..."scientific"...
 

Pace

Interesting statement about the scientific “level” of the said NASA DC-8 ash encounter “paper”. While this paper originally is part of thousands of “studies” and “reports” on the NASA Technical Report Server (NTRS), it can now be found nearly “everywhere” for known reasons.

It seems, that your knowledge level and insight what scientific research work and analysis is really about is quite dim. While a pilot’s license puts you in the front seat of a complex and remarkable man-made machine, it unfortunately lacks the intellectual capabilities and skills of a profound Ph.D degree and experience in either engineering or natural sciences. The retroactive blaming of all aviation authorities, VAACs and its associated scientific advisors and risk management teams in order to follow the media mainstream is therefore a direct result of this lack of core knowledge.

Better work on the quality rather than quantity of your “publications”…


F.I.

I am not a scientist or an engineer and dont have a clue how many thousands of studies or papers have been written on the subject.
you obviously are by your profile, so please enlighten us to how a zero tolerance of ash which has been in place for years can suddenly be thrown on the ash heap within days and replaced with new levels of acceptable ash.

Maybe the culmination of all this research happened to coincide with this vulcanic eruption in timely fashion??? But then I am sure you will know?

As to your arrogance maybe pprune should have a requirement of holding a PH.D degree to post here?

I am not alone in my "views" and it will be intersting to see whether the airlines are happy to accept their losses or challenge the whole handling of the crisis to retrieve those losses through the courts as they claim they will! They must feel they have an arguement over how matters were handled?
It is not the individual skills or dedication of the cooks in question but probably too many of them spoiling the broth.

Pace

All the ash in animation
 

This cumulative animation shows the ash cloud from April 15 up through this coming Monday or so. One can see that the cloud began to disperse at about the same time that the powers that be switched from meteorological criteria to financial criteria to set ash limits. One can also see that another big blob of ash is expected to sweep over the U.K. in the coming 48 hours or so. Strangely, I haven't read anything about it in the news.

http://api.met.no/weatherapi/volcani...type=image/gif

Appreciate the link, AGA, but mine seems to 'hang' on 20 April at the moment. Certainly the route KEF-LGW looks like a challenge up to then:)

It is of note that in ground terms the deposits of ash particles in the south of England (Aviate 1138's 'pollen') did not amount to any more than a good dose of summer Saharan sand, if that enables a sensible comparison of risk?

you are reading way too much into the words.

In order to continue you need to define how you intrepreted zero tolerance.

From a safety of flight standpoint take a look at the FAA release posted here a couple of days back.

Here's a typical question from an operator to an OEM

1) Is it OK to fly into volcanic ash ? ......

ans: No

2) What do I do if I accidently fly into ash ?

ans: inspect your aircraft and engine systems and clean and replace as necessary

3) Why is it not OK to fly into ash?

Ans: because it may damage your engines or aircraft by plating out in the hot section of engines, blocking small holes with ash or eroding aircraft windscreens, and/or blades in an engine.

4) Is it unsafe to fly into ash?

ans: it might be if etc. etc.

5) How do I know if I have flown into ash?

ans: any of the following symptoms may occur etc. etc.

6) How much ash does it take to bring down an aircraft?

ans: Don't know, it has never happened when the following steps have been taken. etc. etc.

7) How do I avoid flying into volcanic ash?

ans: ask a meteoroligist

No where in the above is there a statement of zero tolerance and aviation has not operated in a zero tolerance regime but rather chosen the route of avoid with caution and accomodate if an inadvertent encounter occurs.

Hello, I normally just read this forum (had to actually join to make this post)- they are often entertaining and sometimes enlightening, so thanks to all the contributors. My apologies if I don't do this quote thing in quite the correct manner.
With reference to BOAC's post

"Iceland’s Katla Volcano New Seismic Activity 4/28/10: Eruption Imminent Today, Iceland’s Katla volcano had a significant earthquake. Although no eruption has happened yet, this would be the normal course of events prior to an eruption. No official news story available at this time, but the seismograph data is available for public viewing here:

Icelandic Meteorological Office - Volcanic Eruption - Seismicity - Weather forecasts - Weather observations - Avalanches - Hydrology - Climatology - Sea Ice

Please can we have some opinions?

lomapaseo

Your last post really 'hit the nail on the head' with respect to the difficulty operators faced during the inital few days of the ash cloud reaching the UK and Europe. Given that the industry had no quantitive measure as to safe levels of ash, as we now seem to have established, albeit in extremis- all our previous instructions and procedures instructed us to avoid ash- period. Is it a surprise to anyone that we stopped flying in the face of this ash cloud?- such as it was.

What operator would have/could have ignored VAAC advisories, Ops Manuals and OEM instructions, even if NATS would have issued clearances? None is my guess. And if and when Katla goes, if the UK is affected, I predict we'll have a similar difficulty in deciding if its 'safe' to operate. Unless the plume is very well definded, which it wasn't last time, quite how we'll flight plan around ash in a dymanic atmosphere is going to be another major issue.

over reaction?
 

Was in work today and read a lot of e-mails from Executive Officers of airlines in the UK praising the way NATS dealt with things. This includes one from BA... It also includes one from Lord Adonis.

Not only that, but they all stated they were very impressed with the communication, hospitality and work that NATS provided during the period.

Yes, there may well have been an over reaction but the airlines, in private at least, are singing the praises of the efforts made. Maybe they want to put a different spin on it to appease their customers, but it does not marry with what they have written.

The fact of the matter is this is the first time this has happened over such a densely flown area. There are bound to be lessons learned, hopefully they will be.

Dangerous Ash?
 

To previous posters some answers:
We have wx radar to Detect and AVOID CBS
When significant bird concentrations are known about we DONT TAKE OFF
Flying is all about risk management.
The whole point of my post is that overnight someone has dreamt up a supposed safe level of volcanic ash concentration.
Where is the evidence to back that up and how do we as pilots determine the level that we are flying through is at or below that level.
Oh yeah and the only remedy we have in flight is a 180 turn
THAT IS BASED ON A FLIGHT PLAN THAT AVOIDS ASH
So having not been flight planned through and not encountering ash at any level of concentration up to that point a 180 turn is a sensible action to remove the risk.
Being flight planned THROUGH ash areas that maneuver may very well be useless

re: kala87
 

The advice would have been quite clear AVOID FLYING THROUGH KNOWN AREAS OF VOLCANIC ASH
We pilots deal with this situation ALL THE TIME
the only difference here was there wasn't any clearly defined area to fly around

how much more different is it from flying in dense dust as is frequently done in the middle east.

Volcanic ash is much more corrosive than sand, and the particular type of ash from this eruption contained higher levels of glass particulates than the ash from either Pinatubo or Mt St Helens.

I personally thought Five days from Whoa to Go again is very quick, considering the scientific, technical, operational, not to mention regulatory, insurance and legal issues that had to be addressed.

Well done.

Furthermore, we now have a precedent in place that will prevent the whining and bitching from uninformed idiots in the event that Ash becomes a problem again.

Sort of like the difference between chalk and cheese. And there can be some very nasty gases lurking in the volcanic stuff. (Compounds of sulphur and fluorine among others)
Hope we are now ready for Katla if it blows.

I was on a Swiss A340 flight on April 30/May 1st and they kept the landing lights on for the entire flight. Is this standard practice to see the ash clouds?
We also hit some 'clouds' southwest of Iceland which looked different and the aircraft flew higher to escape which was an unusual reaction to cloud.

BOAC

Does this help ?

Volcanic Ash Animation :: ASHTAM The Aviation, Volcanic Information Site

An animation from the beginning of all the Norwegian Met Office Images.

Gary

Yes - I was looking at the pressure pattern forecast for this week earlier, and that confirms my concerns.

Well, Jan, re my post #2494 - it might be that we do not even need Katla to find out where our ducks are sitting.

The Volcano That Stopped Britain - Channel 4
....
.....

Looks interesting, UK C4 TV, Sunday 02May, starts about 21.00/21.10 Z

here it comes again....will it stop the UK again this time??????

http://metoffice.com/aviation/vaac/d...1272863146.png