The South China Sea's Gathering Storm

[unmanned_droid]

Well if the Falklands War was famously described as two bald men fighting over a comb I'm not sure what you'd call a fight over Doklam - a place so remote and so bloody useless (unless you are in the yak business) it's not true.

Google it to see the images.......

I guess if you want to fight at Doklam it has the benefit that collateral damage to civilians, civilisation and anything of value will be near zero................

Death by a thousand cuts. China had the resources to prod and poke wherever it likes, whenever it likes.

[Fareastdriver]

I was in a flight of Valiant tankers on Exercise Shiksha that flight refuelled some Javelins out to India in about 1963 because the same thing was going on.

We were, according to Harold Wilson, demonstrating Commonwealth Solidarity.

[Heathrow Harry]

"Death by a thousand cuts. China had the resources to prod and poke wherever it likes, whenever it likes."

They could take a thousand areas like Doklan and it wouldn't affect anyone's strategic integrity - not even India's

Go look at it... not all acreage is of equal value

If they are willing to waste time, manpower and money in the higher Himalayas I'm all for it - far better than building new anti-ship missile sites opposite Taiwan for example.....................

We spent a fortune in the Great Game and it was a total waste.

[tartare]

We spent a fortune in the Great Game and it was a total waste.

Not so sure about that Harry.
You're not a radioactive smoking ruin yet, and all still free.
Although the Empire's a tad smaller than it used to be.

[Heathrow Harry]

The Great Game I was referring to was the British efforts to keep the Russians out of Afghanistan in the days of the Empire................

We did but seeing what happened after 1979 we'd have been better off letting them have the place I think

[ORAC]

The value of Afghanistan during the “Great Game” in the time of the British Empire was as a buffer zone to keep Russia from interfering in India - the “Jewel in the Crown” - and which it succeeded in achieving.

[Heathrow Harry]

We fought several wars, lost a lot of good men and the Russians never went near the plce..

In those days they learnt from our mistakes.....

[ORAC]

Not strictly true. A good background.

BRITAIN V RUSSIA -THE GREAT GAME (http://myweb.tiscali.co.uk/kenanderson/histemp/thegreatgame.html)

[ORAC]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/05/02/china-added-missile-systems-on-spratly-islands-in-south-china-sea.html

China quietly installed defensive missile systems on strategic Spratly Islands in hotly contested South China Sea

China has quietly installed anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missile systems on three of its fortified outposts west of the Philippines in the South China Sea, a move that allows Beijing to further project its power in the hotly disputed waters, according to sources with direct knowledge of U.S. intelligence reports.

Intelligence assessments say the missile platforms were moved to the outposts in the Spratly Islands within the past 30 days, according to sources who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The placement of the defensive weapons also comes on the heels of China's recent South China Sea installation of military jamming equipment (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-installed-military-jamming-equipment-on-spratly-islands-u-s-says-1523266320), which disrupts communications and radar systems. By all accounts, the new coastal defense systems represent a significant addition to Beijing's military portfolio in one of the most contested regions in the world......

[FODPlod]

A demonstration of maritime 'soft power' as reported on the UK Defence Journal website:

HMS Albion arrives in Brunei for four-day visit (https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/hms-albion-arrives-in-brunei-for-four-day-visit/)

...HMS Albion has already completed a successful port call to the Indonesian capital of Jakarta since arriving in the area, the first visit by a British warship to that nation in nearly seven years and will be hoping to keep that pattern going as it continues its tour of the region.

Speaking in Jakarta prior to their departure for Brunei HMS Albion’s commanding officer, Captain Tim Neild, described the role of his deployment to “work with the UK’s partners to promote peace, security and prosperity in a region that is growing in strategic significance.”

From Brunei HMS Albion will continue heading north towards Japan and the Korean peninsula where it will look to join the work already being undertaken by the frigate HMS Sutherland. Britain’s unprecedented year of naval commitment to the Far East will then be followed up in coming months by HMS Argyll which will arrive later in the year for naval exercises under the auspices of the Five Powers Defence Arrangements.

[FODPlod]

There’s more from the South China Daily Post:

Canadian navy frigate HMCS Vancouver begins six-day port call in Hong Kong (https://sg.news.yahoo.com/canadian-navy-frigate-hmcs-vancouver-074750501.html)

A Canadian navy frigate began a six-day port call in Hong Kong on Thursday, ahead of an exercise with the Chinese navy outside of the city. The HMCS Vancouver arrived at about 10am, making the first port visit of its trip to Asia...

[ORAC]

http://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2018/05/14/why-is-china-expanding-its-airbase-160-miles-from-taiwan/

MELBOURNE, Australia — China (https://www.defensenews.com/naval/2018/01/23/no-slowdown-for-chinas-navy-aspirations/)is expanding an airbase on the East China Sea (https://www.defensenews.com/air/2017/02/10/us-chinese-aircraft-in-unsafe-encounter-in-south-china-sea/) coast, adding facilities that potentially allow it to permanently base combat aircraft closer to Taiwan and islands of which both China and Japan claim ownership.

Satellite photos taken in April show that the construction of new 24 aircraft shelters, taxiways and additional buildings are on the verge of being completed at the airbase near the town of Xiapu, in China’s coastal Fujian Province. The new aircraft shelters are built in a semi-dispersed state in six clusters of four, with two clusters built near the end of the single 1.7-mile-long runway and the rest located in one of two aircraft dispersal area which already has 15 of the 20 hardened and camouflaged aircraft shelters at the base. Each of the new shelters measures approximately 100 feet long and 60 feet wide, which is more than enough to accommodate China’s Sukhoi Su-30/35 and Shenyang J-11/15/16 Flanker family of fighter jets. (https://www.defensenews.com/air/2018/01/10/images-reveal-chinas-j-16-jets-stepping-up-introduction-into-service/)

Several military buildings have also been built as part of the upgrading project, which also includes five new barracks blocks along with what retired Col. Vinayak Bhat, who previously served as a satellite imagery analyst with the Indian Army, told Defense News appear to be parking garages and testing and inspection facilities for vehicles. Land clearing is also taking place at the north eastern corner of the base complex, suggesting more facilities could yet be added.

The semi-dispersed nature of the new aircraft shelters is a departure from the normal practice at Chinese bases, whose shelters are normally built in straight lines with the housed aircraft parked side by side, and is likely to reflect the frontline nature of the airbase.

The base is located just 160 miles from Taiwan’s capital Taipei and 225 miles from the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea, making it closer to the islands than the nearest Japanese combat aircraft which are based 260 miles away at Naha in Okinawa. China is also claiming ownership of the islands, which it calls the Diaoyu Islands.

The construction of the new aircraft shelters at the airbase could point to China upgrading it to a fully-fledged operational airbase with its own permanently assigned combat aircraft regiment or brigade. It had previously been used only as a deployment base since completion in 2012, hosting ongoing rotating detachments of approximately 12 People’s Liberation Army Air Force or PLAAF fighter jets........

https://www.armytimes.com/resizer/02zKAhYr8HjJUwjtpqUffR3hpk4=/600x0/filters:quality(100)/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-mco.s3.amazonaws.com/public/AGWO4KC5ZNG4LKPIR2PK26IM7E.jpg

[tartare]

Plan well on track to invade by 2020 (https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/could-china-flash-invade-taiwan/).

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/warning-sounded-over-chinas-debtbook-diplomacy

[Heathrow Harry]

Debts in thirld world countries aren't collectable. They just shrug and renege... ask any western country

[ORAC]

the West didn't enforce payment. Like comparing loans from Lloyds and the Mafia....

[Barksdale Boy]

It seems to me that 2020 is unlikely. I suspect that Xi Jinping has decided that it's not on in the short term and that is why he has made it possible for himself to seek further terms in office and to wait for a time when America's resolve may have diminished. He eyes his place on the pantheon and to be up there with the greats you have to have reunited China - a country that has continually split and come together again over the centuries. On the other hand, nothing that China does ceases to surprise me.

[tartare]

It seems to me that 2020 is unlikely. .

I hope you're right.
But personally, I see a rapidly emboldening (is that a word?) China - led a by a shrewd and calculating authoritarian strongman - and I believe that somewhere in Beijing, there is a 20 year plan of militarisation of the Nine Dash Line, the deployment of viable CVAs, the not so subtle economic diplomacy in the South West Pacific and the veiled threats to Australia are all part of.
Am part way into a book about CCP influence in Australia; it was derided by Chinese commentators as biased and xenophobic when published - yet so far it seems very reasonably argued - and more than a little disturbing.
Had the privilege of spending two weeks in Shanghai with the BBC in 2001, producing two programs on the Internet in China.
Two things remain with me to this day.
The jaw dropping, complete lack of knowledge (honest) of our lovely young Chinese interpreter and guide about Tiananmen Square, and more latterly the Hainan Island P3 incident which had happened months before.
And the absolute certainty that China rivalled ancient Rome and other similar societies, and should therefore be accorded the due international respect they deserve.
I like my Peking duck, Chinese culture and mad, cosmopolitan craziness of Shanghai as much as anyone else.
But I feel this is all going to get very ugly.

[ORAC]

”describing the exercise as preparation for “the west Pacific and the battle for the South China Sea”.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/19/china-says-air-force-lands-bombers-on-south-china-sea-islands

China lands nuclear strike-capable bombers on South China Sea islands

China’s air force has landed bombers on islands and reefs in the South China Sea (https://www.theguardian.com/world/south-china-sea) as part of a training exercise in the disputed region, it said in a statement. Several bombers of various types – including the long-range, nuclear strike capable H-6K – carried out landing and take off drills at an unidentified island airfield after carrying out simulated strike training on targets at sea, the Chinese airforce said.

“A division of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) recently organised multiple bombers such as the H-6K to conduct take-off and landing training on islands and reefs in the South China (https://www.theguardian.com/world/china) Sea in order to improve our ability to ‘reach all territory, conduct strikes at any time and strike in all directions’,” it said. The statement said the pilot of the H-6K bomber conducted assault training on a designated sea target and then carried out take-offs and landings at an airport in the area, describing the exercise as preparation for “the west Pacific and the battle for the South China Sea”.

The notice, published on the PLAAF’s Weibo microblogging account, did not provide the precise location of the exercise........ In an analysis published on its website, CSIS said the location of the runway was believed to be Woody Island, China’s largest base in the Paracel Islands, which is also claimed by Vietnam and Taiwan........

http://alert5.com/2018/05/18/h-6k-bombers-carried-out-touch-and-go-training-in-paracel-islands/

https://youtu.be/2HP6HZS4hDM

[megan]

A Chinese plan to isolate Australia?

https://chineseaidmap.lowyinstitute.org/

Russian interest?

Russian naval ship set to dock in Port Moresby but Papua New Guinea, Australia downplay visit - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-05-14/russian-naval-ship-headed-for-papua-new-guinea/9759856)

Tu-95 over the south Pacific.

Australian Defence Force on heightened alert during Russian military exercise in Indonesia - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) (http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-12-30/australia-on-alert-during-russian-military-exercise-in-indonesia/9293362)

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australia-fears-chinese-influence-in-pacific-as-tonga-admits-debt-distress-mxzc9j9fr

Fears over Pacific ‘debt colonies’ as Tonga struggles to repay China

Fears that China is using loans as leverage over Pacific nations to expand its military footprint have sharpened after the island state of Tonga admitted it was in “debt distress”. Critics say that credit extended by Beijing and by Chinese state banks to impoverished developing nations with limited ability to repay them constitutes a form of “debt colonialism” and is a pretext to advance China’s wider strategic aims, including new bases allowing it to project military power deep into the South Pacific. Tonga’s prime minister said yesterday that he was concerned that Beijing was preparing to seize assets in exchange for unpaid debts and urged neighbouring Pacific countries that also owe money to band together and press for the loans to be written off.

Tonga’s prime minister, said that repayments it has to make to China’s Export Import Bank on two loans totalling $116 million will put severe financial pressure on his nation of 109,000 people. The loans are worth more than a quarter of its GDP. “It has become a serious issue. We have debt distress,” he told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation before next week’s meeting of Pacific leaders, including those from Australia and New Zealand.

He raised the prospect that China might seize Tongan assets if the island nation defaulted on its repayments — citing as a precedent Beijing’s recent takeover of a Sri Lankan port after Colombo struggled with a spiralling debt. “If it happens in Sri Lanka, it can happen in the Pacific — so it is entirely an option for China to consider,” Mr Pohiva said. “It is no longer an individual issue for countries to consider. It has become now an issue for all countries who have loans from China. I think these small countries will eventually come together to find a way out.”

Beijing defended its lending to small Pacific states as “sincere and unselfish” and said that it only provided loans to nations that could afford the repayments.

For years Beijing denied that it was militarising the South China Sea but it has fortified islets and reefs that it claims with runways and missile batteries. Now it appears to be expanding its aims much farther into the Pacific. Tonga is one of several nations in the region that have obtained finance from China, prompting fears within the Australian government that some of the money has been spent on highly questionable projects. In January Australia’s minister for the Pacific, Concetta Fierravanti-Wells, said: “We want to ensure that the infrastructure that you do build is actually productive and is actually going to give some economic benefit or some sort of health benefit. We just don’t want to build a road that doesn’t go anywhere.”

Sydney’s Lowy Institute think tank, which has closely monitored China’s activities in the Pacific, has calculated that Beijing has poured nearly $1.8 billion into Pacific countries since 2006. Canberra expressed alarm in April that China had apparently approached Vanuatu, about 1,200 miles northeast of Brisbane, about establishing a permanent Chinese military presence on a key gateway to Australia’s east coast.

Among the projects that China’s $243 million in aid to Vanuatu has built is the largest wharf in the South Pacific, considered capable of accommodating aircraft carriers.

https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/www.gmforum.com-vbulletin/996x664/methode_2ftimes_2fprod_2fweb_2fbin_2fc5c199dc_a18f_11e8_a91a _0484d8635c3f_93a4b7c57e5e30e0df4a2cda3a8dafb4c9a223b1.png

[Davef68]

I wouldn't be surprised to see several African countries experiencing the same squeeze, but over minerals rather than territory.

Jonathan Freedland wrote a novel based on China doing similar to the US. Maybe not so fanciful fiction now.

[Heathrow Harry]

I was in Tonga a couple of years back and the problem was obvious then.

Trouble is these small nations (and their rulers) want all the bells and whistles of the larger countries and have nowhere near enough income to pay for the life style. Tonga has been exporting people for years - the best & the brightest go off to New Zealand or Australia, the country runs on patronage, the only "resource" is fishing licences. Who can forget the time they had TWO airlines for example - both of which went bust IIRC - when the Tongan Navy literally had no fuel available at all. They were dependent on the RNZN to carry out basic tasks such as moving supplies to the northern islands at the time

The Chinese are willing to pay for influence - I doubt it will do them a lot of good in the long-term - but unless the rest of the world is willing to stump up they're the only show in town for places like Tonga, Nauru etc etc

[Kerosene Kraut]

Sounds like some western coordinated economic development plan for these areas would be the best strategic move to counter/contain Chinas expanding influence? They plan very long time for sure and many moves ahead over tens of years. Just look how "they" buy themselves into port authorities globally.
So this is not easy to counter by short term elected zigzagging western politicians and one P-8 patrol here and there. We would need something like a 50 year or 100 year plan ourselves.
There must be a lot of useful cold war lessons learned when the Soviet Union expanded it's area of influence in Africa back then?

[Heathrow Harry]

Well the Aussies and the Kiwi's (and the French of course) do their best but even their voters are starting to rebel.............

[Fareastdriver]

The main result of financial aid to the South Pacific is the increase in property prices in the Gold Coast.

[ORAC]

Not South Seas - but pertinent and related.

https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2018/09/07/how-a-potential-chinese-built-airport-in-greenland-could-be-risky-for-a-vital-us-air-force-base/

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sorcery-and-addiction-to-beijings-cash-may-spell-defeat-for-maldives-abdulla-yameen-5lqvkwzs3

Sorcery and addiction to Beijing’s cash may spell defeat for Maldives’ Abdulla Yameen

For the tourists sipping cocktails and soaking up the sun next to the azure waters of coral-ringed islands, it was just another week in paradise on the Maldives. But away from these luxury resorts, Abdulla Yameen, the country’s autocratic leader, has been waging a brutish election campaign, stifling dissent and jailing enemies, including his own half-brother — and all amid rampant dirty tricks and lurid allegations of black magic rituals.

The significance of next Sunday’s vote spreads far beyond the country of 400,000 people living on 26 atolls dotted across 35,000 square miles of the Indian Ocean. The archipelago is at the centre of a bitter struggle of regional powers.

To the dismay of India, victory for Yameen would consolidate the grip of his foreign backers, China and Saudi Arabia, over the strategic island chain, which sits on key shipping lanes and is a fertile breeding ground for Islamist radicals. Success for the opposition would undermine Beijing’s global maritime ambitions.

Yameen last week praised his deep-pocketed patrons in Beijing and Riyadh for their largesse while criticising the UK and US for “imperialism” for lining up targeted sanctions on regime henchmen if the elections are not deemed free and fair........

Yameen has a single focus for his campaign — a slew of infrastructure projects funded with Chinese loans. He has visited 68 islands in three months to inaugurate 133 projects, in what the opposition claims is a blatant misuse of public funds for electioneering. Indeed, the president has been in such a rush that he has opened several unfinished projects. On one day he inaugurated a new harbour, even though the lagoon had not been deepened to allow boats to dock, and then opened a new hospital, although the building had no doctors and few medical facilities.

The two most expensive projects are an expansion of the airport and last month’s opening of a new road bridge linking it to the capital, Male. Both have been built with huge Chinese loans, prompting fears that the Maldives are falling into a crippling debt trap with Beijing.

To the alarm of India and the US, there are reports that Yameen might grant China a military base in the middle of the Indian Ocean.........

[ShotOne]

Hmm, so China are paying for hospitals ports and airports while we’re threatening sanctions. I wonder which side they’ll choose?

[Mk 1]

Hmm, so China are paying for hospitals ports and airports while we’re threatening sanctions. I wonder which side they’ll choose?
This is following the established pattern the Chinese use in gaining power. Provide aid in the form of loans, the repayments which are certain to be unaffordable. When the repayments are not made the chinese come in and take a long term lease 99 years in the case of a port in SriLanka in excange of the debt being re negotiated or forgiven. China gets its expansion, the 'hosts' get reamed. And the world stands back and watches. Here is Australia we have a crippling drought in the Eastern states - there are many that believe we need to cancel foreign aid and support or farmers. Apart from being economically stupid (the aid eds up assisting our economy on a nett basis), it means we will be effectively ceeding control of near neighbours to China. Dumb, just dumb.

[Lyneham Lad]

Japan holds anti-submarine warfare exercise (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tokyo-sends-first-submarine-on-exercise-in-disputed-waters-xnn03xpwv?shareToken=f91b7eb9e108cbc8ce186861f9c12c7c) near the disputed Scarborough Shoal. China not amused...

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australia-and-us-move-to-counter-china-in-pacific-5l7zgmzbs

Australia and US move to counter China in Pacific

Australia is to reopen a vast Pacific military base used by the US in the Second World War as it seeks to counter Chinese expansionism in the region. The Lombrum naval facility, carved out of jungle on Manus Island, in Papua New Guinea, is to be rebuilt amid fears that China is trying to establish control over key shipping and naval routes.

Australian defence officials have completed a secret study of the base and secured the support of Peter O’Neill, the prime minister of Papua New Guinea, for the project. The Australian government has set aside tens of millions of dollars to redevelop the site to enable it to service large warships, both Australian and American. If the Chinese military were to gain control of Lombrum it would have a foothold in the Pacific barely 600 miles from Australia’s northern tip.

The government in Canberra, aware that the US navy is anxious to have warships permanently based in the region, is believed to have approached the Pentagon for its support on the redevelopment. US warships, including aircraft carriers, already make regular calls to Australian ports but there is no permanent American naval facility in the country. It is expected that Lombrum will be jointly controlled by Australia and Papua New Guinea but will also host the US navy. Three years ago, US navy chiefs admitted that they had begun discussions with the Australian defence force about the possibility of having American warships based in Australia. At its wartime peak, Lombrum hosted 800 ships, four airfields, living quarters for 150,000 troops, fuel depots and a 3,000-bed hospital. It was a critical in the offensive by the Americans against Japan in 1944.

Alarm bells started ringing in Canberra when it emerged that China was funding the development of four ports in Papua New Guinea. Marise Payne, Australia’s new foreign minister, declined to comment on the proposed reactivation of the base but said that Australia supported the island nation’s ambitions “for greater economic growth and development, including on Manus Island”. At a meeting of Pacific leaders last month she suggested that China was making one sided deals with weaker Pacific island nations, some of which are now heavily indebted to Beijing, saying: “Countries will make their own sovereign decisions about arrangements they enter into … but the benchmark that Australia places on this is one of engagement and partnership.”

Michael Shoebridge, director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute and a former defence department official, said using Manus Island “makes good sense”. He added: “It would help give the US a wider operating and support footprint in the Pacific, and give Australian naval forces a location 2,000km away from Darwin and some 1,600km north of Cairns, the two closest Royal Australian Navy bases”.

Australia is all too aware of the vast amounts of money that China has been pouring into Papua New Guinea, which won independence from Australia 43 years ago. The nation will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation Summit (APEC) in November, and President Xi will attend in person, arriving two days early for a state visit. China has paid for and built the multimillion-dollar convention centre for the meeting, as well as new highways in Port Moresby, the capital. Mr Xi is expected to use the summit of Asian and Pacific leaders to press six small Pacific nations — not including Papua New Guinea — to cut diplomatic ties with the self-governing island of Taiwan, which China insists is part of its territory. He is also expected to announce a free-trade agreement between China and Papua New Guinea, and possibly another substantial construction project to rival the one that created the first transport links between Port Moresby and the nation’s remote highlands.

Australia has done what it can to block China’s growing influence elsewhere in the Pacific. This year it stopped China rebuilding the Black Rock military camp on Fiji by itself becoming the sole foreign donor. In June, it prevented Huawei, the vast Chinese telecommunications firm, laying internet cables linking the Solomon Islands, east of Papua New Guinea, with Australia. The fear was that Huawei was seeking to gain access to a broadband hub in Sydney, and that the security of the country’s communications network could be compromised. China Harbour Engineering Company, a state-owned company, has a £23 million deal to upgrade Momote airport on Manus Island.

More than 1,500 US Marines are stationed at a base in Darwin, northern Australia, as part of a six-month rotation programme. This figure will rise to 2,500 by 2020. There are also plans to deploy an extra US Marines expeditionary unit on amphibious ships to the region next year, which will bring another 4,000 US sailors and Marines to the western Pacific.......

[ORAC]

Yeah, right........

https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/1090658403557535746?s=21

[West Coast]

Very thoughtful of them. Love to drop in unexpectedly for a spot of tea.

[Ascend Charlie]

Wouldn't a rescue centre only need helicopters?

[ORAC]

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2188558/cambodias-koh-kong-project-chinese-tourists-or-chinas-military

Is Cambodia’s Koh Kong project for Chinese tourists – or China’s military?

[Gnadenburg]

I paid some government guides to go trekking in the national parks not far from that development. They carried AK's due the poachers and its heavily malarial. At first you'd think it an odd place for a development but I'm noting more mainland tourists off the beaten tracks. And there's hundreds of millions of eager mainland travellers.

3400m? The Chinese like long runways. They'll be hauling out heaps of resources in the aircraft's belly like ivory and seafood.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sydney-wakes-up-to-surprise-visit-by-the-chinese-navy-lvvm375t3

Sydney wakes up to surprise visit by the Chinese navy

Sydney commuters were greeted today by the arresting sight of three large Chinese warships sailing into the city’s harbour. Armed Chinese sailors could be seen patrolling onboard the vessels as they docked at the Garden Island naval base near the city centre.

The visit was requested by Beijing. However, it was unannounced by the Australian government, leading to suggestions that Canberra was embarrassed by the timing of the arrival. Military and political tensions between Australia and China have tightened in recent months, and Scott Morrison, the prime minister, was in the Solomon Islands yesterday on a trip aimed at curbing Beijing’s influence in the Pacific.

About 730 personnel were on board the three ships: the frigate Xuchang, auxiliary replenishment ship Luoma Hu and the landing platform dock Kunlun Shan, which sailed into Sydney harbour soon after 8am.

Mr Morrison gave no reason for failing to announced the visit in advance. It arrived a day ahead of the 30th anniversary Beijing’s Tiananmen Square massacre which has a special resonance for the 40,000 Chinese students who were allowed to remain permanently in Australia after the army open fired on protestors.

The visit was requested by China as the ships completed anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden. Experts questioned why China would send a large fleet to Sydney which was far off their route home from east Africa. The head of Canberra’s National Security College, Rory Medcalf, said that a visit of this calibre was “actually quite something”.

He wrote on Twitter: “Chinese naval visits to Australia have more typically been a lone frigate, not a task group with an amphibious assault ship and 700 personnel. Sydney is hardly a convenient stopover on their way home from the Gulf of Aden. What’s the story here?”

The Chinese ships arrived as Mr Morrison was visiting the Solomon Islands north of Australia in what is widely soon as an effort to counter China’s influence over the small island nation and others in the Pacific.........

[racedo]

China is fully well aware that a naval blockade including Oil is a consideration of the US, especially some of the crazier elements that wants it brought to heel.

China saw what happened in 1930's with Imperial Japan with a US blockade so it knows its history.

Economic threat, followed by continued warships on its door step and open threats and after a while they assume a war footing. Looking at US tactics since WW2 they know that any treaty can be just ripped up by US when it suits it or just not ratified by Congress.

The real danger is escalation.

https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol71/iss2/6/

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-army-blockade/chinas-fear-of-an-american-blockade-idUSKCN1S6140

[megan]

Sydney wakes up to surprise visit by the Chinese navy Australia had HMAS Melbourne visit China as part of the 70th anniversary of the PLA founding, as did Japan and India.

https://en.businesstimes.cn/articles/111079/20190422/indian-australia-warships-joins-china-naval-parade.htm

Pilots being attacked with lasars in the South China Sea.

https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australian-pilots-hit-with-lasers-during-indo-pacific-exercise/

[racedo]

Pilots being attacked with lasars in the South China Sea.

/ (https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australian-pilots-hit-with-lasers-during-indo-pacific-exercise/)

By fishing vessels who probably doing what all fishing vessels do.

[Barksdale Boy]

Fiendishly good cover!

[SASless]

The real danger is escalation.


Appeasement is the greater danger....as the British should well know after that grand pronouncement of "Peace" by that Chamberlin fellow.

You also should acknowledge the Oil and Scrap Metal embargo actions took place AFTER Japan invaded China.

[racedo]

Appeasement is the greater danger....as the British should well know after that grand pronouncement of "Peace" by that Chamberlin fellow.

You also should acknowledge the Oil and Scrap Metal embargo actions took place AFTER Japan invaded China.

Japan invaded China in 1931, but then again Britain, the United States, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Austria and Italy had already done so. All had invaded and established colonial outposts in China from 1901 onwards.

China forced to accept territorial limits when it had zero power to resist, kind of no surprise that when it gains the power it has a different viewpoint. It follows the armed diplomacy viewpoint laid down by others in using might.

[Asturias56]

Appeasement is the greater danger....as the British should well know after that grand pronouncement of "Peace" by that Chamberlin fellow.

You also should acknowledge the Oil and Scrap Metal embargo actions took place AFTER Japan invaded China.

Trouble is that since 1938/39 "Appeasement - avoidance of" has become a slogan rolled out whenever people don't want to compromise and has led to some serious disasters

Think Suez, Iran in the 50's, Vietnam, Afghanistan (every 10 years), 2 Iraq wars, the ongoing Israeli/Palestine issue, Indo-China War in '62 - the list is very very long

You can't convince me all of these would have turned to a bigger disaster if people had compromised - or even in most cases just not bothered to fight

[etudiant]

Japan invaded China in 1931, but then again Britain, the United States, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Austria and Italy had already done so. All had invaded and established colonial outposts in China from 1901 onwards.

China forced to accept territorial limits when it had zero power to resist, kind of no surprise that when it gains the power it has a different viewpoint. It follows the armed diplomacy viewpoint laid down by others in using might.

These facts are not much highlighted by our current day elected officials. Unfortunately, that history ensured that China would developed the ruthless type of leaders that now run the country. Plus even if we now make nice to them, they may not see it as a reason to reciprocate.
A speech on China's posture by Wang Yang, a very senior CCP leader, helps understand the Chinese perspective:
https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/why-did-beijing-suppress-wang-yangs-remarks-on-taiwan/

[SASless]

I had the honor of standing inside the White House Oval Office for a few minutes all by myself and eighteen months later found myself in the Great Hall in Beijing....seat of the Chinese Governing few.

The contrast between the two...and all of the history between the two nations was easy to sense and cause many questions on how we arrived where we have with the Chinese.

I harkened back to the days my government ignored the Chinese as if they did not even exist (publicly anyway) until Nixon ended that.

How does one ignore many hundred millions of people because of their embrace of Communism and it work out well?

I also found it odd how two Allies....Russia and the United States could become the enemies we did after working together to topple Nazi Germany.

Political leaders of all stripes, hues, and affiliations.....cause far more problems then they claim to solve.

Compromise is the answer...but negotiating to reach a compromise that works for both sides and results in both sides fully embracing it and living up to it is a whole different matter.

Compromise must not come in the form of appeasement.....which is what has happened far too many times.

Aggression must have a heavy price to it....and that is where the road to peace gets filled with potholes and obstructions.

[racedo]

These facts are not much highlighted by our current day elected officials. Unfortunately, that history ensured that China would developed the ruthless type of leaders that now run the country. Plus even if we now make nice to them, they may not see it as a reason to reciprocate.
A speech on China's posture by Wang Yang, a very senior CCP leader, helps understand the Chinese perspective:
https://thediplomat.com/2019/05/why-did-beijing-suppress-wang-yangs-remarks-on-taiwan/

Look at it from Chinese Govt POV.

Why would they make nice and trust with countries that have overthrown Libyan leader, attempted to overthrow Syrian, destroyed Iraq / Afghanistan, threatening Iran and Venezula plus others unless they get their own way.

China involvement is Africa is about resources but er so is Western involvement, Western media decry "Chinese Imperialism" who builds schools, roads, hospitals and railways, "Western Imperialism" pays lots of money to leaders / business who then buy apartments in London / Paris and New York then sell lots of weapons but do little to improve the lot of the local population.

Native population look and see who is doing what and not surprisingly West is losing even with 70 years of history behind them.

[SASless]

Racedo....are you saying Qadaffi, Assad, Saddam, The Ayatollas, and those of their ilk should be immune from punitive measures by the Western Powers?

Just where do you draw the line when it comes to mass murder, use of Chemical Weapons, support of Terrorists groups and such conduct?

[Asturias56]

No - of course not - but the question is WHO decides behaviour is unacceptable and WHO enforces it?

To a very large number of people "Western Powers" = USA and the USA has a blemished record on human rights . It supports Saudi Arabia & Israel but criticises Iran and Syria. It propped up a large number of C American killers, The Indonesian Military Govt and Marcos but hates Cuba & Venezuela.............. the list is long and well known

As for enforcement the USA refuses to recognize the International Court of Justice and vetos any UN Resolution that might cause it to change course.

hell, the US won't even surrender it's own military to local legal jurisdiction even when the crimes are appalling and the host country has a free, unbiased legal history of the highest standard ......

The US chooses who are "terrorists" and the US decides they will enforce that judgement - its certainly not the Rule of Law whatever real-politic lies behind it..............

[Lonewolf_50]

No - of course not - but the question is WHO decides behaviour is unacceptable and WHO enforces it?

To a very large number of people "Western Powers" = USA and the USA has a blemished record on human rights . It supports Saudi Arabia & Israel but criticises Iran and Syria. It propped up a large number of C American killers, The Indonesian Military Govt and Marcos but hates Cuba & Venezuela.............. the list is long and well known

As for enforcement the USA refuses to recognize the International Court of Justice and vetos any UN Resolution that might cause it to change course.

hell, the US won't even surrender it's own military to local legal jurisdiction even when the crimes are appalling and the host country has a free, unbiased legal history of the highest standard ......

The US chooses who are "terrorists" and the US decides they will enforce that judgement - its certainly not the Rule of Law whatever real-politic lies behind it.............. Your jealousy, since you can't, is radiating off of the page. China, when they take over the "one super power" as they eventually will (economic power being what it is) will piss down your throat in contempt when you pitch such complaints to them.
Make sure your grandchildren can speak Chinese, and know when to keep a stiff upper lip because the Chinese don't care much for back talk from inferiors. Their current leaders are very clear in their limited tolerance for democratic forms, open criticism or dissent.

[Asturias56]

Wolfie

i think you've just proved my point........... you believe that because you're the big boy on the block you have the right do do whatever you want ...........

I'm sure there are some Brits and French on here who will tell you what happens to great Empires when another , bigger, bully turns up -....................

You learn their language and say "yes Sir"

PS "Their current leaders are very clear in their limited tolerance for democratic forms, open criticism or dissent."

https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/275x183/trump_dc0024b2c706df3ad9258f4dbb6ec3fdbbbd47ca.jpg

[tartare]

If it all goes down I have a feeling it won't end well for China.
I reckon things will reach a point where the United States acts pre-emptively, unilaterally and very swiftly.
Doesn't the OPLAN say it'll take fifteen minutes?
We seem to forget the overwhelming might of the US military - aren't all submarine warheads now HTK capable?
I often look at Asian faces in the street and think how utterly dreadful it would be.
Can you tell who's Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Chinese?
What would happen to all those ex-pats - how would they be treated?

[racedo]

Racedo....are you saying Qadaffi, Assad, Saddam, The Ayatollas, and those of their ilk should be immune from punitive measures by the Western Powers?

Just where do you draw the line when it comes to mass murder, use of Chemical Weapons, support of Terrorists groups and such conduct?

Are these the Western powers who quite happily and openly allow their "intelligence" outfits to do as they want, fund and supply weapons to their Dictators of choice and look the other way when they practice genocide ?

If you wish to have a "Standard" that allows outside parties to interfere in ANY country then that standard applies to EVERY country including the ones that are claiming the moral high ground.

Saudi's are openly destroying Shia villages and killing people in Saudi and have for the last decade but Western Media ignore. Saudi's interfered in Bahrain because the Shia majority population wanted a say in running the country. Saudi's openly practicisng genocide in Yemen, funding terrorism in Syria and killing journalist(s) in Diplomatic missions.

Where is the outrage ? or does this only apply in countrys the West do not like ?

[racedo]

If it all goes down I have a feeling it won't end well for China.
I reckon things will reach a point where the United States acts pre-emptively, unilaterally and very swiftly.
Doesn't the OPLAN say it'll take fifteen minutes?
We seem to forget the overwhelming might of the US military - aren't all submarine warheads now HTK capable?
I often look at Asian faces in the street and think how utterly dreadful it would be.
Can you tell who's Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Chinese?
What would happen to all those ex-pats - how would they be treated?

Roman military might was still great away from home while internally Rome was collapsing.

Might be something to consider when US have zero control over its borders, it has no idea who is there, its elected govt has ceased to function as one side's only idea is to depose someone else and its "known" Federal debts are bigger than the whole economy, while state debt is actually even worse than that.

What happens if US uses a Nuclear weapon and 10,000 people protest in Washington including storming the White House in their anger ?

[Lonewolf_50]

Wolfie
i think you've just proved my point...........
Nope, that's called "failure in reading comprehension"

Your pissing and moaning is all about your own nation's impotence. since you can't, you get upset with others who can, so, I was and am warning you :
Prepare to be more upset, in the very near future.

The Chinese aren't going anywhere any time soon besides further toward center stage.
They are the 800 pound gorilla.

You won't have a similar relationship, special or otherwisde, with the Chinese that you do with your current allies

And while we are at it: I do not find Trumps' rhetoric helpful. I'd prefer the special relationship to heal, not fracture further ... but I'm not the King
You can take your little picture of Trump and stuff it where the sun don't shine, Sunshine.

For tartare:
If it all goes down I have a feeling it won't end well for China.
They are playing in their home field. What won't end well?
I reckon things will reach a point where the United States acts pre-emptively, unilaterally and very swiftly. That's a vague statement: what do you mean by that? Conventional strike, or the big N?
Doesn't the OPLAN say it'll take fifteen minutes? What OPLAN?
We seem to forget the overwhelming might of the US military - aren't all submarine warheads now HTK capable?
"Overwhelming" as compared to what? The USN has shrunk over the last decade.
What's Hit to Kill got to do with your estimate?
I often look at Asian faces in the street and think how utterly dreadful it would be. Can you tell who's Japanese, Korean, Vietnamese, Chinese? I used to be better at guessing the difference between Korean, Japanese and Chinese than I am now, as I've not lived in Asia for over two decades. Some people can tell pretty well.
What would happen to all those ex-pats - how would they be treated? Well, I suspect that's a story without a happy ending if your expectation is that a war starts soon.

[etudiant]

There is a rearrangement in the global power structure now under way.
Imho, the NATO led destruction of basically modern leaders such as Qaddafi and Saddam has simply accelerated the process, bringing fundamentalist thugs to the fore.
Reality is that Taiwan and Korea between them have about half the world's microelectronics capacity, with the US at an eight, lagging Japan's sixth.
Other than that the US still dominated the military and financial links, it is becoming a peripheral player.
I think the Chinese are very pragmatic, when it serves Taiwan to embrace Beijing, they will, despite the touching faith Americans appear to have in Taiwan's desire to be a cats paw.

For now, there is no benefit to China to provoke a real conflict. They have plenty of US money to build global dependencies, thanks to their massive trade surplus. Looking ahead a few decades, they should be hugely dominant, so why rush?

[SASless]

What would happen to all those ex-pats - how would they be treated?



Look to Hong Kong when the Japanese took control from the British.

Or....the Boer's when the British took over South Africa.

[tartare]

HTK = hard target kill - the enhanced ability of a warhead to explode in very close proximity to a hardened military target.
That's critical if you are carrying out a first strike - and before you say they wouldn't do it - note the US has refused to adopt an NFU policy.
In a recent public statement, which I will try and find, a USN officer alluded to an OPLAN that allowed 15 minutes to eliminate all significant fixed assets the Chinese have built up in the South China Sea.
Does that involve a massive conventional strike using cruise missiles and other weapons, or nuclear weapons?
It wasn't clarified, but you can read between the lines.
The USN might have shrunk - but is modern naval warfare purely a function of numbers of vessels?
Think longer range anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedos, drones - and further in the future - directed energy weapons and rail-guns.
I can understand the pessimism of some American posters here about declining US military strength - but I'd argue that right now, in an air-sea battle, on it's own the US Navy could still utterly decimate the PLAN and PLAF should it so choose.
I think there's a pervasive popular media narrative that `Rome is in decline' - the US is losing it's military dominance dangerously fast.
It just doesn't stand up when you look at the facts - the decrease in numbers is offset by an almost exponential increase in lethality.
And the Chinese know that - it's why they are adopting a salami-slicing strategy - no open confrontation.
Just boil the frog, little by little.

EDIT:
Here's the statement I was referring to - from 2016 - Dennis C. Blair, ret US CinC USPACOM and former US DNI (I think he would know what he's talking about, no?)
http://www.chinatopix.com/articles/102517/20161003/destroying-china-militarized-islands-will-take-15-minutes-former.htm
Specifically:

Blair is confident the U.S. will quickly and easily defeat China in any conflict.
His optimism might be anchored on the realities the U.S. Navy can bring to bear enormous firepower against any fleet of the three fleets of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), which operates no combat-capable carrier. PLAN has classified its only carrier, the Liaoning, a training carrier unsuitable for combat.
China's much advertised DF-21 anti ship ballistic missile is also under development and its immature kill chain might prevent it from even acquiring fast moving U.S. Navy carrier strike groups hundreds of kilometers distant. Chinese submarines, while a threat, aren't a serious enough threat to curtail operations of U.S. Navy ships.
But if a conflict were to occur, this will likely be triggered by China.
If there should be war, Blair is confident the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Air Force are capable of rapidly "neutralizing" China's outposts in the South China Sea, which are practically defenseless from a determined attack being isolated and strung out over hundreds of kilometers of sea.
These offensive operations by the Navy and Air Force will only take "probably 10 or 15 minutes' worth of worth of work for U.S. forces."

[SASless]

Now who in their right mind tell potential adversaries what limits they shall place on military action in response to perceived threats?

Come on now....get real!

A Chinese fella has already debunked that notion centuries ago!

[Gnadenburg]

he USN might have shrunk - but is modern naval warfare purely a function of numbers of vessels?

Well I hope their mine warfare capabilities have improved?

Yesterday, flying over the South China Sea near Woody Island, I counted 800 Chinese minelayers.

[SASless]

Rut Roh.....Google Earth shows they have all deployed!

[WingNut60]

If there should be war, Blair is confident the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Air Force are capable of rapidly "neutralizing" China's outposts in the South China Sea, which are practically defenseless from a determined attack being isolated and strung out over hundreds of kilometers of sea.
These offensive operations by the Navy and Air Force will only take "probably 10 or 15 minutes' worth of worth of work for U.S. forces."

If they are really "isolated and strung out" then I would presume that any U.S. resources in the area would be even more so.

[Buster Hyman]

It seems the Chinese Navy in Sydney was a well executed strike to obtain Baby Formula. Well played China, you've won this round.

https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/chinese-warships-pictured-loaded-with-australian-baby-formula-before-departure/news-story/934ce3aaf9df90e18a521d6bee1c90c9


https://cimg8.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/649x487/5130afa35e601b5b766f628deacef0d2_7b92b7226a99dfc327997eda5c3 89daf2f77ccc0.jpg

[Asturias56]

Can't see the PLA (N) taking on the US Navy across the board - pointless and as they'd be massacred

China is more likely to go asymmetric

BUT they would come out fighting for Taiwan - that is an absolute certainty. They could concentrate their forces and the US would have the choice of a very hard fight , with very significant casualties , for a place they've always been in 2 minds about. As the Imperial German Navy as stated inpre WW1 -" we don't have to be big enough to beat the British. We only have to be big enough to do them so much damage that they are then significantly weakened in the face of other large navies".

[SASless]

Odd....the British fought the Argies over the Falklands but politely folded their Tent and walked away from Hong Kong.

Some shall say that was diplomacy on the one hand...and national pride on the other.

What will happen when another Spanish Armada shows up demanding the keys to the Rock?

[ORAC]

Odd....the British fought the Argies over the Falklands but politely folded their Tent and walked away from Hong Kong. Some shall say that was diplomacy on the one hand...and national pride on the other.

What will happen when another Spanish Armada shows up demanding the keys to the Rock?

The majority of Hong Kong, the New Territories was only ever on a 99 year lease - and included all the water supplies and most utilities. So the decision was never If but when, and on what terms. It was a rearguard action.

with Gibraltar the Rock itself is under the treaty of Utrecht, which is perpetuity. The isthmus on which the airport is located is in dispute, certainly no treaty or lease applies. For water and utilities Gibraltar is independent, with power stations, desalination plants and huge tanks excavated under the rock itself.

Spain might conquer it, but has no valid claim or stranglehold as China did over Hong Kong.

[Just This Once...]

Quite a difference between a 99 year lease and a treaty of sovereignty that has been in place for over 300 years.

If the world wanted to reset all boarders and territories back to say 10th April 1713, then there would be little complaining from Great Britain. Not sure the US or a number of European countries would be as keen though.

[racedo]

Quite a difference between a 99 year lease and a treaty of sovereignty that has been in place for over 300 years.

If the world wanted to reset all boarders and territories back to say 10th April 1713, then there would be little complaining from Great Britain. Not sure the US or a number of European countries would be as keen though.

When you use power to demand treaties and rights on other people's land then why should it be a surprise when they use power to demand it back.

[West Coast]

If they are really "isolated and strung out" then I would presume that any U.S. resources in the area would be even more so.

What will sink those islands won’t originate close by.

[havoc]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/south-china-sea-battle-of-saipan-offers-lessons-for-us-and-china/ar-AADUL5l?ocid=spartandhp

IMO interesting analysis

[SASless]

The Japanese tried to use Rabaul and Truk as bases too....but we see how that worked out for them in the pre-Nuke world.

The problem with island bases is they cannot maneuver and can be isolated and by passed.

You reckon the Chinese Navy can hide their surface vessels?

Between the US Submarine force and the USAF B-2 bomber force....an island might be hard to keep in operation to sustain offensive operations.

Unless and until the Chinese can achieve Air and Sea Supremacy over Allied forces....they are on the losing end of the equation.


https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/publication/chinas-maritime-challenge-south-china-sea-options-us-responses

[etudiant]

The Japanese tried to use Rabaul and Truk as bases too....but we see how that worked out for them in the pre-Nuke world.

The problem with island bases is they cannot maneuver and can be isolated and by passed.

You reckon the Chinese Navy can hide their surface vessels?

Between the US Submarine force and the USAF B-2 bomber force....an island might be hard to keep in operation to sustain offensive operations.

Unless and until the Chinese can achieve Air and Sea Supremacy over Allied forces....they are on the losing end of the equation.


https://www.thechicagocouncil.org/publication/chinas-maritime-challenge-south-china-sea-options-us-responses


In WW2, the US had real production capability, able to expand the force even though the average aircraft life was only months.
Now there are 20 B-2s and no more coming, so it is all in the shop window, no inventory to back it up.
It is not obvious who would be on the losing side here.

[Asturias56]

"The problem with island bases is they cannot maneuver and can be isolated and by passed."

the advantage is of course they are hard to sink...................... one bomb/missile/torpedo/mine and you can lose 10% of your total carrier capability

[weemonkey]

"The problem with island bases is they cannot maneuver and can be isolated and by passed."

the advantage is of course they are hard to sink...................... one bomb/missile/torpedo/mine and you can lose 10% of your total carrier capability

what is/are the islands freeboard then ;)

[Asturias56]

I'll let you into a secret - they're actually moored ON THE BOTTOM........... but don't tell the USN....... :oh:

[jolihokistix]

At school in the 50s and 60s we devoured War Picture Library comics, and read literature on the horrors of Nazi concentration camps and Japanese POW camps. In China and Korea they still actively teach such things to their children, using live b&w contemporary film for example, so it is very much alive in their minds.

No, such things should never be forgotten, and even better perhaps, should never be repeated by anyone.

In Japan, though, people look forwards rather than backwards. Has it been the socialist influence in the teaching profession? Perhaps it would be unbearable to stare at the past. There are indeed older people like Abe back in 2013 who like to point out how the Tokyo War Crimes tribunals were not conducted by Japanese people, and therefore not under Japanese law. That much is true. Young people on the other hand mostly do not have a clue about what went on. Therein lies a danger.

The last 70 years have thankfully been largely peaceful, although Japan faces countless intrusions from Russian bombers in the north (much like the UK and north Europe), daily testing by Chinese fighters and 'coastguard' and fishery ships to the south, and from the west those North Korean threats to turn Tokyo into a sea of fire. Japan has not generally risen to such repeated baiting, (to the fury of some) but manfully maintained some kind of neutrality and cool head.

This whole area is full of danger, though. Where are the statesmen who can see the bigger picture? Perhaps it is time for a Pan-Pacific economic zone.
Here there is none of the peace that is enjoyed on the ground and taken for granted by all in Europe.

[SARF]

The whole area is like Europe pre ww2. Unsettled tiffs. A major power rising up demanding its share ..
Alliances that will cause problems rather than solutions..

best we start making more carriers there will be a market for them

[Asturias56]

sorry SARF - the UK can't afford them - in fact I don't think anyone in Europe can afford them

And just look at the lead times - it take years to design and build one even if money is no object - better go buy an SSN from the French.............

[Big Pistons Forever]

A country with deep felt grievances about how they were treated by world powers, an authoritarian leader who rounds up undesirables and puts them in concentration camps, a country well into a huge military expansion and investment program, an aggressive and expansionist foreign policy; combined with an isolationist America and a divided and fractious Europe.

Seems to me we have seen this movie before........

[SASless]

Yet if the US Government gets involved somewhere Europe and so many other folks get their panties in a wad.

It is a lose-lose situation for the Americans to do anything.

Sad thing...only the Chinese and Russians have the throw weight to play a role other than the United States.

Our decades of multiple wars combined with the Obama years budget cuts for Defense caused by sequestration leaves our military short on on war making kit and people.

[Asturias56]

Well Obama was around when both the Kennedy & the Enterprise were ordered -

From a European point of view we don't see much difference on military matters between Presidents TBH ('cept Carter) - they all seem to spend money like water, although on different things, they all seem to love fighting foreign wars many od which they'd have been better staying out of.

And yes the Europeans are a disgrace leaning on the USA for everything

V Interesting article in the Economist this weekend in their annual what-if edition about what would happen if President Trump pulled the US out of NATO in 2020....... not pretty

[SASless]

You overlook the primary role that Congress plays when it comes to the Federal Budget....the President only gets too spend the money Congress appropriates.

The Congress declares War....not the President.

Congress has created the War Powers act that allows for a more flexible authority for the President when it comes to use of military force.

I cited Obama....as a reference to the time period the Sequestration Act took place....and of course his inability to convince Congress to perform its primary task of crafting an Annual Budget for the Federal Government.

Congress is also very happy to continue deficit spending and thereby creating a tremendous Federal Debt that shall one day become. a very real and disastrous problem.

[Just This Once...]

Now there are 20 B-2s and no more coming, so it is all in the shop window, no inventory to back it up.
It is not obvious who would be on the losing side here.

Quite a lot of inventory to back the B-2 fleet at range. USAF stand-off capabilities remain potent and can be delivered by long range aircraft such as the B-52. It is true that no more B-2s are coming but the USAF is looking at 2021 for the first B-21s to replace both the B-1B and B-2 fleets, so the inventory of long-range stealth aircraft will increase considerably.

[West Coast]

From a European point of view we don't see much difference on military matters between Presidents


Foolish to speak to the beliefs and opinions of hundreds of millions as a singular position.

[PeterGee]

sorry SARF - the UK can't afford them - in fact I don't think anyone in Europe can afford them

And just look at the lead times - it take years to design and build one even if money is no object - better go buy an SSN from the French.............

bizarre, are you aware that the UK has carriers. (Well one with one in build)? Buying enough fast jets may be more of an issue. And what the heck is it that makes you think the french are better at building SSNs the the Uk?

[Barksdale Boy]

Spot on, West Coast!

[Asturias56]

Peter

I'm well aware that the UK has (or will have 2 carriers)- but they were planned and ordered 15-+years ago. I don't think that they will ever build another - in fact there is a substantial body of UK military opinion that thinks the two new ones are an expensive mistake and an expensive distraction (please don't start that argument on this thread tho - there's a whole 277 page thread for that).

Only the USA is totally committed to building carriers going forward - the Chinese are (slowly) building proof of concept vessels but are decades away from a carrier fleet. The Russians have given up, the French carrier will be in service for a long time but no plans to add to the number AFAIK and most other nations eg Japan) seem to be happy with ships that can operate helicopters and maybe a handful of VTOL aircraft.

In my view the S China Sea is not a great place for carriers - it's surrounded by land and you can build airfields faster and cheaper than you can build a carrier. If we're talking the Indian Ocean or the Pacific its possible to argue that carriers have real value

[Asturias56]

Foolish to speak to the beliefs and opinions of hundreds of millions as a singular position.

Absolutely! But I don't have their phone numbers to be able to call round and poll them so I had to take a punt based on the people I've met and talked to................... which is what everyone else on here does as far as I can see :ok:

[Asturias56]

"And what the heck is it that makes you think the french are better at building SSNs the the Uk?"

I don't think they are - informed opinion seems to think the UK produces some of the best SSN's around

My point is that the UK has never tried to sell any that I'm aware of whereas the French seem happy to sell them to Brasil (and probably anyone else who has the cash). The Russians also sell SSN's for cash.

So if you want a submarine force relatively quickly head for Paris or Moscow with a large case full of $$$$$$

[West Coast]

Absolutely! But I don't have their phone numbers to be able to call round and poll them so I had to take a punt based on the people I've met and talked to................... which is what everyone else on here does as far as I can see :ok:

You seem unable to steer clear of poorly worded statements.

[Lonewolf_50]

HTK = hard target kill - the enhanced ability of a warhead to explode in very close proximity to a hardened military target. Aha, thanks for that clarification. PS, great post, thanks for the detailed reply.
the US has refused to adopt an NFU policy.
Yes. Without it, deterrence doens't work. (Well, in some schools of thought)
In a recent public statement
If you can find a link that would be spiffy.
The USN might have shrunk - but is modern naval warfare purely a function of numbers of vessels? Think longer range anti-ship cruise missiles, torpedos, drones - and further in the future - directed energy weapons and rail-guns. The latter are not quite mature, but I am keen to see them come on line.
I can understand the pessimism of some American posters here about declining US military strength - but I'd argue that right now, in an air-sea battle, on it's own the US Navy could still utterly decimate the PLAN and PLAF should it so choose. Depends on how it starts, etc. My pessimism has to do with the lack of trainng funds etc ... separate rant, I'll not bore you.
And the Chinese know that - it's why they are adopting a salami-slicing strategy - no open confrontation. Just boil the frog, little by little. Indeed, they have been playing the long game for quite a while. Nicely summarized there.

==

Here's the statement I was referring to - from 2016 - Dennis C. Blair, ret US CinC USPACOM and former US DNI (I think he would know what he's talking about, no?)
Destroying China?s Militarized Islands will take about 15 Minutes, says Former US Spy Chief : Science : Chinatopix (http://www.chinatopix.com/articles/102517/20161003/destroying-china-militarized-islands-will-take-15-minutes-former.htm)
Specifically:
Blair is confident the U.S. will quickly and easily defeat China in any conflict. His optimism might be anchored on the realities the U.S. Navy can bring to bear enormous firepower against any fleet of the three fleets of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), which operates no combat-capable carrier. PLAN has classified its only carrier, the Liaoning, a training carrier unsuitable for combat.
China's much advertised DF-21 anti ship ballistic missile is also under development and its immature kill chain might prevent it from even acquiring fast moving U.S. Navy carrier strike groups hundreds of kilometers distant. Chinese submarines, while a threat, aren't a serious enough threat to curtail operations of U.S. Navy ships. But if a conflict were to occur, this will likely be triggered by China.
If there should be war, Blair is confident the U.S. Navy and the U.S. Air Force are capable of rapidly "neutralizing" China's outposts in the South China Sea, which are practically defenseless from a determined attack being isolated and strung out over hundreds of kilometers of sea. These offensive operations by the Navy and Air Force will only take "probably 10 or 15 minutes' worth of worth of work for U.S. forces."
He would say that, wouldn't he? :}
The Chinese are aware of where their situation has risks, I am sure, but I'll take Blair's assessment for what it is. Thanks for following up on that.
It's been about 3 years since his assessment. Not sure if things have gotten better, worse, or stayed the same since then.
Drone swarms come to mind as another wrinkle in this picture.

[Lonewolf_50]

A country with deep felt grievances about how they were treated by world powers, an authoritarian leader who rounds up undesirables and puts them in concentration camps, a country well into a huge military expansion and investment program, an aggressive and expansionist foreign policy; combined with an isolationist America and a divided and fractious Europe.

Seems to me we have seen this movie before........ Nicely put.
In my view the S China Sea is not a great place for carriers - it's surrounded by land and you can build airfields faster and cheaper than you can build a carrier. If we're talking the Indian Ocean or the Pacific its possible to argue that carriers have real value I see it similarly. Likewise, the south china sea is a good place for diesel boats to operate, complicating the picture even further. Comparatively shallow water, ASW wise.

[Lyneham Lad]

China sends spy ship to monitor Australian war games (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/china-sends-spy-ship-to-monitor-australian-war-games-lqtxg0nzb?shareToken=3631f932bcac9dfd9ceddf0698a7ddc2)

In The Times this afternoon.

From the article:-
A large Chinese navy surveillance ship sailing towards Australia is expected to monitor war games on the Queensland coast involving the US and Britain.

The Australian Defence Force has taken the unusual step of publicly announcing the position of the Type 815G naval intelligence vessel, seen north of Papua New Guinea over the weekend. As well as collecting electronic intelligence, the ship, which has a crew of 250, can track ballistic missiles.

Defence chiefs said that they expected the ship to position itself just outside Australian territorial waters to monitor major military exercises with the US that begin later this week. More than 34,000 military personnel, mostly from Americans and Australians, will take part in the biennial Talisman Sabre war games.

[SASless]

I see it similarly. Likewise, the south china sea is a good place for diesel boats to operate, complicating the picture even further. Comparatively shallow water, ASW wise.

Along with undersea Drones and other covert devices.

[Lyneham Lad]

Article in the WSJ. (https://www.wsj.com/articles/secret-deal-for-chinese-naval-outpost-in-cambodia-raises-u-s-fears-of-beijings-ambitions-11563732482?shareToken=st8a9761385ce748a08073e02ad3757a7f)

Extract:-
China has signed a secret agreement allowing its armed forces to use a Cambodian navy base near here, as Beijing works to boost its ability to project military power around the globe, according to U.S. and allied officials familiar with the matter.

The pact—signed this spring but not disclosed by either side—gives China exclusive rights to part of a Cambodian naval installation on the Gulf of Thailand, not far from a large airport now being constructed by a Chinese company.

Some details of the final deal were unclear, the officials said, but an early draft, seen by U.S. officials, would allow China to use the base for 30 years, with automatic renewals every 10 years after that. China would be able to post military personnel, store weapons and berth warships, according to the draft.

[ORAC]

https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/us-expresses-concern-over-china-vietnam-standoff-and-chinese-oil-gas-activities

https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/whats-in-the-new-china-vietnam-south-china-sea-tensions/

[Lordflasheart]

Along with undersea Drones and other covert devices.

Is this the sort of thing you had in mind, Mr SASless ?

The Nanxun Jiao Crisis and the Dawn of Autonomous Undersea Conflict (http://cimsec.org/the-nanxun-jiao-crisis-and-the-dawn-of-autonomous-undersea-conflict/38999)

..........

[Lordflasheart]

...
Lyneham and ORAC .....

Why does the development of the area East of Dara Sakor seem to be blanked out on GE ?
Has someone been ge-fiddling, so us peasants can't see what's going on ?

.............

[tartare]

In the wake of the Cambodia news, interesting piece here - https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-s-xi-jinping-is-not-a-god-and-the-backlash-against-him-is-building-20190722-p529h3.html

[Lonewolf_50]

In the wake of the Cambodia news, interesting piece here - https://www.smh.com.au/world/asia/china-s-xi-jinping-is-not-a-god-and-the-backlash-against-him-is-building-20190722-p529h3.html That article reads to me like wishful thinking.

[tartare]

I am trying to find Ream Naval Base on Google maps - and can't for the life of me.
It should stand out like pooch's parts.
Anyone (aside from Whiteman or Diego Garcia) got co-ordinates?

[Gnadenburg]

It's there.

But go west along the coast from Ream National Park - Ream beach is a different location.

Near Koh Ta Viev Island. Stands out with a number of patrol boats and torpedo boats/corvettes.

10°30'14.5"N 103°36'29.1"E

[tartare]

Got it.
One jetty, 14 Boats and two helo pads as well.
Those pix clearly pre-date the latest building program.
Sheesh - access to the whole Gulf of Thailand and beyond,

[West Coast]

That article reads to me like wishful thinking.

Is it?


The economic successes that have allowed Xi to shape China internally and externally minus dissent (bar HK of late) are bound to have peaks and valleys, some deeper than others. The expectations of millions of Chinese are driven by their personal successes from the economic juggernaut that is China. Good economic times have also provided for a good diversion from living under a dictatorship. Come the inevitable cyclic market declines (prolly at the same time as ours) and Xi will have to find another way to keep the man in the street occupied. Lucky for him, he has a history lesson to fall back to, a Mao leadership style.

Once you had a taste of the good life, it’s hard to go back. No one wants to turn their Mercedes in for an ox and plowshare. As long as the Chinese economy hums along, all is good. The US will posture about the Chinese military expansion but will do nothing, the symbiotic economic relationship between the two nations is more valuable to the US than Chinese expansion.

IMO, the threat to XI is millions of formally upward mobile, young Chinese dissatisfied with a stagnant or contracting economy.

[Asturias56]

" No one wants to turn their Mercedes in for an ox and plowshare."

have you met Jeremy Corbyn?

[ORAC]

He hasn’t a Mercedes, just an allotment.....

[weemonkey]

Quick wee X-ref to ORACs latest thread.. https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/623814-south-korea-fires-warnig-shots-russian-bomber.html

These joint operations should be a concern for military planners around the globe.

Remember the PRoC mini fleet sailing through the english channel on their way to joint Ex with russian fleet last year....right on our doorstep as it were...

[West Coast]

" No one wants to turn their Mercedes in for an ox and plowshare."

have you met Jeremy Corbyn?

It's my understanding the UK is receiving a BJ and not a JC, so all is well.

[Asturias56]

I don't think 30% of the Tory Party and ++50% of the population agree there West Coast

[Lyneham Lad]

On The Times website this afternoon.

Australia sets up military force in battle with China for Pacific influence (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australia-sets-up-military-force-in-battle-with-china-for-pacific-influence-lxj63k700?shareToken=80f4edb6ea2a35bbd770bfbdbd9f065d)


Extract:-
Australia will create a military force aimed at countering growing Chinese influence in the Pacific, the defence minister announced today.

The unit will include an expeditionary training force to work alongside South Pacific nations such as Fiji, Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea and will provide increased military support for the Pacific’s island states.

Known as the Pacific Support Force, it will aim to strengthen Australia’s role in humanitarian assistance, peacekeeping and security operations. It may also include a dedicated vessel to support greater engagement with regional navies.

[racedo]

It's my understanding the UK is receiving a BJ and not a JC, so all is well.

JC has kept his political convictions throughout his life, a consistency that is rare in politicians hence why media hate him.

BJ will and has always been "open" for persuasion.

[racedo]

On The Times website this afternoon.

Australia sets up military force in battle with China for Pacific influence (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/australia-sets-up-military-force-in-battle-with-china-for-pacific-influence-lxj63k700?shareToken=80f4edb6ea2a35bbd770bfbdbd9f065d)


Extract:-

Good luck with that.

What is Australians rights to Australia ?

[racedo]

Quick wee X-ref to ORACs latest thread.. https://www.pprune.org/military-aviation/623814-south-korea-fires-warnig-shots-russian-bomber.html

These joint operations should be a concern for military planners around the globe.

Remember the PRoC mini fleet sailing through the english channel on their way to joint Ex with russian fleet last year....right on our doorstep as it were...

So you don't support freedom of navigation unless it is in South China Sea ?

[racedo]

IMO, the threat to XI is millions of formally upward mobile, young Chinese dissatisfied with a stagnant or contracting economy.

You think this alone affects China ?

Great Depression allowed Communism to gain significantly in the West.

2008 Recession would have done similar if Central Banks had not magiced up a money tree and spend billions supporting the economy with debt that can never be repaid. Problem is the debt is still there and got worse and you just look at US where Debt is bigger than economy, cutting debt and US is in depression. Watch what happens then.

[West Coast]

You'd be tough to chat with a party. No matter the topic you direct it back to the evils of the US.

[SASless]

Westie....he was on a roll and you interrupted....shame on you!:=

[tartare]

That article reads to me like wishful thinking.

Lone - I'd respectfully suggest spending US$2.79 and reading the 144 page Lowy Paper Xi Jinping - The backlash by the same author, Richard McGregor - it's a short book available on Kindle.
https://www.amazon.com.au/Xi-Jinping-Backlash-Richard-McGregor/dp/1760893048
I would have thought the same as you until recently - the reality is a lot more nuanced.
It's a fascinating and detailed, dispassionate insight into how Xi has created many, many enemies throughout China, who are biding their time.

[Asturias56]

as someone who isn't an automatic flag waver for the USA I'm trying to work out what racedo's politics are - its a bit like the "What airfield" thread

Socialist (yes), Marxist (possibly), Marxist Leninist - probably not

he hasn't trashed any major communist party so unlikely to be a Trot. and he doesn't go on about Workers Paradise so not an Anarchist

He's probably not a russophile like Van

Almost certainly a Guardian reader I suspect but not an overt Green

I'd say left end of the Labour Party for sure

The BIG Question - is ... does he wear socks with his sandals? And how long is his beard??

Thats what I like about Pprune - all human life is here.....................

[tartare]

...and does he ride a recumbent bicycle?

[Barksdale Boy]

Racedo, has it not occurred to you that JC may be consistently wrong?

[West Coast]

...and does he ride a recumbent bicycle?

While wearing sandals?

[Lyneham Lad]

...and does he ride a recumbent bicycle?

While wearing sandals?

Don't we all? ;)

And now back to your regular program(me)!

[racedo]

You'd be tough to chat with a party. No matter the topic you direct it back to the evils of the US.

Hardly, I would buy you a drink and we sit and admire the view.

[racedo]

as someone who isn't an automatic flag waver for the USA I'm trying to work out what racedo's politics are - its a bit like the "What airfield" thread

Socialist (yes), Marxist (possibly), Marxist Leninist - probably not

he hasn't trashed any major communist party so unlikely to be a Trot. and he doesn't go on about Workers Paradise so not an Anarchist

He's probably not a russophile like Van

Almost certainly a Guardian reader I suspect but not an overt Green

I'd say left end of the Labour Party for sure

The BIG Question - is ... does he wear socks with his sandals? And how long is his beard??

Thats what I like about Pprune - all human life is here.....................

Why do you choose to make a thread personal about someone ?

As someone who has opnely supported Trump since 2016 then your assessment kind of falls flat.

[racedo]

Racedo, has it not occurred to you that JC may be consistently wrong?

That he maybe but strange that history is showing his views have been correct on more than one occasion.

Talking to Sinn Fein, while UK Govt doing same in secret while abusing him for doing it. Opposing Iraqi war which everybody now wants to claim they opposed. Opposed Libyan intervention which is still a complete clusterfcuk. Opposing Syrian adventure and UK support for IS/Al Qaeda. Opposes arming Saudi's in Yemen.... how is that working.

Never voted for JC, lived in his constituency in 1980's so knew who he was but there was no election.

As of yet he has never been in Government to damage UK, same as David Cameron in early 2010 and look how that turned out.

[A_Van]

....
Never voted for JC, lived in his constituency in 1980's so knew who he was but there was no election.
...


Thought JC stood for Jesus Christ only :-)

[racedo]

Thought JC stood for Jesus Christ only :-)

Nope. That is what people say when leaders of the main partys make any announcement. Mostly JFC are they in touch with the real world.

[A_Van]

Nope. That is what people say when leaders....

I see. "This common crowd, is much too loud..." ;)

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times today:- (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/us-plans-new-naval-base-in-australia-to-thwart-chinese-tcphn5t5t?shareToken=ae530913da31658f0b437a06ef5c9251)

The United States is planning to bolster its military presence in the Pacific and counter Chinese expansionism by building a naval base in northern Australia.

At least $211 million has been allocated for “new military construction” near Darwin, which already has a base for thousands of US Marines and their equipment.

The planned new facilities, about 25 miles northeast of the city, in an area known as Glyde Point, would be big enough to accommodate amphibious warships and larger vessels such as the helicopter carrier USS Wasp, which recently sailed into Sydney.



Click the link for full article, map & photo.

[Ascend Charlie]

Just up the coast from the Chinese-owned primary port.

[West Coast]

Just up the coast from the Chinese-owned primary port.

At least the Marines won’t have far to travel.

Recognize Oz is in an uncomfortable position. Wonder if/when befriending/investing will give way to the outright influencing of Australia’s affairs that comes with the infusion of Chinese money? That model seems active in smaller pacific island nations. Curious if a scaled up effort would be attempted to dislodge Oz from the US’s sphere of influence to theirs?

[Gnadenburg]

Well that's the strategy isn't it? And its been debated in national newspapers for the last few years. Now it's an almost daily discussion. The odd political grub has been exposed too- taking foreign coin!

China is Australia's biggest trading partner. Though the US is the biggest investor in Australia. The US-Australian alliance is goes back to WW2 and the failure of Britain at Singapore. It's a tight alliance that has become tighter with the quasi-stationing of American troops on Australian soil. And this from a Labor government. People forget this. Our interests in the Pacific have been forged for a long time. Drawing closer is the wrong expression- its the quiet honouring of an emerging threat.

The Brits will be back soon too.

[golder]

In my opinion, the west gave the islands to china. They could have enforced international law of disputed claim. What are they going to do? Nothing, China is the US banker and australia's trading partner. Australia does do small scale military exercises with china, as most would know.

[Lonewolf_50]

Lone - I'd respectfully suggest spending US$2.79 and reading the 144 page Lowy Paper Xi Jinping - The backlash by the same author, Richard McGregor - it's a short book available on Kindle.
https://www.amazon.com.au/Xi-Jinping-Backlash-Richard-McGregor/dp/1760893048 (https://www.amazon.com.au/Xi-Jinping-Backlash-Richard-McGregor/dp/1760893048)
I don't do kindle, but thanks for the suggestion. I might find another way to get a handle on that paper.
I would have thought the same as you until recently - the reality is a lot more nuanced. I believe that. Been following the changes in China mostly through the Economist, and a few other published western sources, so I am aware that I am only getting part of the story. The enemies that he's making within the Chinese power structure seem to me to be a different problem for him than public disquiet over a variety of his and the party's moves. As to Hong Kong, its unique position is precarious, and it seems to me a matter of time and momentum before the good times come to an end. That was my prediction when the turnover happened in '97, and all it took was longer than I expected. (Which is a damned shame, in my view, as it's one of the most unique and interesting, and alive, places I've ever been).
It's a fascinating and detailed, dispassionate insight into how Xi has created many, many enemies throughout China, who are biding their time.

[ORAC]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-30/white-house-eyeing-buildup-of-chinese-forces-on-hong-kong-border

White House Eyeing Chinese Forces Gathered on Hong Kong Border

https://www.pprune.org/jet-blast/624030-till-tanks-roll-2.html#post10532789

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/aug/02/trumps-300bn-china-tariff-threat-sends-markets-into-tailspin

Trump's $300bn China tariff threat sends markets into tailspin

[ORAC]

China's military warns Hong Kong protesters with slick video - Saudi Gazette (http://saudigazette.com.sa/article/573686)

China's military warns Hong Kong protesters with slick video

HONG KONG — China's military has released a slick propaganda video showing a drill of armed troops quelling a protest in Hong Kong, as its commander for the city voiced determination to maintain law and order following two months of pro-democracy rallies. The double-barrel signals on Wednesday were the strongest public interventions from China's armed forces into the crisis, which has seen masses of people take to the global financial hub's streets to demand more freedoms.

The video, posted online by the People's Liberation Army's (PLA's) garrison in Hong Kong, shows tanks, helicopters, rocket launchers and heavily armed troops in action across various locations of the semi-autonomous Chinese city. The three-minute clip also specifically features an "anti-riot" drill in which soldiers with assault rifles, armored personnel carriers and water cannons disperse a crowd of protesters in Hong Kong.

"All consequences are at your own risk," a soldier yells into a loudspeaker at the start of the drill in Cantonese, the language spoken in Hong Kong rather than the Mandarin of mainland China. PLA troops are then seen wearing helmets, carrying long shields, marching with batons, laying out barbed-wire barricades and pointing the rifles. An officer is also filmed holding a red flag that reads: "Warning, stop charging or we use force". The flag has the same words as ones that Hong Kong's police have used when confronting the pro-democracy protesters.

The drill ends with armed troops escorting protesters, who have their arms tied behind their backs, to areas designated by banners as "detention points"......

https://youtu.be/gvilmqJa8Yg

[Fareastdriver]

At least the PLA has had some training in maintaining public order.

In Tiananmen Square they had had demonstrations of that size before but they were orchestrated by the Party. At the end of the day someone would clap theirs hands and everybody went home.

That time they didn't and the police did not know what to do. After a couple of days of trying they gave up and called in the PLA.

The PLA had no experience so they did not know what to do either. Their problem was to clear several thousand people out of the Square.....A couple of battalions of infantry and a squadron of tanks should do it.

That's what they did and the results everybody knows.

Unlikely to happen again unless the HK demonstrators are as pig headed as those in Beijing. Then they had the support of several senior members of the Politburo and could have had their voice heard at the highest level but they persevered in trying to change the entire People's Republic's constitution overnight. With a state visit by Gorbachev due within days the Square had to be cleared, and so it was.

[Lyneham Lad]

In the WSJ today.


WASHINGTON—The Trump administration has decided to sell billions of dollars’ worth of F-16V fighter jets to Taiwan, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move likely to anger Beijing at a sensitive point in U.S.-China relations (https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-renews-vow-to-retaliate-against-planned-u-s-tariffs-11565874667?mod=article_inline).

The State Department has begun informing staffers on congressional committees but has yet to formally notify Congress of the possible sale. A State Department official declined to comment on the terms of a potential sale before official congressional notification, in keeping with department policy.

Republican and Democratic lawmakers expressed support for the sale. Reps. Eliot Engel (D., N.Y.) and Michael McCaul (R., Texas), the chairman and ranking member on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said in a joint statement the move “sends a strong message about the U.S. commitment to security and democracy in the Indo-Pacific.”

Messrs. Engel and McCaul said the possible sale, which they predicted would receive strong congressional backing, would both bolster U.S.-Taiwan ties and deter interference by Beijing.

Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch (R., Idaho) said: “These fighters are critical to improving Taiwan’s ability to defend its sovereign airspace, which is under increasing pressure from the People’s Republic of China.”

The move follows the July approval of up to $2 billion in Abrams tanks for Taiwan (https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-plans-more-than-2-billion-in-weapons-sales-to-taiwan-angering-beijing-11559870443?mod=article_inline)—a development that drew swift criticism from Beijing.

China sees Taiwan as a breakaway province and has never renounced the use of force to bring the self-ruled island under its control. The U.S. is the main arms supplier to Taiwan, but has formal diplomatic ties with Beijing rather than with Taipei, in keeping with Beijing’s “One China” policy.

Taiwanese officials continually emphasize their close relationship with the U.S., and expressed cautious optimism about the possible F-16 purchase.

But the sale of the fighter jets is likely to further infuriate Beijing at a time when tensions are already running high over fragile trade talks and mounting unrest in Hong Kong.

President Trump warned Beijing this week (https://www.wsj.com/articles/washington-offers-conflicting-messages-on-hong-kong-unrest-amid-u-s-china-trade-talks-11565802045?mod=article_inline) that it must respond humanely to the protests in Hong Kong if it wants to strike a trade deal with Washington. Face-to-face trade negotiations are set to resume in September.

As with Taiwan, Beijing views Hong Kong as a domestic matter and has rejected international criticism of the crisis in the city as an attempt to undermine Chinese sovereignty.

[Asturias56]

TBH Hong Kong IS an internal matter - it's part of the PRC and has been since the Brits handed back the island and the area south of Boundary Street in the '90's

Taiwan is different as it's never been part of the People's Republic - even tho both sides claim it's still one country.................

[Lyneham Lad]

In the WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-pulls-out-of-information-sharing-pact-with-japan-11566467522?shareToken=st6cf97c9832804b90bb6210873a249499):-

South Korea said it would withdraw from a pact with Japan to share classified military intelligence, weakening the U.S. alliance network in East Asia and exacerbating tensions that have flared between Seoul and Tokyo in recent weeks over trade and wartime history.

Since 2016, Japan and South Korea have had a direct channel of communication for sensitive military information such as details of North Korean missile launches and troop movements, as well as intelligence on other regional powers such as China and Russia.

The arrangement, advocated by the U.S. to bolster regional security, was scheduled soon to renew automatically for another year. But on Thursday, South Korea said it was scrapping the deal, saying Japan had arbitrarily accused Seoul of being a national security concern.

The decision stems from a move by Japan in July to tighten export controls (https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-restricts-exports-to-south-korea-as-bilateral-ties-fray-11561953854?mod=article_inline)on three materials crucial for South Korean companies to produce semiconductors and displays, and a subsequent move to revoke Seoul’s preferential-trading-partner status (https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-ratchets-up-trade-dispute-with-south-korea-11564712440?mod=article_inline). Tokyo cited concerns that Seoul was not doing enough to ensure products from Japan couldn’t be shipped to third countries that represent a security risk.

South Korea condemned the decision and said it had put the military intelligence-sharing agreement in doubt because of the breakdown in trust between each side. The pullout comes despite requests from Washington and Tokyo to remain in the deal.

Japan’s government had no immediate reaction to the decision.

Thursday’s announcement comes after weeks of bickering between Tokyo and Seoul (https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korea-kicks-japan-off-list-of-favored-trading-partners-11565606307?mod=article_inline)officials.

[Lyneham Lad]

From an article on the BBC News website. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-49423590)

US pre-eminence in the Pacific is no more.

For a long time experts have been speaking about China's rapid military modernisation referring to it as "a rising power".

But this analysis may be out of date. China is not so much a rising power; it has risen; and in many ways it now challenges the US across a number of military domains.

This is the conclusion of a new report from the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney in Australia.

It warns that US defence strategy in the Indo-Pacific region "is in the throes of an unprecedented crisis" and that Washington might struggle to defend its allies against China.

"America no longer enjoys military primacy in the Indo-Pacific", it notes, "and its capacity to uphold a favourable balance of power is increasingly uncertain."

The report points to Beijing's extraordinary arsenal of missiles that threaten the key bases of the US and its allies. These installations, it asserts, "could be rendered useless by precision strikes in the opening hours of a conflict".

[CoodaShooda]

Ah, the US Studies Centre.

A cabal of left leaning academics, all of whom predicted that Hilary Clinton would comfortably win the Presidential election. Needless to say they are not fans of the current US Administration.

Interesting that they release a report suggesting the US cannot be relied upon as an ally at the same time the Australian government is pressuring our universities to walk away from the Chinese funded and resourced Confucius Centres that they currently accommodate.

[Lookleft]

LaTrobe Uni in Australia is also firmly of the belief that China is dominant over the US. The Australian Government is correct in reducing the influence the Chinese Government has in Australia. The article quoted seems to ignore the fact that the US also has a significant first strike capability. If the Chinese think that they can simply wipe out the Pacific component of the US military and extend the 9 dash line to LA then they need to revisit the lessons of December 1941.

[rattman]

LaTrobe Uni in Australia is also firmly of the belief that China is dominant over the US. The Australian Government is correct in reducing the influence the Chinese Government has in Australia. The article quoted seems to ignore the fact that the US also has a significant first strike capability. If the Chinese think that they can simply wipe out the Pacific component of the US military and extend the 9 dash line to LA then they need to revisit the lessons of December 1941.


Maybe if the poliies on both sides of the of politics really cared they would stop taking donations from the chinese govt agents. Nah they have to line their own pockets first

[Lyneham Lad]

Article on the WSJ (https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-to-beef-up-military-with-money-for-aircraft-carrier-u-s-jet-fighters-11567141391?shareToken=st07efe5498a80442a94c024787ba05d87) expanding on the info about updating the Izumo and the F-35B purchase.

TOKYO—Japan plans to start converting a destroyer next year into its first post-World War II aircraft carrier and make its first payment for Lockheed Martin Corp. F-35B jet fighters that can take off from the ship.

The Defense Ministry on Friday included those steps in its budget request for the fiscal year starting April 2020, which calls for increasing defense spending for an eighth successive year to a new high.

Under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Japan has steadily raised defense spending, citing rising security challenges from regional powers such as China and North Korea. President Trump has also pressured Japan to spend more on U.S. military hardware.

The aircraft carrier (https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-unveils-plan-for-first-aircraft-carrier-since-world-war-ii-11544524822?mod=article_inline) and F-35B jet fighters (https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-to-buy-105-more-f-35-fighters-11545098435?mod=article_inline)are intended to beef up Japan’s ability to defend its southern island chain and project power further from its shores.

The Defense Ministry is seeking $50.3 billion for the next fiscal year, up 1.2% from expected spending in the current year and similar to increases in recent years. Defense budget requests are typically approved by the cabinet in December with minor changes.

While Japan’s military spending has been rising, it has remained around 1% of the size of its economy, compared with around 2% for China and 3% for the U.S. relative to the size of their much-larger economies.


The budget includes funds to enable the flight deck of the flat-top destroyer Izumo to withstand the intense direct heat from the engines of vertical takeoff and landing jet fighters. The full retrofit of the Izumo may extend beyond next year. Japan also plans to convert another flat-top destroyer to become a second aircraft carrier.

The development of aircraft carriers is a centerpiece of a new midterm defense plan issued by Japan last year. Japan’s defense planners see it as a way to provide firepower to defend a string of islands that extend several hundred miles from Japan’s mainland to near Taiwan.


Their primary concern is a small cluster of uninhabited islands in the chain claimed by China. Chinese coast guard vessels regularly patrol waters close to the islands, which Japan calls the Senkakus (https://www.kaiho.mlit.go.jp/mission/senkaku/data_R_08.pdf?mod=article_inline)and China refers to as the Diaoyu. Chinese ships have entered the territorial waters around the islands every month this year, according to Japanese coast guard data, including on two days so far in August.
“I think we are going to conduct a variety of joint drills and other things with the U.S.,” Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya said at a press conference last week.

On a recent visit to Tokyo, the commander of the U.S. Marine Corps, Lt. Gen. David Berger, said he wanted F-35Bs from Japan and the U.S. to be able to use each other’s ships.

Interoperability gives military allies an edge during a crisis, when assets such as ships and planes need to be deployed rapidly. A Marine Corps F-35B squadron is scheduled to be deployed on a British aircraft carrier in 2021.

Joint F-35B drills with the U.S. would also enable Japan to more quickly get used to aircraft carrier operations, said Toshimichi Nagaiwa, a former general in Japan’s air force.

“It would generate considerable merits for both sides,” he said.

Japan’s budget request for next year includes $800 million for six F-35Bs to be acquired by 2025. Tokyo said last year it would order around 40 of the aircraft as part of a total order for 147 F-35 fighters, making Japan the largest international customer for the plane.

In another move to defend Japan’s south, the Defense Ministry earmarked funds to create an electromagnetic warfare base on the island of Kyushu that can disrupt an enemy’s radar or other signals.

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-company-leases-island-in-the-solomons-j7mtcjh2fChinese company leases island in the SolomonsBeijing has extended its influence and control over the approaches to Australia by leasing a Pacific island from the impoverished Solomon Islands. The deal to rent the island of Tulagi to a conglomerate closely linked to the Chinese government has raised concerns that Beijing will establish a military foothold about 1,000 miles from Australia’s northeast coast.

Details of the deal have emerged just days after the Solomons switched diplomatic allegiance to Beijing from Taiwan, which China regards as a renegade province. Under a “strategic co-operation agreement” China’s Sam Enterprise Group will develop the island and those near by as a special economic zone. The contract, seen by The Times, gives Sam, which described itself as a partner of the state-owned China National Chemical Corporation, exclusive development rights over Tulagi and its immediate islets.

The move has come as a surprise to many of the 1,000 residents on the three and a half mile long island, which lies ten miles to the north of the Solomons’ capital, Honiara on the neighbouring island of Guadalcanal.

Guadalcanal was the site of one of the bloodiest Pacific battles of the Second World War as allied forces tried to repulse a Japanese advance towards Australia and New Zealand. Tulagi Island has long been of strategic and military significance and was Britain’s headquarters when the Solomons were declared a British protectorate in 1893. Japanese forces invaded the Solomon Islands in May 1942 in a move intended to disrupt crucial supply lines between the US and Australia and New Zealand. Imperial Japan then built naval refuelling, communications, and seaplane reconnaissance bases on the islands.

“I think Australia and other western parties will be concerned anytime they hear of a Chinese entity sniffing around a long-term lease of a potentially strategic asset in the Pacific,” Jonathan Pryke, director of the Pacific islands programme at Sydney’s Lowy Institute, said. “The great fear is that over time China will leverage one of these agreements to gradually transform it into some kind of military facility,” he told The Times.

Peter Jennings, executive director of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said China was seeking control over all approaches to the Asian mainland, potentially disrupting the ability of the US to support its allies in Asia-Pacific. “Our government would be worried by developments in the Solomon Islands. That’s not to say they can’t be reversed but they’re running counter to Australia’s interests,” he told the Australian Financial Review.

As alarm mounted over the deal, the Solomons’ official who signed it, Stanley Manetiva, the central province premier, appeared to cast doubt on his commitment to it. He told Radio New Zealand the agreement was not legally binding and the Chinese company would have to comply with local laws and respect landowner rights on Tulagi. “To be honest here, leasing Tulagi will not be possible,” he said.

[Fareastdriver]

When I was there almost all of the businesses were run by Taiwanese Chinese. With Mainland China now the official China I can see most of them hot-footing it to either Taiwan or Australia.
With them will go most of the employment and I don't think the returns will be what Mainland Chinese would expect so they wont take up the slack.

[racedo]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-company-leases-island-in-the-solomons-j7mtcjh2fChinese company leases island in the SolomonsBeijing has extended its influence and control over the approaches to Australia by leasing a Pacific island from the impoverished Solomon Islands. The deal to rent the island of Tulagi to a conglomerate closely linked to the Chinese government has raised concerns that Beijing will establish a military foothold about 1,000 miles from Australia’s northeast coast.
.

Yup how dare they............. wonder who they got that idea from ? Cypriots / Diego Garcians / Cubans.

[West Coast]

Yup how dare they............. wonder who they got that idea from ? Cypriots / Diego Garcians / Cubans.

Stop with the drama. The article and the replies here speak to increased influence and not some nefarious action that you can attempt to use in your anti western agenda.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/25/solomons-government-vetoes-chinese-attempt-to-lease-an-islandSolomons' government vetoes Chinese attempt to lease an islandA Chinese company’s attempt to lease an entire island in the Solomon Islands (https://www.theguardian.com/world/solomonislands)was unlawful and will not be allowed to go ahead, the Pacific archipelago’s government has announced.

The deal between the Solomons’ Central Province and the state-owned China (https://www.theguardian.com/world/china)Sam Group was “unlawful, unenforceable and must be terminated with immediate effect”, prime minister Manasseh Sogavare’s office said in a statement.

It said the provincial government did not have the power to negotiate the agreement for Tulagi island, which has the type of deep-water harbour coveted by the military. In addition, it said China Sam did not have foreign investor status in the Solomons and no deal could be finalised without the approval of attorney-general John Muria.........

[AndySmith]

An interesting article in the Telegraph today regarding a possible new chinese stand off weapon... a new capability from it's "super" secret missile.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/19/accidental-espionage-publishing-error-may-have-revealed-chinas/

[beardy]

An interesting article in the Telegraph today regarding a possible new chinese stand off weapon... a new capability from it's "super" secret missile.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/19/accidental-espionage-publishing-error-may-have-revealed-chinas/
This interesting article is behind a paywall.

[ORAC]

Beardy, see here....

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/chinas-h-6-bombers-just-got-even-deadlier-against-americas-navy-97607

[tartare]

Oh I would just loooove to see what the Excited States would do if China used one of those things to sink a Nimitz Class.
It'd be all on for young and old...

[ORAC]

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/military/embarrassing-mistake-chinese-magazine-accidentally-reveals-new-top-secret-weapon/news-story/99967f182da868ba6321d559cde96e62


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/649x487/image_52aaa18e102227b0c85c4977ecbc898e3143c73f.jpeg

[Asturias56]

Always a bit sceptical of "accidental" releases of pictures like this - and there doesn't seem much ground clearance looking at the position of the undercarriage

[Fareastdriver]

The H6s I have seen have always been immaculate and always easy to find as they are always in the same spot. Their ground equipment in a similar state and the pristine concrete aprons they occupy haven't a tyre scuff mark in sight.

[Asturias56]

Does that mean you think they never move?

I was once reamed out big-time for taking at picture at Mt Pleasant of the tanker sitting outside the arrivals "terminal" - which was in exactly the same spot on every edition of Goggle Earth I could find.

[Lyneham Lad]

On Flight Global (https://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/pictures-chinas-newest-aircraft-carrier-docks-at-462449/):-

China’s second aircraft carrier has docked at Yulin Naval base at the southern tip of Hainan Island, amid media speculation that it will soon be commissioned into Peoples’ Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) service. Satellite images provided by Maxar Technologies show the Type-001A carrier at pier side. Seven Shenyang J-15 fighters are visible on the deck, as are four helicopters. The rotorcraft comprise what appears to be a trio of Changhe Z-18s and a single Harbin Z-9.
The carrier recently sailed from the Dalian shipyard to Hainan Island via the Taiwan Strait.

https://newsassets.cirium.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=79545

Image of China's Type-001A shot by Maxar Technologies' WorldView-1 satellite.
Satellite image ©2019 Maxar Technologies.

When commissioned (and named) the Type-001A will become China’s second operational carrier after Liaoning, which was developed from the hulk of the Varyag, a Kuznetsov-class carrier that the Soviet Union never completed owing to the end of the Cold War. The Type-001A represents a major milestone for Beijing as it is the country’s first locally designed and built aircraft carrier. Though it resembles Liaoning, with the same conventional powerplant, reports suggest it can carry 44 aircraft, compared with 36 for Liaoning. The vessel also has updated radars and a modernised bridge.

Both Liaoning and Type-001A use a ski-jump to launch fixed-wing aircraft. This limits payload and precludes operations of support aircraft for missions such as airborne early warning & control (AEW&C) and antisubmarine warfare.

https://newsassets.cirium.com/assets/getasset.aspx?itemid=79546

Yulin Naval Base is at the Southern tip of Hainan Island. Satellite image ©2019 Maxar Technologies.

China’s third carrier, the Type-002, will be equipped with electromagnetic aircraft launch and recovery systems (EMALS), allowing it to operate a similar mix of fixed wing aircraft as found on US Navy aircraft carriers. In May, an artist's impression on social media offered more details about the Xian KJ-600, an AEW&C type resembling the Northrop Grumman E-2 Hawkeye AEW&C aircraft.
The impressions suggest that the twin-turboprop KJ-600 will also have a carrier on-board delivery (COD) variant similar to the C-2 Greyhound, and an anti-submarine warfare variant.

[ORAC]

https://www.politico.eu/article/norway-kirkenes-china-influence-arctic-shipping-opportunity/Norway’s ‘northernmost Chinatown’ eyes Arctic opportunity

[Asturias56]

Jeez - Kirkenes - a one reindeer town if ever there was one...................

But the Russians can keep a close eye on any Chinese goings on there for us - they get a bit prickly about activity up there.

[Lyneham Lad]

In The Times today (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britains-newest-warships-at-risk-from-chinese-vmdgdrvbq?shareToken=120dba9be99d93bf1786ecbe23883d67):-

Snip from article.
Experts have warned that China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/china) is advancing rapidly with anti-ship ballistic missile technology and sophisticated tracking capabilities that could put British aircraft carriers (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rocket-man-blasts-off-from-royal-navys-new-aircraft-carrier-tsn86s9dg) at greater risk.

Beijing has developed both intermediate and long-range ballistic “carrier killer” missiles and is thought to have conducted a test of at least one variant in the South China Sea in the past six months.

Improvements in China’s surveillance and reconnaissance capability – spanning satellites, drones and aircraft – also mean its ability to hit a moving target on water is strengthening, according to analysts.

The developments are likely to fuel concerns about the vulnerability of Britain’s two aircraft carriers in parts of the Pacific in the immediate term and further afield in future. There are fears other countries could also adopt the technology.

Beijing is thought to have recently tested on a moving target at sea the intermediate-range Dong Feng 21D anti-ship ballistic missile, which can travel a distance of 1,500km (932 miles). There has also been speculation that an even longer-range Chinese anti-ship variant of a ballistic missile called the Dong Feng 26, which has a reported range of 3,500km (2,175 miles), has been tested.



Click the link for full article and diagram.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1201773060715634694

[etudiant]

https://twitter.com/adam_tooze/status/1201773060715634694

The Chinese are not stupid and they have invested generously in the needed dredging and construction gear, so any flaws are more likely the result of rushed construction than material deficiencies.
Moreover, these bases have just been constructed, so all the resources to repair or extend are at hand. The tweet smacks of wishful thinking by a non Chinese observer.

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/covertshores/status/1206203393167036417

[Lyneham Lad]

Beijing commissions its second aircraft carrier (https://www.flightglobal.com/beijing-boosts-its-carrier-power-with-shandong-commissioning/135830.article)Article & photos on Flight Global.
​​​​​​​

[Asturias56]

I'll bet his arm was sore after shaking hands with this lot...


https://cimg9.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/780x520/66018_8cdcd43004dd1f633a051c_80509_6b057fc3f10d173261b1cd0e7 f45f1db0446c67b.jpg

[Lyneham Lad]

A CNN report. (https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/27/politics/chinese-laser-us-aircraft/)

The US Navy said Thursday that a Chinese military warship fired a military grade laser at US Navy P-8 surveillance aircraft last week while it was flying over the Pacific Ocean, an action that the US Navy called "unsafe and unprofessional."
The People's Republic of China "navy destroyer's actions were unsafe and unprofessional," US Pacific Fleet said in a statement Thursday.
"Weapons-grade lasers could potentially cause serious harm to aircrew and mariners, as well as ship and aircraft systems," the statement added.


Military-grade laser beams, occasionally known as "dazzlers," omit a powerful beam of light that can travel great distances and be used to illuminate aircraft cockpits, temporarily blinding pilots.
Defense officials told CNN that a formal diplomatic protests known as a démarche is expected to be issued.

The incident comes amid ongoing tensions (https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/18/asia/south-china-sea-intl-hnk/index.html) between the US and Chinese militaries.
The Pentagon has repeatedly said that China represents an increasingly serious threat to regional security, saying that major Chinese investments in its military are aimed at achieving regional dominance.
"Over time, we have watched them seize and militarize islands in the South China Sea, and rapidly modernize their armed forces, while seeking to use emerging technologies to alter the landscape of power and reshape the world in their favor ... and often at the expense of others," US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said earlier this month.


The US has similarly issued such diplomatic protests in the past due to what the US said was Chinese military forces using lasers against US aircraft.
One such incident took place in the East African nation of Djibouti where both the US and China maintain military bases. US officials in 2018 accused Chinese forces stationed in Djibouti of injuring US pilots (https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/03/politics/chinese-lasers-us-military-pilots-africa/index.html) with a laser that was fired at a US C-130J aircraft.

[Lyneham Lad]

Article published 3rd March on Reuters.

'Provocative' China pressures Taiwan with fighters, fake news amid virus outbreak (https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-taiwan-china/provocative-china-pressures-taiwan-with-fighters-fake-news-amid-virus-outbreak-idUKKBN20Q09N?utm_medium=40digest.intl.rank&utm_source=email&utm_content=&utm_campaign=campaign)

[Prawn2king4]

https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1182886.shtml

[Asturias56]

That's a very good illustration of the issue here - the Chinese think the whole SCS is their territorial waters

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/alexluck9/status/1249209897746661376?s=21

[weemonkey]

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3912275

Time to shift things up a couple of gears.

Where art though Oh HMSQE/F35B ?

[NutLoose]

I wonder how they are going to pay for this when the world looks set to reclaim its manufacturing capabilities back from China..

[Asturias56]

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3912275

Time to shift things up a couple of gears.

Where art though Oh HMSQE/F35B ?

Are you seriously suggesting the UK should get into a war, even an economic war, with China???? It would be very embarrassing to put it mildly............. 1 small carrier, a couple of T-45's against the PLA (N) - 20 destroyers plus 50 frigates for a start

[Asturias56]

I wonder how they are going to pay for this when the world looks set to reclaim its manufacturing capabilities back from China..


Are they? Do you really think people won't go to the lowest cost provider as we've always done the moment the world opens up again??? Countries can't afford to subsidise vast swathes of manufacturing as they did 100 years ago

[NutLoose]

I think a lot will change, penicillin for example, 40% of the US supply comes from China. Anything major and essential will move, It has started

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-plans-to-offer-incentives-to-companies-moving-from-china/articleshow/69938182.cms?from=mdr
https://www.businessleader.co.uk/japan-announces-incentives-for-companies-to-move-production-out-of-china/82975/

[etudiant]

Are they? Do you really think people won't go to the lowest cost provider as we've always done the moment the world opens up again??? Countries can't afford to subsidise vast swathes of manufacturing as they did 100 years ago
Trump's tariff wall shifts the low cost sourcing calculation. Moreover, it seems likely to have much more international appeal as the full cost of dependence on a single foreign source becomes clearer.

[JokersWildMk.2]

But the use of electromagnetic weapons, including low-energy laser devices, could be viable, as they can temporarily paralyze US ships' weapon and control systems without visible conflict but can send a strong warning, according to Song.

Would this tactic not be equally effective the other way around? Seems a rather short-sighted comment to be making IMO.

[weemonkey]

Are you seriously suggesting the UK should get into a war, even an economic war, with China???? It would be very embarrassing to put it mildly............. 1 small carrier, a couple of T-45's against the PLA (N) - 20 destroyers plus 50 frigates for a start

As both myself and spouse are in the "recovery" phase of the Wuhan pestilence trust me when I say that the UK giving the CCP a reminder of the term "free navigation" is the very LEAST of options that are going through my mind at present.

The world has to stand up to this regime, this regime that has unleashed such a catastrophic disease upon the world.

The UK, the mother of all democracies, we should be in the forefront of RETRIBUTION.

Or are you just another Kier Starmer/ Bill Gates. [ dodgy knight of the realm, multi millionaire and NOT a Dr] ?

[Toadstool]

As both myself and spouse are in the "recovery" phase of the Wuhan pestilence trust me when I say that the UK giving the CCP a reminder of the term "free navigation" is the very LEAST of options that are going through my mind at present.

The world has to stand up to this regime, this regime that has unleashed such a catastrophic disease upon the world.

The UK, the mother of all democracies, we should be in the forefront of RETRIBUTION.

Or are you just another Kier Starmer/ Bill Gates. [ dodgy knight of the realm, multi millionaire and NOT a Dr] ?

WM

firstly, I hope you and your spouse recover fully from this awful virus. My Ex wife is a nurse and caught this while treating people at hospital. She tells me that it was the most vile despicable thing that she has ever gone through. She rang the ambulance at one point due to difficulties in breathing. Triage was that extreme that they told her she didn't need an ambulance because she could say a sentence without coughing or fainting so wasn't a priority.

I am wondering what you mean by standing up to China? What retribution are you thinking? Do you honestly think that China deliberately unleashed this upon the world while killing its own citizens; a biological MAD policy? Personally I don't think this is the case.

Should you wish retribution, there are two options, IMHO, that could be used. Firstly we could hit them economically. This would involve a whole-world effort and agreement to hit China where it hurts and economically isolate China. Bring back all factories. Don't buy Chinese goods. Stop all trade whatsoever. Expel Chinese workers etc. This may bring China to the table with the idea of claiming some sort of compensation tied with guarantees that they stop whatever practices we wish for them to stop. On the other hand, with their backs to the wall, the Chinese may push back militarily or financially. Call in all debts etc.
We could hit them militarily but this is something that I would not suggest. We would lose more than we would hope to gain.

Is there any chance, once you get better, that you could give us an idea of what your idea of Retribution is please?

[racedo]

It appears some people are keen on revenge so they can add to the total numbers of people dead.

Blaming China for this overlooks who should be blamed for other viruses that cut swathes through mankind at different time from different countrys.

Bearing in mind it is clear that Western Intelligence services had picked up on this in early November, well before even the Chinese knew it was an outbreak and did nothing then who is at fault ? Israeli's quite open they were warned along with NATO allies then yet nobody did anything.

China is not responsible for many countrys health services being underresourced and lacking equipment, that is a home grown decision. Likewise China is not responsible for any countrys, even as the outbreak developing, taking cockeyed decisions like herd immunity, not buying PPE and many other actions until it was already too late.

It has been China and Russia who have been offering assistance to many countries while their supposed earstwhile allies have done nothing, Italy was left to fend for itself as was Spain but are they not a key NATO ally ?

Even NATO shrills, when Russian personnel arrived, did another of their Integrity Iniative propoganda pieces to claim Russian help was not right equipment, untrained people and just a smokescreen. Strange that it was the Italians from Premier down who openly called the shrills Liars and grateful of the assistance.

Ireland had Chinese ambasssador make an open offer of help and Aer Lingus sent 60 flights to bring the offered equioment home, seems Ireland didn't trust others shipping it, their view seems to be borne out by French / German claims of equipment going missing. Even Peru obtaining PPE this weekend is refusing to say how delivered in case someone steps in to take its order.

The idea that UK can take back its manufacturing is laughable, the "Key" food industry at the lowest level is people by immigrants paid minimum / living wage, UK is importing people to harvest produce because locals not able to do it.

If people want to ask questions of Governments then starting with the complete incompetence of their own is a good start. The media hype of the 99 year old pensioner is a great smokescreen to hide behind.

In going into ANY war the key requirement is to ensure the leadership is safe, under full protection and cannot be got near by an enemy. Hell UK failed in every single regard here because numerous members of the leadership team were absent at key moments.

Looking closer to home for the abject failure will not happen because it is so much easier to jump on a Xenophobic rant inspried by the media / politicians covering up their own incomptencece at a specific race. The 1930's showed what happens here.

[Asturias56]

As both myself and spouse are in the "recovery" phase of the Wuhan pestilence trust me when I say that the UK giving the CCP a reminder of the term "free navigation" is the very LEAST of options that are going through my mind at present. The world has to stand up to this regime, this regime that has unleashed such a catastrophic disease upon the world. The UK, the mother of all democracies, we should be in the forefront of RETRIBUTION. Or are you just another Kier Starmer/ Bill Gates. [ dodgy knight of the realm, multi millionaire and NOT a Dr] ?

Monkey - re-read your post - this is madness............. you can't go round exacting "retribution" on a country when a disease starts there. Maybe nuke Sierra Leone because a few people in the KK caught Ebola there a few years back. The idea the Chinese "unleashed the disease" is Trumpian false news - if anything they "unleashed " it on themselves

You have a (cmon) a simple desire to blame someone for a personal misfortune - I have close friends and colleagues recovering from the disease (some mild, some serious) but I don't think they think President Xi is behind it all.

[etudiant]

It makes no sense to blame China for this disaster, there was plenty of coverage of the outbreak and the carnage it wrought, yet no one in authority had the strength or the wit to act.
The WHO would not declare a pandemic, too embarrassing, the US CDC said not to worry, plus the public does not need masks, to disguise the reality that there was a huge shortage of masks, even for doctors and nurses, plus testing was restricted, even though the CDC tests were late and ineffective because of contamination.
The litany of errors is a long one, almost all of them here at home. So we need to get our act together first, before we start correcting others.

[pax britanica]

Uk the mother of all democracies? really i thought that was Greece oddly enough.
And as for that phrase today what a joke , as has oft been said once said the UK is a democracy for a day once every five years. As for today we have an utterly corrupt print media owned by people whose family supported Hitler, allowed, the current PM to use their front page daily with no balancing articles, tax evaders and scurrilous billionaire media moguls pushing their own agenda

And us standing up to China well two big problems there:

1 We could barely stand up to Taiwan these days especially on their doorstep
2 Morally, we have a few historical issues with China and forced supplies of opium, Shanghai , HK etc

And as always more concerned with 'our place in the world' than with the welfare of our citizens

[ORAC]

https://twitter.com/petedavo_world/status/1251900932561833985?s=21

https://www.snafu-solomon.com/2020/04/uss-america-lha-6-conducts-flight.html

[weemonkey]

WM

firstly, I hope you and your spouse recover fully from this awful virus. My Ex wife is a nurse and caught this while treating people at hospital. She tells me that it was the most vile despicable thing that she has ever gone through. She rang the ambulance at one point due to difficulties in breathing. Triage was that extreme that they told her she didn't need an ambulance because she could say a sentence without coughing or fainting so wasn't a priority.

I am wondering what you mean by standing up to China? What retribution are you thinking? Do you honestly think that China deliberately unleashed this upon the world while killing its own citizens; a biological MAD policy? Personally I don't think this is the case.

Should you wish retribution, there are two options, IMHO, that could be used. Firstly we could hit them economically. This would involve a whole-world effort and agreement to hit China where it hurts and economically isolate China. Bring back all factories. Don't buy Chinese goods. Stop all trade whatsoever. Expel Chinese workers etc. This may bring China to the table with the idea of claiming some sort of compensation tied with guarantees that they stop whatever practices we wish for them to stop. On the other hand, with their backs to the wall, the Chinese may push back militarily or financially. Call in all debts etc.
We could hit them militarily but this is something that I would not suggest. We would lose more than we would hope to gain.

Is there any chance, once you get better, that you could give us an idea of what your idea of Retribution is please?
Thank you for your good wishes we both are slowly recovering, fatigue is the main issue that and the cough...

I will admit that I posted in a somewhat tired and emotional state however.. "Retribution" a bit strong for some of you?
Say that to the families of the 17,000 plus who have perished already in the UK.
Some on here do seem to be detached from that awful growing figure. Racedo, pax Britannia et al please remind us of the 911 death toll....

Personally I think the CCP is on it's last legs.

I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if in the coming year(s) they find their stranglehold on information removed by a constellation of 30k cubesats...

And if their adventures of the far side of the moon (remember that) were to suddenly fall silent~~oh dear what a shame never mind....

[racedo]

Thank you for your good wishes we both are slowly recovering, fatigue is the main issue that and the cough...

I will admit that I posted in a somewhat tired and emotional state however.. "Retribution" a bit strong for some of you?
Say that to the families of the 17,000 plus who have perished already in the UK.
Some on here do seem to be detached from that awful growing figure. Racedo, pax Britannia et al please remind us of the 911 death toll....

Personally I think the CCP is on it's last legs.

I wouldn't be in the least bit surprised if in the coming year(s) they find their stranglehold on information removed by a constellation of 30k cubesats...

And if their adventures of the far side of the moon (remember that) were to suddenly fall silent~~oh dear what a shame never mind....

I know 12 people personally in a number of countries who have already died from this, including the dad of a secondary school classmate who I knew well whose mother also has it. Last Sunday at the Catholic church I attend we prayed online for 3 people whom I know from attending there who died last week, this weekend I expect similar if not worse numbers.

One of my closest friends is a GP who gets suited up to see a patient but not sure they will have enough PPE next week but you know what they will still go, she has not seen her son in 5 weeks, my best mates daughter is doing minimum 80 hr weeks in Covid wards in London hoping if she gets it she will survive and a lot of Phillipino nurses I know either by name or as friends of friends who attend same church are on the front line at hospitals in Surrey.

Yet somehow because we don't want blood spilled we are "detached".

[ORAC]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/stand-off-in-himalayas-as-chinese-troops-enter-india-g9fl3rkh0

Stand-off in Himalayas as Chinese troops enter India

India and China have tried to defuse a stand-off between thousands of troops high in the Himalayas that has threatened to escalate into the most serious confrontation between the rivals for decades.

Chinese forces crossed the 2,500-mile border with India at several points and set up camp after soldiers from both sides traded blows and pelted each other with stones a month ago.

In parts of Ladakh, more than 4,300m above sea level, thousands of Chinese troops are understood to have encroached up to four kilometres into Indian territory and dug in to repel counterattacks.

India has quickly deployed thousands of its troops to meet the incursion. Helicopters have faced off, boats have chased each other on Pangong Lake (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/soldiers-brawl-on-border-as-india-and-china-face-off-in-himalayan-region-of-ladakh-vl5d6mnjs) and fighter jets have flown sorties.

It is feared that a miscalculation by either side could tip the two most populous nations, both nuclear powers, into open conflict. Skirmishes between patrols along the unmarked Line of Actual Control in Ladakh, which forms the de facto border, are common but this time Chinese troops have occupied land not previously disputed.

After a meeting between Indian and Chinese commanders, Delhi said that both sides had agreed to “peacefully resolve” the confrontations......

[Less Hair]

Around mid century India will be the world's biggest nation and surpass China. Therefore these conflicts are relevant to the entire world. They could easily form some WW3 scenario.

[Fareastdriver]

This had been going on since 1963. That year the British Government sent out two flights of Javelins to assist the Indian Air Force with all weather fighter cover. Valiants of 90 and 214 Squadrons tanked them out and we had a week in a Hotel on Juhu beach in Bombay.

[Barksdale Boy]

Distractions from domestic problems come to mind.

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/16/india-says-soldiers-killed-on-disputed-himalayan-border-with-china

India says soldiers killed on disputed Himalayan border with China

Three members of India’s armed forces have been killed in a “violent face-off” with Chinese soldiers on their disputed Himalayan border, the Indian army has said in a statement.

The deaths are the first loss of life in the border area in at least 45 years, and come amid a renewed dispute between the two countries in recent weeks. Indian and Chinese soldiers, who often do not carry weapons in the area to avoid escalating conflicts, have brawled, detained each other and deployed forces and equipment in the western Himalayas in recent weeks.

“During the de-escalation process under way in the Galwan Valley, a violent face-off took place yesterday [Monday] night with casualties on both sides,” the Indian army said in a statement on Tuesday afternoon Delhi-time. “The loss of lives on the Indian side includes an officer and two soldiers.” It said “senior military officials of the two sides are currently meeting at the venue to defuse the situation”.

It was unclear whether shots had been fired or if the men were killed in hand-to-hand combat.

The Chinese military suffered casualties too, according to a tweet by the editor-in-chief of China’s state-run Global Times newspaper. “Based on what I know, Chinese side also suffered casualties in the Galwan Valley physical clash,” Hu Xijin wrote. He did not give further details.

[ORAC]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53061476

Kashmir clash: 20 Indian troops killed in fighting with Chinese forces

At least 20 Indian soldiers were killed in a clash with Chinese forces in Ladakh in the disputed Kashmir region, Indian officials say. The incident follows rising tensions, and is the first deadly clash in the border area in at least 45 years.

The Indian army initially said three of its soldiers had been killed, adding that both sides suffered casualties. But later on Tuesday, officials a number of critically injured soldiers had died of their wounds.

India's external affairs ministry accused China of breaking an agreement struck the previous week to respect the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Galwan Valley.......

[downsizer]

So the militaries of two nuclear-armed powers are holding mass nighttime brawls on remote Himalayan ridgelines....

What could possibly go wrong?

[Asturias56]

What is astonishing is that the Agreement - which has never been broken" forbids the use of guns within 2 km of the LOC". So of course, humanity finds another way. I'm investing in long bows ..............

I took a look on Google Earth at the Garwan Valley - God - it looks like a dreadful spot of absolutely no value whatsoever.

[havoc]

https://www.businessinsider.com/3-navy-carriers-in-pacific-seen-as-warning-to-china-2020-6

WASHINGTON (AP) — For the first time in nearly three years, three American aircraft carriers are patrolling the Indo-Pacific waters, a massive show of naval force in a region roiled by spiking tensions between the US and China and a sign that the Navy has bounced back from the worst days of the coronavirus outbreak (https://apnews.com/VirusOutbreak).

The unusual simultaneous appearance of the three warships, accompanied by Navy cruisers, destroyers, fighter jets and other aircraft, comes as the US escalates criticism of Beijing's response (https://apnews.com/211f49062091f5f9c80980910c32d6cb) to

the coronavirus outbreak, its moves to impose greater control over Hong Kong (https://apnews.com/958d1acda6ccfa40f22b67b6b8e246e8) and its campaign to militarize human-made islands in the South China Sea.

"There have been some indications in Chinese writings that the United States was hit hard by COVID-19, that military preparedness was low, so perhaps there is an effort by the United States to signal China that it should not miscalculate," said Bonnie Glaser, director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The Chinese will definitely portray this as an example of US provocations, and as evidence that the US is a source of instability in the region."

President Donald Trump, criticized for his own handling of the coronavirus outbreak (https://apnews.com/1b92ce21f8ddf7eefb634b92fee38fed), has condemned China for what he sees as a failure to adequately warn the world (https://apnews.com/68a9e1b91de4ffc166acd6012d82c2f9) about the COVID-19 threat. The administration has also moved to ban Chinese graduate students (https://apnews.com/ead127f6457ab02d8b0c39f545370212) and researchers with links to the People's Liberation Army or other security services from the United States.


The convergence of three carrier strike groups in the region is unusual because of the limited number of carriers and the fact that they are often cycling through repair schedules, port visits, training or deployments to other parts of the world. This week, however, Navy commanders said they were able to take advantage of the timing, particularly during this period of great power competition with China.

The US national defense strategy cites China as a top security concern, and Pentagon leaders have been working to shift more resources and military assets to the region to battle what they see is Beijing's growing economic influence and military might.


The ability to be present in a strong way is part of the competition. And as I always tell my guys here, you've got to be present to win when you're competing," said Rear Adm. Stephen Koehler, director of operations at Indo-Pacific Command. "Carriers and carrier strike groups writ large are phenomenal symbols of American naval power. I really am pretty fired up that we've got three of them at the moment."

Speaking to The Associated Press from his office in Hawaii, Koehler said China is slowly and methodically building up military outposts in the South China Sea (https://apnews.com/0f9aa6f0150baaa7b795bf3e53653c2d), putting missile and electronic warfare systems on them. The US and other allies and partners in the region have beefed up operations near the human-made islands to try to blunt China's development, but none of that has appeared to work.

Koehler said that most recently China deployed aircraft to Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands and is now operating them out of there.


On Thursday, the strike group warships were spread out across the Indo-Pacific. The USS Theodore Roosevelt and its strike group are operating in the Philippine Sea near Guam. The USS Nimitz strike group is in the Pacific off the US West Coast. The USS Ronald Reagan has left port in Japan and is operating in the Philippine Sea south of there.

Navy commanders were quick to point out that dozens of other Navy ships had been operating around the Pacific, but the three strike groups put a bit of an exclamation point on America's commitment to the region and its allies.

The Roosevelt has just returned to duty after spending more than two months sidelined in Guam with a massive COVID-19 outbreak among its crew. And small numbers of sailors on the Nimitz and the Reagan tested positive for the virus, triggering quarantines and extensive new health and safety procedures that had to be instituted before the ships could deploy.

As they deploy, sailors' daily lives on the ships and to some degree their operations at sea have been altered by the virus and the new precautions they must take to ensure the ships remain clear of infection and able to continue operations.


Onboard the Nimitz, Rear Adm. Jim Kirk said there have been no positive cases of the virus on the ship since it set out, and he is confident of all the changes put in place to keep it that way.

On the Nimitz and the other Pacific ships, crew members are screened daily, they wear masks where needed, meal hours have been extended to allow for more social distancing, and specific routes are designated on the ship to prevent sailors from bumping into one another in the narrow passageways and stairs.

"As we head out to stand the watch, the message that I have is that this is the end of the beginning" for the crew, said Kirk, commander of Carrier Strike Group 11. "Now it's time to go about doing our job to the best of our abilities."

Koehler said the ships will continue to work with allies and partners in the region, conducting exercises at sea and patrolling contested regions. One key change, however, will be their ability to stop in foreign ports.

The port visits have been largely curtailed, except to carefully pick up supplies when necessary. Guam has been designated the only safe harbor for port stops in the Pacific so far, and sailors have only limited freedom to go to the pier and cannot travel freely in the city. Navy leaders are looking into establishing other safe havens but haven't approved them yet.

This is, said Koehler, "the new normal." And he said that while it's not likely there will be three carrier strike groups consistently in the Pacific over the long term, "it's something we can do when we want to."

[ORAC]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/17/asia/india-china-military-comparison-hnk-intl-scli/index.html

Why conventional wisdom giving China the military edge over India may not be true

[West Coast]

Pivoting towards the west and the ensuring military contacts may be paying off.

[Asturias56]

But where would they fight each other? Up in the Himalayas is the only place - and that is god awful country where high tech isn't going to give you a lot of advantages

[Imagegear]

Question is whether Pakistan would join in to do the pincer job.

IG

[West Coast]

That imo would be the recipe for nukes to be considered.

[Fareastdriver]

The Pakistan Air Forces experience with the Shenyang J-6 wasn't a success. Rolls Royce were called in to adjust some of the imperial to metric measurements on the engine components in China to save the Chinese loss of face over the frequency of engine problems. It is well known in Pakistan the details of the 're-education' of Muslims in the north west of China so I do not think that they would be that pally in the military and religious sense.
n

[WhatsaLizad?]

I took a look on Google Earth at the Garwan Valley - God - it looks like a dreadful spot of absolutely no value whatsoever.

Any chance it's water?

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/19/australia-cyber-attack-attacks-hack-state-based-actor-says-australian-prime-minister-scott-morrison

Cyber-attack Australia: sophisticated attacks from ‘state-based actor’, PM says

[Asturias56]

Any chance it's water?

No - loads of water up there - and even more ice.

Looking at the images and reading the propaganda from both sides I suspect the river keeps changing course in a flat river valley with each ice melt. Not sure how they define the LAC but it's probably "along the line of the River Garwan" - which has several separate water courses in parallel in places. So what was the "obvious" border last year isn't this year - and that leads to "you're on our side - move on" and "the hell you say- we've been here for 10 years" and thus downwards.........

Nothing that a half decent treaty couldn't fix (see the Rio Grande as a prime example) but when you have two very large countries both absolutely convinced they are right and both appealing against "cartographic aggression" based on maps drawn by the Brits 100-200 years ago..................

[ORAC]

A56,

Nothing as easy and simple as that.......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control


https://cimg1.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/624x872/image_da9c0df5ae8da62ac7cb25c6cf4652ecd29adda6.png

[Asturias56]

I've seen map ORAC - quite useful. I spent time at college studying frontiers & boundaries and the Indo- CHina one was a classic example. Lines on maps that bear little relationship to what's on the ground. As I've said have a look at the Galwan River on GE - it a flat bottomed slot in the mountains with permanent glaciers on the ridge tops and in some of the feeder valleys. Almost no vegetation and a dusty wind blown stone plain with a wildly meandering river running down it. The Indians appear to have built a road quite a long ways up the valley on the SW side and there are occasional ragged "hamlets" and the odd military camp. But it is a hellish spot with absolutely no military value whatsoever.

No-one ever went here except for the odd trader or big game hunter - hence things like the "johnson Line"

One thing is for sure - until they both sit down and negotiate with an open mind and then properly delineate and demarcate it it will continue to fester.

[ORAC]

https://thewire.in/security/chinas-galwan-valley-claim-is-attempt-to-extend-official-claim-line-lac-westward

China's Galwan Valley Claim is Attempt to Extend Official Claim Line, LAC Westward



At no point in the past has China laid claim to the entire Galwan Valley, a sliver of flat land abutted by steep gorges through which the Galwan river flows and enters the Shyok river, and the maps Beijing has itself published in the past show its claim line stopping short of the confluence. Earlier this week, however, in the wake of bloody clashes between the Indian and Chinese armies in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed and China too suffered an unknown number of casualties, both the Peoples Liberation Army and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Beijing have described the Galwan Valley as part of China’s territory.

The Galwan river is named after Ghulam Rassul Galwan (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/meet-the-man-after-whom-galvan-river-is-named/articleshow/76363707.cms?from=mdr), a Ladakhi adventurer who accompanied many European explorers in the region at the turn of the 19th century. According to Ladakhi history the Galwan Nullah was named so by British geologists after he discovered a passage through what seemed like an impenetrable set of gorges. Over the years, the status of the Galwan Valley has changed and, if the recent developments are to be taken into account, it is still changing.

Commenting (http://military.people.com.cn/n1/2020/0616/c1011-31749029.html) on the incident of July 15, the official spokesman of the Western Theatre Command of the PLA, Zhang Shuili, accused the Indian side of “deliberately launching a provocative attack” and he went on to add that “the sovereignty of the Galwan Valley has always belonged to China.”

India, of course, disagrees with this claim....................

Since 1993, both India and China have maintained the fiction of a “Line of Actual Control” in the area, which was all right till the other day. Suddenly the Chinese have decided that the entire Galwan Valley is part of their territory.

The Chinese goal now seems to be to establish their boundary along the Shyok river, as it seems to be to push forward and control all of the north bank of Pangong Lake constraining Indian defences relating to the Leh region. As for the LAC, to paraphrase Humpty Dumpty, it is where you choose it to be.

[Asturias56]

I was reading an article that indicated the LAC has never been codified - its where both sides think its is - a recipe for a whole gamut of problems from honest errors all the way up to manipulated aggression.

No doubt in my mind the Chinese are stirring it up this time - but it's a pointless exercise TBH

[Lonewolf_50]

75 years ago the UN was formed with a primary purpose of preventing WW III. So far so good, but the overall record on collective security is mixed at best.
I do not think that a fight between China and India would necessarily be contained to a local region. To easy for it to leak out, either by accident or on purpose.
Not sure who will or will not raise the stakes. (Hoping the latter, will not, is what happens).

[West Coast]

75 years ago the UN was formed with a primary purpose of preventing WW III. So far so good, but the overall record on collective security is mixed at best.
I do not think that a fight between China and India would necessarily be contained to a local region. To easy for it to leak out, either by accident or on purpose.
Not sure who will or will not raise the stakes. (Hoping the latter, will not, is what happens).

Whats more effective at preventing WWIII, the UN or the concept of MAD?

[etudiant]

One would think that neither side is that interested in what appears to be very marginal territory. Afaik, the solution elsewhere, notably Antarctica, has been to make the area into a park, with ownership .claims deferred.

[West Coast]

One would think that neither side is that interested in what appears to be very marginal territory. Afaik, the solution elsewhere, notably Antarctica, has been to make the area into a park, with ownership .claims deferred.

For that many to die minus the use of firearms says it was a furious battle. Whether pride or a property line, there's more than a passing interest.

[ORAC]

https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/the-hindu-explains-who-does-galwan-valley-belong-to/article31879418.ece

Who does Galwan Valley belong to?

[Lonewolf_50]

Whats more effective at preventing WWIII, the UN or the concept of MAD? A bit of both. The UN is the child of the Peace of Westphalia, the Metternich System, the League of Nations, and a few other attempts by the Powers of the World to find other means of political leverage and suasion than the very expensive and destructive tool of politics that is war - in particular the industrial age version of intramural homicide that is war. (Called by Keegan if I recall, "the war by machine" phase of mankind's predilection to kill one another in organized groups).
The political calculus of what risk and what reward, on the balance, makes heading to war a political choice for sure was impacted by the very high cost of MAD. MAD didn't prevent various powers from using armed force, but it did prevent them from using it on each other, which is what WW III would, or will, look like. The Powers of the world going after each other.

[Asturias56]

Thanks ORAC - the links to the Hindu - most useful - a map (a terrible map) but a map at last - and quite a balanced account.

What seems to be clear is that is the Chinese haven't provided a map of where they think the actual line runs - which is not good. It allows them to claim all sorts of infringements that no-one else has any idea about.

For those interested the actual position of the action seems to be around 34 deg 45' 30"N 078 deg 11' 04" E - on GE the LAC (in red ) is well south of the Galwan (or Gallowan on GE) river until it get close near to the subsidiary river coming in from the south 5km upstream from the Shyock/Galwan junction where is apparently a long established Chinese border marker. What seems to kicked things of was the completion of a bridge - but not sure if that was over the Galwan (bridge N_S) or and E-W bridge over the Shyok linking the finger of the Indian area to the main areas to the west. Chinese trying to push west to be able to overlook the strategic road that runs N-S on the west side of the Shyock

[ORAC]

Speaking of Pakistan....

https://www.timesnownews.com/videos/times-now/india/pakistan-targets-innocent-civilians-in-uri-several-residential-structures-damaged/64660

Pakistan targets innocent civilians in Uri; several residential structures damaged

Pakistan targets innocent Indian civilians and Indian villages in Uri region in the Baramulla district, in the Indian union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. 5 civilians have been injured and several residential structures have been damaged in Pakistani shelling........

Mir Fareed, J&K Bureau Chief says " Violations have been increased and it won't be right to call it violations anymore as it is happening every day. There is firing every day at LAC, let it be Jammu or the Kashmir Valley. Since yesterday, there has been heavy shelling by Pakistan and it has been retaliated in the equal measure by the Indian army."

Watch the video to know more......

[ORAC]

https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/vigil-up-as-china-lines-up-more-jets-bombers-102461

Vigil up as China lines up more jets, bombers

China has added numbers to its air-based offensive platforms along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh. It has also ramped up aggression and vigil to prevent Indian troops from patrolling east of “Finger 4” in the north of Pangong Tso.

India has also ramped up preparations on its side as the two armies remain fully deployed along the 826-km front of the LAC in Ladakh........

Indian agencies have noticed deployment of additional fighter jets, bombers and attack helicopters at four bases close to the LAC. Such additions have been noticed at Hotan in Xinjiang (just north of Ladakh), Ngyari (around 100 km south-east of Ladakh) and Shigatse (150 km north of Sikkim). There has also been PLA movement at Nyingchi, north of Arunachal Pradesh.

At Pangong Tso, the attempt of the PLA is to alter the LAC unilaterally. Armour and artillery buildup has also been done at Gogra Hot Springs. Indian positions at Depsang, Murgo, Galwan, Hot Springs, Koyul, Fukche and Demchok face enhanced threat from the PLA.

India has added Apache helicopters, Sukhoi fighter jets and tanks along the LAC.

The latest to be added is a division of the Indian Army that is otherwise kept ready for any contingency. After being acclimatised for over two weeks to undertake any operation at an altitude of over 14,000 feet, it is now being deployed. In all, a total of three divisions now form an arc and are ready to respond.......

[Asturias56]

Strange time to stir the brown stuff - monsoon due any time soon and that will stop any movement totally...............

[dr dre]

Thanks ORAC - the links to the Hindu - most useful - a map (a terrible map) but a map at last - and quite a balanced account.


I would hardly call the maps in that link balanced or useful, the colour coding on the first map from The Hindu newspaper shows all of Indian claimed Ladakh province to be Indian territory, when in reality it is not and is firmly part of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan).

[Imagegear]

Question is whether Pakistan would join in to do the pincer job.

IG

There more than a little sense that this is already underway. Get the Indians involved on two fronts. Boxed in by two nuclear powers = catastrophe in the making

IG

[ORAC]

They’re already shelling each other in a daily basis - see my post #469.

[Lyneham Lad]

And meanwhile, down at sea-level - US carriers return to challenge China in the Western Pacific (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/42ee597c-b4a8-11ea-b6a1-482b5c73d91f?shareToken=5bb43b2ad2fc9b259773d13bb963aa4e). Article + photo in The Times today.

Two American carrier strike groups have begun operating together in the Western Pacific for the first time for nearly two years in a signal to China that the US Navy is back in business after the coronavirus pandemic crippled deterrent patrols in the region.

USS Nimitz and USS Theodore Roosevelt, each escorted by up to six warships and submarines, launched joint training exercises in the Philippine Sea. The presence of the carriers, with a combined 180 aircraft and helicopters, is intended to redress the impression fostered by China (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/topic/china) that the American military has been on the back foot and was ill-prepared to deal with shipborne virus outbreaks.

[Asturias56]

I would hardly call the maps in that link balanced or useful, the colour coding on the first map from The Hindu newspaper shows all of Indian claimed Ladakh province to be Indian territory, when in reality it is not and is firmly part of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan).

Dre - I understand it is an offence in India to publish a map that shows those areas as anything else but Indian - and it's written in the constitution that they can't give any of the country away. UK & US publishers often just colour it as Indian and mark the Indian claim line as "disputed boundary" - otherwise the books are liable to be seized and pulped. I assume the same applies in China.

[Asturias56]

And meanwhile, down at sea-level - US carriers return to challenge China in the Western Pacific (https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/42ee597c-b4a8-11ea-b6a1-482b5c73d91f?shareToken=5bb43b2ad2fc9b259773d13bb963aa4e). Article + photo in The Times today.

There was something on the BBC saying the Chinese were thinking of bringing out their second carrier to have a drive around the scenery thereabouts - like buses - you wait a couple of years and then three or four turn up at once.....

[etudiant]

For that many to die minus the use of firearms says it was a furious battle. Whether pride or a property line, there's more than a passing interest.

Amen to that, you are quite right that the scale of the casualties sends a clear message.
Yet it seems to me that both parties have much to gain by allowing this worthless bit of real estate to remain in legal limbo.
With luck, we could have the LAC nature preserve, a tourist draw rather than a deathtrap.

[ORAC]

The critical words here are “gun positions”.

Remember the fight was hand to hand using clubs because the current treaty/agreement is that the LAC is kept weapons free.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/satellite-images-reports-indicate-plas-set-up-camp-at-clash-site/articleshow/76597732.cms

India-China standoff: Satellite images, reports indicate PLA set up camp at clash site

NEW DELHI: Latest commercial satellite images and ground reports indicate Chinese troops are back on Indian territory in the Galwan Valley region in eastern Ladak, setting up a much larger camp with gun positions in place of the observation post that was destroyed by Indian troops in the bloody clash of June 15th.......

[Lyneham Lad]

Article & photo in The Guardian this afternoon.
Satellite images show Chinese construction near site of India border clash (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/25/satellite-images-show-chinese-construction-near-site-of-india-border-clash?CMP=share_btn_link)

[Lonewolf_50]

Chinese are calling India's bluff.
They seem to be working on the old "possession is nine tenths of the law" or something like that.
India, ball's in your court.

[Fareastdriver]

I wonder how much water is going to rush down that river bed when the monsoon strikes.

[Asturias56]

Excellent point - if you look a tthe MAXAR picture you can see the lines where the river comes overt the gravel - either monsoon or glacial melt must flood most of that site. They got a truck in (you can see it) probably by driving down the riverbed - OK now but... and I can't see any "gun positions". Its hard to ID exactly where that site is on GE but it's clearly an escalation.

On the other hand " in place of the observation post that was destroyed by Indian troops in the bloody clash of June 15th" - which suggests it wasn't exactly one -sided...........

[ORAC]

India starts a TV campaign to boycott Chinese goods.

Quite a good professional ad, be interesting to see if they push it to start imposing tariffs or import restrictions......

https://twitter.com/bidishalolo/status/1276349873676115969?s=21

[ORAC]

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/india-moves-air-defence-missile-systems-into-eastern-ladakh-sector/articleshow/76661064.cms

India moves air defence missile systems into Eastern Ladakh Sector

[Buster Hyman]

I'm enjoying WION news, especially Palki Sharma! She gets stuck into the CCP!:ok:

[ORAC]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/27/asean-leaders-cite-1982-un-treaty-in-south-china-sea-dispute

Asean leaders cite 1982 UN treaty in South China Sea dispute

[Asturias56]

That would indeed be the best way forward - an international conference and work groups - but the Chinese HATE that idea. They always claim they are willing to negotiate boundaries but only on a one-on-one basis. TBF they have, in the past, negotiated quite fair land boundaries with most of their neighbours. But these days maybe Xi and his mates wouldn't be able to resist the temptation to lean on the weaker brethren.

[Lonewolf_50]

Asturias, 800 pound gorillas are not obliged to be polite. Nor to get along well with others.

[Asturias56]

you are right but to quote Mr Capone "you get so much further with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone..."

[Fareastdriver]

As Mao Tse tung said. 枪杆子里面出政权 (Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun).

[Asturias56]

I'm reading Bolton's book - it must have Xi et al in stitches.................. they don't need to fight anyone - just keep varying the pressure and make sure no idiot starts something on their own. They'll get what they want sometime in the next 10-20 years. No-one in the west can think beyond the next election...............

(I think Bolton is a nut case on many things - Dr Strangelove indeed - but he isn't a total idiot and his description of process in Washington is really frightening)

[ORAC]

Then and now. The militarisation - and introduction of weapons, continues apace.......

The Times:

“Beijing claims that it wants to calm the situation but also insists that it will not budge on any territorial claims. Last week satellite images showed that China had built new structures, including a camp and a new road, near the site of the clash with India, raising fears that tensions will escalate.

​​​​​​​It has also emerged that Beijing has deployed a new lightweight truck-mounted howitzer designed for rugged terrain to the Tibetan Plateau. The PCL-181, a 155mm self-propelled gun, is said to be one of the best in the world. Footage of the howitzer being transported via railway to the plateau appeared on state television.

“Its appearance on the front line means China is serious about using force to safeguard territorial integrity,” wrote the Global Times, a party-run newspaper with a nationalistic bent......


https://cimg6.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/1180x663/image_0afee1491e30735c439dda9327fdc9afb2816c39.jpeg

[Lyneham Lad]

Slightly further afield...
In The Guardian - Australia to acquire long-range missiles as PM warns of dangerous post-Covid-19 world (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jun/30/australia-to-acquire-long-range-missiles-as-pm-warns-of-dangerous-post-covid-19-world?CMP=share_btn_link)

Snip:-
Australia’s defence force is set to acquire long-range missiles and research hypersonic weapons systems, as Scott Morrison (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/scott-morrison) warns the country to prepare for a more dangerous post-Covid-19 world and an increasingly contested Indo-Pacific region.

The Australian prime minister will use a speech on Wednesday to outline a more muscular defence posture, arguing the ADF needs “stronger deterrence capabilities” as the Indo-Pacific becomes “the focus of the dominant global contest of our age” amid tensions between China (https://www.theguardian.com/world/china) and the United States.

Morrison will reveal a pledge to spend $270bn on new and upgraded defence capabilities over the next decade – a substantial increase from the $195bn committed in the 10 years from 2016 when the last defence white paper was released (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/25/australia-to-increase-defence-spending-by-26bn-amid-rising-regional-tensions), although it covers a later time period.

[Asturias56]

Thanks ORAC - those two photos are clearly south at the top and are at 34 deg 46' 09.50" N 078 deg 12' 47" E on GE. The LAC runs along the top (or actually southern) boundary of the pictures - its about 4.5 kms east of the junction with the Shyock River. If you believe the line on GE the camp is only about 100m over the line and I suspect it's actually on the 1962 Chinese Boundary Marker.

It would be nice to have dates on the two pictures - the track seems to disappear to the top (south) along the river - the nearest track on GE is about 15 kms ESE as the crow flies but more like 30 km if they follow the river bed........

[ORAC]

If you believe the line on GE the camp is only about 100m over the line and I suspect it's actually on the 1962 Chinese Boundary Marker.


From the same article.........


A top Chinese military commander has been pictured painting a border marker on the country’s disputed Himalayan frontier with India in a public show of Beijing’s determination to push its territorial claims.

The images of Wang Haijiang, the commander-in-chief of the People’s Liberation Army in Tibet, showed him repainting the character for “China” in red on the frontier, established in 1962 when Chinese troops defeated Indian forces in a border war.

Lieutenant General Wang is the most senior military figure to have visited the border since June 15, when a deadly border brawl broke out in the contentious Galwan Valley between Chinese and Indian soldiers after a weeks-long standoff.........


https://cimg5.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/531x664/image_ed26be4275133792d9bbe43715f243ebb5a8618b.jpeg


https://cimg0.ibsrv.net/gimg/pprune.org-vbulletin/443x295/image_ce6a391bf86a910d36de59c4b4f5ddd1d522d2c5.jpeg

[SLXOwft]

Interesting article, published 19 June, on warontherocks by Yun Sun, Director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. He seems to think the incident wasn't premeditated and is partly the result of increased Chinese paranoia in the wake of Covid-19 and a feeling India was stabbing them in the back.

China’s top South Asia experts were not consulted until roughly ten days after the beginning of the standoff. The late involvement of the policy community suggests that the standoff was not based on advanced planning.

China’s Strategic Assessment of the Ladakh Clash (https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/chinas-strategic-assessment-of-the-ladakh-clash/?utm_source=pocket-newtab-global-en-GB)

Conclusion

The Ladakh clash should not have been a surprise. Similar events have been happening along the disputed border between China and India for years, but only the few most heated ones make the news. Beijing believes India is exploiting a temporary period of Chinese weakness and is responding forcefully as a result. Strategically, it may not help China’s desired goal to keep India neutral. But since Beijing sees a neutral India as untenable to begin with, tactical gains that can bog India down along the disputed border, frustrate New Delhi’s regional and global ambitions, and remind India of the eventual need for compromise may not be the worst case in China’s cost-benefit analysis. Tactically, China appears to be aiming for what it achieved in the 1962 war. Despite what the outsiders might see as China’s mistake, China is unlikely to change its current strategic assessment. China and India will eventually find a face-saving mutual compromise to end the Ladakh standoff, as neither wants a war. However, the unsettled border will continue to destabilize, fester, and brew more clashes down the road.

[ORAC]

I think these two reports are probably related.......

Japan to test IR senor for missile detection; will use commercial satellites to track Chinese ships ? Alert 5 (http://alert5.com/2020/07/01/japan-to-test-ir-senor-for-missile-detection-will-use-commercial-satellites-to-track-chinese-ships/#more-82737)

Japan to test IR sensor for missile detection; will use commercial satellites to track Chinese ships

Japan?s LDP to consider getting Tomahawks for preemptive strikes ? Alert 5 (http://alert5.com/2020/07/01/japans-ldp-to-consider-getting-tomahawks-for-preemptive-strikes/)

Japan’s LDP to consider getting Tomahawks for preemptive strikes

[Asturias56]

Thanks ORAC!!!