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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

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Who will survive this and be here in 6 months ?

Old 16th Mar 2020, 17:20
  #161 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: uk
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Originally Posted by procede View Post
Do not worry. If we, the taxpayers, do save them, this will be in a way which essentially will make the stock worthless (i.e. nationalisation). The shareholders will thus be the first who will be screwed over.
Real question is what happens to their (typically offshore) debt if they are bailed out. Shareholders get a much worse deal both ways these days, used to be you got the profits in the good times and took the losses in the bad times, now in the good times you get a share of whats left of the profit, after tax and the holders of the offshore leveraged debt take cut (tax free).

IMO taxpayer bailouts for businesses with too little in reserve to survive a downturn should generally not go to the holders of the debt that put the business in that position in the first place, and particularly not when that debt is offshore to avoid paying tax on the profits.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 17:29
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by procede View Post
The shareholders will thus be the first who will be screwed over.
However it's a fair bet that senior management will be unscathed other than perhaps the odd bonus and the profit from selling awarded shares.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 18:45
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Fortissimo View Post
You are making the assumption that the people who would have died anyway (normal death rate) will dilute the numbers of deaths purely attributable to Covid-19. Some, perhaps. Many of those already deceased had underlying health conditions but that increased their susceptibility to Covid-19 effects being terminal - you can't assume they would have died anyway. What is very clear is that there is a pandemic infection doing the rounds that kills up to 3% of those infected, and we still do not know exactly what proportion of the population is likely to become infected. As for dramatic net growth or otherwise in deaths, there is pretty good evidence from the Bergamo (Italy) local newspaper, where the obituary notices have gone from the normal 1.5 pages to 10 per day. I call that dramatic.

For all of us, it is worth re-reading Dr tbd's excellent post #109 - he is only a consultant anaesthetist so might know what he is talking about? Time to start taking this seriously.
Is the thread about airlines here in 6 months or the general public...
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 18:50
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RatherBeFlying View Post
Denti's talking epidemiology

Covid19 spreads like the common cold; so, a strong probability just about all of us will be exposed to it over the next few years. Identified cases tend to be the severe ones, but at least that denominator (positive tests) is known. Silent infections are likely a much larger denominator that we don't really know at present.

As for a vaccine, they've been trying for many decades to develop one against a fellow coronavirus, the common cold.
Rhinovirus too
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 18:53
  #165 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
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We recently booked a flight from UK to Singapore via Dubai to join a cruise ship. When we had to alter our arrangements to stop in Dubai we expected a refund on the Dubai to Singapore leg (business class). Oh no. The original flight was cancelled by the airline and we had to buy another ticket to DXB. This turned out to be £400pp dearer than UK to SIN. Fair enough, we accepted the law of supply and demand. BUT, When Richard Branson starts asking for £7.5bn to keep his airline afloat I say no way. Supply and demand is not a one way street and when the going gets tough don't ask for my (taxpayer) money. Sell an island Sir Richard and that goes for any other airline bleating about no pax!!
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 19:02
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN2132V5

...well...that didn't take long
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 19:07
  #167 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Rockytop, Tennessee, USA
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U.S. airlines are going to the trough hoping for more than $50 billion.

From CNBC:

U.S. airlines are seeking government assistance of more than $50 billion, including a mix of direct aid and loan guarantees, as the industry reels from the coronavirus outbreak, a lobbying group that represents 10 U.S. passenger and cargo airlines said Monday.

The aid, if received, would be the industry’s first broad bailout since the wake of the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks. It is also the clearest sign yet of the financial damage coronavirus and the draconian measures governments are taking to stop it are having on American businesses.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/us-a...-business.html

Airlines for America, the industry lobbying group formerly known as the Air Transport Association, looks like they could use a web page update:



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Old 16th Mar 2020, 20:48
  #168 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
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Originally Posted by Vendee View Post
I can only speak for my country but I don't see why big business, its directors and shareholders can fatten themselves in the good times and then expect Joe Public to give them money when things turn sour.
Well if we went socialist we wouldn't get fat in good time so then bad times would not even be noticed as a change to the worker bees
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 21:06
  #169 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GKOC41 View Post
Is the thread about airlines here in 6 months or the general public...
I tried to get a separate thread for Airline bailouts going...but Mods had other ideas & combined 'em...so live with it...

PS: ...I'm over 75 so likely one o' the dead ones to come...so fit into what I thought this was originally about..

Last edited by BlankBox; 16th Mar 2020 at 21:21.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 21:22
  #170 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by dogsridewith View Post
There have been a couple reports of arthritis drugs (Rheumatoid Arthritis?) being tried (with some success?) for treating Covid-19 cases. But drug names or types were not stated. Methotrexate? Leflunomide? The "Biologics?" If these drugs' sort of general immune system suppression function is working against Covid-19, that would suggest the "Cytokine Storm" explanation of this Coronovirus' lethality?
More likely referring to hydroxychloroquine, mild immunosuppressive but also anti-viral effect, apparently. Other candidates are some of the anti-HIV drugs.

Hydroxychloroquine is an older anti-malarial, still used for certain destinations (most places it is no longer effective against malaria), I guess some pilots may have some. I'd keep hold of it if you do. I know that the UK has put it on export restriction as of a couple of days ago, this isn't a coincidence.

And yes, "Cytokine Storm" is a known lethal pathology for this disease.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 22:29
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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I saw this tip on a Mercedes forum about panic buying hand sanitiser https://benzglobal.org/viewtopic.php?f=2&p=338#p338

Gib/Spanish border operating normally this morning.
EasyJet and BA flights departed today and both airlines scheduled flights to UK airports still listed up until this coming Saturday. https://www.gibraltarairport.gi/cont...ve-flight-info
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 23:48
  #172 (permalink)  
 
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This virus is the best thing that ever happened to the national carriers. Whereas previously governments were inclined to let them go bust or folded into transnational entities, now suddenly there is largess, courtesy of the taxpayer.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.
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Old 16th Mar 2020, 23:55
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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No worries....



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Old 17th Mar 2020, 00:02
  #174 (permalink)  
 
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The ‘Chinese’ virus, no Donald I think it is the Worlds virus now.
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 00:39
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Boeing and Trump administration in talks about short-term aid as aviation reels from coronavirus
So it seems that someone is creating a link between the MAX problems (caused by Boeing?) and the virus. Hmmmm Seems to me that the Boeing problems are 99% Max and 1% virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coro...-term-aid.html

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Old 17th Mar 2020, 03:00
  #176 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Longtimer View Post
Boeing and Trump administration in talks about short-term aid as aviation reels from coronavirus
So it seems that someone is creating a link between the MAX problems (caused by Boeing?) and the virus. Hmmmm Seems to me that the Boeing problems are 99% Max and 1% virus.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/coro...-term-aid.html
Who gives a damn what the orange clown thinks, he's an imbecile who is likely to make this worse rather than better... as for Boeing, they will be bailed out by the US Government. The US don't have much choice with the amount of defense materiel tied to Boeing.
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 06:55
  #177 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
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Originally Posted by etudiant View Post
This virus is the best thing that ever happened to the national carriers. Whereas previously governments were inclined to let them go bust or folded into transnational entities, now suddenly there is largess, courtesy of the taxpayer.
Of course the airlines have plenty of company in this de facto renationalization, now that the EU has shown its complete inability to ensure supranational rules apply to critical items such as protective medical gear.
The dream of 'one world' has faded with the recognition that it is dangerous to rely on a global supply chain for essentials such as medicines. Imho Brexit is only the beginning of a return to national self reliance, which will bring tariffs and trade barriers.
Of course there will be less global travel in this new environment, so the national carriers will prosper, but on a smaller scale.
Capitalise the profits, socialise the losses.
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 07:58
  #178 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
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Originally Posted by gearlever View Post
No worries....


Exactly what the US did post Sept 11, subsidised their aviation industry while the rest of the world to pay themselves.....
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 08:07
  #179 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Paris
Age: 57
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SLF here, but probably with enough miles under my belt to have paid several salaries over the years.

I took two things from the OP (although both might not have been included:

The first is the risk to our health - and that risk seems global.

The second is the risk to livelihoods in the aviation industry.

I don't feel that there is anything wrong with addressing both. Of course there is a much bigger picture involved, but surely you professionals have the right to also consider the potential fallout when it comes knocking on your door with a message for you personally. That the individual knocking isn't carrying a scythe, but rather a P45 or its equivalent, doesn't mitigate the direct impact.

You people carry us hither and thither. Sometimes you may have to dig deep into your bank of skills in order to get us where we want to be.

I hope you all survive this with health intact and a career in place. The best of luck to all.
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Old 17th Mar 2020, 10:42
  #180 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Coast to Coast...
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Capitalise the profits, socialise the losses.
I'll use that for life!
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