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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 20:55
  #7561 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
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Originally Posted by Tourist View Post
Lord Spandex

If the aircraft was in trim with engines providing thrust, it would no longer be trimmed after engine failure.
Good point. I thought the post everyone was responding to (which I can't find now) intimated that it was trimmed correctly after the engines had failed.

In your case wouldn't it be less likely to stall as the loss of thrust would cause a nose down response anyway?
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 21:25
  #7562 (permalink)  
 
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(can only downlink pictures when in range of an earth station)
I think you'll find that more sophisticated space imagery users have high-bandwidth relay satellites. Sensitive information need never travel down from low Earth orbit.

As to changing orbit - it can be done, but unless it's a pressing urgent life-threatening need, just wait for the orbit to come good.

Good to see that there's apparently some French radar data being reported. I trust it's close in time to the crash, and might provide a chance to find the sea floor wreck, and with it the data recorders.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 21:28
  #7563 (permalink)  
 
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Question Missed communications?

Here's one for you to tear apart (please excuse the vague nature of the question, I'm trying to not direct you down any particular line of enquiry):

Can you think of any possible reasons for which a pilot could have thought he were communicating correctly with an ATC but wasn't receiving acknowledgements, or attempting to make contact and failing?
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 21:33
  #7564 (permalink)  
 
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Safe cargo

If, and a big if, Malaysia Airlines was carrying something dangerous, but proclaimed not dangerous due all ICAO/IATA regulations having been complied with, then you need your memory refreshed with this incident on 15 March 2000 which totalled one of their A330-332 - 9M-MKB:-

After arrival from a flight from Beijing, baggage handlers were unloading 80 canisters weighing 2,000kg when they were hit by the strong toxic fumes. Five ground handlers became ill while unloading the canisters.
A check by airport fire and rescue personnel revealed the canisters contained a chemical called oxalyl chloride. Several canisters had leaked, causing severe damage to the aircraft fuselage. The aircraft was considered damaged beyond repair.
After a five-year lawsuit a Beijing court ordered Dalian, a Chinese state-run company, to pay USD65 million in compensation, plus interest, for destroying the Airbus A330 with falsely declared cargo with corrosive chemicals. The company had mis-identified the canisters as being a safe powder-type chemical.
(ASN Aircraft accident Airbus A330-322 9M-MKB Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KUL))

I was told the sheet-metal toolboxes belonging to the mechanics who went into the hold to check on the damage, disintegrated due to corrosion within a matter of hours!
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 21:34
  #7565 (permalink)  
 
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follow all leads

With an open mind to all possibilities, the skipper's call from a fraudulently-obtained phone story appears to be gathering momentum: Flight MH370: Pilot's last phone call - World - NZ Herald News
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 21:36
  #7566 (permalink)  
 
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Fire hypothesis

Swissair 111 offers the best comparison for a hypothesis. The electrical short caused a fire, which was detected by the crew 53 minutes after departure. 13 minutes after that a rapid succession of aircraft systems failure were recorded on the FDR`s. About a minute later comms and SSR were lost. About five minutes later the aircraft crashed into the sea. The crew must have become incapacitated in that time frame of 14 minutes. In the case of Swissair 111 the fire was all too consuming so as to incapacitate not only the crew but also the aircraft.

In such a scenario, in the case of MH370, it follows that the crew alone must have been incapacitated, the aircraft`s flight control systems must have proven sufficently robust and in conformity with their manufacturing specifications and design criteria for the aircraft to have remained aloft for such a long time thereafter. In such a scenario a ground alert system for crew incapacitation, and for its associated remote and/or on board auto electronic reversionary activation and control system ( analogous to drivers safety device "DSD", also known as a dead mans handle on trains and kill switch on boats) could provide a further redundancy measure for future flight safety. In the case of Swissair 111 the recommendations had also referred to a cockpit camera, installed as part of a such a system, along with continuous flight monitoring, would also be a further deterrent to unlawful intereference with an aircraft by any persons on board.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 21:40
  #7567 (permalink)  
 
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MH370: Bad weather hinders search for missing plane after new satellite images | World news | theguardian.com

Mere SLF here - albeit 40-year, 2-million-plus-mile SLF - but I don't recall seeing a lot of wooden pallets being loaded on aircraft.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 21:52
  #7568 (permalink)  
 
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I think the wreckage will never be found (if there is one).
The fact that US and UK are hardly participating in the primary search area, to me, is a sign that they know more.
Disclosing what they know could breach national security.
Maybe, just maybe, they are out there looking elsewhere and are keeping it under wraps.
US and UK militaries are usually eager to participate both in a supportive role and as a training exercise ... but not this time
Take a guess.
Maybe they are too busy?

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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 21:57
  #7569 (permalink)  
 
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MrDK

You could just as easily argue the opposite.

eg. US UK know where it is, roughly. They had few citizens on board so politically and economically not worth sending more assets.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 21:58
  #7570 (permalink)  
 
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Don't tell anyone, but the UK don't have any MPA anymore. So not much they can do to help with the search.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:01
  #7571 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Capt Kremin View Post

If nothing else, this shows that a "ghost plane" would have taken a curved path to the crash site due to reversionary AP modes and changes in magnetic variation.

Any direct line over such a distance however, must be deliberate programming of the FMC.


Great post Capt Kremin!


Just a small remark/question: Do we have any somewhat reliable indication MH370 did in fact fly straight to this Point? I haven't really seen that mentioned and definitely not confirmed from a reliable source. Did I miss something?


Moreover, should Tim Vasquez be right with his contrail theory, it would look more like the curved line. The angle of that potential contrail in the Meteo Satellite image seems to match your curved line surprisingly well.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:02
  #7572 (permalink)  
 
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deadheader

With an open mind to all possibilities, the skipper's call from a fraudulently-obtained phone story appears to be gathering momentum: Flight MH370: Pilot's last phone call - World - NZ Herald News
Well, the media has certainly added some new spice to this whole enigma.....may not be close to the truth (as track-records has shown), but still spicy!
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:02
  #7573 (permalink)  
 
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...

wirbelsturm, t7 is not auto trimed for speed change. Autopilot is not available on rat power. All mcp controls are dead and fbw is not available in normal mode.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:02
  #7574 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Chronus View Post
Swissair 111 offers the best comparison for a hypothesis. The electrical short caused a fire, which was detected by the crew 53 minutes after departure. 13 minutes after that a rapid succession of aircraft systems failure were recorded on the FDR`s. About a minute later comms and SSR were lost. About five minutes later the aircraft crashed into the sea. The crew must have become incapacitated in that time frame of 14 minutes. In the case of Swissair 111 the fire was all too consuming so as to incapacitate not only the crew but also the aircraft.

In such a scenario, in the case of MH370, it follows that the crew alone must have been incapacitated, the aircraft`s flight control systems must have proven sufficently robust and in conformity with their manufacturing specifications and design criteria for the aircraft to have remained aloft for such a long time thereafter. In such a scenario a ground alert system for crew incapacitation, and for its associated remote and/or on board auto electronic reversionary activation and control system ( analogous to drivers safety device "DSD", also known as a dead mans handle on trains and kill switch on boats) could provide a further redundancy measure for future flight safety. In the case of Swissair 111 the recommendations had also referred to a cockpit camera, installed as part of a such a system, along with continuous flight monitoring, would also be a further deterrent to unlawful intereference with an aircraft by any persons on board.

I think that your description adequately falsifies the fire hypothesis. Swissair 111 crashed inside 20 minutes of fire breaking out. In that time the crew had set up an approach but unfortunately extended it to dump fuel. They had lots of time to talk to ATC about their problem which got steadily worse with molten metal raining down from burning cables in the cockpit roof panels. So even in this really severe emergency they were able to communicate. Swissair 111 burnt out and crashed - it did not fly on for another 7 hours. You have to surmise a fire of Swissair 111 proportions and at the same time a fire that is not of Swissair 111 proportions. These are mutually exclusive states.


Albert Driver in post http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8396452 adequately covers fire issues.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:09
  #7575 (permalink)  
 
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reply

awblain at 1525 posted: ...As to changing orbit - it can be done, but unless it's a pressing urgent life-threatening need, just wait for the orbit to come good.

You can increase or decrease the altitude of orbiting satellites if you are willing to burn precious & limited fuel supply, but changing directions is EXTREMELY limited. Orbiting objects don't make right angle turns.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:09
  #7576 (permalink)  
 
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I'll stick my neck out and hazard that the French have had a good long look through their satellite radar and seen something interesting. If the US (and maybe Russia and China?) can do the same with their views within a few hours of impact, then the mystery might be coming to an end.

And there's still time to catch the sonar beacons in time to have some power left.

Then again, Titanic was found in the end, with only approximate chronometer/sextant positions, so it's not forever hopeless if a ~ten mile position is known.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:10
  #7577 (permalink)  
 
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Ian W
You have to surmise a fire of Swissair 111 proportions and at the same time a fire that is not of Swissair 111 proportions. These are mutually exclusive states.
An oxymoron....pun unintended.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:38
  #7578 (permalink)  
 
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The southern Indian Ocean is a remote area with no major shipping lanes. Ships travel slowly so only ships which are already in the area will join the search. The nearest UK or USA ships were probably a thousand miles away.
A chinese ship happened to be in the area and joined the search.

Simple - Anyone nearby will offer help, everything else would take too long to get there.

I am confident that if the USA were asked to provide extra aircraft they would send some, maybe nobody asked.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:52
  #7579 (permalink)  
 
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Ghost phone

With an open mind to all possibilities, the skipper's call from a fraudulently-obtained phone story appears to be gathering momentum...
I think the media (and possibly the Malaysian government) are making too much of this. We know that Caprain Zaharie was somewhat politically outspoken; it stands to reason that some of his friends would be likewise. With a healthy amount of paranoia, an outspoken critic of the government may well prefer not to make it too easy for the government to listen in on their personal life. Bear in mind that Anwar himself has twice been imprisoned not for crimes against the state but for (alleged) aspects of his personal life.

I'm not suggesting that the Malaysian government is in any way complicit in the disappearance of MH370, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they found some way to leverage it for domestic political advantage. We have already seen attempts to link the incident to the good captain's political alignment.
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Old 23rd Mar 2014, 22:54
  #7580 (permalink)  
 
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Given the quality of the information that has made the current search area the current search area, a single P8 seems to be an appropriate commitment of resources from non-locals.

If and when there's definitely something to see, then a more substantial presence from the airframe and engine manufacturers could be justified.
A game of hunt the faint deep pinger would probably interest most well-equipped navies, with substantial kudos available to the winners; as well as the satisfaction of doing something very concrete for the safety of those millions that take to the air every day.
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