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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 20th Mar 2014, 15:52
  #6601 (permalink)  
 
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Hi,

That image could almost be a section of fuz and wing-roots...with chutes/rafts deployed. It begs the question; What are the sea temps, wind-chill there..? Any maritime survival experts here like to offer chances for survivors..?
If that image is what you says ... this must be a beacon activated ....
Anyways if this was survivors in this zone ... not in raft or any floating object with some protection .. after so long time and with the average temperature .. my best guess is no survival possible
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 15:56
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Originally Posted by Edition12
I hesitate to add to pure speculation; but assuming this large object is part of the aircraft, this would mean we're looking at an impact gentle enough to not send big bits to the bottom, less than 12G to not set the ELT off, but solid enough not let anyone on board switch on the ELT if inclined to do so, nor deploy slides/rafts and trail an EPIRB. Does that sound about right?
ELTs rarely if ever work. When they were discussed previously there were many examples of inadvertent operations but almost no occasions when they have worked.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 15:59
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I posted a comment a couple of days ago saying that if the plane was flying on autopilot following an emergency it would have been difficult for it to have avoided Indonesian airspace. So therefore if it did avoid Indonesia airspace it's probably more evidence that it was being deliberately flown by someone. (I don't think this point was picked up for discussion at that time).
That is exactly the point that I have been trying to make. But it is true that there is now NO direct evidence that the aircraft flew North out of Malaysian Airspace over the Staits of Malacca, out of Indonesian airspace then West, then South again to the South IO, BUT, if actually so, I STONGLY suggest that this was NOT random???

Last edited by philipat; 20th Mar 2014 at 16:09.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:02
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Detachable DFDRs

Can I remind those advocating 'detachable' DFDRs that apart from the obvious difficulty of the device extricating itself from a crushed wreckage, the idea is to locate the wreckage as well as the data recorders.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:03
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I can't see the last-but-one page, so it may have been posted already, but here's an interesting new WSJ article for those who thought Inmarsat took a long time to process and release the satellite data:

Critical Satellite Data Was Delayed in Search for Missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 - WSJ.com
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:13
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RE flight level 450:
That is high enough for the pax to pass out even using the passenger oxygen system
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:14
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How could the plane avoid Indonesian airspace on autopilot?

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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:18
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Originally Posted by dillboy
Are we to assume that the distress radiobeacon failed in this case, or that some of the data that the search and rescue teams have been using includes that received by this device?

I understand that these devices can react to either water immersion or impact forces?

Would be grateful for an answer from someone with knowledge.
Airborne distress beacons (ELTs) differ in design and certification philosophy from the recorders (CVR, FDR) in that they are really only designed to remain operable after survivable accidents and to assist in SAR efforts. The recorders OTOH are designed to contain their recordings in accidents which are not survivable to the crew and passengers, to assist in a different post crash activity, accident investigation.

The weakest link in airframe mounted ELTs is the antenna connection. If there is significant airframe disruption, the ELT to hull antenna connection is usually severed and without an antenna the ELT transmission is unlikely to reach the satellites or be heard on VHF guard frequency. Also even if the airframe is intact, it being inverted and the ELT antenna under the wreckage usually precludes proper transmission from the site.

Other distress beacon types (some PLBs for example) have internal automatically deploying antennas and do not rely on external atenna facilities to transmit effectively.

However, the design philosophy issue is carried over to other distress beacons in that for example there are maritime accidents where supposedly automatically releasing EPIRB buoys have failed when a vessel has capsized so fast that the EPIRB rack has gone under water at such an angle the buoy has failed to release and gone down with the ship instead. Those are also rarely survivable accidents for the ships crew.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:18
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Yes, absolutely, especially now that digital memory is so cheap. A Tb hard drive could record the entire life of an aircarft CVR?
Yeah, but you'd need to replace it every two years or so. Flash memory 'wears out' with use, and mechanical HDs even more. An hour of qualified service personnel costs lots more than an SSD. Then add to the bill the cost of updating maintenance procedures, testing, certification...

Usually, you cannot have five-nines reliability with cutting-edge technology. You have to choose.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:18
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Climb to 45,000 ft

Why bother trying to climb to FL450 with all the risks of coffin corner?
If they wanted to incapacitate everyone, why not depressurize at FL350 and let the pax O2 just run out.

Doesnt make sense
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:23
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CASARA S&R Navigator / Spotter here:

Well, I took a look at those images and have to say that, to my eyes at least, they look more like wave-action. It would be nice to have zoomed-in and consecutive images to see if they changed at all with time.

Tomnod has coverage of the new areas, so if people do have any spare time, PLEASE log-on and give it a shot.

Just a personal observation - it seems incredible that MAS still has the relatives at KL. The 'expect the worst' message went out days ago and any possible wreckage only confirms a catastrophic crash. Surely the best thing is to get everyone home to calmly wait for the eventual facts to emerge, not this ongoing media circus(?)
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:23
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Debating fact.

Please we do not have any substantial evidence of MH370 climbing to FL450
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:26
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I can't see the last-but-one page, so it may have been posted already, but here's an interesting new WSJ article for those who thought Inmarsat took a long time to process and release the satellite data:
I suspect that the Inmarsat 'ping' data was a victim of the backlash against the flood of unreliable information coming from the Malaysian authorities. At the time it was first offered, the authorities were under considerable criticism for releasing information one day then retracting it the next. So the first information of any significance was treated with kid gloves.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:30
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Although confirmed by several 772 Drivers that a fully loaded and fueled 772 would NOT be capable of reaching FL450. Even FL 400 would be challenging at that stage of the flight??
They don't know that. One, the aircraft in question wasn't fully loaded. Two, no 777 pilot has tried to climb to 45000. Their FMS tells them they can't reach it safely, but that doesn't mean it couldn't have achieved that height if only for a few minutes.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:44
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@PPMAGETO

I wonder, why your pic did not get any attention. First time i see the possible position arcs from the former sat-pings too.
What is the origin of this graph, I read BBC based on NTSB?

And big question: why is there no arc for the time 3:11? Aircraft unpowered or position arc identical with the 2:11 or 4:11 arc?

http://www.pprune.org/8390293-post6648.html
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:45
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captains_log said

Do we have any actual proof of this so far? We have some pings and a last known point no actual proven flight path has been published?
we have

- a few released/leaked hits

- Thailand saying it never left their radar (meaning for long, at least) and never crossed into their territory (which means WP start North of border over sea, go south a fair distance and skirt this non-linear border, WP end North of border over sea)

- No other radar hits anywhere anytime after the above series of hits to cross the Peninsula
(...well released hits, at least. There is the possibility some of the more "secrete" locations might have pinged it and they just don't want to publicly let people know said secrete locations are there. Little/No reason not to release hits from known radar locations though, and if one was deliberately trying to avoid radar, the known locations would be the only ones whoever was piloting would know to avoid)

- Governments involved (who have more data than us) saying they interpret everything as deliberate

... if not deliberate, it will probably be unbelievably difficult to come up with a series of events to produce what happened in reality. Would maybe be possible, but that's a possible well down the scale and rather on the verge of impossible

Last edited by D.S.; 20th Mar 2014 at 17:15.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:50
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I don't see how it could have been flying HDG. The last 2 pings were at 7:11 and 8:11 on the same 40 degree arc. That implies to me that it flew to a waypoint before 7:11 and went into a holding pattern at it.

Are there any waypoints in the search area that would meet the criteria?
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:52
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I took a break from following the frenzy of posts some 40 pages ago. Some amazing intelligence on satellites and RF. Very impressive. But I am also amazed by the number of posts from seemingly intelligent and informed people who are STILL advancing theories on decompression, fire or other mechanical failure. At least one major news outlet has been parroting the same unfounded and emotionally driven theories having read them on this site!
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:52
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US satellite the unspoken source that sparked search

This may inform the debate.
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Old 20th Mar 2014, 16:55
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Magnus

I just read that before I came on here. Confirms what John Young didn't say in the PC.

Interesting thing that was said was the re tasking of two satellites to produce high res images
of the area so it will be interesting what they show.
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