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MH17 down near Donetsk

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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 19th Jul 2014, 08:07
  #421 (permalink)  
 
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At least the last ten flights of MAS17 took a more southerly route - over the Sea of Azov or even over the Black Sea - kind of avoiding the Donezk region.

Malaysia Airlines (MH) #17 ? 15-Jul-2014 ? EHAM / AMS - WMKK / KUL ? FlightAware


What would be the reasons to take a more northerly route this day?
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 08:09
  #422 (permalink)  
 
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At least the last ten flights of MAS17 took a more southerly route - over the Sea of Azov or even over the Black Sea - kind of avoiding the Donezk region.

Malaysia Airlines (MH) #17 ? 15-Jul-2014 ? EHAM / AMS - WMKK / KUL ? FlightAware


What would be the reasons to take a more northerly route this day?
The reason MH17 took this route was a thunderstorm along the way, as far as I know.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 08:12
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the routes can and will change according to the forecast winds as well. you don't want to be flying into a 100kt headwind if you can avoid it.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 08:13
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Ditto

BUK missile launcher shown in Russian separatist stronghold before MH17 crash | Mail Online
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 08:26
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A note for the uninformed. The Buk warhead is a bundle of hardened steel rods according a reliable source. The warhead is proximity fused and fires some distance from the target. It produces a shotgun like dispersion of rods which do the damage since the missile is travelling at Mach 3+.

There is thus no burning wreckage or blast effects. The image on page 21 shows perforations which look consistent with that type of warhead. Rods fragments should be found in the wreckage or the bodies. A high speed upset following loss of control might account for the airframe breakup.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 08:34
  #426 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by amizaur
Those scars looks rather like something hit or slided on that surface - possibly other plane fragments hit that fragment when it was desintegrating in the air - than holes/marks left by small shrapnels from exploding warhead.
That is also consistent with an expanding rod. It expands as a continuous ring to maximum diameter, typically 45-60 feet before separating. Rod may be inches to feet long.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 08:43
  #427 (permalink)  
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All this talk of 'seeing' the aircraft is nonsense.

Try this yourself a few times:

Spot a high flying aircraft. Watch and time it till you no longer see it.
3 minutes is 24 miles, 6 is 48.

How long after you saw it could you count the engines?

As a rule you will first see it closer than the distance that you lose it. At 6 minutes that means about 12 miles.

Then passengers seeing something 55 miles away - no way. If they were looking out at all cloud would obscure the view.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 08:53
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Its an early US design, but link explains the principle of expanding rod warheads with pictures.

Talos Missile Warhead History
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 09:50
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The picture seems pretty clear to me, that Russian rebels shot down the plane with the BUK missiles they already admitted they had, and were negligent in doing so.

In addition, I would put about 20% of the blame on the Kiev government. It was clear from the 29th June, when the rebels admitted having access to BUK missiles that the airspace should have been closed. The rebels were taking pot shots at a sky that almost inevitably would result in a plane going down. So why was airspace not closed? It's ludicrous the 32000 ft safety limit when the missiles known to be available to the rebels had a vertical limit of 25km and a 95% kill efficacy (according to Wiki). The Kiev government was also either negligent or cynically deliberate.

To me it is analogous to having a school run bisecting a military shooting range. Who is at fault? The school for organising the daily school run, the parents for letting it happen, or the soldiers who continue with their practice pot shots, without checking what targets they were shooting at? All three I would say.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 09:54
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Qui bono?

I am rather surprised that nobody mentioned the simple reason why would rebels want to shoot down an airliner:

They don't have air force thus anything in the air is either neutral or an enemy. After MH17 the air space is closed and anything that moves is a free game for their air defence.

Another reason would be to escalate the conflict per se. Even if supported by Russia now they can see that Putin is apparently satisfied with holding Krym now in his hands and nobody is talking about annexation anymore and there is enough stuff for international media to talk about. Krym is still the main issue and it is forgotten now.

It seems that Putin is not willing to use the military force to engage directly but is aiming similar status quo like Transnistria. But Moldova and Ukraine is quite a difference and rebels may try to escalate conflict to bait Putin. In the beginning Putin made them believe he would back them up directly but in my opinion he never intended to acquire more than Krym and to destabilise Ukraine.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 10:01
  #431 (permalink)  
 
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A month ago the militia complained of Ukrainian fighter jets trying to trick them into downing passenger planes. Explained in video from 18th of June.
Not sure if this can be verified. Surely the Russians are closely monitoring the airspace and if this is true, would be able to produce radar evidence of this happening. If true, Ukraine would be guilty of using air liners as 'human shields'. If the video is fabricated and is part of the a plan to eventually down an airliner to discredit Ukraine, then it would be a very serious crime.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 10:08
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Malaysia Air crash: Missile launcher used to down jet likely back in Russia, US official says | Fox News
The missile launcher used to down Malaysia Air flight MH17 is probably back in Russia after it was imported into Ukraine a few weeks ago, a well-placed source with access to the latest intelligence told Fox News Friday night.
Meanwhile, the same source said the missile that brought down the plane, killing all 298 on board, was fired from Schnidze, a town in eastern Ukraine.
"We are building a case," the senior U.S. official told Fox News. "It is damn near bulletproof at this point."
The local separatist commander who likely ordered the strike, Igor Strelkov -- who was heard in some of the phone intercepts released by the Ukrainian Interior Ministry bragging about having brought down the plane -- will likely be punished by Moscow, according to a well-placed source.
The fact the same commander has given interviews stating that some of the body's where already dead, insinuating a conspiracy to set them up says lots.

In effect he knows the evidence that they did it is there and the Russians and Americans know it. Hence its a PR exercise to create doubt and justify it.

At the moment there is a plane down, bodies rotting in a field and evidence being tampered with in a country that is friendly to us. This is a damning indictment of the state of our nations that there isn't a force on the ground securing the area.

The Ukrainian forces have been neglected, and have done a great job so far considering. Be under no illusions about the rebels having much luck against a well armed and supported western force.

Putin doesn't want to escalate this much, an Invitation by the Ukraine for outside forces to secure the area would see the rebels melt away from that area.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 10:23
  #433 (permalink)  
 
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I don't know me and a lad from REME got given a rapier system to fix.

It took the two of us 30 mins to set up with him directing, an hour to fix the thing, then 30 mins "testing" it pointing it at passing aircraft. It didn't have bang loaded but I reckon both of us would have hit things.

Tanks etc don't even have keys to start them. The weapon systems have interlocks to stop you killing yourself but if all of them are in and you press or pull the tit it will fire.

All you one need is one person that is a No 1(commander) or technician for the weapon system and you can use it.

Hell at 17 years old I was firing light guns and FH70 as the gunners were a man shy of a gun crew to drive the wagon and someone thought it was funny to put me on the sights.

Maintaining them and keeping them working is a bit of a pig but the actual deploying and firing of a working system is easy. Hell if it was difficult they wouldn't give them to the gunners, they would give them to the sappers or REME.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 10:28
  #434 (permalink)  
 
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Regarding the tracks on flightaware: Flightaware seems to have a coverage gap in that region, all tracks in that region are just estimates/extrapolations. So tracks from previous days are not precise - they might as well have crossed the same area.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 10:33
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As the last poster suggested there is a lot more going on here than meets the eye, especially if the eye looks no further than the mainstream media.. The harm to Russia caused by damaging their energy economy would be signifcant and was tactic used in the Reagan era where Saudi Arabia increased production to the extent it damaged Russian oil exports and crippled their economy.

I personally do not want to be dependent on the USA for energy any more than I do Russia. In many ways they are both as bad as each other, big bully nations with a huge sense of entitlement and have proved many times that they do not care who gets in their way.

One thing that is guaranteed is that the team who shot this plane down are in a world of trouble , if the West finds them its 30 years in jail , but that unlikely because the KGB or whatever they are called this week will find them first and I doubt thier life span will be 30 days after causing Putin a huge amount of grief and to send a clear message out not to embarrass mother Russia.
Russia is culpable to the extent that it knows what psychotic idiots some of the rebels are and failed to stop them getting their hands on anything serious. But then arming unsuitable people is a long established superpower game , Rumsfeld armed the iraqis and the CIA armed the Taliban to name two examples and Russia literally gave the world the AK47.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 10:37
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Passagiata

Quote:
smuggles out wreckage with proof of an external explosion
Isnt it external explosion if air-to-air missile was used ?
Quote:
A massive reward of millions (and safe harbour in the West)
another words "bribe by the west"...so desperately needed these days
Greenguard only the second quote was mine ... the first one was Dozy's ...
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 10:55
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With the risk of being a left-leaning communist..., a quote from RT article on what the official Russia via Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov, addressing Ukraine:

TEN QUESTIONS FOR THE UKRAINIAN AUTHORITIES
1. Immediately after the tragedy, the Ukrainian authorities, naturally, blamed it on the self-defense forces. What are these accusations based on?

2. Can Kiev explain in detail how it uses Buk missile launchers in the conflict zone? And why were these systems deployed there in the first place, seeing as the self-defense forces don’t have any planes?

3. Why are the Ukrainian authorities not doing anything to set up an international commission? When will such a commission begin its work?

4. Would the Ukrainian Armed Forces be willing to let international investigators see the inventory of their air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles, including those used in SAM launchers?

5. Will the international commission have access to tracking data from reliable sources regarding the movements of Ukrainian warplanes on the day of the tragedy?

6. Why did Ukrainian air traffic controllers allow the plane to deviate from the regular route to the north, towards “the anti-terrorist operation zone”?

7. Why was airspace over the warzone not closed for civilian flights, especially since the area was not entirely covered by radar navigation systems?

8. How can official Kiev comment on reports in the social media, allegedly by a Spanish air traffic controller who works in Ukraine, that there were two Ukrainian military planes flying alongside the Boeing 777 over Ukrainian territory?

9. Why did Ukraine’s Security Service start working with the recordings of communications between Ukrainian air traffic controllers and the Boeing crew and with the data storage systems from Ukrainian radars without waiting for international investigators?

10. What lessons has Ukraine learned from a similar incident in 2001, when a Russian Tu-154 crashed into the Black Sea? Back then, the Ukrainian authorities denied any involvement on the part of Ukraine’s Armed Forces until irrefutable evidence proved official Kiev to be guilty.
A few valid points here IMHO
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 10:55
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the big ones that can go high are the size of a lorry and the ones which are man portable are about the size of an average bloke.

The big ones though need an additional radar feed for targeting which is another unit about the same size of the launcher.
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 10:56
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A note for the uninformed. The Buk warhead is a bundle of hardened steel rods according a reliable source. The warhead is proximity fused and fires some distance from the target. It produces a shotgun like dispersion of rods which do the damage since the missile is travelling at Mach 3+.

There is thus no burning wreckage or blast effects. The image on page 21 shows perforations which look consistent with that type of warhead. Rods fragments should be found in the wreckage or the bodies. A high speed upset following loss of control might account for the airframe breakup.
Interestingly, bobik_57 is claiming that those marks provide evidence in support of an air-to-air missile: bobik_57 - ??? ? ?????? ???????? ??. ?????? ?? "???-?1" (Google Translate does a passable job on the text).
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Old 19th Jul 2014, 11:20
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On Breitbart (James Delingpole)

Dangerous Escalation in Ukraine: Separatists May Have Captured More than 100 Missiles

The situation in Ukraine may be even more dangerous and unstable than we feared. According to this report from the Russian media, the separatists widely blamed for shooting down Malaysia Airlines MH17 are in control not just of one Buk missile launcher but a whole regiment of them.
The self-defense forces of Donetsk People’s Republic seized control of a Ukrainian anti-air military installation, RIA Novosti reports.
"The forces of Donetsk People’s Republic assumed control of A-1402 military base," the militia's representative said. According to him, it is an anti-aircraft missile forces facility equipped with Buk mobile surface-to-air missile systems.
During the last several days the militia took control of two internal security troops' installations in eastern Ukraine.
This report, from the end of last month, has had little play in the Western media, which has preferred to focus on reports from security sources that the rocket launchers (and tanks and APCs) used by the separatists were supplied by the Putin regime.

But if it is correct, then it would seem that the Russian separatists had by the end of June already captured more than enough missiles to wreak havoc. According to defence analyst Richard North, we can assume that the anti-air installation comprised at least three batteries, each with four mobile launchers carrying four missiles, which means a minimum of 48 missiles even before allowing for replenishments that could bring the total stock to more than 100.

"It is enough to sterilise air movement in the whole of Eastern Ukraine, which fundamentally alters the balance of power in the region," says North. "Worse it means that these weapons are in the hands of militia groups who are a accountable to nobody and a danger to everybody - including the Russians. If so, then Western leaders may be adopting the wrong tone in pinning the blame on Putin. They should be working together with Putin to bring these dangerous militias under control."
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