Ash clouds threaten air traffic
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Dublin airport is expected to resume operations at 4AM tomorrow morning...
Ash concentrations should have sufficiently diminished at that time with Northeasterly winds kicking in allow a gradual resumption of operations, spreading from airports in the East to the West in Ireland during the day.
Ash concentrations should have sufficiently diminished at that time with Northeasterly winds kicking in allow a gradual resumption of operations, spreading from airports in the East to the West in Ireland during the day.
A Runyonesque Character
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Just to clarify:
On the Met Office charts:
Red area= 2*10^2 mg/m^3 ash concentration
Black area= 2*10^3 mg/m^3 ash concentration. In other words, the concentration at the edges of the black contour is 10* that at the edges of the red area.
Around the black area is added a (non uniform) ~60nm buffer zone, to allow for shifts from one 'snapshot' to the next, six hours later. This is the 'no-fly' zone.
On the Met Office charts:
Red area= 2*10^2 mg/m^3 ash concentration
Black area= 2*10^3 mg/m^3 ash concentration. In other words, the concentration at the edges of the black contour is 10* that at the edges of the red area.
Around the black area is added a (non uniform) ~60nm buffer zone, to allow for shifts from one 'snapshot' to the next, six hours later. This is the 'no-fly' zone.
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Update on Eyjafjalljokull
Magma intrusion - 05 May 2010 13:40
Since Monday 3 May, increased earthquake activity beneath Eyjafjallajökull has been recorded. Precise locations of the earthquakes show that their source is at first very deep, at about 23 km depth, but then migrates upwards. This strongly indicates that “new” magma is intruding into the magma conduit and pushing on the over-lying magma, causing a difference in pressure at the surface. It is therefore anticipated that the eruption will continue at full force in the next days.
Significant changes in horizontal movement at GPS stations around Eyjafjallajökull have been observed in the last 48 hours. Renewed northward displacement is seen at stations BAS2 and STE2, located just north of the ice cap. To the south, westward movement is apparent at THEY (see figure below), while station FIM2 - located further east - shows eastward movement.
The distribution of earthquake activity in the magma conduit could also indicate the location of the magma chamber that has fuelled the eruption since 14 April. It is considered to be at a depth of approx. 3-5 kilometers, in an area where no earthquakes are detected.
The movement described in second paragraph does not bode well for this volcano (i.e. could signal another major eruption). Good news is that the same service reported (as of yesterday's report) that there are no geophysical changes within the Katla volcano. Let's hope for the best.
Lobo
Geologist at large
Since Monday 3 May, increased earthquake activity beneath Eyjafjallajökull has been recorded. Precise locations of the earthquakes show that their source is at first very deep, at about 23 km depth, but then migrates upwards. This strongly indicates that “new” magma is intruding into the magma conduit and pushing on the over-lying magma, causing a difference in pressure at the surface. It is therefore anticipated that the eruption will continue at full force in the next days.
Significant changes in horizontal movement at GPS stations around Eyjafjallajökull have been observed in the last 48 hours. Renewed northward displacement is seen at stations BAS2 and STE2, located just north of the ice cap. To the south, westward movement is apparent at THEY (see figure below), while station FIM2 - located further east - shows eastward movement.
The distribution of earthquake activity in the magma conduit could also indicate the location of the magma chamber that has fuelled the eruption since 14 April. It is considered to be at a depth of approx. 3-5 kilometers, in an area where no earthquakes are detected.
The movement described in second paragraph does not bode well for this volcano (i.e. could signal another major eruption). Good news is that the same service reported (as of yesterday's report) that there are no geophysical changes within the Katla volcano. Let's hope for the best.
Lobo
Geologist at large
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First signs of seismic activity on the "slopes" of Katla. Looks like it's little brother has awoken it's giant neighbour.
Earthquakes - Mýrdalsjökull
Katla is the larger mound in the Myrdalsjokull area
Earthquakes - Mýrdalsjökull
Katla is the larger mound in the Myrdalsjokull area
Last edited by alisoncc; 5th May 2010 at 20:47.
What ever so slightly worries me is the lack of awareness exhibited by line crew of the required enhanced procedures - whatever they may be for each individual type - or knowledge of the results of the risk assessment required by FODCOM 12/2010 (at least as concerns UK operators) or ability to interpret the (for want of a better description) "charts" and the implications of ops in the red zone ... you mean you've had no NOTAC, no policy document, no communication at all? Jeez. Good to see the safety culture is alive and well. 
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Been cloudy as hell around the volcano today. Very small "weather windows" when viewing the webcams, but when the cloud does clear briefly, it shows this HUGE plume. 
Eyjafjallajökull frá Hvolsvelli
Eyjafjallajökull frá Hvolsvelli
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Assessment - 05 May 2010 20:50
Increased seismicity suggests that new material is intruding from deep below Eyjafjallajökull and latest GPS-observations suggest inflation. So far, GPS-signals are not large.
Plume at 5.5-6.5 km height (a.s.l.) according to IMO's weather radar.
Due to mild weather and snowmelt, increase in discharge was noticed in Markarfljót peaking at midnight. Discharge from Gígjökull seems to be decreasing and oscillations in water temperature at the old Markarfljóts bridge relate to air temperature. Pulses of meltwater from Gígjökull are unnoticeable.
Lava flows to the north and spreads at 500 m a.s.l. The lava tongue is about 200 m wide and lava channels that join at the tongue are about 30-60 m wide. The lava channels gets wider every day.
There are no signs that the eruption is about to end.
Increased seismicity suggests that new material is intruding from deep below Eyjafjallajökull and latest GPS-observations suggest inflation. So far, GPS-signals are not large.
Plume at 5.5-6.5 km height (a.s.l.) according to IMO's weather radar.
Due to mild weather and snowmelt, increase in discharge was noticed in Markarfljót peaking at midnight. Discharge from Gígjökull seems to be decreasing and oscillations in water temperature at the old Markarfljóts bridge relate to air temperature. Pulses of meltwater from Gígjökull are unnoticeable.
Lava flows to the north and spreads at 500 m a.s.l. The lava tongue is about 200 m wide and lava channels that join at the tongue are about 30-60 m wide. The lava channels gets wider every day.
There are no signs that the eruption is about to end.
First signs of seismic activity on the "slopes" of Katla. Looks like it's little brother has awoken it's giant neighbour.
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WHBM
Let me give you some experiences from the time of Mount St Helens in the USA, from those who were right alongside, and in comparison to which this Iceland volcano is a mere pimple in comparison.
Roads downwind were so extensively covered that they had to get snowploughs out; quite some damage was done by trees being overwhelmed by the weight of ash deposited o them, and they fell over.
Yet damage to reciprocating engines of various types was really non-existent. Railway locomotives on lines downwind were fine and carried on, provided they changed the air flters every day, cars were similar. I don't recall any increase in mechanical problems after the ash, although there was a lot of cleaning. Don't know about GA in the area but certainly airline service in the downwind area was little affected. And this was ash you could see.
This may be so for land-based vehicles but as far as I know, an aircraft does not have a designated air filter similar to a land-based machine.
Mike
Let me give you some experiences from the time of Mount St Helens in the USA, from those who were right alongside, and in comparison to which this Iceland volcano is a mere pimple in comparison.
Roads downwind were so extensively covered that they had to get snowploughs out; quite some damage was done by trees being overwhelmed by the weight of ash deposited o them, and they fell over.
Yet damage to reciprocating engines of various types was really non-existent. Railway locomotives on lines downwind were fine and carried on, provided they changed the air flters every day, cars were similar. I don't recall any increase in mechanical problems after the ash, although there was a lot of cleaning. Don't know about GA in the area but certainly airline service in the downwind area was little affected. And this was ash you could see.
This may be so for land-based vehicles but as far as I know, an aircraft does not have a designated air filter similar to a land-based machine.
Mike
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With all the talk of man made global warming, the planned job creation and tax revenue from carbon taxes does anyone know how much these volcanos contribute to Global warming, how much carbon and pollutants they throw into the atmosphere compared to man made pollution?
It is strange how we name Volcanos and almost refer to them with affection and admiration but little seems to be discussed on their contribution to the warming up of the planet.
Does anyone have any figures or info?
Pace
It is strange how we name Volcanos and almost refer to them with affection and admiration but little seems to be discussed on their contribution to the warming up of the planet.
Does anyone have any figures or info?
Pace
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It seems absolutely extraordinary to me that 'the industry' (mainly the airlines themselves and aircraft leasing companies) seem to have tucked their heads back under their duvets and tried to carry on as usual despite now flying through at least SOME ash.
As Sunfish points out, the worst-case scenario is a catastrophic increase in engine maintenance, far beyond the capacity of engineering and parts-supply. Well before that point is reached, there are unpleasant operating cost implications for any operator covering routes anywhere in N Europe.
It would be nice to think that company managements are already fully-engaged with this and are collecting detailed data (from whatever sources) about what quantities of ash their aircraft are being exposed to, on individual flights and cumulatively. However, I've seen or heard nothing to suggest that much is being done.......
As Sunfish points out, the worst-case scenario is a catastrophic increase in engine maintenance, far beyond the capacity of engineering and parts-supply. Well before that point is reached, there are unpleasant operating cost implications for any operator covering routes anywhere in N Europe.
It would be nice to think that company managements are already fully-engaged with this and are collecting detailed data (from whatever sources) about what quantities of ash their aircraft are being exposed to, on individual flights and cumulatively. However, I've seen or heard nothing to suggest that much is being done.......
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mmciau
Quote: This may be so for land-based vehicles but as far as I know, an aircraft does not have a designated air filter similar to a land-based machine
Most light aircraft air fliters are of "auotmotive" type, the after market Challenger fliters are automotive filters made by the well known K & N company. Challenger just got the STC to fit them to aircraft.
Most light aircraft air fliters are of "auotmotive" type, the after market Challenger fliters are automotive filters made by the well known K & N company. Challenger just got the STC to fit them to aircraft.
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brooks
It would be nice to think that company managements are already fully-engaged
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Has anyone seen the risk assessment process that the european agencies used to ascertain whether it was safe to fly or not?
Indeed was there/is there a safety management system in place that covers aviation threats from natural disasters? What process was undertaken before the unilateral decision was made to close airspace entirely rather than re route around designated portions of airspace?
It would seem that rather than an ordered, clinical process being followed a lot of the reaction was a knee jerk and countries closed airspace on the basis of what someone else did. I know volcanic ash is dangerous, but SE Asia has many sputtering volcanoes that do not close entire tracts of airspace for days at a time.
Indeed was there/is there a safety management system in place that covers aviation threats from natural disasters? What process was undertaken before the unilateral decision was made to close airspace entirely rather than re route around designated portions of airspace?
It would seem that rather than an ordered, clinical process being followed a lot of the reaction was a knee jerk and countries closed airspace on the basis of what someone else did. I know volcanic ash is dangerous, but SE Asia has many sputtering volcanoes that do not close entire tracts of airspace for days at a time.
According to today's Scotsman, the muddle continues.
Anger over 'needless' grounding of flights - Scotsman.com
High time that heads rolled if this piece is to be believed.
Anger over 'needless' grounding of flights - Scotsman.com
High time that heads rolled if this piece is to be believed.
