Just back from a few days away- a few more thoughts.
Scroggs is right about the limited impact of the Gulf War, the REAL reasons for the airline woes at the time was in fact far more complex- although, as with this present crisis, airlines were quick to blame the war when their tottering operations crumbled. Then, as now, many made swingeing cuts in their operations in the hope of getting some compensation from the government, by blaming it all on the war.
I travelled internationally several times during that period, including to the Middle East, and the only airlines that seemed to be badly affected were US airlines.
Anyway, now, as then, certain worrying trends (for wannabes) will probably start to emerge:
- the selling of type ratings to gullible, and/or ruthless wannabes, in order to "be considered" for a job; the well-known BM modus operandi.
- the growth of a "second tier" of new recruits, on less favourable terms and conditions, and probably short-term contracts.
- the increase in the number of airlines looking to training organisations to provide a "one-shot" recruitment solution, and the subsequent ramping of charges by schools that are seen to be likely to provide a fast track to a job.
Unfortunately, the world has now changed, and we have to accept some new realities, unpalatable as they may be.
Very sad flying out of NCL this week, operating ex-Gill routes, and seeing all their aircraft parked up with snowplows parked in front of them. A reminder that most of our jobs hang by a not-too-strong thread.
Finally, the last time this happened, a large number of the recruits who got the first jobs when hiring started again, were in fact low-houred, newly-qualified guys. There are many reasons why that may be, but the point is that those who got qualified and were ready, got the jobs. Often it came down to who could get to a type-rating course the quickest... don't be fooled into believing that wannabes are automatically at the back of the queue, they aren't.