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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

Old 22nd Mar 2016, 22:08
  #481 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Skyjob
Just a thought for those not considering a stall or part of one.
Reports of very strong LOW LEVEL jet have been around.
It does not indicate the direction of these winds. Maybe it can be derived from other data?
Should a sudden wind change occur during the missed approach, flying at clean speed up to possible even FL080, this could've possibly caused a stall on a wingtip, then (pitch) up and (wing) over is possible with this design when one one wing is affected.
Not saying this has happened, but with a speed of 197 it appears logical and thus possible as the clean speed for the aircraft is not much higher then this at the weights flown.
This type of weather situation would not allow for any kind of "sudden wind change". There was no thunderstorm involved. Just frontal zone with everyday windshear on approach. It is winter in Russia, not May in DFW. The attempts to imagine some weather mystery are misleading. As posted earlier, a situation like the one is being dealt with worldwide dozens of time daily. Everything may have ended differently under a clear full moon sky (which is speculative), but rain, wind and temperatures involved have not been special at any time around the sad event.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 23:05
  #482 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Vortex Thing
Chronos - It is not at all premature.

Rather like your relationship with Mrs or Mr Chronos or your cat(delete as required) is based on physical AND Emotional factors.

Every pilot knows that there are numerous factors involved in the chain of events leading up to an accident.

The physical what happened on night, that is speculation right now.

The emotional, how pilots feel, morale, conditions of work, work ethic and why they were even there on a dark and dirty night are likely "more" responsible whatever the outcome of the NTSB/AAIB pure technical & flight factors. The we already know. That is what we're talking about.

It is not premature discussion at all it is highly pertinent. Now thanks to a brave soul in Doha on RT breaking international news and massively relevant. In fact so relevant that I would wonder why anyone would think it not!
Yes, got a mog and a TC ( tank commander ). Both of us, owing to our well past mature stage, are dependant on TC for daily sustenance.
So quite understand human factors. It`s just that am not so much enthusiastic on the subject as it always brings into question so called pilot error. I `d prefer to consider other factors first.
On the matter of corporate culture, others have touched on whistle blowing. Something which has found its way into Western legal systems, but I`d assume not yet found its way in some other corners of the planet.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 23:58
  #483 (permalink)  
 
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Agree on the dual accents detected in FZ981 r/t just before leaving the hold for the FINAL approach.

Initial voice I easily made out as Cypriot (Capt.Aristos Socratous)and sounded more collected and assured.Was probably just trying to personally "sense"what the ATC 's judgement of the weather was(he was not replied to as desired instead got a smattering of wxr reports..as though ATC was reluctant to opine of relative change of weather if any better than before as requested.Initially was advised by ATC "negative WS" and soon after updated with severe turbulence on final and MOD WS" The commander wanted to hear it for himself(despite his PF role) when he twice asked "what does the wxr look like outside the your window".He did sound a little lethargic(fatigued?Stressed?Fear?) even resigning to me by his inflexion .He probably commenced that second approach half heartedly knowing the reported perils awaiting him..which is what prompted the early GA at the suggested height.

The second crew member voice sounded distinctly Spanish "Sky Dubai nine ehrr wwahn" He also sounded erratic and needing more clarification on the metric initial approach clearance.A in A little nervous compared to the more vomposed Capt Socratous indicated to me the first voice was in command. The pilot announcing the GA i PM anbeis normally the non handling pilot.again was F.O. Mr.Cruz).I doubt if FZ operates a monitored approach from earlier posted ops specifications.

The "bye bye" after handover from Tower hsd an eerie finality to it.I believe they had enough! The cheerful melodic " SkyDubai 981 Going Around" had an sense of relief in its inflexion..I believe they were imagining going somewhere less perilious...but little did they or their poor souls know that within a minute it would all end as a devastating tragedy.

May God rest their soul on peace..ALL 62 Souls on board that fateful night.The decease deserve our respect and a moment of silent contemplation particularly as some of us are active Pilots and could be met with a similar fate...God forbid,but that is part and parcel of chosing such a career that we love and have made much sacrifices for.May the families of all those affected crew and passengers be rewarded strength to recover from this terrible trauma.

The culture of us Pilots trying to look bold and calm and collected for passengers is undoubtedly commendable toninspire confidence...however such bravado does not have to spill over the r/t with ATC..yes by all means AN+C first..but let the folks down under have some inkling of WTF is going on uo there..in brief followed by STBY! If the recorders are indeed destroyed by the catastrophe we shall be at a loss to learn what can be prevented in future..and like the Kazan 732 accident we shall repeat this accident in some other unlikely location...hopefully not Russia again! May the Russians authority and FZ both be open about sharing the findings of this tragedy.

I have not trained on B73NG but only with rudimentary knowledge like many nin rated pilots herein.I have trained om Airbus FBW and just wonder if had FZ 981 been a bus whether we would have had this accident due to added protections and higher level of automation? The FBW concept I recall was born partly to minimize crew workload to enable a more effective Flight deck management and a more efficient and safer flight outcome...was it not?

Last edited by Vc10Tail; 23rd Mar 2016 at 10:04.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 00:30
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Video Post #471

Their landing lights are visible from 03:44:55 until they are in the GA at 03:45:25. About 30 seconds.

They are in the clouds again until 03:35:57. About 32 seconds. That's a long time. In a straight and level line, at 140 KTS, that would have taken them about 1.25 NM

Also, the point at which the lights disappear and become visible again do not seem too far apart. I know we don't know the real perspective on the camera.

The first flightaware posts showed a pitch up near the approach end and the subsequent crash about midway down the runway.

The CVR and FDR should be very interesting.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 01:17
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If the limits for Flight Crew are not more than 100 duty hours in a 28 day rolling period and 900 in a rolling year then there are bound to be high work and low work periods occasionally while still within those limits. Need to know first if these ( or the current UAE DGCA limits , if different,) have been exceeded.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 01:30
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Link to the longer embedded video


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7a2MJQbc5Zg
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 02:43
  #487 (permalink)  
 
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Well one thing PR teams circling social media should realize, even if it is human (pilot) error, weather or technical, it is still management's fault. That's how aviation works.

Fatigue if applicable, is management induced.
Lack of training is management fault.
Sending into bad weather knowingly is management fault.
Bad maintenance is management's fault.

I know it is virgin territory and bosses are working on scripts to deal with it, but proving it as pilot error doesn't make management not guilty.

Roster may look legal on paper but when you consider all off-the-record things like wake up calls 3 hours before ... humanly impossible in the long run.

But we all know as long as these airlines offer cheaper fares and sleepy blue eyed FAs pax wouldn't care if the flight crew got any sleep or not. That is a fact.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 02:51
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There is already a fairly public "paper trail" of fatigue reports on the RT link. Of course, with FlyDubai being Govt owned that will probably just "evaporate". Nonetheless, a decent solicitor could make a very big case against them if someone engaged him/her. I won't speculate on the cause ( I have flown 737 long enough to know "her" foibles & to understand my own human weaknesses when dealing with them) but, a decent legal honcho should assuredly destroy the little scrotes who run the flt ops Dept with no regard for the health/state of alertness of their employees having ignored multiple fatigue reports over the years.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 03:32
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And yet, you get these areas of responsibility in FZ:

Ensure the safe day to day operation of the aircraft as part of the crew.
Set an example to be followed by all flydubai crew to preserve the corporate image of flydubai.
Ensure all policies and procedures are adhered to by all members of crew.
Notify the company or GCAA of any breaches in SOP or safety through the appropriate reporting medium so that lessons can be learnt by the company to enhance safety.
Ensure he/she is fit to fly at all times and notify the company if not.
Operate the aircraft according to the approved policies and procedures as determined by flydubai and the GCAA.


Reading this thread makes you wonder...
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 04:17
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Lipstick on a Pig

Any consultant can decorate any slave shop with all the huggy fluff HR and Just Culture speak.

Your local CAA will look upon all the copious pious manuals and bestow its blessing
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 04:47
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Indeed, given that the Airline & probably the local CAA are entirely "owned" by the State, don't expect any worthwhile conclusions/revelations from their side. . . .will the Russians have the "Cojones" to rock the boat by making "obvious" the truth, or will it ( & any failing of our "trusty" 737 ) be buried. Pilot error I reckon
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 05:15
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I hate to speculate since we know very little details at this time.
However, every pilot and especially airline management must remember that FATIGUE is the silent killer!
Captain Ross Aimer
UAL Ret.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 07:18
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Am I right that First Officer Cruz's duty on the tenth March was 17.2 hours long and then he had about five hours from hitting the hay to being on call?
If that is correct it is astounding. ( and a criminal offence where I am from).
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 07:32
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I would suggest the finish time for the DXB-DMM-DXB on the 10th is incorrect. Its not that far away. Check the pattern length on the 14th for comparison.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 07:50
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If they went around higher than normal at 1500', and didn't press TOGA..because they were light, didn't have far to climb etc then things can become tricky with the FD and autopilot.. Even the best can become confused when HDG SEL and LVL CHG won't engage and you've got double CWS on the FMA.. Bad weather, middle of the night, tired etc autopilot won't engage because you're still trying to control the aircraft with stick.. Things can go bad fast. Gotta press TOGA but I see its often not done if the G/A is not at minima. Just a thought
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 08:45
  #496 (permalink)  
 
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Alice Clarr,
Yes, this is exactly my thought too.
Also, V10tail said
... The commander wanted to hear it for himself(despite his PF role) when he twice asked "what does the wxr look like outside the your window".He did sound a little lethargic even resigning to me by his inflexion. He probably commenced that second approach half heartedly knowing the reported perils awaiting him..which is what prompted the eearly GA...
The "bye bye" after handover from Tower hsd an eerie finality to it.I believe they had enough! The cheerful melodic " SkyDubai 981 Going Around" had an sense of relief in its inflexion..I believe they were imagining going somewhere less perilious...but little did they or their poor souls know that within a minute it would all end as a devastating tragedy...
I would add, in clouds, heavy turbulence, both noses into FMS, unaware of A/P not engaged, yes things go bad very fast... God rest their soul on peace.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 09:08
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Originally Posted by notapilot15
Well one thing PR teams circling social media should realize, even if it is human (pilot) error, weather or technical, it is still management's fault. That's how aviation works.

Fatigue if applicable, is management induced.
Lack of training is management fault.
Sending into bad weather knowingly is management fault.
Bad maintenance is management's fault.

I know it is virgin territory and bosses are working on scripts to deal with it, but proving it as pilot error doesn't make management not guilty.

Roster may look legal on paper but when you consider all off-the-record things like wake up calls 3 hours before ... humanly impossible in the long run.

But we all know as long as these airlines offer cheaper fares and sleepy blue eyed FAs pax wouldn't care if the flight crew got any sleep or not. That is a fact.
Yep and sadly despite all that somehow "IF" it was pilot error something along the lines of "the pilots failed to report fatigued" or words similar would appear, let's hope if that is the case that, there is a little deeper digging that goes along the line of, " it is believed the reasons for this is ......" and a deep digging into the safety culture, rostering, previous fatigue reports, actions taken to improve things etc etc..... Sadly I doubt that will happen, fatigue only ever seems to get s glancing mention when in reality is likely one of THE major contributing factors.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 09:10
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I would suggest the finish time for the DXB-DMM-DXB on the 10th is incorrect. Its not that far away. Check the pattern length on the 14th for comparison.
Yes but either the flight pattern was rostered to have a lengthy delay on the ground, or, as with my company, once the duty has been completed the 'actual' times are displayed on the roster which are sourced from the acars OOOI message. I think it is much more likely that the times shown are correct and are what actually occurred and that the original roster showed a standard pattern.
In all airlines I have worked for the crew would have realised they would bust duty limits and go off to a hotel.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 09:36
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Framer, rather than guess check the airlines time table. Flight 863 departs DXB at 0730 (dxb) and arrives DMM at 07.55 local, departs 0840 local arriving DXB at 1110. Even if he did a double shuttle flight 865 departs DXB at 1410 and is back into DXB at 1725. So yes, I still believe that the roster shown may be in error in this case.

Its great to know you would not bust FTLs (you legend). There is nothing saying this FO did either. Unless you have facts stop trying to degrade him.
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Old 23rd Mar 2016, 09:55
  #500 (permalink)  
 
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Another CCTV camera

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nzc4LHF4Xls
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