Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran
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The Iranians had just fired a bunch of ballistic missiles at US air bases in Iraq. What would you as an Iranian commander in the field think will happen next? Nothing? A strongly worded phone call to the Ayatollah from Trump? Or a US air strike on the airfield you are protecting? Poor communication would play a part along with poor training, poor leadership, tension and expectation if this accident ultimately proves to be a shoot down miscalculation.
Especially as this aircraft was apparently about an hour behind schedule. Perhaps there weren't supposed to be any aircraft operating from the airport at that time (I guess someone here would know?) - the SAM unit wouldn't necessarily be tied in to the civil ATC or monitoring their freqs, let alone be actively talking to them on the 'phone or radio.
Iran CAO chief's position on the new information about the shoot-down from a CNN interview:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219
Ali Abedzadeh said, "if a rocket or missile hits a plane, it will free fall."
Abedzadeh asked, "How can a plane be hit by rocket or missile" and then the pilot "try to turn back to the airport?"
For a fellow who is the minister for the CAO, he seems to know very little about flying.
However, he also added that, "the black box of this very Ukrainian Boeing 737 is damaged.
Ukrainian Aviation experts arrived here in Tehran today. We had a session with them. From tomorrow they will start decoding the data."
"If the available equipment is not enough to get the content" Iran will outsource the boxes to "the experts from France or Canada," Abedzadeh said.
Ukrainian Aviation experts arrived here in Tehran today. We had a session with them. From tomorrow they will start decoding the data."
"If the available equipment is not enough to get the content" Iran will outsource the boxes to "the experts from France or Canada," Abedzadeh said.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51055219
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Originally Posted by CBC
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says intelligence now indicates the Ukrainian passenger aircraft that crashed outside of Tehran on Wednesday, killing everyone on board — including 138 people destined for Canada — was shot down by an Iranian missile.
"We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile," he said during a news conference in Ottawa, adding that it might have been an unintentional act.
"We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence. The evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile," he said during a news conference in Ottawa, adding that it might have been an unintentional act.
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Video at following post
Ukrainian Aircraft down in Iran
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The scene looked to me much more organized than some other crash sites overseas, e.g.
One irony to a Westerner is that some of the photos posted by the ISNA (Iranian Students' News Agency) showed body parts without censorship but wedding photos of a bride not in a hijab were bowdlerized.
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Especially as this aircraft was apparently about an hour behind schedule. Perhaps there weren't supposed to be any aircraft operating from the airport at that time (I guess someone here would know?) - the SAM unit wouldn't necessarily be tied in to the civil ATC or monitoring their freqs, let alone be actively talking to them on the 'phone or radio.
https://www.flightradar24.com/2020-0.../35.56,51.64/9
This is a still from the first frame showing the rapidly growing light source, which is consistent with an explosion. It appears to be partly shielded, suggesting it may be exploding under and in front of the port wing (the aircraft would be moving from right to left at the moment of impact) perhaps?
Last edited by BFM; 9th Jan 2020 at 22:39.
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New York Times has up to date “confirmation”of missile attack.
Always seemed only reasonable conclusion.
At least it’s not more bad news for Boeing which could have been terminal if the plane had simply exploded due to massive unprecedented explosion
very sad indeed for all concerned whatever the cause
RG
Always seemed only reasonable conclusion.
At least it’s not more bad news for Boeing which could have been terminal if the plane had simply exploded due to massive unprecedented explosion
very sad indeed for all concerned whatever the cause
RG
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A SAM Head is found DURING the search of the downed aircraft crash site in Tehran, in a crash that took place during a very tense period of time due to Iran launching missiles into Iraq, with unusual puncture evidence, the Iranians do not want to release the CVR and Data Recorder, and we are wanting to look at something other than what is patently obvious?
When it looks like a Duck, waddles like a Duck, and quacks like a Duck.....you know...it might just be a Duck!
https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrain...1-missile.html
When it looks like a Duck, waddles like a Duck, and quacks like a Duck.....you know...it might just be a Duck!
https://defence-blog.com/news/ukrain...1-missile.html
You can understand that due to the sheer volume of 737 flights worldwide on a daily basis, this devastating crash of a 3 year old airframe in a part of the world that has seen an unprecedented amount of alarming activity in recent days is being regarded by some as slightly more than coincidental.
In spite of the literary gymnastics by some posters that attempt to explain away the obvious, it's becoming quite clear the aircraft was shot down by an AA missile.
The videos, photos of penetration damage, and most significantly the missile seeker head, reflect the fact that the totalitarian Iranian regime cannot prevent the ubiquitous smartphone from revealing that what had been suspected has indeed occurred.
I don't put much weight on the meaning of the heading reversal. ALL of the following LOCA accidents involved a heading reversal or close approximation. None of them were "trying to return to the airport" - they were simply ~halfway through an out-of-control spiral at the moment of impact.
AF447
Colgan Air 3407
AirAsia 8501
I believe this aircraft simply just "rolled in" once the aerodynamics and/or the control systems and/or the crew were compromised by the missile strike.
AF447
Colgan Air 3407
AirAsia 8501
I believe this aircraft simply just "rolled in" once the aerodynamics and/or the control systems and/or the crew were compromised by the missile strike.
9. Immediate statements that black boxes would not be shared with Boeing and US.
10. Early statements stating memory of black boxes damaged likely without detailed lengthy specialist attempts.
It just doesn't look good the overall picture emerging, and understandably nobody will admit what the real facts are.
Only a thorough genuine transparent investigation will tell, and you only get that if all sides want to reveal the truth. In the absence of an open transparent investigation, the events and information allows everyone to come to their own conclusions.
10. Early statements stating memory of black boxes damaged likely without detailed lengthy specialist attempts.
It just doesn't look good the overall picture emerging, and understandably nobody will admit what the real facts are.
Only a thorough genuine transparent investigation will tell, and you only get that if all sides want to reveal the truth. In the absence of an open transparent investigation, the events and information allows everyone to come to their own conclusions.
A more recent report has
"... the black box of this very Ukrainian Boeing 737 is damaged. Ukrainian Aviation experts arrived here in Tehran today. We had a session with them. From tomorrow they will start decoding the data."
"If the available equipment is not enough to get the content Iran will outsource the boxes to the experts from France or Canada," Abedzadeh said.
Of direct concern to what you say there is will the investigation be carried out and openly published by the relevant authorities, including those coming from abroad, or will things be hampered by the state.
A spokesman for the Iranian regime has been quoted denouncing speculation about missiles as a form of psychological warfare. Not necessarily promising for the clarity of the ultimate result.
Last edited by aox; 10th Jan 2020 at 00:06.
MrsDoubtfire - your link didn't work for me, although that may be because of how my browser is configured.
A shoot down was the only viable conclusion I came to. I consider catastrophic failure of a wing tank and thus the loss of the aircraft, due to a UERF or FBO event to be even less likely than a SAM shootdown in the environment the aircraft was being operated in.
Debris trajectories are considered as part of the airworthiness requirements of the aircraft (as TDRacer mentions up thread - there is a requirement for +/- 5 degrees coverage forward and aft of a defined zone). On some aircraft designs, where it is not possible to avoid intersecting the wing with high energy damage, purposely dry volumes are designed in to try to stop fuel venting over parts of the engine hot enough to ignite the fuel. QF32 showed that a turbine could fail and penetrate the wing, and ignite fuel, but that a fire was likely to put itself out, either due to impinging air on the outside blowing the fire out, sheer liquid fuel quantity extinguishing the fire or due to a lack of air on the inside of the tank - fire uses up the bay free air. QF32 also shows that you can almost completely sever the front spar and maintain adequate structural integrity for normal flight and landing. This is not a design case!
Last edited by unmanned_droid; 9th Jan 2020 at 23:31.
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I know that the insurance for my planes specify exclusions for damage resulting from an "act of war". Would being downed by a missile be considered an act of war? I recall that the US [eventually] paid out the Iran airline when they shot their airliner down many years ago. I don't recall what was the outcome of the MH17 shoot down. Would an airline be able to collect on their liability and aircraft hull insurance when it was determined to have been shot down?
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This is a still from the first frame showing the rapidly growing light source, which is consistent with an explosion. It appears to be partly shielded, suggesting it may be exploding under and in front of the port wing (the aircraft would be moving from right to left at the moment of impact) perhaps?
Interesting. Not sure if that may just be a lighting artifact between video frames. However, if it is a shadow cast on initial detonation it would not be on the port (left) side since that is in line of sight with the camera and therefore 'under the wing' would be visible, not hidden. The missile appears to approach the aircraft from off centre and to the right. You get a sense for this when you compare the missile track against the post impact aircraft track. So it is more likely the missile approached and detonated on the starboard (right hand) side of the aircraft in which case the initiation of the warhead may have been partly shielded by the fuselage which seems more likely in this case. Not trying to 'make this fit', but this would also support right hand side fragmentation damage alluded to earlier especially the hole punched through the vertical stabilizer from right to left and the (probable) right hand aft engine cowl / tail-cone assembly.
All very sad.
Last edited by Lord Farringdon; 9th Jan 2020 at 23:39. Reason: added clarity
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This seems relatively conclusive "New Video shows 'missile' hit Ukrainian Airlines Boeing 737 before it crashed killing 176
Daily Mail Story
Video of missile and explosion
Daily Mail Story
Video of missile and explosion
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I did my own geolocation of the video and found the same (didn't refresh for a while so I didn't see comments - good to have independent confirmation). Video was shot from here: 35.489223, 50.906857, and the explosion happened in North-West to North-North-Westerly direction.
According to my estimates, the sound of the explosion arrives 10.8 seconds after the flash, which means the video was shot from around 3.7 km away from the explosion. Last known altitude from flightradar24 is 7925 feet. Ground altitude is around 1.1 km. So with some trigonometry, we find that the ground distance from the point where the video was taken is around 3.5 km. With the location of the person taking the video and the line of sight, the explosion happens roughly in this area: 35.5161, 50.9287
However, it appears, the aircraft travelled around 17 seconds between the last ADS-B transmission and the time of being hit by the missile based on the intersection of the presumed flight path and the line of sight from the video. Altitude would then have been approximately 800 feet higher, so ground distance from person taking video would only have been 3.3 km, putting the revised location of the explosion in this area: 35.5140, 50.9263. The angular altitude of the explosion as seen from the position of where the video was taken would then be around 25°, which seems to be consistent with the video (but someone should check this in detail).
Working assumption for the reason of the missing 17 seconds would be that there were two missiles launched (as suggested by the intelligence from the US). The first missile was launched at took out ADS-B and radio at least. The explosion is heard and the person turns on the video camera just in time to catch the second missile hit the plane.
According to my estimates, the sound of the explosion arrives 10.8 seconds after the flash, which means the video was shot from around 3.7 km away from the explosion. Last known altitude from flightradar24 is 7925 feet. Ground altitude is around 1.1 km. So with some trigonometry, we find that the ground distance from the point where the video was taken is around 3.5 km. With the location of the person taking the video and the line of sight, the explosion happens roughly in this area: 35.5161, 50.9287
However, it appears, the aircraft travelled around 17 seconds between the last ADS-B transmission and the time of being hit by the missile based on the intersection of the presumed flight path and the line of sight from the video. Altitude would then have been approximately 800 feet higher, so ground distance from person taking video would only have been 3.3 km, putting the revised location of the explosion in this area: 35.5140, 50.9263. The angular altitude of the explosion as seen from the position of where the video was taken would then be around 25°, which seems to be consistent with the video (but someone should check this in detail).
Working assumption for the reason of the missing 17 seconds would be that there were two missiles launched (as suggested by the intelligence from the US). The first missile was launched at took out ADS-B and radio at least. The explosion is heard and the person turns on the video camera just in time to catch the second missile hit the plane.