Growing Evidence That The Upturn Is Upon Us

[heli_port]

My advice is wait 2-3 years before to start your training ( ohh which happens to be the time it takes to do a degree..funny that ) and it wouldn't suprise me then if you have a good degree and some life experience you'll get an airline to sponsor you or at least offer a bond to train..

Open to comments!!

Agreed but for the older crowd thats approaching 30 it's a much tougher decision. As we come out of this mess the oil price will start to spike again due to demand! I don't think we will get back to the situation pre northern rock for allot longer, if we ever do. Do i think we'll see sponsorships again? No i think it will be a mentored type arragement afterall why should the airline take the risk when someone else can

MPL....mmm

[Lurking123]

Agreed but for the older crowd thats approaching 30 it's a much tougher decision.

hahahahaha, older approaching 30? I haven't laughed so much in a long time.

[ChrisLKKB]

Bloody nippers

[Grass strip basher]

There is always the chance that the extent of household de-leveraging that is required (i.e. paying down of debt) could mean this is a more prolonged downturn... 10-15 years of boom.... 5-10 years of bust (great depression I believe spanned the best part of 5 years if not more).

This 3-4 years is just one scenario and may well be optimistic. This does not look or feel like a 1990s type recession as the level of debt involved is just so much higher. My bet would be 5yrs till wanabees get a look in. 3-4yrs would be a good result.... 1-3 years is fantasy.

"mainstreet" is still just waking up to how nasty this could be. I heard that on the sidelines of the IMF conference last week there were whispers of a possible 4% contraction in the US next year.....

[chickentikkamasala]

This does not look or feel like a 1990s type recession as the level of debt involved is just so much higher.

Yes I agree. Why? because the contributary factors of past booms only led to small booms and hence small busts when the conditions for boom disappeared. For example the tech share mini-boom and the sale of shares from building societies turning into banks in the early 90's. In hindsight we should have seen these as mini indicators of what is wrong with the whole monetary system where credit is offered based on fictional capital.

I would say that the credit bubble has been growing since the conservatives took power in 1979 and it has only just burst now. We have witnessed mini-booms and mini-busts since that time. The bubble has in effect been inflating and then slightly deflating then inflating since 1979.

The bubble has fully burst now. Part of the trouble in this country started when the conservatives advocated that everyone had the right to own their own home. Yes of course this is true but not at any cost. Since then this has led to a false economy in this country led by debt and conversely manufacturing was allowed to ebb away which is the true source of wealth. Any long term healthy economy will only thrive on manufacturing and technical know how, that has been removed from this country which has been left with heresay and short term wealth created from the service industry.

The speech by David Cameron today spells it all out, however the conservatives cannot be absolved from their part in all this when they were in power.
A look at the Zeitgest film provided by spinnaker provides a fascinating insight in what is wrong with the global economy. It's quite a long film and while (as with spinnaker) I don't necessarily advocate all of the solutions to the problem from a practical sense the film I believe proves that this bubble which has now burst had been building since the late 70's.

The past recessions were born out of small contributary factors which quickly ebbed away providing their problems and quickly making way for recovery. This recession is born out of a far more serious matter which is the whole fundamental of credit, interest and the whole philosophy behind the monetary system. Hence the bust period will I believe be far longer than that of the past,especially when you factor in the rising economies demand for more raw materials, the increasing independence to volatile countries for energy and the stark need to for greener ways to produce energy.

A look a zeitgiest is very enlightening. Spinnaker your advise to watch this film has been the most useful contribution to this strand.
I think any wannabe would do well to watch this as this provides a good indicator as to the severity of the problem.

[heli_port]

I would say that the credit bubble has been growing since the conservatives took power in 1979 and it has only just burst now.

As long as you don't over inflate the bubble and keep an eye on it's pressure to ensure it doesn't burst normally it's ok, however Gordon Brown in his infinite wisdom took powers away from the BoE and gave them to the FSA which was a critical mistake thus ensuring the pressure was not being monitored and the bubble burst.

I have met many people from the FSA when i was working in a top 4 bank and let me tell you they couldn't punch themselves out of a paper bag. All we can do know is apply bandages to the wounds and learn from our mistakes although i'm sure in time there will be plenty of blame to go around.

[helimutt]

Is it just me, or is the price of oil as false as the value of houses? How can a commodity halve in value in less than a year except for traders creating false prices. Funny how we're not at half gas pump prices. We're heading in the right direction for now but hardly where we'd all like to be. add to that fact the government will prob increase fuel tax now, cos fuel's cheaper, and then they'll increase tax by at least 1% for everyone. I love the UK, don't you?

[Alex Whittingham]

Its not that odd when you consider how much of the pump price is tax. That hasn't changed.

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Littco,

I'm afraid you are wrong. You are assuming everyone is British, and will all be affected by the British economy.

Some countries govts help their young thrusters by offering educational loans (not commercial, bank loans, as in the UK). Also, it is much cheaper to train in other countries, and there are an awful lot of people without EU passports who have the right to live here in the UK and take those airline jobs. It was less than 10 years ago that BMI and EZY had roadshows in certain Southern Hemisphere countries.

Airlines will never sponsor again; the accountants will see to that.

[spinnaker]

Originally Posted by helimutt

Is it just me, or is the price of oil as false as the value of houses? ......

Yes, along with every quote on the stock market.

We have seen huge swings in prices that do not follow logic. Demand for oil when it was $147 a barrel is not that different than demand today and the price of Brent Crude $67 a barrel. + the possibility of OPEC reducing output. Demand is and will fall, but by that much!

Edit:

I forgot to mention that I found out the amount of what I suspect is the 'Toxic' debt that George Bush refers too: Globally $45 trillion in 2007. We don't know for sure, because its all outside of the regulated markets and complicated. Its the same stuff that brought down Lehman, Bear Stearns, AIG etc. Last week there was an auction of Leham swaps that realised 10% of there book value. Take that as an indication and apply it to the global debt = $40.5 trillion down the pan. So far the input from world central banks is a total of $2 trillion. $38.5 trillion to go.

[ChrisLKKB]

chickentikkamasala : bloody hell, Thatcher has been out of government for 18 years and you're still trying to blame her. I'm no fan of hers but the blame lays squarely at Gordon Browns feet, he got greedy, he let the banks get greedy and made the people greedy.

As heliport says, regulate the pressure in the bubble and it doesn't burst, turn your back on it and leave it all but unregulated and this is the result...no more boom and bust my eye

$45tr toxic debt...OH CRP !! Any chance the Middle East is liable for most of it ?

Is that all from the ethnic third world North America courtesey of Clinton ?

[spinnaker]

Originally Posted by ChrisLKKB

bloody hell, Thatcher has been out of government for 18 years and you're still trying to blame her. I'm no fan of hers but the blame lays squarely at Gordon Browns feet, he got greedy, he let the banks get greedy and made the people greedy.

Arguably we could say that we have been slowly building up to this since the end of WWII. The real momentum started with Thatchers monetarist policies, which set the scene for changes that the financial institutions could take advantage. So much so, that a new sector of the industry started up outside of the normal regulatory environment. During the last decade, the credit derivative markets have grown into the untamed monster that we have today. Bill Clinton took advantage with laws that not only allowed institutions to lend to people with poor credit ratings, but compelled them to do so. In 1995 the mother of all evils was invented, the Credit Default Swap, by Blythe Masters, a 34-year Cambridge graduate who was then the head of JP Morgan’s Global Credit Derivatives group. Her bosses were sold on the idea of this derivative, that fell out side of regulation. Oh boy have these derivatives mushroomed, and percolated into the very heart of the banking system. You name the bank, they have some (lots).

In a nutshell, these derivatives may have been used as part of bank reserves that are required under legislation. That's why banks wont lend to each other, because they have crap reserves, and all they have to offer in collateral is crap.

I digress. I can forgive Thatcher to an extent, the country was in an awful mess, and she had to somehow mobilise the countries finances. That is what she did. Successive governments became more liberal with fiscal policy and they liked the apparent wealth that is created. Have you noticed a coming together of politics between Labour and Conservative? Nothing to do with what is right, but more to do with what the banks wanted, government was in a hole and just kept digging, for decades. The current PM Gordon Brown, formarly the chancellor for the best part of the last decade, could and should have taken positive action. He did not. He must have known the time bomb was ticking. What did he do? Maybe he did try to somehow curb the madness of the derivative instrument. Maybe that is why he had heated arguments with the then PM Tony Blair. Maybe that is why he was breaking four mobile phone per week by throwing them, out of sheer frustration. We shall have to wait a few years to read Gordon Browns memoires. One thing is for sure, history will hold him responsible, for now anyway.

$45tr toxic debt...OH CRP !! Any chance the Middle East is liable for most of it ?

Nope.

---------------------------

George Bush seems confident that we have passed the critical stage, ie enough good money has been put in to counter the crap, we shall see.

I do know for sure, that for some time discussions have been taking place between government and financial sectors to bring the credit derivatives under proper regulation (governments wanted to do it, but never did). I know that last week, meetings have been taking place between treasury officials and the financial institutions to specifically address this issue. That should give some idea to the urgency.

It is just a crying shame that so many lives have, and will be ****** up, by politicians who allowed madmen (the bankers) to write their own rules for the asylum, and the politicians enshrined them in law.

Oh sorry, yes, Government did not write the rules, the bankers did.

[ChrisLKKB]

11 years presiding over the economy and the Bank of England and Gordon hasn't got one thing to crow about regarding any sort of attempt to mitigate this problem.

28 years ago it would have been impossible to tell what sort of monster the banking sector would become. 18 years on, if the chancelor of the day was ignorant to the problems that were arrising he'd be grossly incompetent, if he knew about the problems that were building, he'd be grossly negligant.

On top of the derivatives problem some are saying there is a huge problem with naked short selling and fraudulent share selling in the US

Deep Capture Blog The Sanity Check > Home

None the less, Warren Buffet is still bullish about the long term prospects for the economy saying most major US companies with be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now. So (hopefully) it can't be all bad.

[littco]

Nosponsor

I hear what you are saying but this is a world economic crisis.. No country is void from it, and just because a government gives educational loans do you think that suddenly lots of students in these countries are suddenly going to become pilots?! I'm afraid not..


All of the major countries of the world are affected by this and all will be faced with the same problem in years to come, just because training is cheaper in other countries doesn't mean they are suddenly going to have an influx of students training to become students. The Likes of Uk, France, Spain, Germany, Finalnd, Iceland, Italy, Switzerland, Portugal, Usa, Austrialia, New zealand, India, china, Hell you name them are all going to face economic recession and all going to student numbers decrease.

It will be interesting times, but please if you can show me a nation that is going to have queues of students in the UK in 4 years time taking all the new FATPL jobs then I will stand corrected, but I really can't see it.

[spinnaker]

I would certainly like to see some of the cabinet papers. If I were in the chancellors shoes and the Prime Minister prevented me from doing the right thing, I would resign. Gordon didn't.

[cumulus]

I guess another factor is that many of the recent wannabes have financed their training off the back off the recently deceased housing and credit bubble. Now, if that has gone for good, and say that a couple of integrated or modular training schools go bust in the coming recession, there could be a shortage of new pilots and a bottleneck in the means to train up new pilots in a few years time.

[boeing320]

chickentikamasala, you cant seriously blame Mrs T and the conservatives for the huge credit bubble and bust. the obscene increase in cheap money and lax financial regulation happened on labour's eleven and half year watch - period. it felt good at the time, so everyone kept voting for them, that was their concern after their miserable fortunes in the 70s and 80s.

browns claims of financial prudence and abolishing boom and bust were always ropey, now they're a bad joke.

it'll be interesting to see what happens to pilots prospects over the next couple of years - wanabee numbers will reduce due to lack of credit, general pessimism etc, so the supply will reduce. but, airlines will go bust or shrink or merge, maybe big ones. the companies i would not want to invest in right now are the big fight schools...

[no sponsor]

There are already hundreds of qualified ATPLf holders eligible to work in the UK who do not have an airline job. Someone estimated that CTC alone have 130 cadets in their system. How many will graduate from the Integrated schools this year? 200? + all the others from modular schools, probably at least another 100 + military. Enough to take the requirements for new pilots of many airlines for many years.

How many Australian, NZ, SA and Indians have the licence and can work here? Hundreds. Add to that all those EU member countries.

My airline has 300 pilots, for 32 aircraft, Monarch a similar number. There aren't the jobs available to absorb the number of 'eligible' candidates, and the boom times are unlikely to return in such a saturated airline market.

There ain't ever going to be a shortage of low-houred ATPLf holders. Never has, never will.

If you're waiting around for a sponsorship to start, you will be waiting for a very long time!

[chickentikkamasala]

chickentikamasala, you cant seriously blame Mrs T and the conservatives for the huge credit bubble and bust. the obscene increase in cheap money and lax financial regulation happened on labour's eleven and half year watch - period. it felt good at the time, so everyone kept voting for them, that was their concern after their miserable fortunes in the 70s and 80s.

browns claims of financial prudence and abolishing boom and bust were always ropey, now they're a bad joke.

Boeing320.

I seem to have been taken slightly out of context about Mrs T, I wasn't blaming her for the mess we are in now, merely pointing out that the decision to allow people to buy their council houses was part of the conditions which have contributed to what we have today.

I would be the first to say that this Government and Gordon Brown are a joke and have to go.

Today we have already seen that the people responsible for the mess we have today will not be held to account and they will continue to receive their bonuses in the form of cheap shares in their banks. In a few years time when the shares go in value up and they will be laughing their heads off at us. The FSA have been useless up to now and you can bet that they will fail to regulate this like they failed to do with the banks irresponsible attitude to lending.

In the end when the music stops it's always us the tax payer left without the chair. It will never change whilst the banks are calling the shots.

As said earlier Gordon Brown and this government are either in bed with the banks or they are incompetent, either way they have to go.

Although there is a global problem it still angers me that Gordon has managed to globalise the mistakes he has made and now walking around larger than life as a sort of financial saviour. Lets see what happens.

But he'll get away with it because there is still enough stupidity and apathy in this country for him to rely on.

[heli_port]

I think the oil price will be going back up sharpish soon because of the state of the middle eastern economies. They will cut production thus pushing up the price.