Waiting patient for the first official and preliminary report issued by the competent investigation teams, what i really could foresee now its some dark clouds hovering above the Tatarstan Airlines roofs...having in mind all the previous Russian Accidents&Incidents with other Russian Airline(rs), i cannot see any deviation here by the MAK and Rosaviatsia policy on the crash aftermath...lets hope im wrong, just my 2 cents.
TAK its already starting slowly their new Airbus fleet for some time.

Also the old concrete runways at DME are in horrendous state.

According to the NY Times, "President Vladimir V. Putin ordered officials to set up a commission to investigate the crash, his spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told local news agencies."

Isn't this a bit unusual? Isn't there already an agency in Russia like the US NTSB whose responsibility it is to investigate the causes of these crashes?

May this be due to the two political passengers on board, who happen to be "Aleksandr V. Antonov, 56, the regional head of Russia’s Federal Security Service, known as the F.S.B., as well as Irek Minnikhanov, 24, a son of the president of the Tatarstan region, Rustam Minnikhanov," according to the Times?

Investigations in a causes like this is usually done by MAK. I suppose that MAK provides investigation in this case too. Putin has tried hard for long time to change to improve safety level in Russia. I think that the participation of minister in the commission is intended for emphasizing of high importance. And if they find cause at the Tatarsan Airlines, it won´t be surprise for me, if they lose their AOC in the moment. Surely, the death of the son of president surely affected Putin´s decision.


The crew start to provide GA - was it stall and was it caused by low airspeed or high AoA? Or flap problem?

video of the crash site

Many moons ago, when OKC was a young & spritely First Officer (I did say it was many moons ago :rolleyes: ), one recalls doing a go-around (in a B737-300), during which the aircraft started shaking quite dramatically, i.e. in a manner very akin to the aerodynamic buffet one might expect if one were approaching a stall, but which struck me as weird because, if anything, at that particular moment, the aircraft was going so damned fast that we were more at risk of tearing the flaps off the wing than of stalling (this being caused by the bloke in the LHS being new on type, and the two-engined performance of a lightly loaded, B737 somewhat getting the better of him, and that he failed to press the TOGA button, shoved the thrust levers to the firewall, had turned his Flight Director fully off, and likewise failed to pull the nose high enough to temper the rapidly increasing airspeed, and then forgot to call for flap retraction as the airspeed increased)... but, why did the aircraft shake as it did?

Well, it turns out that what he'd also done, prior to landing, was to 'release the brakes' (you might like to guess at his previous type ;) ?) and apparently that then set in motion a sequence of events that would only occur during a go-around (and which was a known bug in the system and admitted to by Boeing) which seemingly then caused the hydraulic system to start 'pulsing', and that in turn caused the rudder to 'wiggle', and that in turn (due the secondary affect of yaw) caused the wings to start wobbling, and the whole thing felt just like the approach to a stall. Well it certainly got my attention and I was glad it was during a nice clear day over the desert and not at night in a cloudy & snowy sky!

The B737 in a two-engine go-around, if not properly managed, can be a real handful !

Seems like that's the moment of crash...

Although, the websource has a very questionable reputation. :\


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Reason for G.A.
 

Perhaps crew announced they were unstabilized during G.A.
Was ANC applied or was it CNA this time?Aviate Navigate Communicate...and the most important part of Avigate is TOGA and safe Pitch GA attitude..and reconfigure on schedule..perhaps too much lift was removed too soon?Perhaps there was crew transition confusion during PF/PNF duty swap during the GA? We shall find out in due time..let us hope!

There's a video showing moment of crash... look at the angle... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koUV3xRIraU

according to media/ATC report - the crew's last communication was -
"We are going around. We have non-landing configuration"

Go around due to not stabilized approach ..... It is a fact.
What had been done wrong DURING a go-around???
Wait for FDR!!! On available video only stall could be suspected... But the reason???

From the above, a credible possible scenario :-

Flap problems so crew attempts a flapless landing.
Flapless landing misjudged, too deep so go around. (easily done)
Go around without flaps is not a good idea = stall/spin. (very easily done)

MAK(Russian NTSB) reported that both FDR and CVR have been found and they are substantially damaged

Before we get the usual "Russian Cowboys" comments going, let's wait for an initial report. The Pm's comment about "not being configured" or however he worded it are a little cryptic, but if they had a flaps/slats issue in gusting conditions then they were in a tight place. 3 landing attempts, maybe PIC thought their situation needed a nice long runway (3,700m meters) was necessary, maybe wx at alternates was terrible.. Lets wait before throwng them under a train

Ladies and Gentlemen, the video of security camera's on site are horrific.

Please beware before watching, this is not a nice scene...

Surveillance cameras recorded on video Boeing crash in Kazan

How about this...

1) Improper maintenance leading to

2) Vulnarable* control surface(s) which combines with

3) Gusty and/or strong winds and maybe maybe

4) Some element of human factors

and when all of that combines during a night approach you get the worst case of nosedive captured on camera. Brrr, that little snippet was really something...

*By vulnerable I here take into account what the previous passengers said, and pair it with the expertise on flaps/slats settings and also the age of the aircraft. "Vulnerable" meaning "subjected to stronger than expected/designed for forces during some period of time, leading to failure(sp?) of one or more vital pieces of design". A lot of assumptions made here as you see.

the one bit about releasing brakes and rudder wiggling is sure news to me

esp after the rudder hardover near pittsburgh


subsequent device to reduce hydraulic pressure based on radio alt (700feet)

we shall see

gusty winds, even to 30 knots if closely aligned with runway shouldn't be too much for plane and pilot.

please post exact winds both steady and gust at times of approach.

Is this what you're looking for?
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8158580

Skyjob

The assessment from the video seems spot on.
From the camera angle the aircraft comes down near vertical straight into the ground.

It would be hard to transition from a normal approach and get to a vertical attitude in a 737 in 700 ft at approach speed without rolling into a vertical attitude.

Even with a flap asymmetry that stops transition of flaps should not leave you in a situation that lets the aircraft be uncontrollable.
Giving the benefit of the doubt to the pilots, it sure looks like a control panel issue.

Flash on Video 1 sec before hitting the Ground
 

Any ideas out there what might be the cause of the bright flash about 1 sec before hitting the ground (00:04 after start)? Cut through electricity cables, rolling such that landing light faces camera briefly, etc? Not a pretty sight.