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Flybe

Old 5th Apr 2018, 12:53
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FlyBE is an interesting company to me. They are the epitome of a regional small airline in what they do and with what they do they can't make money.
Other larger airlines hide their problems with regional routes or justify the regional routes being unprofitable by saying they feed in to their larger network.
I think FlyBE need 100 seater turboprops to make the model work and 90 to 100 seater turboprops don't exist.
Q400 can supposedly fit 90 at a 28" pitch but you will usually be paying a premium to fly instead of bus, car, train so you wouldn't tolerate a 28" pitch to fly from Scotland to London or whereever.
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Old 5th Apr 2018, 17:27
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If they think the "Beast from the East". is bad then they should wait till HS2 becomes operational. When the rail journey time is 3 hours or less, people tend to prefer the train, indeed Eurostar took a huge share of the London-Paris/Brussels air travel market. If the new Azumas on the East Coast are cleared for 140mph running (and the conventional signalling in place is designed to enable that), then anything London-Leeds/Newcastle/Edinburgh will lose out to rail.

A lot of domestic air travel will be hit but the other operators are much less dependent on domestic routes.

Personally, unless Flybe adopts a change of strategy to avoid competing with rail, I think they'll really struggle in the long-term.
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Old 6th Apr 2018, 10:27
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Quite frankly, airsouthwest, that response shows how LITTLE you know. Have you actually read the latest financial reports? I don't know where you get this notion from that you can get 2 x A319s for the price of the lease on the 195, I also don't get where you get the idea from that Christine wants to replace all the Q400s with ATRs. FAS is the only part that makes a guaranteed income? Nonsense, nothing is guaranteed, you also need to learn the difference between income, cash flow, added value, revenue & EBITDAR.
If you've read the reports (which you clearly haven't) you'll see that the business is performing very well, what isn't performing very well are the costs, and it is these costs that are hurting at the moment. The cost base is too high.
I think your problem is you are a typical employee who listens to Galley FM rumour but behind all that there's no real business brain behind the ears, because let's face it, if those things you listed were factually correct (but they're not) then any monkey could run an airline.
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Old 6th Apr 2018, 11:26
  #284 (permalink)  
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Actually he’s not far off regarding the leases. The 195 were costing 180k a month each whilst at the same time you could get an A320 for about 110k. A 319 would be even cheaper, no doubt.
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Old 6th Apr 2018, 12:04
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Yes but he said two A319s, Chesty, however you dress it up or down it's still factually incorrect.
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Old 6th Apr 2018, 12:09
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I don't see why they don't do like the rest of the airline world and just order a new fleet of Q400 on lease reducing maintenance costs and unexpected downtime costs for unreliable hardware.
Lease costs are low because the lease company retains title and can repo the plane when/if the leasee defaults. They're not even in some remote location where it isn't easy to repo a plane if need be.
They must be tied up in knots with their existing lease agreements.
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Old 6th Apr 2018, 12:12
  #287 (permalink)  
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Didn’t think I’d need to spoon feed you but a 319 costs roughly two thirds of a 320. Do the maths as they say. I’ll even round it up to 120 for a 320 making a 319 about 80.

80 x 2 = 2 x 319 which = less than one 195.
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Old 6th Apr 2018, 12:32
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Well, Chesty, current prices or the price of an A319 back in 2005? Either way where do you get your figures from? Do you ACTUALLY know what the lease costs were or are you as guilty as he is spouting Galley FM and nonsense? Either way, the company knows all about the high lease costs of the 195s, it's not a secret, so when he professes he knows how to fix the company but Flybe doesn't he's talking bollocks.
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Old 6th Apr 2018, 12:39
  #289 (permalink)  
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Prices at the time the Embraer lease was “negotiated”. I know.

I’m not commenting on his ability fix Flybe just informing you that, in this instance, he is correct and it is you who is factually wrong.

I’m sure the regular flow of management in and out of Flybe do know how to fix the company but they don’t. Why is that?
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Old 6th Apr 2018, 13:09
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I agree about the fact, lot of cost are link to really bad bad deal for all aircraft lease ...

Management must be tied with it, otherwise they would had fixed it already ...

All 195 will leave in 2019.
But I suspect the dash deal are crap as well
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Old 7th Apr 2018, 16:54
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To help settle this ego contest on leasing rates, here are some figures from 2015, then updated in 2017.

As always with figures, you can make them say what suites you, and one could argue that you could get 2 319s for the price of a 190/195, but certainly old knackered frames with questionnable reliability and reduced seating layout. Then from a commercial/product point of view...why would you?

Conversly, you can get 2 old 190/195s for the price of a newest 320.

Interestingly, ATRs can be quite expensive too.

http://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=587137

Aircraft Values, And Lease Pricing - Spring 2017 - Airliners.net
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Old 7th Apr 2018, 17:16
  #292 (permalink)  
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Ego contest. Good one.

No E195 on your list, ergo, irrelevant. It’s also from 2015/2017. The Embraer deal was done in 2004/5, ergo, irrelevant. Not much certainty there.

Thanks for playing.
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Old 7th Apr 2018, 17:28
  #293 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks for briging facts to the party, ego.

Btw E195 is a E190-200 where the E190 is a E190-100. But you knew that. Enjoy life at Jet2.
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Old 7th Apr 2018, 17:38
  #294 (permalink)  
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Of course. I guess you think you’ll pay the same. Why don’t you go and find some figures from 2004/5. You know, just coz you seem to be concerned about facts.

I do thanks. Half the hours for 150% of the money. Although I did my first 4 sector day for 5 years last month, that was a bit of a struggle but it was good to relive the old days.
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Old 7th Apr 2018, 20:07
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Originally Posted by Chesty Morgan
Of course. I guess you think you’ll pay the same. Why don’t you go and find some figures from 2004/5. You know, just coz you seem to be concerned about facts.
How about you get out there and find them yourself, instead of mumbling empty sentences?

Back in 2004/2005 the 319 was in very high demand with easyjet's first mega order (100 firm). Even with the eJet being the new shinny kid on the regional block at that time, I very much doubt you could get 2 airbuses for the price of a 195.

If this is your claim, well, go and prove it then.
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Old 7th Apr 2018, 21:15
  #296 (permalink)  
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Ringy old chap I knew back then what they were, if I didn't then I wouldn’t be posting. I don’t need to go and find them again now nor do I need to prove what they were to you.

Don’t like it? Tough.
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Old 8th Apr 2018, 21:12
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I wouldn’t use easyJet’s deal as a comparator . Stelios did a fantastic deal back then, no one else was buying aircraft.

There’s no way that an outfit the size of Flybe could or ever will be able to do deals at the rates that Easyjet can.

Easyjet fuel bill for one week in August is more than Flybe’s market Cap’
Different world.
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Old 9th Apr 2018, 07:05
  #298 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chesty Morgan
Ringy old chap I knew back then what they were, if I didn't then I wouldn’t be posting. I don’t need to go and find them again now nor do I need to prove what they were to you.

Don’t like it? Tough.
Just unsubstanciated claims then, and rockbottom credibility.

When it comes to hot air, I'd rather go somewhere warm.
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Old 9th Apr 2018, 07:18
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Originally Posted by Nil further
I wouldn’t use easyJet’s deal as a comparator . Stelios did a fantastic deal back then, no one else was buying aircraft.

There’s no way that an outfit the size of Flybe could or ever will be able to do deals at the rates that Easyjet can.

Easyjet fuel bill for one week in August is more than Flybe’s market Cap’
Different world.
Nil, I'm not suggesting for one second that the two deals could/should be compared, for exactly the reasons you're quoting.

I'm just sayng that back in those days, an A319 rate would have been fairly high due its high demand on the market, hence suggesting one could have had 2 319s for a price of one eJet is a very audacious claim, especially without figures to support it.

There's a concensus that the eJet deal was bad and company fleet policy has confirmed this for a few years now, I'm just reacting to some cuckooland types of "facts".
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Old 9th Apr 2018, 07:43
  #300 (permalink)  
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Of course they’re unsubstantiated. The figures are from nearly 15 years ago. Do you think I wrote them down in my diary just in case you didn’t believe me years later?! However, that doesn’t change the facts, even if you don’t believe them.

Unless, of course, you did find the figures you want from 2004/5 to prove otherwise.
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