Some more considerations.


A few days ago the Ukrainian government and armed forces announced a non-flying zone regime above the rebel-controlled territories. This is because they were thinking that Russian military airplanes were flying there (actually, they were not). Could it happen that a Buk (SAM) military personnel pulled the trigger thinking that it was a russian plane breaking this warning? Why not, IMHO. Paranoia is in the red zone, everything may happen.

N.B. Buk systems (SA-17), as well as SAM-10/12 are regular arms of the Ukrainian army, none of the unit was smuggled by the Russians into the Ukraine territory to support the rebels. The rebels just do not need such systems. All their threats, such as attack Su-25s and helicopters fly low enough and could be shot with man-carried devices.


The rebels (again, they are the Ukrainians, not the Russians) could do it as well, theoretically. There were the rumors that they took some Buks from the army personnel who left their bases and dispersed. But this alternative seems less likely for me, because such systems are not easy to operate. Second, before running away from a military base and leaving such arms to separatists, the (Ukr.) army would definitely make them inoperable (just a matter of a hammer and 1 min to do the job). Third, the Ukrainian General Attorney has withdrawn statements (yesterday evening) that the rebels got Buks.



Statements here in this thread addressing the Russians to shoot the plane down from their territory are beyond the common sense. They could only do it with a huge C-300, which are easily traceable, visible, etc.. For me it sounds the same unlikely as if a USN ship would do it while in the Black Sea. And Russia is the least interested side in doing such a thing.


So, at the moment the option that seems the most likely to me (IMHO) is that the Ukrainian army did it erroneously.

@skridlov
Well, actually, it is supposed to be far harder to make such a mistake from a warship with far more radar and radio equipment, satellite support, etc. By contrast, the mobile SAM operator has none of it, is mostly on his own, especially in a proxy war, does not have other defenses that the warship has. If he hesitates when he should be shooting, he will be bombed to dust.

But, logic never is an obstacle to good propaganda story and winding up masses to call for blood in support of our beloved leaders, who in face of a "grave threat" suddenly can play heroes and not seem like retards that they are.

While I wouldn't be surprised if the rebels had shot it down, wasn't there an 'intercepted phone call' proving that the Syrians had fired nerve gas at civilians in Syria before it turned out that it was actually fired by our rebel mates there who later turned out to be an offshoot of al Qaeda and invaded Iraq?

All we know for sure at this point is that every side is pushing propaganda which supports their interests. I don't trust any of them.

U.S. intelligence confirms pro-Russian rebels shot down Malaysian plane


U.S. intelligence confirms pro-Russian rebels shot down Malaysian plane - The Washington Post


Obama to speak on Ukraine

A Van,

The missile was launched from or near Snizhne, Donetsk Oblast. There are no Ukrainian forces in Snizhne, only separatist rebel forces. Snizhne is about 10 KM to the southeast of Grabovo.

'A Van', for the Ukrainians to be responsible 'erroneously' there would need to be some target they actually intended to hit with such a missile. I don't believe there is any credible evidence of any such target, despite eager but absurd suggestions it was aimed at Putin.
A hefty weight of evidence already points to this being a cock-up by separatists. Why fake evidence of an *accidental* shoot-down? Russia's role looks like the old Cold War coat-holding role that CIA types also so often played: archetypally a briefcase full of banknotes and a few greasy spare parts, on the assumption that the beneficiaries of this largesse don't have it in them to screw up so catastrophically that a host of enraged non-ally nations start demanding a full reckoning.

SadPole observed:
 

"Well, actually, it is supposed to be far harder to make such a mistake from a warship with far more radar and radio equipment, satellite support, etc. By contrast, the mobile SAM operator has none of it, is mostly on his own, especially in a proxy war, does not have other defenses that the warship has. If he hesitates when he should be shooting, he will be bombed to dust. "

I didn't make the point adequately. If the USS Vincennes and its supposedly highly trained crew managed to make this mistake (a couple of big assumptions there) it's considerably less surprising that a similar mistake could be made by intoxicated knuckle-draggers using Soviet era hardware.

BTW roughly equivalent number of victims killed in current Gaza "operation", including children. But that's "business as usual" so less newsworthy.

To Roving:


First, according to the URL you put "The U.S. official cautioned that the assessment is not final and that U.S. analysts are still investigating".



Second, I wonder how such a statement could be proved. First, the rebels and the regime army units are mixed in the region - one village is in the hands of one side, the neighboring one is in the hands of the other, and so on. Second, the Buks are mobile. Thus, to say such things for sure would only be possible if the (independent third party) intelligence is chasing and monitoring the activity of the particular Buk complex. This is only possible on the ground. Neither AWACS, nor satellites could do that. They could only roughly estimate the point of fire and the type of a missile.
Third, if this is coming from the same US officials that earlier were saying that the homeless Ukrainian refugees were relocated to the neighboring/adjacent Russian region to breathe the fresh mountain air (actually all this area is flat and dirty cause of coal mines) or that the US should move its fleet to the shore of Belarus (which well is isolated from the sea), then arguments make no sense.

Those are significant words.

For those suggesting anyone other than pro-Russian rebels shot down MH17, please could you give me a plausible explanation why immediately after the crash, a rebel leader went live to boast about shooting down a Ukrainian military transport, and this was immediately repeated by 2 Russian news agencies.

These internet announcements were rapidly erased, but too late for them to be stopped going around the world.

Intercept calls between rebel leaders confirm they thought they had downed a military transport, and their consternation when they found they had made a dreadful mistake.

It was clearly a massive error, but only tin-foil hat comspiracy theorists are mad enough to think this was planned by the Ukrainians and faked.

The video I posted earlier of the Buk launcher with a missile missing was taken near Krasnodon on the border with Russia. Russia has sent military convoys into Ukraine through this town, July 12 was the latest one and may well have included this launcher. The launcher was heading back towards Russia.

I've been watching Ukraine very closely since it all kicked off and many on here have not.

Putin is in this up to his eyeballs, even although he's been trying to keep it at arm's length.

Fitter - +1. I've been saying this for over 24 hours now.

PS - If you see any internet conspiracy theorists ranting about a guy called Strelkov, ignore them. This bloke is the DPR's so-called Minister of Defence and is saying the plane was full of dead bodies and that Ukraine deliberately crashed the plane to harm the rebels' cause.

I don't speak Russian but am told the following is a report with more recordings of the rebels discussing their plans for the Buk system.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YgdqdklrqDA#t=99

A Van,

Dear Ivan, it may be said that the lady doth protestesth too much.

What you say is plausible but to go on to exonerate the Russians and blame the Ukrainians is too much.

A high altitude SAM is needed by the one in case of attack by the other. To say the rebels don't need it as the Ukrainians only use SU25 is nonsense as they might fly higher. The Russians may pose a high level threat either directly or in support.

So anyone could have done it. The question therefore remains who and why.

Here's a version with English subtitles https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MVAOTWPmMM4

That's about as far as Obama is prepared to go so far. He has just stated that the US is sure the aircraft was downed by a SAM from rebel-held territory. They are not confirming who fired, from which system, or why, at the moment.
He has also just stated that the US knows the Russians are supporting the rebels with sophisticated weapons and training (and that further sanctions can be expected as a result). He is not prepared to connect the two statements at the moment.

He is all but saying that the separatists shot down MH17, but is refusing to confirm such.

Why? He must be waiting for more absolute evidence, perhaps copies of the tapes from air/ground/space intelligent sources. Or the evidence comes from something too secret to be reviled.

Then again, knowing President Obama, who knows?

He was quite clear that he was specifically not "all but saying", but did intend to reveal more as soon as it could be confirmed.

Having dabbled in Intelligence, your other points are probably correct. They are probably seeking more definite evidence. They also may have confirmation from sources they wish to keep secret, and are using this data to seek other non/less-covert sources for the same evidence. For example, hypothetically, they may have evidence from spy satellites that show exactly who was driving the SAM TELAR, but they'd like to get his own Facebook posts to reveal same.

All you ever wanted to know - and more - about the BUK system

9K37/9K37M1/9K317 Buk M1/M2 / SA-11/17 Gadfly/Grizzly / C????????? ???????? ???????? ???????? 9?37/9?317 ??? ?/?1/?2

showing some with very simple operator consoles.

They can track and shoot 4 at a time so the other airliners following MH17 were very lucky.

That very well could be the reason. Either way it is pretty clear that the Ukrainian rebels shot down MH17 accidentally, thinking that they had shot down a Ukrainian Air Force cargo aircraft.

Of course there will be those that will refuse to believe that no matter how much evidence will be released. Such are the days we live in.

Deadly Coincidence.

Last November (2013) the then Ukraine Government decided to strengthen ties with Russia (and away from the West). A few month later in March that Ukraine Government was overthrown. Now we have a pro-US Government installed in Kiev, using Blackwater troops, and against Russia.

Last Week the EU told the US that they would not re-sanction Russia. A few days later we have this MH17 incident, which most likely will lead to sanctions against Russia from the EU.

... step by step it seems a policy is being carried out and events manipulated.

Is it possible that Blackwater pulled the button ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...d-Donetsk.html

WillowRun 6-3: despite all the sophisticated billion usd technology on board USS Vincennes, they lacked up-to-date civilian ac schedules, and they lacked the ability to call it on its assigned frequency. A simple radio, which costs nothing, and publicly available information about departure time, and frequencies, could have prevented both disasters. It doesnt take much sophistication to call an aircraft to confirm its a civilian airliner.

I watched President Obama via CNN and there was discussion afterwards with 'experts'.

One of the experts explained that every radar system, as used for example on the Buk, has its own unique signature.

The US has the signature.

That may explain the video, if accurate, of the Buk being transported, less one missile, in the direction of the Russian border.

The rebels would not want the West to recover a Buk with that signature.

Neither would Putin.

Moto, agree. And if the suspect Buk has been sent back to Russia it is about concealing its origins, like whose inventory it was as on, whose inventory is it on now? Was it ever taken off inventory and if so, when?

Once over the border, "what missile launcher?"

On another thread - "we weren't there, and if we were there it wasn't us."

deptrai,
So true!

I find it strange in the extreme that this was a Malaysian Airlines aircraft. What are the chances of two coincidental hull losses of a type never been lost before in the space of a few months?

I'll say no more about the Vincennes/Iran Air than this. Willow Run's attempt to discriminate between two circumstantially different examples of grotesque incompetence is nothing more than sophistry. The fact that the outcomes should have both been quite different is something no doubt shared by the Vincennes' crew and the rabble operating the Buk system - who thought they'd brought down a Ukranian Antonov military transport.

I recall, some time in the early 90s, being shown a "USS Vincennes" baseball cap being proudly displayed in the home of a serving US Naval Intelligence officer of vocally Christian conviction. I still have no idea why an otherwise decent man should have been able to reconcile this crime with his beliefs, much less advertise it.

To Moto:

You wrote: "Facts are: a rebel pro-russian comander has claimed a shotdown via tweeter/facebook (don't remember now), promptly erased soon.. "

This is just not serious. Here in Russia people are surprised how non-professionally the pieces of data were manipulated.
First, all those rebel commanders (just in case, I have no much sympathy to them) do not use tweeter/facebook and other "kids stuff". I saw a TV interview with one of them and he clearly stated that. Every hacker can write "on their behalf". Regarding the voice conversation, it was assembled of fragments and actually they spoke about the plane which was about 100 km from MH.

What we have now is that
1. Mr. Obama surprisingly soon stated that the missile was launched by the rebels. Without clear technical data such as sensor records (with the proved device accuracy) these are just words.
2. The Russian defense ministry speaker announced they they recorded yesterday the radar activity of the Ukrainian missile complexes in the area (actually there are 3 Buks and 2 C-200/300 that could reach the plane). The same as above: with no accurate coordinates and specific "radar signature" (to be compared with those in database), this does not mean much. The question remains who actually operated the missile complex.
Thus, I am becoming skeptical that the truth would be uncovered. Only if the people involved start talking/wistleblowing.

If I recall my NATO Int Officer course stuff correctly, the US may already have that Buk's radar signature on the record somewhere. Of course, if the Rooskies have any brains, they will have (if they did) given the rebels a 'clean' one. It may also be possible to eliminate all the Ukranian ones, but I doubt that Putin will officially believe that.....

Keep it up A Van !...jokes on Friday are traditional on Pprune...in fact they have their own thread in Jet Blast!

African Skies

A good point indeed , the real concern for Malaysia is the impact this bad luck/bad karma has in their main, ie Asian market , where such things are taken very seriously indeed.

this is a tragedy but in its way is an accident because the Ukaine irregulars (described in one of the intercept transcripts as -the Cossacks) recklessly launched such a lethal missile without any rules of engagement or cross checking. In that respect I wonder if MH17 was contrailing , if it was NOT it would be far easier to make the mistake that is was smaller/lower and not an airliner because they always leave those white trails . well on hot dry day over the Ukraine plains 330 might not be high enough for condensation. Just a thought and certainly not an excuse

Terrorists with missiles
 

The Russians were cock a hoop when the Donetsk People's Republic claimed to have captured a Bukh battery from the Ukrainians only a few days ago:

Donetsk militia takes control of Ukrainian anti-air installation - News - World - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video

They were also delighted when the DPR claimed a couple of kills 2 days ago:

Self-defense fighters downed two Ukrainian strike aircraft ? Donetsk People's Republic - News - World - The Voice of Russia: News, Breaking news, Politics, Economics, Business, Russia, International current events, Expert opinion, podcasts, Video

If you claim to have Bukh SAMs and claim to have shot down enemy aircraft previously, don't be surprised if someone thinks you did it.

Radars operate on a nominal frequency. Some freaks are very precise. Depending on design and manufacture some will display discrete difference s.

Everyone could calm down, I guess myself included. This case will not be solved nor investigated based on social media indices or rhetoric slogans from anyone. As usual, it might take years, but a proper independent investigation will eventually unfold facts and probable events.

The NOTAMS are genuine
 

The NOTAM is genuine.......my company flew that route and I have been able to download the archived briefing pack. The FIR brief lists a whole range of coordinates and I plotted them. Surprise, surprise, they plot an area directly above the conflict zone. And there was NO upper limit specified.

MAS ran the gauntlet and they paid the price. This shows a wide spread failure in their management. Their mechanisms failed to identify a conflict area, and the pilots didn't recognize the RZ......perhaps because they got given a massive briefing pack which contained masses of superfluous information due to lack of filtration.

Number of overflights by airlines in the last 7 days over the shoot-down area :

Malaysia Airlines MH17: Lufthansa überflog Ost-Ukraine 56 Mal - SPIEGEL ONLINE
http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/bild-981813-726883.html

http://worldairops.com/public/UkraineBriefing.png

Previous image was a little large.

Briefing for Ukraine Airspace 18JUL is at:

http://worldairops.com/public/WAO_Uk...efing18JUL.pdf

Airways
 

It is not the airlines that open and close airways.

@ alpha83

What is the source of this NOTAM? I only find that on internet forums. And it is contrary to what EUROCONTROL published: https://www.eurocontrol.int/news/mh-17-ukraine


Can the moderators please enforce that quotes from other websites have a link to the source. It's a real bad habit on pprune.

Very true; but the airlines can choose their routings. Nobody forces them.

Please excuse me if I try to clear my head on this, but I'm sure people here will correct my thinking. I have some experience of the ground side of Air Defence and also Int at MoD, so I'm not just an old ATCO.

The Exam questions in my mind are ... Who could have done this, and Why?

Russia.
Motive. They have not been attacked on their own soil, so no reason to target any aircraft.
Opportunity. All the kit you would ever need.
Rationale? Unknown, unless imagining some convoluted tin-foil hat plot.
Excuses? Very unlikely this was an erroneous engagement by whatever the PVO is called this week.

Ukraine.
Motive. Minimal, unless they did it and were trying to blacken the separatists.
Opportunity. Suitably equipped.
Rationale? None. Any idea that they engaged MH17 to discredit the rebels is ludicrous.
Excuses? Ineptitude has been mentioned. But a target at FL330 heading east is hardly a target, even if they had SAM systems in a suitable location with appropriate C3.

Separatists.
Motive. Apparently shoot at anything, air or ground, that potentially interferes with their desire to take over Eastern Ukraine.
Opportunity. Lack of "adult" C3, apart from assumed input from Russia. Systems acquired from takeover of Ukrainian bases, including Buk launchers (and associated vehicles?)
Rationale? Rational behaviour by the separatists (with or without Russian support/assistance) has not been in evidence since this started.
Excuses? Inept, hyper-active, lacking responsible leadership and command structure?

"I rest my case, My Lord"

(PS ... i'm not wasting time chasing bits of unverified information, or anything like that. I'm trying to get back to basics in my mind, and work from there)

Most of those consoles on that kit are system status indicators, if they are green you're good to go. The rest are controls for the displays and signal processing system for the radars or manual overrides to allow the system to be operated in the face of ECM or minor equipment system failures. If any of those systems break, you will need an experienced technician to fix them and if you're operating with friendly air forces and in an ECM environment experienced operators are a must, however the actual engagement sequence of this system from the layout of the kit is very likely to be very similar to that of most other Russian mobile SAM systems as they are all heavily automated. To engage a target once the system is fully run up, three or four actions by the man of the left after he has picked up the target on the search radar, three or four by the guy on the right hand console, missile away. Seeing that the kit has been kicking around since the mid 1980's it is very likely that there are plenty of ex Soviet / Russian / Ukrainian armed forces personnel about on the rebel side who could operate this system to a standard that would allow an aircraft at 33,000 ft to be engaged. The question is where did the missile system come from?