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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

Old 22nd Mar 2016, 17:09
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Chronos - It is not at all premature.

Rather like your relationship with Mrs or Mr Chronos or your cat(delete as required) is based on physical AND Emotional factors.

Every pilot knows that there are numerous factors involved in the chain of events leading up to an accident.

The physical what happened on night, that is speculation right now.

The emotional, how pilots feel, morale, conditions of work, work ethic and why they were even there on a dark and dirty night are likely "more" responsible whatever the outcome of the NTSB/AAIB pure technical & flight factors. The we already know. That is what we're talking about.

It is not premature discussion at all it is highly pertinent. Now thanks to a brave soul in Doha on RT breaking international news and massively relevant. In fact so relevant that I would wonder why anyone would think it not!
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 17:14
  #462 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by NeuroAvGeek
Vortex Thing,

I know it goes against industry dogma, but if the safety culture is so bad and it stems from the chief pilot's office, why not leak something to the media? The public loves a scapegoat especially one with a face to blame, why not let that be Vial's (or whomever's) face?

Especially if the company takes a financial hit, they'll be looking to reform their public image...
NeuroAvGeek I think you'll find that happened already!
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 17:15
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In the video posted above by skadi, following go around, the aircraft is out of sight in the clouds for approximately 36 seconds, reappears and impacts in about 3 1/2 seconds.
The interesting thing to me is that the azimuth of disappearance and azimuth of reappearance are extremely close to each other.
This implies that the pull up was extremely steep, possibly greater than 30 degrees nose up.

The other interesting thing in the video was the way that the trees above the building on the left side of the video were whipping around in the wind. It was a rather wild night even if the visibility was reasonably good.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 17:27
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One of the links armchairpilot94116 posted is an article by Professor Peter B. Ladkin. His formal analysis of accident causality has had broad influence in aviation safety the past couple of decades. And, he often posts here in PPRuNe as PBL.
Actually, he has no posts since 2011. It was unfortunate that when he did, he came across frequently as completely arrogant when questioned on his opinion. Do a search and decide yourself. I was repeatedly insulted when I questioned his statements on the 757/Tupolev midair over Germany in which he stated that the Tupolev pilot was justified in ignoring the RA, which was directly responsible for that accident by the way. It was quite a disappointing attitude for someone who appears to have written some interesting information.

Anyways, back to thread subject.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 17:41
  #465 (permalink)  
 
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Its a good point comanche. Reminds me of the go around in Hong Kong, where the AP was disengaged (or not properly re-engaged) without the crew realising, and the aircraft wallowed around for many seconds completely uncontrolled in FD (towards Lantau peak I think).
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 18:17
  #466 (permalink)  
 
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Pilots ‘worked to death’: Flydubai whistleblower

Apologies if this has already been posted:
https://www.rt.com/news/336514-flydu...fatigue-crash/

Last edited by Organfreak; 22nd Mar 2016 at 20:01.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 18:25
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On that last video the aircraft does not appear to have made any forward progress over the ground at all between disappearing into IMC and re appearing. That would seem to indicate a vertical or near vertical climb in IMC, or even a loop if it went over onto its back at the apex.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 18:58
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Originally Posted by CAT1
I'm surprised no-one has mentioned the possibility of a flap mis-selection on the go around as a possible cause of the stall.......it's been done to me once in the past, fortunately not with the same results.
Interesting idea - the kind of mistake that's more likely when pilots are fatigued, (it's quite a deliberate effort to actually go past Flap 15 thanks to Mr Boeing's go-around flap notches, but of course the muscle memory is quite adept at moving flaps from 30/40 to 0 after landing). Add a bit of negative sheer at the wrong time and that could do it. Anyway, pure speculation for now - hopefully the FDR will yield some answers soon.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 19:16
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Fatiguing rosters is not just an ME problem. Apparently even BA has many pilots off sick for fatigue. Hence the large recruitment programme.

Last edited by cessnapete; 22nd Mar 2016 at 20:40.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 19:20
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Cessna
BA pilots don't file fatigue reports I've been told so there is no fatigue problem
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 19:22
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Judging by the latest video, my rough estimate would be that they their approximate ROC was 4100 ft/min (considering cloud base at 1500 ft, roughly 19 s before they disappear into the clouds and G/A at initiated at the minimums). If I haven't miscalculated anything that would suggest full G/A thrust. Unfortunately, they came down a lot faster (22000 ft/min).
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 19:26
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The link to first officer roster 452 has gone, can anyone repeat it?
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 19:38
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It's part of the rt.com article linked in a post of the previous page.

Last edited by alainthailande; 23rd Mar 2016 at 07:03. Reason: Link was fixed
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 19:39
  #474 (permalink)  
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Or, try this link:

https://cdn.rt.com/files/2016.03/ori...924c8b456f.jpg
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 19:59
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Originally Posted by Mr Angry from Purley
The link to first officer roster 452 has gone, can anyone repeat it?
Image - TinyPic - Free Image Hosting, Photo Sharing & Video Hosting
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 20:00
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Latest CCTV video was deleted, found it again here linked from RT ;


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifJ9osyLRqQ
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 20:03
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RT Article

Terribly sorry about the bad link. It should work properly now. The editor added an "https://" where I didn't need it.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 20:08
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Vorra, are those hours on the roster local time or Zulu?

Last edited by TypeIV; 22nd Mar 2016 at 20:20.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 20:37
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You don't file reports. You call in sick, reason fatigue. This guy off for 4 weeks.
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Old 22nd Mar 2016, 21:01
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Just a thought for those not considering a stall or part of one.
Reports of very strong LOW LEVEL jet have been around.
It does not indicate the direction of these winds. Maybe it can be derived from other data?
Should a sudden wind change occur during the missed approach, flying at clean speed up to possible even FL080, this could've possibly caused a stall on a wingtip, then (pitch) up and (wing) over is possible with this design when one one wing is affected.
Not saying this has happened, but with a speed of 197 it appears logical and thus possible as the clean speed for the aircraft is not much higher then this at the weights flown.
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