Sabenaboy you are getting silly. 47 you say not 7?

What is the safest course of action. What a daft question. Of course you must apply common sense to everything.

CB at destination. So many variables but in the simplest case take extra fuel. Avoid. Hold. Wait for the right moment.

MEL - have you dispatched or not? Is there engineering cover down route? etc etc

Don't make me out to be some by the book big girl who isn't a REAL pilot hand flying all the way with one eye closed and one hand behind my back because I support the decision of experts.

Look. Whatever. You are a hero. You fly. I will sit on the ground. I am sure a man of your capabilities will have no problems gliding the bird back in for tea, medals and a public parade.

P.S I do agree with some of what you are saying but I think you are not reading my posts properly. I can no longer be bothered now. Goodbye.

NASA ash cloud visible or invisible
 

Profit Max #770

From the top of page 11 of the NASA incident report:


Sounds like NASA's encounter was with a visible ash cloud.

Regards

S

Because ATC can not give an IFR clearance as the airspace is regulated to zero flow which means no IFR clearance can be given to enter the relevant airspace. VFR is still allowed of course as the airspace is not closed.

Surely the point is that the risks are not known to any degree of precision and there are not procedures in place to deal with them - other than the measures currently taken. It's a continuously changing situation. If I were running an airline I wouldn't want to base my decision on whether one gung-ho individual were willing to risk his life flying through or near volcanic ash. And I wouldn't want to risk reducing large number of jet engines to scrap metal even if nothing actually hit the ground in an unfortunate manner.

I'm no fan of big government, still less of Gordon McBroun, but to see current measures as manifestations of the nanny state, or of dreaded eurodomination (eek!), and to want to key decisions in current conditions left to individual airlines, or individual pilots, seem lunatic to me.

Remind me not to fly with you any time soon.

Well this could be a reaction to the suing culture that prevails in Euroland now, now let me think, where did that start...????? I do believe it was the "Good ol' U S of A"........

There's no room for macho in aviation, duuuude.....

Ozaub wrote:

"Sadly nobody was interested when Australian scientists developed a volcanic ash detector ten years ago".

Down here in Australasia/South Pacific we are surrounded by active volcanoes (Yassur in Vanuatu is in permanent eruption). That's why Australia paid attention to this problem. But - as Ozaub hints - nobody has ever been interested in properly studying the problem or spending money on mitigating technologies and strategies. 'Fly round the bugger' has been the simple response. Yet we have plenty of evidence that volcanic ejecta are unlike other forms of dust, are much more damaging than them, that they are hard to detect when invisible to the naked eye, and yet can be damaging even when invisible (Australian aviators in PNG know this very well).

If anything good comes out of the disastrous social and economic consequences of this natural event it will be that, at last, attention and resources will be applied to the many scientists around the world who have spent decades devoted to an underfunded and unappreciated cottage industry concerned with the impacts of volcanic activity on aircraft operations.

As you can see, as usual, it is not a conspiracy but a c*** up, and one that was embedded by generations of industry and government decision makers resulting in a no-win legacy to the hapless current generation who have to try and deal with this situation. Feel for them, don't yell at them - or, at least, not until they show signs of ducking the issue again when this all dies down.

KLM 777
 

Just spotted this lone KLM 777 coming in to Amsterdam. Anybody know why they did this?
http://www.radarvirtuel.com/
Unfortunately you wont be able to see this now, but it was PAE-AMS KLM777 and the only aircraft in the swathe of grey ash warning area.

Just noticed on http://www.radarvirtuel.com/ the following aircraft overhead PMI. If this information is accurate how are TUI operating Las Palmas > Gothenburg through the ash cloud?


Flight Number : BLX284
Company : TUIfly Nordic
ICAO Hex Code : 4A8142
Reg Code : SE-DZK
Model : Boeing - B737-804
Departure : LPA - Las Palmas De Gran Canaria, Gando - Spain
Arrival : GOT - Gothenburg, Landvetter - Sweden
Last Message : 7:38:59 UTC
Latitude : 39.36214
Longitude : 2.79405
Altitude : 10972 m - 35997 ft
Ground Speed : 867 km/h - 539 mph - 468 knots
Vertical Speed : -20 m/min - -66 ft/min (DESCENT)
Squawk : 5371
Heading : 67º

What a can of worms, I mean in a flash, ash and trash, rehash, no cash, bash maybe crash.
Off the thread slightly but have on numerious occasions flown in and out of some hectic sand storms/dust filled air space in west and north africa and yes there was (eventually) evidence of pitting etc. on LE, nacelles and fan blades-nobody seemed to worry too much!
Guess we living in changing times where it's easier to say no, than well lets take a good look and just maybe....

Volcano and Airline Staff
 

Good evening from my hotel room in China. Its the end of my sixth day of a two day trip with no sign of it getting any shorter. Im considering starting the long trip to Ireland by road. I cant tell you how lonely it is being isolated from your family in these circumstances. I was speaking to a couple last night that our flying to NY to get a cruise to Europe
Rumours are now around that the airlines will have to look at letting go staff during these times. That really scares me. My job is long haul out of London and things dont look like improving for a while.
No indication from the airline yet but the mood in the hotel bar from all the foreign crews is not good.
I keep hearing people sayings its great to hav a ew days off. This is serious. We could have crews losing their jobs.

Tom

We're with you in spirit - can't be easy.

Car hire could be a problem - and the ferries are increasingly booked up. Then there's always a taxi. Rumour has it that a well known actor spent €3,500 on a taxi across much of Northern Europe.

KLM 737 test flight indicates no volcanic ash risk
 

Well..hmm... based on the information i collected from various science sources, i expect to be laid off by the end of next week (major airline)

Another One...
 

Kl7421 744

This too shall pass and you will look back on these days with fondnest when you're flogging along putting it all back together.

KLM had to divert 7 planes to Düsseldorf on Thursday evening. Dutch Airspace was closed for ALL flights (even VFR) at that time, while the German wasn't. Today they are ferrying all of them back to Amsterdam.

Re the post from #820 So you think the aussies, arabs etc are enjoying the lack of competition? Emirates have 40000 stranded passengers ( as of yesterday), and are paying to keep more than 5000 of those in accomodation and sandwiches in Dubai. Some of the ME airlines have had to cancel routes as far away as Australia because their aircraft are stuck on the ground in Europe and they have no planes to service "unaffected" routes. Qantas have cancelled all flights to Europe for the third day running. And while a few pilots on this forum are enjoying their time at home with the kids, I have Australian family stuck in godawful parts of England who are missing out on their kid's wedding at home. There is little silver lining in this, unless you operate the Eurostar or live under the Heathrow flight path.

Whats the actual measured data
 

As I have not read all posts I'm sorry if this has been covered before.

1 Has any research aircraft / UAV flown and measured the concentration of dust in the different areas around the volcano. I fail to understand how an area from 85 east to 55 west and 70 north to 40 south can all have dangerous concentrations of dust. As an astronomer last night the sky at my home in Essex was the clearest I've seen it in months.

2 Of course understand that directly downwind for a certain distance that there will be danger however what is the dispersal rate of the dust. Where I live in the UK every summer we have dust fall out from the Desert and nobody seems bothered by that.

3 What is the validation of the computer model used to show the rate of contamination / dispersion of the dust. i.e. how valid are these predictions. Somebody please tell me that this is a tested and proved computer model and not just a met mans whim!!!

4 I expect the 'Be safe police / regulators ' will jump on my mail but I'm schedule to fly to the far east on Tuesday and if I'm cancelled I want to know it was for the right reason and not some government nerd covering his butt.

***

One thing is for sure - if the authorities don't quickly get a grip on the technical side of this ie. what are the concentrations, where "exactly" is the ash (not what their model predicts), and what is safe, there will be many pilots out of work in the very near future......... just consider the effect if this goes on for weeks or months

As well as pilots many assciated jobs and aviation service companies will be hit and, of course, the wider economy.

On the bright side all the greenies who want to stop air travel might wind their necks in a bit particularly if they've been stuck abroad at a "conference"!!

Whats the actual measured data - Orionsbelt ......... exactly !!

I completely agree with you. The authorities are being so paranoid careful that they are doing more damage than they are trying to prevent. At least you are in a hotel room with a bar, and I am luckily at home, and I fear for the industry too just like you do. The skittish authorities sitting at home enjoying a weekend off ought to go sleep in Heathrow or Frankfurt in a cot for six days with no shower and money run out, in order to contemplate that life always has risks. Thunderstorms have claimed a lot more lives than ash clouds, so the next step is close the airspace all summer because a thunderstorm may pop up unexpectedly? Icing, thunderstorms, unexpected fog, etc, etc, we have to deal with it, not hide in the bunker. Every now and then a Titanic has the lousy luck to hit an iceberg, while a thousand other ships reach safe harbor. These authorities would never have let Columbus leave port. Oh yes, while we're at it, when you do finally get on, take off your shoes and underwear and no water or shampoo allowed, and give me that nail file. We are legislating and regulating and restricting an essential service out of business.

theres another, KLM7421 at FL100, B747 approaching Amsterdam from Curacao

Is actually an positioning flight from DUS to AMS right now in FL100 inbound EHAM RW06.

Also the B777 was an position flight from DUS to AMS as KL7461.

KLM was doing one testflight with an B737 in the morning on the AMS-DUS-AMS routing which was positive without any affect to the aircraft. So they are now starting to ferry there stranded aircrafts from DUS back to AMS:

Greetings

Start flying!
 

KLM, like other EU company`s, wants to fly. The beancounters, pennlickers, civil servants are not taken scientific studies from NASA into account. CAA and Eurocontrol are slow working government bodies.

Aircraft avoid visible ashclouds or known positions of clouds. Dispersing ash over the globe are not visible ashclouds and do not influence aircraft performance as demonstrated by aircraft returning to their base.

When Pinatubo and other dangerous vulcanos errupted the airspace was NOT closed. Warnings for air traffic were NOTAMed. Those aerosol clouds dispersed around the world and affected global weather.The density of the aerosols was and is not large enough to affect a/c engines. Aircraft kept on flying.

ditto, I thought it was great initially, few beers, couple of days off etc.....the cold light of day is emerging and if this is not resolved by mid next week, staff imo are at risk, me too. Also my heart goes out to crews stuck worldwide in hotels not knowing when they are going to get home. Even when this is resolved re flights back working again there will be chaos in airports with folk trying to get on flights.:uhoh:

Hi,

http://i41.tinypic.com/e0gwtg.jpg

depleted population?
 

Quote: #849
For example, in the UK, around 3,000 people die in road accidents caused by motor cars each day....

That is about a million per year. We just can't sustain that loss!

You meant 'worldwide' I think

A nice break?
 

What many here don't seem to understand is that if this lunacy goes on for much longer many of us are going to get a real long break from flying...:sad:

And if you take the risk and fly and it all goes horribly wrong then some people:
a: Will never fly again
and
b: SLF will avoid that company like the plague and it'll go bust.


Rock & hard place come to mind.

BD

Main worry
 

:sad:The KL test flight can only give some partial indications and further prolonged tests will have to be done before any conclusion is reached.
Flying in volcanic ash for 30 mins or 1.5 hour can have opposite effects and results.

The invisble ash is 100% real over our sky: a clear blue sky does not mean anything in volcanic ash terms, you can check your car and you can clearly see the layer of golden dust if you live under the cloud. Up in the air there is a lot more of that fine abrasive invisible material. High atmospheric pressure means the cloud is not moving much, weather did not help at all.

The main worry now remains the duration of this eruption and the neighbour Katla.
The present activity could last several months and, even if winds will change direction and ash emissions will reduce, European air traffic might be intermittently disrupted again for long periods. Frightening.
We must hope that this volcano calms down asap, the biggest danger remains Katla which could activate within 2 years if it follows the historical pattern.


At this stage nobody really knows what is going to happen :eek: Nature is in full charge.

Now they just need to find lots of crews and pax that will also fly through it.

I glad to see there is a good spirit out there.
Best of luck to us all.
I think you're right. Well get things running again and add this one our story book.

Tom

Actual data compared with modelling
 

Could somebody clarify what data decisions are presently being made on?

From this thread I have gathered that the ash is not visible to the naked eye, except in very high concentrations. What levels of ash contamination are visible to satellite imagery?

Having got down to level below which it is not visible on satellite imagery, I presume everything else is based on computer modelling. The longer the eruptions continue, the further the ash spreads and the more complex the weather patterns have been to disperse the ash. Therefore the accuracy of the model will get gradually worse, because there is being little or no verification of the predicted data with measurement.

So I am assuming that once the ash is no longer detectable on satellite imagery, the accuracy of any other predictions is gradually getting less.

Have I totally misread the situation?

Phil

death by traffic
 

Quote: #849
For example, in the UK, around 3,000 people die in road accidents caused by motor cars each day....

Think he means deaths involving all motor vehicles per YEAR in the UK. It's about 10 a day including pedestrians etc.

Orionsbelt
 

#864. Excellent post. The big problem that we face is that the government agencies which started this hare running have to find a face-saving way to extract themselves from the mess. Meanwhile the worldwide economic damage is incalculable. Jobs will be lost, businesses will be lost. Lives also will be lost.

IMHO this is not about bravery or cowardice which, as has already been written, has no place in aviation. It is about judgment.

DHL 757 flying now over England
 

A DHL 757 flying at 4,000 feet right now over Leicester
Speed 265mph
Callsign: BCS100F

A test cargo flight?

You arent the only one stuck, plenty of us in this boat together! Yea it is very serious especially since its still erupting and no end in sight, job security is a huge worry, may have to have a few more beers in the bar, think how to apply for a job on a cruise liner.

KLM test flight
 

The test flight has only proven there's no immidate threat to aircraft flying through such dilluted clouds of volcanic ash!!!

Anyone with enough common sense could have told you before the flight.

Even after boroscoping these engines afer the testflight would not show anything but that doesn't mean it's all ok.

After longer periods of operating airplanes and their engines with these conditions it could very well have effect!!!!!

But the good news is that all aircraftengines are monitored via a health monitoring system.

So if after some time residue will start building up on some engineparts it will be picked up as the engine will start over time to run hotter and less fuel efficient!

So I think it should be a commercial choice to fly or not to fly as engines will last maybe only 3000 hours on wing rather then 5000 hours but there is no immidiate danger!!!

Orionsbelt!

Well said! :ok:

worrying times indeed - but if the airline industry starts to cut staff it won't be just crew that are affected will it? :rolleyes: