This is all very strange. The data available from Eurocontrol show the ash cloud is over Ireland and moving towards North Western UK. If the data was enough to close the airspace this morning; nothing has changed.

Has this been an over reaction on the part of the IAA causing a knock-on effect with the UK CAA regarding Northern Ireland?

Have the airlines put pressure on the IAA/CAA ?

Who feels comfortable being the first to launch at 1300?

Next chart should be out in 10mins

F14,

It maybe worth reading at least the last page before you post. Goto Fleecy's link previous page and all will be revealed. ;)

IAA Message
 

The IAA has cleared Irish Airports to open for full operations from 1300 hrs local time today Tuesday 4th May. Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Knock, Donegal, Waterford, Kerry, Galway and Sligo may resume normal operations.
Current Information from the VAAC confirms this information. We expect operations to be normal at all Irish Airports for the rest of today.
Ireland will not fall within the predicted area of ash concentrations that exceed acceptable engine manufacturer tolerance levels.
Our decision to close earlier today was based solely on the safety risks to crews and passengers as a result of the drift south of the volcanic ash cloud caused by the north easterly winds.
The situation will be reviewed as the week goes on. Winds are forecast to continue coming from a Northerly direction for the next few days and this could lead to further problems.
There will be a further update on the IAA website at 20.00hrs tonight, Tuesday 4th May, 2010.
ENDS

I have seen fleecy's link. I fail to see how the red area has moved away until tonight. The black area was never a threat over the last 12 hours. However rain is forecast in the Irish FIR this afternoon.

I have been monitoring this page:-

Met Office: Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres

Tomorrow could be different.

and this one.

http://www.eurocontrol-at-atcglobal....10_0600UTC.pdf

should be able to change the title to 1200UTC soon. At the moment chart hasn't be issued.

F14,

The black area at 0600 is significant enough for the airspace closures that have occurred. The red area as far as I know is not an issue as the density is not high enough for it to be a factor.

The two charts you have linked to do not show the areas in which ash is forecast to be above the manufacturers tolerance level.

I agree the next few days could be interesting.

F14 check this site out:

Met Office: Icelandic volcano - Ash concentration charts

It could explain things if this is what is being used.

This volcano has become very active again its spewing out very black ash compared to a white cloud over the weekend. Check out this live link third picture down.

Link: Mulakot - myndavelar

Beginning to wonder if th IAA read the wrong chart last night as the Met Office charts showing red zone , black zone and buffer do not extend as far as Ireland and the CFMU chart including buffer is similar. Were they using the basic ash chart with red zone only?

The IAA were most definitely using the right chart for 06:00 this morning which clearly had a black area across Northern Ireland sufficient to cause the closures seen this morning. The 12:00 forecast issued at the same time showed no black areas so most people were hopeful that the closures would be short.

Whether or not there really was a high concentration as per the forecast is a different matter but there was ample time to arrange flights to sample it so hopefully by now somebody knows how accurate the forecast was.

well not so strange...
 

after all...

only that a lot of pro's still dont get it..

F14 wrote:

at the end of the day it's pretty simple..

The VAAC charts ( Aviation Color Red) are the ONLY official and ICAO conform way to tell where there is a "Danger Zone"..

These official VAAC Charts ( Aviation Color Red) are the basis for the SIGMETs.

If you as a PIC fly into or just plan your flight into an area designated by a SIGMET and nothing happens, well that's fine..

IF HOWEVER something happens, you, as a "PILOT IN COMMAND " are toast...

No airline boss will bail you out.. and no politician either..

The new charts ( color black) depicting "no fly zones" are a political vehicle to lure everybody into thinking that outside of the "black area" flying is safe..

It is NOT by any national or international standards which by themselves are based on ICAO rules..in any legal way

Those ICAO rules STILL APPLY...

So let's hope all crews in the front end of all those airliners are aware of that fact ...

It is nevertheless their rear end out on the line...

Following the latest update to forecasts from the UK Met Office, the CAA has issued guidance to operators announcing that airspace over Scotland and Northern Ireland will be closed from 07:00 local time tomorrow (Wednesday) morning.

CAA statement

HIAL latest update at 16:45 shows everything still open.

2100 update now showing Scottish airspace closed tomorrow (05/05) and reports are saying that airspace over north west UK and north Wales could be affected by 1200 tomorrow.

Well, wonder if Servisair will send out another letter advising staff that the company could cease operations at any time - due to the volcano... :ugh:

Lots of dedicated staff in the regions who are now worried sick that they may end up unemployed, and by the tone of the letter, Servisair are not kidding. Prepared to sacrafice some big customer contracts, and shed loads of hard working staff. :mad:

Business interruption insurance
 

I must say it baffles me that more companies don't carry business interruption insurance to protect them in times like this? It's commonly available after all. I also think any business that is making noises about going down the tubes after only a few days stoppage simply isn't well run - I mean equating it to a household it's like one of us taking a week unpaid leave isn't it?

Anyway my best wishes to all the Servisair guys and gals.

Desk-pilot

Don't be baffled - do the sums!
Even assuming an insurer could be found that was prepared to quote for the sky-high cover you suggest, the company's profits need to be large enough to pay the premiums.
I think you'll find that starting from where we are (insuring against a risk - ie. volcanic activity combined with particular weather conditions -with unknown probability but proven consequences costing billions) there's no way now that this risk could ever be covered. Far too open-ended. Insurance companies are not charities: they're in business only to make money.

Why some cxld and some not?
 

Anyone got any idea as to why BA and AF have cancelled all flights into EDI from LHR, LGW and CDG but others such as EZY, BE etc on similar routes are flying normally? (note I'm not even mentioning FR.... )

Forecast for weekend
 

Hi Guys, grateful for some advice. My boss is due to fly Luton to Galway on Friday returning Saturday. Appreciate that nobody can know for sure about the ash, but are the winds likley to be from the NE over that period, thus increasing the possibility of disruption?:confused:

By the end of the late shift @ EDI last night, seems like most airlines were preparing for the worst for today (Wednesday), as most had their engine covers fitted etc. Ryanair, along with one or two other airlines like BA, seemed to take the view that EDI would be shut first thing today and cancelled their early morning flights and put a notice to that effect on their website yesterday evening. This morning however, EDI remained open and the airlines that had decided to play a "wait and see" strategy seem to be operating normally. RYR interestingly enough said that Edinburgh would be open for Ryanair flights from 1500 hours today.

Not sure what they told the passengers at the airport who saw most other airlines operating normally ........

:)