Ash clouds threaten air traffic
EI Premier, the dispersion model used by the London VAAC has the information (what there is) provided by the Icelandic Met Office as its starting point. From there, NWP models forecast the movement of the cloud.
But, it's a FORECAST using the best model available. Unfortunately, meteorological time machines do not yet exist for someone to pop over to tomorrow or the next day to see where the ash is; nor do governments, airlines, nor the taxpayer want to shell out more money to make the model and observational data better than currently available.
Yet again, the Met Office/VAAC merely fulfil the brief given them by ICAO to FORECAST the movement of ash. It's up the Aviation Authorities to judge wether airspace should be shut.
As pointed out earlier, FAAM will be sending up a research flight later to find out how much (if any) ash is up there. Until then, there's no point getting one's knickers in a twist.
Perhaps, instead of asking so many questions, you could suggest some possible solutions?
But, it's a FORECAST using the best model available. Unfortunately, meteorological time machines do not yet exist for someone to pop over to tomorrow or the next day to see where the ash is; nor do governments, airlines, nor the taxpayer want to shell out more money to make the model and observational data better than currently available.
Yet again, the Met Office/VAAC merely fulfil the brief given them by ICAO to FORECAST the movement of ash. It's up the Aviation Authorities to judge wether airspace should be shut.
As pointed out earlier, FAAM will be sending up a research flight later to find out how much (if any) ash is up there. Until then, there's no point getting one's knickers in a twist.
Perhaps, instead of asking so many questions, you could suggest some possible solutions?
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CO have now also cancelled both of their EWR-EDI as well as their EWR-GLA flights on 4 May. Assume they think its possible that these airports may also be affected.
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Something happening right now ....
This is an image from the monitors in the area right now - and the cam is looking very odd at the moment too ....
Earthquakes - Iceland
Earthquakes - Iceland
EI Premier:
Yes it is extremely annoying. What do you propose? Writing to the volcano?
You can't possibly be serious about requiring an airline to risk its investment in engines and aircraft just to deliver one planeload of passengers? Do you expect the insurers to accept an unknown risk? Are you going to sue if an aircraft goes down with one of your family on board thanks to a dicky Ash forecast?
To put it another way, if it isn't safe for a whole year then you won't be flying for a whole year, period. The precautionary principle has to apply.
And I have a Son who is going to be trying to get to Antigua from Britain on business next week, so don't think I'm not concerned.
This whole situation is getting extremely annoying now.
I was stranded two weeks ago on the continent and it took a lot of time, effort and cash to get back to Ireland.
Now there are a few points I wish to make. Firstly, how do the UK Met Office/London VAAC know of the concentration of the supposed ash plume that's approaching when they have not sent up any test flights etc and ash concentrations couldn't even be verified at the volcano site up to this morning? Only yesterday the London VAAC charts indicated the main risk area some 200 miles to the west of Ireland stretching down the Atlantic - now everything has been altered again.
What is the difference between a flight departing DUB tomorrow morning at 06.59 and 07.00? It's complete rubbish. The ash cloud is not going to suddenly envelope the skies above the airfield within the period of one minute or anything like that. Let's say two aircraft depart at the same time and fly northwards from RWY 34 - the fallacy of the principle of a blanket closure at 07.00 is already evident.
The truth is that the IAA/London VAAC do NOT know the concentration of the ash with accuracy and therefore this is all again precautionary. I'm all for safety by every means and fully respect the need to maintain passenger/crew safety above all else, however this whole situation is going to have to be organised quite a lot better.
If this should continue even on this scale, continuous economic damage will be done. If there is the eventual much spoken of eruption of Katla anytime within the next 18 months - it will drive the at least the European economy into a major recession, much worse than recent times because inflation in relation to land transportation will soar upwards.
The entire situation is also getting extremely concerning right now, not just for those who are directly impacted by the airspace restrictions.
I was stranded two weeks ago on the continent and it took a lot of time, effort and cash to get back to Ireland.
Now there are a few points I wish to make. Firstly, how do the UK Met Office/London VAAC know of the concentration of the supposed ash plume that's approaching when they have not sent up any test flights etc and ash concentrations couldn't even be verified at the volcano site up to this morning? Only yesterday the London VAAC charts indicated the main risk area some 200 miles to the west of Ireland stretching down the Atlantic - now everything has been altered again.
What is the difference between a flight departing DUB tomorrow morning at 06.59 and 07.00? It's complete rubbish. The ash cloud is not going to suddenly envelope the skies above the airfield within the period of one minute or anything like that. Let's say two aircraft depart at the same time and fly northwards from RWY 34 - the fallacy of the principle of a blanket closure at 07.00 is already evident.
The truth is that the IAA/London VAAC do NOT know the concentration of the ash with accuracy and therefore this is all again precautionary. I'm all for safety by every means and fully respect the need to maintain passenger/crew safety above all else, however this whole situation is going to have to be organised quite a lot better.
If this should continue even on this scale, continuous economic damage will be done. If there is the eventual much spoken of eruption of Katla anytime within the next 18 months - it will drive the at least the European economy into a major recession, much worse than recent times because inflation in relation to land transportation will soar upwards.
The entire situation is also getting extremely concerning right now, not just for those who are directly impacted by the airspace restrictions.
You can't possibly be serious about requiring an airline to risk its investment in engines and aircraft just to deliver one planeload of passengers? Do you expect the insurers to accept an unknown risk? Are you going to sue if an aircraft goes down with one of your family on board thanks to a dicky Ash forecast?
To put it another way, if it isn't safe for a whole year then you won't be flying for a whole year, period. The precautionary principle has to apply.
And I have a Son who is going to be trying to get to Antigua from Britain on business next week, so don't think I'm not concerned.
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I Need Clarification (TO FLY OR NOT TO FLY)
Airspace Restrictions over Ireland
I just can't figure out this industry. Not going into the initial release of volcanic ash and resulting airspaces clousures, but as a result of that, we now introduced a "NO FLY ZONE" so as to minimise airspace closures. What really annoys me now is that the IAA and also reports in the press seem to indicate that airports will reopen this afternoon on the 4th May. Click the below link, charts issued by VAAC this morning, can anyone tell me how the HELL they came to this decision:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1272949726.png
Parts of Ireland and the irish sea (SFC to FL200) are still within this NO FLY ZONE. What am I missing here? If this is the IAA giving into commercial pressures or maybe just not taking this seriously enough, I am out of this industry
Your Comments Please
HighLow
I just can't figure out this industry. Not going into the initial release of volcanic ash and resulting airspaces clousures, but as a result of that, we now introduced a "NO FLY ZONE" so as to minimise airspace closures. What really annoys me now is that the IAA and also reports in the press seem to indicate that airports will reopen this afternoon on the 4th May. Click the below link, charts issued by VAAC this morning, can anyone tell me how the HELL they came to this decision:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1272949726.png
Parts of Ireland and the irish sea (SFC to FL200) are still within this NO FLY ZONE. What am I missing here? If this is the IAA giving into commercial pressures or maybe just not taking this seriously enough, I am out of this industry
Your Comments Please
HighLow
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Yes it is extremely annoying. What do you propose? Writing to the volcano?
You can't possibly be serious about requiring an airline to risk its investment in engines and aircraft just to deliver one planeload of passengers? Do you expect the insurers to accept an unknown risk? Are you going to sue if an aircraft goes down with one of your family on board thanks to a dicky Ash forecast?
To put it another way, if it isn't safe for a whole year then you won't be flying for a whole year, period. The precautionary principle has to apply.
And I have a Son who is going to be trying to get to Antigua from Britain on business next week, so don't think I'm not concerned.
You can't possibly be serious about requiring an airline to risk its investment in engines and aircraft just to deliver one planeload of passengers? Do you expect the insurers to accept an unknown risk? Are you going to sue if an aircraft goes down with one of your family on board thanks to a dicky Ash forecast?
To put it another way, if it isn't safe for a whole year then you won't be flying for a whole year, period. The precautionary principle has to apply.
And I have a Son who is going to be trying to get to Antigua from Britain on business next week, so don't think I'm not concerned.
I FULLY agree with everyone's points on safety and wholly respect the need for caution. I'm a frequent flyer myself and would not want any aircraft to enter into a situation in where it was in risk just for the sake of getting pax somewhere.
However, my point about the difference between 06.57 for example or 06.59 and 07.00 still stands. Now apply that principle to what we have seen today:
Even though Ireland is STILL within the red boundary zone on the UK Met Office/London VAAC charts, airspace is re-opening from 01.00PM today.. Yet at 01.00PM DUB for example will still firmly be in the restricted zone.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1272949726.png
Even on the ash concentration charts, airports like ORK and DUB are not in the zone in which concentrations are expected to exceed the agreed limits - even at 06.00 Hours this morning.
There is no consistent approach from the IAA on this and in their media briefings they seem to have very little knowledge of what they are even talking about.. Comments like: 'A plume of ash extending from Donegal to Port Laoise' - I mean really, they can tell its periphery lies exactly over Port Laoise at the time of the broadcast?
If the European governments thought that bank-bailouts were expensive, the purse-strings are going to have to loosen quite an amount again in the next while in my opinion, as this will cause severe hardship for airlines and many businesses alike.
EI Premier
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Hi Premier, as so kindly pointed out to me recently, refer to Fleecy's link.
The Ryanair chart (issued by the VAAC) doesn't paint exactly what is going on here. It is the BLACK areas indicated on the chart that represent areas of ash density that exceed recommendations from engine manufacturers.
HighLow
The Ryanair chart (issued by the VAAC) doesn't paint exactly what is going on here. It is the BLACK areas indicated on the chart that represent areas of ash density that exceed recommendations from engine manufacturers.
HighLow
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Hi Premier, as so kindly pointed out to me recently, refer to Fleecy's link.
The Ryanair chart (issued by the VAAC) doesn't paint exactly what is going on here. It is the BLACK areas indicated on the chart that represent areas of ash density that exceed recommendations from engine manufacturers.
HighLow
The Ryanair chart (issued by the VAAC) doesn't paint exactly what is going on here. It is the BLACK areas indicated on the chart that represent areas of ash density that exceed recommendations from engine manufacturers.
HighLow
Many thanks for that and to Fleecy for posting the link. My main point also is that even in relation to this series of charts, you can see that neither ORK or DUB are within the black areas even at 06.00 Hours this morning..
Hopefully everything will get back to normal this afternoon, but I would say the risk of another closure into Wednesday is very high.
Regards,
EI Premier
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this is a good (and freely available) introduction to the type of procedure employed at the various VAACs
However, the presentation includes:
The use of last generation models would improve notably the
confidence of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) forecasts
confidence of the Volcanic Ash Advisory Center (VAAC) forecasts
Either way, it still seems that there is no remote sensing technology that gives dependable information about average particle SIZE and DENSITY of ash per cubic metre of air over a large geographic area (eg. UK and Ireland).
Sorry to keep mentioning this..... but it's up to the operators to collect and pool data post-flight about ash encounters, so that there is at least a backstop for imprecise modelling, if not a method to calibrate the model in near real-time.
Given the wind forecast for the rest of this week, it looks like the industry is going to get ANOTHER wake-up call (as if it should need one!!!). Now it all depends on the volcano.
Pity CAA / EASA / ??? have not seen fit to issue any directive including data collection and sharing.
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Can I ask the guys flying commercially; has there been any guidance from your company with regard to flying within the BUFFER ZONE. It just seems non-intuitive to me, a BUFFER is something you keep between two objects. Can anyone tell me the chart below, is this red area a BUFFER Zone or something else. The chart pointed out by Fleecy gives much more detail. With regard to the chart below, what are we looking at here exactly?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1272949726.png
Thanks
HighLow
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/aviation...1272949726.png
Thanks
HighLow
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EI-Premier, Eurocontrol/the CAA have stipulated a 60NM buffer zone around the greatest concentrations of ash (I dare say to cater for potential model inaccuracies).
As such, DUB and ORK are within this buffer, and are therefore subject to airspace closure.
As such, DUB and ORK are within this buffer, and are therefore subject to airspace closure.
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This is all very strange. The data available from Eurocontrol show the ash cloud is over Ireland and moving towards North Western UK. If the data was enough to close the airspace this morning; nothing has changed.
Has this been an over reaction on the part of the IAA causing a knock-on effect with the UK CAA regarding Northern Ireland?
Have the airlines put pressure on the IAA/CAA ?
Who feels comfortable being the first to launch at 1300?
Next chart should be out in 10mins
Has this been an over reaction on the part of the IAA causing a knock-on effect with the UK CAA regarding Northern Ireland?
Have the airlines put pressure on the IAA/CAA ?
Who feels comfortable being the first to launch at 1300?
Next chart should be out in 10mins
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IAA Message
The IAA has cleared Irish Airports to open for full operations from 1300 hrs local time today Tuesday 4th May. Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Knock, Donegal, Waterford, Kerry, Galway and Sligo may resume normal operations.
Current Information from the VAAC confirms this information. We expect operations to be normal at all Irish Airports for the rest of today.
Ireland will not fall within the predicted area of ash concentrations that exceed acceptable engine manufacturer tolerance levels.
Our decision to close earlier today was based solely on the safety risks to crews and passengers as a result of the drift south of the volcanic ash cloud caused by the north easterly winds.
The situation will be reviewed as the week goes on. Winds are forecast to continue coming from a Northerly direction for the next few days and this could lead to further problems.
There will be a further update on the IAA website at 20.00hrs tonight, Tuesday 4th May, 2010.
ENDS
Current Information from the VAAC confirms this information. We expect operations to be normal at all Irish Airports for the rest of today.
Ireland will not fall within the predicted area of ash concentrations that exceed acceptable engine manufacturer tolerance levels.
Our decision to close earlier today was based solely on the safety risks to crews and passengers as a result of the drift south of the volcanic ash cloud caused by the north easterly winds.
The situation will be reviewed as the week goes on. Winds are forecast to continue coming from a Northerly direction for the next few days and this could lead to further problems.
There will be a further update on the IAA website at 20.00hrs tonight, Tuesday 4th May, 2010.
ENDS