Gov, the last down turn was part of the normal economic cycle, exasperated by the UK being thrown out of the ERM losing £10 billion in the prosess. The boom of the late 80s could not be sustained and with interest rates at 15% and 3 million unemployed it was only a matter of time. the Gulf war was an unfortunate side show that just prolonged the agony not caused it.
The current situation is VERY differant, interest rates at 4%, 0.5 million unemployed. The underlying economy is strong. Nothing fundermentaly has changed since Sep 11.
The big problems at the moment as I see them are:
Insurance, sloved by the governments in the short term.
Oil prices, according to Ceefax $25 a barrell, about the same as before.
The Americans not flying, This is the big one, Europe has had terroism for 30 years or more, we are used to it. This is a shock to the Yanks and it will take time to recover, provided there are no more attacks.
The milatry action will prolong the agony as before, but we are talking months not years.
Any one exposed to the American market will be affected in the short term. It will not stop Joe Bloggs from having his week in Spain next summer.