An Assessment Of The Current Crisis
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Flypuppy such bright eyed and bushytailed optimism is great to see in the present environment - I only hope you're right!
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it.
Two weeks after the attacks on the US, the scorecard for British pilot losses looks like this:
BA 380
Virgin 230
Gill 92
Many more are expected from BA, and bmi British Midland together with the charter operators haven't announced their losses yet. Expect the total to be around 1,000 by the end of this month.
Remember I said property prices would be likely to collapse? Confirmation here from today's Telegraph:
Unfortunately, it doesn't look like it.
Two weeks after the attacks on the US, the scorecard for British pilot losses looks like this:
BA 380
Virgin 230
Gill 92
Many more are expected from BA, and bmi British Midland together with the charter operators haven't announced their losses yet. Expect the total to be around 1,000 by the end of this month.
Remember I said property prices would be likely to collapse? Confirmation here from today's Telegraph:
Attack 'will hit the housing market'
(Filed: 25/09/2001)
THE terrorist attacks in the US will "undoubtedly" affect Britain's robust housing market, according to a new survey.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says that although this month's quarter-point cut in interest rates will help support the market, the international situation will not help house prices. RICS national housing spokesman Ian Perry said: "The attack on the US and the subsequent international uncertainty will undoubtedly have an effect
on the UK economy, and with it the housing market."
He added: "The stabilisation of the market in the summer and the forecast slowdown are a welcome pause after the rapid rises in the first half of the year. The cut in interest
rates will help support the market, but the international situation will not help, particularly given the signs of a slowing economy."
RICS survey of house prices for the three months to August showed the market remained strong - the number of completed sales reached its second highest level since 1993, rising 7% over the last three months. Demand for property was still ahead of supply, RICS said.
Its survey showed prices rose fastest in East Anglia, followed by the North West and the North, while the pace of rises in London moderated slightly. The Halifax warned earlier this month that the housing market is set to slow down as recession in the manufacturing sector hits consumer confidence.
(Filed: 25/09/2001)
THE terrorist attacks in the US will "undoubtedly" affect Britain's robust housing market, according to a new survey.
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors says that although this month's quarter-point cut in interest rates will help support the market, the international situation will not help house prices. RICS national housing spokesman Ian Perry said: "The attack on the US and the subsequent international uncertainty will undoubtedly have an effect
on the UK economy, and with it the housing market."
He added: "The stabilisation of the market in the summer and the forecast slowdown are a welcome pause after the rapid rises in the first half of the year. The cut in interest
rates will help support the market, but the international situation will not help, particularly given the signs of a slowing economy."
RICS survey of house prices for the three months to August showed the market remained strong - the number of completed sales reached its second highest level since 1993, rising 7% over the last three months. Demand for property was still ahead of supply, RICS said.
Its survey showed prices rose fastest in East Anglia, followed by the North West and the North, while the pace of rises in London moderated slightly. The Halifax warned earlier this month that the housing market is set to slow down as recession in the manufacturing sector hits consumer confidence.
Joined: Mar 1999
Posts: 991
Likes: 128
From: big green wheely bin
Gov, the last down turn was part of the normal economic cycle, exasperated by the UK being thrown out of the ERM losing £10 billion in the prosess. The boom of the late 80s could not be sustained and with interest rates at 15% and 3 million unemployed it was only a matter of time. the Gulf war was an unfortunate side show that just prolonged the agony not caused it.
The current situation is VERY differant, interest rates at 4%, 0.5 million unemployed. The underlying economy is strong. Nothing fundermentaly has changed since Sep 11.
The big problems at the moment as I see them are:
Insurance, sloved by the governments in the short term.
Oil prices, according to Ceefax $25 a barrell, about the same as before.
The Americans not flying, This is the big one, Europe has had terroism for 30 years or more, we are used to it. This is a shock to the Yanks and it will take time to recover, provided there are no more attacks.
The milatry action will prolong the agony as before, but we are talking months not years.
Any one exposed to the American market will be affected in the short term. It will not stop Joe Bloggs from having his week in Spain next summer.
The current situation is VERY differant, interest rates at 4%, 0.5 million unemployed. The underlying economy is strong. Nothing fundermentaly has changed since Sep 11.
The big problems at the moment as I see them are:
Insurance, sloved by the governments in the short term.
Oil prices, according to Ceefax $25 a barrell, about the same as before.
The Americans not flying, This is the big one, Europe has had terroism for 30 years or more, we are used to it. This is a shock to the Yanks and it will take time to recover, provided there are no more attacks.
The milatry action will prolong the agony as before, but we are talking months not years.
Any one exposed to the American market will be affected in the short term. It will not stop Joe Bloggs from having his week in Spain next summer.
Chieftan o'the Pudden Race
Joined: Nov 1997
Posts: 826
Likes: 0
From: Scotland usually, and often other parts of Europe
Guvnor,
I never said I was being optomistic, in fact ask the guys on my course who the Doom Meister is
From what I can gather a majority of the BA pilots were due to be retired this year anyway as was the phasing out of the 747 Classic fleets. Some of the Gill pilots have, as far as I am aware, not sat back and waited for a job to come looking for them and are looking at setting up their own air operation. There is more to the world than just trans Atlantic traffic. I have also heard that companies like DHL are seeing an increase in business. Frieght still has to be moved, businessmen still need to have face to face meetings, families still want to see each other. Until someone develops a teleporter,aviation will continue to be an important part of peoples lives.
The world is slightly different this time than in 1990/1 in so much as Europe is not so heavily linked to the US economy anymore, and that fact alone may just save a few companies. The price of oil has dropped, unemployment figures are not very high at the moment and interest rates are ridiculously low. I am not an economist but I dont think we are in for a monster recession. It may take time for the US to get over this tragedy but time heals all wounds, and then we will see how the land lies. Until then we should be pragmatic and stop all this doom mongering, get a life and take each day as it comes.
Chicken of despair? I am the bluebird of happiness....
I never said I was being optomistic, in fact ask the guys on my course who the Doom Meister is
From what I can gather a majority of the BA pilots were due to be retired this year anyway as was the phasing out of the 747 Classic fleets. Some of the Gill pilots have, as far as I am aware, not sat back and waited for a job to come looking for them and are looking at setting up their own air operation. There is more to the world than just trans Atlantic traffic. I have also heard that companies like DHL are seeing an increase in business. Frieght still has to be moved, businessmen still need to have face to face meetings, families still want to see each other. Until someone develops a teleporter,aviation will continue to be an important part of peoples lives.
The world is slightly different this time than in 1990/1 in so much as Europe is not so heavily linked to the US economy anymore, and that fact alone may just save a few companies. The price of oil has dropped, unemployment figures are not very high at the moment and interest rates are ridiculously low. I am not an economist but I dont think we are in for a monster recession. It may take time for the US to get over this tragedy but time heals all wounds, and then we will see how the land lies. Until then we should be pragmatic and stop all this doom mongering, get a life and take each day as it comes.
Chicken of despair? I am the bluebird of happiness....
Joined: Jun 2001
Posts: 8
Likes: 0
From: London
I've got to say I really feel for any guys out there who've recently finished (or are just about to) finish their ATPL courses.
How many wanabees have considered a career in the military? The nice uniform,high tech toys to play with, short haircut, strict disipline and the prospect of getting ******ed senseless in the showers are great character builders for a young lad... just look at me, my time in RAF never did me any harm (sits there twitching and dribbling)
Joking aside, there are some great careers in the services and although I can apprciate it is not easy to get in, it surely must be an option worth considering?
Good luck.
How many wanabees have considered a career in the military? The nice uniform,high tech toys to play with, short haircut, strict disipline and the prospect of getting ******ed senseless in the showers are great character builders for a young lad... just look at me, my time in RAF never did me any harm (sits there twitching and dribbling)
Joking aside, there are some great careers in the services and although I can apprciate it is not easy to get in, it surely must be an option worth considering?
Good luck.
Joined: Mar 2001
Posts: 381
Likes: 0
From: No longer on Pprune
I'd like to draw to this topics attention the following
http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi? ubb=get_topic&f=1&t=015796
Enjoy the read.
PS
[ 27 September 2001: Message edited by: Polar_stereographic ]
http://www.pprune.org/cgibin/ultimatebb.cgi? ubb=get_topic&f=1&t=015796
Enjoy the read.
PS
[ 27 September 2001: Message edited by: Polar_stereographic ]
Moderator
Joined: Dec 1997
Aviation Qualifications: ATPL
Posts: 4,929
Likes: 6
From: Suffolk UK
I've been absent for a week (last Virgin trip??), so I missed out on this thread so far. It's been an interesting half-hour's reading.
One aspect that is not immediately obvious when reading posts on a BB is the reliability of the information or the informant. Some here may not be very reliable, and should go back to R&N where they properly belong.
We have two who say they have run airlines through recessions and wars: IFR, who is accessible to you all, whose support for wannabes is legendary, whose success record is public knowledge, and whose integrity is unquestioned; and the Guvnor. I know whose advice I would trust, but it's up to you who you believe!
For those who would like an authoritative insight into airline economics, read Rigas Doganis' book The Airline Business in the 21st Century (ISBN 0-415-20883-1). There you will find a thorough analysis of the effects of the 87-94 economic slowdown (it wasn't a recession for much of the world) and the very temporary effect of the Gulf War, and an analysis of the underlying economics of the current airline business right up to just before the WTC.
I'm sure you've all read my advice to Wannabes in other threads and, for the moment, I stick by it. If you're contemplating an integrated course to start in the very near future, it's probably worth considering delaying. If you're due to start one in 6-9 months, watch the situation carefully and be prepared to change your plans. In either situation, you might consider taking the modular approach just so that you can tailor your graduation to the eventual upturn - which will come! Those of you currently on a modular course, start thinking about the timescale of the remainder of your training. If you're just about to graduate, I'm afraid that you're probably going to be into marking time until things start to improve. Of course, neither I nor anyone else here knows how long that will be, but it will happen. Just don't believe everything you read!
[ 28 September 2001: Message edited by: Scroggs ]
One aspect that is not immediately obvious when reading posts on a BB is the reliability of the information or the informant. Some here may not be very reliable, and should go back to R&N where they properly belong.
We have two who say they have run airlines through recessions and wars: IFR, who is accessible to you all, whose support for wannabes is legendary, whose success record is public knowledge, and whose integrity is unquestioned; and the Guvnor. I know whose advice I would trust, but it's up to you who you believe!
For those who would like an authoritative insight into airline economics, read Rigas Doganis' book The Airline Business in the 21st Century (ISBN 0-415-20883-1). There you will find a thorough analysis of the effects of the 87-94 economic slowdown (it wasn't a recession for much of the world) and the very temporary effect of the Gulf War, and an analysis of the underlying economics of the current airline business right up to just before the WTC.
I'm sure you've all read my advice to Wannabes in other threads and, for the moment, I stick by it. If you're contemplating an integrated course to start in the very near future, it's probably worth considering delaying. If you're due to start one in 6-9 months, watch the situation carefully and be prepared to change your plans. In either situation, you might consider taking the modular approach just so that you can tailor your graduation to the eventual upturn - which will come! Those of you currently on a modular course, start thinking about the timescale of the remainder of your training. If you're just about to graduate, I'm afraid that you're probably going to be into marking time until things start to improve. Of course, neither I nor anyone else here knows how long that will be, but it will happen. Just don't believe everything you read!
[ 28 September 2001: Message edited by: Scroggs ]
Joined: Apr 1998
Posts: 945
Likes: 0
From: 18m N of LGW
Tim, you know from my personal mails to you how much I wish that things turn out OK for you. I am equally sure that all the guys on Wannabes would also wish to join me in re-affirming those good wishes. You are too good to waste so you will come back, whatever it takes. Good luck.
I am going to repeat the last paragraph of Scroggs post above. Mainly, because he and I are in agreement with what the future holds for you and the industry.
No dogma! Just good old fashioned common sense.
Just do your own thing based upon your OWN decisions. I expect that further advice is probably uneccessary now, but you can e-mail any of us if you don't want to post.
Good luck to you also.
I am going to repeat the last paragraph of Scroggs post above. Mainly, because he and I are in agreement with what the future holds for you and the industry.
I'm sure you've all read my advice to Wannabes in other threads and, for the moment, I stick by it. If you're contemplating an integrated course to start in the very near future, it's probably worth considering delaying. If you're due to start one in 6-9 months, watch the situation carefully and be prepared to change your plans. In either situation, you might consider taking the modular approach just so that you can tailor your graduation to the eventual upturn - which will come! Those of you currently on a modular course, start thinking about the timescale of the remainder of your training. If you're just about to graduate, I'm afraid that you're probably going to be into marking time until things start to improve. Of course, neither I nor anyone else here knows how long that will be, but it will happen. Just don't believe everything you read!
Just do your own thing based upon your OWN decisions. I expect that further advice is probably uneccessary now, but you can e-mail any of us if you don't want to post.
Good luck to you also.
Joined: Apr 1999
Posts: 497
Likes: 0
From: Right Here.
Guys,
I just want to fly aeroplanes. Sure Im low houred, just been dropped on my proverbial and lost my dream job. But I'm prepared to sit this out and instruct, jump, etc.. As I think most recently qualified Wannabes will do. Airline jobs aren't the be all and end all.
MAX
I just want to fly aeroplanes. Sure Im low houred, just been dropped on my proverbial and lost my dream job. But I'm prepared to sit this out and instruct, jump, etc.. As I think most recently qualified Wannabes will do. Airline jobs aren't the be all and end all.
MAX
I say there boy
Joined: Mar 2000
Posts: 1,065
Likes: 0
From: Somewhere
It's also simple for me. Like Max I too just want to fly aeroplanes. I have made a clear decision to change career. I have gone into every stage of my training over the last two and a bit years with my eyes open, with an alternative plan in my back pocket and due consideration of the worst case scenario.
Now I have my licence but the airline industry is in a crisis of some proportions. That's not going to stop me, though, I'm going to do what it takes to get me to a level where airlines will be interested in me. Whether that's by waiting for things to pick up, building hours, building multi-hours or whatever. hey I might even consider a type rating as a last resort, but I'm not feeling that desperate or rich yet.
That means the most sensible route is going to be instructing (I'm a week into an instructors rating). If, as looks likely, opportunities here are more limited than before, well, I'll look at part-time instructing and a return to my old day job. Failing that I just return to my old job for a while and re-fill the bank account. Hell, with my old job it will be easier to keep that expensive multi-IR current.
Now I'm by no means the youngest wannabe on this board, but I'm also definitely not the oldest. Two and a half years ago I set myself a target of an airline job age 30. I'm 28.5 now, if I have to change that target who cares, I don't care what barriers I have to cross I will get there eventually because I have invested too much money, time, effort and emotional energy in my dreams to give up.
I hope that all wannabes make it to their dream, but, cyncially, the more that fall by the wayside, the less competition there is for me. Harsh, but realistic.
cheers!
Defiant foggy.
Now I have my licence but the airline industry is in a crisis of some proportions. That's not going to stop me, though, I'm going to do what it takes to get me to a level where airlines will be interested in me. Whether that's by waiting for things to pick up, building hours, building multi-hours or whatever. hey I might even consider a type rating as a last resort, but I'm not feeling that desperate or rich yet.
That means the most sensible route is going to be instructing (I'm a week into an instructors rating). If, as looks likely, opportunities here are more limited than before, well, I'll look at part-time instructing and a return to my old day job. Failing that I just return to my old job for a while and re-fill the bank account. Hell, with my old job it will be easier to keep that expensive multi-IR current.
Now I'm by no means the youngest wannabe on this board, but I'm also definitely not the oldest. Two and a half years ago I set myself a target of an airline job age 30. I'm 28.5 now, if I have to change that target who cares, I don't care what barriers I have to cross I will get there eventually because I have invested too much money, time, effort and emotional energy in my dreams to give up.
I hope that all wannabes make it to their dream, but, cyncially, the more that fall by the wayside, the less competition there is for me. Harsh, but realistic.
cheers!
Defiant foggy.
Joined: Mar 1999
Posts: 423
Likes: 0
From: NZ
Just back from a few days away- a few more thoughts.
Scroggs is right about the limited impact of the Gulf War, the REAL reasons for the airline woes at the time was in fact far more complex- although, as with this present crisis, airlines were quick to blame the war when their tottering operations crumbled. Then, as now, many made swingeing cuts in their operations in the hope of getting some compensation from the government, by blaming it all on the war.
I travelled internationally several times during that period, including to the Middle East, and the only airlines that seemed to be badly affected were US airlines.
Anyway, now, as then, certain worrying trends (for wannabes) will probably start to emerge:
- the selling of type ratings to gullible, and/or ruthless wannabes, in order to "be considered" for a job; the well-known BM modus operandi.
- the growth of a "second tier" of new recruits, on less favourable terms and conditions, and probably short-term contracts.
- the increase in the number of airlines looking to training organisations to provide a "one-shot" recruitment solution, and the subsequent ramping of charges by schools that are seen to be likely to provide a fast track to a job.
Unfortunately, the world has now changed, and we have to accept some new realities, unpalatable as they may be.
Very sad flying out of NCL this week, operating ex-Gill routes, and seeing all their aircraft parked up with snowplows parked in front of them. A reminder that most of our jobs hang by a not-too-strong thread.
Finally, the last time this happened, a large number of the recruits who got the first jobs when hiring started again, were in fact low-houred, newly-qualified guys. There are many reasons why that may be, but the point is that those who got qualified and were ready, got the jobs. Often it came down to who could get to a type-rating course the quickest... don't be fooled into believing that wannabes are automatically at the back of the queue, they aren't.
Scroggs is right about the limited impact of the Gulf War, the REAL reasons for the airline woes at the time was in fact far more complex- although, as with this present crisis, airlines were quick to blame the war when their tottering operations crumbled. Then, as now, many made swingeing cuts in their operations in the hope of getting some compensation from the government, by blaming it all on the war.
I travelled internationally several times during that period, including to the Middle East, and the only airlines that seemed to be badly affected were US airlines.
Anyway, now, as then, certain worrying trends (for wannabes) will probably start to emerge:
- the selling of type ratings to gullible, and/or ruthless wannabes, in order to "be considered" for a job; the well-known BM modus operandi.
- the growth of a "second tier" of new recruits, on less favourable terms and conditions, and probably short-term contracts.
- the increase in the number of airlines looking to training organisations to provide a "one-shot" recruitment solution, and the subsequent ramping of charges by schools that are seen to be likely to provide a fast track to a job.
Unfortunately, the world has now changed, and we have to accept some new realities, unpalatable as they may be.
Very sad flying out of NCL this week, operating ex-Gill routes, and seeing all their aircraft parked up with snowplows parked in front of them. A reminder that most of our jobs hang by a not-too-strong thread.
Finally, the last time this happened, a large number of the recruits who got the first jobs when hiring started again, were in fact low-houred, newly-qualified guys. There are many reasons why that may be, but the point is that those who got qualified and were ready, got the jobs. Often it came down to who could get to a type-rating course the quickest... don't be fooled into believing that wannabes are automatically at the back of the queue, they aren't.
