I've been absent for a week (last Virgin trip??), so I missed out on this thread so far. It's been an interesting half-hour's reading.
One aspect that is not immediately obvious when reading posts on a BB is the reliability of the information or the informant. Some here may not be very reliable, and should go back to R&N where they properly belong.
We have two who say they have run airlines through recessions and wars: IFR, who is accessible to you all, whose support for wannabes is legendary, whose success record is public knowledge, and whose integrity is unquestioned; and the Guvnor. I know whose advice I would trust, but it's up to you who you believe!
For those who would like an authoritative insight into airline economics, read Rigas Doganis' book The Airline Business in the 21st Century (ISBN 0-415-20883-1). There you will find a thorough analysis of the effects of the 87-94 economic slowdown (it wasn't a recession for much of the world) and the very temporary effect of the Gulf War, and an analysis of the underlying economics of the current airline business right up to just before the WTC.
I'm sure you've all read my advice to Wannabes in other threads and, for the moment, I stick by it. If you're contemplating an integrated course to start in the very near future, it's probably worth considering delaying. If you're due to start one in 6-9 months, watch the situation carefully and be prepared to change your plans. In either situation, you might consider taking the modular approach just so that you can tailor your graduation to the eventual upturn - which will come! Those of you currently on a modular course, start thinking about the timescale of the remainder of your training. If you're just about to graduate, I'm afraid that you're probably going to be into marking time until things start to improve. Of course, neither I nor anyone else here knows how long that will be, but it will happen. Just don't believe everything you read!
[ 28 September 2001: Message edited by: Scroggs ]