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Interesting article on the BBC
Volcano ash flight ban 'might have ended sooner'
Flights resumed when manufacturers gave assurances six days after the eruption, which disrupted the plans of hundreds of thousands of people last month. If airline engine manufacturers had specified a safe level of ash earlier, the Civil Aviation Authority says it could have reopened the skies earlier. All aircraft engine makers contacted by the BBC declined to comment. CAA chief executive Andrew Haines told Radio 4's The Report: "The critical path for this decision was the time it took for the manufacturers to satisfy themselves on the safe level of contamination. "How long does it take for a manufacturer who has declined to determine something for many years to actually say, 'Given the evidence we've now got, we're happy to nail our colours to the mast and say that these are safe levels of contamination that don't present a hazard.'" He said: "I suspect that manufacturers knew much of this, that they knew there was an acceptable level of safety but what hadn't happened is that they were prepared to underwrite that and validate it." Mr Haines continued: "I suspect that a lot of these things come down to a combination of commercial and safety pressures and actually there are levels of contamination which might impact on the life of the engine without impacting on its safety. "But that's only a speculation on my part.... I'm just grateful that they came to the table and worked very hard to get it resolved." "If we'd had the assurances from manufacturers that we have now at the start of this crisis, the response would have been different." Ongoing discussions about the safe level of volcanic ash to fly in had already been taking place between air regulators and the air industry, according to Richard Deakin, chief executive of the National Air Traffic Control Services (NATS). "There had been a meeting of the volcanic ash advisory group with aero engine manufacturers in March of this year, so literally a few weeks before events unfolded," he said. The question of what might be a safe level has been widely discussed across the industry for many years. In 1982 a BA jumbo jet flew right into a plume of ash from an Indonesian volcano and all four engines stalled, although they were eventually restarted. The normal procedure when planes encounter ash is to fly round it, meaning that manufacturers have not had to specify "safe" levels. But the size and location of the ash cloud produced by Eyjafjallajokull, meant it was impossible to fly round it. BD |
Watching BBC weather this morning it struck me that another high pressure system was on its way. 0000UTC Wed 5 May Px Chart shows a pretty clear flow toward uk/europe:
Met Office: Surface pressure forecast A second wave? Who knows... no really, who actually knows? |
Not good. Lots more activity around Eyjafjallajökull as well. The red markers show activity in the last 24 hours.
See: Earthquakes - Mýrdalsjökull |
Its Back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Here's the official Icelandic government report. Emphasis in bold is mine, not theirs
Eruption in Eyjafjallajökull Status Report: 21:00 GMT, 02 May 2010 Icelandic Meteorological Office and Institute of Earth Sciences, University of Iceland Compiled by: MJR / MTG / FS / BO / SSJ / SH Based on: IMO seismic monitoring; IES-IMO GPS monitoring; IMO hydrological data; web cameras of the eruption site from Vodafone, Mila, and Múlakot; IMO weather radar measurements; information from scientists at Gígjökull. [No scientific overflight today.] Eruption plume: Height (a.s.l.): Estimated from web-camera views and observers on the ground at an elevation of 4–5.4 km (13–18,000 ft). Clouds of ash at lower elevations observed drifting south-east of the eruption site. No verifiable detections from the weather radar at Keflavík Airport. Heading: South-east from the eruption site. Plume track visible at least 200 km from the eruption site on MODIS (12:35 GMT) and EUMETSAT (17:15 GMT) satellite imagery. Colour: Dark grey (ash) clouds observed over the eruptive site. White (steam) plumes rising from Gígjökull, north of the eruption site. Tephra fallout: Moderate ash-fall reported in the village of Vík (12:00 GMT), located 40 km south-east of Eyjafjallajökull. Lightning: No detections today over the eruption site (18:00 GMT). Noises: Booming sounds heard during the night and throughout the day up to 40 km south-east of the eruption site. Additional note: Plumes of white steam extend partway down Gígjökull. Lava appears to have advanced further down Gígjökull overnight. Aerial observations at 18:25 GMT confirmed a dense cloud of ash between 3–3.3 km a.s.l. (10,000–11,000 ft) at 60° N, 16° W (~470 km south-east of Iceland). London VAAC have been informed about this sighting. Meltwater: Before 16:00 GMT, discharge levels at the old Markarfljóts bridge, ~18 km downstream from Gígjökull, were noticeably lower than yesterday's levels. Between 16:00–17:00 GMT, a meltwater pulse was detected at the bridge; the flood was comparable in size to earlier floods on 30 April. At 19:40 GMT, web-camera images of Gígjökull showed plumes of steam rising from the glacier edge. Additionally, steam is rising from the delta that occupies the lake basin, suggesting the discharge of near-boiling meltwater. Conditions at eruption site: Explosive activity has increased somewhat over the last 2–3 days; mass flux in the plume is estimated at 10–20 tonnes s–1. A scoria cone continues to form at the eruption site. Lava is propagating down Gígjökull and most of its energy is being used to melt ice. As lava advances down-glacier, the size of the ice canyon increases. Large plumes of steam are produced where lava is in contact with ice and meltwater. Seismic tremor: During the last 30 hours, tremor levels have intensified. This intensification could be due to lava-ice interactions within Gígjökull, or conditions at the eruption site. Earthquakes: No locatable seismicity detected beneath Eyjafjallajökull. GPS deformation: Horizontal displacement towards the centre of the volcano, in addition to vertical subsidence. In the last couple of days increased subsidence has been observed at stations closest to the eruptive crater. These observations are consistent with deflation of a magma reservoir beneath Eyjafjallajökull, although the deformation pattern has changed somewhat. Magma flow: See overall assessment. Other remarks: No measurable geophysical changes within the Katla volcano. Overall assessment: The eruption is mixed, with the lava-producing phase being larger than the explosive phase. During the last 2–3 days, the plume has been darker and wider than in the preceding week. Tephra fall-out in the vicinity of Eyjafjallajökull has increased. From the location of the steam plume over Gígjökull, lava has advanced over 3 km north of the eruption. Steam plumes over the glacier edge from 19:40 GMT suggest that lava may have advanced even further. A rough order-of-magnitude estimate of lava volume can be obtained from the dimensions of the ice canyon. This estimate gives a lava production rate of-the-order 20 m3 s–1 (i.e. 50 tonnes s–1). The explosive phase may be 10–20 tonnes s–1. The explosive phase has increased somewhat in intensity during the last few days. Presently, there are no measurable indications that the eruption is about to end. |
I'm glad I don't have to make the decision either way.
Rgds Dr I |
Over the midlands by tomorrow evening I would think.
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You mean..............................the ash might have suddenly become dangerous again?:ugh:
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For goodness sake. I can't summon more disgust than that. I wonder what the politicos and the money men will decide this time.
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sky news now running the story:
"The latest information we have is that some of the denser volcanic ash, that's the no-fly zone, is over the Donegal area," IAA's chief executive Eamon Brennan told RTE radio. "We are concerned about the north-easterly winds moving this down over the rest of the country." He went on: "At the moment we have a slither of denser ash over the midlands and if this continues for the next number of hours we have no option, based on the new regime imposed in Europe last week, except to impose a no-fly zone and a 60-mile buffer zone which would effectively close Shannon and Dublin airports." |
Irish airspace closed from 7am
rte.ie/news reporting that Irish airspace will close from 7am.
RTÉ News: Irish airspace to close from 7am |
Radio programme on the Ash debacle:
BBC - BBC Radio 4 Programmes - The Report |
Forget the current insignificant volcano........
Katla is probably imminent, and the ensuing ecological disaster :\ Katla | Ríkisútvarpið vefur |
Ash Cloud Returns-Ireland Closed.
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So will the UK government politicians dare to run round like headless chickens again in election week ?
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Ive just looked on Caspar and it is showing flights still in and out of Dublin.
Is it accurate and is Irish airspace still open? |
..erm - 7 posts above? Wake up at the back.
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Quote from the Icelandic Met Office site. Sounds as if they're getting fed up of groundless conjecture:
Katla is NOT erupting and there are NO indications that Katla is about to erupt. Information on this page is for the Eyjafjallajökull eruption. |
Katla
Not totally conjecture;
Re post 2505/Calvin Hobbes 28APR Page 2 of "Status Report" Katla rumbled at 03.36 28APR 6km down Just checked the site and apparently nothing since Rod. |
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