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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:26   #5781 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Pontius Navigator View Post
I may misunderstand this but if there was constant spacing (between rings?) then it would indicate flight along a radial from the nadir.

Any other angle would eventually result in flight on the tangent or for a short time effectively along the ring.

have to be on the radial to get the maximum space between rings, any other angle will reduce the ring spacing. after ring 2 look at the distance to ring two, if less than that for a radial note how much less.

npw treat ring 2 as your start again you know the max to ring three on a radial, if at ring 3 ping that distance is less than the radial spacing distance, note the difference.

compare the two noted differences if they are the same the plane is on a constant heading, that si the only info I could get from the previous ping rings.

Now I don't believe the 60, 55, 50 45 etc rings are the only fixed points he could come up at 38, 33 etc
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:28   #5782 (permalink)
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Accuracy of data on sites like flightradar24, planefinder, ...

FR24 : if you look at a "rewind" of what was ("legally" I suppose...) in the sky near between Kabul and Mazari Sharif (Aghanistan) on the 3/08 at 00:00 UTC (that is 8am Malaysian Time, 11 minutes before "last ping" of MH370), you find 4 a/c (direct link below in the post):
- THA960 (TG960 / THA960), B777 (HS-TKQ)
- KLM872 (KL872 / KLM872), A330 (PH-AKD)
- BAW142 (BA142 / BAW142), B747 (G-CIVC)
- TSO9184 (UN9184 / TSO9184), B767 (EI-DBG)
On planefinder.net, the three first are found with routes consistent with where they show on FR24 (on the right day):
THA960 : BKK to ARN
KL872 : DEL to AMS,
BAW142 : DEL to LHR
But for the TSO9184, planefinder doesn't find it on a search by UN9184 nor TSO9184, but finds it by EI-DBG and tells it was (on 2014-03-07) on the route CUN to DME as flight UN9184 (so the one near Mazari Sharif on the same day). And tells also it is a B763 (vs B767 on FR24). It is also found by direct typing of the searched address (see below).

On FR24, the flihgt TSO9184 disappears at 00:12 or 00:13
Flight disappearing for some minutes on FR24 is not uncommon, and KL872 disappears also at the same time and at 00:19 just the BA142 is remaining, and after 00:28 nothing in the sky near Mazari Sharif ! Probable problems with air data.
But what about the same a/c (EI-DBG) flying NE in Afghanistan and between Cancun and Moscow the same day? Some mispelling anywhere?

"Replay" from 03-08 00:01 between Kabul and Mazari Sharif : Flightradar24.com - Live flight tracker!
UN9184 flight info - Plane Finder

Is it "business as usual"? And so, not very more useful than newspapers?

Sorry if all this is some more trash
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:30   #5783 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by EPPO
Right... Maldives fall roughly at the 75º circle from the sat footprint. Definitely, the plane [reportedly] seen there is not the same as the one that was pinged within the 40º arch a couple of hours later.
Roger that....and how would they have escaped the Diego Garcia sphere of surveillance?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:35   #5784 (permalink)
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Ref the Maldives sighting;a `Mega Maldives 767 `landed about 0600-30, lots of other local traffic,also upper transit stuff.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:38   #5785 (permalink)
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Likely what is being reported as the cargo is based on the manifest. Inasmuch as airplane cargo is crated no one really would have noticed whether or not what was going into the cargo hold was what the manifest claimed it to be.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:42   #5786 (permalink)
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Sat Pings

For the Sat pings (besides the one at 8:11), was any information on the satellite distance arcs provided?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:44   #5787 (permalink)
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Turnback and radar

Originally Posted by YouNeverStopLearning
Turn back is is understandable, but they didn't quite make it round to anywhere near to 180 degrees...
Malaysia-today postulates that "The Malaysia military took full delivery of one of the advanced Thales Raytheon Systems early last year with an integrated Sentry command and control system and the Ground Master 400 3D radar.

According to Thales, the MADGE system operates in real-time and features multi-radar tracking and a flexible human-machine interface.

The GM 400 radar also provides long-range surveillance capabilities for the Royal Malaysian Air Force.

Its reach is up to 400 km and it is more than sufficient to detect the MH370." Further " It is now clear that the four-man crew in the three air defence stations, who were supposed to be watching the radar screens, either did not notice or failed to report to their superiors that an unidentified plane was flying across the country."

So a high tech radar system was unmonitored and then when the lights came on, formed the basis of the turnback.

Possible scenarios along corridor routes then.

Last edited by brika; 18th Mar 2014 at 21:46. Reason: quote lapse correction
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:46   #5788 (permalink)
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If the aircraft was shot down soon after it turned back where did the pings over the next several hours come from? These were detected independent of Malayasia.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:48   #5789 (permalink)
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Must have missed it somewhere in the preceding 250 odd pages, but where did the info that the aircraft climbed to 450 come from? Secondary turned off so no mode C, so where was it from and what was the timescale ie just after turn back or when?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:54   #5790 (permalink)
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should there not be a tape of all comms from ATC to the aircraft
See Listen to Live ATC (Air Traffic Control) Communications | LiveATC.net

Listen to the archives from WMKK for 16:30 UTC 7 March onwards. Takeoff was at 16:41 UTC
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:54   #5791 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by Ornis
If the aircraft was shot down soon after it turned back
Now where did you get the idea and evidence that the a/c was shot down soon after turnback?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:55   #5792 (permalink)
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If the FO was in the flight deck and made the last radio transmission but then didn't re-establish comms with the next ATC, and with systems shutting down 2 minutes after that, I'm thinking it is highly likely he was in the flight deck. It seems unusual to decide to go for a bathroom break or similar at that short time between the radio calls.
Also, if there's any night you don't want the Captain paying too close attention, that was a good night. We know he had a long, stressful day(s) and no doubt had the day's events heavily on his mind. I wouldn't be surprised if the Captain was already resting in the cabin when things started to go wrong.

I'd like to know more about the FO...did he have any associates / friends onboard? Were they in the flight deck with him? Maybe he even had a simulator at home too. Lots of focus seems to be on the Captain but something isn't adding up with the FO either.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 21:56   #5793 (permalink)
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Why so? You can construct a GC between any two points on the globe, including any pair of points on that arc.

We only know that the aircraft was equidistant from the satellite at two specific points in time.
The reply was to a comment that the aircraft could be flying rather than stopped, and still remain equidistant from the satellite (if it ever was) - but that only works if it flies so that it's on the red arc at two points an hour apart. The red arc is not great circle. The coincidence for it to fly for an hour on a route that links two points on an arc equidistant from the satellite seems unlikely.

Without having information about the other satellite details though, it remains an enigma, and the only thing that's available is the red arc from Inmarsat.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 22:00   #5794 (permalink)
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The first officer made a laid back radio response after the problems started. This is the whole mystery of the scenario.

That is, of course, unless the first officer was unaware at the time that major systems had been put out of action prior to him giving the RT response.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 22:00   #5795 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
The circles (assuming that more than one could be plotted, which now seems in doubt) would be 60 minutes apart, because that's how often the satellite pings the aircraft.

The only deduction that could reasonably be made would be if the spacing between two successive rings turned to be equal to the maximum distance that the aircraft could fly in an hour. Then it would follow (as previously suggested) that the track must be along the radius of the rings, but of course that doesn't identify which radial.

If two hourly rings are spaced closer together, then it's hard to see how anything can be deduced in respect of track or groundspeed.

But as it seems that only one ring is known, it's all a bit academic.

But if 3rd hourly ping is at the same reduced spacing to the 2nd one , as the 2nd one is to the 1st one that constant spacing tells you it is on a constant heading/trk but nothing about that heading or track.. Do you agree that?

Now you may think that is unimportant or of no use others will disagree a) it is an extra known and B) in IMHO it indicates a flight south, constant track north is eventually going to be spotted by the ground or another aircraft visually.

There was also another post by someone on rhumb lines and loxodromes and he reckons with the other ping arcs you could calculate track and heading do a search on the thread. Way over me.

Last edited by oldoberon; 18th Mar 2014 at 22:06. Reason: add rhumb lines
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 22:02   #5796 (permalink)
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Be careful with interpreting the "40 degrees" of the red arc.

The angle from the satellite to the opposite limbs of the Earth is only about 19 degrees, since it's very high.

The 40 degrees is the elevation angle of the satellite from the aircraft. [Thanks Sensor Validation]

Last edited by awblain; 18th Mar 2014 at 22:38. Reason: Angle wrong
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 22:05   #5797 (permalink)
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?Silent Flying MH370

Originally Posted by skyman01
A Startlingly Simple Theory About the Missing Malaysia Airlines Jet | Autopia | Wired.com

No sensationalism, just common sense and a practical explanation that fits all the events.
Just try to fit that with 3 radar centers equipped with high tech equip. albeit asleep, but recording + normally fairly heavy air-routes crossing that area.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 22:06   #5798 (permalink)
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But if it was shot down near Malaysia, even at 5000 feet, someone would have found wreckage at sea or on the ground.

Then the "red arcs" would have to be nonsense; why would Inmarsat damage its reputation by publicizing nonsense?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 22:06   #5799 (permalink)
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Skyman01, thanks for posting the link. A sensible theory until we know what happened.

Some of the conjecture is so outlandish it's scary and the worst is maligning reputations of the pilots without proof.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 22:08   #5800 (permalink)
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Just another wild speculation...

Prompted by this remark a few pages back:
The captain immediately did exactly what he had been trained to do: turn the plane toward the closest airport so he could land.
From the point of last contact, RMAF Air base Kuantan would have been on the reciprocal track back towards KL.
Langkawai would have been at least three times the distance and around 60-70 degrees of the reciprocal track to Kuantan.

A "land as soon as possible - nearest divert" wouldn't equate to Langkawi or Penang airfield for that matter (...)
The original assumption was that a possible scenario was smoke in the cockpit, which caused the pilots to "aviate, navigate, communicate" and start by turning off stuff to try and stop what might have been a fire or an electrical fault generating smoke. Let's assume for a moment that it was the communications equipment that had a failure; that's not unheard of as far as I understand. Let us also assume that the pilots may not have been at the top of their performance, given the time of day and an uneventful flight. Does it sound preposterous to you experts to propose it might have happened like this:
- Comms equipment develops electrical problem, fails shortly after A/C leaves Malaysian airspace
- Pilots start trying to identify the source of the problem, and in doing so also switch off the radar transponder and eventually unselect ACARS
- At the same time, being trained pilots, they divert, but fail to recognize Kuantan as their best option and instead head towards Langkawi or Penang (for whatever reason - stress, familiarity, you name it)
- Things continue to go pear shaped and the pilots' actions start to become erratic, leading eventually to the plane steering a course over the open ocean which otherwise doesn't make sense.

I would be first to accept that the scenario is weak and can't explain why the aircraft would follow the arc that it seems to have done, but at least there is no Blofeld-style supervillain needed here. What do you think?
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