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Jeremy Vine Show - Pilotless Airliners

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Jeremy Vine Show - Pilotless Airliners

Old 23rd Aug 2016, 17:10
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Who's Jeremy Vine?
He is a guy who makes a living by provoking debate.

And as this thread illustrates, he is very good at it!
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 17:24
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Tourist

That article you link to is very interesting, but I don't think it has relevance to this discussion.
Sorry but that's called "moving the goalposts" - some parts of the article may not be strictly relevant to this discussion but very relevant to your quite strongly stated assertion that "there are millions of optical illusions. Computers don't suffer from them"..

I'd think much more important is the researcher's comments that "what we don’t have, what we still need, is a better understanding of what’s really going on inside these neural networks.” That would suggest to me at least we are nowhere near the level of confidence required if we're planning on neural networks being used in fully autonomous airliner ops.

Ultimately I understand where you're coming from, and one day you'll be right, but I do think you're being unrealistically optimistic if you think that day is less than 30-40 years away.
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 17:43
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Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
Tourist
Sorry but that's called "moving the goalposts" - some parts of the article may not be strictly relevant to this discussion but very relevant to your quite strongly stated assertion that "there are millions of optical illusions. Computers don't suffer from them"..
The guys in that article are deliberately finding arrangements of pixels that can be misinterpreted by neural nets so as to learn about the learning process

A glance at the pictures they are showing suggests that the title of the article is eye catching but not very accurate.

That is rather different than finding actual images of the real world that cause optical illusions to a computer.

Originally Posted by wiggy View Post
Ultimately I understand where you're coming from, and one day you'll be right, but I do think you're being unrealistically optimistic if you think that day is less than 30-40 years away.
We can disagree on the timescale, but you are labouring under a misapprehension.

Optimism is exactly the opposite of what I have.

I would deeply love for automation in all it's forms to be banned from aviation for eternity.
If that were to happen, I would be guaranteed a job in perpetuity and a massive payrise since I am old school enough to fly without clever computers
I left airline flying to fly a totally archaic aircraft with no computer anywhere, because aircraft like that need me and as such I can still charge a premium.

Despite this, I recognise that computers will be better than me in every way soon, as autopilots already are at handling.

I think it is important to not be deluded that computers are not coming.

Know your enemy.......
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 18:05
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........over-excitement by such as Uplinker.........
Ha ha ! You're funny Tourist. As for me; no I am not very excited by autonomous vehicles, sorry.

I stand corrected about the one I mentioned - I wasn't sure, hence the question mark at the end of my sentence I don't have a reference to it, but as I understand it (and I might be wrong), a vehicle with supposedly computerised control of some sort ultimately crashed and did so owing to a confusion of its vision system. Can you give me a link to it if you have one?

Judging by your impressive total of 3,419 posts so far, you seem to be the one who gets excited about things and cannot resist telling the rest of us about it.

That is extremely simplistic and is an attempt to sell an extraordinarily flawed vision system as ideal.
I am not selling anything. I agree, our vision system is certainly not perfect, (did I say it was?). The point I was making was that it uses the most advanced and complex thing in the known universe - the human brain. Our vision system has taken millions of years to evolve. The brain has approximately 100 billion neurons and each neuron has about 10,000 connections to other neurons. That sounds like quite a tricky task to simulate to me.

.......... This is why there are millions of optical illusions.
Millions of optical illusions? Are there really?

Computers don't suffer from them.
Why did Asimo walk into the door?



Despite this, I recognise that computers will be better than me in every way soon, as autopilots already are at handling.
The ones I use (Airbus FBW) are very good indeed, but when the autopilots meet something that is beyond them, they drop out and hand control to us. If we weren't there in the cockpit, what would happen then?


.

Last edited by Uplinker; 23rd Aug 2016 at 18:18.
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 18:21
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post

I stand corrected about the one I mentioned - I wasn't sure, hence the question mark at the end of my sentence I don't have a reference to it, but as I understand it (and I might be wrong), a vehicle with supposedly computerised control ultimately crashed and did so owing to a confusion of its vision system. Can you give me a link to it if you have one?
I'm assuming that this is the one you are referring to?


https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...-car-elon-musk

Tesla driver killed in crash with Autopilot active, NHTSA investigating | The Verge

You will note that this car was never advertised as autonomous. It is just posh cruise control.


Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
Why did Asimo walk into the door?
Because it didn't see it? Because it didn't have the required technology for walking through doors?

You are confusing robotics with computers.
Asimo was a cleverly designed robot when it was built in 2000. Now, not so much. It was never a clever computer with clever senses.

Incidentally, have you ever seen a human walk into something? If so, does it completely invalidate the entire human sensory system?
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Old 23rd Aug 2016, 18:27
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post

The ones I use (Airbus FBW) are very good indeed, but when the autopilots meet something that is beyond them, they drop out and hand control to us. If we weren't there in the cockpit, what would happen then?


.
I'm sorry, but you are being ridiculous.

The Airbus system reacts as designed.

It is designed to operate with a human pilot, and is specifically designed to drop out and hand over under certain circumstances.

If it were designed to operate without you, it would operate differently!

I also find it astonishing that you are using Airbus tech as if it is somehow relevant or a benchmark.

The tech in an Airbus is prehistoric!
When the airbus systems were designed, mobile phones looked like this



You might as well say "if I fall asleep in my VW beetle it crashes therefor all autonomous cars are never going to work"
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Old 24th Aug 2016, 10:26
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Ha ha ha ha!

Stop it, please. My sides are going to split. Do you do stand up?


.
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Old 24th Aug 2016, 10:51
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The technology exists to fly a large passenger aircraft from A to B without a pilot on board.

There would most likely need to be a pilot/operator on the ground monitoring the flight. That person would also probably have to deal with the various documents/certification required to legally operate the flight.

The real issue is would the travelling public get on board? I suspect some would, some wouldn't and the balance is likely to change over time as society gets used to more automation in general. For it to become 'the norm' would, I imagine, take decades - it may never reach that stage.
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Old 24th Aug 2016, 14:41
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Originally Posted by Uplinker View Post
Ha ha ha ha!

Stop it, please. My sides are going to split. Do you do stand up?


.
You asked for a link.

I posted two.

This is where you could have said "thanks for that, turns out you were right."
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 00:15
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Tourist, whether we like it or not, puts forward some strong arguements for pilotless aircraft being a reality.......so I say why waste your breath denying it, the end of our world as we know it will also happen one day as our sun turns into a red giant......I don't think we will give two hoots about who is flying our planes then!

We will all be long gone before we have to worry about pilotless aircraft putting us out of work, and the good news is my children have no interest in this God forsaken industry!! Maybe their interest in iPads will help them in the future?

GBD
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 00:58
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ATC will be automated before pilots disappear from cockpits
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 03:42
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The technology exists to fly a large passenger aircraft from A to B without a pilot on board.
Not sure how correct that statement is.

How does autonomous aircraft fly through thunderstorms?

How do autonomous is aircraft fly to non ILS aerodromes or better still a no instrument approach aerodrome?

How do autonomous aircraft land in gusty 40knot crosswinds?

How do autonomous aircraft land with shifting winds?

How do autonomous aircraft handle data input failures or data corruption?
(ie airspeed indications are no longer reliable or false sensory inputs ie stall warning goes off incorrectly)

This small list of problems will just be the beginning of what needs to be solved before we have the technology for autonomy.
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 04:22
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Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
How does autonomous aircraft fly through thunderstorms?
Current weather radar pictures are synthetic in most modern airliners. This means that the computer has already looked at the raw data, analysed the information and presented what it believes to be useful info about it to the human pilot.

Now, we may well have opinions about how well it does this, but either way, the computer is already in the loop.

Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
How do autonomous is aircraft fly to non ILS aerodromes or better still a no instrument approach aerodrome?
There are already autonomous aircraft doing this as previously mentioned.
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post9481044


Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
How do autonomous aircraft land in gusty 40knot crosswinds?

How do autonomous aircraft land with shifting winds?
As previously discussed and agreed by John Farley, the answer is better than humans since the Comet.

Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
How do autonomous aircraft handle data input failures or data corruption?
(ie airspeed indications are no longer reliable or false sensory inputs ie stall warning goes off incorrectly)

Modern airliners are already totally dependent on software to fly. The computers are between the pilot and the controls whether they are autonomous or not. If data being corrupted is a problem, then the problem is already with us.

Added to this, it has unfortunately been shown that human pilots don't necessarily deal with such a scenario anyway.

Originally Posted by neville_nobody View Post
This small list of problems will just be the beginning of what needs to be solved before we have the technology for autonomy.
Actually, whilst there are many hurdles to overcome, I think your list is entirely exclusive of any of them.
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 07:57
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Current weather radar pictures are synthetic in most modern airliners. This means that the computer has already looked at the raw data, analysed the information and presented what it believes to be useful info about it to the human pilot.
TBH that that like something from New Scientist or a sales brochure.


In your (I think two years) on the flight deck what did you think of such radars, and did you use them in the tropics?

Certainly the modern radars on our type still needs a healthy dose of operator input to produce consistent results - FWIW we operate one side in auto and one in manual- if you rely solely on the auto system you're often given missreading or late info or even no info at all.
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 11:05
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How do autonomous aircraft land in gusty 40knot crosswinds?

How do autonomous aircraft land with shifting winds?
You should have seen the TriStar autoland
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 11:07
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wiggy

Read what I wrote.

The picture you are looking at is a synthetic creation of computer cleverness whether in manual or auto mode.
Raw data pictures are long gone, and on the whole it is an improvement.
I am not saying that weather radar pictures are great, because often they are not, but whether you like it or not, the computer is between you and the raw data anyway already.

No need to be snide about my airline time. Yes it was two years. I am fortunate however to have been paid to spend rather longer using airborne radars of many sorts since 1989. Some were better than modern airline ones at finding weather, some were truly awful.
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 11:08
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Originally Posted by Basil View Post
You should have seen the TriStar autoland
Helps if you actually set it up properly.

(I assume you are referring to the RAF "arrival"?)
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 11:17
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(I assume you are referring to the RAF "arrival"?)
Nope, referring to autolands
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 11:25
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Ah, thought you meant this famous one...

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/1...ml#post1024703
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Old 25th Aug 2016, 13:47
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I was in HK when that happened. Story went around that the hold of the now inverted aircraft held a quantity of (no longer) live frogs, the putrefaction of which was producing methane. I understand they were removed before the hull was cut up.
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