Crisis
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Well, I must admit that I share many of WWW's sentiments currently and am certainly concerned about my possible future in the industry although my main concern at the moment is whether my partner (BA Cabin Crew) and some of my friends (BA Flight Crew) are going to have jobs in a week or two!
I have found WWW's postings worrying in the past but I honestly think that he has our best interests at heart and I would rather have someone moderating who errs on the side of caution than some idiot who encourages me to spend £50K when the qualification is going to be as useful as a chocolate fireguard!
I'm quite lucky in that I'm looking at a modular route and have only just dipped into my funds for training (I was supposed to be spending 3 weeks in the States this month....but I think I'd best wait a bit!!)and as I'm currently working I'm fortunate enough to hang on in there until things settle down a touch. However, I want to continue with the training, albeit at a slightly slower pace and was wondering if getting my FI rating would be useful to get flying hours in while I wait for the situation to improve (but there again, maybe that's what everyone else will be doing so there'll be no FI jobs anyways!). WWW, your opinion please!
I have found WWW's postings worrying in the past but I honestly think that he has our best interests at heart and I would rather have someone moderating who errs on the side of caution than some idiot who encourages me to spend £50K when the qualification is going to be as useful as a chocolate fireguard!
I'm quite lucky in that I'm looking at a modular route and have only just dipped into my funds for training (I was supposed to be spending 3 weeks in the States this month....but I think I'd best wait a bit!!)and as I'm currently working I'm fortunate enough to hang on in there until things settle down a touch. However, I want to continue with the training, albeit at a slightly slower pace and was wondering if getting my FI rating would be useful to get flying hours in while I wait for the situation to improve (but there again, maybe that's what everyone else will be doing so there'll be no FI jobs anyways!). WWW, your opinion please!
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Oops!
WWW, just read your post re: FI jobs in the '...it will all work out' post - I don't want to waste your time repeating yourself so instead, what would be your suggestion for gaining 'useful' flying hours until the aviation industry straightens itself out? I'd like to spend my time as usefully as possible - a few friends of mine enjoy chucking themselves out of planes at 10,000ft
but I don't know enough of them to make it a profitable exercise!
WWW, just read your post re: FI jobs in the '...it will all work out' post - I don't want to waste your time repeating yourself so instead, what would be your suggestion for gaining 'useful' flying hours until the aviation industry straightens itself out? I'd like to spend my time as usefully as possible - a few friends of mine enjoy chucking themselves out of planes at 10,000ft
but I don't know enough of them to make it a profitable exercise!
Join Date: Apr 2001
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Now Gill is another story all together, so lets not roll that piece of bad news into what is undoubtedly a very bad time for transatlantic aviation.
Gill, ‘apparently’, was an undercapitalised airline with unpopular, unprofitable routes.
The company had already been in administration last year and had failed to impress the Banks that it could make a go of things. Any company in any industry would be in the situation that Gill are now. The above is written with no disrespect to those who have suffered the effects of the Gill collapse.
As I see things, perhaps it’s not as bad as is being made out for wannabees.
Domestic and short haul routes 'should' be relatively unaffected. Indeed the budget operators are continuing to add routes and passengers… as we speak. Anyone who has made it to the long haul flight deck is way out of the salary scales on offer in the TP and budget market.
BA’s problem is that it has 38% of it’s market in transatlantic routes and the rest targeted to the business user. I mean, £300 to fly from London to Scotland has got to be under the microscope of any business user when a recession is round the corner! No wonder they have problems!
Maybe one argument could be that the regionals and budget operators (the first step on the ladder for most of us), will continue flourish and the market for low salaried FO’s will remain buoyant?…Just a thought.
And WWW, I hate to say it, but you are beginning to sound like the Grim Reaper.
You are right, it’s perhaps not the time to dive into £50k’s worth of training, but it’s also not the time for those in the system or through it to slit their wrists! ...yet
Gill, ‘apparently’, was an undercapitalised airline with unpopular, unprofitable routes.
The company had already been in administration last year and had failed to impress the Banks that it could make a go of things. Any company in any industry would be in the situation that Gill are now. The above is written with no disrespect to those who have suffered the effects of the Gill collapse.
As I see things, perhaps it’s not as bad as is being made out for wannabees.
Domestic and short haul routes 'should' be relatively unaffected. Indeed the budget operators are continuing to add routes and passengers… as we speak. Anyone who has made it to the long haul flight deck is way out of the salary scales on offer in the TP and budget market.
BA’s problem is that it has 38% of it’s market in transatlantic routes and the rest targeted to the business user. I mean, £300 to fly from London to Scotland has got to be under the microscope of any business user when a recession is round the corner! No wonder they have problems!
Maybe one argument could be that the regionals and budget operators (the first step on the ladder for most of us), will continue flourish and the market for low salaried FO’s will remain buoyant?…Just a thought.
And WWW, I hate to say it, but you are beginning to sound like the Grim Reaper.
You are right, it’s perhaps not the time to dive into £50k’s worth of training, but it’s also not the time for those in the system or through it to slit their wrists! ...yet
Join Date: Aug 2000
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I'm another wise guy ( 
), so here we go:
If you wanna survive, if you wanna have your family survive, if you wanna have work, IF YOU WANNA BE A PRO PILOT, THEN DO EVERYTHING IT TAKES TO PREVENT A 3RD WORLD WAR!!!
Sounds pessimistic? Well think again. The whole story may get outta hand real quick, and then
Crisis? Yes we are in one. I'm one of the hundreds of Swissair Group's pilots waiting for the difficult decisions to be communicated most probably tomorrow, expecting radical cuts in the workforce.
Is it gonna get worse? Almost sure. Look at the economics, unstability, etc.
How long? Sure difficult to say, but count on at least 2 years up to...
You wanna ride thru the storm? Well, don't forget one thing: if you don't get the covered job, YOU have to keep your licence valid. And this might be for quite a long time. And as you know, the whole game is expensive.
Personnal advice:
You have started your training, mortgaged house and wife? Then finish the whole thing and start looking for a job, any flying job. Luck might be with you...
You have not started out? As previously written by others, wait a bit to see how things will progress. Luck might be with you...
To everybody, best of luck
), so here we go:If you wanna survive, if you wanna have your family survive, if you wanna have work, IF YOU WANNA BE A PRO PILOT, THEN DO EVERYTHING IT TAKES TO PREVENT A 3RD WORLD WAR!!!
Sounds pessimistic? Well think again. The whole story may get outta hand real quick, and then
Crisis? Yes we are in one. I'm one of the hundreds of Swissair Group's pilots waiting for the difficult decisions to be communicated most probably tomorrow, expecting radical cuts in the workforce.
Is it gonna get worse? Almost sure. Look at the economics, unstability, etc.
How long? Sure difficult to say, but count on at least 2 years up to...
You wanna ride thru the storm? Well, don't forget one thing: if you don't get the covered job, YOU have to keep your licence valid. And this might be for quite a long time. And as you know, the whole game is expensive.
Personnal advice:
You have started your training, mortgaged house and wife? Then finish the whole thing and start looking for a job, any flying job. Luck might be with you...
You have not started out? As previously written by others, wait a bit to see how things will progress. Luck might be with you...
To everybody, best of luck
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Guys,
some of you are under the impression that unemployed longhaul and jet pilots are priced out of the regional or budget airlines. If you are out of work and a job comes along then you take it. Any salary is better than none. If the smaller operators can choose between a 200 hr graduate or a 5000hr experienced and possibly type rated pilot for their operation, then no prizes for guessing who gets first refusal. Eventually as things pick up, the experienced pilot may move on leaving a space for the new boys. Thats the way it was,is now and will be. It is hard but operators will always pick the candidate who requires the least amount of training and costs the least amount to insure.Only when there are no more do the goalposts move.
I am facing the boot and can assure you that I will not hesitate to take a lower paid job even for a couple of years until things get better. If you are in employment in or out of aviation then be grateful.Many are not.
some of you are under the impression that unemployed longhaul and jet pilots are priced out of the regional or budget airlines. If you are out of work and a job comes along then you take it. Any salary is better than none. If the smaller operators can choose between a 200 hr graduate or a 5000hr experienced and possibly type rated pilot for their operation, then no prizes for guessing who gets first refusal. Eventually as things pick up, the experienced pilot may move on leaving a space for the new boys. Thats the way it was,is now and will be. It is hard but operators will always pick the candidate who requires the least amount of training and costs the least amount to insure.Only when there are no more do the goalposts move.
I am facing the boot and can assure you that I will not hesitate to take a lower paid job even for a couple of years until things get better. If you are in employment in or out of aviation then be grateful.Many are not.
Join Date: Feb 2001
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Surely a willingness to work regardless of the salary is bad for pilots in the industry.
If for example previously to this disaster, a First Officer in a regional gets a take home salary of 23,000. They require a pilot and employ someone that is willing to take 15,000 as they see it as a short term measure.
Now if this happens in a few companies the general trend is the lowering of salaries. I guess that is good for the bean counters, and airlines but certainly not the best of ideas for pilots and future pilots.
Or do you mean, you are willing to take a lower paid job than you have presently but what even so the lower paid job is roughly the industry standard at present for such a carrier?
Sagey
If for example previously to this disaster, a First Officer in a regional gets a take home salary of 23,000. They require a pilot and employ someone that is willing to take 15,000 as they see it as a short term measure.
Now if this happens in a few companies the general trend is the lowering of salaries. I guess that is good for the bean counters, and airlines but certainly not the best of ideas for pilots and future pilots.
Or do you mean, you are willing to take a lower paid job than you have presently but what even so the lower paid job is roughly the industry standard at present for such a carrier?
Sagey
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Sagey,
I'm afraid it's simple economics; salaries will follow the principle of supply and demand, just like anything else. If there is an oversupply of qualified pilots, that will give downward pressure to salaries. A shortage tends to raise them. There's nothing you can do about that.
However, it's a little early to be predicting the end of job opportunities for all wannabes! My gut feeling at the moment is that there will be a recovery, and quite a strong one, within 12-18 months. Many of the experienced people will be re-absorbed by the remaining major airlines, and the commuters will be back to looking for some low-hour people to help fill their cockpits.
I have nothing to base this slightly more optimistic perspective on other than the fact that the world's economy isn't really in bad shape. Confidence has been hugely hit but, outside the airline and travel sector, most businesses are getting along quite well. They and their people will return to flying, sooner or later.
Once the stckmarkets have stopped their rather melodramatic wobblies, and people calm down and start to realistically assess the prospects for the future, I think you will find that the forecasts will start to be a bit brighter. We're still in aftershock, and lots of jobs are going to be lost right now, but they will come back.
It's a good time just to sit back and watch for a while, that's all.
I'm afraid it's simple economics; salaries will follow the principle of supply and demand, just like anything else. If there is an oversupply of qualified pilots, that will give downward pressure to salaries. A shortage tends to raise them. There's nothing you can do about that.
However, it's a little early to be predicting the end of job opportunities for all wannabes! My gut feeling at the moment is that there will be a recovery, and quite a strong one, within 12-18 months. Many of the experienced people will be re-absorbed by the remaining major airlines, and the commuters will be back to looking for some low-hour people to help fill their cockpits.
I have nothing to base this slightly more optimistic perspective on other than the fact that the world's economy isn't really in bad shape. Confidence has been hugely hit but, outside the airline and travel sector, most businesses are getting along quite well. They and their people will return to flying, sooner or later.
Once the stckmarkets have stopped their rather melodramatic wobblies, and people calm down and start to realistically assess the prospects for the future, I think you will find that the forecasts will start to be a bit brighter. We're still in aftershock, and lots of jobs are going to be lost right now, but they will come back.
It's a good time just to sit back and watch for a while, that's all.
Join Date: Mar 2001
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Well said Scroggs. My sentiment exactly.
It's the positive vibes that will bring the markets back, just as the negative ones are bringing it down. As you say, when reality creeps in, it will dawn on the pesimists that it's not that bad after all. We are not there yet, but we will get there.
I heard an interesting piece by the CEO of Ryan Air. He (naturaly) was making a case that a lot of the layoffs where in part being done in order to get a subsidy out of the government, much of it to the detriment of the low cost operators who's forcasts are very optimistic in the short term.
Good luck with today.
PS
It's the positive vibes that will bring the markets back, just as the negative ones are bringing it down. As you say, when reality creeps in, it will dawn on the pesimists that it's not that bad after all. We are not there yet, but we will get there.
I heard an interesting piece by the CEO of Ryan Air. He (naturaly) was making a case that a lot of the layoffs where in part being done in order to get a subsidy out of the government, much of it to the detriment of the low cost operators who's forcasts are very optimistic in the short term.
Good luck with today.
PS
Join Date: Nov 2000
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Sagey, get real.If I have a choice between unemployment, losing my house and everything else and a chance to either work for a smaller outfit or keep my present position at a lower salary... well what would you do?
Scroggs is probably right, the market will improve in time but the first to get the jobs will be those laid off by the majors,hopefully as part of the layoff agreement, followed by those type rated,followed by those with the best experience fit whose pose the least training risk.The low hours graduates will be bottom of the food chain until the demand exceeds the supply.Yes it will happen but you will need to be patient.
Scroggs, best of luck for today brother, I'm undergoing the agony as well.
Scroggs is probably right, the market will improve in time but the first to get the jobs will be those laid off by the majors,hopefully as part of the layoff agreement, followed by those type rated,followed by those with the best experience fit whose pose the least training risk.The low hours graduates will be bottom of the food chain until the demand exceeds the supply.Yes it will happen but you will need to be patient.
Scroggs, best of luck for today brother, I'm undergoing the agony as well.
Join Date: Jun 2001
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Base Leg
Hmm....intriguing! The government has seemed singularly disinterested in helping the civil aviation industry up until now. Does it seem likely that there will be any assistance similar to the support the US government is giving to their airlines?
Is this likely to stop further redundancies or just slow things down a touch?
I'd just like to offer my best wishes to all commercial pilots on the forum who are having a rather rough time at present. I'm sure all of us Wannabies would like to thank all the moderators who are taking the time to calm us down and advise us in addition to dealing with the security of their current job. Thanks Scroggs, IFR, WWW, etc!
Hmm....intriguing! The government has seemed singularly disinterested in helping the civil aviation industry up until now. Does it seem likely that there will be any assistance similar to the support the US government is giving to their airlines?
Is this likely to stop further redundancies or just slow things down a touch?
I'd just like to offer my best wishes to all commercial pilots on the forum who are having a rather rough time at present. I'm sure all of us Wannabies would like to thank all the moderators who are taking the time to calm us down and advise us in addition to dealing with the security of their current job. Thanks Scroggs, IFR, WWW, etc!
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I can assure you, Scroggs, that the world economy is not in good shape. Some industries are in a terrible way. The one I work in has lost an estimated 400,000 people within the last 6 months. My own partner has been made redundant from a 400 person company where 40% of the staff were let go. A huge number of companies have gone under.
Finding new business is as hard as ever, and extremely tough, margins are down, revenues are down, and so are all the forecasts - certainly for all the companies in my industry.
Travel is mostly reserved for essential business trips. These are not isolated across a few companies, but across a broad range. It was bad before 11th September.
Sure it will pick up in the future, but who knows when - none of us do, that's for sure.
Finding new business is as hard as ever, and extremely tough, margins are down, revenues are down, and so are all the forecasts - certainly for all the companies in my industry.
Travel is mostly reserved for essential business trips. These are not isolated across a few companies, but across a broad range. It was bad before 11th September.
Sure it will pick up in the future, but who knows when - none of us do, that's for sure.
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Scroggs,
Look up basic labour economics, and unfortunately there is a thing called sticky wages. This means that due to a number of factors, there is the theory that in fact in a recession wages do not go down, but simply the number of jobs decreases instead, and wgaes are in fact fairly inelastic.
Look up basic labour economics, and unfortunately there is a thing called sticky wages. This means that due to a number of factors, there is the theory that in fact in a recession wages do not go down, but simply the number of jobs decreases instead, and wgaes are in fact fairly inelastic.
Join Date: Feb 2001
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That was my point Lucifer, I have an economics degree etc.
Pilots are Unionised, and although this situation admittedly weakens their bargainning power I bet BALPA would not be too impressed people taking ridiculously low wages. It has a tendency to drive down wages in the industry.
The Airline industry needs fairly high wages as obtainning an ATPL is one hell of a Barrier to Entry for wannabes.
Supply and Demand do come into the equation admittedly, but so does Price setting and probably more importantly wage setting. They are all interlinked but it is far more complicated than just S+D
Sagey
Pilots are Unionised, and although this situation admittedly weakens their bargainning power I bet BALPA would not be too impressed people taking ridiculously low wages. It has a tendency to drive down wages in the industry.
The Airline industry needs fairly high wages as obtainning an ATPL is one hell of a Barrier to Entry for wannabes.
Supply and Demand do come into the equation admittedly, but so does Price setting and probably more importantly wage setting. They are all interlinked but it is far more complicated than just S+D
Sagey
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We've had all the economic arguments in the weeks before the WTC tragedy. No-one was seriously forecasting economic meltdown then, and nothing other than confidence has changed since. Confidence will return, eventually, otherwise we might just as well all give up now! Sure, some industries are/were having a hard time because of factors peculiar to those industries, but the macro-economic picture was not bad. Now it's bleak, but only because everyone keeps saying it is!
As for sticky wages, yes, I've heard of that. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that in times of plentiful supply of pilots, wages don't increase at the same rate as they do in times of shortage. Semantics, really. The net effect is much the same.
Keep your hopes up, because you've little else you can do!
As for sticky wages, yes, I've heard of that. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say that in times of plentiful supply of pilots, wages don't increase at the same rate as they do in times of shortage. Semantics, really. The net effect is much the same.
Keep your hopes up, because you've little else you can do!
Join Date: Feb 2001
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I totally agree there were maroeconomic effects on the Airline industry.
Unfortunately the WTC disaster has maximised this effects and has caused a severe "shock". This shock will not last forever, and hopes have to be kept.
I remember discussing this with my economics lecture at Uni, after he realised I wanted to become a pilot.
After the Gulf war he was asked to speak at a seminar on the Economic effects on Oil, airlines industry etc.
Apparently lots of economists were all doom and gloom an era of high oil prices, the end of the aviation industry as we know it. Will they ever recover.
As we know the Airline industry did recover, oil prices did fall, considerably quicker than these top economists thought. New Airlines appeared, and the industry boomed. This will happen again, the problem is when will it happen? It could be next year, 2 years even 5 years. Lets hope it is asap.
It is just shame that the minute I graduated, and probably everyone else on the board the industry is experiencing a slump. As a wannabe, it is the pilots that we should be thinking of, their jobs are on the line. Yes we want to join the industry, but as soon as the industry goes back nearer to full employment, and the need for more pilots the better for all of us.
Sagey
Unfortunately the WTC disaster has maximised this effects and has caused a severe "shock". This shock will not last forever, and hopes have to be kept.
I remember discussing this with my economics lecture at Uni, after he realised I wanted to become a pilot.
After the Gulf war he was asked to speak at a seminar on the Economic effects on Oil, airlines industry etc.
Apparently lots of economists were all doom and gloom an era of high oil prices, the end of the aviation industry as we know it. Will they ever recover.
As we know the Airline industry did recover, oil prices did fall, considerably quicker than these top economists thought. New Airlines appeared, and the industry boomed. This will happen again, the problem is when will it happen? It could be next year, 2 years even 5 years. Lets hope it is asap.
It is just shame that the minute I graduated, and probably everyone else on the board the industry is experiencing a slump. As a wannabe, it is the pilots that we should be thinking of, their jobs are on the line. Yes we want to join the industry, but as soon as the industry goes back nearer to full employment, and the need for more pilots the better for all of us.
Sagey
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Many companies in many industries in the UK where in a nose dive long before WTC horror.
At my dads work (long established international IT company) whole floors of workers layed off EVERY week. Three weeks ago he was shown the door (after 13 years service) with all his team. My sisters job is now set to fold (specialist HR consultant, 6 years). People who have never faced unemployment.
And in terms of pilot employment, I only know of 4 job successes out of over 50 self sponsored graduates in the last twelve months (of the people I know). WTC has only accelerated the gloom. I cannot see this all blowing over in the next few weeks, even months. Not with Bush declaring war on every news bulletin.
And where BA goes, others follow.
At my dads work (long established international IT company) whole floors of workers layed off EVERY week. Three weeks ago he was shown the door (after 13 years service) with all his team. My sisters job is now set to fold (specialist HR consultant, 6 years). People who have never faced unemployment.
And in terms of pilot employment, I only know of 4 job successes out of over 50 self sponsored graduates in the last twelve months (of the people I know). WTC has only accelerated the gloom. I cannot see this all blowing over in the next few weeks, even months. Not with Bush declaring war on every news bulletin.
And where BA goes, others follow.
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Dear Wannabes and coleagues,
it's not all gloom and doom...this morning I was a wannabe and this afternoon I got offered a pilot job. So, recruitment continues! The way to go is regional, these airlines aren't being hit as badly as the larger airlines since they don't depend on transatlantic passengers, the regional industry will not slow down in the way the larger airlines are. Also, all those pilots being layed off are mostly near-retirement pilots who will be nicely payed off to give up their jobs and aren't likely to take a job that will pay them peanuts compared to their normal salary. Of course, some of these pilots will enter the pilot market, but not as many as you think.
I've had many conversations on this topic with pilots lately and they tend to agree that although the market will slow down, there is still a demand for pilots.
My friends, don't give up, if you are studying, continue, if you are thinking of starting a course, do so because by the time you get your licence there will more than probably be jobs out there... it might take a while to find one, but best things come to those who wait(and prepare themselves). Never give up, never.
Yours, Sol
it's not all gloom and doom...this morning I was a wannabe and this afternoon I got offered a pilot job. So, recruitment continues! The way to go is regional, these airlines aren't being hit as badly as the larger airlines since they don't depend on transatlantic passengers, the regional industry will not slow down in the way the larger airlines are. Also, all those pilots being layed off are mostly near-retirement pilots who will be nicely payed off to give up their jobs and aren't likely to take a job that will pay them peanuts compared to their normal salary. Of course, some of these pilots will enter the pilot market, but not as many as you think.
I've had many conversations on this topic with pilots lately and they tend to agree that although the market will slow down, there is still a demand for pilots.
My friends, don't give up, if you are studying, continue, if you are thinking of starting a course, do so because by the time you get your licence there will more than probably be jobs out there... it might take a while to find one, but best things come to those who wait(and prepare themselves). Never give up, never.
Yours, Sol
