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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 14th Nov 2015, 08:39
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upsss. any idea from which accident is that?
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 10:52
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The QZ8501 final report will be released on November 25th, according to Soerjanto Tjahjono, head of Indonesia's National Transportation Safety Committee.

Indonesia to Announce AirAsia Crash Probe Results on November 25
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Old 14th Nov 2015, 11:40
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QZ8501 PK-AXC crash report

It was supposed to be out in August.
JAKARTA (AFP) - Indonesia will release the final report on last year's AirAsia plane crash by August, the transport minister told AFP this week.
The Airbus 320-200 went down in the Java Sea on Dec 28 in stormy weather with 162 people on board, during what was supposed to be a short trip from the Indonesian city of Surabaya to Singapore.
"(The NTSC) promised (the final report) will be released by August," transport minister Ignasius Jonan told AFP in an interview, referring to the National Transportation Safety Committee which is conducting the investigation.
The NTSC reports to the president and coordinates with the transport ministry.
Mr Jonan said that the parties involved in the investigation, including plane manufacturer Airbus and AirAsia, must accept the committee's findings and not interfere in the inquiry. "I have instructed the NTSC that the report must be as independent as possible," he said.
ICAO has stated the investigation should aim at preventing future accidents, not apportioning blame or liability.
The minister refused to reveal anything further about the investigation, pending publication of the final report.


Now it is to be on 25 Nov 2015.
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 10:22
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QZ8501

Surely an accurate and fully completed report in November is better than an incomplete one in August ?
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 12:09
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August would seem too soon. Reports from the major countries seem to take at least a year.

Plus the Indonesians have a lot of current investigations going on at present if all the other recent accidents and incidents are being investigated.
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 12:27
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And the BEA is involved too (F/O French nationality), itself involved in many foreign reports
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 15:42
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Mr Jonan said that the parties involved in the investigation, including plane manufacturer Airbus and AirAsia, must accept the committee's findings and not interfere in the inquiry. "I have instructed the NTSC that the report must be as independent as possible," he said.
Observance of the independence of the investigation will be the key to the quality of the investigation. The longer these things take to publish, the more I worry about special interests having a sway in the report.

The core of the "what happened" should be available mostly from the flight recorders.
The interpretation of why the accident happened requires some careful study of how the systems functions and how humans respond.
Hopefully we will learn something new about flying the Airbus that can be used to prevent future accidents.
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Old 15th Nov 2015, 16:02
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Originally Posted by Machinbird
. . . The longer these things take to publish, the more I worry about special interests having a sway in the report.

. . . .
Machinbird, agree with you but, (and I know you know this, but for the sake of the discussion), there's a difference between the expertise required of all parties, and their particular "interests" in a "favourable-to-them" outcome.

Also, I think the requirement that everyone must agree prior to the release of the report, (which may have contributed to the new release date), is not prime requisite for a good report. In reality, there is never full concurrence in such matters, and dissent is important for understanding.

Dissent always exists of course but how it is handled differs between cultures. I think in such work dissent should be assessed for what it offers, (assuming it comes from equal levels of expertise and not mere politics or 'face').

I agree with you also that the human factors will be of interest, particularly, as you say, how the crew was interacting. IIRC, I believe it was the F/O who was flying?
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 14:50
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NTSC now says the Final Report will not be released until December 1, 2pm Jakarta time.
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Old 19th Nov 2015, 16:05
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PACTA SUNT SERVANDA]...:-(
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Old 26th Nov 2015, 06:22
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Is EASA AD 2014-0217R1 Relevant ??

“EASA Airworthiness Directive 2014-0217R1, dated February 26, 2015 (referred to after this as the Mandatory Continuing Airworthiness Information, or ''the MCAI''), to correct an unsafe condition.The MCAI states: During design reviews that were conducted following safety recommendations related to in-service incidents and one accident on another aircraft type, it has been determined that, in specific flight conditions, the allowable load limits on the vertical tail plane could be reached and possibly exceeded.This condition, if not corrected, could lead, in the worst case, to detachment of the vertical tail plane in flight and consequent loss of the aeroplane.To prevent such a possibility, Airbus has developed modifications within the flight augmentation computer (FAC) to reduce the vertical tail plane stress and to activate a conditional aural warning within the flight warning computer (FWC) to further protect against pilot induced rudder doublets.”
“Consequently, EASA issued AD 2014-0217to require installation and activation of the stop rudder input warning (SRIW) logic. In addition, that [EASA] AD required, prior to or concurrent with modification of an aeroplane with the activation of the SRIW, upgrades of the FAC and FWC, to introduce the SRIW logic and SRIW aural capability, respectively. After modification, the [EASA] AD prohibited installation of certain Part Number (P/N) FWC and FAC.”
“Since that [EASA] AD was issued, an additional previously-published Airbus Service Bulletin (SB) was identified, and a new SB was published, for the concurrent requirement to replace the FAC with a unit having a P/N as listed in Table 3 of Appendix 1 of the AD.”
Source; Referenced in FAA AD 2015-23-13.All A-318, 319, 320, and A321 series airplanes.Allowable load limits on the vertical tail plane could be reached and possibly exceeded. Exceeding allowable load could result in detachment of the vertical tail plane.
SUMMARY:“This AD was prompted by a determination that, in specific flight conditions, the allowable load limits on the vertical tail plane could be reached and possibly exceeded. Exceeding allowable load could result in detachment of the vertical tail plane. This AD requires modification of the pin programming flight warning computer (FWC) to activate the stop rudder input warning (SRIW) logic; and an inspection to determine the part numbers of the FWC and the flight augmentation computer (FAC), and replacement of the FWC and FAC if necessary. We are issuing this AD to prevent detachment of the vertical tail plane and consequent loss of control of the airplane.Effective December 29, 2015.”Compliance within 48 months.
“We estimate that this AD affects 953 airplanes of U.S. registry.We also estimate that it will take about 3 work-hours per product to comply with the basic requirements of this AD. The average labor rate is $85 per work-hour. Based on these figures, we estimate the cost of this AD on U.S. operators to be $243,015, or $255 per product.”
FAA ADLink >http://www.airweb.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgad.nsf/0/41103a24e0131b2286257f0700529ecf/$FILE/2015-23-13.pdf
ALSO REFERENCED IN THIS FAA AD.
NTSB SAFETY RECCOMMENDATIONS A-04-56 through -62.Letterto FAA Administrator Marion C. Blakey, dated November 10, 2004 addressed the loss of American Airlines Flight 587 on Nov 12, 2001.NTSB Letter Link> http://www.ntsb.gov/safety/safety-recs/recletters/A04_56_62.pdf
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Old 26th Nov 2015, 13:11
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Thank you Data guy : very important posts in both threads ! (Singapore ans Sinaï)
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Old 26th Nov 2015, 14:39
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It is possibly relevant, but as a background, AD 2014-0217 was originally issued in mid-2014 (before the AirAsia accident) in response to the AA587 A300-600 accident in Queens -- referred to in the AD as "one accident on another aircraft type" -- and a second incident on an A319. The AD added logic to reduce tail plane stress and to activate a Stop Rudder Input Warning (SRIW) function.

The AD quoted above (2014-0217R1) was a revision to update the minimum FAC part numbers required to support SRIW. This revision was requested by Airbus because the original AD had left out a couple Service Bulletins. (The updated SBs were also issued before the AirAsia accident).

Now according to rumors... on the accident aircraft both FACs were shut-off simultaneously, possibly via circuit breakers. If true, then the above AD is a moot point really. The FACs can't provide protections if they are turned off.

So although the AirAsia accident might have involved rudder limits, the above AD was not released in response to this accident, and the promulgated changes even if implemented wouldn't have had any bearing on the accident's outcome.
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Old 26th Nov 2015, 16:39
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and to activate a conditional aural warning within the flight warning computer (FWC) to further protect against pilot induced rudder doublets.”
Great.
Another sound that the pilot has to respond to immediately, probably under conditions of great stress.
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Old 26th Nov 2015, 17:17
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It's "only" a warning... the FAC should automatically limit rudder loads regardless of pilot response.
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Old 27th Nov 2015, 12:45
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From the BBC, 27 November 2015:

AirAsia shares slide on poor earnings results - BBC News

Next week, Indonesia's national transport safety board is expected to announce the findings of AirAsia's deadly crash that occurred in December 2014 ...
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Old 28th Nov 2015, 06:55
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Some FAC Rudder Faults

Just *Some FAC computer failure SDRs.


(*Data is limited because SDR non-reporting is still running at over 60 % for this year).

12 A-300 Series SDRs /Problem Descriptions / (Cause) FAC Computer / Part Number (P/N).

Briefs Only.See SDR Full Texts at FAA Query, Link > http://av-info.faa.gov/sdrx/Query.aspxJust enter SDR Number, and Hit Query.

3/20/14.SDR # and Link > USAA2014032100017 “Tail kicked, bumped multible times”. P/N B397BAM0513.
6/30/13.SDR # and Link > USAA2013070100015 “Banked, Felt in Rudder Pedals”. P/N B397BAM0513.
6/3/13. SDR # and Link > USAA2013060400023 “Uncommandedmomentary input”. P/N B397BAM0513.
12/7/12. SDR # and Link > USAA2012121000012 “Yawed – 5 seconds”.P/N B397BAM0513.
8/10/12. SDR # and Link > USAA2012081300019 “Fast uncommanded movement”. P/N B397BAM0513.
7/25/12. SDR # and Link > UALA2012072704071 “Uncommanded movement”. P/N B397BAM0513.
4/19/10. SDR # and Link > UALA2010041901293 “Substantial yaw”.P/N 3945128206.
3/19/11. SDR # and Link > UALA2011032101332 “Sudden yaw movement’. P/N B397BAM0513.
2/2/10.SDR # and Link > UALA2010020300427 “Yaw felt in cockpit”.P/N B397BAM0513.
4/14/09.SDR # and Link > CA090421011“Rudder kick, veered on runway”. P/N B397BAM0513.
5/13/07.SDR # and Link > NWAA071863251“Hard rudder kick”.P/NB397BAM0515.
12/3/02.SDR # and Link > AALA20021725 “Yawed Several Times”. P/NB471AAM7.Also see ASRS Report # 567765, - “61 PRIOR EVENTS”.


End --
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Old 30th Nov 2015, 18:19
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QZ8501 WARMUP

We must be getting close. The local news is in anticipation of the accident report:
AirAsia QZ8501 crash findings expected on Tuesday - Channel NewsAsia
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Old 30th Nov 2015, 18:27
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Per earlier report (last page), the NTSC press conference is still scheduled for December 1, 2pm Jakarta time (less than 12 hours from now...)
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Old 1st Dec 2015, 06:10
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To sum up the report in three words.

Rubbish Training standards. In all corners of their business.
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