decides to attempt any sort of military action.

etudiant

1st Aug 2021, 23:20

We will see what happens both militarily - and in terms of trade and shipping embargoes plus economic sanctions if the PRC decides to attempt any sort of military action.

Seems to me that the US/UK team is being deliberately obstreperous, prodding the Chinese to put up or shut up.
If the Chinese attack ships engaged in 'innocent passage' though waters close to Chinese operated (but illegal according to international law) bases in the South China Sea, they provoke a conflict they are not yet ready for.
My guess is that this is the point of this deployment, create a precedent that China will also need to respect.
Of course, as we have seen in Hong Kong, China has plenty of very good diplomats able to run rings around precedents and legal constraints.
So we will have a pause, until China builds up some more.

Big Pistons Forever

2nd Aug 2021, 00:28

China is crystal clear in its position towards Taiwan. It is a break away province of China that needs to be recaptured. To date the strategy to bring Taiwan back to mother China has been political and economic, but I am sure that the PLA has a war plan to take Taiwan by force. The calculus is then, will the Western world intervene militarily; yes or no.

I would suggest that the moment China is sure that they won't be opposed they will launch the invasion. I think we are getting closer and closer to that moment .....

SASless

2nd Aug 2021, 00:37

Did not Tom Clancy sort all this out in one of his books?

Lookleft

2nd Aug 2021, 02:10

So Australia will go to war with China if they take a pop at the QE?
I really doubt it - there is no clear coalition of those willing to start any sort of barney with the PRC - especially in SE Asia.

You don't understand Australia's military history then. There is plenty of concern in SE Asia about Chinese power and there are existing military alliances that would come into play should China decide to use military force to take Taiwan. Like I said it is about more than the presence of a single UK carrier.

Asturias56

2nd Aug 2021, 07:59

Concern yes - but I really don't think Australia, or a lot of other countries, will go to war with China over Taiwan - most don't even recognise it as a sperate country officially

It'll belief the Indian take-over of Goa, the Moroccan takeover of the Spanish Sahara or the Indonesian takeover of East Timor and Irian Jaya. Lots of tut-tutting and maybe even sanctions but war? No way......

Not_a_boffin

2nd Aug 2021, 08:12

Seems to me that the US/UK team is being deliberately obstreperous, prodding the Chinese to put up or shut up.
If the Chinese attack ships engaged in 'innocent passage' though waters close to Chinese operated (but illegal according to international law) bases in the South China Sea, they provoke a conflict they are not yet ready for.
My guess is that this is the point of this deployment, create a precedent that China will also need to respect.
Of course, as we have seen in Hong Kong, China has plenty of very good diplomats able to run rings around precedents and legal constraints.
So we will have a pause, until China builds up some more.

The precedent of complying with UNCLOS then?

The thing about international law is that if you don't "enforce" it (in this case exercise the right of innocent passage), no-one takes any notice of it. Which sets a very dangerous precedent.

And don't forget that the PRC are - in effect - claiming that only they can allow access to the entire South China Sea, which is significantly at odds with UNCLOS as a whole, never mind who owns what piece of the SCS.

Imagegear

2nd Aug 2021, 12:00

If public footpaths in the UK are not periodically "walked" by people who care - they go away and get covered by a field of beet, thereby removing the "right of way" Ever tried walking through a field of beet ?, it's not easy.

IG

Lookleft

2nd Aug 2021, 12:20

Lots of tut-tutting and maybe even sanctions but war? No way......

Thats what the Germans thought.

etudiant

2nd Aug 2021, 12:29

The precedent of complying with UNCLOS then?

The thing about international law is that if you don't "enforce" it (in this case exercise the right of innocent passage), no-one takes any notice of it. Which sets a very dangerous precedent.

And don't forget that the PRC are - in effect - claiming that only they can allow access to the entire South China Sea, which is significantly at odds with UNCLOS as a whole, never mind who owns what piece of the SCS.

How UNCLOS (which the US is not a party to while China is) would be interpreted in the case of the South China Sea is clearly an open issue.
That said, China previously refused to recognize the UNCLOS Arbitration panel set up in response to the Philippine objections to Chinas maritime claims.
Presumably China will continue to bulk up its forces in the region until they can make their claims stick..That might not take too long given their current pace.

Lookleft

4th Aug 2021, 02:14

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-04/india-building-secret-mauritius-military-base-defence-australia/100348254

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-04/south-china-sea-indonesia-us-blinken-india-germany/100348456 (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-08-04/india-building-secret-mauritius-military-base-defence-australia/100348254)

Just to reassure those in Europe and the UK that SE Asia is taking the threat from China seriously.

ORAC

4th Aug 2021, 05:42

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/08/02/german-warship-bayern-heads-to-the-indo-pacific/

German warship ‘Bayern’ heads to the Indo-Pacific

WASHINGTON – The German navy’s frigate “Bayern” set sail on Monday for the Indo-Pacific region, fully loaded with Berlin’s aspirations to play a small role in the geopolitical standoff between China and the West.

The first such deployment in almost 20 years is meant to uphold freedom of navigation in international waters, protect “open societies” and express support for regional partners sharing Germany’s values, Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said in a statement.

The six-month mission follows the government’s overall strategy, published almost a year ago, for dealing with Indo-Pacific challenges. For Germany, that has entailed a delicate dance around the subject of China, which government leaders believe is a would-be adversary in the security arena and an ally in other domains, like fighting climate change.

The Bayern’s departure from Wilhelmshaven comes after the coronavirus crisis last year ended planning for a more modern frigate (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2020/03/12/germany-plans-to-send-a-warship-to-the-indian-ocean/) to conduct the mission.

According to the German ministry of defense, the Bayern will help enforce the UN sanctions regime against North Korea and support the NATO and EU missions Operation Sea Guardian and Atalanta, respectively. As a show-of-presence and training mission, the ship’s deployment does not fall under the country’s laws requiring parliamentary approval for military operations, the defense ministry’s statement notes.

A map published by the German armed forces outlines stops in 12 different ports while underway, including in Djibouti, Karachi, Diego Garcia, Perth, Guam, Tokyo and Shanghai. The ship is scheduled to traverse the South China Sea, a hotspot of disputed Chinese territorial claims.

The deployment amounts to a heavy lift for the German sea service, according to Sebastian Bruns, German naval analyst and guest lecturer at the U.S. Naval Academy.

“Operationally, it’s an important contribution, although at the price of gutting the fleet,” he said, noting ship maintenance plans and crew training schedules had to be significantly altered to make the trip possible. “Politically, it’s even more significant, towards allies both in Europe and in the region, and towards China.”

ORAC

5th Aug 2021, 19:32

etudiant

5th Aug 2021, 21:17

https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2021/08/04/china-reportedly-converted-civilian-ferries-for-amphibious-assault-operations/

China reportedly converted civilian ferries for amphibious assault operations

MELBOURNE, Australia — China has converted civilian ferries for use in military amphibious operations, potentially enabling the country to significantly surge its amphibious assault capabilities in a contingency like a Taiwan invasion (https://www.defensenews.com/air/2021/06/16/china-sends-largest-group-of-military-aircraft-in-single-day-near-taiwan/), according to a new report.…..

Another reminder that the Chinese are not as blinkered in their tactics as are our military planners!
I do think China will seek to assemble overwhelming force before they take over Taiwan. They do not have the needed assets as yet, but the nuclear and navy build ups, plus the bases upgrades are all pretty suggestive.
I think it is less than a decade away at the current rate of going.

Fareastdriver

6th Aug 2021, 09:12

If the Chinese ferries are the same Chinese ferries that I have been on the troops will be incapacitated half way across.

That's if they get that far.

West Coast

6th Aug 2021, 14:21

Not a Navy chap, but have to think that an engagement with a man of war wouldn’t fare well for these ferries, not being designed for the rigors of war.

Guess that’s a chance the Chinese are willing to take.

Flugplatz

6th Aug 2021, 21:18

I don't think the Chinese strategy will allow for a singular focus on retaking Taiwan, typically with game-changing strategic moves like that, history has shown that successful campaigns feature some sort of 'second front' (ideally a real measure beyond a temporary diversion). You raise the stakes like that and put a major other factor in play, then your adversary has to weigh its response against that other major threat. I wouldn't put it past China to make a major move against either Japan or Australia, just to make the south China sea issue seem like a relative sideshow. They can back down on any significant move against Japan / Philippines / Australia a lot easier if they establish a new territorial understanding in the south China sea. Same sort of thing during the Cuba missile crisis, 'NATO' missiles were withdrawn from Turkey as part of the bargain to withdraw nukes from Cuba. In this case, bearing in mind the modern world and China's present means of undermining the western democracies, a cyber-attack on a scale not seen before is a major possibility

Buster Hyman

7th Aug 2021, 08:54

I'd love to see Taiwan draw up some plans for a Mainland invasion...just for ****s n giggles.

Less Hair

7th Aug 2021, 10:52

China needs global raw material supply routes. Wouldn't they therefore be too vulnerable to risk any serious global confrontation over Taiwan? An invasion would end trade with the US and upset/ruin relations within Asia. The price is just too high especially as China today earns profits from shares in Taiwanese companies itself.

HAS59

7th Aug 2021, 13:29

China has 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands which it first occupied in 1955 and 7 in the Spratly Islands which have been occupied since the 1980’s and 1990’s.

There are substantial aviation and naval facilities in Woody Island, Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef and Mischief Reef. Many other occupied reefs host similar facilities. China has stated that these bases are part of their strategy to operate surface action groups with aviation support into the Indian Ocean and beyond. They are planned to be refuelling stages and bases for forward deployed ships and aircraft. Their legal status can be debated by the rest of the world but China knows that they are there to stay and no one is going to remove them from these occupied reefs.

This and not the forced capture of Taiwan is their main focus of attention. The forces they are developing are for global power protection. It will take time to achieve their stated aim of being the major superpower on earth but they are marching ahead in that direction.

All of this can take place in a situation where global trade and the free right of navigation exist.

SASless

7th Aug 2021, 21:40

Seems to me we should remember a previous war fought against an Asian Nation that involved their establishment of island forrtresses with airfields and port facilities that we had to with in order to convince them to stand down and what it took to get them to do that.

The Chinese know do not have the ability or desire to fight a conventional land war with them so they are quite safe from that worry.

Asturias56

8th Aug 2021, 08:06

"I wouldn't put it past China to make a major move against either Japan or Australia,"

AUSTRALIA? The nearest point in Australia is 4000 kms from the closest point in China - that's going to be some move.......... especially when you have Indonesia in the way. Finland is closer to China than Australia is.

When they want to pressure Australia they just stop buying coal, iron ore and wine

Lookleft

8th Aug 2021, 10:25

When they want to pressure Australia they just stop buying coal, iron ore and wine

You might want to pay a bit more attention to what is actually happening in the region. China stopped buying Australian wine since before covid. They also stopped buying barley, lobsters, beef and coal. What did Australia do? I will tell you what didn't happen and that was the country fell and to a heap and beg China for forgiveness. Other markets were found because that what happens with global trade. As for the iron ore, China needs it more than the political pressure stopping it would apply. As a matter of fact, with the price of iron ore, Australia is doing quite well out of Chinese trade bans.

Less Hair

8th Aug 2021, 11:10

Exactly my point, China needs trade partners, raw materials and global trade routes. They cannot afford to ruin relations.

etudiant

8th Aug 2021, 16:58

Exactly my point, China needs trade partners, raw materials and global trade routes. They cannot afford to ruin relations.

Fear that may be a misperception.
The China Xi is driving is quite willing to weaponize trade, secure in the knowledge that democracies don't fight back.
China put 200% tariffs on Australian wine, to show displeasure. Australia failed to halt iron ore exports because it would be locally unpopular.
I think China has a more effective strategy in these contests.

Lookleft

8th Aug 2021, 23:51

secure in the knowledge that democracies don't fight back.

Depends on what you are expecting in a "fight back". Australia has taken China to the WTO over the tariffs put on wine. Slow and ponderous but highlighting the rules based system that world trade is meant to abide by. Its China that is overestimating what its economic power can achieve.

Australia failed to halt iron ore exports because it would be locally unpopular.

Australia hasn't failed anything of the sort. Its China that requires the iron ore so have not banned its import. Why would Australia ban the export of a major contributor to its GDP? Far from being unpopular a lot of Australians would be more than happy if the exports were closed to China. Whatever goodwill China was trying to foster with its big cuddly panda persona has long since dried up with political interference exposed and punitive trade sanctions. It also doesn't wash when the CCP Ambassador resorts to Communist rhetoric to try and put Australia back in its place.

Exactly my point, China needs trade partners, raw materials and global trade routes. They cannot afford to ruin relations.

Thats good in theory but political rhetoric and military jingoism trumps common sense and any trade considerations.

Commander Taco

9th Aug 2021, 03:02

You might want to pay a bit more attention to what is actually happening in the region. China stopped buying Australian wine since before covid. They also stopped buying barley, lobsters, beef and coal. What did Australia do? I will tell you what didn't happen and that was the country fell and to a heap and beg China for forgiveness. Other markets were found because that what happens with global trade. As for the iron ore, China needs it more than the political pressure stopping it would apply. As a matter of fact, with the price of iron ore, Australia is doing quite well out of Chinese trade bans.

Lookleft,

Your country’s resoluteness in dealing with China is admired by many Canadians. The true cost of one’s principles is when it actually costs you something to have them.
Our PM is feckless and a poseur and his words on any given subject are but wind.

layman

9th Aug 2021, 08:32

Don't know what this means but, despite China's trade sanctions, trade (both ways) continues to grow!

Australia's trade in goods with China in 2020 | Australian Bureau of Statistics (abs.gov.au) (https://www.abs.gov.au/articles/australias-trade-goods-china-2020)

2019-2020: $150,488 / $80,876 (millions) export to China / imports from China
2018-2019: $134 / $78
2017-2018: $106 / $68
2016-2017: $95 / $61
2015-2016: $75 / $61
2014-2015: $75 / $57

Lyneham Lad

10th Aug 2021, 12:35

In The Times this afternoon:-

Chinese military pilots step into the dark with night-time carrier landings (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-military-pilots-step-into-the-dark-with-night-time-carrier-landings-tjkkskr86)
China’s naval air force will expand its night-flying combat capabilities after a group of military instructors were certified to teach take-offs and landings on the country’s aircraft carriers after dark.

Pilots who can take off from and land on a carrier at any time give greater combat flexibility.

Until now, only pilots in the US, the UK, Russia and France had mastered it, but the Chinese are joining their ranks as President Xi (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/xi-jinping?page=1)demands the country build a military force that can rival other world powers. China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/china?page=1)is also building its own fleet of aircraft carriers.

“The biggest challenge for night-time landing is the low visibility without any surrounding environment for reference,” a carrier aircraft landing commander told the PLA Daily, the official newspaper of the People’s Liberation Army.

“You can only rely on the deck lights for an accurate landing in a small deck landing area, which is a great test of the pilot’s skills and courage.”

The PLA’s Naval Aviation University in the port city of Yantai has devised a group training programme with lectures, drills and simulations, according to the military newspaper.

On a recent night, Wang Yong, an aviation instructor, successfully landed a J-15 fighter jet on the deck of the aircraft carrier Liaoning in the Bohai Sea in northern China, and then was followed by several other instructors.

“The risk factor at night is many times higher than that for daytime landing,” Wang said. “It requires pilots not only to have excellent flying skills but also a strong heart and strong psychological qualities.”

Asturias56

11th Aug 2021, 08:02

“The risk factor at night is many times higher than that for daytime landing,” Wang said. “It requires pilots not only to have excellent flying skills but also a strong heart and strong psychological qualities.”

You can say that again I think......... braver men and women than me for sure

ORAC

13th Aug 2021, 06:05

https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/CASI/Display/Article/2729781/pla-likely-begins-construction-of-an-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-silo-si/

PLA Likely Begins Construction of an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Silo Site near Hanggin Banner

By mid-May 2021, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) likely began construction of a potential intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silo site in Hanggin Banner, Ordos City, Inner Mongolia (approximately at 40.113, 108.104).

Images taken by the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 mission between 16 May and 9 August 2021 reveal a construction footprint similar to those found at known PLA ICBM silo construction sites at Jilantai, Guazhou (typically referred to as the Yumen site), and Hami…..

A Sentinel-2 image taken on 9 August 2021 shows at least 29 possible silo construction sites. These 29 sites are divided across two areas- a northern and southern cluster. The northern cluster consists of at least 15 probable silo construction sites while the southern cluster consists of at least 14 probable sites. Of the 29 identified sites, 13 have dome shelters.

Although these dome shelters are slightly different than those found at other known PLA ICBM silo construction sites, the general configuration of each construction site at Hanggin Banner matches known sites at other locations. The remaining sites are cleared of excess material with some sites having limited excavation activity similar to those found at other known silo construction sites.

Assuming the PLA Rocket Force (PLARF) will continue to deploy launchers in intervals of 6 or 12, this site will field a minimum of 30-36 silos. (A typical PLARF launch brigade consists of six launch battalions with typically one or two launchers per battalion for ICBMs.)….

Between the roughly 30 or more possible ICBM launchers at Hanggin Banner, conservative estimates on the number of launchers at the Hami and Guazhou ICBM silo sites, and the PLARF’s current force of operational ICBM brigades, the PLARF’s projected inventory of ground-based ICBM launchers is close to or more than the United States’ current number of deployed Minuteman III ICBMs.

With the addition of at least two Type 096 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines as identified in the 2020 China Military Power Report and a conservative estimate of one brigade of 20 H-20 stealth bombers, China’s future inventory of strategic nuclear delivery systems seems on track to approaching parity with those of the United States and Russia……

Asturias56

13th Aug 2021, 07:44

Surprised its taken them so long to emulate American and Russian silo deployments

etudiant

13th Aug 2021, 21:33

ORAC

13th Aug 2021, 21:46

etudiant

13th Aug 2021, 23:16

Because, with thermonuclear weapons, you reach a limit where any more just moves the dust and rocks around and there’s no point.

In fact any additional fallout and other effects tend to hurt you as much as much as your enemy - who in these days is also your customer.

Agree with that entirely, but the perception of greater strength has considerable influence.That is what China is clearly working to achieve. It is a substantial shift from their previous 'credible deterrent is enough' posture.

West Coast

14th Aug 2021, 05:29

Agree with that entirely, but the perception of greater strength has considerable influence.

On who? Chinese domestic audience? The military- industrial complex?

Asturias56

14th Aug 2021, 07:54

As I've pointed out before they have 15 -20 year window before the demographics catch up with their budget

A couple of hundred silo'd missiles really doesn't change the numbers very much - the West & Russia have lived in that situation for 60 years

Gnadenburg

14th Aug 2021, 22:14

Australia is investing in Lockheed Martin's PrSM missile. I'm guessing it will be one of the missiles in mind, for the domestic missile production capability being pursued by the Australian government.

Though debatable how resilient the FPDA in event of CCP aggression on the western fringes of the First Island Chain, the basing of shore based anti-ship missiles on Peninsula or Borneo Malaysia ( coupled with airpower and naval assets ) adds to the PLA's headaches in projecting naval forces so far from their own land based airpower.

https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/peter-dutton/media-releases/australia-and-us-partner-spearhead-precision-strike-missile

Asturias56

15th Aug 2021, 07:53

Gnadenburg

15th Aug 2021, 22:56

If? India is looking to sell Brahmos to Vietnam & the Phillipines. Killers of the PLA's little blue men ( fishing boat militia ) without more advanced capabilities in both the Philippine and Vietnamese militaries.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/missile-race-heats-up-in-asia-amid-concerns-about-china-2021-7?r=US&IR=T

Lyneham Lad

16th Aug 2021, 12:57

In The Times:-
South Korea’s navy has unveiled the country’s first domestically built submarine that is capable of firing ballistic missiles into North Korea. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/south-koreans-send-on-their-submarine-to-tackle-the-north-korea-pw0w6grrb)

South Korea’s navy has unveiled the country’s first domestically built submarine that is capable of firing ballistic missiles into North Korea.

The commissioning of Dosan Ahn Chang-ho — named after an independence activist who was jailed five times by the Japanese — comes as tension rises in the region. Pyongyang has yet to agree to a denuclearisation plan while Beijing is upgrading its military hardware to catch up with the US.

Pyongyang tested its first submarine-launched ballistic missiles in 2016. It is now developing nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines to revamp its outdated fleet.

At a ceremony at the Okpo Shipyard, Rear Admiral Yang Yong-mo, the commander of South Korea’s submarine force, described the 84m-long diesel-electric boat as a strategic asset that “will firmly defend our seas.” It will be deployed after a year of sea trials, and two more boats are planned by 2023.

The 3,000-tonne Dosan Ahn Chang-ho has a crew of 50, has six vertical missile launching tubes and can operate for 20 days without surfacing. Until now the country has relied on 1,200-tonne and 1,800-tonne submarines.

One defence source told the South China Morning Post that the boat could in theory hit military bases in China but that Seoul had played this down to avoid irritating Beijing.

Today South Korea and the US will begin their annual military exercises, which has drawn the usual condemnation from Pyongyang. In Beijing, Ri Ryong-nam, the North Korean ambassador to China, told the Global Times, a party newspaper, that the drills would be “unwelcome”. Pyongyang also marked the 76th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in the Second World War by seeking to strengthen its ties with Moscow. Kim Jong-un, the North’s leader, told President Putin that the friendship between the nations was “forged in blood in the struggle against the common enemy”.

Putin replied that the countries “cherish the memory of the service personnel of the Red Army and Korean patriots who dedicated their lives to the freedom of Korea”.

Lyneham Lad

17th Aug 2021, 11:51

In The Times this afternoon.
China is conducting a live-fire military exercise involving warships, anti-submarine aircraft and fighter jets near Taiwan in response to “‘provocations” by the US. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-steps-up-military-exercises-off-taiwan-after-us-provocations-rdjmgsgnz)

China is conducting a live-fire military exercise involving warships, anti-submarine aircraft and fighter jets near Taiwan in response to “‘provocations” by the US.

In an unusual move, at least two Chinese aircraft reportedly entered areas designated by Taiwan for its military use.

Hu Xijin, the influential editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a party-run newspaper, demanded that John Cornyn, a US senator, explain why he tweeted that there were 30,000 US troops deployed to Taiwan.

“If there are 30,000 US troops, or even fewer than this number, deployed in Taiwan, it is a severe matter,” Hu wrote in a commentary.

“These troops must be withdrawn immediately and unconditionally. The US government and Taiwanese authorities must apologise. Otherwise, we believe there will be an all-out war right away. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is certain to eliminate and expel US troops, liberate the province of Taiwan and solve the Taiwan issue once and for all.”

In a later tweet, Hu dismissed the possibility that Cornyn might have mistakenly quoted an outdated figure. “I think the senator is not confused, and he wants to test our response,” Hu tweeted. “My answer to him is war.”

The PLA exercises, taking place south of the island, were a “solemn response” to “external interference and provocations by Taiwan independence forces”, said Shi Yi, a colonel and spokesman for the eastern theatre command.

“Recently, the US and Taiwan have made a series of provocations, sending severely wrong signals, severely violating China’s sovereignty and severely harming the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait,” Shi said. “These have become the biggest source of instability [threatening] the security of the Taiwan Strait.”

The drills mark the latest military escalation (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invaded-says-deputy-pm-l7dnhdfn0) in the Taiwan Strait, where tensions have been building up for months, with China conducting war games and carrying out training exercises in a show of its determination to seize the island.

China considers the island to be part of its territory and has vowed to take it back, by force if necessary, to achieve national unity. However, the US has a security pact with Taiwan to supply the island with adequate military hardware (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-and-japan-ramp-up-military-exercises-in-south-china-sea-nrnwcspvm) and technology to deter mainland invasion.

In the face of rising threats from Beijing, Washington is deepening its ties with Taiwan, sending senior US officials there and donating coronavirus vaccines. The moves have irked Beijing, whose diplomats have warned their US counterparts that Taiwan is regarded as a matter of national sovereignty and is the most sensitive issue in US-China relations. The island broke away from the mainland in 1949 following a bloody civil war.

Last week reports surfaced that Taiwan and US coast guard forces had conducted joint exercises to the east of the island.

Taiwan denied there was any involvement of US vessels in the exercise but the two sides have set up a “Taiwan-US coast-guard work group” and last week agreed that it would meet regularly to co-ordinate on maritime issues of mutual concern and strengthen their abilities to respond to “regional maritime challenges”.

Chinese analysts, convinced that a joint exercise took place, called it a form of military co-operation and warned that it could pave the way for real joint exercises between Taiwanese and US military forces.

Following the reports, Ma Xiaoguang, a spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said that any “collusion between Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party and foreign forces was “playing with fire”.

The Chinese military said its exercises were necessary given the “security situation” in the Taiwan Strait.

“The eastern theatre command has the determination and the abilities to defeat all separatists activities,” Colonel Shi said. “It will firmly safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”

By late afternoon, Taiwanese media said a Y-8 anti-submarine plane had traversed an area set up for firing exercises at a Taiwanese missile base, and that a Chinese spy plane flew across a designated area for the Taiwanese military to conduct air drills.

Since last September Chinese air force planes have regularly breached Taiwan’s air defence identification zone but it was the first time they have entered areas designated by the island for its own military use.

henra

17th Aug 2021, 19:29

IF, and its a big IF - the littoral states around the S China sea equip with medium range shore to ship missiles the S China Sea starts to look like a pretty desperate dead-end for any navy coming from the north. Shallow, lots of islands and reefs and only very narrow choke points to get out to the the south
Indeed. A few hundred MLRS Systems with PrSM based around S China Sea in Philippines, Borneo, Vietnam and Taiwan and the PLAN would be sitting ducks. In such a hypothetical setting I would not expect a single Surface Combat Vessel to survive for more than a few hours.

etudiant

17th Aug 2021, 20:17

Lonewolf_50

18th Aug 2021, 00:22

Does that not cut both ways? Yes, depending on where the Chinese have positioned their assets.
What is the survive-ability of 7th fleet vessels under such circumstances? That depends on what they are doing and when, and who starts shooting first. Real life isn't a video game.

Prawn2king4

18th Aug 2021, 13:20

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202108/1231691.shtml

West Coast

18th Aug 2021, 16:48

Indeed. A few hundred MLRS Systems with PrSM based around S China Sea in Philippines, Borneo, Vietnam and Taiwan and the PLAN would be sitting ducks. In such a hypothetical setting I would not expect a single Surface Combat Vessel to survive for more than a few hours.

That presumes the PLAN sails into contested areas oblivious to the threat. Should hostilities kick off, they’ll do their best to mitigate the threat as part of their integrated operations plan, and to some degree they succeed in doing so. If they plan on using ferries to shuttle grunts across the straight in an area infested with submarines, they’ll accept losing a few ships to maintain control of the areas they claim.

Gnadenburg

18th Aug 2021, 22:34

Yes, this was my point about countries such as the Phillipines & Vietnam acquiring shore based anti-ship missiles. Sorting and targeting will require advanced military capabilities otherwise you may end up sinking a bunch of PLA "fishing boats". The PRsM will need quite advanced military capabilities such as F35's and space-based surveillance.

Area-denial across the Formosan Straits is a lot different to the South China Sea with Taiwan opting for shorter range shore based systems and mines.

etudiant

18th Aug 2021, 23:15

Afaik, Taiwan is fully on board with the PRC with respect to the 9-Dash line and the South China Sea being Chinese territory.
That somewhat complicates the scenario planning.

Asturias56

19th Aug 2021, 10:29

ORAC

19th Aug 2021, 11:37

AFAIK, Taiwan is fully on board with the PRC with respect to the 9-Dash line and the South China Sea being Chinese territory.
That somewhat complicates the scenario planning.
Let me make you aware….

https://amti.csis.org/taiwan-scs-policy-evolution/

https://www.e-ir.info/2021/01/16/the-taiwan-factor-in-the-clarification-of-chinas-u-shaped-line/

Lyneham Lad

19th Aug 2021, 16:29

In The Times.
Another turn on the ratchet...
China is to build an airport on reclaimed land in the contested Taiwan Strait, amid rising tensions and near-constant drills by its military forces. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-runway-in-the-taiwan-strait-puts-beijings-jets-ever-closer-to-taiwan-3b6ftw5r9)
The £340 million project would be between the isles of Dasha and Xiaosha near Pingtan island (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/beijing-s-bridge-to-taiwan-moves-a-step-closer-23kjpdtsp) — at the closest possible point from the mainland to Taiwan and its capital Taipei.

The plan was disclosed a day after the Chinese military began its latest round of live-fire war games (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-video-shows-ballistic-missile-blitz-on-taiwan-fv7xl3xtf) involving ships, anti-submarine aircraft and fighter jets near Taiwan. The manoeuvres were described as a response to “provocations” by the US over the independently governed island that Beijing regards as its sovereign territory to be reclaimed by force if necessary.

Analysts said that the drills by China’s eastern command were to show that it could prevent American troops from coming to Taiwan’s aid if Beijing decided to invade (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-would-defend-taiwan-if-china-invaded-says-deputy-pm-l7dnhdfn0).

The state-run Global Times reported that the airport would be a “major aviation and logistics hub with access to Taiwan”. It said that it would be focused on tourism and would build links between Taiwan and Fujian, the southeastern province. The project comes after a build-up of military infrastructure on the mainland.

China has previously used reclamation techniques to build a series of fortified islets in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. Satellite images this year showed that China had already expanded runways at two military air bases in Longtian and Huian, about 170 miles from Taipei. A military aircraft would take seven minutes to reach the capital city from either base, or even less from the new airport.

Two Chinese aircraft were this week reported to have entered areas designated by Taiwan for its military use. Senior Colonel Shi Yi, a spokesman for the Chinese forces, said that the missions were a “solemn response” to “external interference and provocations by Taiwan independence forces”.

Washington, which has a security pact with Taipei, has further angered Beijing by deepening its ties with the island. The Biden administration this month approved its first arms sale to Taiwan, with 40 advanced howitzer artillery systems in a $750 million deal.

Last week, a joint coast guard working group between Taiwan and the US agreed to meet regularly to co-ordinate responses to “maritime challenges”, a move seen by Beijing as paving the way for military co-operation.

Beijing has vowed to achieve “national unity” by 2050 and take over Taiwan, which broke away from the mainland in 1949 after the civil war.

The US and China are also locked in a dispute over the South China Sea, which Beijing has militarised with a series of bases and considers to be almost exclusively its own territory, despite claims from other countries.

In its pivot to Asia, the Royal Navy has sent its flagship, the aircraft carrier HMS Queen Elizabeth, on “freedom of navigation” patrols in the region, provoking warnings that it would face retaliation if it encroached on Chinese territorial waters.

Beijing has announced several large infrastructure deals to link the mainland to the island, all of which have been rejected by Taipei.

Taiwan has been included in China’s latest national transportation network plan, which proposes a high-speed railway between Fuzhou, the provincial capital of Fujian, and Taipei, possibly by 2035. The Chinese also want to build a motorway connecting Beijing to Taipei.

As part of the proposal, China intends to build a tunnel from Pingtan to the coast of Taiwan, though its feasibility has been questioned. A bridge to Pingtan, which has a population of about 420,000, was completed in 2019. An experimental zone was set up on the island county in 2009 to explore models of cross-strait co-operation.

“The island of Pingtan is the closest to Taiwan, with only 68 nautical miles to Taiwan’s Hsinchu,” the state-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission said. “As the nexus of the planned Beijing-Taipei Highway, it’s an important passage to Taiwan in the long-term plan and it will play a positive role in connecting the infrastructure across the strait.”

The ten-mile bridge, designated as part of the Beijing-Taipei Highway, was opened to traffic last year, and has a six-lane motorway on the upper level and tracks for high-speed trains on its lower deck.

Beijing is also considering building a sea tunnel between Pingtai, in the western Guangdong province, and Hsinchu, in northern Taiwan, to accommodate a high-speed railway line and a motorway. No immediate plans for construction have been disclosed.

Taiwan has made no official statement on its inclusion in China’s infrastructure plans. Taiwan News, an online site, said that the island’s government had “previously rejected attempts to aggressively entwine it into the infrastructure of a hostile foreign power”.

etudiant

19th Aug 2021, 16:42

Let me make you aware….

https://amti.csis.org/taiwan-scs-policy-evolution/

https://www.e-ir.info/2021/01/16/the-taiwan-factor-in-the-clarification-of-chinas-u-shaped-line/

Thank you so much, ORAC, for these links.
They both backstop the Chinese narrative as well as the Taiwanese course corrections.
Frankly, imho it leaves the law pretty murky.
The most plausible forecast is that China will deploy overwhelming military force over the coming years to cement its claims.
That is what is clearly happening already, but China won't have the assets in place to really make it stick for a few years yet.

Gnadenburg

19th Aug 2021, 22:49

". Sorting and targeting will require advanced military capabilities otherwise you may end up sinking a bunch of PLA "fishing boats".

I don't think most SE Asian countries care about the difference - especially if they see the Chinese coming mob handed

That's a perfect political and military scenario for the PLA. Finite supply of missiles absorbed by their sophisticated fishing boat militia. Dead Chinese fisherman in the South China Sea and they can take it any which way they want. I don't think Western powers would risk conflict over a "fishing dispute". China's Little Blue Men are the likely spark for escalation of the current state of play.

Lyneham Lad

20th Aug 2021, 13:13

In The Times.
Japan increases military budget over territorial threats. (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-increases-military-budget-over-territorial-threats-mkf2qsxw3)

Japan is planning to spend a record £36 billion on its military next year as it seeks to defend its territory against threats from China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/china?page=1), North Korea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/north-korea?page=1) and Russia (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/russia?page=1).

Increased funds will help to buy the US-made F-35A and F-35B stealth fighters. The F-35B is capable of short take-off and vertical landing, indispensable on the Nansei island chain that stretches from Okinawa towards Taiwan, where there are few full-length runways.

Funds will also be requested to equip new destroyers with the Aegis missile interceptor system to counter potential threats from North Korea. Japan (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/japan?page=1) announced last year that it was scrapping a planned order of Lockheed Martin’s land-based Aegis Ashore, though is still considering its introduction, according to military sources.

There are also expected to be upgrades to missiles and electronic systems on F-15 jets, the main combat aircraft of the Air Self-Defence Force.

The defence ministry is also planning to invest around £2 billion in developing a system to shoot down military drones with lasers or microwaves. Spending is also expected to be increased in areas such as military AI, hypersonic weapons and quantum technology.

The Nansei island chain includes the uninhabited Senkaku Islands, to which China has laid claim. China has been regularly sending naval ships on exercises (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-builds-new-long-range-missile-in-face-of-growing-chinese-threat-d5c3h6ds8) in the waters around the disputed islets since the Tokyo metropolitan government bought them from a private owner in 2012.

In the Defence of Japan 2021 white paper released in July, the government for the first time stated explicitly (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-builds-up-military-to-meet-chinese-threat-2xx95bjrp) that “Taiwan is important for Japan’s security and the stability of the international community”, drawing an angry response from Beijing. There are fears in Japan’s defence community that if China did invade Taiwan then nearby Okinawa would be its next target.

The spending is likely to take Japan’s defence budget over the 1 per cent of GDP guideline it set in 1976. This would only be the second time it had exceeded the 1 per cent target, the first being in 2009-10 when GDP contracted sharply due to the global financial crisis.

Under the Japanese constitution, the nation is forbidden from possessing first-strike capabilities, but is planning to beef up its offensive missile systems.
In addition to the potential dangers of China and North Korea, Russia carried out military exercises in June on islands near Hokkaido that it seized at the end of the Second World War, leading Japan to scramble fighters and lodge a protest with the Russian embassy in Tokyo.

fitliker

20th Aug 2021, 13:32

https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h01019/
Japan ranks ninth in Global military spending . According to their numbers that they are willing to share .

havoc

31st Aug 2021, 21:15

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-strengthens-claims-over-disputed-waters-with-new-maritime-law-against-foreign-ships/ar-AANW24k?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

China will begin requiring foreign vessels to report their call signs and cargo before sailing into its "territorial sea"—a term it applies to all the islands it claims in the South China Sea and beyond.

The new regulation under China's Maritime Traffic Safety Law will come into effect on September 1, according to a notice published last Friday by the country's Maritime Safety Administration.

Observers say the move could see further attempts by Beijing to control the civilian and military traffic around its claimed territories, which include hundreds of South China Sea features, but also extend to Taiwan, its outlying islands and the Japan-controlled Senkaku island chain in the East China Sea.

The reporting rule applies to submersibles, nuclear vessels, ships carrying radioactive materials as well as vessels transporting "toxic and harmful substances" including oil, chemicals and liquefied gas, China's maritime authority said.

An additional, more ambiguous article applies to "other vessels that may endanger maritime traffic safety," a line that could be stretched to include all unwelcome foreign vessels, especially of a military nature.

Starting from Wednesday, foreign ships will be required to volunteer their name, call sign, current position, destination and cargo, among other items of information. "In case the vessel fails to report as required," the notice says, "the maritime administration will deal with it according to relevant laws, regulations, rules and provisions."

The announcement doesn't clarify whether this would entail a warning, a forceful expulsion or other action. It remains unclear how China plans to enforce the regulation, and how far it will go with Chinese-claimed islands currently administered by other states.

As defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a territorial sea extends up to 12 nautical miles from the baseline of a coastal state. Foreign vessels—both civilian and military—are permitted innocent passage through the waters, according to the law ratified by China and recognized by the United States.

China Protests U.S. Operations
The Chinese government's claims to territorial waters extend to contested features such as the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. China frequently protests the U.S. Navy's freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) around the archipelago, which is also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.

During its latest FONOP around the China-controlled islands on July 12, the U.S. 7th Fleet said: "Under international law as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention, the ships of all States—including their warships—enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea. The unilateral imposition of any authorization or advance-notification requirement for innocent passage is not permitted by international law."

China's new regulation isn't expected to affect U.S. Navy operations in the region. Newsweek has sought further clarification from the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

In interviews following the announcement, Chinese commentator Song Zhongping appeared to confirm Beijing's attempts to bend UNCLOS norms.

The new regulation "showcases China's determination to regulate the foreign vessels' right of use within the country's territorial waters, which should be based on proper identification," he said in a Sunday report by Chinese Communist Party tabloid the Global Times.

He added: "If the vessel is military and trespassing in China's territorial waters without advance notice, it will be considered as serious provocation, and the Chinese military will take over to dispel or take even stronger measures to punish the invaders."

In a South China Morning Post report on Monday, Song remarked on the intended reach of the amendment: "The new regulation applies to China's territorial waters—including the East China Sea, the South China Sea and China's islands and reefs—to regulate China's management of those territorial waters."

"Foreign vessels must report and abide by our laws and regulations, to safeguard national sovereignty and security," he was quoted as saying.

During a visit to Southeast Asia last week, Vice President Kamala Harris told officials in Hanoi on Wednesday: "We need to find ways to pressure and raise the pressure, frankly, on Beijing to abide by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, and to challenge its bullying and excessive maritime claims."

While speaking in Singapore the day before, she accused China of coercion and intimidation against other South China Sea littoral states.

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ORAC

14th Sep 2021, 21:08

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-sends-warships-to-american-waters-off-alaska-fckh6jh22

China sends warships to Alaska

China dispatched a task force of warships led by the pride of Beijing’s fleet to patrol waters off Alaska, escalating its rivalry with the United States for maritime dominance.

Two guided missile destroyers, believed to be Type 055 Nanchang and Type 052D Guiyang vessels, were joined by a surveillance ship and a resupply vessel in a fleet that sailed into the US exclusive economic zone off the Aleutian Island chain.

The expedition was revealed by the US military’s Defence Visual Information Distribution Service website. It published images of the US coastguard “shadowing” the Chinese vessels as they travelled through US waters.

The article was later removed, prompting speculation in Beijing that it had been taken down because the incursion into US waters represented a “loss of face” for Washington.

One image showed Captain Tim Brown, commanding officer of the US coastguard vessel, the Bertholf, as he communicated with “a Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy ship operating as part of a four-ship task force”. It said interactions between US and Chinese warships on August 29 and August 30 had been “safe and professional”.

However, the development was an escalation in tensions between the two superpowers only a week after Hu Xijin, editor of the main state media outlet, the Global Times, predicted that China would soon send a fleet towards America.

Responding to so-called freedom of navigation exercises by the US in the South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/nothing-will-stop-us-sailing-in-south-china-sea-us-warns-china-gjwng2gnk) last month, Xijin said: “Hopefully when Chinese warships pass through the Caribbean Sea or show up near Hawaii and Guam one day, the US will uphold the same standard of freedom of navigation. That day will come soon.”

Xijin added today that the exercises near Alaska had started an era of a “bigger maritime rivalry between China and the US”. He said: “The era when the US ships one-sidedly declare ‘freedom of navigation’ in China’s near seas will be replaced by a new era in which Chinese and US battleships will reach near each other’s territorial seas.

“There will be a transition of several decades, but eventually China and the US, under brand-new conditions and through comparisons, will reach a rule of equity to ensure maritime safety.”

The Nanchang is the pride of the Chinese fleet. It was seen leading the flotilla as it sailed east through the Soya Strait, off Japan, on August 24. According to Beijing, that had been to “send a warning to Japanese right-wing forces and militarists” after Yoshihide Suga, the Japanese prime minister, sent an offering to the Yasukuni Shrine (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-tranquillity-of-yasukuni-shrine-repeats-old-lie-of-conflict-w7ssxg2bc), which honoured war criminals from the Second World War, angering China.

As it made its way to Alaska, state media said the flotilla was “fully capable of safeguarding national sovereignty and territorial integrity” in the face of “interfering foreign forces”. Its 112 missile silos make it “one of the world’s most powerful warships, if not the most powerful”, according to Beijing…..

Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military expert, told the Global Timesthat the US military and coastguard were “wary of the presence of Chinese warships close to the country, particularly advanced destroyers like the Type 055”.

“Warships from the US have been making frequent provocations near China in the name of freedom of navigation and now it might feel a little uncomfortable to see Chinese warships on its doorstep,” Wei said, adding that “this is a countermeasure and a signal against the US actions of hegemony”.

Beijing speculated that the Washington could feel it had “lost face by having Chinese warships sailing near it, taking some of its own medicine of freedom of navigation”……

etudiant

14th Sep 2021, 23:48

[QUOTE=havoc;11104321]https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-strengthens-claims-over-disputed-waters-with-new-maritime-law-against-foreign-ships/ar-AANW24k?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531

China will begin requiring foreign vessels to report their call signs and cargo before sailing into its "territorial sea"—a term it applies to all the islands it claims in the South China Sea and beyond.

The new regulation under China's Maritime Traffic Safety Law will come into effect on September 1, according to a notice published last Friday by the country's Maritime Safety Administration.

Observers say the move could see further attempts by Beijing to control the civilian and military traffic around its claimed territories, which include hundreds of South China Sea features, but also extend to Taiwan, its outlying islands and the Japan-controlled Senkaku island chain in the East China Sea.

The reporting rule applies to submersibles, nuclear vessels, ships carrying radioactive materials as well as vessels transporting "toxic and harmful substances" including oil, chemicals and liquefied gas, China's maritime authority said.

An additional, more ambiguous article applies to "other vessels that may endanger maritime traffic safety," a line that could be stretched to include all unwelcome foreign vessels, especially of a military nature.

Starting from Wednesday, foreign ships will be required to volunteer their name, call sign, current position, destination and cargo, among other items of information. "In case the vessel fails to report as required," the notice says, "the maritime administration will deal with it according to relevant laws, regulations, rules and provisions."

The announcement doesn't clarify whether this would entail a warning, a forceful expulsion or other action. It remains unclear how China plans to enforce the regulation, and how far it will go with Chinese-claimed islands currently administered by other states.

As defined by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), a territorial sea extends up to 12 nautical miles from the baseline of a coastal state. Foreign vessels—both civilian and military—are permitted innocent passage through the waters, according to the law ratified by China and recognized by the United States.

China Protests U.S. Operations
The Chinese government's claims to territorial waters extend to contested features such as the Paracel Islands in the South China Sea. China frequently protests the U.S. Navy's freedom of navigation operations (FONOPs) around the archipelago, which is also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan.

During its latest FONOP around the China-controlled islands on July 12, the U.S. 7th Fleet said: "Under international law as reflected in the Law of the Sea Convention, the ships of all States—including their warships—enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea. The unilateral imposition of any authorization or advance-notification requirement for innocent passage is not permitted by international law."

China's new regulation isn't expected to affect U.S. Navy operations in the region. Newsweek has sought further clarification from the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

In interviews following the announcement, Chinese commentator Song Zhongping appeared to confirm Beijing's attempts to bend UNCLOS norms.

The new regulation "showcases China's determination to regulate the foreign vessels' right of use within the country's territorial waters, which should be based on proper identification," he said in a Sunday report by Chinese Communist Party tabloid the Global Times.
/QUOTE]

Just am in awe of the Chinese skill at salami slicing. Obviously this ID requirement can be easily leveraged, making it a precondition for docking in China or for taking cargo or crew to or from China.
Commercial operators will kowtow immediately, as it is costless to do so. The full price will be collected later, but that is not the issue for them.

tartare

15th Sep 2021, 06:30

Slightly off topic - but have we noticed reportage that Mark Milley was so worried about the orange fool pushing the button just before the election, and after the capitol riot, that he twice called his counterpart in Beijing to assure the Chinese the US wouldn't attack.
Being referred to as pulling a Schlesinger...!

beardy

15th Sep 2021, 07:46

Asturias56

15th Sep 2021, 08:06

See the PLA (N) has been poking around Alaska.............

ORAC

20th Sep 2021, 12:51

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/20/japan-urges-europe-to-speak-out-against-chinas-military-expansion

Japan urges Europe to speak out against China’s military expansion

Japan has urged European countries to speak out against China’s aggression, warning that the international community must bolster deterrence efforts against Beijing’s military and territorial expansion amid a growing risk of a hot conflict.

In an interview with the Guardian, Japan’s defence minister, Nobuo Kishi, said China (https://www.theguardian.com/world/china) had become increasingly powerful politically, economically and militarily and was “attempting to use its power to unilaterally change the status quo in the East and South China Seas”, which are crucial to global shipping and include waters and islands claimed by several other nations.

Tokyo had “strong concerns in regards to the safety and security of not only our own country and the region but for the global community”, Kishi warned. “China is strengthening its military power both in terms of quantity and quality, and rapidly improving its operational capability,” he said.

Kishi’s comments are a strong signal of the rising international concern over China’s military ambitions in disputed regions like the South and East China Sea (https://www.theguardian.com/world/south-china-sea), the Indian border (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/18/tensions-remain-high-as-hopes-dashed-for-breakthrough-in-china-and-india-stalemate), and in particular Taiwan (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/21/tension-haunts-tiny-taiwanese-isles-that-live-in-fear-of-war-with-china). His remarks were echoed by senior figures on the island, with Taiwan’s former head of navy and deputy defence minister also warning that more deterrence was needed.

With China ratcheting up military activity in the region, experts and global military figures have also warned that small confrontations or maritime accidents could quickly escalate into a full-blown conflict…..

ORAC

23rd Sep 2021, 07:55

Recalling how Bellingcat tracked the movement of Russian troops in Ukraine and elsewhere I have to wonder if the China could also activate GPS tracking and other apps remotely.

Lesson to learn, every Chinese gadget you carry could be or is a spy. Should the military be banned from using and/or carrying Chinese made phones and tablets in uniform and on deployment?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lithuania-orders-civil-servants-to-hang-up-chinese-smartphones-over-spyware-fears-30vm86xnw

Lithuania tells civil servants to ditch Chinese phones over spyware fears

Lithuania has told its civil servants to jettison their Chinese-made smartphones after experts found they contained automatic censorship software and other security flaws.

One popular handset from Xiaomi, a Chinese firm that sells more of the devices in the European Union than any other manufacturer (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-s-xiaomi-overtakes-apple-in-smartphone-race-mn039fwg0), was discovered to be capable of detecting and blanking out the terms “Free Tibet”, “democratic movement” and “Long live Taiwan’s independence”.

The phone also turned out to be sending information about its owners’ activities, including how long they spent using different apps, to a proprietary server in Singapore, beyond the reach of the EU’s strict data laws…..

The tiny Baltic state, with fewer than 3 million people, has taken a defiantly assertive stance against China in recent months.…

The smartphone study, published this week by the Lithuanian defence ministry’s cybersecurity centre, is likely to exacerbate the conflict.There are already security concerns (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/huaweis-link-to-chinese-state-agencies-high-to-certain-says-security-report-b0nn82h79) over the involvement of Chinese telecommunications firms such as Huawei in building Europe’s next-generation 5G mobile phone networks.

Abukevicius, 40, said the report would probably prompt his government to ban other Chinese-made devices from its systems…..

The researchers analysed three bestselling devices from Xiaomi, Huawei and OnePlus, each of which has a substantial share of the EU’s smartphone sales.

They found a total of ten “instances of increased cybersecurity risk”. The Xiaomi Mi 10T phone had a built-in blacklist running to 449 Chinese phrases for political and religious groups and movements, ranging from “independence of [inner] Mongolia” to Voice of America, a US government broadcaster.

These terms could be automatically censored on messaging and web browsing apps, effectively blocking users from looking up sensitive subjects. The function had been switched off in the EU but could be reactivated remotely at any time, potentially “jeopardising free access to information and limiting its accessibility”, according to the report.

Abukevicius said the blacklist was updated every few days and was capable of being expanded to include words from western languages.

The report also said that Huawei’s mobile app store directed smartphone users to other platforms rife with fake apps that acted as a cover for viruses and spyware. No vulnerabilities were identified in the OnePlus phone…..

ORAC

25th Sep 2021, 06:51

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/quad-india-japan-us-australia-b1926471.html

In the eyes of Beijing, the Quad poses a more menacing threat than Aukus

Asturias56

25th Sep 2021, 07:58

"Lesson to learn, every Chinese gadget you carry could be or is a spy"

probably subcontracted the work to the Israelis who seem to be able ot bug everyone anywhere

Lyneham Lad

28th Sep 2021, 16:51

Article plus photos in The Times this afternoon.
China unveils new drones in race for air superiority (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f3b55218-2042-11ec-a1fd-37d9030e4d65?shareToken=e8445b3690190e931982b9c00901ee30)

CH-6 drone - It can fly for 20 hours at an altitude of 50,000 ft, menacing military targets across the Pacific with a barrage of missiles or snoop on American manoeuvres with the latest surveillance equipment.

With a speed of 450mph and a range of about 9,000 miles, China’s large CH-6 drone represents a new development in its drive to lead the world in production of unmanned vehicles to fight future air wars.

It was among a number of new technologies unveiled at China’s biggest air show, in the southern city of Zhuhai today.

The CH-6 drone, built by the China Academy of Aerospace Science, a subsidiary of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, was unveiled with the WZ-7 high-altitude drone, another unmanned plane, which China said was designed for “border reconnaissance and maritime patrol”.

Click the link for full article etc.

henra

28th Sep 2021, 18:49

China unveils new drones in race for air superiority (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f3b55218-2042-11ec-a1fd-37d9030e4d65?shareToken=e8445b3690190e931982b9c00901ee30)

Air superiority?
Dunno. That thing looks neither particluarly stealth, fast nor maneuverable. If un- opposed would be a threat to a Surface vessel but for any Fighter Aircraft this would be turkey shoot.

etudiant

29th Sep 2021, 00:14

Air superiority?
Dunno. That thing looks neither particluarly stealth, fast nor maneuverable. If un- opposed would be a threat to a Surface vessel but for any Fighter Aircraft this would be turkey shoot.

Don't pay any attention to the headline, it was chosen to attract clicks rather than to summarize the article, which is actually quite factual.

etudiant

29th Sep 2021, 00:28

Over nine years in the making . When Bruce Lee said to fight like Water a term used by Jackie Chan as well . They may have been channeling the same forces that made the Grand Canyon .
The complete opposite of Blitztkreig , the water strategy may prove to be very effective . Who could have predicted a fleet of fishing vessels would be able to dominate the Oceans of the world and displace so many local fishermen ?

China has a very impressive military tradition,, unusual in that it explicitly harnesses civil economics as part of military strategy. By gradually becoming the workshop of the world, China is making itself invulnerable to foreign military strikes.
Bombing China is tantamount to bombing ones own supply line, rarely a sound strategy.. We can only hope they continue to accept our IOUs ten years from now.

Lookleft

29th Sep 2021, 23:41

I can't remember which German General made this statement but it applies in this circumstance: "Our tanks are worth ten of theirs..but they always have eleven" Yes the Russians had quantity but a lot of that quantity was supplied by the Americans especially trucks. It also included a significant amount of aluminum. The last time an Asian military dictatorship sought to build an empire in the Pacific they were comprehensively defeated by America's industrial output, a factor Yamamoto foreshadowed. AFAIK the CCP has the industry but they rely on externally sourced raw materials.

Big Pistons Forever

30th Sep 2021, 17:16

The Communist Party Of China has an impossible problem. Their pact with Chinese citizens is a promise of steadily increasing individual wealth in return for unquestioning obedience to the Communist Party. The problem is that most of the low hanging economic fruit has already been picked. Maintaining the traditional 6 to 9 % annual economic growth is becoming increasing more difficult and has resulted in what is in effect state sanctioned ponzi schemes, particularly in the housing sector, like Evergrande. When these fail many individual Chinese are directly affected.

The result is an inevitable loss of trust in the government. This sentiment is the Communist Parties greatest nightmare. Unfortunately the standard reaction for a dictatorship that feels its power is slipping is to manufacture a foreign crises and then war to redirect the populations attention. For this reason I now thing an invasion of Taiwan is a given and the only question is when it will happen.

ORAC

30th Sep 2021, 19:18

And yet another new jet….

Looks like, as a carrier aircraft, it requires the use of a catapult and cable recovery. Production timeframe would seem t9 fit with being intended for use in CVA03 onwards…

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/09/29/china-preps-rollout-of-a-new-carrier-based-fighter-jet/

China preps rollout of a new carrier-based fighter jet

tartare

1st Oct 2021, 05:05

There is a fundamental issue here though.
You're much less likely to innovate, take quantum leap risks and achieve the breakthroughs that put you ahead of your opponents when you run the risk of extreme sanctions and live under significant risk.
I am assuming even the most valued minds in the Chinese military industrial complex have to tread very, very carefully less they feel the wrath of Xi or the party.
Skunks and Phantoms and others don't face the same threats their peers do in the PRC.
A strategy based on IP theft and a culture of fear and suppression is inimical to innovation... and that's delaying them coming up the curve.
All of these new concepts appear pale imitations of western technology.
Chinese engines are ****e, platforms are not truly stealthy, carrier jets can't carry any meaningful payload - the list goes on.
They're very good at jamming from what I understand - and have formidable resources in that respect - enough to really concern the West (as opposed to what is said publicly).
But very little else.

ORAC

1st Oct 2021, 21:44

Asturias56

2nd Oct 2021, 08:02

Its a point I've made a few times - the window for expansionism is closing fast as their population ages and the replacement ratio falls - they'll HAVE to spend more on care and health

The One Child policy is finally coming home to roost

SWBKCB

2nd Oct 2021, 08:05

Taiwan says record 38 Chinese planes entered defence zone (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58771369)

henra

2nd Oct 2021, 08:11

China's population could HALVE within 45 years: Country's birth rate hits 1.3 and researchers say demographic decline has been severely underestimated
Probably a bit exaggerated but this trend could be seen coming since a few years. Explosion of housing costs is a huge problem and a double one at that. It drives people to have fewer children and it creates an economic bubble without real value behind. Yet- in most countries high housing prices are considered desirable by the governments since it technically inflates econmic figures of a Country (and the esteemed and well connected elites are profiting the most). Another big problem seems to be high workload. Especially academic people are working their ar*e off. It is well known that people who are strained by their work are likely to have less/no children.
Funnily China is following very closely in the footsteps -the good and the bad- of Western societies while it always emphasizes its difference to them.
That said I would not expect China to collapse in the near future but they might be shaken more often by societal earthquakes in the upcoming decades. Evergrande could be a first prequake.

Asturias56

3rd Oct 2021, 07:42

"Funnily China is following very closely in the footsteps -the good and the bad- of Western societies while it always emphasizes its difference to them"

because of course there is no other proven model that offers a cat in hells chance of achieving progress. The Chinese have to emphasise the differences because if they don't they think people will want ALL the aspects of the Western model - like a vote and a voice

ORAC

4th Oct 2021, 17:23

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taipei-warns-of-war-as-china-steps-up-harassment-of-tawian-s66cgzw8l

Taipei Warns of War

China dispatched a record number of fighter jets and bombers to Taiwan today as days of sustained military harassment culminated in warnings of war from Taipei…..

The campaign of harassment (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/beijing-military-flights-over-taiwan-condemned-as-blatant-aggression-ds2mx2vzm) comes as Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s foreign minister, warned of a possible war with the mainland. “The defence of Taiwan is in our own hands, and we are absolutely committed to that,” he told ABC’s China Tonight programme in Australia.

“If China is going to launch a war against Taiwan we will fight to the end, and that is our commitment,” he added. “I’m sure that if China is going to launch an attack against Taiwan, I think they are going to suffer tremendously as well.”….

West Coast

4th Oct 2021, 20:33

I wonder the appetite in Taiwan for street to street fighting? Is a HK style of diminishing rights preferable to a mounting an insurgency?

Has the temperature been taken of the man in the street? Don’t leap for the keyboard Asturias, looking for local knowledge, if such exists.

ORAC

4th Oct 2021, 22:18

Well, having watched Hong Kong, they know the value that can be given to Beijing promises - so it is a choice of going down fighting and a burnt earth defence destroying chip plants and hi-tech factories or just giving in. And it doesn’t sound like the latter.

Not sure how much Chinese production depends on hi-tech imports from Taiwan - but an invasion could be a Pyrrhic victory…

etudiant

4th Oct 2021, 23:45

China realises its running out of time to achieve its ambitions. The half life of empires has been having for the last millennia - China’s could be over before it’s begun….

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10048877/Chinas-population-HALVE-45-years-researchers-warn.html

China's population could HALVE within 45 years: Country's birth rate hits 1.3 and researchers say demographic decline has been severely underestimated
Not different from the situation in Taiwan, Japan, S Korea, Thailand etc. They all have collapsing birth rates,(Taiwan's is less than a fifth of the 1950 rate).
So China may have fewer troops by 2050, but those will have fewer opponents.

Asturias56

5th Oct 2021, 07:38

Ah but the percentage fall is bigger in China - and the PRC currently has a much worse level of social provision for the old compared to the other countries. They will have to divert a larger amount of their budget to this in future than any of the others. Some of that money will have to come from the military budget - you can see the effect clearly in W Europe over the last 125 years or so - social spending up, defence spending down

Lyneham Lad

5th Oct 2021, 14:49

More posturing from Beijing. (The Times article & photos)

Beijing warns of war as record number of jets enter Taiwan’s air defence zone (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3b2cbe06-25d4-11ec-9d7f-240ccd0a3a50?shareToken=acf38f8ca9ecbdec882630dd5b981cf4)

China has warned that “war may be triggered at any time” with Taiwan after it deployed a record number of fighter jets into the self-governing island’s air identification zone.

The government in Beijing sent 56 military aircraft, including 38 J-16 fighter jets, into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, amounting to 149 flights this month. This has raised concerns that tensions in the region could escalate and turn into a military conflict (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taipei-warns-of-war-as-china-steps-up-harassment-of-tawian-s66cgzw8l).

The mass incursion yesterday coincided with a joint drill by the United States and its allies in the Philippine Sea, where HMS Queen Elizabeth was spotted with two US aircraft carriers. The British aircraft carrier later sailed through the Bashi Channel to enter the tense and disputed waters of the South China Sea.

The number of the sorties by the Chinese military was the highest since Beijing began such operations in September last year. Taiwan’s president has warned of catastrophic consequences if the island falls to China, which claims the island as its own.

An editorial in the Global Times, one of the most excitable and nationalistic of the Chinese state-owned newspapers, said: “The situation across the Taiwan Straits has almost lost any room for manoeuvre, teetering on the edge of a face-off, creating a sense of urgency that the war may be triggered at any time.

“The secessionist forces on the island will never be allowed to secede Taiwan from China … and the island will not be allowed to act as an outpost of the US’s strategic containment against China … If the US and [Taiwan] do not take the initiative to reverse the current situation, the Chinese mainland’s military punishment for ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist forces will eventually be triggered.” It added: “Time will prove that this warning is not just a verbal threat.”

Click the link for the rest of the article and photos/maps.

Asturias56

6th Oct 2021, 09:01

National Day on both sides

ORAC

7th Oct 2021, 12:08

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10068645/China-real-imminent-threat-Taiwan-diplomat-warns.html

China is a 'real and imminent threat' to Taiwan, America's top diplomat to the island warns

tartare

7th Oct 2021, 22:11

Crazy Ivan - or the Chinese equivalent?
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42669/one-of-the-navys-prized-seawolf-class-submarines-has-suffered-an-underwater-collision

"An official who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorized to speak on the record said that the area’s topography at the time did not indicate there was a land mass in front of the boat," Military Times reported.

Lookleft

7th Oct 2021, 23:14

They didn't order a lighthouse to get out of its way did they?

tartare

7th Oct 2021, 23:52

...and with the caveat that it is the Guardian - this is interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/taiwan-us-military-trainers-china

etudiant

8th Oct 2021, 00:58

...and with the caveat that it is the Guardian - this is interesting:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/07/taiwan-us-military-trainers-china

Considering that the US agreed with Beijing that Taiwan was part of China as part of Nixon's China initiative back in the 1970s, I don';t see how the US has a legal leg to stand on in this conflict.
Would the US take it kindly if China offered military aid to Hawaii to help the island break free of Washington's oppression?

Buster Hyman

8th Oct 2021, 02:12

Considering that the US agreed with Beijing that Taiwan was part of China as part of Nixon's China initiative back in the 1970s, I don';t see how the US has a legal leg to stand on in this conflict.
Would the US take it kindly if China offered military aid to Hawaii to help the island break free of Washington's oppression?
Unless they mean that Taiwan is a part of China & it's just a matter of time until they're reunited under Taipei's rule... :p

megan

8th Oct 2021, 07:18

When mainland China last had control over Taiwan, 1683 to 1895, the Japanese kicked their butts out, after WWII Japan lost possession, I say we flip a coin to see if we give it back to Japan or divvy it up between the winners of WWII. Lost in all the argy bargy is the native population, bit like the American Indian and Australian Aborigine.

Fareastdriver

8th Oct 2021, 07:42

Next in line to the native Taiwanese are the Dutch.

tartare

8th Oct 2021, 07:45

So let's war game this.
Been having a read around Taiwan, all the issues etc.
The Taiwan Strait is only 50 metres deep in most places.
China would have to have anything from a 3 to 1 troop advantage, to 5 to 1 advantage (mountainous terrain) in manpower numbers to be successful in invading - according to standard military strategic doctrine.
At the upper end of numbers, that's 1.5 million soldiers in an amphibious landing and airdrops.
To carry them there, it would need to mobilise a massive civilian maritime fleet, as well as it's navy and it's Air Force.
There are only a few key beaches on the west coast where you could conduct amphibious landings - and the east is mostly rocky cliffs.
Chinese leaked maps show them invading from the south - but similar problems.
If they were really going to swarm across from the mainland - you'd see them coming months in advance and from miles off - and it would be an absolute turkey shoot to pick them off - suicide mission.
This is not going to be a repeat D-day in any sense of the word.
Their first step would probably be area access area denial right out to Okinawa and Guam - and that would be the sign it was game on.
Or would there be an incremental salami slicing series of targeted missile strikes over a series of months - just enough to soften Taiwan up - but not quite enough to provoke an Allied response.
Boiling the frog strategy - so to speak.
How do you all think it might play out?

rattman

8th Oct 2021, 09:43

Also china's strength lies in its army, I also believe they will a spoiling attacks into south korea either with or without NK permission in an attempt to be somewhat a diversion for operations against taiwan.

India could also be drawn in the same way. India vs pakistan with chinese forces. Not in so much attempt to take land but to disrupt the western forces response to a taiwan attack

tartare

9th Oct 2021, 01:01

The more one reads - there's some fascinating stuff going on in the subsea warfare domain.
Didn't realise that an AIM-9X has been successfully fired from a submerged sub.
Done a while back - and the concept has now gone black.
Watch out ASW helicopters and aircraft!

etudiant

9th Oct 2021, 01:06

Unless they mean that Taiwan is a part of China & it's just a matter of time until they're reunited under Taipei's rule... :p

That dream may have still been alive in Taipei.
I've no idea whether the Nixon administration allowed Taipei any say in the negotiations, but Taiwan did have a solid set of supporters in Washington

Buster Hyman

9th Oct 2021, 02:19

That dream may have still been alive in Taipei.
I've no idea whether the Nixon administration allowed Taipei any say in the negotiations, but Taiwan did have a solid set of supporters in Washington
I spent a little bit of time in TPE back in the'90's & most of the people I spoke to back then were all in favour of reunification. Perhaps they were all below 30 at the time & didn't have memories like the older generation, but it seems to me that the CCP missed out on a peaceful solution back then. In fairness, it wasn't a large pool of opinion of course.

Fareastdriver

9th Oct 2021, 09:02

China's industrial explosion in the 80s and 90s was only possible because of the number of Taiwanese who came to China to train the local population.

They could speak the lingo and knew how the kit worked.

NutLoose

9th Oct 2021, 12:42

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-58854081

China's President Xi Jinping has said that "reunification" with Taiwan "must be fulfilled", as heightened tensions over the island continue.

Mr Xi said unification should be achieved peacefully, but warned that the Chinese people had a "glorious tradition" of opposing separatism.

In response, Taiwan said its future lay in the hands of its people.

Taiwan considers itself a sovereign state, while China views it as a breakaway province.

Beijing has not ruled out the possible use of force to achieve unification.

Mr Xi's intervention comes after China sent a record number of military jets into Taiwan's air defence zone (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-58794094)in recent days. Some analysts say the flights could be seen as a warning to Taiwan's president ahead of the island's national day on Sunday.

Am I the only one that thinks the a lot of this is down to the USA standing by and letting Georgie happen, failing to meet their obligations to defend the Ukraine as the Crimea was annexed from the Country, and failing to remain in Afghanistan and handing the Country to the Taliban?
In other words showing a weakness to get involved where they have obligations and in that showing China that if they take Taiwan where the USA has commitments they know the US will simply stand back, let it happen and react with nothing but bluster.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/96th-congress/house-bill/2479

..

Big Pistons Forever

9th Oct 2021, 17:34

Xi's rhetoric is almost entirely for domestic consumption and is consistent with historical messaging. The fervor of the "reunite the renegade province with China" policy, has waxed and waned over the last 40 years, but has always been there and has always been entirely talk with no credible military actions taken. The current fuss over the PLA flights near Taiwan is all kabuki theatre and is carefully choregraphed to avoid escalation.

The danger, as always is the unintended action. An overzealous PLA commander takes a hostile action which results in a tactical engagement with loss of Chinses assets and then things spiral out of control with each side reluctant to loose face. If China takes Military action against Taiwan I think that is how the war will begin and in this respect I would suggest Xi is the most dangerous Chinese Leader ever.

The Gazillion dollar question is whether the US will engage if China invades Taiwan. In this respect the current US policy of strategic ambiguity is adding a dangerous level of uncertainty to a volatile situation.

However, personally I think the next major conflict won't be over Taiwan or North Korea, it will start with a nuclear missile launch by Pakistan against India. Pakistan is rapidly becoming a failed state with the ISI increasingly dominated by an extremism Islamic fanatics and with control of at least 100 nuclear tipped missiles.

Lyneham Lad

15th Oct 2021, 16:21

Article + photos in The Times:-

China fortifies three military airbases facing Taiwan

(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/39c2c0e6-2daa-11ec-a1c0-649c1183346f?shareToken=1e5214d36cb737ec9d9109f103ebf453)Chi na has expanded and upgraded three military airbases on its southeast coast, just across from the self-governed island of Taiwan, adding to concerns that Beijing is preparing to go to war to reclaim the island.

Satellite images by Planet Labs Inc, an American company, show Beijing has built aircraft hangars, potential munitions bunkers, extended runways and tarmac aprons, all of which would enhance the combat capabilities of the Chinese air force if it were to attack Taiwan.

The images, first published by The Drive, a US military and tech site, come at a time of tension in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese military aircraft flew a record 150 sorties close to the island’s airspace over five consecutive days in early October, including 56 on October 4 alone.

Beijing has long claimed Taiwan to be part of Chinese territory and vows to take it by force (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/xi-jinping-renews-chinas-pledge-to-swallow-taiwan-pbn0b06d3), if necessary, to achieve national unity.

“Reunification of the nation must be realised and it will definitely be realised,” President Xi declared last week. The Taiwan problem, as “a product of a weaker China”, is certain to be resolved with “the national revival”, Xi said.

He did not mention the use of force but said “reunification through a peaceful manner best suits the overall interest of the Chinese nation, including Taiwan compatriots”.

Across the strait, President Tsai (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/taiwan-will-not-bow-to-china-vows-tsai-ing-wen-during-national-day-celebrations-bg53j3vdl) of Taiwan said the island hoped for an easing of cross-strait relations and that her government would not act rashly.

“But there should be absolutely no illusions that the Taiwanese people will bow to pressure,” she said. “We will continue to bolster our national defence and demonstrate our determination to defend ourselves in order to ensure that nobody can force Taiwan to take the path China has laid out for us.”

The images by Planet Labs confirm earlier pictures from Google Earth that appeared to show construction of extended runways and taxiways as well as of adding more tarmac at the military airbases in Longtian and Huian in the southeast province of Fujian. The bases are 105 miles and 118 miles from Taiwan.The latest images also suggest that the Longtian base has added ammunition bunkers and fortified hangars, which can hide aircraft. The base also features additional administrative buildings and what appears to be a barracks, a sign of increased staffing.

In the Huian base, there are similar developments of additional ammunition bunkers, longer runways and more hangars.

The third base is in Zhangzhou, where satellite images show that China might be building a new surface-to-air missile defence site.

In August, China also unveiled a £340 million plan (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/new-runway-in-the-taiwan-strait-puts-beijings-jets-ever-closer-to-taiwan-3b6ftw5r9) to build a civilian airport on reclaimed land in the Taiwan Strait, some 100 miles away from Taipei, Taiwan’s capital city.

State media say the airport, to be located in Pingtan off the southeast coastline, would be “Taiwan-oriented” with a focus to develop direct passenger flights to the island in future.

America, which accepts the “one China” policy but opposes forced unification, has a security pact with Taipei to supply it with sufficient hardware and technology to deter any mainland invasion, but observers have suggested that Beijing may launch a rapid war to seize the island before Washington and its allies can respond.

The US may also be losing its deterrence against China, as Beijing is rapidly modernising its military forces.

“Let’s put it frankly: the US has lost its strength to make ‘rock solid’ commitments to Taiwan,” read an editorial by the Global Times, a Chinese Communist party-run newspaper.

“The Taiwan Straits and the area near by are within the effective strike range of the [People’s Liberation Army], which is prepared and strong enough to resist outside military interference when the Chinese mainland is determined to solve the Taiwan question.

“The US sending naval and air forces to defend Taiwan would be a death blow to US soldiers,” it continued, adding that China’s nuclear and missile capabilities would deter the US from using its nuclear weapons.

“In short, the US is no longer the country that can exercise military blackmail against China,” the party newspaper concluded.

China is also cultivating closer military and diplomatic ties with Russia.

The countries held joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan today and practised how to operate together and destroy floating enemy mines with artillery fire, the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.

The naval co-operation drills, which are running from October 14-17, involve warships and support vessels from Russia’s Pacific Fleet, including minesweepers and a submarine. Two Chinese destroyers, a submarine and two corvettes were among the vessels Beijing had sent to take part in the drills.

Lyneham Lad

18th Oct 2021, 15:51

In The Times.
China catches US off guard by testing nuclear-capable hypersonic missile

(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cf7b5b66-2f9e-11ec-afd6-aa3ee2eb8a34?shareToken=ce865881c4609ffad094cbd604cc0e93)Chi na has shown “astounding progress” in weapons technology by testing a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile that circled the Earth, catching US intelligence by surprise.

The Chinese military launched a rocket carrying a hypersonic glide vehicle in August (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/hypersonic-wind-tunnel-puts-china-years-ahead-in-missile-race-2rqjmxtrr) that flew through low-orbit space before cruising towards its target, which it missed by about 20 miles, according to the Financial Times.

Hypersonic weapons are difficult to defend against because they fly at lower altitudes and can reach 3,850mph, five times the speed of sound.

Several nations, including the US, China and Russia (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/russia?page=1), are known to be developing the technology in an intensified and expensive arms race. Last month North Korea said it had tested a hypersonic missile (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/north-korea-demands-end-to-joint-military-exercises-amid-further-missile-tests-hgwhg3jwf). Beijing’s hypersonic glide vehicle was said to have been carried by a Long March rocket.

Citing sources briefed on the intelligence, the newspaper said the test “showed that China had made astounding progress on hypersonic weapons and was far more advanced than US (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/united-states) officials realised”.

An unnamed official said: “We have no idea how they did this.”

John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman, said he would not comment on specifics but added: “We have made clear our concerns about the military capabilities China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/china) continues to pursue.”

China claimed today that it had been conducting “a routine spacecraft experiment to test the technology to reuse spacecraft” and suggested that the technology was not intended for military purposes.

Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, said that it was conducting research to reduce the costs of space missions and provide a convenient and affordable way of commuting for humankind to peacefully use space, adding that many countries had conducted similar tests.

He said: “China will work together with all nations in the world to peacefully use space to benefit mankind.”

Zhao added that before the spacecraft returned to Earth its auxiliary equipment would detach and burn in the atmosphere with any debris falling into the East China Sea.

Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a party-run newspaper, wrote: “As China’s economic and technological powers are rising, it’s inevitable that we are closing the gaps with the US in the military technology area and that we may even have overtaken the US in some single items.

“China doesn’t need to engage in an ‘arms race’ with the US. Our normal pace to develop our military powers is enough to erode the advantages the US is so keen to keep against China.

“It’s certain that China will enhance the strength of its nuclear deterrence to ensure that the US will harbour no thought to blackmail China with its nuclear powers at crucial moments.”

Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert, told theGlobal Times that it was a “common ploy” by the US to create rumours and hype over the Chinese threat in order to exert pressure on Congress for more money to develop new weapons.

Song affirmed that China had been developing hypersonic weapons but said it was necessary to frustrate the US policy of containment against China.

“The US is using strategic weapons such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers to threaten China, so China needs more powerful weapons as a countermeasure,” he added.

Red faces all-round in Washington DC?

jolihokistix

19th Oct 2021, 08:14

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20211019_05/

Combined Chinese Russian fleet sails between Japanese main islands of Honshu and Hokkaido. (Somewhat like traversing the Irish Sea?)

ORAC

19th Oct 2021, 09:12

Lonewolf_50

19th Oct 2021, 17:06

Red faces all-round in Washington DC? (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cf7b5b66-2f9e-11ec-afd6-aa3ee2eb8a34?shareToken=ce865881c4609ffad094cbd604cc0e93)
Do you bother to read what you cut and paste?
Do you buy the hyperbole the Chinese are spouting?
If not, why are you replicating their noise here? For example, this bit of overblown noise.
“The US is using strategic weapons such as nuclear-powered aircraft carriers to threaten China, so China needs more powerful weapons as a countermeasure,” he added.
Aircraft carriers are ships; nuclear propulsion has been powering ships for over sixty years.
Hyperbole much?
On the technical side: made a hypersonic missile?
Good for you, China. The arms race has been going on for a long time.

henra

19th Oct 2021, 19:34

In The Times.
China catches US off guard by testing nuclear-capable hypersonic missile

Red faces all-round in Washington DC? (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/cf7b5b66-2f9e-11ec-afd6-aa3ee2eb8a34?shareToken=ce865881c4609ffad094cbd604cc0e93)
Hmmm, dunno.
What exactly do you do with a missile that has a CEP of 20 miles when current ICBMs are 100Yards?

langleybaston

19th Oct 2021, 20:30

Hmmm, dunno.
What exactly do you do with a missile that has a CEP of 20 miles when current ICBMs are 100Yards?

Launch it, and lots more.

From what I learned as S Met. O with the old UKWMO down various holes in the ground, [Fiskerton, Horsham and some I cannot remember] if the yield is big enough, accuracy is rather academic, especially as nobody is going to do a pre-emptive strike with just the one.

Anybody fancy their chances 20 miles from a big one?

ORAC

19th Oct 2021, 21:08

Inverse square law, at 20 miles the effect is low. A 200kt warhead at 100m is more effective than 5Mt at a couple of miles.

ICBMs are hypersonic, the question is do suborbital air breathing missiles provide any advantage.

If you don’t intend to intercept MIRV warheads (and the USA don’t, their interceptors are for the odd rogue launch) then launch detection is enough to preserve a response to first strike; and the reported missile needs an IRBM/ICBM launcher to reach SCRAM engine ignition.

The question to ask is whether this weapon opens a defence hole which needs closing, and I don’t think it does.

Just like the Russian submarine nukes being boasted of by Putin, where’s the added value? MAD is MAD.

Mr N Nimrod

19th Oct 2021, 22:20

Launch it, and lots more.

From what I learned as S Met. O with the old UKWMO down various holes in the ground, [Fiskerton, Horsham and some I cannot remember] if the yield is big enough, accuracy is rather academic, especially as nobody is going to do a pre-emptive strike with just the one.

Anybody fancy their chances 20 miles from a big one?
clearly you either didn’t learn very much, or much more likely, the world has moved on greatly from what you learnt about 50 years ago.

must say I hadn’t realised you were a S Met O, you should mention it more often

henra

19th Oct 2021, 22:56

Anybody fancy their chances 20 miles from a big one?
Quite good, actually,

tartare

20th Oct 2021, 00:12

It's difficult to cut through the hype and hysteria.
What exactly did they test?
Let's pick it apart.
China launched a FOBS - not a major technical achievement - they've been around since the 1960s.
The bombardment part of the system appears to have been some kind of hypersonic glide vehicle - i.e. able to extend significantly downrange and manoeuvre cross-range once in the atmosphere, rather than the limited manoeuverability of current MIRVs.
But manoeuvre to what extent?
My sense is they may have launched something, it re-entered, might have made a turn or two (I saw a reference to dog-legs recently) then it missed it's target by - 20 miles.
Hell, it might have made one turn and disintegrated under airload.
For anything other than a special weapon payload - it's going to be pretty ****e - not much point in kinetic effects if it's so off course.
Hypersonics is hard.
The US is only just getting to the point where it can make these platforms work.
I simply don't believe the Chinese have made some short of exponential improvement in capability.
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.
Show me the range data and a clear indication of something extensively modifying it's flightpath and then hitting with a really good CEP and I'll be worried...

jolihokistix

20th Oct 2021, 03:49

More comparable to the Kuznetsov transiting the English Channel.

compare and contract the UK reaction on that occasion, and the Japanese on this, compared to that of Russia when a UK frigate transited past Crimea and China when a UK, USA or other allied frigate approaches one of their illegally claimed reefs or enters the Taiwan Strait.

I think this one is more personal than transiting the Channel, which after all goes between two unrelated nations. There is little reason for ships to use the Tsugaru Strait even if it is legal under international law. China was wanting to cut across or through a single nation, to show Japan (the US has Misawa base nearby) how it feels to the CCP (not of course to the people of Taiwan though) when foreign warships transit the Taiwan Strait. By holding hands with Russia as she performed this unprecedented move, she was also spreading the responsibility.

Dryce

20th Oct 2021, 12:03

By holding hands with Russia as she performed this unprecedented move, she was also spreading the responsibility.

It also would suggest that China recognises the legitimacy of other nations transiting the South China sea and the concept of innocent passage regardless of what it actually claims.

If they made a point of asking for permission and waiting for receipt of a positive response then that would make an interesting development.

jolihokistix

21st Oct 2021, 02:32

Yes, true. China must still believe in gunboat diplomacy.

tartare

22nd Oct 2021, 04:29

The gauntlet laid down: The US will defend Taiwan says Biden

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59005300

Asturias56

22nd Oct 2021, 07:27

Someone needs to sort this out:-

BBC - President Joe Biden said the US would defend Taiwan if China attacked, in an apparent departure from a long-held US foreign policy position.

But a White House spokesman later told some US media outlets that his remarks did not signify a change in policy. The US has a law which requires it to help Taiwan defend itself. But it has been deliberately vague about what it would actually do if China were to attack Taiwan, in what is known as "strategic ambiguity". China has yet to respond to Mr Biden's comments.
What did Biden and the White House say?At a CNN town hall event, a participant referred to recent reports that China had tested a hypersonic missile (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58953352). He asked Mr Biden if he could "vow to protect Taiwan", and what he would do to keep up with China's military development. Mr Biden responded: "Yes and yes." He added there was no need to "worry about whether they're going to be more powerful", because "China, Russia and the rest of the world knows we're the most powerful military in the history of the world". He was then queried a second time by CNN anchor Anderson Cooper if the US would come to Taiwan's defence in the event of an attack by China. Mr Biden replied: "Yes, we have a commitment to do that."

A White House spokesperson later appeared to walk back Mr Biden's comments, telling US media outlets that the US was "not announcing any change in our policy and there is no change in our policy".

Lyneham Lad

22nd Oct 2021, 17:37

In The Times this evening - lengthy article with explanatory diagrams etc.

Hypersonic warfare: how China is edging ahead in the race for the fastest missile (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/56612576-3331-11ec-820f-e2be9b2cb5fd?shareToken=33ce0368df81af591878ff5a4d694322)

Lonewolf_50

22nd Oct 2021, 21:34

Someone needs to sort this out:-
BBC - President Joe Biden said the US would defend Taiwan if China attacked, in an apparent departure from a long-held US foreign policy position.
But a White House spokesman later told some US media outlets that his remarks did not signify a change in policy.
The US has a law which requires it to help Taiwan defend itself.
But it has been deliberately vague about what it would actually do if China were to attack Taiwan, in what is known as "strategic ambiguity".
China has yet to respond to Mr Biden's comments.What did Biden and the White House say?He was then queried a second time by CNN anchor Anderson Cooper if the US would come to Taiwan's defence in the event of an attack by China. Mr Biden replied: "Yes, we have a commitment to do that."
Yeah. And he's right to say nothing more than that. Don't get into details, leave it vague.
A White House spokesperson later appeared to walk back Mr Biden's comments, telling US media outlets that the US was "not announcing any change in our policy and there is no change in our policy".
(1) Typical political double speak
(2) Joe B is pretty good at saying stuff that may be off script. (must drive his handlers mad)
(3) The Chinese will hear what they want to hear, and disregard the rest.

West Coast

23rd Oct 2021, 07:03

I believe if/when the Chinese decide to invade, there’s no stopping them short of using of buckets of sunshine which no one will.

henra

23rd Oct 2021, 09:54

I believe if/when the Chinese decide to invade, there’s no stopping them short of using of buckets of sunshine which no one will.

Maybe a complete and unlimited Economic Embargo by the whole Western World? Would lead to a total Implosion of China within less than 5 Years.
But while I consider a war theoretically possible I can't fathom the Ultimate Measure of an all- out Economic Embargo (I feel this extreme measure would only be taken as a next step after instant sunshine).

petit plateau

23rd Oct 2021, 10:31

I believe if/when the Chinese decide to invade, there’s no stopping them short of using of buckets of sunshine which no one will.

It might be wise to assume that Taiwan has the capability to become a nuclear weapons state extremely rapidly if circumstances were to require this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan
https://www.nti.org/countries/taiwan/#:~:text=Taiwan%20does%20not%20possess%20nuclear,such%20prog rams%20in%20the%20past.

West Coast

23rd Oct 2021, 15:41

It might be wise to assume that Taiwan has the capability to become a nuclear weapons state extremely rapidly if circumstances were to require this.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Taiwan
https://www.nti.org/countries/taiwan/#:~:text=Taiwan%20does%20not%20possess%20nuclear,such%20prog rams%20in%20the%20past.

Arguments could be simultaneously that Taiwan building/obtaining the bomb would either seal their fate or ensure their continued existence. They and Japan both have the technical wherewithal to make it happen.

Barksdale Boy

23rd Oct 2021, 15:55

China has said in the past that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a trigger for invasion.

West Coast

23rd Oct 2021, 16:17

China has said in the past that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a trigger for invasion.

Taiwan’s window of opportunity to acquire the bomb is closing. From what’s available in the public realm, it seems a Chinese invasion wouldn’t be successful for about another five years or so. Some more ship, more airplanes, more missiles, etc.

Big Pistons Forever

23rd Oct 2021, 16:22

I believe if/when the Chinese decide to invade, there’s no stopping them short of using of buckets of sunshine which no one will.

An invasion of Taiwan will be no cakewalk for China even if the US does not intervene with a direct military response. I can see no conventional war plan that would not result in massive casualties on both sides. Even if China can successfully invade and hold the coast the inland topography is ideally suited to maintain a long and ugly insurgency against the invading force. China is obsessed with looking strong, a Vietnam scenario on their doorstep is the opposite of that. Finally the PLA still has a huge senior leadership problem. When most of your senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over Military acumen you don't usually get a good result...

petit plateau

23rd Oct 2021, 17:55

China has said in the past that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a trigger for invasion.

Normally the flash to bang time is important. This might be one of the occasions where the bang to flash time is more important.

etudiant

23rd Oct 2021, 22:50

An invasion of Taiwan will be no cakewalk for China even if the US does not intervene with a direct military response. I can see no conventional war plan that would not result in massive casualties on both sides. Even if China can successfully invade and hold the coast the inland topography is ideally suited to maintain a long and ugly insurgency against the invading force. China is obsessed with looking strong, a Vietnam scenario on their doorstep is the opposite of that. Finally the PLA still has a huge senior leadership problem. When most of your senior officers are chosen for political loyalty over Military acumen you don't usually get a good result...

Surely that is no different from the current US policy, exemplified by Gen Milley. Possibly that sets up a WW! situation of senior ineptitude on one side offset by senior incompetence on the other. :(
More generally, what is the rush and why act militarily? China is a massive market at Taiwan's doorstep that will not go away and Xi is not immortal. While civil wars are not unprecedented in China, all Chinese are conscious of their ruinous impacts.
In ten years, China will be military at least a peer to the US, working off a several fold larger industrial base. Plus Belt and Road will have spread Chinese influence much more extensively than at present.
Taiwan is run by pragmatists, one should expect them to react pragmatically to these changing circumstances.

Asturias56

24th Oct 2021, 07:32

henra

24th Oct 2021, 09:44

Some good points etufdiant - but no leader of China can suddenly do a volte face on Taiwan - it's hardwired into the system
Trouble is with Xi is that he talks big - in the past the leadership were happy to take the long view, expecting unification "sometime"

That's the mysterious part: Where the hell is the sudden rush coming from? Is Xi nervous that a collapse of the Chinese Bubble (Stock markets, Real estate/Housing + Industrial base moving to cheaper Countries) is getting nearer?

Imagegear

24th Oct 2021, 13:05

.I agree, Xi has to be very nervous, if he starts anything there would almost certainly be a large number of countries defaulting on Chinese debt and a complete breakdown of international trade.

The growing middle class must be reaching the point where they will be forced to intervene or lose everything.

IG.

Big Pistons Forever

24th Oct 2021, 16:28

Re Xi; Lets hope he does not have a "pride goeth before a fall" moment. If war comes it will probably be a result of individual actions by commanders at the tactical level that lead to an out of control spiral of unintended consequences........

Just a spotter

24th Oct 2021, 19:47

That's the mysterious part: Where the hell is the sudden rush coming from? Is Xi nervous that a collapse of the Chinese Bubble (Stock markets, Real estate/Housing + Industrial base moving to cheaper Countries) is getting nearer?China is in the throes of what arguably is the world’s largest ever property bubble. Significant speculative purchase of properties has taken place over the last few years, with developers pocketing full payment and moving to start and break ground on new developments before finishing the just purchased units (the model in China allows for payment to the developer prior to completion), resulting in lots of part built developments across the country. This in essence, shifts the risk from the developer to the banking sector and the buyer. The banks in China are verymuch on the hook with the property market.

The construction sector has reached being 30% of GDP, compare that to high 20’s% for both Spain and Ireland at the time of the bursting of their bubbles.

A lot of domestic wealth will be destroyed when the bubble pops and that will be a big challenge to the Communmist Party. The Party has decided it’s time to act … but it may already be too late. Perhaps a nationalistic distraction may help.

From Reuters, 20th October 2021

China's new home prices stalled for the first time since February 2020 in September, as the chill in the property market intensified amid tightening credit due to an ongoing crackdown on speculative investment.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-new-home-prices-stall-amid-crackdown-speculation-2021-10-20/

JAS

jolihokistix

25th Oct 2021, 10:55

Cocking a long snoot? Those five Russian and five Chinese navy vessels threaded their way right around Japan through channels they’ve never used before.

https://japantoday.com/category/national/5-russian-navy-ships-enter-sea-of-japan-after-circling-around-japan

henra

25th Oct 2021, 13:45

The construction sector has reached being 30% of GDP, compare that to high 20’s% for both Spain and Ireland at the time of the bursting of their bubbles.

A lot of domestic wealth will be destroyed when the bubble pops and that will be a big challenge to the Communmist Party. The Party has decided it’s time to act … but it may already be too late. Perhaps a nationalistic distraction may help.

That's exactly my impression (and worry). The consequence of China's bubble collapsing also from a World Economy perspective is a bit worrying, And I consider Xi's actions as of late as one of the most reliable indications that this is a very real risk. (Or someone's sawing on his chair - but that I don't see being the case).

Lonewolf_50

25th Oct 2021, 15:50

A lot of domestic wealth will be destroyed when the bubble pops and that will be a big challenge to the Communmist Party. The Party has decided it’s time to act … but it may already be too late. Perhaps a nationalistic distraction may help. Would it be a gross error to look at the Government in Buenos Aires and Las Malvinas circa 1982 to see a parallel, - are there too many other dissimilarities to make that comparison useful? Just tossing some spaghetti noodles at the wall and seeing what sticks.
If the Chinese economic bubble bursts, the ripple effects will hit all of their trading partners - that is one difference.
When Argentina's economy tanks, it's just Tuesday.

Asturias56

25th Oct 2021, 16:11

I think the Organs of the State take a more robust view of demonstrations in China than they did in BA..............

ORAC

27th Oct 2021, 20:11

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/top-us-general-confirms-very-concerning-chinese-hypersonic-weapons-test-2021-10-27/

Top U.S. general confirms 'very concerning' Chinese hypersonic weapons test

ORAC

30th Oct 2021, 07:43

And still they come…..

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/10/29/new-variants-of-chinese-stealth-fighters-break-cover/

New variants of Chinese stealth fighters break cover

MELBOURNE, Australia – Two new variants of China’s stealth fighters have broken cover in the past three days, including China’s next carrier-based fighter, hinted at during a recent air show.

Photos and videos taken outside the Chengdu Aircraft factory in its namesake city on Tuesday showed a two-seat J-20 stealth fighter in overall primer, confirming persistent rumors such a variant was being developed by the company. The photos and video, posted on Weibo and other social media portals, distinctly showed the aircraft’s tandem cockpit as it taxied toward the runway for take-off.

It’s not clear what role the back-seater would play, although a logical explanation would be that the rear seat would be occupied by a weapons system officer, or WSO, responsible for operating the J-20′s radar and weapons……

https://cimg4.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1868x1204/image_6effae13b6ccdf9ea219c958ca038cb00b48577b.jpeg

In addition, photos surfaced earlier today of what appears to be China’s stealthy carrier-borne fighter taking to the air for the first time. As previously reported (https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2021/09/29/china-preps-rollout-of-a-new-carrier-based-fighter-jet/), industry officials said during the recent Zhuhai air show the new carrier-borne stealth fighter would make its first flight in 2021.

The photos also confirm the aircraft, whose exact designation is also unknown and is also left in primer, is a development of the redesigned Shenyang FC-31 stealth fighter that has also been called the J-31 in some quarters and was previously suggested as an export design.

The photos, taken while the aircraft was in flight, show the catapult launch bar on the nose landing gear and what appears to be hinges on the wings that allow them to be folded, a typical feature of carrier-based aircraft to allow the limited space on the flight deck and hangars to be maximized.

The new type will likely equip the Type 003 carrier being built at a shipyard in the coastal megacity of Shanghai, which, unlike China’s two existing carriers, will be fitted with catapults that will allow it to shorten the aircraft launch cycle, as well as enable it to operate larger and heavier aircraft such as the Xi’an KJ-600 turboprop carrier-borne airborne early warning aircraft.….

https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1570x1024/image_0e09e73b8f370204f107a5dddf40350e4d7a9c5e.jpeg

jolihokistix

30th Oct 2021, 08:01

Wouldn’t it be cheaper all round to have the Chinese build our military aircraft for us? Then no one would have to make copies any more.

ORAC

30th Oct 2021, 08:52

USN Aggressors migrating (sic) from Russian to Chinese markings and camouflage.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/42930/chinas-national-insignia-appears-on-u-s-navy-adversary-f-a-18-hornet

China's National Insignia Appears On U.S. Navy Adversary F/A-18 Hornet

ORAC

4th Nov 2021, 10:10

Relevant both because of the current geopolitical situation, but also in light of AUKUS and the increasing number of joint exercises between allies in the area - such as the recent QE deployment.

https://twitter.com/pinstripedline/status/1456007990163689481?s=21

ORAC

5th Nov 2021, 07:20

https://www.defensenews.com/digital-show-dailies/feindef/2021/11/05/as-europe-looks-to-the-indo-pacific-so-does-the-luftwaffe/

As Europe looks to the Indo-Pacific, so does the Luftwaffe

STUTTGART, Germany — The German Air Force is preparing to send fighters, tankers and transport aircraft across the world to the Asia-Pacific region in a little less than a year, as its colleagues in the European Union (https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/10/10/needed-a-transatlantic-agreement-on-european-strategic-autonomy/) continue to assess how the bloc should increase its involvement in the region.

The Luftwaffe will deploy six Eurofighter aircraft, three Airbus A330 tankers and three A400M transport aircraft in support of Australia’s Pitch Black exercise, scheduled for Sept. 5-23, 2022. The typically biennial exercise was canceled in 2020, and next year’s edition will be the first since 2018.

Germany is ready to play a bigger role in the Indo-Pacific region, and will start with this initial sortie next fall before developing a more long-term plan, said Air Force Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Ingo Gerhartz.

This is the Air Force’s “first and biggest deployment” of air assets to the Asia-Pacific region, Gerhartz said in an interview with Defense News in October at the Luftwaffe’s Neuburg Air Base in Bavaria.. “It’s a strong signal to show our valued partners in the Indo-Pacific that we are with them.”…..

The Air Force’s deployment exercise is based on a series of policy guidelines for the region published by the German government in September 2020.

“With the rise of Asia, the political and economic balance is increasingly shifting towards the Indo-Pacific,” the Luftwaffe spokesperson said. “The region is becoming the key to shaping the international order in the 21st century.”….

Lonewolf_50

6th Nov 2021, 00:55

rattman

6th Nov 2021, 01:23

The Chinese are at least planning long term to do something about their energy supply.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-11-02/china-climate-goals-hinge-on-440-billion-nuclear-power-plan-to-rival-u-s

Thanks to the greenish, blinkered morons in my country, getting a nuke plant up and running has become a nightmare.
Thankfully, our aircraft carriers are still using nuclear power.

The issue isn't greens or even regulatory. Its incompetence in the management of the design and construction. France due to be part of the EU has a stronger green rules than the US and yet they can build nuclear plants cheaper, faster and on budget better than the US. France does it differently they effectively make a production line. The paraphrase ford, you can have nuclear power plant you want as long as its black, france uses and build the same design plant. They dont change them based on multiple factors. France has one company authorised to build plants in france and they only have one available design at any time

megan

6th Nov 2021, 02:17

The Luftwaffe will deploy six Eurofighter aircraft, three Airbus A330 tankers and three A400M transport aircraft in support of Australia’s Pitch Black exerciseWonder if France will turn up this time.

golder

6th Nov 2021, 03:38

ORAC

6th Nov 2021, 09:13

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/05/congress-biden-taiwan-519689

Congress pressures Biden to defend Taiwan

China’s military provocations toward Taiwan and President Joe Biden’s mixed messages are igniting a debate on Capitol Hill over whether to adopt a more aggressive official posture — including the possibility of preemptively authorizing Biden to use military force if Beijing invades the island nation.

The conversations, coupled with the White House’s efforts to walk back some of Biden’s apparent slips of the tongue, are fueling bipartisan efforts to ditch “strategic ambiguity,” the policy that has governed the U.S. posture toward the conflict for more than four decades. The strategic ambiguity doctrine, enshrined in the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, stipulates that the U.S. remains purposely noncommittal about whether it would defend Taiwan from an attack or invasion by China.…..

Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), a retired Navy officer and the vice chair of the House Armed Services Committee, said in an interview that Congress should consider sending Biden a “very narrow and specific contingent authorization for the use of military force” to defend Taiwan. That action would effectively gut “strategic ambiguity” and allow the president to respond immediately to a Chinese attack or invasion without waiting for Congress to send him an authorization.….

Asturias56

6th Nov 2021, 16:31

wasn't the whole point of "strategic ambiguity" to allow the US and China to be able to trade without a slanging match, a trade war or worse?

fitliker

6th Nov 2021, 17:46

West Coast

6th Nov 2021, 17:58

https://www.dw.com/en/german-engine-technology-found-in-chinese-warships-report/a-59740301

German engines in Chinese ships . MTUs
History rhymes again as Japanese ships used to have British engines . Engines and technology that officially were still considered secret at the time.

And an engine of British design in MiG-15s.

Khrushchev’s boast of where he’d get the rope to hang us has some validity.

Asturias56

7th Nov 2021, 06:58

Not long ago a fairly authoritative book on the PLA (N) pointed out that much of the electronics used in their latest service vessels was commercial stuff procured, legally, in the market. It works well, there is no development risk and you can always get spares. Problem is it's not easy to integrate all these separately designed systems, they're not "state of the art" and of course they're not exactly secret so counter measures are easy

arf23

7th Nov 2021, 08:58

Just This Once...

7th Nov 2021, 11:48

Australia isn't China's backyard - see a picture of the Earth for details.

Buster Hyman

7th Nov 2021, 12:24

Australia isn't China's backyard - see a picture of the Earth for details.
True, but China will soon claim to be a 'Near Antarctica' Nation so...

ORAC

7th Nov 2021, 12:44

True, but China will soon claim to be a 'Near Antarctica' Nation so... Soon? Now, and both Arctic and Antarctic...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2021/01/10/new-polar-strategy-must-focus-on-chinas-long-march-to-antarctica/?sh=59d28e6f63e3

New Polar Strategy Must Focus On China’s Long March To Antarctica

https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/05/11/chinas-strategic-interest-in-the-arctic-goes-beyond-economics/

China’s strategic interest in the Arctic goes beyond economics

West Coast

7th Nov 2021, 15:03

so if the Germans send a mini task force toodling around China's backyard are they ok with the reverse, it would only fair?

I'm envisioning the Russians asking their PLA friends to bring some warships, subs and long range bombers for joint exercises in the Baltic and out over the North Sea and Channel. Fairs fair and all...

Your question shouldn’t be if it’s fair, rather if it’s in compliance of law, treaties, etc to which the answer is yes.

The Chinese don’t have to like it, no more than the Germans would in your example.

Asturias56

7th Nov 2021, 16:07

"Australia isn't China's backyard - see a picture of the Earth for details."

I've pointed out before that Finland is closer to China than Australia is..................

Buster Hyman

8th Nov 2021, 01:17

"Australia isn't China's backyard - see a picture of the Earth for details."

I've pointed out before that Finland is closer to China than Australia is..................
Really? Where are you measuring from?

Asturias56

8th Nov 2021, 07:38

Use GoogleEarth - the nearest points in all three countries

Tacheng (W CHina) to the Eastern border of Finland south of Pirhu 3577 kms

Sanay (S end of Hainan Island) to Sir Graham Moore Island (NE of Kulumburu) 3980 kms

I was surprised myself......
-

rattman

8th Nov 2021, 09:16

Really? Where are you measuring from?

Capital to capital

Mainland to mainland

Only time australia becomes closer is if you count christmas island

ORAC

8th Nov 2021, 09:23

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status/1457394544794865669?s=21

ORAC

8th Nov 2021, 10:08

https://twitter.com/warinthefuture/status/1457417642118025216?s=21

Buster Hyman

8th Nov 2021, 11:38

Capital to capital

Mainland to mainland

Only time australia becomes closer is if you count christmas island
:rolleyes: Sweet, they can have Christmas Island. Except, don't forget the man made islands full of military junk in the SCS of course. I'll sleep well tonight. Oh, and suffer in ya jocks Helsinki!

golder

9th Nov 2021, 05:09

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status/1457394544794865669?s=21
Good luck getting WVR of a carrier. The time would be better spent working on BVR and OTH

ORAC

19th Nov 2021, 06:45

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/philippines-warns-china-after-boats-are-hit-by-water-cannon-off-disputed-islands-gbfmm7rfs

Philippines warns China after boats are hit by water cannon off disputed islands

The Philippines furiously warned China to “back off” after Chinese coastguard vessels used water cannon to push back vessels supplying a remote military base in the South China Sea claimed by Beijing.

The Philippines foreign minister hinted that Manila was willing to invoke its military defence treaty with the United States to defend the passage to its troops stationed on Second Thomas Shoal. It is one of the Spratly Islands, a scattered range of reefs, sandbanks and islets whose rich fishing grounds and strategic position mean they are claimed in whole or part by six governments in the region.

“Fortunately, no one was hurt; but our boats had to abort their resupply mission,” said Teodoro Locsin about the incident on Tuesday. “I have conveyed in the strongest terms . . . our outrage, condemnation and protest of the incident. I reminded China that a public vessel is covered by the Philippines-United States Mutual Defence Treaty.”

Second Thomas Shoal, known as Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines, is defended by a small detachment of marines living on the Sierra Madre, a rusting Second World War naval ship, which was deliberately run aground there by the Philippines in 1999 to strengthen its claim. Two wooden vessels carrying supplies to the Philippines marines were sprayed with powerful jets of water for an hour, causing minor damage to one of them and forcing their retreat.

“The acts of the Chinese coastguard vessels are illegal,” Locsin said. “China has no law enforcement rights in and around these areas. They must take heed and back off.” He added: “The Philippines will continue to provide supplies to our troops in Ayungin Shoal. We do not ask permission to do what we need to do in our territory.”

In Beijing the spokesman for the Chinese foreign ministry, Zhao Lijian, said that the Chinese coastguard “upheld China’s sovereignty” after Philippine ships entered Chinese territorial waters without permission……

Locsin’s invocation of the Philippines’ treaty with the US is a reminder of ways in which Washington could be dragged into a conflict over tiny specks of territory far from the American homeland.….

jolihokistix

19th Nov 2021, 06:58

China bully tactics once again. “What’s mine is mine, and what’s yours is mine too, including the whole school and playground.”

ORAC

20th Nov 2021, 07:25

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/19/chinese-military-base-uae-construction-abandoned-us-intelligence-report

Work on ‘Chinese military base’ in UAE abandoned after US intervenes

US intelligence agencies found evidence this year of construction work on what they believed was a secret Chinese military facility in the United Arab Emirates (https://www.theguardian.com/world/united-arab-emirates), which was stopped after Washington’s intervention, according to a report on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-china-uae-military-11637274224) reported that satellite imagery of the port of Khalifa had revealed suspicious construction work inside a container terminal built and operated by a Chinese shipping corporation, Cosco.

The evidence included huge excavations apparently for a multi-storey building and the fact that the site was covered in an apparent attempt to evade scrutiny……

On the same day, the state department warned Beijing the US would intervene to defend Philippines ships in the event of an armed Chinese attack, following an incident in which Chinese naval vessels used water cannon against Philippine resupply boats in the South China Sea.

The state department spokesman, Ned Price, called the Chinese action “dangerous, provocative, and unjustified”.

Beijing “should not interfere with lawful Philippine activities in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone”, Price said in a statement. “The United States stands with our Philippine allies in upholding the rules-based international maritime order and reaffirms that an armed attack on Philippine public vessels in the South China Sea would invoke US mutual defense commitments.”…..

ORAC

26th Nov 2021, 05:48

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/nov/26/mistakes-of-the-1930s-peter-dutton-ramps-up-china-rhetoric-as-keating-calls-him-a-dangerous-personality?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1637907134

‘Mistakes of the 1930s’: Peter Dutton ramps up China rhetoric as Keating calls him a ‘dangerous personality’

ORAC

26th Nov 2021, 21:28

Politics and the WHO……

https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1464328982711705603?s=21

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi_Jinping

jolihokistix

26th Nov 2021, 23:32

ORAC, that's a different chart from the original tweet... (?)

megan

27th Nov 2021, 03:22

Locals in the Solomon Islands upset with governments Chinese stance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/solomon-islands-leader-blames-violent-anti-government-protests-on-foreign-interference

Lyneham Lad

30th Nov 2021, 16:59

Lengthy article, photos & map etc in The Times evening update.

Pentagon to expand military presence in the Pacific as China picks up the pace (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/740a5aac-51ea-11ec-a5fe-8f0d6a1c517d?shareToken=a9e655d143577b73089fa8a212423b33)

havoc

30th Nov 2021, 22:16

US Navy commander calls for more aircraft carriers in Pacific to dissuade China, Russia from conflict (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/us-navy-commander-calls-for-more-aircraft-carriers-in-pacific-to-dissuade-china-russia-from-conflict/ar-AARiZrS?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531)

US Navy commander calls for more aircraft carriers in Pacific to dissuade China, Russia from conflict The commander of the U.S. Navy's 7th Fleet has called for more aircraft carriers in the Pacific to dissuade China and Russia from conflict.

Vice Adm. Karl Thomas made the comment after the U.S. concluded a 10-day naval exercise with Japan, Australia, Canada and Germany, The Wall Street Journal reported (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-commander-calls-for-more-aircraft-carriers-in-pacific-to-deter-china-11638278989).

Thomas, when asked about the threat from China and Russia, said it was important to show a united front to "other nations that might be more aggressive and authoritarian," the newspaper reported.

He added that the U.S. and allies should use joint exercises to "deter aggression from some of these nations that are showing burgeoning strength [and] tell these nations that maybe today is not the day."

Earlier this month, the U.S. Naval Institute said that China was building mock-ups (https://thehill.com/policy/defense/navy/580502-china-building-mockups-resembling-us-navy-ships-for-possible-target) of U.S. Navy ships as part of a new target range developed by the People's Liberation Army.

China commissioned its first domestically built aircraft carrier in late 2019, and a second carrier is expected to enter service by 2024, the Pentagon said in its annual report to Congress (https://media.defense.gov/2021/Nov/03/2002885874/-1/-1/0/2021-CMPR-FINAL.PDF).

Russia, meanwhile, announced Monday that it successfully tested a Zircon cruise missile, which is believed to fly at more than five times the speed of sound, adding to concerns regarding Moscow's buildup of troops near its border with Ukraine.

Thomas made the remarks at the conclusion of the annual AnnualEX naval exercise, which began on Nov. 21 (https://www.cpf.navy.mil/News/Article/2849971/australia-canada-germany-japan-us-join-for-annualex-2021/) in the Philippine Sea off the coast of Japan.

The U.S. Navy was joined by the Royal Australian Navy, Royal Canadian Navy, German Navy and Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.

Thomas said the combined forces represent "an incredible amount of power," the Journal reported, adding "when we think about how we might fight, it's a large water space, and four aircraft carriers is a good number, but six, seven or eight would be better."

Lyneham Lad

12th Jan 2022, 16:59

Article, diagram & video in The Times
Japan invests in railgun to shoot down North Korea missiles (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/35d292d8-73b2-11ec-89e9-22d3d9c31ba2?shareToken=9e2f43757248d14aff1e45e3e4792a3b)

Japan is spending tens of millions of pounds on an electromagnetic gun that fires supersonic missiles to try to hit even faster missiles deployed by North Korea, China and Russia.

Tokyo’s project has been given new impetus by advances in hypersonic weaponry, such as the short-range missile fired by North Korea into the Sea of Japan on Monday.

Click the link for the full article etc.

Lyneham Lad

12th Jan 2022, 17:04

Also in The Times.
Combat jet crash shakes Taiwan’s hopes of fighting off China in the air (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ed5bbeda-73c5-11ec-aacf-0736e08b15cd?shareToken=e2543751c677b3a66eee2c64bc18fdb3)

One of Taiwan’s most advanced fighter jets crashed into the sea during combat training yesterday, dealing a blow to the self-governed island’s hope of using the warplanes to boost its defence against rising threats from Beijing.

Rescuers found debris of the F-16V fighter this morning, but they were yet to locate its pilot, Captain Chen Yi.

The jet disappeared from radar screens at 3.23 pm on Tuesday, about 30 minutes after it took off from Chiayi Air Base in the southwest on a routine training mission with one other aircraft. Weather conditions were good and there was high visibility at the time.

The island has since grounded all of its 140 F-16s to conduct safety checks, and Tsai Ing-wen, the president, ordered an investigation into the crash, the first involving a jet of its kind.

Taiwan has signed a deal with Lockheed Martin, the US defence firm, to upgrade all its 141 F-16A/B fighter jets by 2023 as the island seeks to boost its defence capabilities against China, which considers the island part of its own territory and has threatened to unify with it, by force if necessary, to achieve national unity.

Since September 2020, China’s air force has been sending warplanes into airspace near the island almost on a daily basis. In response, Taiwan is in talks with Washington, which has a security pact to supply the island with sufficient military hardware and technology to fend off any mainland invasion, to upgrade its equipment and strengthen combat training.

After news of the crash emerged, Beijing dismissed the Taiwan government as “not knowing its abilities” in its attempt to seek independence by force.

“It will not only seriously damage the well-being of the Taiwanese people but will also exacerbate tensions and turmoil in the Taiwan Strait, pushing the Taiwanese people into a dangerous situation,” Zhu Fenglian, a spokeswoman of China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, said yesterday.

Sadly it seems an 'RIP' is needed.

Just a spotter

17th Jan 2022, 14:02

From The Economist, 15th Jan 2022

In their China column, Chaguan , under the headline America and China are one military accident away from disaster

In Beijing, scholars and officials talk of when, not whether another accident will occur. Then they wonder how such a crisis would be managed, by two countries locked in open ideological competition and stalked by rising nationalism.
The last incident involved a collision between a Chinese navy fighter and an American spy plane, high over the South China Sea on April 1st 2001. The Chinese pilot died after his jet broke apart. Badly damaged, America’s naval reconnaissance plane, a lumbering, propeller-driven EP-3 with 24 crew aboard, limped to a Chinese military airfield on the tropical island of Hainan, landing without permission.

https://www.economist.com/china/2022/01/15/america-and-china-are-one-military-accident-away-from-disaster

The full article is past the paywall, but it is included in full as part of this weeks Editors Picks free podcast, at the 18:00 mark

https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2022/01/17/bossy-states-party-animal-politics-and-superpower-rivalry

JAS

T28B

24th Jan 2022, 19:37

This is news that is aviation specific.
China flies 39 warplanes towards Taiwan as tensions with island rise (https://news.sky.com/story/china-flies-39-warplanes-towards-taiwan-as-tensions-with-island-rise-12524148)

It appears to be a bit of muscle flexing or probing, to see what Taiwan's radar and air defense units do.

havoc

16th Mar 2022, 17:03

China Planned Taiwan Invasion in Fall, Alleged Russian Intel Leak Claims (msn.com) (https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-planned-taiwan-invasion-in-fall-alleged-russian-intel-leak-claims/ar-AAV7PpX?ocid=msedgdhp&pc=U531)Taiwan (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/taiwan)'s top diplomat said he couldn't speak on the authenticity of a purported Russian intelligence document that claimed Chinese President Xi Jinping (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/xi-jinping) had plans to annex the island nation this fall.

Joseph Wu, Taiwan's minister of foreign affairs, said on Wednesday that his country would have to prepare regardless. "No matter if or when China (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/china) decides to attack us, we must always be ready to defend ourselves," he told reporters in Taipei.

During a defense committee hearing in the island's legislature, Wu told lawmakers that he was aware of media reports about the document said to be written by an anonymous analyst with Russia (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/russia)'s Federal Security Service calling themself "Wind of Change." The foreign minister said he wasn't able to verify the alleged FSB document, but said Taiwan's own intelligence services were closely monitoring relevant chatter.

The letter in question is part of a series published by France-based Russian dissident Vladimir Osechkin, a human rights lawyer who runs gulagu-net.ru, a website documenting abuses in Russian jails. Osechkin claims to have received seven letters since Russia's invasion of Ukraine (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/ukraine). The FSB whistleblower has painted a detailed picture of fear and chaos (https://www.newsweek.com/ex-kremlin-official-condemns-ukraine-war-that-kills-hopes-aspirations-1688344) inside Russia's principal intelligence service, where apparently none but a select few were aware of Putin's plans.

Christo Grozev, the executive director of investigative journalism group Bellingcat (https://www.newsweek.com/russian-government-helped-berlin-assassin-travel-europe-kill-target-new-evidence-bellingcat-1461821), said earlier this month that his FSB contacts believe the whistleblower to be authentic, even if they didn't agree with the conclusions of his analysis.

In the fourth letter (https://gulagu-net.ru/news/2022-03-10-1237.html) to Osechkin, dated March 9, the author describes the difficult position in which Moscow has put Beijing because of Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, a move that united the West and turned Russia into such a pariah that China would find it hard to offer support (https://www.newsweek.com/america-allies-tell-china-stop-supporting-russia-war-ukraine-sanctions-1688050).

"Because of the war, Russia has such a negative image for a number of countries that the United States can easily push sanctions against China, at least with the Europeans, if it risks circumventing the sanctions on Russia," the letter read. "China depends on exports so much that, coupled with its dependence on commodity prices…this would be almost a fatal blow."

The whistleblower continued: "Not only that: Xi Jinping was at least tentatively considering the capture of Taiwan in the autumn—he needs his own small victory in order to be re-elected for a third term—there is a colossal power struggle among the [party] elite. Now, after the events in Ukraine, this window of opportunity has shut, which gives the United States the opportunity to both blackmail Xi and negotiate with his [political] rivals on favorable terms."

The author concludes that Moscow's actions had inadvertently trapped Beijing, forcing the Chinese leadership to scuttle its own invasion plans.

While Newsweek wasn't able to independently verify the authenticity of the FSB letter, it's worth noting that the information about China's timeline would contradict Taiwan's own intelligence on the subject.

In October 2021, months into Russia's troop buildup along Ukraine's borders, Taipei's chief of intelligence, Chen Ming-tong, told lawmakers that, barring an unexpected contingency, an attack by China wasn't likely (https://www.newsweek.com/war-china-not-likely-next-three-years-taiwan-intelligence-chief-1640681) in the next three years, until after Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen leaves office.

A Chinese amphibious invasion in fall would also go against conventional military thinking, which takes into account unfavorable weather conditions across the Taiwan Strait throughout the summer and at least through September.

The Chinese Communist Party (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/chinese-communist-party)'s 20th National Congress (https://www.newsweek.com/topic/congress), where Xi is expecting to secure a third term, is also scheduled for fall and could begin in October or November.

Lyneham Lad

23rd Mar 2022, 12:35

From The Times today.

US navy boosts presence in South China Sea with expeditionary base (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f48cd934-aa96-11ec-b5dd-c16e85f55725?shareToken=e1d15508b724e4f2fabe036ce4267495)

A US navy expeditionary “base” has entered the disputed waters of the South China Sea for the first time, a think tank based in Beijing has claimed.

Citing commercial satellite imagery, the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative (SCSPI) tweeted that the USS Miguel Keith, a Lewis B Puller-class expeditionary mobile base, and a guided missile destroyer, had entered the contested sea on Monday. It said this was the first time the amphibious base had entered the sea since the ship was deployed to the western Pacific last October.

The US navy is yet to confirm the report. China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/china)’s foreign ministry has not responded, but Chinese analysts told the Global Times, a party-run newspaper, that the presence of the 240-metre, 90,000-tonne logistics vessel, which can land heavy helicopters and work as a command and control centre, was alarming.

“China should pay close attention to the USS Miguel Keith’s movements and figure out ways to deal with it, because its presence in the South China Sea could significantly enhance the US military’s operational capabilities in the region,” an unnamed military expert told the newspaper.

The SCSPI said the warship, a new type of strategic platform, was likely to join more military drills and events in the South China Sea.

Click the link for the full article.

fitliker

23rd Mar 2022, 17:08

Looks like Tinian island might need a runway upgrade .

jolihokistix

24th Mar 2022, 09:24

Meanwhile we had an ICBM splashdown 90 miles off the coast here this afternoon, plunging from *6,000 km above.
(*News sources vary… 6,200 km?)

jolihokistix

24th Mar 2022, 12:03

PS Within Japan’s EEZ, and with no advanced warning to aircraft or shipping.

Buster Hyman

24th Mar 2022, 12:09

https://www.news.com.au/world/asia/china-poised-to-sign-crucial-security-deal-in-the-pacific-with-solomon-islands/news-story/4053737f571c1781b5451c740b0e4801

The draft agreement will essentially give China the authority to use its military to protect the safety of Chinese ships and projects in the Solomon Islands.

It will also give leader Xi Jinping a port for his navy, perched less than 2000 kilometres off Australia’s shoreline.

Well....that's not good.

havoc

24th Mar 2022, 14:10

China fully militarizes key South China Sea features | Asian Telegraph (https://asiantelegraph.com/news/china/china-fully-militarizes-key-south-china-sea-features/)While international attention is transfixed on the war in Ukraine, China has fully militarized three of its occupied islands in the contested South China Sea.

Speaking aboard a P-8 Poseidon on patrol in the South China Sea, US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral John Aquilino said on March 20 that “China has fully militarized at least three of several islands it built in the disputed South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby.”

According to Aquilino, China’s facilities on Mischief Reef, Subi Reef and Fiery Cross Reef appear to have been completed. He said it is yet to be seen whether China will start construction of additional military facilities in its other occupied features in the maritime area.

Admiral Aquilino added that “the function of those islands is to expand the offensive capability of the PRC beyond their continental shores” and that from these occupied features, China “can fly fighters, bombers plus all those offensive capabilities of missile systems.”

Aquilino also stressed that commercial and military planes flying near these occupied islands will be within the range of China’s weapons, which he said threatens all countries that operate near those features.

During the P-8 Poseidon’s patrol, it was reportedly repeatedly challenged with Chinese radio communications, giving a stern warning that “China has sovereign over the Spratly Islands, as well as surrounding maritime areas. Stay away immediately to avoid misjudgment.”

The P-8 Poseidon’s crew responded, “I am a sovereign immune United States naval aircraft conducting lawful military activities beyond the national airspace of any coastal state.”

While China maintains that its military expansion in these disputed waters is primarily defensive and aimed at protecting its sovereignty, the recent militarization stands in stark contrast to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s past assurances that it would not transform its occupied features into military bases.

China’s objectives in the South China Sea can be summed up in three main points. First, China wants to transform the South China Sea into a sanctuary for its nuclear ballistic missile submarines, which need to operate in the Western Pacific to ensure nuclear deterrence against the US.

Second, China intends to transform the South China Sea into a buffer zone between itself and the US in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Third, China aims to control the South China Sea’s underwater resources, namely oil, gas, and fisheries, as well as secure its own maritime trading routes.

Traditionally, China considered Taiwan to be the most immediate threat to its core interests as its mere existence presents an alternate China not under Communist rule. China considers Taiwan a rogue province that should eventually be reunited with the mainland.

Taiwan’s high standard of living also poses difficult questions about the economic and governance policies of China’s Communist Party rulers, with as many as 600 million Chinese still deemed as poor despite massive economic growth in recent decades.

China started militarizing its holdings in the maritime area two decades back, much to the chagrin of the US and its Pacific allies, alongside Southeast Asian states involved in these maritime disputes. While the US and its allies routinely conduct Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) in the South China Sea, the responses of Southeast Asian states have been somewhat varied.

Brunei and Malaysia have taken a softer, quiet diplomacy approach to China’s wide-reaching territorial claims, preferring to maintain a low profile on their conflicts with Beijing. Vietnam has been consistently balancing against China’s superior naval might by modernizing its navy and establishing its own maritime militia.

While Indonesia is not a direct claimant in the South China Sea, Chinese encroachment in its Natuna Islands which are located on the southernmost extent of its nine-dash line has prompted Indonesia to take a hard-line stance on illegal fishing in the area by Chinese trawlers and to modernize its own military and power projection capabilities.

The Philippines heavily relies on its 1951 mutual defense treaty with the US and international law to assert its own territorial claims and challenge China’s. In 2016, Manila lodged a case against China that was handled by the UN-backed Arbitral Tribunal and decided in the Philippines’ favor. Beijing has ignored the ruling, however, which lacked an enforcement mechanism.

NutLoose

24th Mar 2022, 17:01

Also Japan, Putin has stopped negotiating peace with Japan, it is still technically still at war from 1945.

https://www.cityam.com/angry-putin-ends-wwii-peace-talks-with-japan-as-tokyo-exploits-anti-russian-sentiment-to-claim-kuril-islands/

The Russian government has told Japan it is ending negotiations to sign a formal World War II peace treaty because of Tokyo’s efforts to exploit the Ukraine war to claim the Kuril Islands belong to Japan.

“The Russian side, in the current conditions, does not intend to continue talks with Japan on the peace treaty,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Russia and Japan have never formally signed a peace treaty to end World War II.

One of the key issues is competing claims over territorial rights to the Kuril Islands, which Tokyo calls its Northern Territories. Soviet troops seized them from Japan at the end of the war, and Russia still occupies the island group.

However, last week Fumio Kishida, Japan’s prime minister, said that southern Kuril Islands are a sovereign part of his country, and not part of Russia, which has controlled the group of islands since.

Speaking in the Diet earlier, Kishida told lawmakers the Kuril Islands are “original territories of Japan”.

The islands have been a point of controversy between Japan and the Russia for decades. Moscow took control of the islands after World War II in 1945.

In recent years, the Japanese government had refrained from referring to the islands as its “original territories” in order to avoid upsetting the Russian government.

However, following the global anti-Moscow sentiment since the invasion of Ukraine, the Japanese government has reinstated its historic claim on the silands.

“The Northern Territories belong to Japan. They are the territory on which Japan has sovereignty,” Kishida said.

In fact, on 29 February, on the second day of the Russian invasion, Japan’s foreign minister, Hideki Uyama, even went so far to say that Russia had “occupied” the southern part of the Kuril Islands, thereby violating international law.

fdr

25th Mar 2022, 02:30

China fully militarizes key South China Sea features | Asian Telegraph (https://asiantelegraph.com/news/china/china-fully-militarizes-key-south-china-sea-features/)While international attention is transfixed on the war in Ukraine, China has fully militarized three of its occupied islands in the contested South China Sea.

Speaking aboard a P-8 Poseidon on patrol in the South China Sea, US Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral John Aquilino said on March 20 that “China has fully militarized at least three of several islands it built in the disputed South China Sea, arming them with anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems, laser and jamming equipment and fighter jets in an increasingly aggressive move that threatens all nations operating nearby.”

According to Aquilino, China’s facilities on Mischief Reef, Subi Reef and Fiery Cross Reef appear to have been completed. He said it is yet to be seen whether China will start construction of additional military facilities in its other occupied features in the maritime area.

Admiral Aquilino added that “the function of those islands is to expand the offensive capability of the PRC beyond their continental shores” and that from these occupied features, China “can fly fighters, bombers plus all those offensive capabilities of missile systems.”

Aquilino also stressed that commercial and military planes flying near these occupied islands will be within the range of China’s weapons, which he said threatens all countries that operate near those features....

China’s objectives in the South China Sea can be summed up in three main points. First, China wants to transform the South China Sea into a sanctuary for its nuclear ballistic missile submarines, which need to operate in the Western Pacific to ensure nuclear deterrence against the US....

Second, China intends to transform the South China Sea into a buffer zone between itself and the US in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. Third, China aims to control the South China Sea’s underwater resources, namely oil, gas, and fisheries, as well as secure its own maritime trading routes....

Traditionally, China considered Taiwan to be the most immediate threat to its core interests as its mere existence presents an alternate China not under Communist rule. China considers Taiwan a rogue province that should eventually be reunited with the mainland.....

.

Boomers in the SCS

The acoustics of the SCS is just awful, but it is a pond compared to the complete Pacific ocean. with GPS and burst transmission, a temporary SOSUS type array is still feasible, and nuke-powered boomers still have coolant pumps even when good acoustic isolation is employed, and they always leave a thermal trail. I would rather chase a nuke in the lake than a nuke in an open ocean expanse. Turbulence tracking is still viable, so I would not be signing up to spend time in a boat assuming that I cannot be detected or attacked.

The more established China becomes with air defence on their stolen islands, the less tenable the P8 type search and attack capability become, but that doesn't do anything to avoid retasking predators with a Mk 101 or aerial torpedoes.

BUFFERS

Stealing disputed territory as a buffer doesn't look good on your resume, and the sooner that the USA and EUR determine that China's long game is not to be friendly to the interests of the US or EUR, particularly with the resurrection of a god-emperor, the sooner we can get back to stable basics of economics. The cost of concluding manufacture arbitrage pays back very quickly. Ask China. Taiwan has been an asset to China over the last 40 years, and a petulant dear leader moment doesn't do anything to make China a better place than it is now. Taiwanese nationalism will give a response to a Chinese attack that would lead to China being a pariah, and having to deal with long-term guerilla warfare, that quite possibly would be taken back to China proper. The gift that keeps giving. The good news is, making bases in the SCS makes for better targeting of the PRC infrastructure than having to go chase skimmers and boats. Closure of the SCS would have the neat side effect of shutting down China's trade indefinitely, by their own hand. Chinas centrally controlled bubble economy that has developed domestic demand through the insanity of propping up unwanted and unsupportable property development is starting to come home to roost. Shutting off foreign trade is hardly a victory to China.

RESOURCES

SCS has its fair share of resources, a lot of which is getting past its use-by date. Obtaining the resources at the cost of alienating every trading partner apart from.... North Korea, Eritrea, and Russia seem to be unbalanced as a break-even. Doesn't mean that it won't happen, it just suggests that a god-emperor with all-powerful authority and no constraints from rational subordinates conjures up the adage, that total power corrupts totally. How that is of long-term benefit to a China that is successful as a global exporter is lost on me.

nomorecatering

26th Mar 2022, 03:24

Anyone who has studied the preparation for D-Day done by the allied forces in WW2 would know that China has neither the resources, nor the logistic management & expertise to conduct a seabourne invasion of an island over 150nm of open ocean. They simply don't have the kit or the knowhow. On top of this, China is effectively broke. If the Russians are having a torrid time onvading over a land border what hope to the Chinese have over open ocean.

The Chinese military is little more than a ponzi scheme to get rich........for some. A significant portion of the senior leadership bought their position. Their weatlh (which is siphoned off from government spending) is often invested in western defence industries. Rising tensions are great for their investment portfolios. The PLA itself has no interestin actually going to war with Taiwan, why would they kill the golden goose. They are on to a nice little earner.

There will be no war over Taiwan.

Asturias56

26th Mar 2022, 07:48

NMC - that's as maybe but they still manage to build an awful lot of ships compared to everyone else..............

golder

26th Mar 2022, 13:16

china can also 'buy' islands.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-03-25/australia-pm-reacts-china-solomon-islands-draft-military/100938958Solomon Islands defends plans to expand security ties with China, as Canberra, Wellington express concern

Big Pistons Forever

26th Mar 2022, 16:43

NMC - that's as maybe but they still manage to build an awful lot of ships compared to everyone else..............

Russia has an awful lot of military hardware but is not doing so well. I expect many of the structural issues that exists with the Russian military also exist in the PLA. The bottom line is military competence comes from fighting, that is one reason why the US armed forces are so good. The PLA has zero warfighting experience and on the job training gets really expensive really quick.....

I think an invasion of Taiwan would play out exactly the same way the Ukrainian invasion is going. China would fail to defeat the Taiwanese forces and be reduced to conducting an indiscriminate bombing campaign. Dictatorships can never have a truly effective military because the leadership will incentivize loyalty to the supreme leader over military competence and exercises become heavily choregraphed theater instead of learning events.

Asturias56

27th Mar 2022, 08:21

In theory you're right about Dictatorships but democracies (other than the UK) did very badly in Europe in WW2

Lookleft

27th Mar 2022, 11:35

but democracies (other than the UK) did very badly in Europe in WW2

The only reason the UK didn't do as badly as the other democracies was a body of water called the English Channel.

Asturias56

27th Mar 2022, 17:16

It being Mother's Day I am reminded of my dear Mum who believed that she, General Montgomery, and Mr Churchill won the War between them - with help from Uncle Joe of course. It was only very late in her life she realised that Dover- Calais was only 30 miles.....................

"why weren't we told?" she exclaimed.................

etudiant

27th Mar 2022, 17:16

West Coast

30th Mar 2022, 04:55

The US forces may be good, but since WW2 that has not translated into winning.
In contrast, the Chinese seem to be very good at winning by means of bloodless engagements that advance China's interests.
Golder's post above (1230) is a case in point, while attention is focused on the SCS build up, China develops another client relationship.
I'd expect Taiwan to get similar treatment. There are pragmatic governments in China and Taiwan. Imho they are just haggling about the price.

I don’t know as I agree. The difference between remaining to some degree sovereign or subject to Beijing is the too far apart to translate into a minor, negotiable difference. As the folks in Taiwan watched the happenings in HK, I have to imagine they have no stomach for the Chinese way. To some degree parallels to what’s occurring in Ukraine as well.

Business partners with China, sure. A vassal state, I doubt it.

ORAC

12th Apr 2022, 14:14

Beware the Chinese bearing gifts…

Anyone received a freebie from a Chinese company as a gift?

https://twitter.com/ntarnopolsky/status/1513770263569182720?s=21&t=pe53rxiKoJOPGozVJMnLtQ

The Shin Bet is investigating possible listening devices embedded in Passover gifts sent to Israeli ministries from the Chinese embassy. At least one thermal mug turned over to the office of government services by a minister contained a "suspicious component”.

layman

13th Apr 2022, 02:45

Probably old news to most on here. Brief look but couldn't find the 2018 article (my poor search skills?)

In 2018 it was alleged the servers at the African Union were downloading to Shanghai each night. When confronted, the Chinese apparently offered to supply, at no / minimal cost, a whole new African Union headquarters, equipped with Chinese computers.

New Allegations That China Spied on the AU Spark a Flashback to Similar Accusations in 2018 - The China Africa Project (https://chinaafricaproject.com/2020/12/17/new-allegations-that-china-spied-on-the-au-spark-a-flashback-to-similar-accusations-in-2018/)Reuters’ exclusive report (https://chinaafricaproject.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=de6c715223b42ee6c619dbe2f&id=cd4736f26a&e=c1363e0aab) that suspected Chinese hackers penetrated the African Union’s IT networks to siphon off data prompted many to think “uh oh, here we go again,” and recalling similar accusations back in 2018.

In 2018, the French newspaper Le Monde published a report (https://chinaafricaproject.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=de6c715223b42ee6c619dbe2f&id=3205bf2f5d&e=c1363e0aab) that was also later confirmed by the Financial Times (https://chinaafricaproject.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=de6c715223b42ee6c619dbe2f&id=c95775d63d&e=c1363e0aab) that Chinese entities had allegedly inserted so-called “back doors” on the AU’s computer network. For five years, according to those reports, massive data dumps took place at night, with countless files purportedly transferred from the AU HQ in Addis to servers located in Shanghai. (https://chinaafricaproject.us6.list-manage.com/track/click?u=de6c715223b42ee6c619dbe2f&id=a73708cd97&e=c1363e0aab)

layman

13th Apr 2022, 02:46

Sorry, ORAC, didn't see your heading ... but now I can't change mine

ORAC

13th Apr 2022, 17:26

https://thepressfree.com/the-chinese-companies-trying-to-buy-strategic-islands/

The Chinese companies trying to buy strategic islands

Asturias56

14th Apr 2022, 07:34

Good luck! They'll find it another bottomless pit at the the edge of the world that can be taken out at anytime

over the years they've poured cash into S America and Africa and TBH have very little to show for it

Lonewolf_50

14th Apr 2022, 17:06

Asturias56

15th Apr 2022, 09:46

Yes - it was the main Japanese base before the Battle of the Coral Sea. Used to be the Capital of the Solomon Islands until 1942

Sleepy hollow since WW2

fitliker

15th Apr 2022, 12:25

https://thepressfree.com/the-chinese-companies-trying-to-buy-strategic-islands/

The Chinese companies trying to buy strategic islands
Their are probably going to build a Casino , so their floating casinos can visit and gamble . They must be feeling lucky . After buying so many politicians and providing the politicians family members with so many great business opportunities. They even managed to get Top generals on the phone 24/7 . A small island is nice , but owning a swamp might be more practical and cheaper than war .

Prunus Dessicata

15th Apr 2022, 17:57

Putting a Chinse stamp of ownership upon islands which they believe they have practically owned for half a millennium or more might be quite an emotional thing, for them..

Asturias56

16th Apr 2022, 08:22

:E - well that's one way of getting volunteers to come .............

Lonewolf_50

16th Apr 2022, 17:10

Yes - it was the main Japanese base before the Battle of the Coral Sea. Used to be the Capital of the Solomon Islands until 1942
Sleepy hollow since WW2 ^^ Those who fail to learn the lessons of history, etc. :p
Among other reasons, the US Marines landed on Guadalcanal to take over/preempt use of the Japanese airfield being built there. (FWIW, Tulagi was the more direct objective of Operation Watchtower, but once the airfield's construction became evident the scope of the operation expanded). The Imperial Japanese Navy (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_Imperial_Navy) (IJN) had occupied Tulagi (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasion_of_Tulagi_(May_1942)) in May and had constructed a seaplane base nearby. Allied concern grew when, in early July, the IJN began constructing a large airfield at Lunga Point (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunga_Point) on nearby Guadalcanal – from such a base Japanese long-range bombers would threaten the sea lines of communication from the West Coast of the Americas to the populous East Coast of Australia.

ORAC

23rd Apr 2022, 05:51

Well that lesson from the UKR war didn’t take long to sink in. I presume they were buying some, but the number and speed of deployment seems very large and rapid.

Taiwan setting up 20-25 squadrons to operate shore-base anti-ship missiles ? Alert 5 (http://alert5.com/2022/04/22/taiwan-setting-up-20-25-squadrons-to-operate-shore-base-anti-ship-missiles/)

Taiwan setting up 20-25 squadrons to operate shore-base anti-ship missiles

Taiwan is in the process of standing up between 20 to 25 squadrons in its navy to operate three types of anti-ship missiles.

Media reports in Taiwan say these units will be equipped with Hsiung Feng II, Hsiung Feng III, extended-range Hsiung Feng III, and Harpoon missiles in the future.

To support these units, new facilities such as ammunition depots, a driver training center, a maintenance center, and garages, will be built over the next few years.

The strategy will be to send these units to mountainous areas and tunnels during wartime to protect them against incoming attacks.

These squadrons are expected to be fully established by 2026.

For more information, hit the Source below

Source (https://www.upmedia.mg/news_info.php?Type=1&SerialNo=142897)

https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1000x666/image_f23118193afd11cd4c6376eaa7f3fe7f0fd3645c.jpeg

Asturias56

23rd Apr 2022, 12:51

Couple of articles in the Economist this week about the need for Taiwan to adopt the strategy promulgated there about 15 years ago of a lot more "small" weapons (as in Ukraine) and fewer big ticket items from the USA

fdr

24th Apr 2022, 08:19

Well that lesson from the UKR war didn’t take long to sink in. I presume they were buying some, but the number and speed of deployment seems very large and rapid.

Taiwan setting up 20-25 squadrons to operate shore-base anti-ship missiles
Taiwan is in the process of standing up between 20 to 25 squadrons in its navy to operate three types of anti-ship missiles.
Media reports in Taiwan say these units will be equipped with Hsiung Feng II, Hsiung Feng III, extended-range Hsiung Feng III, and Harpoon missiles in the future.
To support these units, new facilities such as ammunition depots, a driver training center, a maintenance center, and garages, will be built over the next few years.
The strategy will be to send these units to mountainous areas and tunnels during wartime to protect them against incoming attacks.
These squadrons are expected to be fully established by 2026.

If anyone can stand up to an aggressor effectively it would be Taiwan. They are fairly well prepared but were aiming towards symmetrical response which is a difficult proposition. They need to outthink rather than out supply chain the Chinese. Once the noise starts there is limited resupply capacity, so they need a very large ready reserve distributed across the island in all of the hideouts and bomb shelters. China can interdict resupply so that has to be on side. OTOH, China has the highest amount of debt of any country in the world, and it continues to get worse, the building bubble has been coming since 1995. Yes it arbitraged its way into the consumer market of the USA and Europe, but it has produced affluence of its domestic market through the effects of the property bubble, and that has started to show signs of imminent collapse. A fantastic time to alienate all of the rest of your customers, just like Basil Fawlty.

Taiwan has spent a lot on conventional defense forces, and they will not survive unscathed the first minutes of an attack, so the asymmetric means of fighting would seem to offer a better likelihood of a successful defense.

China has an economic and demographic problem, that may increase the potential of a bad day out. Much like Putin, but China also has an increasing potential to have a food shortage later this year, and if coupled with a financial bubble collapses, a distraction might look appealing which usually is regretted later.