Worldwide Redundant Pilots-Smile Please

[CW247]

Humanity learns from adversity. We become more resilient with each crisis. Bouncebacks are stronger not least because all that pent up will and energy needs to be exercised. No money? Both my neighbours are broke as hell in average to low paid jobs. They holiday much more than me and have always done so. Yes, business travel is unlikely to ever make a recovery but it's my view a lot of business travel is not colleagues meeting other colleagues but companies meeting clients. And you simply don't risk a new business deal for the sake of spending £200 in a flight ticket. So it won't be as bad as we think.

Next year is a write off and there will be more bankruptcies, perhaps even major ones but next year this time airlines will be making solid plans for a major surge in flying for 2022. There will be a temporary recruitment crisis. Not necessarily because of a shortage of pilots but due to an inability to get us all trained, renewed and online. If they're wise they'll start early.

I think the greatest amount of doom and gloom comes from those in their 50s and 60s who were in cushy jobs and know there is nothing out there that can ever match the cosseted lifestyle and high renumeration they had. For us in our 30s and 40s we have much more acceptance of the new norm and have a very tempered expectation.

[PilotLZ]

I think that the perception of how bad a situation is might be based not only on objective figures, but also on some subconscious comparison of the expected duration of the crisis to expected duration of the remainder of one's career. I know that this may start another fight about pension pots and all the likes, but folks in their 50s and 60s are generally far better off and far more secure financially than the youngsters who haven't even paid back their training debt yet. Nonetheless, the younger guys and girls seem not to succumb to much negative talks. Why? Perhaps because they have the realisation that 1 or 2 years are not any sizable fraction of the 30-40 years of career they have got ahead of them. If you are 25, 2 years equal 5% of your time between now and 65. If you are 60, 2 years are already 40% of your time to 65. Massive difference.

[Meester proach]

I don’t mind a new norm as long as if, and when, normality returns our TCs go back to where they were....and then I woke up.

[PilotLZ]

Given that Lufthansa is unlikely to be back to its pre-COVID capacity before 2024, largely because of long-haul, and that there are already plenty of people in the pipeline - no wonder. Also, there will likely be more than enough experienced German pilots fighting for each place in Lufthansa, no matter what. So, why generate extra costs in times when cash is short? Airlines were shown what a high-risk investment cadet programmes are like never before. You can never truly guarantee that, in two years time when your cadets will graduate, the market situation will be favorable enough to allow for their intake. Back in October 2018, did we think that this would happen? Absolutely not!

With this in mind, I would advise anyone aiming for a cadet programme in the next couple of years, no matter where in the world, to accept that they will likely only be offered something where the entire financial risk lies with them. You pay for everything upfront and MAYBE you will get a job in the end. Likely not right away but after spending some time in a holding pool. So, think twice about whether paying any premium price for such an arrangement is worth it. And, when the time comes, only go for it if you're sure that you can afford the less-than-favourable scenario.

[Flying Clog]

It will take at least 5 years (IMHO) for the airlines to reabsorb all the experienced pilots now on the street. And the Ts and Cs will be far worse than what we/they are all used to. Market forces.

So I would say, optimistically, the demand for fresh new pilots want appear for another 5-7 years.

[bafanguy]

Here's a little something:

"Grounded pilots are literally going back to the land in Australia where they’re finding work driving huge agricultural harvesters."

https://www.avweb.com/aviation-news/...n-agriculture/

[SaulGoodman]

“Pilots spend a lot of time operating machinery. That’s kind of their core job,” Thomas told the Guardian. “And whether it’s an airplane or an agricultural machine, it’s all the same.”

There you have the solution for the next pilot shortage...

[nickler]

This is the kind of statement that drives me nuts.

In addition to this one "Andrew King has traded the left seat of Hainan Airlines aircraft for the cab of a harvester and he’s looking forward to getting back to work. “They’ve recognized the transferability of the skillset of an airline pilot, someone who could operate heavy equipment and learn large amounts of information quickly and remain proficient,” he said.

So I believe the opposite could be true, i.e. you can have a farmer in command of an airliner with minimum training since they are used to the GPS.

[PilotLZ]

Why do we even need separate qualifications for a harvester, an aeroplane, a coach and a train? It's all the same! The job should be called "Moving machinery operator", with one ticket for all types of rolling, flying and sailing machines out there.

On a serious note, good thing that the guys in question were given some solution to ride this out. Especially knowing just how bad the situation with airlines in Australia is (not that it's awesome elsewhere in the world though).

[Meester proach]

Aye, it’s all true.
At school I used to look at the Wurzels chugging past and hope that one day “ I’d have a brand new combine harvester “.

Maybe covid is my chance ?

[Flying Clog]

I'm a 747 captain, and i would much rather drive a combine harvester, be home every night, with decent pay. Where do I apply?

[CW247]

What this thread now highlights is that there is too much of a good thing. This is hands down one of the most coveted and nicest jobs in the world. However, those that have been doing it the longest or are worked to the bone flying 800-900 hours per year, are increasingly hating it. I have one decade each in both aviation and business technology. I'd rather be flying most days, but after 3 on the trot, give me the office back quick!

For that reason, I'm a massive advocate of airline flying as a part time career as a job option at every airline. Definitely too late for most of you. I have tried it part time, having worked for a charter outfit and it was the best time of my life. Im a contractor in business tech and senior enough to write my own schedule. Sadly charter went tits up.

[Meester proach]

CW247

I think after this a lot of people who have been forced part time, won’t want to go back . I’ve done part time, and if you can afford it, it’s definitely the way to go - with any job !