Air France Safety report

[John Farley]

Capot

Safety is an absolute, not a matter for graduated risk-taking using "judgement".

I think I know what you are getting at but I don't think your words quite hack it. Sadly safety is NOT an absolute (since that means we must not fly) and the devil IS in the graduated risk taking which has to be done before and during every flight.

What I think you mean is that crew's (and those that support them) should always take the safer option when faced with a decision. That is certainly what I see as the crux of your point and that is something that I feel would have avoided a lot of past accidents.

I am sure I would be badly affected if I had been faced with the situation mentioned in your words following this quote. That alone means you will get no incoming from me.

JF

[Final 3 Greens]

Cessna Puppy

Hofstede’s Power distance Index' Geert Hofstede Cultural Dimensions LOL Hogwash, psychobable, old (and young) wives tales, a bit of truthful observations, and poppycock.

I am not a great fan of this research, however the one thing that one cannot fault Hofstede for was the rigour of his research and the subsequent quantitative analysis.

To describe it in the way that you do suggests to me that you don't know much about it.

[Ancient Observer]

Cultural research and impact on Safety

Cultural research and impact on Safety

I'm afraid that anyone who dismisses research in to cultures, and its impact on safety probably should not be allowed to fly outside their own little culture.
Hofstede's research is the best we've got. Whilst Trompenaars has also made a contribution, and his practical "games" and tests are more fun than Hofstede, as a thinking framework Hofstede's stuff works. I commend it to you. Open your eyes and read it with an open mind.
PDI, for instance, is an issue in Eastern countries (yup, Korea included) and in Mediterranean countries, or those with that background in the ruling elite. (Much of South America).
I won't bore you with why I believe this, but it has worked for me in 20 years international experience.

[Leodis737]

.... and the one in LHR is very much RR related too.

Too?

RR & EASA are doing the right thing - fuel oil heat exchanger has been redesigned and EASA has mandated replacement (AD2009-0142 13 July 2009).

I concurr that between AF and other european carriers there is a gap and that within AF the incident rate between Airbus and the 777 (now talking only fbw aircraft) is quite apparent ....

Would be interested if you know of any evidence on the Airbus vs 777 incident rate within AF.

[captplaystation]

Suffice to say it is years since I have heard the "Atlantic Barons" flying into Hounslow West complaining about speed control / headings / holding.
Many times in the last few years in CDG I have felt obliged to interject in my semi-usable French to ask Commandant Dieu in the AF if he wouldn't mind just adjusting his knob & letting the rest of us get a word in edgeways on the frequency.
Authority (supposed or real ) is more of an issue in France than in some other
European countries . . . . . fact.

[vovachan]

>>Aeroflot is harder work, but it looks like 2 + 1 (the 1 being the Aeroflot Nord 737 at Perm, Aeroflot-Nord being majority owned by Aeroflot but having a separate IATA code)

I am aware of the Perm crash, I am not aware of the other 2. Please enlighten what are those

[Leodis737]

I am aware of the Perm crash, I am not aware of the other 2. Please enlighten what are those

2001 Il-86 Gear-up landing accident at Dubai, with 322 on board, no fatalities

2008 Tu-154 Uncontained engine failure on takeoff at St Petersburg, no fatalities (apparently has never flown again, and is classed by Aviation Safety Network as a hull loss)

[robertbartsch]

TopBunk:
Why do you beleive the French may not report their findings on AF447 accurately?

Is this based, in part, on the findings of the '88 Paris Air Show crash where the court found that someone tampered with the BBs?

[Locked door]

Or the complete coverup of the true causes of the Concorde crash?

[Will Fraser]

My memory recalls a makeshift LG repair piece of Titanium fod on a preceding Continental DC-10 TO was the direct cause of Concorde's last flight, and all I have heard of '88 Paris was a rumour that the boxes were not tampered with, they were actually replaced with different recorders with faux 'traces'. What is it ?

[robertbartsch]

I thought the South Korean culture in the 80s-90s was studied within the context of their loss record during that time period and that subsequent changes in that culture have resulted in a much better safety record.

Can anyone shead some light on the public's view of safety; specifically, do people avoid carriers with poor safety records? Hopefully, market forces do provide economic incentives to improve performance.

[cessnapuppy]

But straight cover-up in such 'sunshine' as would surround this and other reports which conspiracy theorists bandy about the same notion, is extremely difficult if only in getting everyone onside and making sure they all keep quiet.

This is just not true. A conspiratorial 'cover up' is not some huge organized and rehearsed event like Synchronized Swimming in the olympics Rather, it most often is a conspiracy of like mindedness and a precognition of what the outcome is supposed to be or supposed to NOT be It takes a very firmly rooted organizational culture and an independently mandated investigative body like the NTSB for example, to properly execute a proper unbiased fact-finding investigation. Other organizations are not as fortunate nor apolitical and easily find some other cause of an accident that fits their cultural leanings and predispositions. Even a 'science' as accepted as finger print matching , 80% of 'experts' were able to make a positive id on fingerprint samples with a crime scene (when told beforehand that the prints came from a suspect already in custody) YET CAME WITH AN OPPOSITE VERDICT WHEN TOLD THE SAMPLE CAME FROM AN INNOCENT CONTROL SET OF PRINTS.

Look too, at how the Egyptians investigated the air crash where the their pilot crashed the plane EgyptAir Flight 990 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I put it to you that the Egyptian 'investigation' was as much a conspiracy as any you'll find! - Did they specifically start out to deceive or defraud? perhaps not, but they already started with the worst component in an investigation. A specific vested interest in the outcome and perhaps a predetermined belief as to what happened. I can tell you sir, that I see 'cover ups' DAILY (oft times its the same one from yesterday, but you get my drift ) In all cases there is the driving force of the investigation, sometimes a 'driving individual' i.e. Like a Dick Cheney who led his intimidating presence around the CIA until they 'found the Slam Dunk' to justify the war, or more commonly, a 'cloud', a pervasive 'if you know whats good for you, you dont look there - or say that- or use THAT word'.. color it, say 'possibly' instead of 'probably'. You can see even in the preliminary AF447 report, a shading of the 'coin toss' if you will...'The plane DID NOT break up in the air!' (not even a little bit? the skeptics ask) and so it goes

Conspiracies are not the sudden deluge, the rug lifted, and a dozen civil servants with brooms at the ready. Its more often paths NOT taken, people NOT interviewed, 'chains of custody NOT maintained' so that in the end, only ONE outcome is forthcoming.

p.s. not saying that a conspiracy exists, (in this case) just saying that just because you dont smell peanuts doesnt mean there is an elephant..somewhere....

[Will Fraser]

In a culture that wants to be fooled, it is not difficult to do so. The people seldom have the discernment to know the difference between a sceptical investigation, and a 'conspiracy theory'. Blend in a predispositon for less than critical thought and the deed is done. I have seen the police and District attorneys withold evidence, for no other reason than to protect a friends blunder in scene analysis, and the defendant was facing manslaughter. Beware the buddy system, it is an all too common expression of foreordained conclusions. Be sceptical of the 'recipe' verdict, the too simple explanation, and any monetary link twixt Joe and Jack or Jackie.

This AF 'report', hmmm. with so few mishaps to point to, isn't it a stretch to cast an airline in shadow given the millions of cycles the Industry has accomplished as a whole? People also like a quick and easy solution; this sets the stage for those with a microphone or camera to start laying the foundation for an outcome they would wish. I like the cold case, the more certain the conclusion the more it begs the watchful eye.

[robertbartsch]

Cessnapuppy said, in part:
You can see even in the preliminary AF447 report, a shading of the 'coin toss' if you will...'The plane DID NOT break up in the air!' (not even a little bit? the skeptics ask) and so it goes

*****
I honestly believe the French are doing their best to find the truth. That said, I did find the timing of the preliminary report unusual in that it was issued shortly after press reports about the autopsies were hitting the airwaves and, apparently, some have suggested that they did not fully consider that evidence.

[411A]

AF Concorde, ex-CDG.
Look for the Flight Engineer, without specific direction, fire-handled an operating engine.
Bad decision.

All the rest is history.

[captplaystation]

Dodgy re-installation of gear bogey, overweight (due tailwind ) take off, evidence from a "pompier" (fireman) that he saw sparks /smoke long before the motor went bang ignored, (edited to say, if I remember correctly skid marks on runway to support this and the fact that the aircraft went off centre more than could have been expected in the case of an engine failure) incorrect rotation at below minimum flying speed, premeditated /uncoordinated shutdown of an engine possibly still producing (much needed ) thrust pretty much during rotation . . . . .

cover up well, you decide.
Over emphasis on some casual aspects of why this all happened, whilst conveniently ignoring some politically/nationalistically hot potatoes ? well of course ! what deeed you expect you stoopeed fooel, we ave some pride left in zees cuntry you know. Sacre blue, zees eedeeots waant zee troof ? ? ! !

Phfaw ?

[lomapaseo]

It's hard to dispute a coverup when there are no facts to dispute, just what-if opinions.

On the other hand the investigative teams are like research teams. The members are not of all one mind. They compete to be heard. If you think that they can be silenced or kept away from data you are kidding yourself.

Even within tight organizations leaks will eventually occur if there is anything to be leaked. In the types of accident investigations being discussed here, there are just too many eyes and experts (including internet boards) to hide anything from.

In some of the examples discussed above I hear the same old claims which have been long ago discarded by the experts. So all that is new in this thread is the latest AF accident and patience should reveal something before calling it a coverup.

[admiral ackbar]

I agree that the investigative teams do a great job in often difficult circumstances.

However, after living in France for 7 years, I do agree to a certain extent about french society being very rigid and codified in ways that are hard for people that have not lived there to understand.

One needs to only look at the "Grande Ecoles" system which churns out the mandarins of France's government. There is a certain respect/fear/apathy that the 'rulers' rule and the people listen. I can certainly see it transferring to a Captain/FO situation, especially in a corporation that is still very much in the French government sphere of influence. Throw in accidents that involve Airbus and you add more people that went to school together to make decisions. I am not accusing the French authorities of anything, but in these circumstances if there is any western nation in which this could happen, France would be at the top of my list.

On the other hand, I am a fan of the airline and the country(well the in the air part at least, CDG ground ops are amongst the worst in the world...). Flew on them once a week, always had great service and it seems like a professionally run, world class airline. Had a good quality of life while I lived over there and we all know their TGV system and health care (examples amongst many) are world class, trying not to come off as an Air France basher.

All societies have their characteristics and quirks that give them strengths and weaknesses.

Any lessons learnt from audits like this are invaluable for everyone involved in the industry so I welcome them.

My (SLF) CAN$0.02

[cessnapuppy]

411A+

Even within tight organizations leaks will eventually occur if there is anything to be leaked. In the types of accident investigations being discussed here, there are just too many eyes and experts (including internet boards) to hide anything from.

All quite true, of course, but you are missing the point - the issue isnt a 'coercive conspiracy ala something from 'Stalinist Russia', but rather a more subtle self inclusive conspiracy, where its participants consciously and more often [b]Subconsciously[/b, rewire their mental pathways to conform Our job is to recognize our propensities and mitigate them. Example: The FAA and the NTSB. Both have overlapping parameters it would seem in regards to air travel, but in the case of a crash, the NTSB has sole jurisdiction. Why not a bigger role for the FAA? After all, they oversee those same airlines on a daily basis? We've already seen with Southwest et. al, that sometimes the overseer gets to 'chummy' with his charge- an FAA investigation of a crash could logically point to the FAA at being at fault, lax oversight etc. With many serious incidents being a fortuitously connected chain of 'Unfortunate Events', it's easy to point to one link of the chain as being THE link and THE cause - then ignore the rest. You can 'cover up' a murder by shining a flashlight on the murder weapon and not at the crime scene itself.

WIKI ENTRY on Concorde Crash..These investigators were frustrated by the lack of cooperation from French authorities, including an unwillingness to share data and the immediate resurfacing of the Concorde's takeoff runway after the crash. They alleged that the BEA was determined to place the sole blame of the accident on the titanium strip to show that the Concorde itself was not at fault. The piece of metal from the DC-10 was found 7 meters forward, and 37 meters to the right of where the Concorde's tyre blew.*

*Interestingly, that indicates to me that the tire DID hit the titanium strip, as its new position seems very consistent with being struck by a moving object. The other issues remain however. As 411A pointed out: The flight engineers response and also the numerous safety violations that day: Incomplete wheel structure maintenance, near runway incursion with De Gaul's flight, Plane OVERWEIGHT for conditions. Far from being an unpredictable 'act of God', the accident can be shown to be a highly predictable failure of MAN - numerous tire incidents, numerous resulting fuel tank penetrations - uneventful does not mean safe, and the numbers eventually run out. That even now, France is going forward with criminal prosecutions is another travesty. Mock all as you will, the bizarre machinations of third world and Arab/Muslim legal process and priorities, you will find that the same lovable quirks exist in our own world, albeit with a 'superior' accent!

[wiggy]

admiral ackbar

"....... French society being very rigid and codified in ways that are hard for people that have not lived there to understand.

.......... There is a certain respect/fear/apathy that the 'rulers' rule and the people listen".



I held off this thread for a while, having lived in France for a few years now and am mindful of the sensitivities involved, but here goes.

The French education system loves certificates and medals. From the DIY store to the local prefecture and beyond you are dealing with folks who have a formal paper qualification in their line of work and have come to expect their opinion to be paramount. The result is in many, even very minor transactions, you are dealing with a formalised authority gradient......or as the admiral put it, it's "ruler/people".

France is a fantastic country 99% of the time, but often there is resentment of correction, criticism or contradiction, no matter how well intentioned and how diplomatically phrased. I rather hope that side of the national character is absent from the flight deck.