The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

[Prawn2king4]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1193485.shtml

[ORAC]

Hmmm, from the above....

In response to the Pentagon's statement, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zhao Lijian said at a regular press conference on Friday that Xisha Islands are indisputably China's inherent territory. China's military exercises in the seas off Xisha Islands are within our sovereignty and beyond reproach.


Also known as the Paracel Islands.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paracel_Islands#21st-century_events_and_land_reclamation

On July 12, 2016, an arbitral tribunal under the auspices of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_Court_of_Arbitration) at The Hague (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hague) backed the Philippines in an arbitration proceedings against China's claim on the territories within the "nine-dash line (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine-dash_line)" which include the Paracel Islands, saying that it is unlawful under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Convention_on_the_Law_of_the_Sea) (UNCLOS). The tribunal argued that there was no evidence that China had historically exercised exclusive control over the waters or resources, hence there was "no legal basis for China to claim historic rights" over the nine-dash line.......

[jolihokistix]

Or to rephrase, "The Paracel Islands, (also referred to by the Chinese as the Xisha)".

[Lyneham Lad]

More potential for 'international incidents'? In The Times this afternoon.

US sends aircraft carriers to South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2263541a-bf74-11ea-bb37-3d3cce807650?shareToken=cb1a304554ff96bfb651e37d214d41db)

Two nuclear-powered US aircraft carriers have begun exercises in the South China Sea while China’s military carried out drills in the same contested region.

The USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan entered the sea over the weekend, the first time two American carriers have operated together in the area since September 2014. They were escorted by guided-missile cruisers and destroyers.

Rights and sovereignty claims in the sea, and China’s reclamation and fortification of contested islands, have been a source of growing tension between Washington and Beijing. China claims almost the entire area but other nations in the region have competing claims, and the US and its allies regard it as international waters.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy began military drills last week around the disputed Paracel Islands (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-building-military-base-on-disputed-bombay-reef-in-the-paracel-islands-0gt76mpg9), which are also claimed by Vietnam. One amphibious warship was spotted along with a number of Chinese coastguard vessels on satellite imagery. The Chinese naval exercise was to due to finish yesterday.

There has been no sign of China’s two aircraft carriers operating in the area, avoiding what could be a potentially combustible combination as the two US carrier strike groups arrived. Nonetheless the arrival of two US carriers will be viewed in Beijing as deliberately provocative.

The US Pacific Fleet has downplayed the decision, emphasising that the naval operation was not in response to political or world events. It is still a significant show of force, demonstrating America’s determination to continue defending the right of commercial shipping to transit through the South China Sea.

A US Navy spokesman said the carrier operations were being conducted to “support a free and open Indo-Pacific”.

A third American carrier, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, is also in the Pacific (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-carriers-return-to-challenge-china-in-the-western-pacific-x5wrhpn6t). It is back in service after being forced to dock in Guam because of a coronavirus outbreak.

[Asturias56]

"Nonetheless the arrival of two US carriers will be viewed in Beijing as deliberately provocative"

That is the whole point I thought?

[Prawn2king4]

It's possible that the US has wind of, or are taking precautions against, a more serious show of aggresion towards Taiwan, whilst the majority of the world's attention is directed elsewhere.

[ORAC]

Political Security

Grauniad:

On Tuesday the official Procuratorial Daily announced China had launched a special taskforce to ramp up political policing to maintain social stability on the mainland.

The taskforce should “crack down on all kinds of infiltration, subversion, sabotage, violent terrorist activities, ethnic separatist activities, and extreme religious activities” according to the undated notes from a meeting of the taskforce published in the paper on Monday.

The main responsibility of the taskforce is stated as safeguarding China’s political system. “Political security is related to national safety and people’s well-being,” according to the notes.....

[Imagegear]

How many nations are now in hock to this country, and abhor the situation they have themselves created. It will take a lot of commitment to undo this amoebic commercial and military infiltration.

Most countries want to pull the economic plug but cannot, or will not accept the level of pain that such a move would require. I suspect China is fast reaching the point of becoming a pariah state, if it is not there already. The UN is infiltrated, toothless and incapable of telling it like it is.

A new cold war is upon us, and the world will have to stand as one if the direction of this state is to be changed. Russia will have to decide if its raison d'être lies to the East or to the West in it's alliances, if the wrong decision is made, life in its current form will end forever. Is this the way China sees this playing out?

IG

[GeeRam]

How many nations are now in hock to this country, and abhor the situation they have themselves created.

Probably easier to list the ones that aren't......!

[Buster Hyman]

Most countries want to pull the economic plug but cannot, or will not accept the level of pain that such a move would require.
But some are trying though.

https://www.wionews.com/world/kenya-court-rejects-chinas-multi-billion-dollar-bri-rail-project-308428

[Lyneham Lad]

In Flight Global:-
India to order 21 MiG-29s, 12 Su-30MKIs amid China tensions (https://www.flightglobal.com/fixed-wing/india-to-order-21-mig-29s-12-su-30mkis-amid-china-tensions/139133.article)

India’s Defence Acquisition Council has approved the acquisition of 33 new Russian fighters, comprising 21 RAC MiG-29s and 12 Sukhoi Su-30MKIs.

In addition, the Indian air force’s existing fleet of 59 MiG-29s will be upgraded to the MiG-29M standard, says the nation’s defence ministry.

The value of the new MiG deal is pegged at INR74 billion ($964 million), and the Su-30MKI deal at INR107 billion. The Su-30MKIs will be locally produced by Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL).

The acquisitions are part of a broader INR389 billion package of defence spending that provides weapons and equipment for India’s army and navy as well.

In addition to new aircraft and upgrades, the air force will also get an unspecified number of the locally-developed Astra beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile.

The acquisition of the MiGs, which has long been discussed in Indian media, was given fresh impetus following a recent border squabble with China that resulted in the deaths of several Indian soldiers and an unspecified number of Chinese soldiers. Tensions over the incident are still strong.

While the addition of new fighters and the upgrading of older MiG-29s will go some way to shoring up New Delhi’s defensive capabilities, the pace of India’s airpower development has lagged that of China’s for the last two decades.

The Indian air force has several outstanding requirements for new aircraft, including a long-running deal for 110 advanced fighters. This process essentially replaced the torturous, yet unfulfilled, medium multi-role combat aircraft acquisition of the 2000s and early 2010s.

Candidates include the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-15EX, Dassault Rafale, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-16V (rebadged the F-21 for the Indian deal), and Saab Gripen E. New Delhi’s direction on this requirement is far from clear, with Indian officials publicly flirting with the idea of modernising the air force fleet with locally-produced types, namely the HAL-built Tejas and developmental Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft.

The re-emergence of great power tensions could give these and other Indian airpower requirements a renewed emphasis.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/14/south-china-sea-us-says-beijings-claims-to-disputed-area-completely-unlawful

South China Sea: US says Beijing's claims to disputed area 'completely unlawful'

The US secretary of state Mike Pompeo has said Washington will treat Beijing’s pursuit of resources in the South China Sea (https://www.theguardian.com/world/south-china-sea) as illegal, inflaming tensions between the two countries and ramping up support for Southeast Asian nations. It was the latest forceful statement by President Donald Trump’s administration to challenge China (https://www.theguardian.com/world/china), which he has increasingly cast as an enemy ahead of the November presidential election.

“We are making clear: Beijing’s claims to offshore resources across most of the South China Sea are completely unlawful, as is its campaign of bullying to control them,” Pompeo said in a statement. “The world will not allow Beijing to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire.”

China on Tuesday reiterated that it was firmly opposed to Washington’s assertions, and rejected as “completely unjustified” the allegation that Beijing bullied its neighbours.

“The United States is not a country directly involved in the disputes. However, it has kept interfering in the issue,” the Chinese Embassy in the United States said in statement published on its website. “Under the pretext of preserving stability, it is flexing muscles, stirring up tension and inciting confrontation in the region.”

The United States has long rejected Beijing’s sweeping claims in the South China Sea (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/mar/28/beijing-military-bases-south-china-sea-ready), which is both home to valuable oil and gas deposits and a vital waterway for the world’s commerce. Pompeo’s statement goes further by explicitly siding with Southeast Asian nations including the Philippines and Vietnam, after years of the United States saying it took no position on individual claims.

“America stands with our Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law,” Pompeo said. “We stand with the international community in defense of freedom of the seas and respect for sovereignty and reject any push to impose ‘might makes right’ in the South China Sea or the wider region.”......

Pompeo issued his statement to mark the fourth anniversary of a tribunal decision that sided with the Philippines against the nine-dash line. Pompeo said that China, based on the court decision, cannot make claims based on the Scarborough Reef or Spratly Islands, a vast uninhabited archipelago.

The United States as a result now rejects Beijing’s claims in the waters surrounding Vanguard Bank off Vietnam, Lucania Shoals off Malaysia, waters considered in Brunei’s exclusive economic zone and Natuna Besar off Indonesia, Pompeo said.

“Any PRC action to harass other states’ fishing or hydrocarbon development in these waters – or to carry out such activities unilaterally – is unlawful,” Pompeo said.

Pompeo also rejected Beijing’s southernmost claim of James Shoal, some 1,800km (1,150 miles) from the Chinese mainland, saying the area, administered by Malaysia, was completely submerged by water and therefore cannot determine a maritime zone......

[ORAC]

https://www.pprune.org/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&p=10828921

Japan highlights F-35 acquisition, military ops amid pandemic in new whitepaper

MELBOURNE, Australia — In its latest whitepaper, Japan has discussed its impending acquisition (https://www.defensenews.com/smr/2020/07/09/us-gives-the-green-light-to-japans-massive-23b-f-35-buy/) of F-35B fighter jets and highlighted efforts by regional militaries to expand their influence (https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2019/05/31/much-to-chinas-ire-japans-regional-influence-is-becoming-the-norm/) and activities despite the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.

The full document, released July 14 in Japanese, contains a section on the short-takeoff-and-vertical-landing variant of the Lockheed Martin aircraft, noting that with regional countries making “remarkable progress” in air power modernization, the country needed to respond in kind.

The whitepaper highlighted the operational flexibility of the F-35B, noting the jet’s ability to operate without the need for long runways, which would enable the Japan Air Self-Defense Force to significantly expand the number of locations from whence the service can conduct air superiority operations. The whitepaper noted there are currently 20 airports and air bases throughout Japan that have runways sufficiently long enough to support JASDF air superiority operations. Operating the F-35B would theoretically allow the JASDF to expand that number to 45, which would include some of the runways on Japan’s far-flung southern islands.

Japan has plans to eventually acquire 42 F-35Bs to operate alongside its planned fleet of 105 conventional-takeoff-and-landing F-35As, making it the top customer of the F-35 (https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2018/12/18/with-massive-f-35-increase-japan-is-now-biggest-international-buyer/) outside the United States. The 42 F-35Bs include 18 to be contracted over the next five years, with Japan setting aside approximately $795 million in its current defense budget to acquire six. It is also converting the helicopter destroyer Izumo, which has a 245-meter flight deck and was originally designed to carry helicopters primarily for anti-submarine warfare, to operate the F-35B.

The air defense challenge facing the JASDF was also highlighted in April this year, when the Ministry of Defense said the service scrambled its fighters a total of 947 times over the past year to intercept and monitor (https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2019/03/26/japanese-jets-intercept-chinese-anti-submarine-aircraft-says-tokyo/) foreign military aircraft operating in the country’s air defense identification zone (https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/06/26/its-time-to-rethink-japans-missile-defenses/). Chinese aircraft accounted for 675 intercepts, and Russian aircraft Russian made up 268. (The remaining four were not identified.)

The whitepaper also noted a continuing pattern of operations conducted by military vessels and aircraft primarily from China and, to a lesser degree, Russia in the waters and airspace surrounding Japan. The government pledged to continue to closely monitor such activities. It also noted that such activities have continued despite the COVID-19 pandemic, warning that a prolonged global pandemic “may exert various impacts on countries’ military capability.”

The government added that another potential effect of the pandemic was the likelihood that it may “expose and intensify strategic competition among countries intending to create international and regional orders more preferable to themselves and to expand their influence.” The whitepaper also accused China of spreading disinformation “amid growing social uncertainties and confusion due to the spread of infection.”

[Prawn2king4]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1194778.shtml

[GlobalNav]

The IAF must need something to keep their maintenance department busy.

[ORAC]

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/priti-patel-china-clash-hong-kong-556618

Priti Patel sets up China clash as she prepares to extend offer of UK citizenship to Hong Kong residents born after handover

[Asturias56]

Actually it wasn't Priti - BoJo announced it a week or so ago - still she needs all the positive media coverage she can get

In fact this could be as good for the UK as all the Kenyan Asians who came in way back

[Imagegear]

Even better I would say..

IG

[West Coast]

https://warontherocks.com/2020/07/the-risks-of-australias-solo-deterrence-wager/?fbclid=IwAR1IGYTUkmB35W_MWty8LFStmBcpw0eInzUciTmKktFAOB0YDE rj0Wh1GUA

Interesting read.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/india-teams-up-with-us-for-anti-china-war-games-tqptbrp2z

India teams up with US for anti-China war games

Indian and American warships will hold joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean in the coming days in a show of unity prompted by mounting Chinese aggression throughout the region.

An American carrier group led by the USS Nimitz, the largest vessel in the US navy, passed through the Malacca Strait into the Indian Ocean on Saturday. There it will link up with Indian destroyers and submarines off the coast of the Andaman and Nicobar islands for a series of war games, according to Indian media reports.

The two countries have held regular joint naval exercises for more than a decade but the latest round has assumed greater significance amid growing concerns over China’s political and military ambitions in the South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/superpowers-face-off-over-south-china-sea-as-taiwan-drills-for-war-mxrmmcwrq) and the greater Indo Pacific region. Chinese troops are still encamped on Indian soil in Ladakh, high in the Himalayas, after clashes (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indians-enraged-by-savage-chinese-attack-on-soldiers-at-ladakh-border-9ss3mnq2r) along the border last month that left 20 Indian soldiers dead, the most serious such incident between the rival nuclear powers for 45 years......

Despite forging closer military ties with the US, Delhi has maintained a strategic neutrality between the two sides until now. The pressure has increased under the Trump administration, however, and the recent violence, prompting a surge of anti-China sentiment throughout India, has raised American hopes that Delhi is now leaning towards a closer alliance with the West......

In a further sign that hostilities with China have prompted a strategic rethink in Delhi, India is expected to invite Australia to join its annual naval exercises with the US and Japan. The move will strengthen the “Quad”, an alliance of Indo-Pacific powers that has formed to counter China’s rising sea power.

India had blocked Australia’s participation in the exercises for years, viewing it as too provocative towards Beijing, but Narendra Modi, the prime minister, appears to have had a change of heart. India signed a significant defence agreement with Australia last month, allowing troops from the two countries to use each other’s military bases......

In recent weeks Chinese ships have sunk a Vietnamese fishing boat and harassed Malaysian oil exploration vessels in the South China Sea. With the controversial new security law stripping Hong Kong of its remaining autonomy, China has again laid claim to Taiwan.

India, like the US, has become increasingly alarmed at China’s military expansion throughout the Indian Ocean. Beijing has established its first overseas military base in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa, with a second expected to follow at the Pakistani port of Gwadar, close to the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway at the mouth of the Gulf. In 2018 China acquired a port in Sri Lanka, off India’s southern coast, and has courted India’s neighbours throughout the region, leaving Delhi’s influence in its own backyard looking increasingly fragile.

https://twitter.com/maverick_bharat/status/1285075666665267200?s=21

[tartare]

Recorded on hidden Oval Office digital recorder...

"Mr President, if I may be blunt sir, given the pandemic, the economy, and the latest poll numbers, things are looking dicey for November. That said, even a small confrontation of some type in the South China Sea sometime in the next 100 days could shift public sentiment... I'm sorry sir, that was three syllables in a row; could change the public's mood. We suggest the administration start by escalating the tough anti-China talk as soon as possible..."

[West Coast]

Given the limits of power projection, it’s encouraging to see some are thinking outside the box when it comes to sustaining the force once it’s there.


https://warontherocks.com/2020/07/cocaine-logistics-for-the-marine-corps/?fbclid=IwAR1FZpVy-KIjlbHXyNdeeZcqwzMqDb9611FkKmsr6BMSCOxi9uaC46R1tyI

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/beijing-sends-fighter-jets-to-disputed-island-chain-in-the-south-china-sea-3tdd99vm7

Beijing sends fighter jets to disputed island chain in the South China Sea

Beijing has stationed eight warplanes on a strategic disputed island in the South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/superpowers-face-off-over-south-china-sea-as-taiwan-drills-for-war-mxrmmcwrq), escalating tensions over territorial claims.

Satellite images from July 15 showed at least four aircraft on Woody Island in the Paracels chain, believed to be J-11B air superiority fighters. More pictures the following day showed them in a different area of the island along with four other aircraft, thought to be JH-7 anti-ship fighter-bombers, according to Radio Free Asia, a broadcast service backed by the US government......

When asked about the deployment to Woody Island, Beijing insisted that it was within its rights to do so. “The Paracels are Chinese territory,” said Wang Wenbin, a foreign ministry spokesman.

Beijing has reclaimed land and militarised several islands in the Paracels and the Spratly chain, setting up two new regions this year to cement claims.......


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/622x350/image_11fc110a9316630f456cec37cf0a34aafe569155.jpeg

[etudiant]

Sure seems that China is not backing off at all. They are in possession, which is 9/10th of the law as well, plus they are in a position of greater strength in the South China Sea than any outside player.

[Not_a_boffin]

Inaction accrues cost of its own.

[ORAC]

Australia steps up to the plate.......

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jul/25/australia-declares-there-is-no-legal-basis-to-beijings-claims-in-south-china-sea

Australia declares 'there is no legal basis' to Beijing’s claims in South China Sea

Australia has declared “there is no legal basis” to China’s territorial and maritime claims in the South China Sea, marking an escalation of recent tensions with Beijing and bringing Canberra further in line with Washington.

The declaration, made in a submission to the United Nations on Thursday (https://www.un.org/depts/los/clcs_new/submissions_files/mys_12_12_2019/2020_07_23_AUS_NV_UN_001_OLA-2020-00373.pdf), comes after the United States hardened its position earlier this month, (https://www.state.gov/u-s-position-on-maritime-claims-in-the-south-china-sea/) accusing Beijing of a “completely unlawful … campaign of bullying” to control the sea.

Australia’s shift in position comes as Australia’s foreign affairs minister, Marise Payne, and the defence minister, Linda Reynolds, prepare to travel to Washington next week to meet with the US secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and the secretary of defence, Mark Esper, for the 2020 Australia-United States Ministerial Consultations (Ausmin).

The declaration to the UN said: “Australia rejects China’s claim to ‘historic rights’ or ‘maritime rights and interests’ as established in the ‘long course of historical practice’ in the South China Sea.”

Australia’s declaration mentioned the objections and complaints held by the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia in regards to Beijing’s actions in the South China Sea, and “rejects” the validity of “land building activities” used to create artificial islands.

The declaration said Australia does not accept China’s claim of sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and Spratly Islands, after Australian warships encountered China’s navy near the Spratly Islands earlier this month (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/23/south-china-sea-australian-warships-encounter-chinese-navy-in-disputed-waters) when taking part in drills with Japan and the United States in the Philippine Sea.

It notes “the Tribunal in the 2016 South China Sea Arbitral Award found these claims to be inconsistent with UNCLOS (United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) and, to the extent of that inconsistency, invalid”.

“There is no legal basis for China to draw straight baselines connecting the outermost points of maritime features or ‘island groups’ in the South China Sea, including around the ‘Four Sha’ or ‘continental’ or ‘outlying’ archipelagos,” it said.

“Australia rejects any claims to internal waters, territorial sea, exclusive economic zone and continental shelf based on such straight baselines.

“Australia also rejects China’s claims to maritime zones generated by submerged features, or low-tide elevations in a manner inconsistent with UNCLOS. Land building activities or other forms of artificial transformation cannot change the classification of a feature under UNCLOS … the Australian government does not accept that artificially transformed features can ever acquire the status of an island.”.....

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times today - US sends more planes to keep watch on China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/1a1cae20-d043-11ea-944f-2340d12eef24?shareToken=e5afad55bbf70f281cc0ab61ea3529fc)

The US is increasing aerial surveillance over the South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/superpowers-face-off-over-south-china-sea-as-taiwan-drills-for-war-mxrmmcwrq) to a record level as relations between Washington and Beijing deteriorate and fears grow for the safety of Taiwan.

Spy planes from the US navy, air force and army are involved in an apparent three-pronged drive to track Chinese submarines and monitor activity by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), which has redoubled training for operations aimed at Taiwan. In Beijing, procurement documents from the China State Shipbuilding Corporation have revealed plans to build an amphibious assault ship ideal for island invasion.

China has long considered Taiwan a breakaway province to be brought back under its control, by force if necessary, while the US has a pact with the island to ensure that it has hardware and technology it needs to defend itself. Tensions between the two superpowers (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-how-the-west-can-counter-the-rise-of-an-authoritarian-superpower-0nsw023st) have heightened in recent days, with tit-for-tat closures of consulates (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/beijing-retaliation-threat-after-us-orders-houston-consulate-closure-wz7qbvfdx).

The development comes as New Zealand has announced the suspension of its extradition treaty with Hong Kong in the wake of China’s decision to implement its strict national security law on the territory. “New Zealand can no longer trust that Hong Kong’s criminal justice system is sufficiently independent from China,” Winston Peters, the foreign affairs minister, said.

“If China in future shows adherence to the one country, two systems framework then we could reconsider this decision.” New Zealand follows Australia, Canada and the UK, which have also halted their extradition treaties.

As many as 50 US military patrols have been carried out this month involving a range of surveillance and signals intelligence aircraft, according to a think tank in Beijing.

The Pentagon describes such missions as “routine patrols in international airspace” but there is evidence that the number has been significantly stepped up, particularly in the strategic Bashi Channel, south of Taiwan.

The Chinese air force has also been active in recent weeks over the channel, which runs from the southern end of Taiwan to the island of Luzon in the Philippines. China has been increasing the pressure on Taiwan, launching military exercises involving amphibious warfare operations.

The US sent six reconnaissance aircraft and two refuelling tankers to the Bashi Channel this month, according to the South China Sea Probing Initiative, a think tank linked to Peking University. It said a US air force RC-135 Rivet Joint electronic surveillance aircraft was seen entering Taiwan airspace yesterday.

A US navy EP-3E Orion reconnaissance aircraft, thought to be based in Okinawa, was also spotted yesterday flying within 60 miles of Guangdon province, which borders Hong Kong. US navy P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine aircraft have been part of the patrols monitoring the Bashi Channel and the South China Sea for PLA navy submarine movements.

The surveillance patrols over the South China Sea have also involved the US army’s RC-12X Guardrail signals intelligence aircraft, used for snooping on enemy communications.

The heightened US surveillance missions have coincided with an official statement by Washington rejecting Beijing’s claims of sovereignty over islands in the South China Sea. The statement by Mike Pompeo, secretary of state, was the first time the US had taken sides in the long-running regional dispute over the ownership of the islands. The Australian government also declared that China’s claims were unlawful.

[havoc]

As hostile as China has been in the South China Sea toward other nations fishing fleet, this seems interesting as Ecuador is now patrolling the area. (IMO)

https://www.foxnews.com/world/china-ship-fleet-galapagos-islands-ecuador-navy-alert

A large fleet of some 260 Chinese (https://www.foxnews.com/category/world/world-regions/china) fishing vessels has been spotted in the waters surrounding the Galápagos Islands (https://www.foxnews.com/travel/coronavirus-traveler-stranded-pandemic-lockdown-unique) off the coast of Ecuador (https://www.foxnews.com/category/world/world-regions/latin-america), the country’s navy officials said last week.The Ecuadorian Navy said it has increasing patrolling to ensure the Chinese ships do not enter the exclusive economic zone around the Galápagos Islands, where 19th-century British explorer Charles Darwin developed his theory of evolution, Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecuador-fishing/ecuador-monitoring-fleet-of-fishing-vessels-near-galapagos-idUSKCN24O369) reported.

“We are on alert, conducting surveillance, patrolling to avoid an incident such as what happened in 2017,” Ecuador’s Defense Minister Oswaldo Jarrin said at a press conference. Three years ago, a Chinese ship was apprehended in the Galápagos Marine Reserve carrying 300 tons of marine wildlife -- mostly sharks, including the hammerhead, which is near extinction.

“There is a corridor that is international waters, that’s where the fleet is located,” Jarrin added.

The Galápagos – as well as an about 188-mile radius of the surrounding ocean waters – was designated a Unesco world heritage site (https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/1/) in 1978 for its unique marine wildlife and biodiversity. The Chinese fleet is sitting about 200 miles from the nine-island archipelago in international waters, The Guardian (https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/27/chinese-fishing-vessels-galapagos-islands) reported.

Former Ecuadorian environment minister, Yolanda Kakabadse, along with Roque Sevilla, a former mayor of Ecuador's capital, Quito, told The Guardian on Monday that they were developing a “protection strategy” to ask the Chinese fleet not to return, enforce international agreements protecting migratory species and extend the exclusive economic zone to a 350-mile radius from the islands.

“This fleet’s size and aggressiveness against marine species is a big threat to the balance of species in the Galápagos,” Kakabadse said. To that sentiment, Sevilla echoed: “Unchecked Chinese fishing just on the edge of the protected zone is ruining Ecuador’s efforts to protect marine life in the Galápagos.”

Chinese fishing vessels annually come to the international waters around the Galapagos, but this year, the fleet is significantly larger than before and has come within a closer range of the islands.

Ecuador President Lenín Moreno tweeted his support in preserving the Galápagos Islands on Saturday, writing in Spanish: “We will work in a regional position to defend and protect the Exclusive Economic Zone around the Galápagos Marine Reserve, one of the richest fishing areas and a hotbed of life for the entire planet.”

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-deploys-anti-ship-bombers-in-south-china-sea-bwwxhd5qh

China deploys anti-ship bombers in South China Sea

China has debuted two anti-ship jet bombers in “high-intensity” military drills in the disputed South China Sea, in an apparent show of force against the US and its Asian neighbours.

It was the first time the Chinese (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/china?page=1) military officially revealed the H-6J bomber, a variant of a Soviet Tupelov attack bomber that can carry cruise missiles. The bombers, which are believed to have been in service for several years, were used to strike “surface targets” during round-the-clock exercises, the Chinese military said.

Senior Colonel Ren Guoqiang, a spokesman for the defence ministry, said that the People’s Liberation Army Southern Theatre Command navy-aviation force had carried out “high-intensity, all-day training over the South China Sea involving new types of warplanes such as H-6G and H-6J”. “It completed exercises long-distance strike and attacks on water surface targets,” he said. “It achieved expected results.”.....

“We demand the US to stop making wrong speeches, to stop its military provocative acts in the South China Sea, and to stop sowing discord in the region,” Senior Colonel Ren said, promising that Beijing would only be more resolved in the face of US provocations.

Wang Ya’nan, a Chinese aviation industry expert and chief editor of [i]Aerospace Knowledge magazine, told the state-run Global Times that Beijing, by revealing the bombers’ exercises in detail, sought to demonstrate its capabilities. Mr Wang added that Beijing was showing restraint by not carrying out the drills at the same time as the US aircraft carrier exercises.

Meanwhile, Japan (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/japan?page=1) today took a step closer to buying long-range munitions and adopting a “pre-emptive” strike doctrine against future enemies, after the ruling Liberal Democratic Party published proposals to be considered by Shinzo Abe, the prime minister.

“Our country needs to consider ways to strengthen deterrence, including having the capability to halt ballistic missile attacks within the territory of our adversaries,” the plan produced by the defence committee said.

The document would alter Japan’s stance as a pacifist nation, whose constitution prohibits the right to wage war. It is also likely to anger China and Russia, which could fall within range of any new strike weapons......

Mr Abe has pushed for a more muscular military, arguing Japan needs to respond to a deteriorating security environment in east Asia as North Korea builds missiles and nuclear weapons, China builds a modern, powerful military and Russian forces re-engage in the region.

[Asturias56]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53171124

Some good pictures and maps in the article

Both India and China have devoted money and manpower to building roads, rail links and airfields along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) - the de facto boundary separating them - as well as modernising their military hardware in the region.

India's recent building work, including the DSDBO road, appears to have infuriated China - but China has been busy building along the border for years. Both sides tend to view the other's construction efforts as calculated moves to gain tactical advantage, and tensions flare when either announces a major project.

In the summer of 2017, the neighbours were brought to a stand-off at Doklam plateau, far to the east of Ladakh. That confrontation was also over construction - this time China attempting to extend a border road near a tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan.India plays catch-upThe completion of the DSDBO road, which connects the crucial Daulat Beg Oldi airstrip - put back in use in 2008 - to the regional capital Leh, has strengthened India's ability to move equipment quickly. The all-weather road lies about 20km from the Karakoram Pass and runs parallel to the LAC in eastern Ladakh.

India has long stationed men at Daulat Beg Oldi but, before the reactivation of the airstrip and the completion of the road, the men there could get supplies only through helicopter drops, and nothing could be removed, turning the airstrip into a "graveyard for equipment".

Additional roads and bridges are now being built to link the road with inland supply bases and border outposts on the LAC, enabling Indian patrols to go further forwa

[Lyneham Lad]

Article & photo:-

Beijing flexes its military muscle in off-shore exercises near Taiwan (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/68cac89c-d7f3-11ea-a099-b011877a86c1?shareToken=f821f66ed6f28f6b9fb01e927623095f)

Beijing has conducted maritime exercises in waters between mainland China and Taiwan as part of manoeuvres that would “play a vital role in potential military operations on the island of Taiwan”.

Chinese state media made the declaration after the military landed helicopters on a warship and then deployed soldiers in the area.

[fitliker]

Mitsubishi has new rockets and Japan is re-arming . The Japanese understand the threats and are not sitting waiting to be attacked. They have already amended their constitution to allow them to get their retaliation in first :)

[Lordflasheart]

...
... manoeuvres that would “play a vital role in potential military operations on the island of Taiwan”.

Corpen Niner and Dongsha's your Uncle, despite recent reinforcement by a Company of 200 Marines.

Simples.

...

[West Coast]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/35458/taiwans-f-16s-begin-flying-patrols-with-live-harpoon-anti-ship-missiles-to-deter-china?fbclid=IwAR1VR5G_kiNFGcKecmtMmyoQb0XNemmpILHTrnk7yt3vp cBwjJldskTfchE

message sent.

[etudiant]

Taiwan has to get nuclear weapons asap, else they are toast. They can justify it by highlighting their concern about the unregulated nuclear program in North Korea.
Obviously Ho Chi Min would have recommended a more people centric solution and set up a national compulsory military service, expecting the mainland invasion force to have to overcome 25mm armed Taiwanese.
Unfortunately, the CCP success in dealing with other potentially fractious elements suggests that this strategy is obsolete. China has shown that it is possible to imprison millions of Uighurs, based on that precedent dealing with Taiwan as a hotbed of reactionaries would be duck soup

[Lonewolf_50]

Taiwan has to get nuclear weapons asap, else they are toast. They can justify it by highlighting their concern about the unregulated nuclear program in North Korea.

Obviously Ho Chi Min would have recommended a more people centric solution and set up a national compulsory military service, expecting the mainland invasion force to have to overcome 25mm armed Taiwanese. Are you referring to Chiang KaiShek (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiang_Kai-shek)?
Ho didn't need to concern himself with defending Taiwan. He was busy defending Viet Nam, wasn't he? ;)
Unfortunately, the CCP success in dealing with other potentially fractious elements suggests that this strategy is obsolete. China has shown that it is possible to imprison millions of Uighurs, based on that precedent dealing with Taiwan as a hotbed of reactionaries would be duck soup Taiwan choosing to go nuclear: now there's an interesting way to stir the pot. Do you think they'll take that step, or are you just tossing pasta against the wall to see how much of it sticks?

[Barksdale Boy]

One of China's declared red lines for an invasion is Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons.

[Chugalug2]

One of China's declared red lines for an invasion is Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons.

It rather depends upon what comes first, doesn't it? Would the CCP dare to invade a nuclear armed Taiwan? At some point China has to be threatened rather than being left to threaten everyone else. History tells us if you don't stand up to bullies from the outset then much regret tends to follow...

[Barksdale Boy]

I stated it merely as a fact.

[Asturias56]

I think we can be sure that the Chinese security services have enough "assets" in Taiwan to get plenty of warning of a change of policy there

[West Coast]

I think we can be sure that the Chinese security services have enough "assets" in Taiwan to get plenty of warning of a change of policy there

For the policy to be an effective deterrent, it would have to be public knowledge.

Now the development of the bomb would have to be undetected, or at least plausibility deniable.

[etudiant]

One of China's declared red lines for an invasion is Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons.

I'd guess North Korea or Pakistan would be delighted to sell Taiwan both launch vehicles as well as warheads. India might even be willing to throw in some sweeteners in light of recent events.
In fact, I'd not be surprised if that discussion has already been had. I think that happens a lot faster than an invasion can be mounted.

Fact is, when the Chinese allowed North Korea to get nuclear weapons, they ensured that all of the surrounding countries would perforce get nukes of their own. South Korea, Taiwan, perhaps Viet Nam are the immediate next players, we can assume that Japan, with an active 'space program' and a very large nuclear reactor park, has already taken all the necessary steps.

[Chugalug2]

First things first. The CCP is going down a well trodden path. It's game plan seems to be :-

1. Start by picking upon a large and identifiable part of your own population and persecute them. This intimidates the remainder and curbs resistance to your following actions.
2. Deal with a part of your own country which is not under your direct control by formal agreement. Disregard that, march in, and take control.
3. Similarly march in to a neighbouring country whose population 100% in racial, cultural, and historical ways identifies similarly to your own but is recognised internationally as a separate state.
4. March into neighbouring states that have large such populations, but not 100% as in 3.
5. Then pick off the remaining neighbouring countries who have no such ties with you.

1 and 2 will probably be unopposed, just causing outrage. 3,4, and 5, if they have any sense, will already have prepared themselves for their turn in the manner that etudiant suggests.

[Asturias56]

well they've taken 70 years to get this cunning plan underway......

they're now a World Power and behaving like all the other Powers did when they had the chance

[Lordflasheart]

...

All from the brave SCMP -

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3096680/japan-places-military-standby-intrusions-dozens-chinese-fishing

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/law-and-crime/article/3096679/hong-kong-national-security-law-media-mogul-jimmy-lai

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3096813/south-china-sea-philippine-navy-chief-warns-chinese-provocation

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3096776/fighter-jets-cross-line-taiwan-strait-says-taipei-it-hosts-us

....

[Chugalug2]

well they've taken 70 years to get this cunning plan underway......

they're now a World Power and behaving like all the other Powers did when they had the chance

The apologists said much the same in the Thirties.

"They had the chance" because nobody stopped them until it was too late.

It isn't too late yet.

[Barksdale Boy]

Whatever we might think are the rights or wrongs of the matter, nothing alters the fact that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a red line for China.

[Imagegear]

Cuba and the US in 1962 comes to mind.

IG

[Asturias56]

"The apologists said much the same in the Thirties."

And ever since everyone has used it as an reason to start a war with someone............ history doesn't repeat itself exactly Chug.

I can remebr Cho En Lai was asked if they intended to invade India in '62 - he looked at the reporter and said "are you crazy? Why would we want to takeover another 500 million people (as it was in those days)? - Don't you think we have enough on our hands at home?"

[Chugalug2]

Asturias :-
history doesn't repeat itself exactly Chug.

I can remebr Cho En Lai was asked if they intended to invade India in '62 - he looked at the reporter and said "are you crazy? Why would we want to takeover another 500 million people (as it was in those days)? - Don't you think we have enough on our hands at home?"

The uniforms differ, as do the armbands and martial music I'll grant you, but the knock on the door at 0300 has the same result to all intents and purposes. This isn't China we have to face up to, it's the CCP. As to reassuring quotes from its leaders, Herr Shicklgruber told us that the Sudetenland was his last territorial claim. Didn't quite work out quite like that though, did it? When your neighbour starts frontier incidents best to take it as a prelude for something bigger. Alternatively, bury your head in the sand until it all goes away. It nearly got to Uncle Joe's dacha last time.

I agree that history doesn't repeat itself exactly. No-one says it does. But if we don't learn from it then it probably will repeat itself, exactly or not.

Time for a SE Asian NATO?

[etudiant]

Whatever we might think are the rights or wrongs of the matter, nothing alters the fact that Taiwan's acquisition of nuclear weapons would be a red line for China.

I'm not aware of any such statement by responsible Chinese officials, plus they must be aware that the North Korea nuclear breakout really transformed the situation.
South Korea is surely looking at nukes and they just got the US ok for longer range (500 mile) solid fuel missiles. Others in the area will follow, to monitor the spread, I'll be waiting for Singapore to launch its first satellite .
Viet Nam, which has fought a recent war with China and which has territorial as well as Mekong water management grievances with China, is probably the next in line.
But Taiwan surely is the most threatened and the Xi approach to dissent must be very much in the minds of Taiwan's leaders.

In short, I believe that everyone in SE Asia will have nuclear weapons within another decade. Living within reach of a bully forces states to look for better protection than an evanescent 7th fleet.

[Barksdale Boy]

etudiant

China has had such a policy for at least 25 years to my certain knowledge. On 15th April 2020, the Taiwan Affairs Office, an organ of The State Council, repeated it in the form of an article by a leading Chinese nuclear strategy expert, Yang Chengjun, Check out casus belli number 4. It's in Chinese but I'm sure you'll cope. In my experience such articles are cleared at a high level.

[rjtjrt]

.........

Time for a SE Asian NATO?

SEATO

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia_Treaty_Organization

[Chugalug2]

SEATO

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southeast_Asia_Treaty_Organization

If at first you don't succeed, then try, try, and try again....

[Asturias56]

" When your neighbour starts frontier incidents best to take it as a prelude for something bigger. " - well the Indo China border mess has been going on for the best part of 60 years so they're taking their time.

TBH I'm rather surprised they continue with building locations in the S China Sea - any analysis would indicate they have no real value if someone (anyone) comes out shooting

[Less Hair]

They seem to be meant more like tripwires. "You violated our airspace or sea and such so we are free to 'counter'-attack you" sort of thinking maybe? Just listen to the tone of those chinese comms the US Navy recorded and published.

https://youtu.be/OaKbZW0pqkM

[ORAC]

They seem to be meant more like tripwires.

Not so much lines in the sand - as sands on the line?

[etudiant]

etudiant

China has had such a policy for at least 25 years to my certain knowledge. On 15th April 2020, the Taiwan Affairs Office, an organ of The State Council, repeated it in the form of an article by a leading Chinese nuclear strategy expert, Yang Chengjun, Check out casus belli number 4. It's in Chinese but I'm sure you'll cope. In my experience such articles are cleared at a high level.

No doubt that China has had that policy in the past, but imho they decisively scuppered it when they allowed NK to go nuclear.
That decision means that all other states in the region go nuclear or go extinct.
I honestly still cannot understand why the Chinese allowed it, it is so obviously destructive to any thought of a US/China co-dominium along the Asian rim, but it also kills any Chinese aspirations for local leadership.

[West Coast]

Just what would you have expected the Chinese to do to stop NK?

Invade is about the only real answer. Sanctions wouldn’t have stopped them with the effect of having have NK quickly pivot to the west.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times.
US sends stealth bombers to counter Chinese threat (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0452e296-dcbc-11ea-982b-b376168bb3e7?shareToken=b9b64ea9686cc507ddf8accbba94913c)

Three American B-2 stealth bombers have arrived in the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia on the eve of Chinese live-firing naval exercises north of Taiwan.

It is the first time the nuclear-capable strategic bombers have been sent to the remote island since 2016, in an indication of the growing concern about China’s intentions (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-jets-enter-taiwan-airspace-during-us-visit-b55f2355k) towards Taiwan.

The bombers flew across the Pacific from Whiteman air force base in Missouri to land at Diego Garcia, part of the British Indian Ocean Territory. With their advanced stealth technology, the B-2s can penetrate enemy territory without alerting air-defence radars.


The US has been increasing its presence recently in the Indo-Pacific region as tension rises in Washington over China’s stance towards Taiwan and disputed islands in the South China Sea.

On August 16, China’s PLA Navy is to start two days of live-fire drills off Zhoushan Islands, an archipelago about 340 miles north of Taiwan.

The PLA recently completed a series of air force exercises near the islands. There are concerns in the West that China’s military exercises have been designed to simulate the seizing of Pratas or Dongsha Islands, three atolls administered by Taiwan at a strategic point between the South China Sea and the Pacific.

PLA Navy vessels must pass the islands to reach the Pacific. The arrival of the three bombers on Diego Garcia will remind Beijing of the US Air Force’s reach. China is yet to bring its own stealth bomber into service.


The B-2s are from the US 509th Bomb Wing, part of its Global Strike Command. When they went to Diego Garcia in 2016 it was also at a time of heightened tension with Beijing over its militarisation of the South China Sea.

The arrival of the military equipment in Diego Garcia coincided with China sending some new weapons to the Himalayas in a 15-week stand-off with Indian troops. The PLA added a wheeled howitzer and a vehicle-mounted version of the HJ-10 anti-tank missile system to drills there recently.

[etudiant]

Just what would you have expected the Chinese to do to stop NK?

Invade is about the only real answer. Sanctions wouldn’t have stopped them with the effect of having have NK quickly pivot to the west.


An NK pivot to the west while simultaneously running a nuclear program is a non starter even now, so probably not a concern to China.
China is, in the words of the first Kim, 'as close as lips to teeth' to NK, they provide them with food, weapons and industrial support. So China is and was critical to the NK nuclear effort.
If China tried to stop it, they clearly did not try very hard.
Still seems a very shortsighted policy imho.

[etudiant]

In The Times.
US sends stealth bombers to counter Chinese threat (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0452e296-dcbc-11ea-982b-b376168bb3e7?shareToken=b9b64ea9686cc507ddf8accbba94913c)

One has to wonder what for. Three aircraft are not much of a threat, unless nuclear armed, so no one in China will be impressed.

[West Coast]

An NK pivot to the west while simultaneously running a nuclear program is a non starter even now, so probably not a concern to China.
China is, in the words of the first Kim, 'as close as lips to teeth' to NK, they provide them with food, weapons and industrial support. So China is and was critical to the NK nuclear effort.
If China tried to stop it, they clearly did not try very hard.
Still seems a very shortsighted policy imho.

No, actually it’s not. The Norks are a pragmatic lot in many aspects, chief among them, their security. If the fat wun or his predecessors believed China would physically stop them, there would have been immediate olive branches in the mail to the US. You forget, NK has threatened China as well as the US.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-threatens-china-grave-consequences-nuclear-standoff/

[etudiant]

No, actually it’s not. The Norks are a pragmatic lot in many aspects, chief among them, their security. If the fat wun or his predecessors believed China would physically stop them, there would have been immediate olive branches in the mail to the US. You forget, NK has threatened China as well as the US.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/north-korea-threatens-china-grave-consequences-nuclear-standoff/

The US did offer NK a pivot to the west if they ditched their nuclear program, but the offer was refused.
So how could NK pivot to the west if China had blocked their nuclear effort, given the west has the same blocking posture?

I don't doubt that China tried to restrain the NK nuclear effort, but obviously they did not try very hard.
It will be hard for them now to prevent others from doing likewise, particularly as the US security blanket continues to fray.

[West Coast]

Different situation and no threat from China.

[etudiant]

Different situation and no threat from China.

True, but the constants are no different. China has sowed the wind, I'd expect the logical consequences.
Perhaps when Singapore gets the bomb there will be a recognition that the world in Asia has changed.

[grizzled]

Crucially, it's not just the world in Asia that has changed. Many posters use the phrase "the West" when "the West" is no longer the unified force it was. The unstable, unpredictable, and perhaps unwitting, Trumpian USA has weakened (greatly weakened, I would argue) and fractured the unified "West" that kept threats (perceived and real) at bay for 70 odd years.

I suggest we are in a more unstable world now than at any time since October 1962.

grizz

[West Coast]

Crucially, it's not just the world in Asia that has changed. Many posters use the phrase "the West" when "the West" is no longer the unified force it was. The unstable, unpredictable, and perhaps unwitting, Trumpian USA has weakened (greatly weakened, I would argue) and fractured the unified "West" that kept threats (perceived and real) at bay for 70 odd years.

I suggest we are in a more unstable world now than at any time since October 1962.

grizz

As applied to China I don’t think there’s been a greater regional recognition of the threat they bring. A largely dead alliance (Quad powers) is being revitalized along with individual nations putting China on notice that they’re concerned with their direction.

[Asturias56]

"Perhaps when Singapore gets the bomb there will be a recognition that the world in Asia has changed"

sure as hell will alter shopping in Orchard Road when they test their first one at home

[West Coast]

More F-16s for Taiwan.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/taiwan-finalises-62-billion-purchase-of-f-16-jets-lockheed-13023336

[ORAC]

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/why-doesnt-china-deploy-fighter-jets-to-the-spratly-islands/

Why Doesn’t China Deploy Fighter Jets to the Spratly Islands?

[Lyneham Lad]

More on S Korea's carrier plan - article in The Times today.

Seoul steps up arms race with first aircraft carrier (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3341691a-dfe1-11ea-980d-ea124c352a60?shareToken=71ec8fc753b98c748e521b7c44944626)

From the article:-
(https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3341691a-dfe1-11ea-980d-ea124c352a60?shareToken=71ec8fc753b98c748e521b7c44944626)Sou th Korea is planning to join an exclusive club of about a dozen countries that possess aircraft carriers.

The proposed warship, designed to carry up to 20 of America’s jump-jet F-35B (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/first-f-35-jets-ready-to-battle-for-britain-2pnwb6lqr)Lightning II joint strike fighters, will project South Korea into a higher league of maritime powers, and add another carrier to a region already engaged in a naval arms race.

Construction of the 652ft ship will begin next year and it is due to be launched in the late 2020s. The decision follows the breakdown of what initially looked like encouraging diplomatic progress between North Korea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/flooding-swamps-cooling-pumps-at-north-korea-nuclear-research-centre-8sfnxxdpl) and the US on Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons programme.

After two summits between President Trump and Kim Jong-un (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kim-jong-un-declares-propaganda-war-on-south-korea-nnk0pl7kl), the North Korean leader, in Singapore in 2018 and Hanoi in 2019, hopes of a breakthrough in denuclearising the Korean peninsula were dashed. After an 18-month self-imposed freeze while the talks were going on, Pyongyang resumed short-range ballistic missile tests in May last year.

The new vessel will be about a third the size of the US Navy’s 11 nuclear-powered supercarriers, but unlike several nations that have carriers with flight decks only capable of launching helicopters, the South Korean warship will be a dedicated fixed-wing aircraft platform. It has been called LPX-II class and will be a 40,000-ton ship.

[Asturias56]

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/why-doesnt-china-deploy-fighter-jets-to-the-spratly-islands/

Why Doesn’t China Deploy Fighter Jets to the Spratly Islands?

Now THAT is an interesting article...................:ok:

[etudiant]

https://thediplomat.com/2020/08/why-doesnt-china-deploy-fighter-jets-to-the-spratly-islands/

Why Doesn’t China Deploy Fighter Jets to the Spratly Islands?

That seems of a piece with an earlier article suggesting that these bases are eroding fast, wishful thinking imho.
While I appreciate the Chinese penchant for cutting corners, I'm also aware that they built these bases at considerable expense and that the construction resources are still in the area and remain active.
So I'd think if there were real structural problems, they would be getting addressed right now. After all, what is the point of provoking the surrounding states unless one is set on a policy?

[FakePilot]

Now THAT is an interesting article...................:ok:
Hmmmm. Wonder who owns the newspaper. There may be a bit of truth, but the Chinese books Ive read repetitively state that their military is for internal and regional use to bring harmony. I think they intentionally downplay their ambitions.

I'm concerned that the US may have the military might but not the will. I'm sure the talking heads will try to look smart and say something about a land war in Asia.

[Imagegear]

I cannot imagine how one would go about stabilizing what is little more than a sandbank. Rising sea levels and tropical storms will very quickly degrade any large, heavy, structures to a point where they are unusable.

Here in France (and Monaco), extensive work is being done to build on what was open sea. It is not being done by making sand Islands. Solid rock boulders are being used on which to anchor very heavy concrete caissons until the new land is high enough to think about building. Not knowing the criteria for allowing for settling of the base and caissons I expect it is more than adequate. Nice airport and Monaco's high-rise condo's seem to be quite stable on what has been created.. I doubt the Chinese would come close to having anything with similar characteristics.

This just might be "window-dressing" by the Chinese to reinforce their claim to the 9-dash line and was never expected to be used operationally.

IG

[Fareastdriver]

All the land reclamation I have seen in China has had a minimum of seven years to stabilise it before construction. Then, reclaimed or virgin land, piles are driven down twenty metres to support a thirty floor apartment block.

Standing at one end of the old Belize runway, near a swampy river, one could see the bow wave along the tarmac when a VC 10 or suchlike landed.

[Asturias56]

Just don't buy a property offshore Dubai ..............................

[NutLoose]

Meanwhile just around the corner

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/08/18/china-appears-to-increase-foothold-in-strategic-port-in-pakistan/

[Lonewolf_50]

Meanwhile just around the corner

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/08/18/china-appears-to-increase-foothold-in-strategic-port-in-pakistan/
They've been at this for over a decade, haven't they? I recall reading a nice piece by Robert Kaplan this port in his book Monsoon.

[Buster Hyman]

China gives them the money to repay the Saudi's....so...welcome to Imran Khans new Chinastan.

[etudiant]

China gives them the money to repay the Saudi's....so...welcome to Imran Khans new Chinastan.

Thought Pakistani expatriates were the worker bees in Saudi and that their remissions keep Pakistan afloat. Had not been aware that Saudi has made big loans as well. Any source?

[Buster Hyman]

Thought Pakistani expatriates were the worker bees in Saudi and that their remissions keep Pakistan afloat. Had not been aware that Saudi has made big loans as well. Any source?
https://www.wionews.com/south-asia/pakistan-forced-to-pay-back-saudi-usd-1-billion-319037

[dead_pan]

Looks like a nice little earner for the Pakistanis (as long as they don't default on any loans), also makes strategic and commercial sense for the Chinese. Another cog in OBOR...

[Lordflasheart]

...

From the Daily Mail etc - first photo of PLAN submarine entering (or leaving) leaving Yulin underground shelter. Note coastal roadway pontoon removed and positioned alongside, just north of entrance.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8645191/Satellite-images-capture-single-Chinese-nuclear-submarine-entering-Bond-lair-cave-complex.html

There are other links from the article to significant related info.

LFH
...

[SLXOwft]

The PLAN has been publicising its use of civilian vessels for naval helicopter operations.

The Chinese navy apparently has been watching the U.S. Navy experiment with its new sea-base ships. Chinese media recently highlighted (https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1296484782021521408) a military training exercise involving army Z-8 transport helicopters and Z-19 scouts flying from the deck of Zhen Hua 28, a civilian semi-submersible heavy load carrier.

For decades Beijing’s fleet has rented or borrowed commercial ships as an expedient method of expanding its modest-but-growing amphibious fleet. In wartime, the Chinese navy quickly could take up from trade scores or even hundreds of useful vessels, much like the Royal Navy famously did during the 1982 Falklands War.

Which is to say, in employing Zhen Hua 28, the Chinese navy isn’t necessarily copying the Americans. But it is noteworthy that both fleets have, at around the same time, discovered the utility of submersible load-carriers.

Source: forbes.com

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2020/08/22/surprise-the-chinese-navy-just-transformed-this-cargo-ship-into-an-istant-helicopter-carrier/

[Lyneham Lad]

Article in the Times:-
Beijing up in arms over US spyplane sorties (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0d3bcbd0-e7a6-11ea-9b25-18353d361fa2?shareToken=9b1f43c51964e9a7bcf0d685b339cbe0)

Intro:-
Beijing has accused the United States of “naked provocation” by sending a high-altitude surveillance plane to spy on exercises involving one of China’s aircraft carriers.

China has officially complained about the “trespass” of the U-2 spy plane during naval exercises this week. Reports from Hong Kong said that the U-2 flew from a US base in South Korea over the Bohai Gulf and monitored firing exercises conducted on Tuesday by vessels including China’s flagship aircraft carrier, Shandong.

According to a Chinese government think tank, a different reconnaissance aircraft, the RC-135S, also flew across the South China Sea today.

“This was a naked act of provocation,” Wu Qian, a spokesman for China’s defence ministry, said. “It seriously interfered in normal exercise activities. It seriously violated the code of safe behaviour for air and sea between China and the US and international norms. It could easily have led to misjudgment, or could even cause accidents in the sea and air.

[Fareastdriver]

Bei; North, Hai; Sea. The Chinese regard it as sovereign territory and there is a substantial military presence there. It is the closest a seaborne invasion would be to Beijing; they haven't forgotten the British did it, and it is also adjacent to North and South Korea.

Miserable place in winter.

[Lyneham Lad]

Latest article in The Times.
China tests DF-21D ‘carrier killer’ missiles in South China Sea (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/650d9cbe-e84e-11ea-9b25-18353d361fa2?shareToken=02070736c264c14c717b11e98bbf95b2)

China is believed to have fired a nuclear-capable “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missile into the South China Sea the day after the United States sent a surveillance aircraft to spy on Chinese military exercises.

The show of strength came as Mark Esper, the US defence secretary, denounced Beijing for its “aggression” and vowed that his government would not give “an inch of ground” in its rejection of Chinese sovereignty over the strategic sea.

“Particularly in the South China Sea area, China seems to be flexing its muscles the most and conducting some of its worst behaviour,” Mr Esper said after a speech in Hawaii.

“The United States has a responsibility to lead . . . We’re not going to cede this region, an inch of ground if you will, to another country, any other country that thinks their form of government better than what many of us share.”

Diplomatic tension between the China and the US has been increasing for months, as President Trump (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/donald-trump) has made criticism of Beijing a part of his re-election campaign.

Yesterday China accused the United States of “naked provocation” and “trespass” in sending a high-altitude U2 surveillance aircraft to spy on naval live firing exercises involving the Chinese aircraft carrier [i]Shandong.

As China was making its complaint, according to the South China Morning Post, it was also test-firing advanced ballistic missiles in what appears to be a pointed response.

The weapons reportedly included the DF-21D, a “carrier killer” anti-ship ballistic missile, which could threaten the US’s fleet.

In July, in a powerful show of strength, two US carriers, USS Nimitz and USS Ronald Reagan, conducted exercises in the South China Sea at the same time as Shandong.


The other missile tested, the DF-26B, can carry nuclear or conventional warheads and has a range of 4000km, making it capable of striking US forces on the Pacific garrison island of Guam. Both weapons were fired into an area of sea between China’s Hainan province and the Paracel Islands, which are claimed by several southeast Asian countries, as well as China.

In the past six years Beijing has strengthened its claims by concreting over reefs to build military airports equipped with radar, missiles and aircraft. On Wednesday, the US government banned 24 Chinese companies from buying American products, blaming them for helping to construct the new artificial islands.

In 2016, an international tribunal in the Hague rejected Beijing’s claim to sovereignty over virtually the whole South China Sea and ruled that it had broken international law by building the military bases.

Last month Mike Pompeo, the US secretary of state, gave explicit support to this ruling (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pompeos-tough-words-set-stage-for-show-of-force-against-china-8c5rshrrl), adding to the growing atmosphere of confrontation between Washington and Beijing (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/superpowers-face-off-over-south-china-sea-as-taiwan-drills-for-war-mxrmmcwrq). His message was reinforced today by Mr Esper.

“The People’s Liberation Army continues to pursue an aggressive modernisation plan to achieve a world-class military by the middle of the century,” he said. “This will undoubtedly involve the PLA’s provocative behaviour in the South and East China Seas, and anywhere else the Chinese government has deemed critical to its interests.”

Taiwan’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, warned of the rising danger of war in the region. “The risk of conflict requires careful management by all the parties concerned,” she said. “We expect and hope that Beijing will continue to exercise restraint consistent with their obligations as a major regional power.”

[Fareastdriver]

They have certainly beefed up their air force since I used to knock about with the PLAAF at Shanghaiguan in 1998. Then the main equipment then was the Shenyang J6 where the pilots were paid about the same as I paid my housekeeper and flew about 40 hrs/year.

Came the turn of the century and conscription was phased down to a small degree with a massive enhancement of T&Cs for regular personnel. The equipment changed as the J6s were piled up in a quiet corner of the airfield and a line of J7s replaced them. With them came an enhancement of accommodation and living conditions.

Shanghaiguan has now lost its ground attack role and it now a PLA naval aviation unit with Y8 maritime patrol aircraft. It has been expanded beyond belief since I was there and looks as if it has a training college with a clutch of J7s to play with.

Google Earth will show a line of Y8s and two of them have a radar assembly on top.

There are now some good reasons why they said that they were proud to serve their country.

[etudiant]

What is the accepted procedure for setting an ADIZ? Large scale US and Russian naval and air exercises are common, they often involve a lot of airspace beyond national territorial limits, how is that handled? If there is lots of precedent for such requirements made by other forces during exercises, it will be hard for the US to object to China's doing the same.

Obviously the Chinese protests are because they hope to gradually get de facto acceptance of their territorial claims by setting up ID zones, anticipating that traffic has to conform to Chinese regulations. This seems like a low risk approach to building sovereignty.

[Imagegear]

It's only low risk if nobody objects. When someone does object we are at the point where it is no longer a low risk infiltration but a high risk offensive action.

IG

[ORAC]

What is the accepted procedure for setting an ADIZ? Large scale US and Russian naval and air exercises are common, they often involve a lot of airspace beyond national territorial limits, how is that handled? If there is lots of precedent for such requirements made by other forces during exercises, it will be hard for the US to object to China's doing the same.

Obviously the Chinese protests are because they hope to gradually get de facto acceptance of their territorial claims by setting up ID zones, anticipating that traffic has to conform to Chinese regulations. This seems like a low risk approach to building sovereignty.
The norm for exercises is to issue a NOTAM. Especial care is taken where these state they are live fire exercises. They could, of course, engage any aircraft which penetrate the NOTAM area, but that has far higher risks of its own.

ADIZ have no international legal basis. China has established one which, whilst being a matter of concern for airlines, is being ignored by the US forces and others. The US, UK and others have a tradition of deliberately challenging attempts by nations to use such means to limit transit of international waters and airspace - which is covered by international law.

https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/528566-east-china-sea-adiz.html?highlight=China+adiz

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_navigation

[Less Hair]

Double the U-2 flights.

[ORAC]

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/govt-to-clear-2-billion-deal-for-israeli-made-awacs-amid-stand-off-with-china/story-1JtIBkloVbKLRIO7rPG16K.html

Indian Govt to clear $2 billion deal for Israeli-made AWACS amid stand-off with China

[etudiant]

The norm for exercises is to issue a NOTAM. Especial care is taken where these state they are live fire exercises. They could, of course, engage any aircraft which penetrate the NOTAM area, but that has far higher risks of its own.

ADIZ have no international legal basis. China has established one which, whilst being a matter of concern for airlines, is being ignored by the US forces and others. The US, UK and others have a tradition of deliberately challenging attempts by nations to use such means to limit transit of international waters and airspace - which is covered by international law.

https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/528566-east-china-sea-adiz.html?highlight=China+adiz

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_navigation

Thank you, that is very helpful. Do we know whether China issued a NOTAM for the exercise area as well as setting up the ADIZ?

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/31/india-accuses-china-of-provocative-military-movements-near-border

India accuses China of 'provocative military movements' near border

India has said its soldiers thwarted China’s “provocative” military movements near a disputed border in Ladakh region amid a months-long standoff (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/25/satellite-images-show-chinese-construction-near-site-of-india-border-clash).

A statement by India’s defence ministry said China’s Peoples Liberation Army “carried out provocative military movements to change the status quo” and “violated the previous consensus arrived at during military and diplomatic engagements” to settle the standoff in the cold-desert region.

It said Indian troops preempted the Chinese military activity on the southern bank of Pangong Lake.

The statement said Indian troops “undertook measures to strengthen our positions and thwart Chinese intentions to unilaterally change facts on ground.”

China (https://www.theguardian.com/world/china) did not immediately comment......

[Asturias56]

Another god awful spot - but both sides seem to have camps/roads near the LOAC here

[SLXOwft]

Article in Forbes about satellite image of China's E-2 alike. One assumes obvious questions being asked does it work, is it mechanical or AESA, will it fly off a skijump or be land based until PLAN carrier no3. Can they get it fully operational before Crowsnest?:ugh:

Forbes: First Image of KJ-600 (https://www.forbes.com/sites/hisutton/2020/08/29/first-image-of-chinas-new-carrier-based-aew-plane/)


https://cimg2.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/959x539/960x0_0ec3ce95d4efbb72f57a715576f9dd749d74738b.jpg
H I Sutton, Imagery from Planet Labs Inc

Also in Popular Mechanics
China's New Plane Sure Looks Like an American Hawkeye Knockoff (https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a33851414/china-kj-600-plane-us-e2c-hawkeye-knockoff/)

[West Coast]

https://www.ft.com/content/24e87b4b-b146-4ea8-a9b2-9f801af21ea6

Security assurances given Taiwan.

[Asturias56]

Firewalled I'm afraid.....................

[etudiant]

https://www.ft.com/content/24e87b4b-b146-4ea8-a9b2-9f801af21ea6

Security assurances given Taiwan.
Does anyone believe such 'assurances'? How meaningful is a private 'assurance' when it has not been endorsed formally by the US Congress?

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/tensions-soar-after-shots-fired-across-himalayan-border-wznmnbkbg

Tensions soar after shots fired across Himalayan border

Shots have been fired across the Himalayan border that separates India and China, ratcheting up tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours.

Each side accused the other of opening fire today across the border known as Line of Actual Control (LAC). Unease between the two countries has been rising for months around the disputed region, but if an exchange of fire is confirmed it would be the first time ammunition has been used for 45 years. Beijing accused Delhi of “provocation” by firing at its patrolling soldiers and urged India to refrain from “dangerous” actions.

On Monday night, troops of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) attempted to close in on a forward Indian position at the LAC, the de facto border, the Indian army said in a statement. “And when dissuaded by [Indian troops], PLA troops fired a few rounds in the air in an attempt to intimidate [our] troops,” the army said in a statement today, adding that the Indian side acted with restraint. “At no stage has the Indian army transgressed across the LAC or resorted to use of any aggressive means, including firing,” it said.

China said the Indians had breached the border. “The Indian troops brazenly made [a] gunshot threat to the patrolling Chinese border guards who came forward for negotiations, and the Chinese border guards were forced to take countermeasures to stabilise the situation,” said Zhang Shuili, a representative of the PLA’s western theatre command. China’s foreign ministry said Indian troops had illegally crossed the LAC and were the first to fire shots. “This is a serious military provocation,” Zhao Lijian, a spokesman, told a daily news conference in Beijing today.

India has accused the Chinese of trying to gain territory around the huge glacial Pangong Lake through what it describes as “aggressive manoeuvres”. In retaliation, Indian soldiers have managed to take control of some strategic heights on the southern bank of the lake, according to Indian reports, apparently incensing the Chinese.....

A series of diplomatic and military talks have failed to defuse the crisis. A meeting between the two countries’ defence ministers in Moscow last Friday also yielded no progress. Both countries have repeatedly said they want a peaceful resolution, but military experts say the situation is deteriorating fast.

The war of words has seen no let-up. China says it holds India responsible for the dispute and that it is not far from being “annihilated”, according to an editorial in the party-run Global Times newspaper.

It went on to warn of “bloody rain and winds” on the border if India did not abide by a 1996 agreement not to use live fire in the region. “We must harshly warn the Indian side that you’ve overstepped. Your frontline troops have overstepped. Your nationalistic public opinion has overstepped. Your foreign policy on China has overstepped,” said the editorial.....

https://ca.investing.com/news/world-news/tibetan-soldiers-death-near-tense-indiachina-border-sheds-light-on-covert-unit-2243631

Tibetan soldier's death near tense India-China border sheds light on covert unit

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelpeck/2020/09/02/is-china-deploying-new-anti-aircraft-missiles-on-indias-border/#65072bb621f3

Is China Deploying New Anti-Aircraft Missiles On India’s Border?



Using open-source satellite imagery, observers claim to have spotted two new surface-to-air missile (SAM) sites in the Chumbi valley of Tibet, on the border with the northeastern Indian state of Sikkim and the independent kingdom of Bhutan. A Chinese-held wedge that juts deep into Indian territory, the Chumbi valley is located in an area that was the site of border clashes (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52606774) between Indian and Chinese troops in 2017 and 2020.

The new missile sites are just 50 kilometers (31 miles) from where the border skirmishes occurred, according to photos posted on Twitter. The satellite photos show what appear to be two square-shaped installations surrounded by walls: each installation contains a circular position containing a single long cylinder that resembles a missile.

photos posted on Twitter

“As a part of the ongoing upgrades & expansion of air defense assets along its border with India, China has been developing two new air defense positions near its suspected early warning radar sites opposite Sikkim,” according to the caption on the Twitter satellite imagery graphic. “Noted roughly 50 kms from Naku La and Doka La passes, both surface to air missiles sites would close the existing air defense gap around the earlier clash zones. India has been noted running regular intelligence surveillance & reconnaissance missions in this sector during these standoffs fielding a variety of assets including the Boeing P-8 [patrol aircraft].

[fitliker]

Not the best way to make friends . Might actually encourage others to start building defences against the expanding resurgence of old empires and newer colonial ambitions in those regions.

[etudiant]

Not the best way to make friends . Might actually encourage others to start building defences against the expanding resurgence of old empires and newer colonial ambitions in those regions.

The Xi policy appears to be designed to make it painfully costly to challenge Chinas dominance within its zone of influence. Those neighboring countries need to tread softly to avoid incurring Beijing's displeasure.
Some of them, such as Australia, are still in denial about their status, but short of a serious Australian nuclear program, no one else will be in doubt. India however is a different matter, so both parties are still careful.
Note that Xi can afford to be unpleasant, a multi hundred billion dollar annual trade surplus gives policy lots of leeway.

[Lookleft]

Some of them, such as Australia, are still in denial about their status,

Australia is very aware of its status in regards to China. The CCP are tightening the screws to get us to submit and grovel back to them but under the present government that won't happen. It might happen under a Labor government as they are addicted to CCP money and influence.

[rjtjrt]

.........
.Some of them, such as Australia, are still in denial about their status, but short of a serious Australian nuclear program...,

Are suggesting China will invade Australia, or Nuke us, if we are too determined not to be subservient?

[Imagegear]

Are suggesting China will invade Australia, or Nuke us, if we are too determined not to be subservient?

Take a look around - you have already been "invaded" they are just not wearing uniforms or driving tanks.

The creeping yellow peril of COVID19 is the tip of the spear that degrades the enemy without a shot being fired.

IG

[etudiant]

Are suggesting China will invade Australia, or Nuke us, if we are too determined not to be subservient?

Why bother? China gets its way around the South China Sea and still has full access to Australian resources. Getting on China's sh*t list hurts Australia rather than China.

China is obviously super prickly about how it is reported and thanks to our expansive definition of forbidden thoughts now criminalized as 'hate speech', they have at least a solid legal angle in attempting to block reports they consider objectionable. I doubt many publishers will want to spend the money needed to litigate the issue, so once the furor dies down, expect less China critical reporting.

[fitliker]

The Japanese response is interesting. They have quietly changed their peaceful and restrictive constitution . Had great success with their recent launch of a Mars Rocket . Increased their military budgets . All done without sounding like a scared yappy lap dog .
They are quietly polishing their blades .
The Japanese have been quietly getting ready .

[Asturias56]

"They have quietly changed their peaceful and restrictive constitution "

I don't think they have - what they're done is to change definitions (eg "helicopter equipped destroyers") and skirt around the edges but a lot of Japanese are against remilitarisation

[Asturias56]

"The creeping yellow peril of COVID19 is the tip of the spear that degrades the enemy without a shot being fired."

Is that why they tried it on themselves first Image??

[Imagegear]

In a word - Yes, best get the mix right before going global

IG

[Gnadenburg]

The Japanese response is interesting. They have quietly changed their peaceful and restrictive constitution . Had great success with their recent launch of a Mars Rocket . Increased their military budgets . All done without sounding like a scared yappy lap dog .
They are quietly polishing their blades .
The Japanese have been quietly getting ready .

For a country historically adept with surprise attacks, they should consider being on the receiving end themselves. Their airbases I fly into are cluttered and unhardened. The PLA's extensive conventional missile arsenal isn't exclusively for Taiwan.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/i30mki/status/1304464882507620355?s=21

[dead_pan]

"The creeping yellow peril of COVID19 is the tip of the spear that degrades the enemy without a shot being fired."

Is that why they tried it on themselves first Image??

The ultimate deniability...

[Prawn2king4]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1201310.shtml

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/20/villagers-help-indian-troops-face-chinese-forces-in-himalayas

Villagers help Indian troops face Chinese forces in Himalayas

[etudiant]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/20/villagers-help-indian-troops-face-chinese-forces-in-himalayas

Villagers help Indian troops face Chinese forces in Himalayas
What is doubtful is whether a few hundred villagers can lug enough supplies on foot to maintain a division size force.
I'd expect a pullback, before they have to ask the Chinese for help.

[Lyneham Lad]

Increasing risk of (inadvertent) conflict? Article in The Times today.

We will retaliate against attack, Taiwan warns China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/90e83d64-fc2e-11ea-8388-5bae8b4ec9a9?shareToken=50a3cbf9ee216eae191be83e903a777a)

Taiwan has warned China that it will respond in kind if fired upon after Chinese fighter jets escalated operations around the island, flying repeatedly across the midpoint of the strait that separates it from the mainland.

Beijing regards Taiwan as a renegade province and has vowed to reunify it by force if necessary.

Tensions between the two have risen rapidly, particularly after David Hale (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-enrages-china-with-weapons-sales-and-state-department-visit-to-taiwan-78xlt2w0l), the US under-secretary of state, paid an official visit to Taipei last week as Washington pushed $7 billion of arms sales including cruise missiles (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-launches-combat-drills-as-us-official-visits-taiwan-cd8lnwmcq), mines and drones to the island. After the forays by Chinese jets, Taiwan’s defence ministry said that it had clearly defined procedures to deal with the “high frequency of harassment and threats from the enemy’s warships and aircraft” and added that although its soldiers would not fire the first shot they were authorised to fire back if Chinese forces did so.

The defence ministry also sought to assure the public that it had the armaments to defend the island. “The military regularly replenishes its precision missiles in accordance to military restructuring plans,” it said. “The military’s stockpile of precision missiles is sufficient for defensive needs at the present stage.”

Taiwan said that Chinese aircraft, including twelve J-16 fighters, two J-10 fighters, two J-11 fighters and two H-6 bombers, had crossed the midline of the strait, unofficially regarded as a boundary, and entered Taiwan’s southwest air defence identification zone on Saturday. The island’s forces scrambled fighters and deployed an air defence missile system to monitor the activities, the ministry said.

In a tweet it added that it “strongly condemns and urges [China] to practise self-restraint and don’t be a troublemaker in the #indopacific region”.

Tsai Ing-wen, Taiwan’s president, praised the “heroic performance” of the island’s air force pilots for intercepting the Chinese fighter jets. “I have a lot of confidence in you. As soldiers of the Republic of China, how could we let enemies strut around in our own airspace?” she said, using Taiwan’s formal name.

“I’m aware that facing the provocative behaviour of the communist planes that have encircled the island and damaged regional peace in recent days, your duty at the front line of the airspace in Penghu must be even heavier.”

Yesterday, China’s foreign ministry said that the midline of the Taiwan Strait did not exist, provoking condemnation from Joseph Wu, Taiwan’s foreign minister. He said the line was an important “symbol” for avoiding military clashes.

“We demand the international community strongly condemns China’s words and actions and demand the Chinese government stops everything that it has been doing,” he added.

The Chinese air force released a propaganda video yesterday featuring its H-6 bomber launching an attack on an island base that strongly resembled US facilities in Diego Garcia and Guam, although it appeared to have borrowed clips from three Hollywood films, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, The Rock and The Hurt Locker.

[dead_pan]

The Chinese air force released a propaganda video yesterday featuring its H-6 bomber launching an attack on an island base that strongly resembled US facilities in Diego Garcia and Guam, although it appeared to have borrowed clips from three Hollywood films, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen, The Rock and The Hurt Locker.

I've got to see this! Sounds fantastic.

Edited to add: Found it on the Telegraph website. Its a bit lame TBH.

[ORAC]

https://youtu.be/fj1wCjIitIU

[NutLoose]

Meanwhile in a story similar to the Iranian carrier target, the USA has built itself a North Korean Sub to practice sinking.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/26380/this-u-s-navy-yellow-submarine-was-a-target-shaped-like-a-north-korean-midget-sub


What was really worrying was the US drew up plans to drop 80 nukes on North Korea..

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36519/yes-the-united-states-did-draw-up-a-plan-to-drop-80-nuclear-weapons-on-north-korea

[havoc]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-prepares-to-fly-fighter-jets-over-taiwan/ar-BB19tfj0?ocid=msedgdhp

China seems set to overfly Taiwan with fighter jets. Such an operation would be designed to warn the U.S. against increasing its support for Taiwan. And second, to test whether President Tsai Ing-wen is willing to fire on Chinese aircraft.

The latest warning of an impending overflight came on Thursday in the Global Times newspaper. The primary mouthpiece of Beijing's Communist Party messaging to the west, the paper warned (https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1202014.shtml) that the "Deployment of US forces to Taiwan means war." This refers to recent U.S. Military journal articles hypothesizing how best the Pentagon could help Taiwan defeat a Chinese invasion in any conflict. Apparently sensing that the Trump administration may soon send a more senior diplomat to visit the island, the editorial added that "It is not known how the US and Taiwan will make further provocations, but the response of the mainland is certain. If the U.S. and Taiwan raise the level of officials for engagement, the mainland will firmly respond by sending PLA fighter jets over the island of Taiwan to claim sovereignty."The editorial also pointed out that the PLA Air Force has already moved towards intruding over Taiwan's airspace. "PLA fighter jets recently crossed the so-called middle line of the Taiwan Straits on a large scale," it noted, "clearly drawing the red line that the US and Taiwan must not further collude. The Global Times has understood that PLA fighter jets were as closest as only seconds away from the coast of Taiwan. They were only one step away from flying over the island of Taiwan."

These threats should not be taken lightly.

China views Taiwan as a breakaway province which must, for reasons of Communist Party credibility and national honor, be brought back to the motherland. If Beijing believes that Taiwan is splitting too far from its grasp, it will use force (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/support-taiwan-with-open-eyes) in an effort to compel the island nation's subjugation. But if China does indeed overfly Taiwan with fighter jets, the Taiwanese government will face a moment of great consequence. To allow those fighters to pass over its territory unchallenged would be a humiliating and dangerous show of timidity. Of course, to shoot down any fighters would risk Beijing's immediate escalation to conflict. Here we see an ultimate Catch-22.

Still, Xi Jinping also faces great risks. While his recapture of Taiwan would consolidate his legacy desire to become the next Mao Zedong master of Chinese destiny, defeat would risk (https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/xi-jinpings-new-letter-underlines-his-authoritarian-absolutism) the Communist Party's mainland survival. It is in America's interest to reinforce Xi's perception of the latter risk, while mitigating his desire to carry forward an invasion.

Put simply, for China, Taiwan, and the U.S., tensions and the reciprocal stakes are growing very quickly.

[Less Hair]

Some invasion might end east west trade as we know it.

[Arcanum]

For about a month. Maybe.

More than 50% of the world’s silicon chip supply comes from TSMC fabs in Taiwan. Assuming those fabs survive an invasion, China would have a stranglehold over the world chip market and the most advanced fabs in the world. It would take 2-3 years to replace a meaningful proportion of that lost fab capacity in the West.

How long do you think the western population is going to do without shiny new phones, TV’s, luxury cars, computers...? Not 2-3 years.

[Less Hair]

China needs trade income as well. And China needs global supply lines to feed it's economy.

[etudiant]

For about a month. Maybe.

More than 50% of the world’s silicon chip supply comes from TSMC fabs in Taiwan. Assuming those fabs survive an invasion, China would have a stranglehold over the world chip market and the most advanced fabs in the world. It would take 2-3 years to replace a meaningful proportion of that lost fab capacity in the West.

How long do you think the western population is going to do without shiny new phones, TV’s, luxury cars, computers...? Not 2-3 years.

Global semiconductor capacity is about a quarter from Taiwan, although TSMC does have at least half the global production of the very latest chip technology. Korea has the other quarter of the capacity, the US about an eighth.
Is China going to take out Korea as well in your scenario?
Separately, semiconductor production facilities do not tolerate disruptions very well, just a simple power failure can knock out a couple of months of production. Physical damage translates to several times that.
So a Chinese invasion would kill those operations for quite a while.

[West Coast]

Extrapolating out a couple of chess piece moves....

I’m no expert (something seldom said in the internet age) but those who profess to be say China isn’t yet prepared for a war that has them decisively winning due to a lack of sea lift. The Chinese can’t win on AirPower alone, they need boots on the island but don’t have the capability needed in contested waters.

So China sends a few planes over Taiwan, Taipei responds by sending a few planes over the mainland, shooting starts and the quick decisive battle needed to keep the US at bay melts away. The Chinese don’t like to lose face, short of a quick battle, there’s a good chance they would. Bring the USN in, sink one of their carriers and it’s a war no one wants, even if it’s conventional only.

[West Coast]

For about a month. Maybe.

More than 50% of the world’s silicon chip supply comes from TSMC fabs in Taiwan. Assuming those fabs survive an invasion, China would have a stranglehold over the world chip market and the most advanced fabs in the world. It would take 2-3 years to replace a meaningful proportion of that lost fab capacity in the West.

How long do you think the western population is going to do without shiny new phones, TV’s, luxury cars, computers...? Not 2-3 years.

How long do you think the Chinese population (And military) is going to do without oil? China is the worlds largest oil importer. They have their Achilles heal that can be exploited.

Sound like 1935-40?

[finestkind]

How long do you think the Chinese population (And military) is going to do without oil? China is the worlds largest oil importer. They have their Achilles heal that can be exploited.

Sound like 1935-40?
It may have already been stated but China does not care. It does not care if it’s economics’ goes backwards and 100 mill plus die of starvation. It does not care that for the next 12 months or 12 years it goes backwards. They do not think about tomorrow as western worlds do, worry about staying in power and pacifying it citizens. They think about 10 or 50 or 100 years down track. It is just mammoth and happy to move at a glacial pace if needed.

[Barksdale Boy]

finestkind

At least one worries about staying in power and I think we all know who.

[West Coast]

It may have already been stated but China does not care. It does not care if it’s economics’ goes backwards and 100 mill plus die of starvation. It does not care that for the next 12 months or 12 years it goes backwards. They do not think about tomorrow as western worlds do, worry about staying in power and pacifying it citizens. They think about 10 or 50 or 100 years down track. It is just mammoth and happy to move at a glacial pace if needed.

Oh, I think you’re wrong. If the level of lifestyle the Chinese have become accustomed to vanishes, there isn’t an army large enough to contain the fury. A devastated China loses its place as a leading economy, a weakened China loses its island chains earned by strong arm.

Way too many negatives for China.

[JustinHeywood]

It may have already been stated but China does not care. It does not care if it’s economics’ goes backwards and 100 mill plus die of starvation. It does not care that for the next 12 months or 12 years it goes backwards. They do not think about tomorrow as western worlds do, worry about staying in power and pacifying it citizens. They think about 10 or 50 or 100 years down track. It is just mammoth and happy to move at a glacial pace if needed.

You think if 100 million died of starvation they wouldn’t care? Things have moved on a bit from the time of Mao and the Gang of Four. I doubt the regime would survive mass starvation these days.

While I think it’s true that the Chinese have a longer-term approach (relative to western democracies), I think we do tend to overate the whole ‘ancient Chinese wisdom’ thing.

[Imagegear]

I have read somewhere on these boards and after reviewing articles about current Chinese political thinking, the expectation is that the current form of government will not survive the next 3-4 years.

Too many influential people have subscribed to capitalist vested interests and they will not allow political posturing to damage their quality of life.

Not "whether but when" is my opinion.

IG

[dead_pan]

How long do you think the Chinese population (And military) is going to do without oil? China is the worlds largest oil importer. They have their Achilles heal that can be exploited.

Sound like 1935-40?

I'm sure Russia would be more than happy to oblige. There's no question whose side they would chose in a conflict.

[Less Hair]

Russia and China are epic rivals. Let's be clear about this.

[Fareastdriver]

Taiwan has only been a part of China for 216 of the 3,000 years of Chinese history. The Ming Chinese didn't annex it until after the Dutch had opened up the Island. They then lost it to the Japanese in 1895.
Two atom bombs restored it to China only for it to be used as a refuge for the defeated Chinese Nationalists.
Nobody in Taiwan under seventy years has an historical link to mainland China so it Beijing takes over it is going to be a whole load of trouble.

[unmanned_droid]

I'm sure Russia would be more than happy to oblige. There's no question whose side they would chose in a conflict.

I think it would be pretty clear that they'd choose their own side - i.e. not aligning with either China or US organised forces.

It would potentially end up in an uncomfortable enemy of my enemy etc...thing between US organised forces and Russia, against China.

[West Coast]

I think it would be pretty clear that they'd choose their own side - i.e. not aligning with either China or US organised forces.

It would potentially end up in an uncomfortable enemy of my enemy etc...thing between US organised forces and Russia, against China.

The US imports it’s oil from a variety of nations for a variety of reasons, largely to avoid being held hostage to one country or consortium. Imagine the leverage the leverage Russia would have over China. I’m sure the lessons of oil embargoes haven’t been lost on China.

I don’t know if one nation alone could fill the void of an embargo against China.

[Buster Hyman]

I don’t know if one nation alone could fill the void of an embargo against China.
Assuming they can pay.

[fitliker]

The Dominos are falling .
Tibet , Hong Kong , Mongolia , South China Sea , Taiwan? Nepal ? Kashmir?

So what ? Not my Problem :)

[finestkind]

Oh, I think you’re wrong. If the level of lifestyle the Chinese have become accustomed to vanishes, there isn’t an army large enough to contain the fury. A devastated China loses its place as a leading economy, a weakened China loses its island chains earned by strong arm.

Way too many negatives for China.

Fair point but the regime is still in control. Look at Hong Kong. Although china has made hugh leaps in alleviating poverty for the majority of its citizens it is still a controlled population.

[unmanned_droid]

The US imports it’s oil from a variety of nations for a variety of reasons, largely to avoid being held hostage to one country or consortium. Imagine the leverage the leverage Russia would have over China. I’m sure the lessons of oil embargoes haven’t been lost on China.

I don’t know if one nation alone could fill the void of an embargo against China.

I don't think China is in the business of being subject to leverage. Estimates on wiki (for whatever that's worth...) are that Russia holds a little more than 3 times as much oil as China. Interestingly, Russia is said to have 21 years of production at 2018 rates, and China has 17 years. I suspect that this doesn't include the Arctic areas Russia are posturing over and I am surprised that China does not have a bigger stated reserve given their land mass. Perhaps that will change with time and technology. Obviously if we stop buying from China, their raw material usage goes down somewhat (I can see military related production increasing though)

By-the-by, I think as far as US oil imports are concerned, its actually largely to avoid using up their own natural resources any faster than they have to, and consequently running their potential enemies out faster. Quite right too, strategically speaking.

[fitliker]

You might get a surprise if you knew which country has the largest oil companies in 2020 . Same country that is the worlds largest producer of Gold .
They may just about to hand the world a century or two of Humiliation , and there is absolutely nothing I could do about it :)

[Fareastdriver]

I am surprised that China does not have a bigger stated reserve given their land mass.

Land resources in China tend to be gas; especially in Western China where buses and now taxis have been running on gas for decades. Oil mainly comes from offshore and it is quite a long way (90 n.m.) offshore. A decade ago when I was there pipelines did not exist; it was exported by tanker from FPSOs.

Not the best arrangement during a punch-up.

[Asturias56]

"estimates on wiki (for whatever that's worth...) are that Russia holds a little more than 3 times as much oil as China"

be careful when quoting reserves of oil or any other thing else in the ground - once it reaches a certain quantity they don't bother looking for several years. Especially when the price is low

Why would Saudi Arabia explore for more oil when they have 221 years of their annual consumption? I know for a fact that another Mid East country was drilling wells for gas in the early 00's and every time they found oil they just plugged it off as they had more than enough for decades. Both the the Russians and the Chinese can find a lot more if they are willing to pay a bit extra

[unmanned_droid]

Land resources in China tend to be gas; especially in Western China where buses and now taxis have been running on gas for decades. Oil mainly comes from offshore and it is quite a long way (90 n.m.) offshore. A decade ago when I was there pipelines did not exist; it was exported by tanker from FPSOs.

Not the best arrangement during a punch-up.

Thanks for the info - if it hasn't got wings I usually have to go learn about it.

[unmanned_droid]

"estimates on wiki (for whatever that's worth...) are that Russia holds a little more than 3 times as much oil as China"

be careful when quoting reserves of oil or any other thing else in the ground - once it reaches a certain quantity they don't bother looking for several years. Especially when the price is low

Why would Saudi Arabia explore for more oil when they have 221 years of their annual consumption? I know for a fact that another Mid East country was drilling wells for gas in the early 00's and every time they found oil they just plugged it off as they had more than enough for decades. Both the the Russians and the Chinese can find a lot more if they are willing to pay a bit extra

Fair points. If it were me I'd prefer to know what I'd got in toto, but, I'm not a nation state.

[Imagegear]

the Chinese can find a lot more if they are willing to pay a bit extra

Not necessary, just make your "nine-dash line" into a "twelve-dash line" and hey ho, problem solved.

By the way does anyone still believe that COVID19/20/21/22... was not an act of war?

IG

[salad-dodger]

By the way does anyone still believe that COVID19/20/21/22... was not an act of war?


Yes. Along with most level headed, non-whacked out, conspiracy theorists.

[Imagegear]

Yes. Along with most level headed, non-whacked out, conspiracy theorists.

Was that tacit agreement, or are most conspiracy theorists "level-headed and non-whacked out."

Personally, my sunny side is usually up, and I don't see the point in chasing conspiracy theories, the facts tend to be supportive of my thinking without having to resort to la-la-land dreamscapes. :ok:

IG

[Lyneham Lad]

Article in The Times today.
China flexes military muscle with drills in all four coastal seas (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/2f0ffab0-0259-11eb-bce8-b17824147865?shareToken=5e2440ca15ac3fcd3b8568487316c505)

China’s military has conducted simultaneous drills in all four of its coastal seas while the US has begun target training in the Pacific with attack drones.

The four-seas drills are the latest in a series of military exercises ordered by Beijing that have escalated tensions (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/threat-of-war-over-taiwan-leaves-superpowers-on-edge-brxjz78jg) over Taiwan the democratic island which China has vowed to reunify with the mainland, but which has a defence pact with the United States.

In a sign of the growing tensions between the two superpowers in the region, the US Air Force Magazine published an image of the American soldiers featuring an MQ-9 Reaper drone flying over a map of China on the arm patches of their uniforms, which Beijing’s state media decried as “an extremely arrogant provocation”.

The recent military activity has unnerved many in Taiwan, with as many as 57 per cent of islanders questioned by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation saying they would like to see the purchase of more defence equipment (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-launches-combat-drills-as-us-official-visits-taiwan-cd8lnwmcq) from the US.

“It shows a sense of urgency over national security on the part of the Taiwanese people when they are faced with the frequent and strong military threats from the mainland,” Yinglong You, the foundation’s chairman, told United Daily News, a Taiwanese newspaper.

The survey found that more than 60 per cent of the respondents believed that the US could assist Taiwan if China tried to invade (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-jets-are-playing-a-risky-game-warns-taiwan-wlvbb7zdk) the island, compared with about 30 per cent who did not believe Washington would become involved. The survey also found that 86 per cent of respondents considered themselves to be a separate nation from China and more than 50 per cent expressed “extreme dislike” for the Communist Party of China.

For months, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has increased the military pressure (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-fighter-jets-step-up-air-incursions-into-taiwan-kggpm2scm) around Taiwan, with frequent live-fire drills and air patrols. Beijing recently said it would no longer recognise the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the body of water that separates the island from the mainland, as demarcating areas of control.

The four-seas exercise is the second of its kind since last month, when state media said they were a response to the escalating tensions around Taiwan. The exercise in the Yellow Sea will continue until tomorrow, while drills in the Bohai Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea took place yesterday.

The Global Times, a party-run newspaper, warned against any drone attack against China, which it said would amount to “a real war, a war crime that destroys peace”.
“To China, that is an invasion and an aggression of war,” read the editorial. “Our only option is to strike hard at the aggressors and teach them a lesson they will never forget. If Washington wants to try its luck, the Chinese military and Chinese people will surely rise to the challenge and fight to the end.”

Bluster or 'stay away' message?

[beardy]

My son has a theory about 'The October Surprise' that occurs just before a presidential election in the USA. He is of the opinion that this may be connected.

[Imagegear]

Interesting comment by General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith:

Next stop Singapore for the dreamers...:ok:

The British Army will have a 'more persistent presence' in Asia as the Government seeks to expand its military ties with regional allies in response to rising threats from China (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/china/index.html), the Chief of the General Staff has said.

General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith suggested a greater UK presence in the Indo Pacific region will reverse the process of regional withdrawal seen after 9/11, when Britain's focus shifted to the Middle East.

The head of the Army claimed 'there is a market for a more persistent presence from the British Army' in the Far East, adding that that 'now might be the time to redress that imbalance'.
Gen Carleton-Smith even hinted that RAF bases and the Royal Navy's new aircraft carriers could provide 'lily pads' from which the Army could operate with allies, such as Japan (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/japan/index.html) and South Korea (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/south-korea/index.html).

More persistent presence in the Far East (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8788635/British-Army-persistent-presence-Asia-suggests-chief.html)

IG

[etudiant]

Interesting comment by General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith:

Next stop Singapore for the dreamers...:ok:



More persistent presence in the Far East (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8788635/British-Army-persistent-presence-Asia-suggests-chief.html)

IG

What alternate reality is this man living in?
Does he see a plausible role for the PoW to be homeported in Singapore? Worked out poorly last time and the odds are a lot worse today.

[tartare]

So the plucky little British Army will go up against the PLA.
Good luck with that...

[dr dre]

So the plucky little British Army will go up against the PLA.
Good luck with that...

Current state of the UK.
Brexiteers think it's still 1942
British Generals think it's still 1842....

[Fareastdriver]

Back in the mid nineties discussing the handover of Hong Kong with a senior Chinese official.

"After that there will be Macao," I said.

"Yes," he replied, "and after that there will be Singapore."

[fitliker]

How would you feel if you lived in a country that had lost biological food security ? 80 percent of your pork production destroyed by Swine Flu , 60 percent of chickens killed by bird flu . The Biological Laboratory built and financed by foreigners gets a reputation for leaking and is blamed for latest Global Pandemic .Locusts plaguing your food supplies from other sources ,Strategic Frozen food stocks that were supposed to last two years down to the last three months of supply .The frozen food you are importing is polluted with the Covid virus , fishing stocks are being denied by hostile neighbours . Might be grounds for some home grown conspiracy theories ? Add earthquakes , floods and storms of unusually intensity . You might start to believe in conspiracy theories or divine intervention or even that the Gods are angry . You might even start to think you are under attack .

You might even start to believe throwing a few virgins into the nearest Volcano might improve the situation. Would it matter if the Virgins are male or female or identify as female or male to the modern Gods ? Or you might think the rest of the world is against you and welcome the first friendly gesture .

Aristotle said “War is easy , Peace is Hard “ Keeping the peace in that region is going to be very hard .

[dr dre]

Keeping the peace in that region is going to be very hard .

And who’s role will it be to “keep the peace” in that region?

[JustinHeywood]

... Or you [China] might think the rest of the world is against you and welcome the first friendly gesture

.

And what would be a ‘friendly gesture’ to China? Recognise China as the sole sovereign of the South China Sea? Turn a blind eye to their behaviour towards Hong Kong and Taiwan? Be unconcerned about their ‘Belt and Road’ activities in poor but resource-rich countries?

Bullies don’t respect ‘friendly gestures’, they only back down when stood up to, which the West has failed to do.

[etudiant]

And what would be a ‘friendly gesture’ to China? Recognise China as the sole sovereign of the South China Sea? Turn a blind eye to their behaviour towards Hong Kong and Taiwan? Be unconcerned about their ‘Belt and Road’ activities in poor but resource-rich countries?

Bullies don’t respect ‘friendly gestures’, they only back down when stood up to, which the West has failed to do.

An alternative perspective might be that China is more than fully occupied keeping the peace domestically, given the huge disparities in wealth and the massive social pressures generated by their reliance on migrant labor from impoverished rural areas. China cuts hard nosed deals and is very comfortable with silver bullets to eliminate obstacles, just as various western companies do. So they are also determined to be respected, a real change from previous norms.
For an economy with massive excess capacity (10x the annual steel production of the US), Belt and Road is an analog to the Eisenhower 'Food for Peace' initative, which dumped surplus US food overseas, thereby destroying the local agricultural economy.

[fitliker]

And who’s role will it be to “keep the peace” in that region?

Those who have business interests in that area . National aspirations were abandoned under the guise of granting Independence to locals under anti- colonial policies after WW2 .

[fitliker]

[QUOTE=JustinHeywood;10896581]And what would be a ‘friendly gesture’ to China? Recognise China as the sole sovereign of the South China Sea? Turn a blind eye to their behaviour towards Hong Kong and Taiwan? Be unconcerned about their ‘Belt and Road’ activities in poor but resource-rich countries?

Bullies don’t respect ‘friendly gestures’, they only back down when stood up to, which the West has failed to do.[/QUOTE

They have bought so many politicians , they think they own us as well :)

[TBM-Legend]

An alternative perspective might be that China is more than fully occupied keeping the peace domestically, given the huge disparities in wealth and the massive social pressures generated by their reliance on migrant labor from impoverished rural areas. China cuts hard nosed deals and is very comfortable with silver bullets to eliminate obstacles, just as various western companies do. So they are also determined to be respected, a real change from previous norms.
For an economy with massive excess capacity (10x the annual steel production of the US), Belt and Road is an analog to the Eisenhower 'Food for Peace' initative, which dumped surplus US food overseas, thereby destroying the local agricultural economy.


​​​​​​It was sixty-five years ago when President Dwight Eisenhower signed into law a program that would save millions of lives. The Food for Peace program has been our main tool for feeding the world's hungry ever since.

One of Food for Peace’s first tests was helping victims of the Korean War. Through food assistance and help with rebuilding agriculture, Food for Peace saved South Korea. Millions of South Korean children received nutritious milk at school to combat malnutrition. South Korea is today a donor of food aid to other countries.

Italy, Germany, Austria and other nations received Food for Peace donations to help complete their long recovery from World War II.
https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2018/11/28/USAT/d8b6215e-b926-4099-b98a-2c8988a123c2-01.JPG?width=660&height=440&fit=crop&format=pjpg&auto=webpToday, with so much war and arms spending around the globe, we need more Food for Peace. It is ending hunger, which is the road to global stability. Our aid programs, including Food for Peace, can lead the way if Congress and President Trump provide them enough support.

That's why for the 65th anniversary of Food for Peace on July 10, a group of charities is assembling on Capitol Hill at the Dirksen Senate Office Building. They want to show members of Congress what Food for Peace is doing and what more it can do if given enough funding. Bread for the World, Catholic Relief Services, World Food Program USA, Save the Children, CARE, Action against Hunger and others will be leading the event.
Congress must pay attention because we are facing massive levels of hunger around the globe. Civil wars in Yemen, Syria and South Sudan have dramatically escalated hunger and displacement. The conflict in the Sahel and drought in East Africa are some of the other crisis points now unfolding. Peace can never be won in Afghanistan as long as hunger and malnutrition continue there.

Food must be at the top of our foreign policy agenda, or it will most certainly fail.
Tragically, very little attention is given to food and hunger issues compared to military might. As Eisenhower once said, "The world cups its ear to hear the rattling of rockets. It listens less closely to the sounds of peace and well-being which emanate from the slow but steady improvement in world health and nutrition."

This lack of attention hurts because little funding is given to the program. In fact, the Trump administration has proposed reducing food aid and even eliminating some programs.
We need to remember how important food is for nations today. You cannot have peace if people are hungry and malnourished. No economy can develop if the people are weak from lack of food. In hunger emergencies you risk losing millions of children to the stunting caused by malnutrition. These children may perish unless that lifeline arrives.

Congress should increase funding for Food for Peace and also the McGovern-Dole global school lunch program. As part of these initiatives, we must encourage agricultural development in these countries so they can build self-sufficiency in supplying food.
We need to approach our foreign policy with a Food for Peace frame of mind, realizing that hunger is a global crisis we cannot ignore.

As Eisenhower wrote of Food for Peace, “My earnest hope is our people will put their hearts and minds into this effort. It is an effort that I consider in full keeping with American tradition — helping people in dire need who with us are devoted to upholding and advancing the cause of freedom."

William Lambers partnered with the UN World Food Program and Catholic Relief Services on the book, "Ending World Hunger." His writings have been published by the NY Times, History News Network, Newsweek, The Hill and many other media outlets.
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[Asturias56]

"Bullies don’t respect ‘friendly gestures’, they only back down when stood up to,"

Trouble is flitlicker that simplistic statement has been used as the justification for 95% of military actions in the last 70 years - and its often turned out to be simplistic & wrong and has turned into a disaster - Suez, Vietnam 3 times), Yemen (twice), Afghanistan (twice), Iraq, Libya

you can see why people aren't very convinced

[fitliker]

The best way to deal with bullies is to get your retaliation in first :)

[JustinHeywood]

"Bullies don’t respect ‘friendly gestures’, they only back down when stood up to,"

...that simplistic statement has been used as the justification for 95% of military actions in the last 70 years - and its often turned out to be simplistic & wrong and has turned into a disaster - Suez, Vietnam 3 times), Yemen (twice), Afghanistan (twice), Iraq, Libya


Well, not really. Vietnam was largely Cold War by proxy and the Middle East conflicts are too complex to be comparable.

But if you’re looking for a more accurate analogy, look no further than Germany in the late 30’s. An oppressive totalitarian state expanding its boundaries on flimsy pretexts, constantly testing the resolve of surrounding democracies.
Appeasing that bully certainly didn’t end well.

[Asturias56]

I'd say most wars have complex roots and I'm not saying you should never fight a war.

But Germany in the 1930's has been used as an excuse (certainly in the West) ever since - and it's led to a lot of awful outcomes.

Two where "bullying" was successfully dealt with were the Falklands and Kuwait 1990 - but there you had clear casus belli, a clearly defined aim and a limited, conventional opponent.

I can't see China in the same light. No voter will support a major war against China over a few islands, nor will anyone sane risk an all out war against them. Are we intending to invade China? I can see we could evict them from a few islands but what if they then take over Taiwan? Are we ahead or behind?

It's very easy to call for military action - and on this site there is more than average support for using the military - but I always think of Isaac Asimov "violence is the last resort of the incompeternt"

[JustinHeywood]

...No voter will support a major war against China [over a few islands]



While I agree that it’s not worth going to war over the Spratlys etc, therein lies the problem. Where do you draw a line or when do you call the bluff?

I’d like to say that our leaders have it under control, but I think the Western democracies are weaker than they’ve ever been. And China knows it.

[dr dre]

"Bullies don’t respect ‘friendly gestures’, they only back down when stood up to,"

Trouble is flitlicker that simplistic statement has been used as the justification for 95% of military actions in the last 70 years - and its often turned out to be simplistic & wrong and has turned into a disaster - Suez, Vietnam 3 times), Yemen (twice), Afghanistan (twice), Iraq, Libya

you can see why people aren't very convinced

I was told bullies were bigger kids who picked on smaller kids when alone, usually with the help of their buddies, so they would be easy targets. In all these conflicts it was usually only one bigger side with allies picking on a smaller country that wasn't comparable in strength.

I was also told bullies tend to back off like cowards when they come up against a nation that is similar to them in strength. I'm just wondering that if the nation that was the bigger side in most of those aforementioned conflicts has finally met someone who isn't going to be like Afghanistan or Iraq?

That article about increased British presence in East Asia? Well that's an example of an elderly frail former boxer who has suffered a bout of dementia and has deluded themselves into thinking they can take on a current heavyweight champ contender over 12 rounds.

[Less Hair]

This needs to be countered on the trade front not with military means. However it must be demonstrated that high seas and reefs are still high seas and not anybody's territorial waters. This is UN law accepted and signed by China.
China can have no interest to force the west to trade embargoes.

[Asturias56]

Interesting article in thsi weeks Economist on defending Taiwan

The main take-away is :-"Defending Taiwan is growing ever harder. A decade ago China had four times as many warships as Taiwan. Today it has six times as many. It has six times the number of warplanes and eight times as many tanks. China’s defence budget, merely double Taiwan’s at the end of the 1990s, is now 25 times greater .

American intelligence officials do not think that China is about to unleash this firepower. The PLA’s amphibious fleet has grown slowly in recent years. China has never held even a single exercise on the scale that would be required for a D-Day-type campaign. Indeed, no country has assaulted a well-defended shore since America did so in Korea—with good reason."

They quote studies showing he island is very defensible given the will to do it.

However they reckon the Taiwanese military are tank & plane heavy (most war games show neither would last long in a real invasion) and short on anti-ship missiles that would make mincemeat out of a landing force. Worse they have a poor record of training, that only half of Taiwanese seem willing to fight inf there is an invasion and that only 20% think there will be a war. them of course is the question of what casualties the US and others are willing to take

[Big Pistons Forever]

The F 15 has a 110 to 0 record in air to air engagements. Many of these battle were with aircraft that were close to or equal in technical capabilities. The reason for this was not technology or numbers, it was the aircraft were operated by Western or Westernized Air Forces. This meant they had the overwhelming advantages in supply chain, maintenance support, training, exercising, and command and control.

China may have lots of ships and planes but they still have a culture that subordinates military competence to political fealty at all levels but crucially among the senior leadership. They can dabble at delusions of regional hegemony, but they will never be a threat to Western Militaries.

The question of Taiwan is an interesting one. I believe the chance of invasion is effectively nil. I think Xi has got to know that it would be a bloody, ugly campaign that would highlight the inadequacies of the PLA. Conversely an invasion of Taiwan would be a very bad indicator for the rest of the world. It would indicate that control by the Communist party was so shaky that a risky military adventure was preferable than dealing with domestic issues. This would be a very bad development and portend a potential very messy and uncontrolled reordering of China's internal power structure. That would not end well......

[HAS59]

It is the Chinese container ship which is the warship which has already subdued the world, in a trade war.

Look around you, at the clothes you wear the furniture you sit on and most of the items you touch. The majority of them were made in China. By small degrees they have turned the art of manufacturing into a world dominating force. Industrial villages are built around manufacturing plants, where whole tower blocks of workers move as one at shift change time. The workers are getting better paid and want more, their domestic market is vast, but is still geared to export.

Could the world just decide not to buy Chinese? We could probably live without the inflatable Santa dolls but many of the shelves would be empty. Millions of stupid Brits don’t know or don’t care where their cheap toaster comes from, only that it’s cheap.

This industrial strength has given China a sense of rebirth. They talk now of an end to the years of humiliation and plan for the 100th anniversary of the birth of the Chinese Communist Party. Absolute loyalty to the party is demanded with any dissent quickly stifled. World dominance by 2049 is a possibility.

Those that belittle the growth of their modern armed forces clearly do not understand what they are for. As an example, the rapid growth of significant numbers of high-quality ships of all types, now exercising in complex all-arms evolutions are there to be seen. The training is realistic with risks accepted. China wants the world to know what it has, what it can do and how often.

Add to this a strong Chinese leadership aware of the dwindling effectiveness of many western politicians and you see China simply ignoring the UN when it pleases them, changing their boundaries, when it pleases them, always pushing.

There is no need for China to fight anyone, just for China to be in a position where no-one else will actually fight back. Taiwan is a lost cause, but they are not in a hurry. Eventually one flag will replace another and the sun will still rise and fall.

The self-proclaimed unrecognised 9 dashed line (or 11) in the South China Sea is still there and is not going away, there is a lot of posturing and probing but it is all too little – too late. The island reefs that matter are already occupied and fortified. A refuelling base will be built there to support operations in the Indian Ocean and beyond. What is the world to do?

Get used to it.



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[finestkind]

[QUOTE=HAS59;10902606]It is the Chinese container ship which is the warship which has already subdued the world, in a trade war.

Look around you, at the clothes you wear the furniture you sit on and most of the items you touch. The majority of them were made in China. By small degrees they have turned the art of manufacturing into a world dominating force. Industrial villages are built around manufacturing plants, where whole tower blocks of workers move as one at shift change time. The workers are getting better paid and want more, their domestic market is vast, but is still geared to export.

So true.Apart from the mad dictator/politician/capitalistic entrepreneur’s (war makes money) it is obvious that a conventional war is expensive. Easier, cheaper, and more profitable to buy the country by whatever means is available. Hence the rhetoric from American and other countries is we need to start making our own products and buy from home.

[steamchicken]

Only half of Taiwanese seem willing to fight inf there is an invasion

I think I've seen the same poll. The cross-breaks are really interesting - the number for the 18-24 age group is 90 odd per cent YES, a bit less for the next up. In other words, the people who would have to go and fight and the field grade officers who would lead them are up for it.

The question is whether the well-off and established who make the procurement and force structure decisions are willing to prepare and pay the taxes. That said, look how well their government has done coping with the virus. Who's willing, again?

[unmanned_droid]

HAS59, about the only thing that seems reasonable is levelling the islands to push any aggression back to the mainland. Problem is, they'd just cause trouble in the Himalayas.

[Big Pistons Forever]

I think I've seen the same poll. The cross-breaks are really interesting - the number for the 18-24 age group is 90 odd per cent YES, a bit less for the next up. In other words, the people who would have to go and fight and the field grade officers who would lead them are up for it.

The question is whether the well-off and established who make the procurement and force structure decisions are willing to prepare and pay the taxes. That said, look how well their government has done coping with the virus. Who's willing, again?

China could maybe capture and subdue the coastal areas but you could keep an insurgency going in the interior for a good while. Personally I think soldier for soldier the Taiwanese are considerably better then your average PLA conscript, plus they are fighting for their home.

[HAS59]

The impression of the competence of 'the average Chinese conscript' could perhaps be a little outdated.
Conscription still exists, but for two years instead of four.
Recruitment teams now scour high schools colleges and universities to enlist those they feel would benefit the military.
They do the same in defence and scientific industries to 'borrow' key workers, these are the conscripts of today.
The old Soviet era equipment could be managed by a team including the average conscript, but not the modern technologically advanced equipment in service.
Make no mistake these young military personnel receive the training they need, they exercise in rigorous realistic risky exercise scenarios.
They and their leaders are of course not combat tested, that does not make them any less determined.

[Big Pistons Forever]

The impression of the competence of 'the average Chinese conscript' could perhaps be a little outdated.
Conscription still exists, but for two years instead of four.
Recruitment teams now scour high schools colleges and universities to enlist those they feel would benefit the military.
They do the same in defence and scientific industries to 'borrow' key workers, these are the conscripts of today.
The old Soviet era equipment could be managed by a team including the average conscript, but not the modern technologically advanced equipment in service.
Make no mistake these young military personnel receive the training they need, they exercise in rigorous realistic risky exercise scenarios.
They and their leaders are of course not combat tested, that does not make them any less determined.

Yes but the fact remains that enlisted soldiers remain a low status job. I also would suggest that while the PLA is starting to practice joint operations all the available evidence suggests these are still scripted to make the senior officers look good. They are a long way from the standard seen in Western military’s, especially the idea that people have to make mistakes to get better, a concept utterly foreign to the PLA.

[Asturias56]

The Economist point that no-one has made a opposed landing since Korea is a good one - the nearest thing would be the Falklands where the opposition turned up a few critical hours later and nearly wrecked the party even so.

When you think of the planning that went into D-Day for example... and that was the accumulation of 2 years smaller invasions - some of which went well (Sicily, Algeria) and those that didn't (Dieppe, Salerno). The PLA would be really pushing their luck to try a one-off invasion without a "practice" first to test kit, people and doctrine.

Perhaps once they start gobbling up the small Taiwanese held islands close to the mainland will be the time to start to worry about a cross- straight operation

[HAS59]

the idea that people have to make mistakes to get better, a concept utterly foreign to the PLA.

With respect sir, in the Chinese Navy things have changed and continue to do so.
U.S. Navy Capt. Dale Rielage writes in ‘The National Interest’ (5th March 2020)

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/could-chinese-navys-willingness-risk-it-all-beat-americas-experience-sea-129197

“…the Chinese navy is making its exercises risky — more so than many navies. Communist Party apparatchiks, who have outsized influence over military training, will even reward commanders for breaking the rules if it means winning.
“For example, a North Sea Fleet minesweeping unit was cited for exercising setting and sweeping live mines, accepting increased risk for added realism. In some cases, these commanders are praised for violating the parameters of an exercise to seize victory.”

https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/283x400/preview2_ca64ecc4652636d1d28b288320eb9d297f85d5f5.jpg


Also please see.

file:///F:/01%20-%20Ships/08a.%20China/zz%20Ch%20stuff/China-Maritime-Study-12_Recruitment-Education-Training-of-PLAN-Personnel_Allen-Clemens_201408.pdf

These people explain far more eloquently than I just how improved the training of their personnel has come in recent years.



file:///F:/01%20-%20Ships/08a.%20China/zz%20Ch%20stuff/China-Maritime-Study-14_Chinas-Evolving-Surface-Fleet_Dutton-Martinson_201707.pdf

This is also worth a read to gain an insight into what China will be capable of.

[Asturias56]

Links don't work but it looks like you can find them here:-

https://usnwc.edu/Publications/Reports-and-Studies

[fitliker]

Never underestimate an opponent . A scared conscript can be a squirrelly hard to hit target .
The calm professional is often predictable , you can wait for them at the latrine :)

[Big Pistons Forever]

Or the mess tent.......

[Big Pistons Forever]

The Proceedings article is a pretty good summary. Before I retired I had a subscription to the magazine. There were many thoughtful articles and an editorial policy tacitly encouraged from senior USN leadership, to question orthodoxy, criticize policy, and advocate out of the box ideas.

I am absolutely certain that the Chinese Navy has no equivalent publication, and never will. This speaks to the profound cultural imperatives of the Chinese Military which will always prioritize fealty to the party over military competence and will never allow criticism of senior Naval Leadership or any significant Naval policy

That being said the Chinese Navy definitely has capabilities that did not exist 10 years ago or even 3 years ago. The challenge is to dispassionately recognize the strengths and and the limitations of their Navy, and more importantly think about what are the realistic scenarios for Naval Force Projection as part of the larger Chinese foreign policy construct

[tartare]

Very interesting reading.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=cmsi-red-books
One passage stands out:

The existing amphibious fleet apparently is considered sufficient for China’s deterrence requirements. It is too small for a major campaign across the Taiwan Strait unless augmented by large numbers of civilian ships and other craft. The distribution of the force along the entire coast minimizes the chance for strategic surprise, as units would have to be assembled from all over the country to prepare for a large-scale amphibious operation. Chinese shipyards could surge amphibious craft production, but that too would be discovered easily.

I'd just assumed that at a moment's notice, they'd be able to flood marines and troops across the Strait and crush Taiwan.
Not so it would seem.

[Asturias56]

The Economist made the same point - especially about aircraft - although the PLAAF is very much larger than the TAF there are only a limited number of fields opposite Taiwan and they would be limited as to how much of the PLAAF they could deploy in the case of an invasion.

Again, if they start building more airfields you get a substantial warning period

[steamchicken]

"just borrow a lot of merchant ships, how hard can it be" - where have we heard that before? What's Chinese for Sealion?

[Lyneham Lad]

Article & photos in The Times today re a practice landing.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-simulates-island-invasion-after-catching-taiwanese-spies-b3pnghbwl?shareToken=574013baca61d4468d0f729326a0d348

(Sent from my iPad hence clumsy format)

[fitliker]

Or the mess tent.......

The mess tent where the most lethal warriors are to be found . Those men with the highest kill rate in any War . The Catering Corps :)

Apologies to my dear old departed Uncle who was a cook and never hurt anyone in anger until he got stuck in Burma .

[Lyneham Lad]

Article/photo/video on Flight Global:-
Chinese H-6N appears with mysterious ballistic missile (https://www.flightglobal.com/defence/chinese-h-6n-appears-with-mysterious-ballistic-missile/140671.article)

A brief video has emerged of a Xian H-6N bomber carrying what could be a ballistic missile or boost-glide vehicle along its centreline.

The video appeared on the Chinese internet on 17 October. It goes some way to confirming a long-held theory that one mission for the H-6N, the most advanced variant of the H-6 family, is lofting ballistic missiles.

Click link for full article.

[ORAC]

CH-AS-X-13, been known about for a couple of years. Grainy images from video not required.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2020/10/19/video-reveals-chinese-h-6n-bomber-carrying-suspected-hypersonic-weapon/

https://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/china/ch-as-13.htm


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[Buster Hyman]

I'd laugh if it was actually found to be an elaborate JATO (RATO). :}

[racedo]

Very interesting reading.
https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1013&context=cmsi-red-books
One passage stands out:

The existing amphibious fleet apparently is considered sufficient for China’s deterrence requirements. It is too small for a major campaign across the Taiwan Strait unless augmented by large numbers of civilian ships and other craft. The distribution of the force along the entire coast minimizes the chance for strategic surprise, as units would have to be assembled from all over the country to prepare for a large-scale amphibious operation. Chinese shipyards could surge amphibious craft production, but that too would be discovered easily.

I'd just assumed that at a moment's notice, they'd be able to flood marines and troops across the Strait and crush Taiwan.
Not so it would seem.

If you know how to read the warning signs you can see it. I have always believed that a cetain Intelligence agence was fully aware of the Argentinians adventure in advance, people not turning up to their usual place, being very very busy, movement of equipment, training going on. Just a question of what they did with it.

Bearing in mind UK took a while to get the task force on its way with all supplies and this was a competent, capable, well trained force then Argentina would have taken weeks longer.

It is not the noise to look for but the quiet and changes to habits as people really are creatures of habit.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times today:-

Taiwan denies arms race with China after sealing US missile deal (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dc882c5c-144d-11eb-bca5-e85774a5f3b9?shareToken=d801acbe9c0822a4e1cca0e239aa5d2c)

Article intro:-
Taiwan has insisted that it is not provoking an arms race with China after sealing a $1.8 billion missile deal with the US.

The island nation said that the package, which includes 135 precision land attack missiles manufactured by Boeing, 11 lorry-based rocket launchers with a striking range of more than 270 km and associated equipment and training, would enable it to modernise its defence capacity.

[etudiant]

It seems touchingly naive for the US to provide Taiwan with every technology available, including of course the most advanced semiconductor facilities in the world.
Taiwan is run by pragmatic people, once China makes them a sufficiently attractive offer, they will return to the motherland, taking their capabilities with them.

[Asturias56]

ermmm - think you'll find the technology to produce modern semiconductors has largely been developed in Taiwan............

[fitliker]

Just curious or coincidence that just days after more than 2500 Chinese fishing vessels chased the Japanese from their traditional fishing grounds . The Japanese are getting ready to allow Water from the Fukushima Nuclear disaster to be dumped into the Sea . Japanese Physops ? Who wants to eat poison fish ?
We definitely live in interesting times .

[etudiant]

ermmm - think you'll find the technology to produce modern semiconductors has largely been developed in Taiwan............

Taiwan is the world leader in advanced chip production, using more of the European built extreme UV lithography gear than anyone else. But they use technology from all over.
It is a measure of Intel's decay that they led the multi billion dollar rescue of the sole supplier of this essential equipment, ASML, when they were near failing some years ago, but now are struggling to use that gear effectively. Sadly the US has implemented free access to the world's talents for so long that it has forgotten that such access is subject to change, even though the proliferation of 'sanctions' make it much more likely.

[etudiant]

Just curious or coincidence that just days after more than 2500 Chinese fishing vessels chased the Japanese from their traditional fishing grounds . The Japanese are getting ready to allow Water from the Fukushima Nuclear disaster to be dumped into the Sea . Japanese Physops ? Who wants to eat poison fish ?
We definitely live in interesting times .

Still don't understand why Japan does not store this water in a few supertankers for a century, long enough to allow the radioactivity to decay. It would save them a lot of political headaches.

[Less Hair]

It's cheaper to just let it flow. I am surprised that this is internationally permitted and accepted. Even feels a bit like violating the test ban treaty. Waiting with the release after the Olympic Games at least indicates that there is some feedback expected to be feared for.

[ORAC]

It's cheaper to just let it flow. I am surprised that this is internationally permitted and accepted. Even feels a bit like violating the test ban treaty. Waiting with the release after the Olympic Games at least indicates that there is some feedback expected to be feared for. Less dangerous just to let it be diluted by seawater.

https://www.timworstall.com/2011/04/on-the-horrors-of-the-radioactive-water-from-fukushima/

[Less Hair]

NOAA pacific radiation map:
https://images.app.goo.gl/qBE1Vf1EWK41r4wK7

Still why not contain it instead of spreading it?

[Lyneham Lad]

More on Taiwan's latest arms purchase bids. Flight Global article.
Landmark Taiwan MQ-9 sale would vex Beijing (https://www.flightglobal.com/military-uavs/landmark-taiwan-mq-9-sale-would-vex-beijing/140715.article)

Intro:-
A reported US plan to sell the General Atomics Aeronautical Systems MQ-9 unmanned air vehicle (UAV) to Taiwan will complicate Beijing’s incessant prodding of the island’s defences.

Media reports indicate that the value of the potential Reaper sale is $400 million, part of an overall package worth $3 billion. Based on previous Foreign Military Sales (FMS) deals involving the Reaper, Taipei could end up with four examples of the medium-altitude, long-endurance (MALE) system. These could potentially be the SeaGuardian variant, which is optimised for maritime surveillance.

[etudiant]

It's cheaper to just let it flow. I am surprised that this is internationally permitted and accepted. Even feels a bit like violating the test ban treaty. Waiting with the release after the Olympic Games at least indicates that there is some feedback expected to be feared for.

Considering the accident cleanup will cost way north of $100 billion, the addition of a few tankers won't be noticed. That said, the tritium is not the only contaminant in that water, there are still other nuclear residues as well.
Afaik, Japan does plan to reprocess the water again before dumping it, hopefully with a more effective method, to leave the tritium as the main contaminant.

[Lookleft]

Things are starting to get interesting with the Europeans starting to sniff the strategic wind.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-06/german-navy-to-join-australia-indo-pacific-south-china-sea/12856678

[Prawn2king4]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1205991.shtml

[Lookleft]

I think there might be more to naval aviation than knowing which direction to put the throttle during a landing.

[etudiant]

Things are starting to get interesting with the Europeans starting to sniff the strategic wind.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-06/german-navy-to-join-australia-indo-pacific-south-china-sea/12856678

What a load of hot air from a defense chief who is visibly unable to keep her existing small force functional. Even the Kaiser's navy had a more competent Far East Squadron.

[ORAC]

Even the Kaiser's navy had a more competent Far East Squadron.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Falkland_Islands

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times
Australia strikes defence pact with Japan over China fears (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9281925a-2344-11eb-bb49-9a393f31c7ae?shareToken=deffb746e4d374c2501e69ef34bcf264)

Australia is to sign a defence pact with Japan as a bulwark against Beijing’s growing military power and assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region. The pact will contain a reciprocal agreement to allow the two signatories to deploy troops in each other’s territory, as well as mutual training arrangements and is “aimed at sending a strong message” to China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/europe-must-wake-up-to-china-threat-warns-ex-spy-chief-gerhard-schindler-7v8z7x69t). Scott Morrison, the Australian prime minister, is expected to travel to Tokyo within weeks to sign the agreement with Yoshihide Suga, his Japanese counterpart, Australia’s Financial Review newspaper reported.


The pact follows a sharp deterioration of relations between Canberra and Beijing, with China barring several categories of Australian exports after Mr Morrison called in April for a full investigation into the origins of the coronavirus, and criticised Beijing’s activities in the region.

It also comes after recent calls for the creation of a Nato-type defence alliance in Asia to act as a counterbalance to China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/mike-pompeo-pledges-us-support-for-asian-allies-that-resist-china-f57f7rtrn). India, the US, Australia and Japan are to conduct joint naval exercises together this month.

Beijing’s military has expanded and advanced rapidly in recent years. It is developing aircraft carrier strike groups, fortified several islets in the contested South China Sea, conducted almost continuous exercises around Taiwan on recent months and sought to crush Hong Kong’s autonomy and pro-democracy movement.

A pact between Australia and Japan would mark an extraordinary turn around for nations that were bitter Second World War enemies. Japan’s imperial forces bombed the north Australian city of Darwin more than 50 times and about 21,000 Australians were taken prisoner by Japanese forces in the Pacific who gained a reputation for brutality. About 7,500 of those captured would never return home.
Japan and Australia have increased defence co-operation in recent years, through joint exercises by ground, maritime and air forces and in military surveillance activities to prevent ship-to-ship transfers of banned goods by North Korea. Negotiations to finalise the pact are understood to have overcome concerns that Australian troops in Japan could in theory be exposed to the country’s laws, which allow capital punishment for the most serious crimes. Australia abolished the execution of offenders decades ago with the last taking place in 1967.

Britain, according to The Japan Times, has expressed its eagerness to agree a similar defence pact with Japan. The newspaper said talks may start after the Australian deal is concluded.

Figures released today suggested that China’s embargoes are taking a substantial toll on Australian exports, most notably coal, with Beijing reporting its imports of the fuel have fallen 47 per cent in October from the same month a year ago. It emerged too that two dozen Indian sailors have been stranded at a Chinese port for five months on board a ship blocked from unloading 170,000 tonnes of Australian coal. Jag Anand, an Indian registered bulk carrying vessel, left Gladstone in central Queensland on May 24 but has remained at Jingtang Port in northern China since June 13, unable to unload its cargo.

Australian companies, which send about 30 per cent of all exports annually to China, their largest overseas market, have been alarmed by reports over the past week that Beijing intends to block Australian wine, lobster, copper, sugar and timber.

Last week tonnes of live Australian lobster (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/lobster-left-to-rot-as-china-blocks-australian-trade-xt5kdxrdg) were stranded on the tarmac at a Chinese airport after the Chinese authorities raised fears the shipment might be contaminated.

Additionally:-
The United States expressed disappointment that Cambodia has demolished a second American-funded military facility without warning, as the kingdom turns to China to expand a naval base. The Cambodian authorities finished dismantling a maintenance facility at Ream base, built in 2017 with US money this month, after razing a tactical naval headquarters there in September. The Ream base is strategically located in the Gulf of Thailand, giving access to the South China Sea. The US said last month it fears the demolitions may be tied to plans for hosting Chinese military assets and personnel at the base.

[etudiant]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Falkland_Islands

Spee at least managed a competent fighting squadron, as the Coronel engagement proved.
He has been criticized for not going for broke at the Falklands encounter, attacking at dawn rather than trying to flee from a faster squad at the start of the day. Bad strategy, but he was a fighter leading a functioning command.
Germany today can muster nothing comparable and looks laughable when it pretends to have impact.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-turns-ladakh-battleground-with-india-into-a-microwave-oven-6tlwtrtzz

China turns Ladakh battleground with India into a ‘microwave oven’

China’s military used microwave weapons to force Indian troops to retreat during a months-long border standoff in the Himalayas, according to an account that has emerged in Beijing.

Its forces had turned two strategic hilltops that had been occupied by Indian soldiers ‘into a microwave oven’, forcing them to retreat and allowing the positions to be retaken without an exchange of conventional fire, according to Jin Canrong, a professor of international relations at Beijing-based Renmin University.

In a lecture he said that the People’s Liberation Army “beautifully” seized the ground without violating a no-live-shot rule governing the rules of engagement in the high-altitude standoff between the two Asian powers. Microwave weapons focus high frequency electro-magnetic pulses or beams at targets and cause irritation and pain by heating up any human tissue in its way.

“We didn’t publicise it because we solved the problem beautifully,” Mr Jin said. “They [India] didn’t publicise it, either, because they lost so miserably.”

The professor said that Chinese troops fired the weapon from the bottom of the hills and “turned the mountain tops into a microwave oven”.

“In 15 minutes, those occupying the hilltops all began to vomit,” he said. “They couldn’t stand up, so they fled. This was how we retook the ground.”.......

In his lecture, Professor Jin said that India mounted a surprise attack on August 29 when it deployed a team of Tibetan soldiers, known for their mountaineering skills, to seize two critical hilltops on the southern bank of the Pangong Tso Lake.

“At the time, the western theatre command [of the People’s Liberation Army] was under huge pressure,” the scholar said. “These two hilltops are very important but we’d lost them. The central military commission was quite furious, ‘How could you be so careless as to let India seize the hilltops?’, so it ordered the ground be taken back, but it also demanded that no single shot be fired.”

Professor Jin added it was almost impossible for the Chinese soldiers, most of whom were from the lowlands, to wage any effective combat at an altitude of 5,600 metres. “Frankly speaking . . their bodies won’t stand it.

“Then they came up with the clever idea to use microwave weapons.”.....

[Asturias56]

Did they take a small, mobile nuclear reactor along to provide power?

[Buster Hyman]

I wonder if there was a little *DING!* when they ended the attack?

[Less Hair]

From now on every soldier will have to carry some metal spoon.

[fitliker]

You learn something every day , I never even knew that Tibet had any soldiers .

[Asturias56]

Actually right now in November a good warming blast of microwave is probably what the Indian side would appreciate

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times today.
US territory within range of Beijing’s new stealth bomber (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a519eb84-3018-11eb-8bd6-64d3c9126a9b?shareToken=bd09d4759e8816ae5cbc840e5e765b8b)

A new Chinese stealth bomber will give the country a “truly intercontinental capability” including the ability to strike US territory, leading western analysts have claimed.

Armed with nuclear missiles, the H-20 bomber marks a “major break” from China’s status as only a regional power, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies said in a review of Russian and Chinese air force development.

China has not unveiled the H-20 jet but it is at the centre of sweeping plans to upgrade its air power. The jet is due to replace the H-6 model as a nuclear-capable stealth bomber (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinas-nuclear-arsenal-will-double-in-next-decade-says-us-rtxq0tl3v) to rival the American B-2 series, whose wing design helps it to evade detection by radar.

However, the institute said there were “significant questions around China’s ability to produce engines with the dry thrust capacity for a true B-2 class aircraft.” It is nonetheless “fairly far along in development terms,” the report said.

The new bomber, which has been in development since 2016, is said to be capable of flying up to 5,000 miles without refuelling, allowing it to reach beyond the second island chain around China, including Japan, Guam and the US Mariana Islands, from bases on the mainland. Other reports suggest that it could cover more than 7,500 miles, allowing it to strike Hawaii. The American B-2 can travel about 6,000 miles.

Chinese hackers were accused in 2015 of stealing US stealth aircraft technology. Song Zhongping, a former instructor with the People’s Liberation Army, told the South China Morning Post that the H-20 had been designed to reach US territory as part of China’s nuclear triad, which also includes ground and sea-launched missiles.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/MEMRIReports/status/1333327936380936192?s=20

[Less Hair]

So he seems to fear some "Chinese Gorbachev" most? Why fear something when you claim seconds before you will rule the world anyway? Doesn't ad up somehow.

[Bueno Hombre]

Let me die of old age before we crush them.

[Lonewolf_50]

In The Times today.
US territory within range of Beijing’s new stealth bomber (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a519eb84-3018-11eb-8bd6-64d3c9126a9b?shareToken=bd09d4759e8816ae5cbc840e5e765b8b)
BFD.
We were in range of Soviet Strategic bombers and missiles throughout the Cold War.
Will the "Chicken Littles" never stop squawking? :p

[ORAC]

What they mean is Hawaii is in range of the new Chinese bomber - but mainland China is in range of American bombers from Hawaii, Guam and other forward bases - where China does not possess an equivalent.

[ORAC]

CJCS Milley Predicts DoD Budget ‘Bloodletting’ To Fund Navy (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/12/cjcs-milley-predicts-dod-bloodletting-to-fund-navy-priorities/)

WASHINGTON: In a major speech outlining important strategic shifts for the United States, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, an Army general (https://breakingdefense.com/tag/gen.-mark-milley/), today predicted “a lot of bloodletting” in the Pentagon as the military strives to get the Navy the hundreds of new ships (https://breakingdefense.com/tag/500-ship-navy/) it says it needs to confront China (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/chinese-party-sets-bold-military-goal-mechanized-informationized-by-2027/).

“I would advocate, and bias going forward, heavy investment” in sea, air and space-centric platforms, Milley said. As for the other priorities, he said, “none of it gets cut to zero; this is a matter of balancing things. It’s a very, very difficult exercise we’re going to have to go through. It’s going to be ruthless, there’s going to be a lot of bloodletting and a lot of stuff left on the floor. We’re gonna have to do that in the coming years — no question about it.”

Milley’s comments indicate the Army is likely to be the loser in the coming budget wars.

There have been rumblings for weeks (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/white-house-presses-army-air-force-to-help-pay-for-larger-navy/) that the new Navy shipbuilding plan, which calls for a fleet of about 500 ships, would be impossible under current budget projections, leading the Pentagon to eye Army and Air Force accounts to make up the difference.

Milley all but confirmed that.

“I don’t want to reveal my cards,” on the numbers being considered, he said at a virtual Navy Institute event (https://www.usni.org/events/defense-forum-washington-2020). “But I probably already did by saying we’re a maritime nation. We are, and the defense of the United States depends on air power and sea power primarily. People can say what they want and argue what they want, but that’s a reality.”.....

[Asturias56]

"Other reports suggest that it could cover more than 7,500 miles, allowing it to strike Hawaii."

I'm sure those who remember the amazing ranges ascribed to the Tu-22 during arms reduction talks way back will have a sense of deja-vu.

[Asturias56]

Interesting article in the Economist re the expansion of the Chinese Coast Guard - highlights:-

THE ZHAOTOU-CLASS cutter may be a lowly coastguard ship. But it is no pushover. At 12,000 tonnes, it is the world’s largest vessel built for such use. It looms over most American or Japanese destroyers. Its roomy deck accommodates two helicopters, a 76mm gun and a thicket of other weaponry. China has two of them. The arrival of the behemoth is intended to make a point: China backs its claims in that area with a panoply of steel. In November China published a draft law that would empower the coastguard to demolish other countries’ structures built on Chinese-claimed reefs, and to board and expel foreign vessels. In some circumstances it could even fire on hostile ships.

In 2013 China merged several civilian maritime law-enforcement agencies into a new unified one, called the Chinese Coastguard Bureau. Five years later this was put under the command of the People’s Armed Police, a paramilitary force that reports to the Central Military Commission, the country’s supreme military body. In effect, this turned China’s coastguard into a branch of the armed forces—much like its counterparts in America and India.

Today China’s coastguard has more than 500 ships. In the region, Japan is a distant second with 373. Others trail far behind. China’s ships have got beefier, too. A decade ago China had just ten vessels with a full-load displacement of at least 1,500 tonnes (about the size of a small warship). By 2015 it had 51 such ships. Today it has 87, says the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think-tank.

China has reacted huffily to other countries’ concerns about the draft coastguard law. To some extent, it is right to be miffed. Most of the bill’s provisions match those of laws elsewhere and accord with international norms, says Collin Koh of RSIS.

But there is every reason to worry about the Chinese law’s proposed scope. It covers China’s “jurisdictional waters”, a term that the country applies to most of the South China Sea, says Ryan Martinson of the US Naval War College. Most of those waters are claimed by other countries or regarded as part of the global commons. Article 22 of the draft bill would allow China’s coastguard to create “temporary exclusion zones”, potentially cordoning off swathes of open ocean.

[racedo]

BFD.
We were in range of Soviet Strategic bombers and missiles throughout the Cold War.
Will the "Chicken Littles" never stop squawking? :p

Heck US Territory was in range of Soviet Biplanes in the 1930's, the call the place Alaska..... no doubt there were some doing the same thing then . Texas is going to be bombed by the USSR who take 14 days to reach there to drop 50kgs of bombs. :rolleyes:

[racedo]

CJCS Milley Predicts DoD Budget ‘Bloodletting’ To Fund Navy (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/12/cjcs-milley-predicts-dod-bloodletting-to-fund-navy-priorities/)

WASHINGTON: In a major speech outlining important strategic shifts for the United States, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, an Army general (https://breakingdefense.com/tag/gen.-mark-milley/), today predicted “a lot of bloodletting” in the Pentagon as the military strives to get the Navy the hundreds of new ships (https://breakingdefense.com/tag/500-ship-navy/) it says it needs to confront China (https://breakingdefense.com/2020/11/chinese-party-sets-bold-military-goal-mechanized-informationized-by-2027/).

“I would advocate, and bias going forward, heavy investment” in sea, air and space-centric platforms, Milley said. As for the other priorities, he said, “none of it gets cut to zero; this is a matter of balancing things. It’s a very, very difficult exercise we’re going to have to go through. It’s going to be ruthless, there’s going to be a lot of bloodletting and a lot of stuff left on the floor. We’re gonna have to do that in the coming years — no question about it.”


Yet again the military planning for another war based on the last one.

Anybody who followed the recent conflict in the Caucuses will see how drone swarms pretty much nullified the ability of the defending army to counter the attacking one.

The lets send a couple of Capital ships to dissuade the enemy worked great as a theory in South China sea before, well that was until 10th December 1941 when Prince or Wales / Repulse met a watery grave.

The next war will need ships able to withstand wave after wave of inexpensive swarmed drones fitted with small exposives that can hit at any time, targeting radar / comms gear etc. The billion $$$ warship will lose to a $20,000 drone.

[ORAC]

The billion $$$ warship will lose to a $20,000 drone.
Who is talking about $B dollar warships? If you read recent posts/threads you’d realise that the USN expansion is going to be heavily based around small, fast drone ships....

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-us-navy-going-all-drone-ships-172932

[etudiant]

Who is talking about $B dollar warships? If you read recent posts/threads you’d realise that the USN expansion is going to be heavily based around small, fast drone ships....

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-us-navy-going-all-drone-ships-172932

That is not where the USN dollars are going though,.Although the concept gets lots of ink, the funding is peripheral, because the big prestige projects such as the Ford carriers, the SSBN subs and the cruisers suck up every spare penny.
The Navy is cruising for another Pearl Harbor, with its eyes firmly on the past. Some part of it understands that is a problem, but they are a minority, just as the aviation enthusiasts were in the 1930s, only these are even less influential.

[racedo]

That is not where the USN dollars are going though,.Although the concept gets lots of ink, the funding is peripheral, because the big prestige projects such as the Ford carriers, the SSBN subs and the cruisers suck up every spare penny.
The Navy is cruising for another Pearl Harbor, with its eyes firmly on the past. Some part of it understands that is a problem, but they are a minority, just as the aviation enthusiasts were in the 1930s, only these are even less influential.

I agree.

Pentagon budgets will be confronted by reality that US has not got the $$$ to continually sustain a spend spend spend mentality.

Sadly US feels like Rome, continual escapades far from home while the homeland is falling apart racked by political infighting with seats of Govt distrusted by Govt and wholly ineffective. A tipping point eventually gets reached when Allies doubt you.

[dead_pan]

That is not where the USN dollars are going though,.Although the concept gets lots of ink, the funding is peripheral, because the big prestige projects such as the Ford carriers, the SSBN subs and the cruisers suck up every spare penny.
The Navy is cruising for another Pearl Harbor, with its eyes firmly on the past. Some part of it understands that is a problem, but they are a minority, just as the aviation enthusiasts were in the 1930s, only these are even less influential.

Whereas the Chinese have no problems embracing this tech, them not being hidebound by any significant naval history (at least in the modern era). I wouldn't be surprised if they've already developed a fleet of autonomous submarine drones, which routinely hang around major US vessels operating in the area, just in case. The ultimate loitering munition.

[Prawn2king4]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1209245.shtml

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/japan-builds-new-long-range-missile-to-defend-itself-from-neighbours-d5c3h6ds8

Japan builds new long-range missile to defend itself from neighbours

Japan is to build new long-range cruise missiles to defend itself against attack from China, the latest development in the east Asian arms race and a further erosion of the country’s pacifist constitutional position.

The ministry of defence will request ¥33.5 billion (£240 million) to upgrade an existing ground-to-sea missile into a weapon capable of travelling 300km (186 miles), according to Japanese media. It is also developing a high-speed gliding missile that could fly up to 1,000km, putting both China and North Korea in range.

The conservative ruling Liberal Democratic Party said over the summer that the country should prepare itself to launch pre-emptive strikes on foreign missile bases, a move that will alarm Japan’s neighbours and provoke anxiety among defenders of the postwar “peace constitution”.

The party’s defence committee gave its authority to a growing consensus in government that Japan needed to acquire the ability to destroy North Korean missiles (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/north-korean-missiles-can-evade-defences-3rgvj7mwq) on the ground before they are launched, rather than relying on missile defence systems to take them out in the air.

The immediate priority, however, is to defend Japan’s remote southwestern islands against Chinese attack (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/beijing-s-military-bases-in-disputed-seas-too-isolated-x60k7p6ml). Chinese coast guard vessels and patrol planes have been increasingly active around the uninhabited Senkaku Islands (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-troops-ready-to-take-on-china-over-disputed-senkaku-islands-5zzrm5sd9), administered by Japan, but claimed by Beijing under the name of the Diaoyus.

Earlier this year, Japan’s Self-Defence Forces deployed Type 12 missiles, which have a range of 100km, to Miyako island, part of the Nansei chain between the big island of Kyushu and Taiwan. This is the weapon that is to be upgraded to a 300km range, and adapted so that it can be fired from ships and planes, to deter and repel naval attack on the Senkakus, 200km away.....

[T28B]

That is not where the USN dollars are going though,.Although the concept gets lots of ink, the funding is peripheral, because the big prestige projects such as the Ford carriers, the SSBN subs and the cruisers suck up every spare penny.
The Navy is cruising for another Pearl Harbor, with its eyes firmly on the past. Some part of it understands that is a problem, but they are a minority, just as the aviation enthusiasts were in the 1930s, only these are even less influential. A friend sent me this link (https://news.usni.org/2020/10/06/secdef-esper-calls-for-500-ship-fleet-by-2045-with-3-ssns-a-year-and-light-carriers-supplementing-cvns). You may find it interesting. Whether or not that wish list will be viewed favorably by the next administration, and the one after that, and the one after that, is anyone's guess.

[etudiant]

A friend sent me this link (https://news.usni.org/2020/10/06/secdef-esper-calls-for-500-ship-fleet-by-2045-with-3-ssns-a-year-and-light-carriers-supplementing-cvns). You may find it interesting. Whether or not that wish list will be viewed favorably by the next administration, and the one after that, and the one after that, is anyone's guess.

A view of these ambitious plans from a former insider: https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/12/09/whats-next-for-the-bonhomme-richard-warship/
He pleads for cost control, but disappointingly offers no steps to achieve it.

[West Coast]

A friend sent me this link (https://news.usni.org/2020/10/06/secdef-esper-calls-for-500-ship-fleet-by-2045-with-3-ssns-a-year-and-light-carriers-supplementing-cvns). You may find it interesting. Whether or not that wish list will be viewed favorably by the next administration, and the one after that, and the one after that, is anyone's guess.

It’s been opined by those who should know (not I) that this will entail the navy getting funds that were earmarked for other services. Let the cat fight move from the eternal simmer to outright open warfare.

Then again, the Biden administration could very well say the current state of the navy is sufficient.

[Lonewolf_50]

It’s been opined by those who should know (not I) that this will entail the navy getting funds that were earmarked for other services. Let the cat fight move from the eternal simmer to outright open warfare. Yep,I think you are on target there Westy.
But, since there can be no appropriation for more than two years (see the Constitution), someone embarking on a 15 - 20 year ship building program is going to have to battle year after year to keep that program alive. The House of Representatives holds the purse strings on defense appropriations.
For a simlar historical reference, the 600-ship-Navy and the resignation of SecNav James Webb, mid-to-late 80's.
Then again, the Biden administration could very well say the current state of the navy is sufficient. Yeah, they could. The USAF is, I am sure, already staffing a position paper to send his way that says exactly that. So too the Gang in Green, aka, the US Army.

As a Naval officer (retired) and sometimes strategic thinker, I am frequently baffled by the raw BS that the Chief of Staff of the Air Force comes up with to claim that the USAF can do what the Navy does. (See that idiot McPeak and "virtual presence" in the mid 90's). I am sure the USAF will come up with more of the same this time around. The "US is a maritime nation" is 100% true. What isn't true is that this guarantees the USN first dip into the budget cup. (My further comments on the abortion that was the Defense Reorg of 1947 will not be regurgitated here).

@etudiant: I note that the author of that piece has been inside the belly of the beast on ship acquisition. (Everett Pyatt is a former assistant secretary of U.S. Navy for shipbuilding and logistics.) Getting ship cost under control is a major task for the next administration. That must begin with this project if there is to be any hope of achieving the 355-ship Navy (https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/commentary/2020/08/24/americas-355-ship-navy-does-not-have-to-be-the-current-fantasy/#:~:text=Current%20law%20and%20presidential%20policy,the%20U .S.%20Navy%20force%20goal.&text=Opposition%20was%20so%20strong%20that,this%20goal%20in% 20this%20administration.) defined by law, and preliminary to any expansion above the current 355-ship law and dream. Ain't that the truth.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-military-expansion-into-pacific-poses-greatest-threat-to-america-and-allies-3vm3mldp2

Chinese military expansion into Pacific ‘poses greatest threat to America and allies’

China represents the most “comprehensive, long-term” threat to America and its allies of any world power, the US military has claimed.

The warning comes amid fears about the true purpose of a £112 million fishing complex Beijing is building close to Australia’s waters.....

Among looming concerns is a deal between China and Papua New Guinea (PNG) to build a fisheries complex in the Torres Strait, 40 miles from Australia’s northern islands. The proposal has provoked fears that the plant will become a de facto naval base for Beijing.

The Fujian Zhonghong Fishery Company has signed a deal backed by the Chinese government to build the A$200 million (£112 million) complex on the impoverished Daru island. Jeffrey Wall, a former adviser to PNG’s foreign ministry, suggested that Beijing would use the deal as a pretext to build a wharf capable of mooring Chinese navy ships 124 miles from mainland Australia.

In an article for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, a Canberra think tank close to defence leaders, Mr Wall wrote that the seas around Daru were not known to have commercial fishing resources. But he pointed out that they were “strategically as close to Australia as you can get”.

“In my view, what they are going to do, first of all, is build a very large wharf,” he said. “When you build a very large wharf, what do you build? Somewhere where naval vessels can land.”.....

[Lyneham Lad]

The Times article quoted by Orac (above) also contained contrasting numbers on fleet size. Likely to be reasonably correct or aimed at justifying more money for the US Navy?
Chinese military expansion into Pacific ‘poses greatest threat to America and allies’ (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/e6177b98-416a-11eb-87aa-2b872fbc5d91?shareToken=c7a86fd2d9d7d7d45d2a0e9a64bfe313)

The report underlined the challenge in the Indo-Pacific, saying that China was developing “the world’s largest missile force, with nuclear capabilities, which is designed to strike US and allied forces in Guam and the Far East with everything from ballistic missiles to manoeuvrable cruise and hypersonic missiles”.

The report said that China’s naval battle force had tripled in size in two decades. It was now larger than the American warship strength, with 350 ships and submarines as against the US Navy’s 293. In August China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy demonstrated for the first time an ability to hit a moving vessel with a long-range anti-ship ballistic missile.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Guardian today:-
Indonesian fisher finds drone submarine on possible covert mission (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/31/indonesian-fisher-finds-drone-submarine-on-possible-covert-mission)

An Indonesian fisher has found what experts say is likely to be a Chinese submarine drone in waters on a strategic maritime route from the South China Sea to Australia.

According to Indonesian media the unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) was found on 20 December near Selayar Island in South Sulawesi. Six days later it was handed to police and then transferred to the Indonesian military.

Military observers have said the drone appears to be a Chinese Sea Wing (or Haiyi) UUV. The underwater glider was developed by the Shenyang institute of automation at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and is publicly described as collecting data including seawater temperature, salinity, turbidity and oxygen levels. Information on currents and movement direction are transmitted in real time.

The Chinese central government has not commented.

Click the link for photos and remainder of the article.

[Asturias56]

"The Times article quoted by Orac (above) also contained contrasting numbers on fleet size. Likely to be reasonably correct or aimed at justifying more money for the US Navy?2

A detailed analysis I read about about 3 years ago noted the rapid expansion of the Chinese Fleet - it noted this also involved a non- monetary cost - quite a few different types and even within types the equipment fit varies a lot. Some of the older ships (that is older in a Chinese PLA (N) sense not a Western Navy) front line ships are equipped with versions of relatively low capability Western commercial systems (secondary radars for example) as well


The writer noted that this sort of variation brings negative effects in W fleets and could see no reason why it wouldn't also affect the Chinese

[TBM-Legend]

"The Times article quoted by Orac (above) also contained contrasting numbers on fleet size. Likely to be reasonably correct or aimed at justifying more money for the US Navy?2

A detailed analysis I read about about 3 years ago noted the rapid expansion of the Chinese Fleet - it noted this also involved a non- monetary cost - quite a few different types and even within types the equipment fit varies a lot. Some of the older ships (that is older in a Chinese PLA (N) sense not a Western Navy) front line ships are equipped with versions of relatively low capability Western commercial systems (secondary radars for example) as well


The writer noted that this sort of variation brings negative effects in W fleets and could see no reason why it wouldn't also affect the Chinese


Quantity has a quality all of its own!

[Asturias56]

Agreed - when you see people spout on about sending the RN east again to "threaten" the Chinese.................... they must be in stitches in Beijing

[West Coast]

Agreed - when you see people spout on about sending the RN east again to "threaten" the Chinese.................... they must be in stitches in Beijing

I doubt they’re “in stitches” but rather seeing the another threat that must be mitigated and mulling over a political response as well.

[etudiant]

I'd classify 200% duties (on Australian wines iirc) as a vigorous 'political' response.
China is on its way to recovering its role as the producer of 40% of global GNP, after an almost 200 year hiatus.
They may have a slogan about political power growing out of the barrel of a gun, but they are quite aware that economic power is as potent, but more easily wielded and more flexible. They are using it effectively against the western 'coalition', as shown by the just negotiated EEC/China trade and investment agreement, which puts all the real issues off to further discussions, while giving China continued free rein, all because Germany is terrified that its auto industry, which is super dependent on the Chinese market, would face a calamity if China closed its borders.