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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

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Malaysian Airlines MH370 contact lost

Old 16th Mar 2014, 10:55
  #4461 (permalink)  
 
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Just a thought.
I spent several years building my own aircraft, and although I am pretty competent with electronics, I am by no means an expert.
However I bought an off the shelf mode S transponder, set the hex code myself, installed it then test flew the aircraft. All done with no airframe or avionics experience, as is the case with a lot of home builders out there.
If you were able to smuggle a mode S transponder aboard that T7 I suspect it would be relatively easy for an electronically savvy guy to hook it up and set what ever hex code he desired thereby cloning another aircraft.
I am sure a licensed avionics engineer will shoot me down if I am way off the mark here.
But it may just explain why this guy appears to have been able to fly his aircraft wherever he wanted.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 10:56
  #4462 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CodyBlade
SBut if you trying to catch a car thief you won't broadcast to world you know where they are and coming for them..
Even though its 8 days down the track, the priority has to be finding the aircraft and the PAX. If the perpetrators get away, that's a secondary issue, and they will have identified themselves by their absence.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 10:58
  #4463 (permalink)  
 
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The Malaysian PM is quoted as saying
"have determined the plane's last communication with a satellite was in one of two possible corridors":

a northern corridor stretching from the border of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through to northern Thailand
a southern corridor stretching from Indonesia to the southern Indian Ocean
I understand that these references to corridors is based on a (presumably geo-stationary) satellite above the Indian ocean detecting signals from the a/c.

But if that's the case why refer to a 'corridor' implying a long, but limited width area?

If the satellite can't detect position/bearing or distance, which presumably it can't (otherwise there'd be no need to mention N/S corridors), then presumably the search area would be anywhere in the line of sight, limited only by the range of the a/c.

Or am I missing something?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 10:59
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@aerobat77

Is that scenario not contradicted by ACARS having been disabled prior to the last words spoken to ATC?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:00
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Aerobat77. Sensible words.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:04
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Thumbs down Political convictions

The Malaysian govt, knowing that the plane had turned west and crossed over to the Strait of Malacca, still let at least 4 countries waste valuable resources searching for an airliner they would never find.
Then, upon detecting said airliner on radar, instead of following it or asking for help right then, did nothing and now ask the whole world to help them find an airplane in an area that is basically a rectangle between Beijing, Teheran, Tananarive and Perth!
I know nothing about that country but if the Captain has proved to be an opponent of such state of affairs, that only speaks well of his character.

Btw, does anyone have software or knows his spherical geometry enough to calculate what percentage of the planet surface that area represents?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:05
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richardgb,

go to the graphic in this NY Times article,

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/wo...ht-370.html?hp

the width at any point in the corridor arc is pretty wide.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:06
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Originally Posted by richardgb
If the satellite can't detect position/bearing or distance, which presumably it can't (otherwise there'd be no need to mention N/S corridors), then presumably the search area would be anywhere in the line of sight, limited only by the range of the a/c.

Or am I missing something?
Relative signal strength (or possibly even something like latency) to multiple satellites.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:10
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Richardgb

We can work out distance from the satellite using the ping. Gives us a circle.

There are some other satellites around ruling out sections of the circle. Thus we end up with two arcs.

See

MH370
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:11
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Inmarsat downlink and uplink is probably the most surveiled band of every spy agency and .gov satelite operator in the world. Hard to believe that they can not determine if the last ping came from the northern or southern range of the 40 degrees arc. Somehow it looks as there is a vested interest from some parties that the plane is not found quick.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:11
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Doppler from multiple geostationary sats would give you derived heading, speed and possibly location. It's how the Americans tracked Sputnik.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:13
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Waypoints

By following waypoints it could make it look like a valid commercial flight, but with a failed transponder, so minimising chances of a hostile interception???

OK, I know I don't know what I am talking about.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:14
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Why follow waypoints if your only gonna spear it in

We seem to have two possible scenarios.
1. Go South - and presumably crash into deep south Indian Ocean where it may never be found.
2. Go North. Could crash, but more lily to be found. Could possibly also land plane for a future purpose, but only if there was a skilled pilot involved.

If it was the Captain, you would have to figure he realised he would be tracked. Perhaps not in real time in the middle of the night. But it would become clear over subsequent days.

So if the plan was to land (i.e. north), why go to the trouble to make clear that he was likely flying? Why specifically draw increased attention to the possibility the plane may have landed, and that getting the plane was the purpose? If the ultimate plan was to get the plane (or the passengers), why deliberately tip off the authorities that this was a possibility? Whoever ultimately wanted the plane would presumably prefer to draw attention away from the landing scenario.

Going South makes more sense to me. If you wanted to strike a blow against your country, having an internal person responsible is probably more devastating than being the innocent victim of terrorists who may come from elsewhere. How do MAS respond to this? If a senior trusted Captain did this, that is a major problem for them. I was talking to a friend in KL tonight. MAS bookings are down and people are cancelling flights.

I feel the plan was to go south. It is a huge ocean down there. It is very deep in parts. Rough seas and remoteness from land will make search very difficult. If you really wanted to hide the plane, that is as good a place as any.

Make it unlikely the plane will be found - not quickly anyway. At the same time, make people feel it was most likely an internal job. This leaves lots of deeply disturbing and unanswered questions. No assurances this couldn't happen again - how do you protect against this?

I believe that would be the most psychologically devastating option. And that is why I believe this is what has happened.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:16
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The Chinese have the best hackers, the Americans have the best weapons and the Russians have the best spies. Still the aircraft cannot be located??
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:16
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Originally Posted by SaturnV
go to the graphic in this NY Times article,
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/16/wo...ht-370.html?hp
and 6 additional hours of straight line flight (after the last radar contact 1.5 hours in) puts them right at the end of the red line (either north or south)
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:18
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To clarify reports of possible wreckage (passenger luggage) found by greek ship Elka Athina:

The ship was notified by Indonesian coast guard of possible debris in the Straits of Malacca about 4 hours ahead of its current position (probably observed from aircraft), and was asked to investigate. No sighting of anything as of yet. Given current understanding of last known position, probably another red herring.

Source: Real.gr - ?????? - ???????? ????? ????? ???? ??? ?? Boeing
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:20
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"That's how the Americans tracked Sputnik". Do you see the flaw with your statement?
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:21
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Richardgb,

Yes, whilst direction is unknown, it is suggested that the data does have a time stamp allowing the distance to be calculated from emission to reception. The arcs probably designate quite narrow corridors. Logically, arcs can be drawn for all the pings. A calculation of the probable maximum distance that the plane could have flown from the last point recorded should intersect the arc. Likewise, similar plots for the other pings should indicate if the plane was indeed fling approximately straight. This should be more obvious for the southern arcs but should also be possible for the northen.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:22
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If you were a Government (or for that matter any NGO) negotiating for the lives of 200+ people I don't think you would be broadcasting the fact. I cannot recall any hostage situation where the public have been provided with a running commentary of the negotiations.
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Old 16th Mar 2014, 11:23
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@aerobat77

Is that scenario not contradicted by ACARS having been disabled prior to the last words spoken to ATC?
not really. acars system failure alone is not an emergency so they sounded normal without reporting it to ATC - they might wanted to first sort out why that happend , in the next minute things became catastrophic and not time to report ynything more.

@mods : am i blind or was my post with a non james bond explanation deleted ?
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