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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 18th Mar 2014, 14:40
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Originally Posted by GlueBall
Obidiah post #5709 ...can be associated with practical logic, because normal, average reasonable people can one day be overcome with life's challenges, snap, and come off the rails. ...
If we suppose Capt. Zaharie Ahmad Shah intelligently masterminded the disappearance of his own aircraft in connection with his political views, then we must consider him sufficiently intelligent to keep the world entertained during his trial. A suicide scenario, involving the murdering of 238 innocent people, is far less of an effective end game than a high profile criminal trial.

Secondly, the steps taken to disappear appear to have been premeditated so it is less convincing to believe it was commissioned by an "average reasonable person coming off the rails."
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 14:41
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guys
WHO, WHY, WHERE, HOW.

The only thing that is relevant right now is WHERE, the rest can wait
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 14:44
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G-ARVH We are talking about a deflated tyre that caught fire on take-off. It’s slow burning and smouldering, this has happened elsewhere in the world before in Nigeria I think leading to the loss of the aircraft. However by the top of the climb everything appears normal with the wheel in its well until they get a EIDAS warning.
How long was it from take off to hull loss?
What altitude?


How did a smouldering fire outside the pressure hull keep burning with enough intensity to burn through the pressure hull as the aircraft cruised at altitude?

Where is the wreck?

How did it keep pining for 6 hours?

Do yourself a favour and pop this in the bobbins file.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 14:46
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Wild Goose

I realise that the Malaysians are never going to say, but I'm thinking recent talk of very low altitude/terrain mapping may be them trying to explain discrepancies in their primary radar data. Like - why they picked up an unidentified aircraft at some points but not others (land over Malay Peninsula).

There is a video of a 777 re-enacted flight in the New Straits Tines where there was no secret that the Malaysians were toying with terrain mapping to "recreate primary radar and satellite data". Reading between the lines it's obvious the aircraft got through their defences that night.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 14:50
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Maldives

Possible sighting in Maldives

Malaysian Airlines MH370: live - Telegraph
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 14:52
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Murder/Suicide generally has no political motivation. This could be such a case. Instead of the lone nutter in the mall with an assault rifle, take your life along with 240 new friends in a jet.

Its happened before.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 14:54
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http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...let-fires.html

Now theirs a thought
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 14:58
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Just culture in action...
Capn Bloggs,

True, but in this case, Western culture.

overthewing and harryw,

I take your points, but going up the chain of command would have been the first thing to do and if that didn't work, a more discreet public announcement would have been less career-limiting.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:00
  #5669 (permalink)  
 
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The aircraft flew into the Southern section of the Indian Ocean until it ran out of motion lotion, that much seems to be the most likely scenario at this point - until further fact-backed info comes to hand.
Why else are there 5 Orions and a Poseidon searching that area as from tomorrow, local time? It's because nearly everything points to that spot.

Thus we can believe with a reasonable degree of certainty, that the aircraft was still fully flyable until the end. That puts a fire right out of the ball park.
Whether the aircraft flew on AP until it dropped out of the sky as part of a plan - or whether it did a Helios, we will only know when the wreckage is found.
I'm not normally a betting man, but I'll wager there's a very good chance some wreckage will be found in the next week or two.
One thing in favour of a recovery from the Indian Ocean is the area is deep enough for subs to operate, unlike the Gulf of Thailand.

As regards the military interception capabilities - you can spend $100B on the finest military equipment the U.S. or Russia or China can provide - but it's only as good as the abilities and motivation of the guys driving it.
In the case of numerous SE Asian countries, those abilities and motivation are currently lacking - and the reason being, there's no real elevated tensions or major military threats in the region.
A few riots and demonstrations in Thailand are just part of the run-of-the-mill life for these people.
Crony capitalism and nepotism rules, pay the bribes, get on with life. No-one's currently looking to invade anyone elses country.
A little skirmish or two over the Spratleys is no reason for Thailand, Malaysia or even Vietnam to be on full invasion alert.

As far as the Captain and FO go, I'll also lay some money we'll end up finding out these guys were heroes, not baddies.

Last edited by onetrack; 18th Mar 2014 at 15:16.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:01
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Pings?

Do we actually know that information is available from pings prior to the published 'last ping' at 08.11?

Somewhere earlier in this thread, a poster who seemed familiar with Inmarsat protocols suggested that the log of SATCOM responses is overwritten with each new response which means that only the final ping data exists. As earlier, hourly pings will only reveal a series of concentric arcs that show no more than that the aircraft was 'in the area', there seems no reason to withhold them.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:02
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Red face This could be credible

The news item is very intriguing. The only issue I have
Is why did it take so long for this purported sighting in the
Maldives To hit the media ? Puzzling....

Last edited by averow; 18th Mar 2014 at 15:03. Reason: Spelling
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:03
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Hogger60.

When you switch on the TCAS & Transponder you DO NOT then get a primary return. You get a sqawk & a height readout (Modes A & C) from the transponder (unless Mode c is switched off - & if it is, you won't get TCAS advisory).
A Primary return is a blip of reflected electro magnetic energy, which contains NO coded information &, therefore, NO a/c identifying info. It is therefore, useless for TCAS purposes.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:06
  #5673 (permalink)  
 
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The most likely scenario seems to be the suggestion made of a technical problem, whoever was flying turned sharp left, possibly to get back to nearest runway, then without further input aircraft continued until fuel used.

The spanner in the works is the last verbal transmission attributed to the second officer - a seemingly 'normal' response after what seems to have been a traumatic event.

How 'normal' an R/T response this would be from a professional pilot I would question. It would surely be relevant to hear his level of R/T on his other flights, much this was in or out of character could say a lot.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:10
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@mrbigbird
@dicks-airbus

How do you account for the possibility of being stationary for 2 hours 59 mins....and it being possibly landed for this period?

The investigators monitoring the 'pings' - by time- or attenuation-shift, or whichever way they have managed to do it - have confirmed a strong probability of the last two 'pings' indicating transmission from the same location. Obviously they would have seen shift between the 2nd-from-last 'ping' and the penultimate, indicating the a/c was still moving at least up to the penultimate 'ping'. Minimum one hour in the same place, maximum ??? (once the 'pings' stopped).

Ditch into ocean, empty tanks, no major hull breach....one hour of buoyancy?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:15
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D.S. - Put yourself in the Malaysians position. This is their 9/11. They have never had to deal with anything like this before.
MAS has an excellent safety record, they're not African cowboys, despite the occasional laxity in procedures.
They're obliged to hand out some info, they're no doubt working with conflicting basic data that has to be analysed and re-analysed to ensure erroneous information is discarded.
Perhaps MAS is doing all it can, but an article in Malaysia Today suggests that the plane could have (and should have) been intercepted by Malaysian Air Force jets, had they not been asleep at the wheel.

Air Force caught napping. MH370 could have been saved | Malaysia Today
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:16
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I don't think the following is very likely - but then, we ran out of likely scenarios a week ago.

Someone suggested the possibility of the crew/passengers being exposed to toxic fumes. At some point we were told that a large shipment of mangosteens was on board. Is it possible that the fruit was over ripe/rotting and fermented? Could fumes from fermenting fruit have gotten into the cabin air supply and slowly intoxicated the crew, causing stranger and stranger actions?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:28
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Originally Posted by wild goose
Persistent reports in the media as well as posters here refer to a descent to 5000' to "avoid radar".
1) at 5000 ft you are still very visible to radar.
Only on a flat earth within 88 miles of the radar head.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:30
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Ground Master 400 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Ground Master GM 400 403 406 Thales Raytheon 3D air defense radar technical data sheet pictures - Army Recognition - Army Recognition

Sadly no mention of height finder accuracy, which might have separated wheat from chaff in the various 'pronouncements' from KUL.
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:31
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Now this is getting interesting:

Thailand’s military said on Tuesday that its radar detected a plane that may have been Malaysia Airlines Flight 370
Mr. Montol said that at 1-28 a.m., Thai military radar “was able to detect a signal, which was not a normal signal, of a plane flying in the direction opposite from the MH370 plane,” back toward Kuala Lumpur. The plane later turned right, toward Butterworth, a Malaysian city along the Strait of Malacca. The radar signal was infrequent and did not include any data such as the flight number.
They released this info after 10 days..

When asked why it took so long to release the information, Mr. Montol said, “Because we did not pay any attention to it. The Royal Thai Air Force only looks after any threats against our country, so anything that did not look like a threat to us, we simply look at it without taking actions.”
Does it change existing assumptios?
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Old 18th Mar 2014, 15:40
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The release of the Thai radar observation after 10 days is jaw dropping. Surely this was discussed with the Malaysians/US etc and has been discounted days ago and has been misleadingly entitled "just released"? ?
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