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Worldwide Redundant Pilots-Smile Please

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Worldwide Redundant Pilots-Smile Please

Old 29th Sep 2020, 21:35
  #101 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Location: Dubai, once... now London
Age: 46
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I totally agree with PLZ comments above. As of now it’s plain uncharted territory, any guess is purely a crystal ball exercise. My opinion based on what I can read from an aviation and medical point of view is that the second half of 2021 will most likely be the period we are going to start to see the light at the end of the tunnel, and from there on a slow and hopefully constant climb will be possibile. I can’t see any recruitment (I mean classic recruitment, not the 2/3 pilots getting in being friends of friends) coming up before spring 2022 and I am afraid I am damned optimistic.
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Old 29th Sep 2020, 22:43
  #102 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
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Good point, nickler. There's indeed a difference between hiring and recruitment. Hiring is happening even as we speak, however dire the situation now. But recruitment, defined as a proactive search for employees on part of a company, will not be happening on any significant scale this year or next year. Why? Because most DFOs already have a list of people to call whenever someone needs to be hired. Those might be pilots made redundant by the same operator earlier on, acquaintances returning from the Middle East, people who have worked for the operator at some past point and have demonstrated a good track record etc. They will inevitably have priority over any external applicant.

With this in mind, my piece of advice for those looking for a job is - don't leave unchecked any opportunity to return to a place where you have previously worked, whether that was 1, 3 or 5 years ago. As long as you left on good terms, that's where your chances are higher than anywhere else. When vacancies are few and far between, those who are already known to the right people and have proven their worth are usually considered first.
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Old 30th Sep 2020, 03:54
  #103 (permalink)  
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Prophetic words there PilotLZ and Nickler.
Sadly, but most probably, recruitment drives may not really be seen until mid next year. If even that. Hiring of course goes on with the need of the hour.
I personally feel that a vaccine would be a game changer. Not just for aviation but also for the overall economy as a whole.
Will be the first baby step towards the giant leap forwards. Fingers crossed !
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Old 1st Oct 2020, 04:37
  #104 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2009
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Problem is putting too much faith in the vaccine. They still don't know the efficacy or how long it's going to protect. At the moment they are happy to just get a 50% efficacy out of the vaccines so even if 100% of the population is vaccinated only 50% will be protected (we can then hope the other 50% will get a milder run if they do get infected). How long is it going to be before everyone is vaccinated? will it be a requirement to fly? Even with my most optimistic glasses on I can't see any meaningful recovery of aviation this side of summer 2021 and possibly well into '22.
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Old 1st Oct 2020, 14:51
  #105 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
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Aviation has grown at c 6% per annum since the 50s. There have been bumps in this, and some huge bumps - 9/11 and later the financial crunch, with Lehman's demise at its peak are the 2 most recent big bumps.
During/after the big bumps, lots of gurus said "it will never be the same again".

After the bumps, Aviation continued to grow at its normal rate.

However, this Wuhan virus is an even bigger bump. Will Aviation recover? Yes. And the old growth rates will resume. ...................As long as some of the Majors can survive a year or so of very limited cash generation.

So, my optimistic spin is that by 2022, Aviation will be growing strongly again.
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Old 1st Oct 2020, 16:01
  #106 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
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"It's never going to be the same as in 2019", many of the doom and gloom merchants say. And that's a matter of fact. Just as in 2019 it was not quite the same as in 2018 and in 2018 it was not the same as in 2017. The world is constantly changing. Think about all the companies that vanished since 2015, all the new ones which were created and the changes in fleet types and numbers, destinations and whatnot else in all those which lived through this entire 5-year period. Which ones of the existing companies will make it through the next 5 years, what will they look like and what will the newly found players be like remains to be seen. Some tails will get repainted, that's for sure. Some will do better than others. But, on the grand scheme of things, mass air travel will still be there and growing - it will just have some chairs reshuffled, as it has always been.
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Old 2nd Oct 2020, 06:32
  #107 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
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Humanity learns from adversity. We become more resilient with each crisis. Bouncebacks are stronger not least because all that pent up will and energy needs to be exercised. No money? Both my neighbours are broke as hell in average to low paid jobs. They holiday much more than me and have always done so. Yes, business travel is unlikely to ever make a recovery but it's my view a lot of business travel is not colleagues meeting other colleagues but companies meeting clients. And you simply don't risk a new business deal for the sake of spending £200 in a flight ticket. So it won't be as bad as we think.

Next year is a write off and there will be more bankruptcies, perhaps even major ones but next year this time airlines will be making solid plans for a major surge in flying for 2022. There will be a temporary recruitment crisis. Not necessarily because of a shortage of pilots but due to an inability to get us all trained, renewed and online. If they're wise they'll start early.

I think the greatest amount of doom and gloom comes from those in their 50s and 60s who were in cushy jobs and know there is nothing out there that can ever match the cosseted lifestyle and high renumeration they had. For us in our 30s and 40s we have much more acceptance of the new norm and have a very tempered expectation.
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Old 2nd Oct 2020, 08:44
  #108 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
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I think that the perception of how bad a situation is might be based not only on objective figures, but also on some subconscious comparison of the expected duration of the crisis to expected duration of the remainder of one's career. I know that this may start another fight about pension pots and all the likes, but folks in their 50s and 60s are generally far better off and far more secure financially than the youngsters who haven't even paid back their training debt yet. Nonetheless, the younger guys and girls seem not to succumb to much negative talks. Why? Perhaps because they have the realisation that 1 or 2 years are not any sizable fraction of the 30-40 years of career they have got ahead of them. If you are 25, 2 years equal 5% of your time between now and 65. If you are 60, 2 years are already 40% of your time to 65. Massive difference.
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Old 2nd Oct 2020, 14:30
  #109 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
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I don’t mind a new norm as long as if, and when, normality returns our TCs go back to where they were....and then I woke up.
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Old 2nd Oct 2020, 22:29
  #110 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
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Given that Lufthansa is unlikely to be back to its pre-COVID capacity before 2024, largely because of long-haul, and that there are already plenty of people in the pipeline - no wonder. Also, there will likely be more than enough experienced German pilots fighting for each place in Lufthansa, no matter what. So, why generate extra costs in times when cash is short? Airlines were shown what a high-risk investment cadet programmes are like never before. You can never truly guarantee that, in two years time when your cadets will graduate, the market situation will be favorable enough to allow for their intake. Back in October 2018, did we think that this would happen? Absolutely not!

With this in mind, I would advise anyone aiming for a cadet programme in the next couple of years, no matter where in the world, to accept that they will likely only be offered something where the entire financial risk lies with them. You pay for everything upfront and MAYBE you will get a job in the end. Likely not right away but after spending some time in a holding pool. So, think twice about whether paying any premium price for such an arrangement is worth it. And, when the time comes, only go for it if you're sure that you can afford the less-than-favourable scenario.
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Old 3rd Oct 2020, 07:18
  #111 (permalink)  
 
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It will take at least 5 years (IMHO) for the airlines to reabsorb all the experienced pilots now on the street. And the Ts and Cs will be far worse than what we/they are all used to. Market forces.

So I would say, optimistically, the demand for fresh new pilots want appear for another 5-7 years.
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Old 5th Oct 2020, 15:24
  #112 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: USA
Posts: 2,506
Here's a little something:

"Grounded pilots are literally going back to the land in Australia where they’re finding work driving huge agricultural harvesters."

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/...n-agriculture/

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Old 6th Oct 2020, 09:39
  #113 (permalink)  
 
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“Pilots spend a lot of time operating machinery. That’s kind of their core job,” Thomas told the Guardian. “And whether it’s an airplane or an agricultural machine, it’s all the same.”

There you have the solution for the next pilot shortage...
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Old 6th Oct 2020, 11:46
  #114 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
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This is the kind of statement that drives me nuts.

In addition to this one "Andrew King has traded the left seat of Hainan Airlines aircraft for the cab of a harvester and he’s looking forward to getting back to work. “They’ve recognized the transferability of the skillset of an airline pilot, someone who could operate heavy equipment and learn large amounts of information quickly and remain proficient,” he said.

So I believe the opposite could be true, i.e. you can have a farmer in command of an airliner with minimum training since they are used to the GPS.
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Old 6th Oct 2020, 11:52
  #115 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Europe
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Why do we even need separate qualifications for a harvester, an aeroplane, a coach and a train? It's all the same! The job should be called "Moving machinery operator", with one ticket for all types of rolling, flying and sailing machines out there.

On a serious note, good thing that the guys in question were given some solution to ride this out. Especially knowing just how bad the situation with airlines in Australia is (not that it's awesome elsewhere in the world though).
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Old 6th Oct 2020, 12:44
  #116 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Uk
Posts: 120
Aye, it’s all true.
At school I used to look at the Wurzels chugging past and hope that one day “ I’d have a brand new combine harvester “.

Maybe covid is my chance ?
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 03:33
  #117 (permalink)  
 
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I'm a 747 captain, and i would much rather drive a combine harvester, be home every night, with decent pay. Where do I apply?
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Old 7th Oct 2020, 06:04
  #118 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: Neither here or there
Posts: 141
What this thread now highlights is that there is too much of a good thing. This is hands down one of the most coveted and nicest jobs in the world. However, those that have been doing it the longest or are worked to the bone flying 800-900 hours per year, are increasingly hating it. I have one decade each in both aviation and business technology. I'd rather be flying most days, but after 3 on the trot, give me the office back quick!

For that reason, I'm a massive advocate of airline flying as a part time career as a job option at every airline. Definitely too late for most of you. I have tried it part time, having worked for a charter outfit and it was the best time of my life. Im a contractor in business tech and senior enough to write my own schedule. Sadly charter went tits up.
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Old 13th Oct 2020, 10:43
  #119 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Uk
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CW247

I think after this a lot of people who have been forced part time, won’t want to go back . I’ve done part time, and if you can afford it, it’s definitely the way to go - with any job !

Last edited by Meester proach; 13th Oct 2020 at 10:43. Reason: Punctuation.
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