An Assessment Of The Current Crisis
Thread Starter
An Assessment Of The Current Crisis
Righty oh. Firstly to all those calling me Nostradamus, Grim Reaper etc. and telling me to wind my neck in etc. etc. ALL I have advised here is that any Wannabe able to do so postpone for 3 - 6 months the expensive chunk of their training. Nothing else. So I think you are over-reacting to my postings. I stand by my advice.
Secondly, I have Wannabes best interests at heart and it dissapoints me that some people assert otherwise. I note with some incredulity and alarm that people such as Send Clowns who works for a majot Flying School is telling people:
"Max, don't be so daft. This is the time to start, as most reckon the job market to pick up in a few months, it takes more than a year to train, and there were previous forecasts of shortfalls. Since the schools are not putting enough students through this is still likely."
Yeah, my @rse.
Thirdly, everyone here has the right to their opinion including me. I am interested to hear yours but simply asserting the view that things will pick up without any kind of rationalisation to back that up is kinda pointless. I 'hope' it picks up to.
So lets summarise what we know:
a) Virgin to lay off 160 pilots
b) Gill to to lay off 60 pilots
c) BA have around 300 pilots with nothing to do and their status is unknown
d) BA have cancelled all recuitment and the guys on the TEP will not be offered jobs upon graduation
e) British Midland cadets will similarly not be offered jobs upon graduation
f) Britannia have cancelled all the people they have offered jobs to in the last approx 4 month, i.e. those that have not completed type training.
g) Airtours and Air2000 Autumn sponsorship is cancelled.
What I *hear* from my contacts and could well prove to be idle specualtion is:
i) A high quality Aer Lingus insider tells me they are expecting an announcement today for 1,800 redundancies and all 48 cadets currently under training will be cancelled.
ii) Scrubbed.
iii) JMC will cancel all people they have taken on but who have not completed type training.
iv) Recruitment to all the previous regionals (Brymon, Britsh Regional) now under the BACE umbrella is cancelled in the same manner as BA proper.
v) Aer Lingus will make 120 pilots off the bottom of the seniority list redundant in the next 2 months.
vi) All British European recruitment cancelled in the same manner as BA.
----------------------------
To my eyes that looks pretty much like the demand side is closed off. ANY jobs with airlines still recruiting which may include the low cost sector is going to be satisfied by guys leaving Virgin and Gill.
Casting an eye askance at the supply side we see approx figures of:
150 BA cadets
40 British Midland cadets
50 Aer Lingus cadets
26 Airtours cadets
---
266ish ex-sponsored cadets on the loose...
Plus of course approx 300 students currently on full time courses self sponsored.
So 266 + 300 = 566 Frzn ATPL graduates to hit the market in the next <12 months.
Not counting the guys training under the more drawn out modular route. (est. 200)
And not counting flying instructors and people already graduated looking for jobs. (est. 350)
Discounting completly people training in Member JAA states that have the right to work here (i.e. 14 countries) and hold a valid license (i.e. JAA just like you and I).
So one could argue we have 566 + 200 + 350 = 1,116ish people looking for jobs 12 months from now IF we accept the argument that any hiring over the next 12 months will be satisfied by the Virgin and Gill boys.
Now. Of that 1,116 people, lets say 116 are hopeless cases and no threat to your job prospects anyway.
Out of the 1,100 remaining at least 200 will not be able to keep their ratings alive for >12 months due to them being destitute they have to leave the market - leaving 900.
Out of the 900 remaining at least 200 will have well paid jobs they can go back to to wait for the upturn and keep their ratings and recency in good shape. They are temporarily out of the market.
Of the 700 remaining who can *just* about manage to keep their ratings current whilst stacking shelves perhaps 200 will find work as instructors or doing other aerial work for minimal money like parachute dropping.
Leaving 500 people chasing every one job that gets advertised in 12-24 months time.
Of those 500 at least 100 will be very wealthy and able to pay for type ratings.
*If* the jobs market returns to normal which means hiring about 200 low time pilots a year into any kind of job involving an aircraft heavier than 4 tonnes then those people training now, either starting or finishing, a one year course, have between two and half and three and a half years to wait post graduation for their first job.
There is of course a wide margin for improvement on those figures if this crisis eases rapidly. Equally there is a wide margin the other way.
Those are the numbers as I see them today. I - like you - cannot predict the coming war or peace nor the state of the world economy over the next 5 years. So lets stop trying - its pretty pointless and the threads get us nowhere.
Now I would like to step away from the mildly empirical and revert to the anecdotal. Indulge me or criticise me as you see fit:
In several threads I have drawn on my observations of a self sponsored course of students that went through BAE in Jerez last year that I had rather a lot to do with and now count, in some cases, as good friends. Of the stronger end of the course post-graduation one got BA mainline, one got Britannia and two got LoganAir. The BA and Britannia guys have both been told their services are no longer required, good luck with your future careers. The Loganair guys are OK.
Up until WTC I was bullish about Wannabe prospects citing the fact that self sponsored guys I knew were getting quality jobs within 2 months of graduating. Plus sponsorship was becoming easier as airlines struggled to attract as many high calibre applicants as they once did.
The fact that TODAY all the SPONSORED guys at Jerez *and* Oxford (BA, BMi, Aer Lingus and Airtours) face the very distinct possibility of 'no job' in addition to the possibly bleak immediate future of all self sponsored students meens I *have* to be very bearish about advising people to start training.
I wish it were otherwise.
There is an argument that has some relevance here and I heard it well expressed by Capt PPRuNe himself who started training in 1991 during the last crisis. It goes like this. You train when others don't and you therefore get a lot of attention from the school and the instructors as you are a very valued customer.
You graduate and its hard but if you can find any kind of work you will survive and be building hours. When the upturn starts you have the contacts to notice and you can get in on the ground floor. You will then get a 1st job which is not great but often provides great training for your later career. Typically a lot of hand flying raw data, taking **** and getting the job done (CRM). When things take off you are at the head of the queue and get the job you dreamed off. The Good Times roll and you do well rising rapidly through the seniority ranks as people get hired behind you. When the NEXT recession comes and pilots start being layed off *you* are relatively high up on the serniority list and thus reasonable safe from reducndancy. You survive and by the time the next slowdown arrives in another 10 years you are a veteran captain and more or less bulletproof unless your airline collapses.
In the long game then those that can could take advantage. I would have to say though that perhaps this thinking is best suited to a more mature person who has less personal debt to finance like perhaps the career changer rather than the younger Wannabe. But its a thought.
What I fear is "fighting the last war" syndrome on this forum. I mean NO disrespect to IFR and others whatsoever - indeed I thank them for their time and the value of their lifelong insight in bothering to make posts here - but I believe things are different today because the industry is so much bigger than it was even 10 years ago.
Basically in the early 90's there were 200 people at OATS 120 at BAE and CABAIR/SECOAT and 90 at what as to become SFT. You can double those figures today. You can also double the number of pilots who will be surplus to requirement becuase every airline there is is either twice the size they were in 1991, bust, or have been founded since the early 1990's (Airtours <biggest UK Charter airliner> Ryanair <biggest low cost airline - and worth MORE than BA today... easyJet, Go). So you will have twice the number of layoffs coupled with twice the number of students entering the market IF the conditions are no worse and no better than 1991.
In addition you have the totally Left Field introduction of JAA. This means of course that at the moment anyone holding a JAA licence AND coming from an EU state can apply for a UK airline job. THIS was NOT the case in the in early 90's or before. OF course *you* have the same rights, errr, you DO speak Dutch/German/Belgian.
Plus in the early 90's a lot of pilots escaped off to Asia which was still doing well and hiring. This time its Europe that is the best spot to be and that ain't looking too rosy as discussed.
So thats it. My thoughts as of today.
I would be delighted to read cogent arguments refuting my overall - lets face it - negative line.
Remember, part of my role here is to *stimulate* debate. However on this issue my own mind is pretty clear. Perhaps I am wrong, if so, please tell me.
Good luck to all you guys out there caught up in this, particularly Rob, John, Russell, Tony, Mike and Steve - hang in there,
Regards, the
Wee Weasley Welshman
ps In 5 years time all this will very probably be a bad memory.
[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]
Secondly, I have Wannabes best interests at heart and it dissapoints me that some people assert otherwise. I note with some incredulity and alarm that people such as Send Clowns who works for a majot Flying School is telling people:
"Max, don't be so daft. This is the time to start, as most reckon the job market to pick up in a few months, it takes more than a year to train, and there were previous forecasts of shortfalls. Since the schools are not putting enough students through this is still likely."
Yeah, my @rse.
Thirdly, everyone here has the right to their opinion including me. I am interested to hear yours but simply asserting the view that things will pick up without any kind of rationalisation to back that up is kinda pointless. I 'hope' it picks up to.
So lets summarise what we know:
a) Virgin to lay off 160 pilots
b) Gill to to lay off 60 pilots
c) BA have around 300 pilots with nothing to do and their status is unknown
d) BA have cancelled all recuitment and the guys on the TEP will not be offered jobs upon graduation
e) British Midland cadets will similarly not be offered jobs upon graduation
f) Britannia have cancelled all the people they have offered jobs to in the last approx 4 month, i.e. those that have not completed type training.
g) Airtours and Air2000 Autumn sponsorship is cancelled.
What I *hear* from my contacts and could well prove to be idle specualtion is:
i) A high quality Aer Lingus insider tells me they are expecting an announcement today for 1,800 redundancies and all 48 cadets currently under training will be cancelled.
ii) Scrubbed.
iii) JMC will cancel all people they have taken on but who have not completed type training.
iv) Recruitment to all the previous regionals (Brymon, Britsh Regional) now under the BACE umbrella is cancelled in the same manner as BA proper.
v) Aer Lingus will make 120 pilots off the bottom of the seniority list redundant in the next 2 months.
vi) All British European recruitment cancelled in the same manner as BA.
----------------------------
To my eyes that looks pretty much like the demand side is closed off. ANY jobs with airlines still recruiting which may include the low cost sector is going to be satisfied by guys leaving Virgin and Gill.
Casting an eye askance at the supply side we see approx figures of:
150 BA cadets
40 British Midland cadets
50 Aer Lingus cadets
26 Airtours cadets
---
266ish ex-sponsored cadets on the loose...
Plus of course approx 300 students currently on full time courses self sponsored.
So 266 + 300 = 566 Frzn ATPL graduates to hit the market in the next <12 months.
Not counting the guys training under the more drawn out modular route. (est. 200)
And not counting flying instructors and people already graduated looking for jobs. (est. 350)
Discounting completly people training in Member JAA states that have the right to work here (i.e. 14 countries) and hold a valid license (i.e. JAA just like you and I).
So one could argue we have 566 + 200 + 350 = 1,116ish people looking for jobs 12 months from now IF we accept the argument that any hiring over the next 12 months will be satisfied by the Virgin and Gill boys.
Now. Of that 1,116 people, lets say 116 are hopeless cases and no threat to your job prospects anyway.
Out of the 1,100 remaining at least 200 will not be able to keep their ratings alive for >12 months due to them being destitute they have to leave the market - leaving 900.
Out of the 900 remaining at least 200 will have well paid jobs they can go back to to wait for the upturn and keep their ratings and recency in good shape. They are temporarily out of the market.
Of the 700 remaining who can *just* about manage to keep their ratings current whilst stacking shelves perhaps 200 will find work as instructors or doing other aerial work for minimal money like parachute dropping.
Leaving 500 people chasing every one job that gets advertised in 12-24 months time.
Of those 500 at least 100 will be very wealthy and able to pay for type ratings.
*If* the jobs market returns to normal which means hiring about 200 low time pilots a year into any kind of job involving an aircraft heavier than 4 tonnes then those people training now, either starting or finishing, a one year course, have between two and half and three and a half years to wait post graduation for their first job.
There is of course a wide margin for improvement on those figures if this crisis eases rapidly. Equally there is a wide margin the other way.
Those are the numbers as I see them today. I - like you - cannot predict the coming war or peace nor the state of the world economy over the next 5 years. So lets stop trying - its pretty pointless and the threads get us nowhere.
Now I would like to step away from the mildly empirical and revert to the anecdotal. Indulge me or criticise me as you see fit:
In several threads I have drawn on my observations of a self sponsored course of students that went through BAE in Jerez last year that I had rather a lot to do with and now count, in some cases, as good friends. Of the stronger end of the course post-graduation one got BA mainline, one got Britannia and two got LoganAir. The BA and Britannia guys have both been told their services are no longer required, good luck with your future careers. The Loganair guys are OK.
Up until WTC I was bullish about Wannabe prospects citing the fact that self sponsored guys I knew were getting quality jobs within 2 months of graduating. Plus sponsorship was becoming easier as airlines struggled to attract as many high calibre applicants as they once did.
The fact that TODAY all the SPONSORED guys at Jerez *and* Oxford (BA, BMi, Aer Lingus and Airtours) face the very distinct possibility of 'no job' in addition to the possibly bleak immediate future of all self sponsored students meens I *have* to be very bearish about advising people to start training.
I wish it were otherwise.
There is an argument that has some relevance here and I heard it well expressed by Capt PPRuNe himself who started training in 1991 during the last crisis. It goes like this. You train when others don't and you therefore get a lot of attention from the school and the instructors as you are a very valued customer.
You graduate and its hard but if you can find any kind of work you will survive and be building hours. When the upturn starts you have the contacts to notice and you can get in on the ground floor. You will then get a 1st job which is not great but often provides great training for your later career. Typically a lot of hand flying raw data, taking **** and getting the job done (CRM). When things take off you are at the head of the queue and get the job you dreamed off. The Good Times roll and you do well rising rapidly through the seniority ranks as people get hired behind you. When the NEXT recession comes and pilots start being layed off *you* are relatively high up on the serniority list and thus reasonable safe from reducndancy. You survive and by the time the next slowdown arrives in another 10 years you are a veteran captain and more or less bulletproof unless your airline collapses.
In the long game then those that can could take advantage. I would have to say though that perhaps this thinking is best suited to a more mature person who has less personal debt to finance like perhaps the career changer rather than the younger Wannabe. But its a thought.
What I fear is "fighting the last war" syndrome on this forum. I mean NO disrespect to IFR and others whatsoever - indeed I thank them for their time and the value of their lifelong insight in bothering to make posts here - but I believe things are different today because the industry is so much bigger than it was even 10 years ago.
Basically in the early 90's there were 200 people at OATS 120 at BAE and CABAIR/SECOAT and 90 at what as to become SFT. You can double those figures today. You can also double the number of pilots who will be surplus to requirement becuase every airline there is is either twice the size they were in 1991, bust, or have been founded since the early 1990's (Airtours <biggest UK Charter airliner> Ryanair <biggest low cost airline - and worth MORE than BA today... easyJet, Go). So you will have twice the number of layoffs coupled with twice the number of students entering the market IF the conditions are no worse and no better than 1991.
In addition you have the totally Left Field introduction of JAA. This means of course that at the moment anyone holding a JAA licence AND coming from an EU state can apply for a UK airline job. THIS was NOT the case in the in early 90's or before. OF course *you* have the same rights, errr, you DO speak Dutch/German/Belgian.
Plus in the early 90's a lot of pilots escaped off to Asia which was still doing well and hiring. This time its Europe that is the best spot to be and that ain't looking too rosy as discussed.
So thats it. My thoughts as of today.
I would be delighted to read cogent arguments refuting my overall - lets face it - negative line.
Remember, part of my role here is to *stimulate* debate. However on this issue my own mind is pretty clear. Perhaps I am wrong, if so, please tell me.
Good luck to all you guys out there caught up in this, particularly Rob, John, Russell, Tony, Mike and Steve - hang in there,
Regards, the
Wee Weasley Welshman
ps In 5 years time all this will very probably be a bad memory.
[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]
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WWW,
A superbly written and reasoned argument, I feel I can't really do justice to it with a quick reply.
But, while I think about it (!) Would you not agree that what you are doing is extrapolating an accountant's short term negative and pessimistic view over a much longer period. These guys who are making the decisions are focused by the next quarter's results, not on what could be a 40 year career for someone just starting out.
You are correct when you say the industry is very different now than it was 10 years ago, but that also works in the positive sense, flying is a mass market now, everybody "jets" off to sunny places now, not just the rich and famous. I really can't see this changing in the medium or long term. Which is the timeframe that people starting their flying careers now need to think in.
More soon,
A superbly written and reasoned argument, I feel I can't really do justice to it with a quick reply.
But, while I think about it (!) Would you not agree that what you are doing is extrapolating an accountant's short term negative and pessimistic view over a much longer period. These guys who are making the decisions are focused by the next quarter's results, not on what could be a 40 year career for someone just starting out.
You are correct when you say the industry is very different now than it was 10 years ago, but that also works in the positive sense, flying is a mass market now, everybody "jets" off to sunny places now, not just the rich and famous. I really can't see this changing in the medium or long term. Which is the timeframe that people starting their flying careers now need to think in.
More soon,
Thread Starter
That varies by definition of what yuo mean by current.
*My* definition would be a raw data single engine approach with competent calls. At least 25hrs GH stick time per annum might be a lesser definition.
WWW
*My* definition would be a raw data single engine approach with competent calls. At least 25hrs GH stick time per annum might be a lesser definition.
WWW
Thread Starter
Hmm, I'll talk in the morning - at the moment I am knackered from a BFS - STN - NCE - STN run this evening.
WWW
[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]
WWW
[ 22 September 2001: Message edited by: Wee Weasley Welshman ]
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If the scenario that WWW describes is true and a large number of wannabe's suspend there training or stop completely, what will the effect be on flying schools, instructors and the price of training.
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Weasley, you forgot to include in your analysis the Ansett Australia pilots out of a job since their company went bust the week before the WTC. There's several hundred pilots sitting on their thumbs with nowhere to go in Oz right now, I reckon you can plan on at least 50 to 100 of them hitting the job market in UK before you can say 'grandparent entry visa'. And yes they're all type rated, current and highly experienced jet jockeys.
There could of course be a much greater number than that, depending on how things go with the rescue plan down there. Personally I can't see any bank touching a bankrupt airline with a 40 foot pole this week.
Not really going to help wannabe related matters here, but I'm hardly the one to say so am I??
There could of course be a much greater number than that, depending on how things go with the rescue plan down there. Personally I can't see any bank touching a bankrupt airline with a 40 foot pole this week.
Not really going to help wannabe related matters here, but I'm hardly the one to say so am I??
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WWW - I think you made your points fairly clear on the other threads.
The numbers you speak of are interesting.
At the end of the day, I think everyone needs to wait and see what happens over the coming 1-2 months.
I'm sure this won't be the last post from WWW or from others on this topic - but its all conjecture and speculation.
The numbers you speak of are interesting.
At the end of the day, I think everyone needs to wait and see what happens over the coming 1-2 months.
I'm sure this won't be the last post from WWW or from others on this topic - but its all conjecture and speculation.
Thread Starter
no sponsor - well actually I was trying to get away from speculation and deal with hard figures. I imagine that a lot of worried Wannabes at this time are turning to PPRuNe FOR speculations and conjecture on the crisis, I think thats our role here...
Luke - yep I deliberately avoided including Ansett crews and expats returning from the 4 corners of the globe becuase its too speculative and I was trying to avoid that.
Hightower - margins in flightraining are very slim and there will be little in terms of fee reduction. It didn't happen to any great extent in the 1991 crisis. What you find is the marginal players go the wall and there are fewer schools to choose from. What does happen is that you get a bit more loving care and attention as the cashflow you are providing becomes more valuable. Also the harassed FI's who for the last couple of years have been flat out with students chasing them around campus nagging for lessons will be able and willing to give you a better service.
Rich Tea - I meant single engine approach in a twin.
I welcome peoples counterpoints or hole picking in my analysis. Peer review and all that.
Good luck,
WWW
Luke - yep I deliberately avoided including Ansett crews and expats returning from the 4 corners of the globe becuase its too speculative and I was trying to avoid that.
Hightower - margins in flightraining are very slim and there will be little in terms of fee reduction. It didn't happen to any great extent in the 1991 crisis. What you find is the marginal players go the wall and there are fewer schools to choose from. What does happen is that you get a bit more loving care and attention as the cashflow you are providing becomes more valuable. Also the harassed FI's who for the last couple of years have been flat out with students chasing them around campus nagging for lessons will be able and willing to give you a better service.
Rich Tea - I meant single engine approach in a twin.
I welcome peoples counterpoints or hole picking in my analysis. Peer review and all that.
Good luck,
WWW
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It’s fair to say that we ALL know things are bad. Just how bad seems to be a very popular subject, beyond advising those not in the system, to slow down.
I think it’s also fair to say that life will go on and people will fly, in ever increasing numbers.
There can be no doubt that the transatlantic market is ****** in the short to maybe medium term, but that’s ‘perhaps’ not going to effect us as much as being stated
It’s also true that BA made a complete balls of their marketing strategy and are where they are today as a result of their own mismanagement and assessment of the short haul market.
GO Easeyjet et all continue to thrive as will some of the smaller regionals (Gill excluded, again for reasons unrelated to the present crisis)
Low cost Air travel is on the up and will be more so as the business traveller moves in greater numbers towards it…more problems for BA and BM!
Now this is the Wanabees forum, so lets look at a possible scenario which is not about existing Long haul £80k pa captains etc etc.
This is pure hypothesis, as NO ONE knows how things will pan out over the next few months,
Scenario:
Small regional operator looking for new, low cost FO, (it WILL continue to happen!!)
Candidates:
1 Redundant Long haul FO, living hundreds of miles away or even OZ or other JAA State, loads of experience, prepared to drop salary by say 50%.
2 Local instructor 1200hrs keen to move on will be happy with the low but going rate salary… there for the long-ish run.
If I were that employer I would know that the moment candidate (1) had a sniff of working nearer home, at anything approaching his last salary, he would be off at the speed of light and I would be back to square one. So perhaps the flood of available pilots have the edge on paper, but employers do look further than their noses.
CEP schemes
Dead in the water for the time being, because there are, for reasons given enough qualified and available pilots to plug the gaps at a fraction of the training cost. Without doubt the biggest negative effect of the current crisis.
So it’s NOT good at the moment, we ALL know that and don’t need half a dozen threads to rub it in! Let’s try and give those on this forum who are up to their necks in **** , at least a glimmer of hope…...PLEASE!!!
I think it’s also fair to say that life will go on and people will fly, in ever increasing numbers.
There can be no doubt that the transatlantic market is ****** in the short to maybe medium term, but that’s ‘perhaps’ not going to effect us as much as being stated
It’s also true that BA made a complete balls of their marketing strategy and are where they are today as a result of their own mismanagement and assessment of the short haul market.
GO Easeyjet et all continue to thrive as will some of the smaller regionals (Gill excluded, again for reasons unrelated to the present crisis)
Low cost Air travel is on the up and will be more so as the business traveller moves in greater numbers towards it…more problems for BA and BM!
Now this is the Wanabees forum, so lets look at a possible scenario which is not about existing Long haul £80k pa captains etc etc.
This is pure hypothesis, as NO ONE knows how things will pan out over the next few months,
Scenario:
Small regional operator looking for new, low cost FO, (it WILL continue to happen!!)
Candidates:
1 Redundant Long haul FO, living hundreds of miles away or even OZ or other JAA State, loads of experience, prepared to drop salary by say 50%.
2 Local instructor 1200hrs keen to move on will be happy with the low but going rate salary… there for the long-ish run.
If I were that employer I would know that the moment candidate (1) had a sniff of working nearer home, at anything approaching his last salary, he would be off at the speed of light and I would be back to square one. So perhaps the flood of available pilots have the edge on paper, but employers do look further than their noses.
CEP schemes
Dead in the water for the time being, because there are, for reasons given enough qualified and available pilots to plug the gaps at a fraction of the training cost. Without doubt the biggest negative effect of the current crisis.
So it’s NOT good at the moment, we ALL know that and don’t need half a dozen threads to rub it in! Let’s try and give those on this forum who are up to their necks in **** , at least a glimmer of hope…...PLEASE!!!
Thread Starter
I'm not in the hope business - wannabes have that in abundance - I'm in the advice business.
Your regional TP airline will quite happily take an applicant with prior commercial experience over someone with none. Training risk is eliminated and if they leave inside of three year they will get a chunk of bond money back. The low time guy will still be kicking around willing to take the place of the guy who has now returned to his big jet.
But there is some truth in your thinking cp. Its just that for every job going at Brymon/Brit Regional/Logan/Eatern/Aurigny/Atlantic/Emerald et al over the next 2 years there could well be around 700 applicants. Tough market that.
WWW
Your regional TP airline will quite happily take an applicant with prior commercial experience over someone with none. Training risk is eliminated and if they leave inside of three year they will get a chunk of bond money back. The low time guy will still be kicking around willing to take the place of the guy who has now returned to his big jet.
But there is some truth in your thinking cp. Its just that for every job going at Brymon/Brit Regional/Logan/Eatern/Aurigny/Atlantic/Emerald et al over the next 2 years there could well be around 700 applicants. Tough market that.
WWW
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OK,
So the advice to those in training is to slow down or not start for a while. ...(Makes sense!)
Whats the advice to a 400hr CPL/IR?
Give up all hope?? and look at the negative side of life only?
So the advice to those in training is to slow down or not start for a while. ...(Makes sense!)
Whats the advice to a 400hr CPL/IR?
Give up all hope?? and look at the negative side of life only?
Thread Starter
clear prop!!! I feel for you I really do.
What are your options? Well it depends hugely on peronal circumstance.
Keep building hours in your case I guess. If that does not pay enough then get a better job - perhaps in aviation but not driving 'em... That at least will allow enough cashflow to keep the multi and IR current.
Keep applying but don't plan to get far for a couple of years.
Hard 'innit?
WWW
What are your options? Well it depends hugely on peronal circumstance.
Keep building hours in your case I guess. If that does not pay enough then get a better job - perhaps in aviation but not driving 'em... That at least will allow enough cashflow to keep the multi and IR current.
Keep applying but don't plan to get far for a couple of years.
Hard 'innit?
WWW
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WWW,
Having previously accepted some of your "words of wisdom", I feel that things are getting a bit out of had now. The last thing people want to hear is the speculations of an ex-self improver with a whole 3/4 months experience in the industry. To add to that, I suggest that you validate some of your sources before commiting to this forum as I know at least 2 of your points are wide of the mark to say the least.
There are people far better placed to speculate on this forum than yourself, but they seem to be keeping quiet - perhaps because they've seen it all before. While I believe your motives are genuine, do you not think that a person in your position should be trying to calm the situation down as opposed to "fueling the fire"??
Regards,
SF.
Having previously accepted some of your "words of wisdom", I feel that things are getting a bit out of had now. The last thing people want to hear is the speculations of an ex-self improver with a whole 3/4 months experience in the industry. To add to that, I suggest that you validate some of your sources before commiting to this forum as I know at least 2 of your points are wide of the mark to say the least.
There are people far better placed to speculate on this forum than yourself, but they seem to be keeping quiet - perhaps because they've seen it all before. While I believe your motives are genuine, do you not think that a person in your position should be trying to calm the situation down as opposed to "fueling the fire"??
Regards,
SF.
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WWW, a slight update. Those in the BA TEP scheme WILL be offered jobs by the company, although there wil be an extended delay between graduation and contract. You are correct about the bmi guys, and Aer Lingus guys are still at Oxford, having had their sponsorship ended and bonds released. They will require 20k between the 20 of them to finish off their IR and MCC so me thinks they'll all finish!
Thread Starter
Sothern Fairey - 2 points wide of the mark? Which ones?
PLEASE tell me so I can correct them. I'm TRYING to put out decent Gen here.
Sniping at me and not helping I don't need.
I'm not fueling anything unless airline management read my comments and decide hiring policy on my say so.
I keep hearing the words of General Meltchit ringing in my ears - "Thats right George, if all else fails a pig-headed refusal to look facts in the face will see us through - baa!".
I am a Moderator but this does not mean I have to have moderate views. I just stop posts that infringe the PPRuNe user agreement.
Don't shoot the messenger. And please email me those points where I am wide of the mark. Duff Gen we *don't* need right now.
Cheers,
WWW
PLEASE tell me so I can correct them. I'm TRYING to put out decent Gen here.
Sniping at me and not helping I don't need.
I'm not fueling anything unless airline management read my comments and decide hiring policy on my say so.
I keep hearing the words of General Meltchit ringing in my ears - "Thats right George, if all else fails a pig-headed refusal to look facts in the face will see us through - baa!".
I am a Moderator but this does not mean I have to have moderate views. I just stop posts that infringe the PPRuNe user agreement.
Don't shoot the messenger. And please email me those points where I am wide of the mark. Duff Gen we *don't* need right now.
Cheers,
WWW
Thread Starter
Ralph - any Gen on the length of the extended delay ? In the early 90's it was 4 years for some guys! Hopefully it will be a lot less this time around.
WWW
WWW
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WWW, with respect I think this gloom and doom is not at all helpful! If I may so you seem hell bent on providing enough figures to guide everyone through a quick course in economics. It is just is not like that.
The airline industry has always worked on the principal of gaining and guarding. Gain while you can. Guard when you have to. That means shedding jobs et al if push comes to shove.
I also note with interest that you have removed a paragraph from your original post suggesting that the current chat maybe suffering "the war years syndrome", a sideways reference to me I think it was. Unless you think I am older git than I am, but what is a "war years syndrome"? I started my first airline in 1977 and saw off two recessions, and still managed to employ pilots. You also referred to airlines and the industry being a lot bigger now. I fail to see what difference that makes? Size has no effect other than make the result greater.
I suggest these 'facts' you expound are only relevant in that they are fact. I assume they are fact anyway. But it makes no difference to the overall picture because the fall-out has ALWAYS been there. You have no experience, unless YOU are older than I think you are, of the many things that happened in the 70's and the 80's. When airline problems were at their worst. The problems of '91 were not all recession related. In fact I can't re-call one, other than perhaps Dan-Air, which was in many ways a stitch-up. You ask the pilots, the guys and girls too. Indidentally, I worked with some of those pilots and they were some of the best in the business - still are. Their treatment was appalling.
I believe the airlines have grasped a "golden opportunity". Thus I suspect that some cut-backs were uneccessary. But still you might as well re-cut a drab cloth eh?
Whenever these things have happened the airlines have always bounced back. You might care to re-read my original post on my other thread. I agreed with you on a few points but not on others, just as I am doing now. Scroggs said that we were talking the same language, advising our wannabes, who mean a lot to this "old git", that they should be careful about spending large sums of money.
No problem there.
But I have advised them to advance themselves by taking a step at a time so that they don't get left behind. Having met them and 'talked' to them I have great respect for their judgement. I think they are quite capable of being a good 'master' of their own destiny. But I am NOT advocating that we remove the destiny!
The Airlines will be back. There will also be new airlines. That has always happened too. Jobs will be offered back on different terms, and it is highly likely that the current encumbent work force's will be asked to "re-arrange" their terms of contract. Watch this space!
But WWW, I am trying to encourage them. Telling them that things are very difficult right now is rather pointless. They know that already!!
Normality WILL return, when is another matter, customer confidence WILL return, sooner rather than later, as it always has done, but MAY be delayed. But it WILL happen.
In the last paragraph of my last post on my thread I have told poeple to put any pessimism they might have in the bin, and slam the lid shut. It's not a good time, but being pessimistic is a pointless waste of time. Be optimistic but be frugal with it is all I am suggesting.
The NOW situation, will not last. It never has.
Encouragement WWW, all other info is just that - information. It may of course help them understand the situation but it bears no relationship to the future, which will in due time be rather brighter. DON'T GIVE UP'
The airline industry has always worked on the principal of gaining and guarding. Gain while you can. Guard when you have to. That means shedding jobs et al if push comes to shove.
I also note with interest that you have removed a paragraph from your original post suggesting that the current chat maybe suffering "the war years syndrome", a sideways reference to me I think it was. Unless you think I am older git than I am, but what is a "war years syndrome"? I started my first airline in 1977 and saw off two recessions, and still managed to employ pilots. You also referred to airlines and the industry being a lot bigger now. I fail to see what difference that makes? Size has no effect other than make the result greater.
I suggest these 'facts' you expound are only relevant in that they are fact. I assume they are fact anyway. But it makes no difference to the overall picture because the fall-out has ALWAYS been there. You have no experience, unless YOU are older than I think you are, of the many things that happened in the 70's and the 80's. When airline problems were at their worst. The problems of '91 were not all recession related. In fact I can't re-call one, other than perhaps Dan-Air, which was in many ways a stitch-up. You ask the pilots, the guys and girls too. Indidentally, I worked with some of those pilots and they were some of the best in the business - still are. Their treatment was appalling.
I believe the airlines have grasped a "golden opportunity". Thus I suspect that some cut-backs were uneccessary. But still you might as well re-cut a drab cloth eh?
Whenever these things have happened the airlines have always bounced back. You might care to re-read my original post on my other thread. I agreed with you on a few points but not on others, just as I am doing now. Scroggs said that we were talking the same language, advising our wannabes, who mean a lot to this "old git", that they should be careful about spending large sums of money.
No problem there.
But I have advised them to advance themselves by taking a step at a time so that they don't get left behind. Having met them and 'talked' to them I have great respect for their judgement. I think they are quite capable of being a good 'master' of their own destiny. But I am NOT advocating that we remove the destiny!
The Airlines will be back. There will also be new airlines. That has always happened too. Jobs will be offered back on different terms, and it is highly likely that the current encumbent work force's will be asked to "re-arrange" their terms of contract. Watch this space!
But WWW, I am trying to encourage them. Telling them that things are very difficult right now is rather pointless. They know that already!!
Normality WILL return, when is another matter, customer confidence WILL return, sooner rather than later, as it always has done, but MAY be delayed. But it WILL happen.
In the last paragraph of my last post on my thread I have told poeple to put any pessimism they might have in the bin, and slam the lid shut. It's not a good time, but being pessimistic is a pointless waste of time. Be optimistic but be frugal with it is all I am suggesting.
The NOW situation, will not last. It never has.
Encouragement WWW, all other info is just that - information. It may of course help them understand the situation but it bears no relationship to the future, which will in due time be rather brighter. DON'T GIVE UP'
Thread Starter
Yep - I agree the industry will bounce back. No arguments there.
I just can't see more than a handful of self sponsored graduates with a fresh Frzn ATPL and 200hrs getting hired by an airline for the next 18 months. I just can't.
Or am I missing something?
I've spent YEARS encouraging Wannabes to get into the industry. Now I encouraging them not to for a while.
Loads will anyway.
Cheers,
WWW
ps just heard that all the Aer Lingus cadets have been visited and told to expect the worst with a decision to be issued next week.
I just can't see more than a handful of self sponsored graduates with a fresh Frzn ATPL and 200hrs getting hired by an airline for the next 18 months. I just can't.
Or am I missing something?
I've spent YEARS encouraging Wannabes to get into the industry. Now I encouraging them not to for a while.
Loads will anyway.
Cheers,
WWW
ps just heard that all the Aer Lingus cadets have been visited and told to expect the worst with a decision to be issued next week.
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Just wondering about the cadets currently in training schools .
If they are released would it not be the case that they would be called first when the airline starts hiring
again?
Does not seem to make sense that the airlines would spend all that money selecting and training them only to lose them for good.
Just Wondering.
If they are released would it not be the case that they would be called first when the airline starts hiring
again?
Does not seem to make sense that the airlines would spend all that money selecting and training them only to lose them for good.
Just Wondering.