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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

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B-738 Crash in Russia Rostov-on-Don

Old 25th Mar 2016, 16:09
  #661 (permalink)  
 
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Zoom

This is a zoom of the critical event.

At time 2512 V/S starts reducing from peak value of 4,000 fpm.

In the 12 secs before it had increased very significantly from 2,000 fpm to 4,000 fpm, aircraft climbed from 2,900 to 3,600.

In the same period GS had increased from 166 to 180 KT.

The event happens suddenly after a significant increase in ROC and GS.

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Old 25th Mar 2016, 16:13
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In the Colgan accident, they might have got away with it had they not retracted flap.
This accident could be explained by an early flap retraction, followed by a stall.

Clearly, they would normally accelerate first, but perhaps things happened in the wrong order due to a combination of tiredness, bad weather and business as they started to get on with the inevitable diversion.

I wonder if their decision to go straight back to FL80 contributed?
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 16:22
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GRND SPD ADDED FOR ALT



Imho flap retraction does not fit into this graph.

I know, GS <> IAS and Stall happens from AoA, but 30 secs before the event, they were climbing at 6,000 ft/min with 20 KTS less GS, and did not drop.

Last edited by threemiles; 25th Mar 2016 at 16:40.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 17:34
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The climb rate would increase once the speed reaches the bugged speed. Up to the point of the sudden descent, this looks normal.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 17:59
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If, as others have said, the profile looks normal until flap retraction... What about some kind of asymmetry on LE or TE devices? How much of a split can develop before some sort of asymmetry protection stops movement?
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 18:29
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Flaps assymetry is automatically stopped by the fseu.
Some assymetry is not an issue and can be easily be controlled.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 18:56
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Just announced on Russia tv channel to deliver last minute CVR data
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 19:10
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Just delivered:
- don't worry, don't worry
- don't do it
- pull up, pull up
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 20:19
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Flap assymetry isn't going to result in a sudden dive more or less holding the runway QFU.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 20:28
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Not sure where those graphs are coming from but the last tracker blip I found showed a GS of 90 knots at 700 MSL.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 20:35
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Ground Speed

I think the low ground speed is because they were going down steeply and not much movement across the ground.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 20:50
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...and if you think about it, as soon as they have pitched down significantly, the differential between GS and IAS is going to widen. This makes things like stalls unlikely, especially as the wings have been unloaded.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 20:56
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Don't Do WHAT???

Just delivered:
- don't worry, don't worry
- don't do it
- pull up, pull up
I wonder what somebody didn't want done?
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 21:07
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https://www.rt.com/news/337128-emira...tigue-scandal/

Looks like the can of worms is finally opening for all to see.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 21:07
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Russian state TV claims to have obtained leaked transcript of the voice recorder which has the last words of the crew.

Video of the their analysis.
?????.Ru: ?? ????????, ????: ? ??? ?????? ?????? "??????" ?? ??????? ?? ????????

I will translate it and post it soon.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 21:08
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Originally Posted by 737er
Not sure where those graphs are coming from but the last tracker blip I found showed a GS of 90 knots at 700 MSL.
csv file on FR24 blog site
90 kts not on there
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 21:23
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Originally Posted by flash8
https://www.rt.com/news/337128-emira...tigue-scandal/

Looks like the can of worms is finally opening for all to see.
Definitely looks like someone is scraping away the Emirates veneer with a blowtorch.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 21:26
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Very rough Google translation of spitfire's link, request fluent speaker:

Became known to the crew last word "Boeing", crashed in Rostov-on-Don. They do not reveal the whole story of what happened, but allow us to make some conclusions.

Today revision "Vesti" program has at its disposal information that leads us back to the recent disaster, "Boeing" in Rostov-on-Don. This interpretation of the last words of the crew, a minute before the collision with the ground. The document is not official, from sources in the commission of inquiry, which shifted voice recorder information to the paper. Without claiming to be the truth - it is only the investigation findings - Now we try to simulate the situation that prevailed before the disaster aboard.

Thus, Boeing-737-800 company FlyDubai in harsh weather conditions was not able to land in Rostov and the aircraft commander - 37-year-old Aristos Socratous decides to go to the second round. At this time, the autopilot operates. Time 1 hour 40 minutes 00 seconds GMT.

"We collect 50" - is care echelon of 1500 meters. Boeing raised to an angle of 15 degrees, it is normal mode. In these shots we see how the plane goes up, going beyond the view of the camera surveillance. Climb machine continues 40 seconds. Not reaching echelon commander disengages the autopilot. The reason is not yet clear. Maybe the plane hit - slang for pilots - in atmospheric scissors, it could greatly revive. But with this second, after disconnecting the autopilot, "Boeing" dives down. And these are the words of transcripts translated us into the Russian language, which sounded in the cockpit for clarity: "Do not worry, pull!". Time 1 hour 40 minutes and 40 seconds GMT.

That is, the pilots could not do anything with the aircraft, which flew nose to the ground. Version professionals such. Disabling automatic pilot tried to bring "Boeing" in horizontal flight, but at this moment in the dive mode is activated stabilizer, it is in the keel. In this mode, the elevator is no longer effective and practical does not respond to the helm of the aircraft and the pilots apparently did not realize that a sharp peak at fault stabilizer.

Why are joined at the peak of the stabilizer mode - question. He is driven by a button that pilots call "knyupel". That is, during turbulence commander going into manual mode, can accidentally catch the knyupel, and did not notice, as complained before on chronic fatigue. Otherwise - it is any more unprecedented automation surprise.

The last six seconds in the cockpit, according to our source, is heard a....scream. We did not play it. Plane crashes with an acceleration in the land of 1 hour 41 minutes and 00 seconds GMT. Killing all 62 people. Once again, the official conclusions about the causes of the disaster can only be made on the results of the investigation.

Last edited by Leightman 957; 25th Mar 2016 at 21:38.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 21:30
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just translating now, standby.
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Old 25th Mar 2016, 21:38
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Accidental un recognized autopilot disconnect with high nose att??????
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